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Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI)
NYSE:AESI
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Atlas Energy Solutions
(NYSE:AESI)
66Neutral
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
The Moser acquisition is expected to add $40-45 million of EBITDA in 2025 and more than $50 million in 2026, indicating strong financial growth.
Growth Opportunities
Atlas Energy Solutions is expanding into high growth distributed power markets with 212MW of natural gas-powered assets, focusing on oil & gas field operations.
Market Strategy
Atlas Energy Solutions is transforming into a diversified energy solutions company, moving beyond just a Permian frac sand logistics provider.
Negative Factors
Earnings Risks
Concerns are raised about downward earnings revision risk in the most commoditized part of the market, affecting investor confidence.
Market Challenges
There are risks to Power Services margins due to MW oversupply and potential lack of adoption of autonomous trucking and multi-trailers.
Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.17B
Dividend Yield4.94%
Average Volume (3M)1.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.4
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth71.99%
EPS Growth-48.41%
CountryUS
Employees1,143
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength87
IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.54
Shares Outstanding121,740,090
10 Day Avg. Volume1,941,802
30 Day Avg. Volume1,648,266
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)2.09
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)7.80
P/FCF Ratio6.90
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$22.50Price Target Upside26.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
Atlas Energy Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAtlas Energy Solutions Inc. provides proppant and logistics services to the oil and natural gas industry within the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. The company was founded in 2017 and is based in Austin, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyAtlas Energy Solutions generates revenue through various streams primarily centered around its core offerings in the energy sector. The company earns income by providing specialized energy solutions and technologies that improve the efficiency of energy production and management. These solutions may include advanced software, equipment, and consulting services tailored to the specific needs of their clients. Additionally, AESI may engage in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other industry players to expand their market reach and enhance their service offerings. Revenue is also generated from long-term contracts with clients, which ensure a steady income flow and foster ongoing business relationships. The company's focus on innovation and sustainability likely positions it to benefit from the growing demand for environmentally friendly energy practices.
Atlas Energy Solutions Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Atlas Energy Solutions exhibits strong revenue growth and profitability improvements, supported by a stable balance sheet with moderate leverage. Key challenges include managing declining gross profit margins and negative free cash flows due to significant capital spending. Overall, the financial health is robust but requires careful cash flow management to sustain growth.Income Statement
Atlas Energy Solutions has shown significant revenue growth over the years, with a strong improvement in gross profit margin and net profit margin from previous periods. The company has demonstrated consistent EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating stable operational efficiency. However, the decline in gross profit from 2023 to 2024 suggests potential cost management challenges.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a healthy equity position with a strong equity ratio, indicating high asset backing by equity. The debt-to-equity ratio is low, which signifies moderate leverage and reduced financial risk. However, the decrease in cash and short-term investments over time might pose liquidity concerns in the future.80
Positive
Cash Flow
The company has experienced fluctuations in free cash flow, with negative free cash flow in recent years due to high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains favorable, suggesting good cash generation from operations relative to earnings. The consistent negative free cash flow may, however, indicate potential cash management issues.65
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 1.06B | 613.96M | 482.72M | 172.40M | 111.77M | Gross Profit |
| 232.01M | 313.77M | 256.31M | 64.07M | 17.77M | EBIT |
| 113.88M | 265.13M | 231.99M | 47.00M | -1.23M | EBITDA |
| 113.88M | 307.16M | 262.63M | 71.97M | 20.44M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 59.94M | 159.99M | 217.01M | 4.26M | -34.44M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 71.70M | 210.17M | 82.01M | 40.40M | 36.07M | Total Assets |
| 1.97B | 1.26B | 751.00M | 543.85M | 521.74M | Total Debt |
| 63.11M | 172.82M | 147.17M | 175.58M | 174.88M | Net Debt |
| -8.60M | -37.35M | 65.16M | 135.18M | 138.81M | Total Liabilities |
| 936.10M | 393.86M | 239.64M | 205.15M | 190.04M | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.04B | 867.82M | 84.72M | -87.26M | -81.52M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -117.52M | -66.46M | 116.42M | 1.99M | 2.95M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 256.46M | 299.03M | 206.01M | 21.36M | 12.49M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -512.71M | -365.49M | -89.59M | -19.37M | -9.53M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 117.78M | 194.62M | -74.81M | 2.34M | 11.83M |
Atlas Energy Solutions Technical Analysis
Negative
17.80
Price Trends
20.41
Negative
21.12
Negative
20.57
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.53
Negative
37.44
Neutral
39.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AESI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.91, below the 50-day MA of 20.41, and below the 200-day MA of 20.57, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AESI.
Atlas Energy Solutions Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Performance Comparison
AESI
Atlas Energy Solutions
17.80
-3.86
-17.82%
HAL
Halliburton
25.07
-13.95
-35.75%
SLB
Schlumberger
41.88
-11.92
-22.16%
Atlas Energy Solutions Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 24, 2025 | % Change Since: -13.59% | Next Earnings Date: May 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements with the Dune Express and autonomous trucking projects, alongside a strategic acquisition in Mosier Energy Systems. Despite facing seasonal slowdowns and pricing pressures, the company demonstrated strong growth potential and commitment to shareholder returns. The sentiment is bolstered by operational advancements and increasing market share in key segments.Highlights
Dune Express Achievements
Successfully commenced commercial delivery and achieved significant operational milestones with the Dune Express, the second longest conveyor ever built, which is expected to reach full capacity utilization by midyear.
Autonomous Trucking Progress
Initiated commercial driverless delivery operations using Kodiak-enabled autonomous trucks, completing approximately 300 deliveries by the end of the month.
Increased Productive Capacity
Productive capacity nearly two and a half times larger since IPO, with significant improvements in logistics operations and expansion in wet sand offerings.
Mosier Energy Systems Acquisition
Successfully acquired Mosier Energy Systems, enhancing growth opportunities and cash flow stability, with plans to expand fleet from 212 MW to 310 MW by 2026.
Dividend Increase
Announced a 4% increase to quarterly dividend, representing a 67% increase from initial dividend, reinforcing commitment to shareholder returns.
Lowlights
Seasonal Slowdown Impact
Fourth quarter sales volumes declined sequentially to 5.1 million tons due to seasonal slowdown in Permian activity.
Spot Sand Price Lows
Spot sand prices fell to cyclical lows in the fourth quarter due to reduced customer demand and competitors' desperation pricing.
Elevated Operating Costs
Fourth quarter plant operating costs were $12.02 per ton, still elevated versus normalized levels due to lower volumes and optimization expenses.
Competitive Pricing Pressure
Faced aggressive pricing from competitors during RFP season, impacting market dynamics and contract negotiations.
Company Guidance
During the Atlas Energy Solutions conference call, the company highlighted several key metrics and developments for the upcoming year. For 2025, Atlas anticipates a transformative year, focusing on reaching full utilization of the Dune Express by midyear. They have already achieved significant milestones, such as delivering 100 loads of proppants with autonomous trucks and increasing their productive capacity to nearly two and a half times since their IPO. The company also announced a 4% increase in their quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share. Financially, Atlas reported an adjusted EBITDA of $63.2 million for the fourth quarter of 2024, with total sales reaching $271.3 million. They expect to sell over 25 million tons of sand in 2025, up from around 20 million tons in 2024, and project full-year adjusted EBITDA to reflect contributions from a new acquisition, Mosier Energy Systems, amounting to 22 million contracted tons already, with expectations to surpass 25 million soon. Additionally, CapEx for 2025 is estimated at $115 million, with a focus on expanding the Mosier platform and maintaining their proppant and logistics business.Atlas Energy Solutions Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Atlas Energy Solutions Announces $540M Refinancing Agreement
Neutral
Feb 24, 2025
On February 21, 2025, Atlas Energy Solutions announced a refinancing agreement with Stonebriar Commercial Finance for a $540 million term loan, which will be used to repay existing facilities and for general corporate purposes. Additionally, on February 24, 2025, the company entered into a registration rights agreement related to the Moser Acquisition, impacting its financial strategies and market operations.
M&A TransactionsFinancial Disclosures
Atlas Energy Solutions Acquires Moser Energy Systems
Positive
Feb 24, 2025
Atlas Energy Solutions reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, with total sales reaching $1.1 billion, a 72% increase from the previous year. The company completed the acquisition of Moser Energy Systems on February 24, 2025, for $220 million, enhancing its market position and providing a platform for future growth in distributed power solutions.
Private Placements and FinancingM&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Atlas Energy Solutions Upsizes Public Offering for Growth
Positive
Feb 3, 2025
On January 30, 2025, Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. announced an upsized underwritten public offering of 11,500,000 shares of common stock, which closed on February 3, 2025, raising approximately $254.1 million in net proceeds. The company intends to use these funds to repay debt, support the acquisition of Moser Engine Service, Inc., and for general corporate purposes, potentially enhancing its operational and financial positioning.
Private Placements and FinancingM&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Atlas Energy Plans Public Offering for Growth Initiatives
Positive
Jan 30, 2025
On January 30, 2025, Atlas Energy Solutions announced its intention to conduct a public offering of 10,000,000 shares of common stock, subject to market conditions. The proceeds from the offering are planned to repay debt, fund the acquisition of Moser Engine Service, Inc., and finance general corporate purposes. The Moser acquisition, expected to close in the first quarter of 2025, is not contingent on the offering. This move is anticipated to impact Atlas’s financial positioning and support its growth strategies.
M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Atlas Energy Solutions Acquires Moser Energy Systems
Positive
Jan 27, 2025
On January 27, 2025, Atlas Energy Solutions announced a definitive agreement to acquire Moser Energy Systems for $220 million, aiming to enhance its presence in distributed power markets. This acquisition is expected to diversify Atlas’s offerings, strengthen its market position, and improve cash flow generation, with the transaction anticipated to close by the end of the first quarter of 2025. The deal includes cash and stock consideration and is subject to customary closing conditions. The acquisition is projected to be immediately accretive, potentially generating $40-45 million in Adjusted EBITDA in 2025.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.