Antero Resources (AR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.16B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.70M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 49.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.84
• Revenue Growth: 6.67%
• EPS Growth: 240.70%
• Country: US
• Employees: 616
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 54
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.78
• Shares Outstanding: 310,527,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,137,667
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,703,448
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.41
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.58
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.42
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.54
• 1Y Price Target: $47.13
• Price Target Upside: 31.10% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

Antero Resources scores a 67 due to strong cash flow and strategic financial maneuvers, as highlighted in their earnings call. However, the stock faces challenges with high leverage, valuation concerns, and mixed technical indicators. The positive earnings call offsets some financial and valuation risks, but ongoing market uncertainties and revenue volatility remain key considerations.

Positive Factors

Financial Strategy

The company generated $352 million in free cash flow in the quarter, which was used for debt reduction and share repurchases.

Pricing Strategy

AR has positioned its story to be the go-to name in a stronger natural gas and NGL pricing environment given its low gas price breakeven and light hedgebook.

Shareholder Returns

Antero Resources has repurchased a total of $92 million in shares year-to-date, indicating strong shareholder return strategies.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

AR reported subpar 1Q25 results with DCFPS, EBITDA and FCF coming in slightly below expectations on lower liquids volumes, higher net marketing expense and a higher overall operating cost structure.

Market Conditions

LPG prices have been hit by reduced China imports which was the main market for US producers.

Operational Performance

Early data indicates a decrease in 2025 well productivity from AR in SWPA after exceptional well productivity observed in the 2024 data.

Antero Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, natural gas liquids, and oil properties in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 502,000 net acres in the Appalachian Basin; and 174,000 net acres in the Upper Devonian Shale. The company also owned and operated 494 miles of gas gathering pipelines in the Appalachian Basin; and 21 compressor stations. It had estimated proved reserves of 17.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent, including 10.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas; 718 million barrels of assumed recovered ethane; 501 million barrels of primarily propane, isobutane, normal butane, and natural gasoline; and 36 million barrels of oil. The company was formerly known as Antero Resources Appalachian Corporation and changed its name to Antero Resources Corporation in June 2013. Antero Resources Corporation was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Antero Resources makes money through the production and sale of natural gas, NGLs, and oil. The company's revenue model is centered around the extraction and sale of these commodities from its extensive assets in the Appalachian Basin. Revenue is generated through the sale of natural gas and NGLs to a diverse customer base, including utilities, industrial customers, and other energy companies. Antero Resources also benefits from strategic midstream partnerships and joint ventures, which enhance its distribution capabilities and provide additional revenue streams through infrastructure and transportation services. Additionally, the company engages in hedging activities to manage commodity price risks, which can impact its overall earnings.

Antero Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Antero Resources shows strengths in cash flow management and a stable equity position. However, it faces challenges with revenue volatility and high leverage, and needs improvement in profitability and operational efficiency.

Income Statement

Antero Resources showed inconsistent revenue trends, with a significant drop from 2022 to 2024. Gross and net profit margins are volatile, with a recent net loss. EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined, indicating pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a stable equity position but a high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting significant leverage. The equity ratio indicates a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets. While the return on equity has been negative recently, the company maintains substantial asset backing.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains robust, supporting free cash flow despite recent net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating effective cash management. However, fluctuating cash flow trends pose a risk.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.62B	4.33B	4.28B	8.29B	5.79B	3.08B
Gross Profit	5.14B	4.00B	669.35M	4.62B	2.25B	-514.44M
EBITDA	1.08B	859.55M	1.23B	3.29B	699.51M	-592.73M
Net Income	28.95M	57.23M	242.92M	1.90B	-154.11M	-1.26B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.05B	13.01B	13.62B	14.12B	13.90B	13.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	0.00	0.00	-3.45B	-3.42B	-2.61B
Total Debt	3.81B	4.03B	4.51B	4.63B	5.55B	5.62B
Total Liabilities	5.64B	5.79B	6.41B	7.10B	7.83B	7.06B
Stockholders Equity	7.22B	7.02B	6.98B	6.75B	5.76B	5.77B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.03B	747.36M	827.20M	2.89B	1.55B	687.55M
Operating Cash Flow	1.05B	849.29M	994.72M	3.05B	1.66B	735.64M
Investing Cash Flow	-695.23M	-714.15M	-1.14B	-943.61M	-710.78M	-530.06M
Financing Cash Flow	-350.18M	-135.13M	146.05M	-2.11B	-949.33M	-205.58M

Antero Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 35.95
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.72, below the 50-day MA of 38.87, and above the 200-day MA of 35.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.94 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.55 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AR.

Antero Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PR	84 Outperform	$11.33B	8.74	14.35%	4.24%	37.00%	44.18%
DVN	79 Outperform	$21.81B	7.73	20.88%	2.83%	12.06%	-16.37%
OVV	77 Outperform	$10.90B	17.87	6.17%	2.86%	-14.46%	-67.20%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$15.42B	10.07	6.34%	5.16%	4.06%	-67.04%
AR	67 Neutral	$11.16B	49.64	3.21%	―	6.67%	240.70%
RRC	66 Neutral	$9.14B	34.30	6.96%	0.94%	11.88%	-43.44%
CRK	48 Neutral	$6.56B	―	-14.17%	0.66%	-1.73%	-608.98%

Antero Resources Corporate Events

Antero Resources Announces Redemption of Senior Notes

On February 18, 2025, Antero Resources Corporation announced the full redemption of its 8.375% senior notes due in 2026, amounting to $96.87 million. The redemption will occur on March 5, 2025, at a price of 102.094% of the principal plus accrued interest, potentially impacting its financial obligations and investor relations.