XCel Brands (XELB) Risk Analysis

As a fashion company, we face intense competition from other domestic and foreign apparel, footwear, accessories, and jewelry manufacturers and retailers. Competition has and may continue to result in pricing pressures, reduced profit margins, lost market share, or failure to grow our market share, any of which could substantially harm our business and results of operations. Competition is based on many factors including, without limitation, the following: - establishing and maintaining favorable brand recognition;- developing products that appeal to consumers;- pricing products appropriately;- determining and maintaining product quality;- obtaining access to sufficient floor space in retail locations;- providing appropriate services and support to retailers;- maintaining and growing market share;- developing and maintaining a competitive e-commerce site;- hiring and retaining key employees; and - protecting intellectual property. Competition in the apparel, fashion and jewelry industries is intense and is dominated by a number of very large brands, many of which have longer operating histories, larger customer bases, more established relationships with a broader set of potential licensees, greater brand recognition, and greater financial, research and development, marketing, distribution, and other resources than we do. These capabilities of our competitors may allow them to better withstand downturns in the economy or apparel, fashion and jewelry industries. Any increased competition, or our failure to adequately address any of these competitive factors which we have seen from time to time, could result in reduced sales, which could adversely affect our business, financial condition, and operating results. Competition, along with such other factors as consolidation within the retail industry and changes in consumer spending patterns, could also result in significant pricing pressure and cause the sales environment to be more promotional, as it has been in recent years, impacting our financial results. If promotional pressure remains intense, either through actions of our competitors or through customer expectations, this may cause a further reduction in our sales and gross margins and could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and operating results.

A substantial portion of our revenue has been paid by Qurate, through the respective agreements with Qurate through QVC and HSN. During the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, Qurate accounted for approximately 34% and 44%, respectively, of our total net revenue. Because we are dependent on these agreements with Qurate for a significant portion of our revenues, if Qurate were to have financial difficulties, or if Qurate decides not to renew or extend its existing agreements with us, our revenue and cash flows could be reduced substantially. Our cash flow would also be significantly impacted if there were significant delays in our collection of receivables from Qurate. Additionally, we have limited control over the programming that Qurate devotes to our brands or its promotional sales with our brands (such as "Today's Special Value" sales). If Qurate reduces or modifies its programming or promotional sales related to our brands, our revenues and cash flows could be reduced substantially. In order to increase sales of a brand through Qurate, we generally require additional television programming time dedicated to the brand by Qurate. Qurate is not required to devote any minimum amount of programming time for any of our brands. Our Qurate revenues have declined since 2021, and there can be no guarantee that our Qurate revenues will grow in the future or that they will not decline further. Additionally, there can be no assurance that our other licensees will be able to generate sales of products under our brands or grow their existing sales of products under our brands, and if they do generate sales, there is no guarantee that they will not cause a decline in sales of products being sold through Qurate.

Certain of our licensees sell our branded products through major department, mass merchant, and specialty store chains. Continued consolidation in the retail industry, as well as store closures or retailers ceasing to do business, could negatively impact our business. Consolidation could also reduce the number of our customers and potential customers who can access our branded products. A store group could decide to close stores, decrease the amount of our branded product purchased from our licensees, modify the amount of floor space allocated to apparel in general or to our brands specifically, or focus on promoting private label products or national brand products for which it has exclusive rights rather than promoting our brands. Customers are also concentrating purchases among a narrowing group of vendors. These types of decisions could adversely affect our business.

While we are focused on growing our existing brands, we intend to selectively seek to acquire additional intellectual property, either directly or through the formation of joint ventures or collaborations. However, as our competitors continue to pursue a brand management model, acquisitions, joint ventures, and collaborations may become more expensive and suitable candidates could become more difficult to find. In addition, even if we successfully acquire additional intellectual property or the rights to use additional intellectual property, we may not be able to achieve or maintain profitability levels that justify our investment in, or realize planned benefits with respect to, those additional brands. Although we will seek to temper our acquisition, joint venture, and collaboration risks by following guidelines relating to purchase price and valuation, projected returns, existing strength of the brand, its diversification benefits to us, its potential licensing scale and creditworthiness of licensee base, acquisitions, joint ventures, and collaborations, whether they be of additional intellectual property assets or of the companies that own them, entail numerous risks, any of which could detrimentally affect our reputation, our results of operations, and/or the value of our common stock. These risks include, among others: - unanticipated costs associated with the target acquisition, joint venture, or collaboration, or its integration with our company;- our ability to identify or consummate additional quality business opportunities, including potential licenses and new product lines and markets;- negative effects on reported results of operations from acquisition related charges and costs, and amortization of acquired intangibles;- diversion of management's attention from other business concerns;- the challenges of maintaining focus on, and continuing to execute, core strategies and business plans as our brand and license portfolio grows and becomes more diversified;- adverse effects on existing licensing and other relationships;- potential difficulties associated with the retention of key employees, and difficulties, delays and unanticipated costs associated with the assimilation of personnel, operations, systems and cultures, which may be retained by us in connection with or as a result of our acquisitions;- risks of entering new domestic and international markets (whether it be with respect to new licensed product categories or new licensed product distribution channels) or markets in which we have limited prior experience; and - increased concentration in our revenues with one or more customers in the event that the brand has distribution channels in which we currently distribute products under one or more of our brands. When we acquire intellectual property assets or the companies that own them, or enter into joint ventures or collaborations, our due diligence reviews are subject to inherent uncertainties and may not reveal all potential risks. We may therefore fail to discover or inaccurately assess undisclosed or contingent liabilities, including liabilities for which we may have responsibility as a successor to the seller or the target company. As a successor, we may be responsible for any past or continuing violations of law by the seller or the target company. Although we will generally attempt to seek contractual protections through representations, warranties and indemnities, we cannot be sure that we will obtain such provisions or that such provisions will fully protect us from all unknown, contingent or other liabilities or costs. Finally, claims against us relating to any acquisition may necessitate our seeking claims against the seller for which the seller may not, or may not be able to, indemnify us or that may exceed the scope, duration or amount of the seller's indemnification obligations. Acquiring additional intellectual property could also have a significant effect on our financial position and could cause substantial fluctuations in our quarterly and yearly operating results. Acquisitions and joint ventures could result in the recording of significant goodwill and intangible assets on our financial statements, the amortization or impairment of which would reduce our reported earnings in subsequent years. No assurance can be given with respect to the timing, likelihood or financial or business effect of any possible transaction. Moreover, our ability to grow through the acquisition of additional intellectual property, joint ventures and collaborations will also depend on the availability of capital to complete the necessary acquisition arrangements. In the event that we are unable to obtain debt financing on acceptable terms for a particular transaction, we may elect to pursue the transaction through the issuance by us of shares of our common stock (and, in certain cases, convertible securities) as equity consideration, which could dilute our common stock and reduce our earnings per share, and any such dilution could reduce the market price of our common stock unless and until we were able to achieve revenue growth or cost savings and other business economies sufficient to offset the effect of such an issuance. Acquisitions of additional brands may also involve challenges related to integration into our existing operations, merging diverse cultures, and retaining key employees. Any failure to integrate additional brands successfully in the future may adversely impact our reputation and business. As a result, there is no guarantee that our stockholders will achieve greater returns as a result of any future acquisitions we complete.

We rely significantly on our information technology systems to effectively manage and maintain our operations, and internal reports. Any failure, inadequacy, or interruption of that infrastructure or security lapse (whether intentional or inadvertent) of that technology, including cybersecurity incidents or attacks, could harm our ability to operate our business effectively. Our investment in ORME also leverages certain artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, which ORME's technology partner licenses from several third parties including but not limited to Amazon and ChatGPT, and which technologies are nascent and rapidly evolving. In addition, our technology systems, including our cloud technologies, continue to increase in multitude and complexity, making them potentially vulnerable to breakdown, cyberattack, and other disruptions. Potential problems and interruptions associated with the implementation of new or upgraded technology systems or with maintenance or adequate support of existing systems could disrupt or reduce the efficiency of our operations and expose us to greater risk of security breaches. Cybersecurity incidents resulting in the failure of our enterprise resource planning system, production management, or other systems to operate effectively or to integrate with other systems, or a breach in security or other unauthorized access or unavailability of these systems or those of any third parties on whom we depend, have occurred in the past and may affect our ability in the future to manage and maintain our operations, internal reports, and result in reduced efficiency of our operations. As part of our business, we collect, store, and transmit large amounts of confidential information, proprietary data, intellectual property, and personal data. The information and data processed and stored in our technology systems, and those of our licensees, joint ventures, and other third parties on whom we depend to operate our business, may be vulnerable to loss, damage, denial-of-service, unauthorized access, or misappropriation. Data security incidents may be the result of unauthorized or unintended activity (or lack of activity) by our employees, contractors, or others with authorized access to our network or malware, hacking, business email compromise, phishing, ransomware, or other cyberattacks directed by third parties. While we have implemented measures to protect our information and data stored in our technology systems and those of the third parties that we rely on, our efforts may not be successful. In addition, employee error, malfeasance, or other errors in the storage, use, or transmission of any such information could result in a disclosure to third parties outside of our network. As a result, we could incur significant expenses addressing problems created by any such inadvertent disclosure or any security breaches of our network. We have experienced and may continue to experience cybersecurity incidents, including an unsuccessful ransomware attack in February 2024, although to our knowledge we have not experienced any material incident or interruption to date. If such a significant event were to occur, it could result in a material disruption of our business and commercial operations, including due to a loss, corruption, or unauthorized disclosure of our trade secrets, personal data, or other proprietary or sensitive information. Further, these cybersecurity incidents can lead to the public disclosure of personal information (including sensitive personal information) of our employees, customers, and others and result in demands for ransom or other forms of blackmail. Such attacks, including phishing attacks and attempts to misappropriate or compromise confidential or proprietary information or sabotage enterprise information technology systems, are of ever-increasing levels of sophistication and are made by groups and individuals with a wide range of motives (including industrial espionage) and expertise, including by organized criminal groups, "hacktivists," nation states, and others. Moreover, the costs to us to investigate and mitigate cybersecurity incidents could be significant. Any security breach that results in the unauthorized access, use, or disclosure of personal data may require us to notify individuals, governmental authorities, credit reporting agencies, or other parties pursuant to privacy and security laws and regulations or other obligations. Such a security compromise could harm our reputation, erode confidence in our information security measures, and lead to regulatory scrutiny. To the extent that any disruption or security breach resulted in a loss of, or damage to, our data or systems, or inappropriate disclosure of confidential, proprietary, or personal information, we could be exposed to a risk of loss, enforcement measures, penalties, fines, indemnification claims, litigation and potential civil or criminal liability, which could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. Not all our contracts contain limitations of liability, and even where they do, there can be no assurance that limitations of liability in our contracts are sufficient to protect us from liabilities, damages, or claims related to our data privacy and security obligations. We cannot be sure that our insurance coverage will be adequate or sufficient to protect us from or to mitigate liabilities arising out of our privacy and security practices, that such coverage will continue to be available on commercially reasonable terms or at all, or that such coverage will pay future claims. Further, the SEC has adopted new rules that require us to provide greater disclosures around proactive security protections that we employ and reactive issues (e.g., security incidents). Any such disclosures, including those under state data breach notification laws, can be costly, and the disclosures we make to comply with, or the failure to comply with, such requirements could lead to adverse consequences.

The success of our operations depends on consumer spending. Consumer spending is impacted by a number of factors which are beyond our control, including actual and perceived economic conditions affecting disposable consumer income (such as unemployment, wages, energy costs and consumer debt levels), customer traffic within shopping and selling environments, business conditions, interest rates and availability of credit and tax rates in the general economy and in the international, regional and local markets in which our products are sold and the impact of natural disasters and pandemics and disease outbreaks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Global economic conditions historically included significant recessionary pressures and declines in employment levels, disposable income and actual and/or perceived wealth and further declines in consumer confidence and economic growth. A depressed economic environment is often characterized by a decline in consumer discretionary spending and has disproportionately affected retailers and sellers of consumer goods, particularly those whose goods are viewed as discretionary or luxury purchases, including fashion apparel and accessories such as ours. Such factors as well as another shift towards recessionary conditions have in the past, and could in the future, devalue our brands, which could result in an impairment in its carrying value, which could be material, create downward pricing pressure on the products carrying our brands, and adversely impact our sales volumes and overall profitability. Further, economic and political volatility and declines in the value of foreign currencies could negatively impact the global economy as a whole and have a material adverse effect on the profitability and liquidity of our operations, as well as hinder our ability to grow through expansion in the international markets. In addition, domestic and international political situations also affect consumer confidence, including the threat, outbreak or escalation of terrorism, military conflicts or other hostilities around the world. Furthermore, changes in the credit and capital markets, including market disruptions, limited liquidity, and interest rate fluctuations, may increase the cost of financing or restrict our access to potential sources of capital for future acquisitions. The risks associated with our business are more acute during periods of economic slowdown or recession. Accordingly, any prolonged economic slowdown or a lengthy or severe recession with respect to either the U.S. or the global economy is likely to have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition, and business prospects.

Extreme weather events and changes in weather patterns can influence customer trends and shopping habits. Extended periods of unseasonably warm temperatures during the fall and winter seasons, or cool weather during the summer season, may diminish demand for our seasonal merchandise. Heavy snowfall, hurricanes or other severe weather events in the areas in which our retail stores and the retail stores of our wholesale customers are located may decrease customer traffic in those stores and reduce our sales and profitability. If severe weather events were to force closure of or disrupt operations at the distribution centers we use for our merchandise, we could incur higher costs and experience longer lead times to distribute our products to our retail stores, wholesale customers or digital channel customers. If prolonged, such extreme or unseasonable weather conditions could adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations.

Historically, the SEC has taken the position that Rule 144 under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Act, is not available for the resale of securities initially issued by companies that are, or previously were, shell companies (we were considered a shell company on and prior to September 29, 2011), to their promoters or affiliates despite technical compliance with the requirements of Rule 144. The SEC prohibits the use of Rule 144 for resale of securities issued by shell companies (other than business transaction related shell companies) or issuers that have been at any time previously a shell company. The SEC has provided an important exception to this prohibition, however, if the following conditions are met: the issuer of the securities that was formerly a shell company has ceased to be a shell company; the issuer of the securities is subject to the reporting requirements of Section 13 or 15(d) of the Exchange Act; the issuer of the securities has filed all Exchange Act reports and material required to be filed, as applicable, during the preceding 12 months (or such shorter period that the issuer was required to file such reports and materials), other than Form 8-K reports; and at least one year has elapsed from the time that the issuer filed current Form 10 type information with the SEC reflecting its status as an entity that is not a shell company. As such, due to the fact that we had been a shell company prior to September 2011, holders of "restricted securities" within the meaning of Rule 144, when reselling their shares pursuant to Rule 144, shall be subject to the conditions set forth herein.

Our licensees work with several manufacturers overseas, primarily located overseas, including in China and Thailand. A manufacturing contractor's failure to ship products to our licensees in a timely manner or to meet the required quality standards could cause the licensee to miss the delivery date requirements of its customers for those items or not have seasonal product available for a selling season. The failure to make timely deliveries may cause their customers to cancel orders, refuse to accept deliveries or demand reduced prices, any of which could reduce our licensing royalties, which could have a material adverse effect on us. As a result of the magnitude of our licensees' foreign sourcing, our business is subject to the following risks: - political and economic instability in countries or regions, especially Asia, including heightened terrorism and other security concerns, which could subject imported or exported goods to additional or more frequent inspections, leading to delays win deliveries or impoundment of goods;- imposition of regulations, quotas and other trade restrictions relating to imports, including quotas imposed by bilateral textile agreements between the U.S. and foreign countries;- currency exchange rates;- imposition of increased duties, taxes and other charges on imports;- pandemics and disease outbreaks such as COVID-19;- labor union strikes at ports through which our products enter the U.S.;- labor shortages in countries where contractors and suppliers are located;- restrictions on the transfer of funds to or from foreign countries;- disease epidemics and health-related concerns, which could result in closed factories, reduced workforces, scarcity of raw materials and scrutiny or embargoing of goods produced in infected areas;- the migration and development of manufacturing contractors, which could affect where our brands are or are planned to be produced;- increases in the costs of fuel, travel and transportation; and - violations by foreign contractors of labor and wage standards and resulting adverse publicity. If these risks limit or prevent our licensees from manufacturing products in any significant international market, prevent us from acquiring products from foreign suppliers, the production and sale of our brands be seriously disrupted until alternative suppliers are found or alternative markets are developed, which could negatively impact our business.