Two Harbors (TWO) Risk Analysis

Our subsidiaries' continued approval from the GSEs to own and manage MSR and service mortgage loans is subject to compliance with each of their respective selling and servicing guidelines, minimum capital requirements and other conditions they may impose from time to time at their discretion. Failure to meet such guidelines and conditions could result in the unilateral termination of our subsidiaries' approved status by one or more GSEs, the acceleration and termination of our MSR financing facilities or the assessment of fines and loss of reimbursement of loan-related advances, expenses, interest and servicing fees. In addition, the implementation of more restrictive or operationally intensive guidance may increase the costs associated with owning and managing MSR, our ability to finance MSR and our ability to generate revenue from servicing mortgage loans.

Our ability to purchase and hold assets and execute our business strategy is affected by our ability to secure repurchase agreements and other credit facilities on acceptable terms. We currently have repurchase agreements, revolving credit facilities, a warehouse facility and other credit facilities in place with numerous counterparties, but we can provide no assurance that lenders will continue to provide us with sufficient financing through the repurchase markets or otherwise. In addition, with respect to MSR financing, there can be no assurance that the GSEs will consent to such transactions or consent on terms consistent with prior MSR financing transactions. Because repurchase agreements and similar credit facilities are generally short-term commitments of capital, changing conditions in the financing markets may make it more difficult for us to secure continued financing during times of market stress. Our ability to efficiently access financing through our repurchase agreements or otherwise may be adversely impacted by counterparty requirements regarding the type of assets that may be sold and the timing and process for such sales. Counterparty review and approval processes may delay the timing in which funding may be provided, or preclude funding altogether. For MSR, delays may also occur due to the need to obtain GSE approval of the collateral to be posted or the need for third-party valuations of the MSR collateral. Our lenders also may revise their eligibility requirements for the types of assets they are willing to finance or the terms of such financings, based on, among other factors, the regulatory environment and their management of perceived risk. Changes in the financing markets could adversely affect the marketability of the assets in which we invest, and this could negatively affect the value of our assets. If our lenders are unwilling or unable to provide us with financing, or if the financing is only available on terms that are uneconomical or otherwise not satisfactory to us, we could be forced to sell assets when prices are depressed. The amount of financing we receive under our repurchase agreements, revolving credit facilities or other credit facilities will be directly related to the lenders' valuation of the assets that secure the outstanding borrowings. If a lender determines that the value of the assets has decreased, it typically has the right to initiate a margin call, requiring us to transfer additional assets to such lender, or repay a portion of the outstanding borrowings. We may be forced to sell assets at significantly depressed prices to meet margin calls and to maintain liquidity at levels satisfactory to the counterparty, which could cause us to incur losses. Moreover, to the extent that we are forced to sell assets because of the availability of financing or changes in market conditions, other market participants may face similar pressures, which could exacerbate a difficult market environment and result in significantly greater losses on the sale of such assets. In an extreme case of market duress, a market may not exist for certain of our assets at any price. Although we generally seek to reduce our exposure to lender concentration-related risk by entering into financing relationships with multiple counterparties, we are not required to observe specific diversification criteria, except as may be set forth in the investment guidelines adopted by our board of directors. To the extent that the number of or net exposure under our lending arrangements may become concentrated with one or more lenders, the adverse impacts of defaults or terminations by such lenders may be significantly greater.

In connection with certain of our repurchase agreements, warehouse facilities, revolving credit facilities and other credit facilities, we are required to comply with certain financial covenants, the most restrictive of which are disclosed within Item 7, "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Conditions and Results of Operations" of this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Compliance with these financial covenants will depend on market factors and the strength of our business and operating results. Failure to comply with our financial covenants could result in an event of default, termination of the lending facility, acceleration of all amounts owing under the lending facility, and may give the counterparty the right to exercise certain other remedies under the lending agreement, including without limitation the sale of the collateral securing the facility at the time of default, unless the counterparty granted a waiver. In addition, we may be subject to cross-default provisions under certain financing facilities that could cause an event of default under such financing facilities to be triggered by events of default under other financing arrangements.

When we enter into repurchase agreements, we sell the assets to lenders and receive cash from the lenders. The lenders are obligated to resell the same assets back to us at the end of the term of the repurchase agreement. Because the cash that we receive from the lender when we initially sell the assets to the lender is less than the value of those assets (the difference being the "haircut"), if the lender defaults on its obligation to resell the same assets back to us, we would incur a loss on the repurchase agreement equal to the amount of the haircut (assuming there was no change in the value of the securities). Further, if we default on our obligations under a repurchase agreement, the lender will be able to terminate the repurchase agreement and may cease entering into any other repurchase agreements with us. If a default occurs under any of our repurchase agreements and a lender terminates one or more of its repurchase agreements, we may need to enter into replacement repurchase agreements with different lenders. There can be no assurance that we will be successful in entering into such replacement repurchase agreements on the same terms as the repurchase agreements that were terminated or at all.

In the event of our insolvency or bankruptcy, certain repurchase agreements may qualify for special treatment under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, the effect of which, among other things, would be to allow the lender under the applicable repurchase agreement to avoid the automatic stay provisions of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code and to foreclose on the collateral agreement without delay. In the event of the insolvency or bankruptcy of a lender during the term of a repurchase agreement, the lender may be permitted, under applicable insolvency laws, to repudiate the contract, and our claim against the lender for damages may be treated simply as an unsecured creditor claim. In addition, if the lender is a broker or dealer subject to the Securities Investor Protection Act of 1970, or an insured depository institution subject to the Federal Deposit Insurance Act, our ability to exercise our rights to recover our assets under a repurchase agreement or to be compensated for any damages resulting from the lender's insolvency may be further limited by those statutes. These claims would be subject to significant delay and, if and when received, may be substantially less than the damages we actually incur.

We have exposure to and routinely execute transactions with numerous counterparties in the financial services industry, including broker-dealers, commercial banks, investment banks, investment funds and other institutions. The operations of U.S. and global financial services institutions are highly interconnected and a decline in the financial condition of one or more financial services institutions may expose us to credit losses or defaults, limit our access to liquidity or otherwise disrupt the operation of our businesses. While we regularly assess our exposure to different counterparties, the performance and financial strength of specific institutions are subject to rapid change, the timing and extent of which cannot be known.

We have issued and have outstanding $261.9 million aggregate principal amount of 6.25% convertible senior notes due January 2026. To the extent these notes are not converted into common stock by the noteholders prior to their maturity date, we will be obligated to repay the principal amount of all outstanding notes upon maturity. In addition, if a fundamental change occurs (as described in the supplemental indenture governing the notes), noteholders have the right to require us to purchase for cash any or all of their notes. We may not have sufficient funds available at the time we are required to repay principal amounts or to purchase the notes upon a fundamental change, and we may not be able to raise additional capital or arrange necessary financing in order to make such payments on terms that are acceptable to us, if at all.

As our repurchase agreements and other short-term borrowings mature, we must enter into new borrowings, find other sources of liquidity or sell assets. An increase in short-term interest rates at the time that we seek to enter into new borrowings would reduce the spread between the returns on our assets and the cost of our borrowings. This would adversely affect the returns on our assets, which might reduce earnings and, in turn, cash available for distribution to stockholders.

We have and may in the future acquire assets or other instruments with limited or no liquidity, including securities, MSR and other instruments that are not publicly traded. Market conditions could also significantly and negatively affect the liquidity of our assets. It may be difficult or impossible to obtain third-party pricing on such illiquid assets and validating third-party pricing for illiquid assets may be more subjective than more liquid assets. Illiquid assets typically experience greater price volatility, as a ready market may not exist for such assets, and such assets can be more difficult to value. Any illiquidity in our assets may make it difficult for us to sell such assets if the need or desire arises. The ability to quickly sell certain of our target assets, such as certain securities and MSR, may be constrained by a number of factors, including a small number of willing buyers, lack of transparency as to current market terms and price, and time delays resulting from the buyer's desire to conduct due diligence on the assets, negotiation of a purchase and sale agreement, compliance with any applicable contractual or regulatory requirements, and for certain assets like MSR, operational and compliance considerations. Consequently, even if we identify a buyer for certain of our securities and MSR, there is no assurance that we would be able to sell such assets in a timely manner if the need or desire arises. Assets that are illiquid are typically more difficult and costly to finance. As a result, we may be required to finance the assets at unattractive rates or hold them on our balance sheet without the use of leverage. Assets tend to become less liquid during times of financial stress, which is often the time that liquidity is most needed. To the extent that we use leverage to finance assets that later become illiquid, we may lose that leverage if the financing counterparty determines that the collateral is no longer sufficient to secure the financing, or the counterparty could reduce the amount of money that it is willing to lend against the asset.

We originate residential mortgage loans and may sell them to the GSEs or other third-party investors in the secondary market. There can be no assurance that we will be able to continue to sell our loans into the secondary market at attractive prices, or at all. If we are unable to sell our mortgage loans to the GSEs or other third-party investors, or the prices for such loans decline, our liquidity may be negatively impacted, we may be unable to continue to fund such loans, our revenues and margins on new loan originations could be reduced and our ability to repay our warehouse facilities could be impaired.

In deciding whether to approve loans through our originations platform, we may rely on information furnished to us by or on behalf of borrowers, including financial statements and other information. We also may rely on representations of borrowers as to the accuracy and completeness of financial and other information provided. If any of this information is intentionally or negligently misrepresented and such misrepresentation is not detected prior to loan funding, the fair value of the loan may be significantly lower than expected. Whether a misrepresentation is made by the loan applicant, another party or one of our employees, we generally bear the risk of loss associated with the misrepresentation and the loan may be unsalable or subject to repurchase. Our controls and processes may not have detected or may not detect all misrepresented information in our loan originations. Any such misrepresented information could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.

Through our operational platform, RoundPoint, we directly service a portion of the mortgage loans underlying our MSR assets as well as mortgage loans underlying MSR owned by third parties in accordance with requirements set forth by regulatory agencies and GSEs. This exposes us to risks inherent in mortgage loan servicing more directly than engaging third-party mortgage loan servicers, including legal or regulatory investigations or actions, adverse operational and reputational impacts resulting from a failure to comply with GSE rules and guidelines, additional servicing costs or servicing advance obligations resulting from payment delinquencies and mortgage defaults, and cybersecurity failures or breaches. Any of the foregoing risks could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and liquidity. In addition, when the servicing of a mortgage loan is assumed either through the purchase of MSR or through a subservicing arrangement, such loan may have been previously serviced in a manner that could interfere with our ability to meet certain applicable requirements. If not remediated by a prior servicer, such events may lead to the eventual realization of a loss to us. The recovery process against a prior servicer can be prolonged and amounts ultimately recovered from prior servicers may differ from our estimated recoveries recorded based on the prior servicer's interpretation of responsibility for loss, which could lead to our realization of additional losses.

Our operating results depend in large part on the difference between the income from our assets and financing costs. We anticipate that, in many cases, the income from our assets will respond more slowly to interest rate fluctuations than the cost of our borrowings. Consequently, changes in interest rates, particularly short-term interest rates, may significantly influence our financial results. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors, including governmental monetary and tax policies, domestic and international economic and political considerations and other factors beyond our control. We cannot predict the impact that any future actions or non-actions by the Federal Reserve with respect to the federal funds rate or otherwise may have on the markets or the economy. Interest rate fluctuations present a variety of risks, including the risk of a narrowing of the difference between asset yields and borrowing rates, flattening or inversion of the yield curve and fluctuating prepayment rates. We endeavor to hedge our exposure to changes in interest rates, but there can be no assurances that our hedges will be successful, or that we will be able to enter into or maintain such hedges.

Rising interest rates generally reduce the demand for mortgage loans due to the higher cost of borrowing. A reduction in the volume of mortgage loans originated may affect the volume of certain target assets available to us, which could adversely affect our ability to acquire assets that satisfy our investment and business objectives. Rising interest rates may also cause certain target assets that were issued prior to an interest rate increase to provide yields that are below prevailing market interest rates. If rising interest rates cause us to be unable to acquire a sufficient volume of our target assets with a yield that is above our borrowing cost, our ability to satisfy our investment objectives and to generate income and pay dividends may be materially and adversely affected.

We engage in transactions intended to hedge against various risks to our portfolio, including the exposure to changes in interest rates. The extent of our hedging activity varies in scope based on, among other things, the level and volatility of interest rates, the type of assets held and other market conditions. Although these transactions are intended to reduce our exposure to various risks, hedging may fail to adequately protect or could adversely affect us because, among other things: available hedges may not correspond directly with the risks for which protection is sought; the duration of the hedge may not match the duration of the related liability; the amount of income that a REIT may earn from certain hedging transactions is limited by U.S. federal income tax provisions; the credit quality of a hedging counterparty may be downgraded to such an extent that it impairs our ability to sell or assign our side of the hedging transaction; and the hedging counterparty may default on its obligations. Subject to maintaining our qualification as a REIT and satisfying the criteria for no-action relief from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's commodity pool operator registration rules, there are no current limitations on the hedging transactions that we may undertake. Our hedging transactions could require us to fund large cash payments in certain circumstances (e.g., the early termination of the hedging instrument caused by an event of default or other early termination event, or a demand by a counterparty that we make increased margin payments). Our ability to fund these obligations will depend on the liquidity of our assets and our access to capital at the time. The need to fund these obligations could adversely affect our financial condition. Further, hedging transactions, which are intended to limit losses, may actually result in losses, which would adversely affect our earnings and could in turn reduce cash available for distribution to stockholders.

We use leverage to finance many of our investments and to enhance our financial returns. Through the use of leverage, we may acquire positions with market exposure significantly greater than the amount of capital committed to the transaction. It is not uncommon for investors in Agency RMBS to obtain leverage equal to ten or more times equity through the use of repurchase agreement financing. Subject to market conditions, we anticipate that we may deploy, on a debt-to-equity basis, up to ten times leverage on our Agency RMBS; however, there is no specific limit on the amount of leverage that we may use. Leverage will magnify both the gains and the losses of our positions. Leverage will increase our returns as long as we earn a greater return on investments purchased with borrowed funds than our cost of borrowing such funds. However, if we use leverage to acquire an asset and the value of the asset decreases, the leverage will increase our losses. Even if the asset increases in value, if the asset fails to earn a return that equals or exceeds our cost of borrowing, leverage will decrease our returns. We may be required to post large amounts of cash as collateral or margin to secure our leveraged positions, including on our MSR financing facilities. In the event of a sudden, precipitous drop in value of our financed assets, we might not be able to liquidate assets quickly enough to repay our borrowings, further magnifying losses. Even a small decrease in the value of a leveraged asset may require us to post additional margin or cash collateral. This may adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations and decrease the cash available to us for distributions to stockholders.