Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $540.25M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.67M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 41.1
• Beta (1Y): 2.08
• Revenue Growth: 89.64%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 554
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 82,104,840
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,352,045
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,671,573
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.28
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 4.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $15.00
• Price Target Upside: 134.74% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

Aspen Aerogels demonstrates strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and improved profitability. However, the stock is experiencing technical weakness, and its high valuation presents potential risks. The cautious outlook for 2025 and halting of Plant II construction adds to uncertainty. While the company is well-positioned in its industry, investors should consider these risks alongside its financial strengths.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Aspen Aerogels is now positioned with a much less capital intensive business with a strong balance sheet, an outlook for improved cash generation, and a share buyback authorization hinted at in the near-term.

Financial performance

Aspen reported 4Q24 results that mostly beat consensus estimates, with total revenue up 46% annually and representing its fifth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA.

OEM partnerships

The 8th OEM award announced with Volvo trucks.

Negative Factors

Division growth concerns

There is a loss of conviction in the EV Thermal Barriers division's ability to sustain growth and margins.

EV market demand

Weaker EV demand results in a reset for 2025 with management electing to end construction at the Georgia plant.

Guidance and visibility

Aspen Aerogels guided revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and EPS below the Street for 1Q, and withheld providing guidance for FY25 citing lack of visibility into production demand.

Aspen Aerogels Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerogel insulation products primarily for use in the energy infrastructure and building materials markets in the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, and Latin America. The company offers PyroThin thermal barriers for use in lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles and energy storage industries; Pyrogel XTE that reduces the risk of corrosion under insulation in energy infrastructure operating systems; Pyrogel HPS for applications within the power generation market; Pyrogel XTF to provide protection against fire; Cryogel Z for sub-ambient and cryogenic applications in the energy infrastructure market; and Spaceloft Subsea for use in pipe-in-pipe applications in offshore oil production. It also offers Spaceloft Grey and Spaceloft A2 for use in the building materials market; and Cryogel X201, which is used in designing cold systems, such as refrigerated appliances, cold storage equipment, and aerospace systems. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Northborough, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Aspen Aerogels generates revenue through the sale of its proprietary aerogel insulation products. The company serves a diverse range of industries including oil and gas, petrochemical, building materials, and automotive sectors. Key revenue streams come from direct product sales to industrial customers and distributors. Aspen Aerogels also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with major industry players to expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings. The company's pricing strategy and revenue are influenced by factors such as raw material costs, manufacturing efficiencies, and market demand for energy-efficient insulation solutions.

Aspen Aerogels Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aspen Aerogels is on a positive financial trajectory, showing strong revenue growth and improved profitability metrics. While there is a solid equity base with low leverage, the company needs to focus on enhancing ROE and generating positive free cash flow to strengthen financial health further. The improvements in profitability and revenue growth are encouraging, positioning the company well within the construction industry.

Income Statement

Aspen Aerogels has shown significant improvement in its financial performance over the TTM. The gross profit margin stands at 40.4%, indicating efficient production cost management. The net profit margin has turned positive to 2.95% from negative figures in previous years, reflecting improved overall profitability. Revenue growth rate is robust at 89.6%, showcasing strong top-line growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are at 12.64% and 31.55% respectively, highlighting operational efficiency gains. Although past years showed losses, the current trajectory is positive.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial structure with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17, indicating conservative leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) at 2.17% shows an initial positive return, though still modest. The equity ratio is strong at 68.65%, signifying a solid equity base. The company has been able to maintain a healthy cash position, aiding in financial stability. However, the company should continue to focus on improving ROE to enhance shareholder value.

Cash Flow

Aspen Aerogels has demonstrated improved cash flow management. The free cash flow growth rate has improved but remains negative, indicating ongoing investments or working capital needs. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.74, suggesting reasonable cash generation relative to income. Despite negative free cash flow, the company has been able to finance its operations through positive financing cash flow, likely from equity or debt issuance. Continued focus on generating positive free cash flow is recommended.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
452.70M	238.72M	180.36M	121.62M	100.27M
	Gross Profit
182.90M	56.92M	4.98M	9.94M	14.59M
	EBIT
54.53M	-49.20M	-79.25M	-40.60M	-21.57M
	EBITDA
49.57M	-22.31M	-65.77M	-25.81M	-11.37M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
13.38M	-45.81M	-86.23M	-27.88M	-11.85M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
220.88M	139.72M	281.33M	76.56M	16.50M
	Total Assets
895.14M	703.05M	646.57M	182.95M	97.42M
	Total Debt
102.42M	138.77M	126.66M	15.24M	8.31M
	Net Debt
-118.46M	-951.00K	-154.68M	-61.33M	-8.19M
	Total Liabilities
280.44M	214.99M	203.23M	54.55M	29.57M
	Stockholders Equity
614.71M	488.06M	447.44M	128.41M	67.85M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-40.71M	-218.07M	-272.37M	-32.41M	-13.34M
	Operating Cash Flow
45.55M	-42.61M	-94.40M	-18.63M	-9.92M
	Investing Cash Flow
-86.26M	-175.46M	-177.97M	-13.78M	-3.42M
	Financing Cash Flow
122.02M	75.48M	478.37M	92.47M	26.20M

Aspen Aerogels Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.39
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASPN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.23, below the 50-day MA of 9.00, and below the 200-day MA of 17.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 29.43 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.17 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASPN.

Aspen Aerogels Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RPM	77 Outperform	$14.67B	22.54	25.61%	1.70%	0.12%	24.30%
OC	71 Outperform	$12.20B	19.36	12.63%	1.75%	13.41%	-44.36%
KOP	65 Neutral	$571.35M	11.33	10.61%	1.00%	-2.88%	-41.29%
PPG	65 Neutral	$24.39B	18.01	19.13%	2.50%	-4.59%	11.09%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$8.05B	13.60	4.04%	3.11%	3.70%	-14.19%
ASPN	61 Neutral	$540.25M	41.09	2.43%	―	89.64%	―
PRLB	61 Neutral	$866.58M	54.68	2.43%	―	-0.59%	-0.85%

Aspen Aerogels Corporate Events

Aspen Aerogels Achieves Financial Turnaround in FY 2024

Aspen Aerogels reported a significant financial turnaround in FY 2024 with revenues increasing by 90% to $452.7 million, and a net income of $13.4 million compared to a loss in the previous year. The company also secured a contract to supply PyroThin Thermal Barriers for Volvo Truck and optimized its manufacturing strategy by utilizing external facilities, halting the Statesboro plant project, and maximizing its existing plant’s capacity to meet growing demand.