United Fire Group (UFCS) Risk Analysis

We maintain insurance reserves to cover our estimated ultimate unpaid liability for claims and claims adjustment expenses, including the estimated cost of the claims adjustment process, for reported and unreported claims and for future policy benefits. Our reserves may prove to be inadequate, which may result in future charges to earnings and/or a downgrade of our financial strength rating or the financial strength ratings of our insurance company subsidiaries. Insurance reserves represent our best estimate at a given point in time. They are not an exact calculation of liability but instead are complex estimates, which are a product of actuarial expertise and projection techniques based on assumptions and expectations about future events, many of which are highly uncertain. The process of estimating claims and claims adjustment expense reserves involves a high degree of judgment. These estimates are based on historical data and the impact of various factors such as: (1) Actuarial and statistical projections of the cost of settlement and administration of claims reflecting facts and circumstances known. (2) Historical claims information and loss emergence patterns. (3) Assessments of currently available data. (4) Estimates of future trends in claims severity and frequency. (5) Judicial theories of liability. (6) Economic factors such as inflation. (7) Estimates and assumptions regarding social, judicial and legislative trends, and actions such as class action lawsuits and judicial interpretation of coverages or policy exclusions. (8) The level of insurance fraud. Many of these factors are not quantifiable. The inherent uncertainties of estimating reserves are greater for certain types of liabilities, particularly those in which the various considerations affecting the type of claim are subject to change and in which long periods of time may elapse before a definitive determination of liability is made. Reserve estimates are continually refined in a regular and ongoing process as experience develops and further claims are reported and settled. Actual loss and loss settlement expenses paid might exceed our reserves. If our loss reserves are insufficient, or if we believe our loss reserves are insufficient to cover our actual loss and loss settlement expenses, we will have to increase our loss reserves and incur charges to our earnings, which could indicate that premium levels were insufficient. As such, deviations from one or more of these assumptions could result in a material adverse impact on our Consolidated Financial Statements and/or our financial strength rating. For additional information about our reserving process and the factors we consider in estimating reserves, refer to the "Critical Accounting Estimates" section in Part II, Item 7, "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations."

We refer to these phenomena collectively as "social inflation" and they present a significant challenge in accurately pricing risk and managing the liabilities that arise on insurance policies. As a commercial casualty insurance company, we have always been sensitive to the effects of emerging claims and coverage issues, including class action lawsuits. But more recent trends such as litigation financing have led to an unprecedented number of large liability losses for us as well as our competitors. These issues may adversely affect our business by either extending coverage beyond our underwriting intent or by increasing the number and/or size of claims, resulting in further increases in our reserves. The effects of these and other unforeseen emerging claims and coverage issues are difficult to predict. Further examples of these issues include: (1) Judicial expansion of policy coverage and the impact of new theories of liability. (2) An increase in plaintiffs targeting property and casualty insurers in purported class action litigation regarding claims handling and other practices. (3) Medical developments that link health issues to specific causes, resulting in liability or workers' compensation (for example, cumulative trauma). (4) Claims relating to unanticipated consequences of current or new technologies. (5) An increase in the variety, number and size of claims relating to liability losses, which often present complex coverage and damage valuation questions. (6) Claims relating to potentially changing climate conditions, including higher frequency and severity of weather-related events. (7) Adverse changes in loss cost trends, including inflationary pressure in medical cost and automobile repair costs. Many of the policies we issue include exclusions and other conditions that define, and limit coverage, which are designed to manage our exposure to certain types of risks and expanding theories of legal liability. In addition, many of our policies limit the period during which a policyholder may bring a claim under the policy, which period in many cases is shorter than the statutory period under which these claims can be brought by our policyholders. While these exclusions and limitations help us assess and control our loss exposure, it is possible that a court or regulatory authority could nullify or void an exclusion or limitation, or legislation could be enacted which modifies or bars the use of these exclusions and limitations. This could result in higher than anticipated losses by extending coverage beyond the intent of our underwriting. In some instances, these changes may not become apparent until sometime after we have issued the insurance policies that are affected by these changes. As a result, the full extent of liability under our insurance contracts may not be known for many years after a policy is issued. We actively educate employees on the risk of social inflation and how best to defend against social inflation tactics. We endeavor to find ways to keep claims out of litigation and manage downward the length of time that certain claims are open. We also steer our portfolio away from business that is most exposed to these trends, and we target business in our assumed reinsurance operations and other alternative distribution channels that offer shorter tail risks.

The results of our operations and our financial condition depend on our ability to underwrite and set premium rates accurately for a wide variety of risks based on available information. Adequate rates are necessary to generate premiums sufficient to pay losses, loss settlement expenses and underwriting expenses and to earn a profit. To price our products accurately, we must collect and properly analyze a substantial amount of data, develop, and apply appropriate pricing techniques, closely monitor changes in trends and project both severity and frequency of losses with reasonable accuracy. We could underprice risks which would adversely affect our profit margins. Conversely, we could overprice risks, leading to reduced sales volume and competitiveness. Our ability to undertake these efforts successfully is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to: (1) The availability of sufficient reliable data and our ability to properly analyze available data. (2) Market and competitive conditions. (3) Changes in medical care expenses and restoration costs. (4) Our selection and application of appropriate pricing techniques. (5) Changes in the regulatory market, applicable legal liability standards and in the civil litigation system generally. The demand for property and casualty insurance can also vary significantly, rising as the overall level of economic activity increases and falling as that activity decreases. Fluctuations in demand and competition could produce underwriting results that would have a negative impact on the results of our operations and financial condition.