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Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP)
NYSE:AMBP
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Ardagh Metal Packaging
(NYSE:AMBP)
54Neutral
Positive Factors
Debt Management
A potential debt/equity swap as part of the capital restructuring could alleviate the need for a punitive dividend at AMBP, freeing up cash flow.
Management and Restructuring
Appointment of two new directors with extensive experience in dealing with distressed companies suggests potential for improved management and financial outcomes.
Negative Factors
Volume Performance
AMBP shares declined due to weaker than expected volumes driven by European shipment underperformance, North American energy drink category weakness, and continued volume underperformance vs. peers in Brazil.
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.69B
Dividend Yield13.99%
Average Volume (3M)1.66M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth2.00%
EPS Growth46.00%
CountryUS
Employees6,400
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength49
IndustryContainers & Packaging
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.04
Shares Outstanding597,699,600
10 Day Avg. Volume2,789,648
30 Day Avg. Volume1,657,455
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.36
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.59Price Target Upside25.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
Ardagh Metal Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGores Holdings V Inc is a blank check company.
How the Company Makes MoneyArdagh Metal Packaging generates revenue through the manufacturing and sale of metal beverage containers to a diverse range of clients in the beverage industry. The company's primary revenue streams include long-term supply agreements with major beverage companies and partnerships with regional producers. AMBP benefits from economies of scale and operational efficiency, which allows it to offer competitive pricing. Additional earnings are derived from its focus on sustainability, as environmentally conscious practices attract businesses looking to reduce their carbon footprint. The company's strategic investments in technology and recycling capabilities further enhance its profitability by reducing material costs and improving production efficiency.
Ardagh Metal Packaging Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Ardagh Metal Packaging exhibits moderate revenue growth and operational efficiency. However, consistent negative net income and high leverage reflect financial instability. The company generates strong operating cash flow and improving free cash flow, indicating effective cash management, but it must address its debt and equity challenges to enhance financial health.Income Statement
Ardagh Metal Packaging shows a moderate revenue growth trajectory with a 2% increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin improved to 12.8% in 2024, indicating better cost management. However, the company has struggled with profitability, evidenced by negative net income in recent years, resulting in a net profit margin of -0.06% in 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderately healthy at 4.1% and 12.8% respectively, highlighting some operational efficiency, though there's room for improvement.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio that is not calculable due to negative equity in 2024, indicating financial instability. The return on equity is also not meaningful due to negative equity. The equity ratio is negative, showing that liabilities exceed assets, which poses a risk to financial stability.45
Neutral
Cash Flow
The company's free cash flow grew by 11% from 2023 to 2024, demonstrating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not meaningful due to negative net income, but operating cash flow remains strong at $450 million. The free cash flow to net income ratio is similarly skewed by negative net income, but positive free cash flow suggests adequate cash management.70
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 4.91B | 4.81B | 4.69B | 4.05B | 3.45B | Gross Profit |
| 630.00M | 474.00M | 526.00M | 616.00M | 548.00M | EBIT |
| 202.00M | 76.00M | 375.00M | -21.00M | 210.00M | EBITDA |
| 629.00M | 508.00M | 747.00M | 281.00M | 542.00M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -3.00M | -50.00M | 237.00M | -210.00M | 111.00M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 602.00M | 434.00M | 550.00M | 460.00M | 254.00M | Total Assets |
| 5.46B | 5.67B | 5.87B | 5.33B | 4.25B | Total Debt |
| 3.90B | 3.73B | 3.59B | 2.89B | 2.83B | Net Debt |
| 3.30B | 3.30B | 3.04B | 2.43B | 2.58B | Total Liabilities |
| 5.60B | 5.56B | 5.41B | 5.04B | 4.21B | Stockholders Equity |
| -142.00M | 100.00M | 455.00M | 286.00M | 48.00M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 263.00M | 237.00M | -391.00M | -229.00M | 66.00M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 450.00M | 616.00M | 205.00M | 458.00M | 334.00M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -179.00M | -378.00M | -595.00M | -691.00M | -268.00M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -81.00M | -348.00M | 499.00M | 454.00M | -98.00M |
Ardagh Metal Packaging Technical Analysis
Negative
2.86
Price Trends
2.79
Positive
3.17
Negative
3.30
Negative
Market Momentum
0.02
Negative
50.85
Neutral
30.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMBP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.77, above the 50-day MA of 2.79, and below the 200-day MA of 3.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMBP.
Ardagh Metal Packaging Risk Analysis
Ardagh Metal Packaging disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ardagh Metal Packaging reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ardagh Metal Packaging Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $17.89B | 23.13 | 19.03% | 2.42% | 7.45% | 5.26% | |
68 Neutral | $4.65B | 28.92 | 6.42% | 4.40% | -6.93% | -65.66% | |
67 Neutral | $4.43B | 17.30 | 45.91% | 2.50% | -1.75% | -21.15% | |
60 Neutral | $12.39B | 10.47 | 1.07% | 3.58% | 1.64% | -18.33% | |
55 Neutral | $1.76B | ― | -7.89% | ― | -8.09% | -1.97% | |
54 Neutral | $1.69B | ― | -69.06% | 13.99% | 2.00% | 46.00% | |
43 Neutral | $15.24B | ― | 8.80% | 1.48% | -15.64% | -186.66% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging
2.82
-0.33
-10.48%
BALL
Ball
52.31
-12.34
-19.09%
OI
O-I Glass
11.44
-4.60
-28.68%
PKG
Packaging
197.45
15.35
8.43%
SEE
Sealed Air
30.26
-5.82
-16.13%
SON
Sonoco Products
46.51
-8.82
-15.94%
Ardagh Metal Packaging Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 27, 2025 | % Change Since: -1.72% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with notable achievements such as a double-digit adjusted EBITDA increase and strong European performance. However, challenges remain with revenue decreases in the Americas, particularly in Brazil, and headwinds in cost structures. Sustainability progress and improved liquidity were positive aspects, but softness in certain categories and regions presents ongoing challenges.Highlights
Double-Digit Adjusted EBITDA Increase
Delivered a double-digit adjusted EBITDA increase, underpinned by 3% growth in global volumes for 2024.
Strong European Performance
Europe's adjusted EBITDA increased by 81% to $56 million due to positive volume growth and stronger input cost recovery.
Improved Liquidity and Reduced Leverage
Ended the year with nearly $1 billion of liquidity and reduced net leverage ratio of 4.9 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA.
Sustainability Progress
Strong progress towards sustainability agenda, with scope three emissions below 2030 target level in 2023.
Lowlights
Revenue Decrease in Americas
Fourth quarter revenue in Americas decreased by 7% to $653 million due to unfavorable volume mix effects.
Challenges in Brazil
Fourth quarter beverage can shipments in Brazil decreased by 15%, primarily due to a specific customer mix billing location issue.
Softness in North American Energy Category
Experienced softness in the North American energy category, impacting adjusted EBITDA.
PPI and Conversion Cost Headwinds
Faced PPI headwinds and higher aluminum conversion costs, particularly affecting European operations.
Company Guidance
During the Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. fourth quarter 2024 results call, the company provided guidance for 2025, projecting global shipment growth of 2% to 3% and an adjusted EBITDA range of $675 million to $695 million. For the fourth quarter of 2024, adjusted EBITDA grew by 11% to $164 million, driven by higher-than-forecast sales volumes and production in Europe. The company ended the year with nearly $1 billion in liquidity and a net leverage ratio of 4.9 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA. They anticipate first quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be between $140 million and $145 million, surpassing the previous year's $132 million on a constant currency basis. Despite some inflationary pressures and currency headwinds in Europe, Ardagh expects to offset these challenges through increased shipments and improved capacity utilization. Additionally, they plan to continue their sustainability initiatives, having already achieved emissions below their 2030 target in 2023.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.