Steel Dynamics (STLD) missed expectations on both the top and bottom line in the last quarter, with the company blaming a surge in cheap imports for its weaker-than-forecast performance while also signalling problems with competition will improve this year.
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As Donald Trump prepares tariffs on a range of countries and sectors, STLD said it hopes to see a decline in “unfairly traded steel imports” in 2025, citing the trade case the company initiated last year.
STLD is part of a group of U.S. steelmakers including Nucor (NUE) and U.S. Steel (X) that has pushed for antidumping legislation to combat cheap imports of corrosion-resistant steel products (CORE).
In September, at the urging of the industry, the U.S. Department of Commerce initiated antidumping investigations relating to CORE products coming from Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, the Netherlands, South Africa and others.
For its Fiscal third quarter, the company posted earnings per share of $1.36, below the anticipated $1.41, and revenue of $3.9 billion, falling short of the roughly $4 billion forecast.
Analysts at Jefferies maintained a Hold on the stock after the results, saying this figure fell short of its projection of $396 million and the consensus estimate of $399 million.
Trade and Tariff Implications for STLD
While the Commerce Department investigations proceed, President Trump’s economic policies, particularly those aimed at trade and tariffs, could also have a significant impact on STLD.
Despite some headwinds in 2024, the company’s steel operations achieved near-record annual shipments of 12.7 million tons and historically strong operating income of $1.6 billion, explained Mark D. Millett, Co-founder, Chairman, and CEO.
“However, steel imports of certain products, most notably coated flat rolled steels, increased significantly in 2024, negatively impacting the supply/demand balance, causing pricing pressure for flat rolled steel products,” he added.
More positively, he says the company expects to see “unfairly traded” steel imports decline in 2025, based on the recent CORE trade case initiated in late 2024.
Declining steel imports and steadily increasing North American steel demand provides a positive commercial environment for 2025, added Millet.
Is STLD a Good Stock to Buy?
Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on the stock, based on two Buys and five Holds. The average STLD price target of $139.50 implies around 13% upside. Shares of STLD have risen 7% in the last 12 months.
