Burlington Stores (BURL) Risk Analysis

The retail sector is highly competitive, and retailers are constantly adjusting their business models, promotional activities and pricing strategies in response to changing conditions. We compete on the basis of a combination of factors, including, among others, price, breadth, quality and style of merchandise offered, in-store experience, level of customer service, ability to identify and respond to new and emerging fashion trends, brand image and scalability. We compete with a wide variety of retailers for customers, vendors, suitable store locations and personnel. Some of our competitors are larger than we are or have more experience than we do in selling certain product lines or through certain channels. Additionally, existing competitors may consolidate with other retailers, expand their merchandise offerings, expand their e-commerce capabilities, and/or add new sales channels, change their pricing strategies, or use technology more effectively than we do, including the use of artificial intelligence. More generally, consumer e-commerce spending may continue to increase, as it has in recent years, while our business is exclusively in brick-and-mortar stores. If we fail to compete effectively, our sales and results of operations could be adversely affected. In order to increase traffic and drive consumer spending, competitors, including department stores, mass merchants and specialty apparel stores, have been offering brand-name merchandise at substantial markdowns. Continuation of this trend, or the possible effect on consumer buying patterns that improving economic conditions could have, may cause consumer demand to shift from off-price retailers to other retailers, which could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations. Certain traditional, full-price retail chains have developed off-price concepts, which may directly compete with our business. Our competitors, including such retail chains, may seek to emulate facets of our business strategy, which could result in a reduction of any competitive advantage or special appeal that we might possess. In addition, most of our products are sold to us on a non-exclusive basis. As a result, our current and future competitors may be able to duplicate or improve on some or all of our product offerings that we believe are important in differentiating our stores. If our competitors were to duplicate or improve on some or all of our in-store experience or product offerings, obtaining the products we sell may become increasingly difficult, competition for customers may increase, and our competitive position and our business could suffer.

Building brand reputation is important to our continuing success. Our reputation is partially based on perceptions of various subjective qualities and overall integrity. Any incident that erodes the trust or confidence of our customers or the general public could adversely affect our reputation and business, particularly if the incident results in significant adverse publicity or governmental inquiry. Such an incident could also include alleged acts or omissions by or situations involving our vendors (or their contractors or subcontractors), the landlords for our stores, or our associates outside of work, and may pertain to social or political issues or protests largely unrelated to our business. In addition, information concerning us, whether or not true, may be instantly and easily posted on social media platforms and similar devices at any time, which information may be adverse to our reputation or business. The harm may be immediate without affording us an opportunity for redress or correction. Damage to our reputation in any form could result in declines in customer loyalty and sales, affect our vendor relationships, development opportunities and associate retention, and otherwise adversely affect our business.

Various governmental authorities in the jurisdictions where we do business regulate the safety of the merchandise we sell to consumers. Regulations and standards in this area, including those related to the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act of 2008, state regulations like California's Proposition 65, and similar legislation, impose restrictions and requirements on the merchandise we sell in our stores. These regulations change from time to time as new federal, state or local regulations are enacted. If we or our merchandise vendors are unable to comply with regulatory requirements on a timely basis or at all, or to adequately monitor new regulations that may apply to existing or new merchandise categories, significant fines or penalties could be incurred or we could have to curtail some aspects of our sales or operations, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial results. We rely on our vendors to provide quality merchandise that complies with applicable product safety laws and other applicable laws, but they may not comply with their obligations to do so. Although our arrangements with our vendors frequently provide for indemnification for product liabilities, the vendors may fail to honor those obligations to an extent we consider sufficient or at all. Issues with the safety of merchandise, and issues with the authenticity of merchandise, or customer concerns about such issues, regardless of our fault, could cause damage to our reputation and could result in lost sales, uninsured product liability claims or losses, merchandise recalls and increased costs, and regulatory, civil or criminal fines or penalties, any of which could have a material adverse effect on our financial results. An unfavorable, uncertain or volatile economic environment, as we have experienced recently as a result of inflation, rising interest rates and supply chain disruptions, among other things, has and may continue to cause an increase in inventory shrinkage. Risk of loss or theft of assets, including inventory shrinkage, is inherent in the retail business, and we experienced increased shrinkage, as well as increased loss prevention costs, in recent years. Loss or theft may be caused by error or misconduct of associates, customers, vendors, organized retail theft, or other third parties. Our inability to effectively prevent and/or minimize the loss or theft of assets, or to effectively reduce the impact of those losses, could adversely affect our financial performance. Additionally, acts of violence at, or threatened against, our stores, including active shooter situations, may, in addition to other operational impact, result in damage and restricted access to our stores and/or store closures for short or extended periods of time, all of which could materially adversely affect our financial performance.

We are primarily self-insured and we purchase insurance only for catastrophic types of events for such risks as workers' compensation, employment practices liability, employee health benefits, product and other general liability claims, among others. If we suffer a substantial loss that is not covered by commercial insurance or our self-insurance reserves, the loss and related expenses could harm our business and operating results.

We are subject to various legal and regulatory proceedings relating to our business, certain of which may involve jurisdictions with reputations for aggressive application of laws and procedures against corporate defendants. We are impacted by trends in litigation, such as representative claims under the California Private Attorneys' General Act and class action litigation brought under various consumer protection, employment, and privacy and information security laws. Accruals are established based on our best estimates of our potential liability. However, we cannot accurately predict the ultimate outcome of any such proceedings due to the inherent uncertainties of litigation. Regardless of the outcome or whether the claims are meritorious, legal and regulatory proceedings may require that we devote substantial time and expense to defend our Company. Unfavorable rulings could result in a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition or results of operations.

Consumer spending levels and shopping behaviors are affected by various economic conditions, which can affect our business or the retail industry generally as a result. These factors include, among other things, prevailing global economic conditions, inflation (including the costs of basic necessities and other goods), levels of employment, salaries and wage rates, prevailing interest rates, housing costs, energy costs, commodities pricing, income tax rates and policies, consumer confidence and consumer perception of economic conditions. In addition, consumer purchasing patterns may be influenced by consumers' disposable income, credit availability and debt levels. Slowdown in the U.S. economy, an uncertain global economic outlook, interest rate volatility, or a credit crisis could adversely affect consumer spending habits, resulting in lower net sales and profits than expected on a quarterly or annual basis. Consumer confidence is also affected by the domestic and international political situation and periods of social unrest. The occurrence of terrorist acts or other hostilities in or affecting the U.S. could lead to a decrease in spending by consumers. In addition, natural disasters, industrial accidents, acts of war or global international conflicts (such as the conflict in Ukraine or the Hamas-Israel war), and public health issues (such as pandemics or epidemics) could have the effect of disrupting supplies and raising prices globally which, in turn, may have adverse effects on the world and U.S. economies and lead to a downturn in consumer confidence and spending. Certain of these risks, such as risks arising from political volatility, may be enhanced in 2024 and other election years. We have also experienced inflationary pressure in our supply chain and with respect to raw materials and finished goods to a greater extent than we have in recent years due to current economic conditions. There can be no assurance that we will be able to offset inflationary pressure and other fluctuations in costs in the future, or that consumer behavior or our business, operations, liquidity, and/or financial results, will not be negatively affected by continued inflation in the future. We may not be able to adequately increase our prices over time to offset increased costs, whether due to inflation or otherwise. Any decreases in consumer discretionary spending could result in a decrease in store traffic and same store sales, all of which could negatively affect the Company's business, operations, liquidity, financial results and/or stock price, particularly if consumer spending levels are depressed for a prolonged period of time.

We rely extensively on various information systems, including data centers, hardware, software and applications to manage many aspects of our business, including to process and record transactions in our stores, to enable effective communication systems, to plan and track inventory flow, to manage logistics and to generate performance and financial reports. In addition, some aspects of our business, like that of most retailers, involve the receipt, storage and transmission of customers' personal information and consumer preferences, as well as confidential information about our employees, our vendors and our Company, some of which is entrusted to third-party service providers and vendors. We are dependent on the integrity, security and consistent operations of these systems and related back-up systems, software, tools (including encryption technology) and monitoring to provide security and oversight for processing, transmission, storage and the protection of such confidential information. Like most major corporations, we, our customers and our third-party services providers face an evolving, increasing threat landscape in which cybercriminals, among others, employ a complex array of techniques designed to access personal and other information, including, for example, the use of fraudulent or stolen access credentials, malware, ransomware, phishing, denial of service and other types of attacks. Hardware, software or applications we develop or obtain from third parties may contain defects in design or manufacture or other problems that are not presently known and could unexpectedly compromise information security. In addition, our employees, contractors or third parties with which we do business or to which we outsource business operations may attempt to circumvent our security measures in order to misappropriate such information, and may purposefully or inadvertently cause a breach involving such information or become subject to various other cyber-crimes. Further, our computer systems and the third-party systems of our vendors are also subject to damage or interruption from a number of non-criminal causes, including power outages; computer and telecommunications failures; computer viruses; and design or usage errors by our employees or contractors. Moreover, the rapid evolution and increased adoption of artificial intelligence technologies may intensify our cybersecurity risks. If we or third parties with which we do business were to fall victim to successful cyber-attacks or experience other material cybersecurity incidents, including the loss of individually identifiable customer or other sensitive data, we may incur substantial costs and suffer other negative consequences, which may include: - remediation costs, such as liability for stolen assets or information, repairs of system damage or replacement of systems, and incentives to customers or business partners in an effort to maintain relationships after an attack;- increased cybersecurity protection costs, which may include the cost of continuing to make organizational changes, deploy additional personnel and protection technologies, train employees, and engage third party consultants;- lost revenues resulting from the unauthorized use of proprietary information or the failure to retain or attract customers following an attack;- litigation and legal risks, including regulatory actions by state and federal governmental authorities;- increased cybersecurity and other insurance premiums;- reputational damage that adversely affects customer or investor confidence; and - damage to our competitiveness, stock price, and long-term stockholder value. We employ various security measures and technologies to actively monitor, prevent and mitigate cyber-attacks. Despite advances in security hardware, software, and encryption technologies, the methods and tools used to obtain unauthorized access, disable or degrade service, or sabotage systems are constantly changing and evolving, and may be difficult to anticipate or detect, and there is no guarantee that the proactive measures we put in place will be adequate to safeguard against all data security breaches or misuses of data. As many of our non-store associates continue to work remotely, we face an increased risk due to the potential interruptions to internal or external information technology infrastructure as well as ongoing threats and attempts to breach our security networks. The Company carries information security risk insurance that is designed to mitigate against certain potential losses arising from a cybersecurity incident. However, there is no guarantee that this insurance coverage will be sufficient to cover all possible claims and we could suffer losses that could have a material adverse effect on our business. Although we endeavor to protect consumer identity and payment information through the implementation and modification of security technologies, processes and procedures, including training programs for employees to raise awareness about phishing, malware and other cyber risks, we could experience increased costs associated with maintaining these protections as threats of cyber-attacks increase in sophistication and complexity. In addition, there are inherent risks associated with modifying or replacing systems, and with new or changed relationships, including accurately capturing and maintaining data, realizing the expected benefit of the change and managing the potential disruption of the operation of the systems as the changes are implemented. Potential issues associated with implementing technology initiatives and the time and resources required to optimize the benefits of new elements of our systems and infrastructure could reduce the efficiency of our operations in the short term.