Valvoline (VVV) Risk Analysis

Valvoline operates in a highly competitive market, competing against a wide variety of companies across the automotive services industry. Competition is based on several key criteria, including brand recognition, quality, price, customer service, and the ability to bring innovative services to the marketplace. Competitors include international, national, regional and local automotive repair and maintenance shops, automobile dealerships, and oil change shops. Certain competitors are larger than Valvoline and have greater financial resources and more diversified portfolios, leading to greater operating and financial flexibility. As a result, these competitors may be better able to withstand adverse changes in conditions within the industry, market dynamics, the price of supplies or general economic conditions. In addition, competitors' pricing decisions could compel Valvoline to decrease its prices, which could negatively affect Valvoline's margins and profitability.

Demand for Valvoline's services may be affected by a number of factors it cannot control, including the number and age of vehicles in current service, regulation and legislation, technological advances in the automotive industry and changes in engine technology, including the adoption rate of electric or other alternative engine technologies, changing automotive OEM specifications and longer recommended intervals between services. In addition, during periods of declining economic conditions, including recessions, customers may defer vehicle maintenance. Similarly, increases in energy prices or other factors may cause miles driven to decline, resulting in less vehicle wear and tear and reducing demand for maintenance, which may lead to customers deferring or foregoing Valvoline's services. All of these factors, which impact metrics such as drain intervals and vehicles served per day, could result in a decline in the demand for Valvoline's services and adversely affect its sales, cash flows and overall financial condition.

Maintaining Valvoline's strong reputation with customers is a key component of its business. Liability claims, false advertising claims, service complaints, and governmental investigations could result in substantial and unexpected expenditures and affect consumer or customer confidence in Valvoline's services, which may materially and adversely affect its business operations, decrease sales and increase costs. Additionally, as customers are shifting to more environmentally-conscious electric and hybrid vehicles, the inability of Valvoline to continue its development of new services to adapt to those changing demands could affect the Company's reputation as an environmentally friendly choice for vehicle care and could reduce demand for its services. Further, legislators, customers, investors and other stakeholders are increasingly focusing on environmental, social and governance policies of companies. This focus could result in new or increased legislation or disclosure requirements. In the event that such requirements result in increased costs or a negative perception of the Company, there could be an adverse effect on the business or its results of operations. If allegations are made that Valvoline's automotive maintenance services were not provided in a manner consistent with its vision and values, the public may develop a negative perception of Valvoline, its brands, image and reputation. In addition, if Valvoline's franchise or Express Care operators experience service failures or do not successfully operate their service centers in a manner consistent with Valvoline's standards, its brand, image and reputation could be harmed, which in turn could negatively impact its business and operating results. A negative public perception of Valvoline's brands, whether justified or not, could impair its reputation, involve it in litigation, damage its brand equity and have a material adverse effect on its business. In addition, damage to the reputation of Valvoline's competitors or others in the automotive maintenance services industry could negatively impact Valvoline's reputation and business. In connection with the sale of Global Products, the parties entered into a brand agreement (the "Brand Agreement"). Pursuant to the Brand Agreement, Valvoline retains ownership of the Valvoline brand for generally all retail services purposes, and Global Products owns the brand for all product uses. The brand sharing arrangement may increase the risk of inconsistency in its use, messaging, or overall damage to the brand, which could have an adverse impact on Valvoline's reputation and business and result in lengthy and expensive litigation or settlements.

Valvoline's efforts to respond to changes in customer demand in a timely and cost-efficient manner to drive growth could be adversely affected by difficulties or delays in service innovation, including the inability to identify or gain market acceptance of new service techniques. Due to the rigorous development process and intense competition, there can be no assurance that any of the services Valvoline is currently developing, or could develop in the future, will achieve substantial commercial success. Moreover, Valvoline may experience operating losses for new services after they are introduced and commercialized because of start-up costs or lack of demand. The automotive maintenance service industry is subject to periodic technological change and ongoing product improvements. The adoption of electric vehicles is increasing, which reduces demand for lubricant services, but expands the opportunity for other services required by electric vehicles, including coolants, fluids and greases. If Valvoline is unable to develop and market services for electric vehicles, its business and results of operations could be adversely impacted. As automotive technologies evolve, Valvoline could be required to comply with any new or stricter laws or regulations, which could require additional expenditures by Valvoline that could adversely impact business results.

Valvoline relies heavily upon its trademarks, domain names and logos to market its brands and to build and maintain brand loyalty and recognition. The Company's success depends on the continued ability of Valvoline's company-operated and franchised service center stores to use the intellectual property and on the adequate protection and enforcement of such intellectual property. Valvoline also relies on a combination of laws and contractual restrictions with employees, customers, suppliers, affiliates and others, to establish and protect its various intellectual property rights. There can be no assurance that steps taken to protect and maintain the rights in Valvoline's intellectual property will be adequate, or that third parties will not infringe, misappropriate or violate the intellectual property. If any efforts to protect the intellectual property are not adequate, or if any third party infringes, misappropriates or violates Valvoline's intellectual property, or if brand standards are not upheld in connection with the Brand Agreement, the value of its brands may be harmed. The occurrence of any of these events could result in the erosion of Valvoline's brands and limit its ability to market its brands using its various trademarks, cause Valvoline to lose such trade secrets, as well as impede its ability to effectively compete against competitors with similar products and services, any of which could adversely affect its business, financial condition and results of operations. From time to time, Valvoline has been subject to legal proceedings and claims, including claims of alleged infringement of trademarks, copyrights, patents and other intellectual property rights held by third parties. In the future, third parties may sue Valvoline for alleged infringement of their proprietary or intellectual property rights. In addition, litigation may be necessary to enforce Valvoline's intellectual property rights, protect its trade secrets or determine the validity and scope of proprietary rights claimed by others. Any litigation or other intellectual property proceedings of this nature, regardless of outcome or merit, could result in substantial costs and diversion of management and technical resources, or loss of rights in Valvoline's intellectual property, any of which could adversely affect Valvoline's business, financial condition and results of operations.

Valvoline relies on its information technology systems, including systems which are managed or provided by third-party service providers, to conduct its business. The Company's point-of-sale platforms for company-operated and franchisee retail stores could be subject to cybersecurity threats, service outages, or data breaches, such as the July 2024 software update by CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc., a cybersecurity technology company, which caused a global information technology outage. This incident required temporary manual processes to maintain operations. Although it was brief and did not have a material impact to business, Valvoline's business was adversely impacted by the outage and slowed service. Similar software-induced interruptions or any security breach involving the point-of-sale or other systems within the Valvoline network could harm business operations, result in a loss of consumer confidence, or cause costs to be incurred associated with data recovery, investigation, remediation, and data breach notification obligations required under data privacy laws, which can be significant and vary by jurisdiction. Despite employee training and other measures to mitigate them, cybersecurity threats to its information technology systems, and those of its third-party service providers, are increasing and becoming more advanced and cyber incidents have occurred and could occur as a result of unauthorized access, business email compromise, viruses, malicious code, ransomware, phishing, organized cyber-attacks, social engineering, break-ins, and security breaches due to error or misconduct by its employees, contractors or third-party service providers. The cyber incidents that have occurred have not resulted in a material loss to Valvoline; however, a material breach of or failure of Valvoline's information technology systems, including systems in which data is stored or may be transferred across third-party platforms, could lead to the loss and destruction of trade secrets, confidential information, proprietary data, intellectual property, customer and supplier data, and employee personal information, and could disrupt business operations which could adversely affect Valvoline's relationships with business partners and harm its brands, reputation and financial results. Valvoline's customer and vendor data may include names, addresses, phone numbers, email addresses and payment account information, among other information. Depending on the nature of the data that is compromised, Valvoline may also have obligations to notify individuals, regulators, law enforcement or payment companies about the incident and may need to provide some form of remedy. Valvoline could also face fines and penalties should it fail to adequately notify affected parties pursuant to new and evolving privacy laws in various jurisdictions in which it does business, as outlined in greater detail in the "Regulatory, legal, and financial risks" section below. Valvoline is continuing to expand, upgrade and develop its information technology capabilities, including, the Company's core ERP system. If the Company is unable to adequately transition its information technology organization's skills and capabilities rapidly enough, including the ability to capitalize on the advancements in Artificial Intelligence software and platforms, it may not effectively support the modernization of Valvoline's technology architecture and environment. This could hinder Valvoline's ability to keep pace with its growth and digital initiatives for the consumer-oriented, data driven, mobility enabled nature of the business. Consequently, this might inhibit Valvoline's ability to meet stakeholder needs and preferences.

Valvoline relies upon its ERP application to assist in managing certain business processes and summarizing operational and financial results. Following the sale of the former Global Products reportable segment in fiscal 2023, and as part of Valvoline's continued evolution to a standalone retail business, the Company has been in the process of separating certain business processes, information systems and applications that were previously shared to support both businesses. On January 1, 2024, Valvoline implemented a new ERP application intended to better accommodate the retail business model and support the Company's continued growth. A material weakness in internal control over financial reporting arose in connection with the Company's implementation of the new ERP system and its related impact on IT general controls, which included deficiencies related to certain business processes that were not adequately designed at the time of system implementation. While the ERP system is intended to ultimately improve and enhance business processes, its implementation resulted in disruptions to maintaining an effective internal control environment and the timely processing of invoices and billings to franchisee, independent operator and fleet customers. Although the new ERP application is not currently utilized in the day-to-day operations of Valvoline's retail stores and there have been no material impacts on its ability to serve customers to-date, the conversion to any new IT system, including the planned implementation of a human resources information system expected in fiscal 2025, exposes the Company to additional risks and possible continued disruptions. This includes the loss of information, unauthorized access and systematic changes, disruption to normal operations, and risks associated with integrations with other applications and processes. Implementing the new ERP system has required, and the efforts associated with mitigation, remediation, and enhancements will continue to require, the investment of significant personnel and financial resources. Failure to adequately and timely address any known or potential issues to ensure the new ERP system operates as intended could result in unexpected incremental costs and diversion of management's attention and resources, further interruptions or delays in processes and challenges with vendor and customer relationships, difficulty in achieving and maintaining effective internal controls and issuing timely and accurate financial results. Valvoline management has implemented a remedial plan, as described in Item 9A, Controls and Procedures, which substantial progress has been made during fiscal 2024. However, management cannot provide any assurance that such remedial measures, or any other remedial measures taken, will be effective and identify or address all inherent risks from implementing an ERP system. If this remediation fails or other material weaknesses arise, it may adversely affect operating results, the trading price of Valvoline's common stock, internal control over financial reporting, or the ability to effectively manage the business.

Valvoline's service center locations require large quantities of automotive products and supplies. The Company's success depends in part on the ability to anticipate and react to changes in supply costs, and the Company is susceptible to increases in primary and secondary supply costs as a result of factors beyond its control. These factors include general economic conditions, including recessions, significant variations in supply and demand, potential increases in taxes and tariffs, pandemics, armed conflicts, war, weather conditions, currency fluctuations where Valvoline operates, commodity market speculation, labor strikes, including rail strikes, and government regulations. For example, Valvoline's supplier for air filters experienced supply constraints in fiscal 2024 leading to delivery delays to Valvoline until the supplier was able to diversify its supply chain, which impacted non-oil change revenue in the first half of fiscal 2024. Additionally, the International Longshoreman's Association ("ILA") union of maritime workers contract expired on September 30, 2024 without a renewed contract negotiated until early October 2024, resulting in a brief labor strike. A more lengthy strike from the ILA could have had a negative impact on Valvoline's suppliers resulting in an unfavorable impact to product availability and cost and negatively impacted the Company's consolidated results of operations. Higher product and supply costs could reduce the Company's profits, which in turn may adversely affect the business and results of operations for both company-operated and franchised stores. Additionally, should conditions such as supply chain congestion or availability related to severe weather or climate conditions become severe or last for an extended period of time, Valvoline's inventory of supplies may not be sufficient to meet customer demands. Government regulations related to the manufacture or transport of products provided by the supplier may also impede Valvoline's ability to obtain those supplies on commercially reasonable terms. If Valvoline is unable to obtain and retain product supply under commercially acceptable terms, its ability to deliver services in a competitive and profitable manner or grow its business successfully could be adversely affected.

Valvoline is subject to extensive federal, state, local and non-U.S. laws, regulations, rules and ordinances relating to pollution, protection of the environment and human health and safety, as well as the storage, handling, treatment, disposal and remediation of hazardous substances and waste materials. Valvoline has incurred, and will continue to incur, costs and capital expenditures to comply with these laws and regulations. EHS regulations change frequently, and such regulations and their enforcement have tended to become more stringent over time. Accordingly, changes in EHS laws and regulations and the enforcement of such laws and regulations could interrupt Valvoline's operations, require modifications to its facilities or cause it to incur significant liabilities, costs or losses that could adversely affect its profitability. Actual or alleged violations of EHS laws and regulations could result in restrictions or prohibitions on service center operations as well as substantial damages, penalties, fines, civil or criminal sanctions and remediation costs. Valvoline's business involves the purchase, storage and transportation of hazardous substances. Under some environmental laws, Valvoline may be strictly liable and/or jointly and severally liable for environmental damages caused by releases of hazardous substances and waste materials into the environment. For instance, under relevant laws and regulations Valvoline may be deemed liable for soil and/or groundwater contamination at sites it currently owns and/or operates even though the contamination was caused by a third party such as a former owner or operator, and at sites it formerly owned and operated if the release of hazardous substances or waste materials was caused by it or by a third party during the period it owned and/or operated the site. Valvoline also may be deemed liable for soil and/or groundwater contamination at sites to which it sent hazardous wastes for treatment or disposal, notwithstanding that the original treatment or disposal activity accorded with all applicable regulatory requirements.

Economic downturns, including a recession, may reduce customer demand or inhibit Valvoline's ability to provide its services. Valvoline's business and operating results are sensitive to declining economic conditions, credit market tightness, declining customer and business confidence, volatile exchange and interest rates, continuing inflation and other challenges, including those related to acts of aggression or threatened aggression that can affect the economy and financial markets. In the event of adverse developments or stagnation in the economy or financial markets, Valvoline's customers may defer vehicle maintenance, oil changes, or other services, may repair and maintain their vehicles themselves or be unable to obtain credit reducing their ability to spend. In a prolonged economic downturn or recession, these risks and uncertainties could have a material negative impact on Valvoline's business, financial condition and results of operations. The severity and duration of a downturn in economic and financial market conditions, as well as the timing, strength, and sustainability of a recovery, are unknown and are not within the Company's control. If the U.S. economy were to enter a recession, the recessionary risks discussed above and elsewhere within these risk factors could be more pronounced in such an economic climate. Economic weakness and uncertainty may cause changes in customer preferences and habits, and if such economic conditions persist for an extended period of time, this may result in customers making long-lasting changes to their spending behaviors, which could unfavorably impact Valvoline's business, its results of operations and cash flows. Additionally, during periods of favorable economic conditions, customers may be more likely to purchase new vehicles rather than maintaining and servicing older vehicles, which could also have an adverse impact on Valvoline's business, results of operations, cash flows and strategic objectives.

The global macroeconomic environment could be negatively affected by, among other things, disruptions to the banking system and financial market volatility resulting from bank failures and actions to reduce inflation. The Company utilizes and maintains material balances of cash and cash equivalents, therefore is reliant on banks and financial institutions to safeguard and allow ready access to these assets. Specifically, the Company has $68.3 million of cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2024 held by various financial institutions. The failure of a bank, or other adverse conditions in the financial markets, impacting the institutions or counterparties with which the Company, or its customers or vendors, maintain deposits or financing activities, could impact Valvoline's timely access to liquid assets or its financial performance. There are no assurances or guarantees that deposits greater than the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation limits will be protected by the U.S. government or that any bank, government or financial institution will be able to obtain the needed liquidity in the event of a failure or similar crisis. If financial institutions are unable to provide timely access to deposits and funds, the Company, its vendors, customers, or lenders could be required to seek additional sources of liquidity to maintain operating and cash requirements. As a result of uncertainty in the broader financial markets, there may be additional impacts to Valvoline's business that cannot be predicted at this time.

New laws or regulations, or changes in existing laws or regulations or the manner of their interpretation or enforcement, could increase Valvoline's cost of doing business and restrict its ability to operate its business or execute its strategies. This risk includes, among other things, compliance with a myriad of U.S. tax laws and regulations; franchise laws and regulations; securities laws and regulations; environmental laws and regulations; labor laws and regulations; anti-competition laws and regulations; product compliance regulations; anti-corruption and anti-bribery laws, including the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act ("FCPA"); anti-money-laundering laws; and other laws governing Valvoline's operations. Although Valvoline has implemented policies and procedures to ensure compliance with these laws and regulations, it cannot be sure that its policies and procedures are sufficient or that directors, officers, employees, representatives, consultants and agents have not engaged in, and will not engage in, conduct for which Valvoline may be held responsible, nor can Valvoline be sure that its business partners, including franchisees, have not engaged in, and will not engage in, conduct that could materially affect their ability to perform their contractual obligations to Valvoline or even result in Valvoline being held liable for such conduct. Violations of these laws or regulations may result in severe criminal or civil sanctions or penalties, or significant changes in existing laws and regulations may subject Valvoline to other liabilities, which could have a material adverse effect on its business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.

Pursuant to the terms of the Separation Agreement and certain other agreements with Ashland, Ashland agreed to indemnify Valvoline for certain liabilities. However, third parties could also seek to hold Valvoline responsible for any of the liabilities that Ashland agreed to retain, and there can be no assurance that the indemnity from Ashland will be sufficient to protect Valvoline against the full amount of such liabilities, or that Ashland will be able to fully satisfy its indemnification obligations in the future. Even if Valvoline ultimately succeeded in recovering from Ashland any amounts for which Valvoline is held liable, Valvoline may be temporarily required to bear these losses. Each of these risks could negatively affect Valvoline's business, financial position, results of operations and cash flows.

Valvoline is subject to federal, state and local laws, and regulations in the U.S. and Canada relating to the collection, use, retention, disclosure, security and transfer of personal data relating to its customers and employees. These laws and regulations, and their interpretation and enforcement continue to evolve and may be inconsistent from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. For example, the California Consumer Privacy Act ("CCPA") applies to Valvoline's activities conducted in the state of California. Valvoline is also subject to Canada data privacy laws, such as The Personal Information Protection and Electronic Documents Act ("PIPEDA"), due to operations throughout Canada. Complying with the CCPA, PIPEDA and other similar emerging and changing privacy and data protection requirements can be resource-intensive and may cause Valvoline to incur substantial costs as compliance requires investment in new processes, technologies, and training. Failure to protect customer personal data or comply with these legal obligations relating to privacy and data protection could damage Valvoline's reputation and affect its ability to retain and attract customers. Additionally, any failure or perceived failure by Valvoline or any third parties with which it does business, to comply with these privacy and data protection laws and regulations, or with respect to similar obligations to which Valvoline may be or become subject, may result in actions against Valvoline by governmental entities, private claims and litigation, fines, penalties or other liabilities. Any such action would be expensive to defend, damage Valvoline's reputation and adversely affect business, operating results, financial position and cash flows.