Retail Food Group (RFG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $109.81M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 102.08K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.26
• Revenue Growth: 21.87%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: AU
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 63
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 62,930,790
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 21,610
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 102,077
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.24
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $3.74
• Price Target Upside: 115.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

Retail Food Group shows some positive financial trends, particularly in revenue and gross profit margin improvements. However, profitability and cash flow consistency remain concerns. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and while the valuation seems reasonable, the lack of dividend yield is a negative for some investors. The overall score reflects the mix of recovery signs and ongoing challenges.

Retail Food Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Retail Food Group (RFG) is a global food and beverage company headquartered in Australia, primarily engaged in the development and management of franchise systems. The company operates across multiple sectors including coffee, bakery, and quick service restaurants, with a portfolio of well-known brands such as Gloria Jean's Coffees, Donut King, Brumby's Bakery, and Michel's Patisserie. RFG focuses on delivering high-quality food and beverage products to its customers through a network of franchised and company-owned outlets, both domestically and internationally.

How the Company Makes Money

Retail Food Group generates revenue primarily through its franchising model, where it earns income from franchise fees, royalties, and sales of products to franchisees. The company charges upfront fees for granting franchise rights and ongoing royalties based on a percentage of franchisee sales. Additionally, RFG supplies ingredients, consumables, and equipment to its franchisees, creating another revenue stream. The company also operates some outlets directly, generating income from direct sales. Strategic partnerships and supply agreements further bolster RFG's earnings by expanding its product offerings and market reach.

Retail Food Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Retail Food Group is experiencing a recovery phase with noticeable improvements in revenue growth and gross profit margins. Despite these strengths, the company faces challenges in sustaining profitability and maintaining consistent cash flow stability. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage and a healthy equity base, but the ROE remains low. Overall, while there are positive trends, the company needs to focus on improving profitability and cash flow consistency to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Retail Food Group has shown improvement in revenue with a growth rate of 12.4% from 2023 to 2024, which is a positive indicator. Gross profit margin improved significantly to 71.8% in 2024, up from 48.8% in 2023. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative EBIT margins in recent years, although there was a positive turnaround in net income in 2024, showing a net profit margin of 4.6%.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.55 in 2024, which indicates a moderate level of leverage. The equity ratio stands at 56.4%, reflecting a healthy proportion of equity financing. Return on equity (ROE) is 2.8% in 2024, which shows slight improvement but remains low, indicating limited effectiveness in generating profit from shareholders' equity.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow turned positive in 2024, showing a substantial recovery from negative figures in 2023, which is a good sign. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.78, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. However, historical fluctuations in cash flow metrics suggest some instability in cash flow management.

Breakdown
TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
136.81M	125.18M	111.37M	102.58M	109.10M	126.40M
	Gross Profit
76.14M	90.88M	54.38M	50.77M	52.19M	47.69M
	EBIT
9.74M	-1.90M	-13.21M	2.19M	9.03M	-10.79M
	EBITDA
24.90M	20.28M	1.42M	19.28M	24.52M	48.11M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
8.90M	5.79M	-8.95M	5.26M	1.46M	-3.99M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
13.18M	20.64M	22.26M	29.22M	34.65M	40.25M
	Total Assets
355.12M	368.74M	348.89M	350.08M	369.76M	437.50M
	Total Debt
0.00	113.62M	110.64M	128.42M	153.38M	177.66M
	Net Debt
-13.18M	93.00M	88.37M	99.20M	118.73M	137.42M
	Total Liabilities
119.78M	160.73M	149.18M	166.30M	191.91M	261.41M
	Stockholders Equity
235.34M	208.01M	199.71M	183.78M	177.86M	176.09M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
13.05M	10.32M	-4.93M	12.34M	8.41M	-5.79M
	Operating Cash Flow
18.06M	15.36M	-1.20M	15.43M	11.07M	-3.83M
	Investing Cash Flow
-4.38M	-9.91M	-2.21M	-828.00K	1.88M	-279.00K
	Financing Cash Flow
-13.23M	-7.09M	-3.61M	-20.24M	-18.43M	31.09M

Retail Food Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.74
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:RFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.89, below the 50-day MA of 1.96, and below the 200-day MA of 2.51, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.20 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:RFG.

Retail Food Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ING	76 Outperform	€1.28B	14.31	38.76%	6.00%	1.77%	-15.93%
CKF	68 Neutral	$1.01B	19.99	12.25%	3.40%	4.74%	57.58%
BGA	64 Neutral	AU$1.63B	47.50	3.35%	2.06%	4.28%	―
DMP	60 Neutral	$2.41B	145.52	2.09%	4.30%	-8.04%	-54.44%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$6.86B	11.61	3.16%	4.15%	2.41%	-21.45%
SHV	59 Neutral	AU$707.70M	392.13	0.34%	―	64.18%	―
RFG	53 Neutral	$109.81M	12.18	4.31%	―	21.87%	―

Retail Food Group Corporate Events

Retail Food Group Issues Unquoted Service Rights to Employees

Retail Food Group Limited announced the issuance of 29,385 unquoted service rights under an employee incentive scheme, effective March 18, 2025. This move is part of the company’s strategy to incentivize employees, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and aligning staff interests with corporate goals.

Retail Food Group Issues Performance Rights to Employees

Retail Food Group Limited has announced the issuance of 47,945 performance rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. These unquoted securities are not intended to be listed on the ASX, reflecting the company’s strategy to incentivize and retain key personnel, which could enhance operational performance and stakeholder value.

Soul Patts Increases Stake in Retail Food Group

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited (Soul Patts) has increased its voting power in Retail Food Group Limited to 9.37% from a previous 7.85%, following a share consolidation by RFG. This change in substantial holding may influence RFG’s strategic decisions and could impact shareholder dynamics, reflecting Soul Patts’ growing interest in the company’s operations.

Retail Food Group’s Director Acquires New Shares

Retail Food Group Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Director Jacinta Lee Caithness acquiring 5,500 ordinary shares on the open market, priced at $2.239242 per share. This purchase signifies potential confidence in the company’s future performance and may influence stakeholder perception positively.

Retail Food Group Expands with Strategic Share Issue and Firehouse Subs Launch

Retail Food Group Limited has issued 625,000 new shares to Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited as part of an investment agreement for the introduction of Firehouse Subs in Australia and adjustment of debt facility terms. This strategic move allows RFG to leverage its existing placement capacity and supports its growth plans, potentially enhancing its industry positioning and offering new opportunities for stakeholders.

Retail Food Group Announces New Share Issuance for Firehouse Subs Investment

Retail Food Group Limited has announced the issuance of 625,000 ordinary fully paid shares in connection with its investment in Firehouse Subs in Australia. This move is part of a strategic arrangement involving changes to covenants and other debt terms under a facility with Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited, potentially impacting the company’s financial structure and market positioning.

Retail Food Group to Launch Firehouse Subs in Australia

Retail Food Group Limited has announced the launch of Firehouse Subs in Australia, with the first restaurant expected to open in 2025. This expansion marks a significant step for RFG as it continues to strengthen its market presence in the food franchise industry and offer diversified options for Australian consumers.

Retail Food Group Unveils 1H25 Results with Expansion Plans

Retail Food Group Limited has released its 1H25 Results Presentation, as authorized by its Board of Directors. The announcement maintains transparency with stakeholders, potentially influencing the company’s operations and market positioning as it continues to manage a diverse portfolio of food and beverage brands and expands into new ventures such as Firehouse Subs in Australia.

Retail Food Group Reports Strong H1 FY25 Results and Introduces Firehouse Subs to Australia

Retail Food Group Limited reported a strong financial performance for the first half of FY25, with underlying EBITDA reaching $16.0 million, a 4.2% increase compared to the previous period. The company also announced an agreement to introduce the Firehouse Subs brand to Australia, planning to open 165 restaurants over the next decade. This strategic move aims to capitalize on the growing sandwich market, estimated to be worth over $1.7 billion, and is part of RFG’s broader strategy to enhance its market positioning. Additionally, the company showed resilience in challenging economic conditions by recording a 3.2% growth in domestic network sales and opening 25 new outlets while closing 17 underperforming ones, thereby improving overall network quality.

Retail Food Group Reports Significant Financial Growth

Retail Food Group Limited, a company operating in the food and beverage sector, reported a substantial improvement in its financial performance for the half-year ended December 27, 2024. The company’s revenue rose by 20.1% to A$69,597,000, with a significant 45.7% increase in reported EBITDA to A$16,841,000. This robust growth reflects effective cost management and strategic initiatives, positioning the company favorably in the market. Profit before income tax surged by 95.8% to A$10,067,000, highlighting a strong recovery and positive outlook for stakeholders.

Retail Food Group Announces FY25 Interim Results Release Date

Retail Food Group Limited has announced it will release its interim financial results for the first half of fiscal year 2025 on 19 February 2025. The announcement will be accompanied by a briefing session led by CEO Matt Marshall and CFO Rob Shore, aimed at providing insights to analysts and investors. This event underscores RFG’s commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.