Expense ManagementThere are higher California Wildfire losses in 2025, a higher auto expense ratio run rate due to higher advertising, and lower net investment income.
Natural DisastersThe company expects to incur $1.1bn in pre-tax losses related to the California wildfires.
Retention ChallengesAllstate's stock is underperforming despite a solid margin print and PIF that was better than feared, perhaps due to management being somewhat more cautious about continued lingering retention impacts in New York and Jersey.