Uncertainty around the future of TikTok in the U.S. creates engagement and monetization opportunities for the likes of Meta Platforms (META), Pinterest (PINS) and Snapchat (SNAP), analysts have said.
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Whether or not TikTok is ultimately banned, Citi thinks its removal from the App Store will bring benefits to several rivals.
TikTok was initially banned and services removed for users in the U.S. before incoming president Trump issued a statement saying he would grant the social platform more time before going dark.
TikTok Winners
At stake is about one hour and a half of eyeball time that would go elsewhere.
On engagement, Citi says that it believes the primary beneficiaries of TikTok’s 96 minutes per user per day are its main short-form video peers, which include META’s Reels and Alphabet’s (GOOGL) YouTube Shorts.
On monetization, Citi believes advertisers are already diversifying away from TikTok to Meta and Alphabet, but SNAP, PINS and Reddit (RDDT) can also benefit.
META remains the top pick and Citi says the TikTok ban will provide “incremental tailwinds.”
Brian Nowak, a five-star rated analyst at Morgan Stanley, agrees. He raised his price target on the shares to $660 from $600 previously.
He argues that a TikTok ban in the U.S. could drive 1% to 9% upside to META’s Fiscal 2026 earnings. “Every 10% of TikTok’s U.S. time META captures would likely add $0.30 to $0.60 to EPS… depending on monetization level,” he wrote in a note to clients.
TikTok Uncertainty
TikTok’s parent company, Bytedance, ignored a law, upheld by the Supreme Court on Friday and coming into effect on Sunday, requiring it to sell its US operations to avoid a ban.
However, Trump later posted on his Truth Social platform that he would seek to delay the enforcement. “I will issue an executive order on Monday to extend the period of time before the law’s prohibitions take effect, so that we can make a deal to protect our national security,” he said.
The statement also indicated companies would not face any charges for keeping the app available. “There will be no liability for any company that helped keep TikTok from going dark before my order,” said President Trump.
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