Alico (ALCO) AI Stock Analysis

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Alico

(NASDAQ:ALCO)

55Neutral

Alico's overall stock score reflects a balanced outlook with significant challenges and strategic opportunities. Financial performance pressures, including operational inefficiencies and cash flow issues, weigh heavily. However, the company's strategic transformation and improved liquidity provide a positive outlook. Technical indicators show moderate strength, while valuation remains a concern due to negative earnings. Overall, Alico's strategic shift and financial adjustments are promising, yet substantial risks remain.

Alico (ALCO) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$220.04M

Dividend Yield0.69%

Average Volume (3M)60.59K

Price to Earnings (P/E)33.0

Beta (1Y)0.33

Revenue Growth14.59%

EPS Growth-194.05%

CountryUS

Employees199

SectorUtilities

Sector Strength87

IndustryAgricultural Farm Products

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-5.92

Shares Outstanding7,637,657

10 Day Avg. Volume78,451

30 Day Avg. Volume60,590

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.12

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)4.44

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-7.20

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$35.00

Price Target Upside21.49% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

Alico Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAlico, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an agribusiness and land management company in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Alico Citrus, and Land Management and Other Operations. The Alico Citrus segment cultivates citrus trees to produce citrus for delivery to the processed and fresh citrus markets. The Land Management and Other Operations segment owns and manages land in Collier, Glades, and Hendry Counties; and leasing of land for recreational and grazing purposes, conservation, and mining activities. As of September 30, 2021, it had 83,000 acres of land situated in eight counties in Florida, which include the Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, and Polk. The company was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Fort Myers, Florida.

How the Company Makes MoneyAlico makes money primarily through the sale of citrus products, which include fresh fruit and citrus by-products. The company generates revenue by selling these products to citrus processors who then manufacture orange juice and other related products. Additionally, Alico earns income through its Land Management and Other Operations by leasing land for various uses such as grazing and farming, as well as engaging in land conservation programs that may provide tax incentives or government payments. Partnerships with citrus processors and participation in government conservation initiatives are significant factors contributing to Alico's earnings.

Alico Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alico's financial health is under pressure, with significant profitability issues, high leverage, and cash flow constraints. The income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow analysis reflect operational inefficiencies and financial challenges, impacting its growth potential.

Income Statement

Negative

The company's income statement shows significant challenges with profitability, as evidenced by negative gross profit and net profit margins in the TTM period. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a significant decline in recent years. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting a leveraged position. However, the company's equity ratio indicates a reasonable proportion of equity financing. Return on equity has been volatile, reflecting fluctuating net income levels.

Cash Flow

Negative

Cash flow analysis shows negative free cash flow growth, with operating cash flow consistently negative, impacting liquidity. The ratios of operating and free cash flow to net income highlight cash flow challenges despite occasional positive net income.

TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
49.55M	46.64M	39.85M	91.95M	108.56M	92.51M
	Gross Profit
-50.37M	-56.38M	6.45M	-14.77M	23.89M	17.92M
	EBIT
-60.75M	-67.45M	-4.20M	-24.84M	14.44M	6.92M
	EBITDA
-40.61M	29.50M	22.86M	31.51M	29.56M	51.88M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-45.14M	6.97M	1.83M	12.46M	34.86M	23.66M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
14.16M	3.15M	1.06M	865.00K	886.00K	3.16M
	Total Assets
191.89M	398.72M	428.35M	409.25M	433.22M	423.94M
	Total Debt
71.81M	92.12M	128.70M	110.88M	125.31M	150.04M
	Net Debt
61.79M	88.97M	127.64M	110.01M	124.42M	146.88M
	Total Liabilities
85.24M	142.42M	177.98M	160.39M	185.61M	202.16M
	Stockholders Equity
106.65M	251.16M	244.99M	243.74M	242.20M	216.34M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-41.95M	-48.37M	-22.91M	-14.34M	-24.73M	-21.11M
	Operating Cash Flow
-24.93M	-30.50M	-6.25M	6.52M	16.50M	1.05M
	Investing Cash Flow
-10.06M	68.18M	-4.12M	22.47M	-3.27M	9.49M
	Financing Cash Flow
18.88M	-37.98M	13.20M	-29.01M	-32.04M	-14.69M

Alico Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price28.81

Price Trends

50DMA

29.36

Negative

100DMA

28.54

Positive

200DMA

27.76

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.09

Negative

RSI

51.73

Neutral

STOCH

53.19

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 28.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.28, below the 50-day MA of 29.36, and above the 200-day MA of 27.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALCO.

Alico Risk Analysis

Alico disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alico reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Alico Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CALM	82 Outperform	$4.86B	4.89	48.27%	4.32%	60.00%	259.01%
AGRO	71 Outperform	$1.12B	12.48	7.11%	3.05%	18.45%	-57.55%
LND	66 Neutral	$372.61M	7.37	13.83%	6.56%	-8.21%	-1.83%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$11.90B	15.77	6.20%	4.52%	5.53%	-8.93%
LMNR	57 Neutral	$299.55M	39.97	4.34%	1.81%	2.39%	―
ALCO	55 Neutral	$220.04M	32.96	-17.05%	0.69%	14.59%	-194.05%

* Utilities Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ALCO

Alico

28.81

2.05

7.66%

AGRO

Adecoagro SA

11.23

0.78

7.46%

CALM

Cal-Maine Foods

98.99

41.79

73.06%

LMNR

Limoneira Co

16.60

-2.24

-11.89%

AFRI

Forafric Global

8.75

-1.52

-14.80%

LND

BrasilAgro Cia Brasileira de Propriedades Agricolas

3.90

-0.58

-12.95%

Alico Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 12, 2025 | % Change Since: -4.29% | Next Earnings Date: May 12, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call detailed a strategic shift away from citrus production to focus on alternative agricultural operations and land monetization. While the company has faced significant challenges in citrus production due to disease and environmental factors, resulting in a net loss, it has seen positive outcomes such as increased citrus pricing, land sale agreements, and an improved financial position with extended credit facilities.

Highlights

Strategic Transformation Announcement

Alico announced a strategic transformation to focus on alternative agricultural operations and strategic land monetization, moving away from citrus production due to economic and environmental challenges.

Increase in Citrus Price Per Pound Solid

Despite a decrease in production, the price per pound solid increased by 38.9% due to a new agreement with Tropicana, leading to a $2.5 million increase in revenue.

Land Sales and Financial Strengthening

Alico is in the process of closing land sales expected to generate approximately $20 million in proceeds this fiscal year, enhancing liquidity and financial flexibility.

Improved Adjusted EBITDA

Adjusted EBITDA was $700,000 in the first fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2024, compared to a loss of $2.3 million in the prior year.

Extension of Credit Facility

Alico extended its credit agreement with MetLife, providing a revolving line of credit until May 1, 2034, demonstrating financial flexibility and confidence from lenders.

Lowlights

Decline in Citrus Production

Citrus production declined approximately 73% over the last 10 years due to citrus greening disease and environmental factors, including multiple hurricanes.

Net Loss in First Fiscal Quarter

The company reported a net loss attributable to Alico common shareholders of $9.2 million for the first fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2024.

Decreased Harvest Volume

Harvest volumes for fiscal 2025 are expected to be lower compared to 2024 due to the effects of greening and Hurricane Milton.

Company Guidance

During Alico's first-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company emphasized its strategic transformation, highlighting a shift from citrus production to diversified agricultural operations and land monetization. Alico plans to transition approximately 25% of its 53,371 Florida acres to non-agricultural uses, while maintaining 75% for agricultural purposes. Despite a 73% decline in citrus production over the past decade due to citrus greening and environmental challenges, the company reported a 38.9% increase in revenue per pound solid, driven by a new Tropicana agreement. Alico anticipates $20 million in land sale proceeds in fiscal 2025, with expected cash flow sufficiency to cover operating expenses through 2027. The company holds $73.5 million in available credit and aims to leverage conservation programs to enhance environmental outcomes. Alico's strategic shift is projected to unlock property values between $650 million and $750 million, positioning the company for sustained profitability.

Alico Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Alico Shareholders Approve Stock Plan Extension and Board Elections

Neutral

Feb 28, 2025

On February 28, 2025, Alico, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where key decisions were made regarding the company’s governance and incentive plans. The shareholders approved the amendment and restatement of the Alico, Inc. Stock Incentive Plan of 2015, extending its term through December 17, 2035. Additionally, the election of eight directors to the board and the ratification of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2025, were confirmed.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.