Virginia National Bankshares (VABK) Risk Analysis

Effective internal and disclosure controls are necessary for the Company to provide reliable financial reports and effectively prevent fraud and to operate successfully as a public company. The Company is also required to establish and maintain an adequate internal control structure over financial reporting pursuant to regulations of the FDIC. As a public company, the Company is required by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act to design and maintain a system of internal control over financial reporting and include management's assessment regarding internal control over financial reporting. If the Company cannot provide reliable financial reports or prevent fraud, its reputation and operating results would be harmed. As part of the Company's ongoing monitoring of internal control, it may discover material weaknesses or significant deficiencies in its internal control that require remediation. A "material weakness" is a deficiency, or a combination of deficiencies, in internal control over financial reporting, such that there is a reasonable possibility that a material misstatement of a company's annual or interim financial statements will not be prevented or detected on a timely basis. The Company's inability to maintain the operating effectiveness of the controls described above could result in a material misstatement to the Company's financial statements or other disclosures, which could have an adverse effect on its business, financial condition or results of operations. In addition, any failure to maintain effective controls or to timely effect any necessary improvement of the Company's internal and disclosure controls could, among other things, result in losses from fraud or error, harm the Company's reputation or cause investors to lose confidence in its reported financial information, all of which could have a material adverse effect on its results of operation and financial condition.

Changes in the interest rate environment may reduce the Company's profits. It is expected that the Company will continue to realize income from the differential or "spread" between the interest earned on loans, securities, and other interest-earning assets, and interest paid on deposits, borrowings and other interest bearing liabilities. Net interest spreads are affected by the difference between the maturities and repricing characteristics of interest-earning assets and interest bearing liabilities. In addition, loan volume and yields are affected by market interest rates on loans, and the current interest rate environment encourages extreme competition for new loan originations from qualified borrowers. The Company's management cannot ensure that it can minimize interest rate risk. If the interest rates paid on deposits and other borrowings increase at a faster rate than the interest rates received on loans and other investments, the Company's net interest income, and therefore earnings, could be adversely affected. Earnings could also be adversely affected if the interest rates received on loans and other investments fall more quickly than the interest rates paid on deposits and other borrowings. Accordingly, changes in levels of market interest rates could materially and adversely affect the net interest spread, asset quality, loan origination volume and the Company's overall profitability.

The Company's primary sources of funds are deposits and loan repayments. While scheduled loan repayments are a relatively stable source of funds, they are subject to the ability of borrowers to repay the loans. The ability of borrowers to repay loans can be adversely affected by a number of factors, including, but not limited to, changes in economic conditions, adverse trends or events affecting business industry groups, reductions in real estate values or markets, availability of, and/or access to, sources of refinancing, business closings or lay-offs, pandemics or endemics, inclement weather, natural disasters and international instability. Deposit levels may be affected by a number of factors, including, but not limited to, rates paid by competitors, general interest rate levels, regulatory capital requirements, returns available to customers on alternative investments and general economic conditions. Additionally, negative news about the Company or the banking industry in general could negatively impact market and/or customer perceptions of the Company, which could lead to a loss of depositor confidence and an increase in deposit withdrawals, particularly among those with uninsured deposits. Furthermore, as many regional banking organizations experienced in 2023, the failure of other financial institutions may cause deposit outflows as customers spread deposits among several different banks so as to maximize their amount of FDIC insurance, move deposits to banks deemed "too big to fail" or remove deposits from the banking system entirely. As of December 31, 2023, approximately 25.5% of our deposits were uninsured and we rely on these deposits for liquidity. Accordingly, the Company may be required from time-to-time to rely on secondary sources of liquidity to meet withdrawal demands or otherwise fund operations. Such sources include FHLB advances, sales of securities and loans, federal funds lines of credit from correspondent banks and borrowings from the Federal Reserve Discount Window, as well as additional out-of-market time deposits and brokered deposits. While the Company believes that these sources are currently adequate, there can be no assurance they will be sufficient or available to meet future liquidity demands, particularly if the Company continues to grow and experiences increasing loan demand. The Company may be required to slow or discontinue loan growth, capital expenditures or other investments, or liquidate assets should such sources not be adequate.

A significant source of risk for the Company is the possibility that losses will be sustained because borrowers, guarantors and related parties may fail to perform in accordance with the terms of their loan agreements. Most of the Company's loans are secured but some loans are unsecured. With respect to the secured loans, the collateral securing the repayment of these loans may be insufficient to cover the obligations owed under such loans. Collateral values may be adversely affected by changes in economic, environmental and other conditions, declines in the value of real estate, changes in interest rates, changes in monetary and fiscal policies of the federal government, terrorist activity, environmental contamination and other external events. In addition, collateral appraisals that are out of date or that do not meet industry-recognized standards may create the impression that a loan is adequately collateralized when it is not. The Company has adopted underwriting and credit monitoring procedures and policies, including regular reviews of appraisals and borrower financial statements, that management believes are appropriate to mitigate the risk of loss. An increase in nonperforming loans could result in a net loss of earnings from these loans, an increase in the provision for credit losses and an increase in loan charge-offs, all of which could have a material adverse effect on the Company's financial condition and results of operations.

As of December 31, 2023, the Company had approximately $396.1 million in loans secured by commercial real estate, which represented approximately 36.3% of total loans outstanding at that date; such loans consist of non-owner occupied commercial real estate, construction, land development, multi-family and other land loans. These types of loans are generally viewed as having higher risk of default than residential real estate loans. They are also typically larger than residential real estate loans and consumer loans and depend on cash flows from the property to service the debt, successful completion of construction projects and, for development loans, sale of the underlying asset. It may be more difficult for commercial real estate borrowers to repay their loans in a timely manner, as commercial real estate borrowers' abilities to repay their loans frequently depend on the successful rental of their properties. Some degree of instability in the commercial real estate markets is expected in the coming quarters as loans are refinanced in markets with higher vacancy rates under current economic conditions. The outlook for commercial real estate remains dependent on the broader economic environment and, specifically, how major subsectors respond to a higher interest rate environment and higher prices for commodities, goods and services. Cash flows may be affected significantly by general economic conditions, and a sustained downturn in the local economy or in occupancy rates in the local economy where the property is located could increase the likelihood of default. Because the Company's loan portfolio contains a number of commercial real estate loans with relatively large balances, the deterioration of one or a few of these loans could cause a significant increase in its percentage of nonperforming loans. An increase in nonperforming loans could result in a loss of earnings from these loans, an increase in the provision for credit losses and an increase in charge-offs, all of which could have a material adverse effect on the Company's financial condition. The Company's banking regulators generally give commercial real estate lending greater scrutiny and may require banks with higher levels of commercial real estate loans to implement improved underwriting, internal controls, risk management policies and portfolio stress testing, as well as possibly higher levels of ACL and capital as a result of commercial real estate lending growth and exposures, which could have a material adverse effect on the Company's results of operations. Steps to mitigate such risks include underwriting multiple sources of repayment, including but not limited to, business cash flow, personal guarantees, collateral, and government guarantees, where applicable. In addition, the Company has established concentration limits that are regularly monitored by management and reported to the Board. Although the Company has taken these mitigation steps, there is no guarantee that such practices will be effective to prevent the increased credit risk.

The Company offers a variety of secured loans, including commercial lines of credit, commercial term loans, real estate, construction, home equity, consumer and other loans. Credit risk and credit losses can increase if its loans are concentrated to borrowers who, as a group, may be uniquely or disproportionately affected by economic or market conditions. As of December 31, 2023, approximately 82.6% of the Company's loans are secured by real estate, both residential and commercial. The Company has established concentration limits that are regularly monitored by management and reported to the Board. A major change in the real estate market in the regions in which the Company operates, resulting in a deterioration in real estate values, or in the local or national economy, could adversely affect the Company's customers' ability to pay these loans, which in turn could adversely impact the Company. Risk of loan defaults and foreclosures are inherent in the banking industry, and the Company tries to limit its exposure to this risk by carefully underwriting and monitoring its extensions of credit. The Company cannot fully eliminate credit risk, and as a result, credit losses may occur in the future.

Access to sufficient capital is critical in order to enable the Company to implement its business plan, support its business, expand its operations and meet applicable capital requirements. The inability to have sufficient capital, whether internally generated through earnings or raised in the capital markets, could adversely impact the Company's ability to support and to grow its operations. If the Company grows its operations faster than it generates capital internally, it will need to access the capital markets. The Company may not be able to raise additional capital in the form of additional debt or equity on acceptable terms, or at all. The Company's ability to raise additional capital, if needed, will depend on, among other things, conditions in the capital markets at that time, the Company's financial condition and its results of operations. Economic conditions and a loss of confidence in financial institutions may increase the Company's cost of capital and limit access to some sources of capital. Further, if the Company needs to raise capital in the future, it may have to do so when many other financial institutions are also seeking to raise capital and would then have to compete with those institutions for investors. An inability to raise additional capital on acceptable terms when needed could have a material adverse impact on the Company's business, financial condition and results of operations.

The Company assumes credit risk by virtue of making loans and extending loan commitments and letters of credit. The Company manages credit risk through a program of underwriting standards, the review of certain credit decisions and a continuous quality assessment process of credit already extended. The Company's exposure to credit risk is managed through the use of consistent underwriting standards that emphasize local lending while avoiding highly leveraged transactions, as well as excessive industry and other concentrations. The Company's credit administration function employs risk management techniques to help ensure that problem loans are promptly identified. While these procedures are designed to provide the Company with the information needed to implement policy adjustments where necessary and to take appropriate corrective actions, there can be no assurance that such measures will be effective in avoiding undue credit risk.

Technology and other changes are allowing parties to complete financial transactions through alternative methods that historically have involved banks. For example, consumers can now maintain funds that would have historically been held as bank deposits in brokerage accounts, mutual funds, general-purpose reloadable prepaid cards, or in other types of assets, including cryptocurrencies or other digital assets. Consumers can also complete transactions such as paying bills or transferring funds directly without the assistance of banks. The process of eliminating banks as intermediaries, known as "disintermediation," could result in the loss of fee income, as well as the loss of customer deposits and the related income generated from those deposits. The loss of these revenue streams and the loss of deposits as a lower cost source of funds could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.