Timberland Bancorp (TSBK) Risk Analysis

At September 30, 2024, $347.04 million, or 22.9% of our total loan portfolio was secured by one- to four-family mortgage loans and home equity loans. This type of lending is highly sensitive to regional economic conditions, which can affect borrowers' ability to meet their payment obligations and make loss levels difficult to predict. Factors such as higher interest rates, recessionary conditions, lower real estate sales volumes and prices, and elevated unemployment may lead to higher loan delinquencies, problem assets, and reduced demand for our products and services, adversely impacting our capital, liquidity, and financial condition. A decline in residential real estate values, particularly in the Washington housing market, may reduce the value of collateral securing these loans and increase our risk of loss if borrowers default. Some of our residential mortgage loans are secured by properties with little or no borrower equity, either due to high loan-to-value ratios at origination or declining home values. Loans with higher loan-to-value ratios are more sensitive to declining property values, resulting in a higher risk of default and loss. Additionally, for home equity lines of credit secured by second mortgages, recovering loan proceeds in the event of default may be difficult unless we repay the first mortgage, which may not be justified by the property's value. Consequently, we may experience higher rates of delinquency, default, and losses on our residential loans.

At September 30, 2024, we had $139.00 million, or 9.2%, of total loans in commercial business loans. Our business loans are primarily made based on borrowers' cash flow, with collateral as a secondary factor. However, the unpredictability of borrowers' cash flow and the fluctuating value of collateral, often in the form of accounts receivable, inventory, or equipment, present significant risks. Loans secured by accounts receivable are contingent on the borrower's ability to collect from their customers, while other collateral may depreciate, be challenging to assess, lack liquidity, and vary in value based on the success of the business. Additionally, economic fluctuations can significantly impact borrowers' repayment abilities, more so than loans secured by real estate.

Our current business strategy includes an emphasis on commercial real estate lending. This type of lending activity, while potentially more profitable than single-family residential lending, is generally more sensitive to regional and local economic conditions, making loss levels more difficult to predict. Collateral evaluation and financial statement analysis in these types of loans requires a more detailed analysis at the time of loan underwriting and on an ongoing basis. In addition, many of our commercial borrowers have more than one loan outstanding with us. Consequently, an adverse development with respect to one loan or one credit relationship can expose us to a significantly greater risk of loss. At September 30, 2024, we had $599.22 million of commercial real estate loans, representing 39.6% of our total loan portfolio. These loans typically involve higher principal amounts than other types of loans, and repayment is dependent upon income generated, or expected to be generated, by the property securing the loan in amounts sufficient to cover operating expenses and debt service, which may be adversely affected by changes in the economy or local market conditions. For example, if the cash flow from the borrower's project is reduced as a result of leases not being obtained or renewed, the borrower's ability to repay the loan may be impaired. Commercial real estate loans also expose a lender to greater credit risk than loans secured by residential real estate, because the collateral securing these loans typically cannot be sold as easily as residential real estate. In addition, many of our commercial real estate loans are not fully amortizing and contain large balloon payments upon maturity. Such balloon payments may require the borrower to either sell or refinance the underlying property to make the payment, which may increase the risk of default or non-payment. A secondary market for most types of commercial real estate loans is not readily liquid, so we have less opportunity to mitigate credit risk by selling part or all our interest in these loans. As a result of these characteristics, if we foreclose on a commercial real estate loan, our holding period for the collateral typically is longer than for one- to four-family residential mortgage loans because there are fewer potential purchasers of the collateral. Accordingly, charge-offs on commercial real estate loans may be larger as a percentage of the total principal outstanding than those incurred with our residential or consumer loan portfolios.

We specialize in real estate construction loans for individuals and builders, mainly focusing on residential property development. Our loans are initiated regardless of whether the property used as collateral is under a sales contract. As of September 30, 2024, our construction loans totaled $219.20 million, comprising 14.5% of our overall loan portfolio. These were allocated as follows: $172.00 million for residential real estate projects, $29.46 million for commercial projects, and $17.74 million for land development. Notably, approximately $132.10 million of our residential construction loans are structured to convert into permanent loans upon construction completion. Construction lending involves inherent risks due to estimating costs in relation to project values. Uncertainties in construction costs, market value, and regulatory impacts make accurately evaluating total project funds and loan-to-value ratios challenging. Factors like shifts in housing demand and unexpected building costs can significantly deviate actual results from estimates. Additionally, this type of lending often involves higher principal amounts and might be concentrated among a few builders. A downturn in housing or real estate markets could escalate delinquencies, defaults, foreclosures, and compromise collateral value. Some builders have multiple outstanding loans, meaning problems with one loan pose a substantial risk to us. Moreover, certain construction loans do not require borrower payments during the term, accumulating interest into the principal. Thus, repayment depends heavily on project success and the borrower's ability to sell, lease, or secure permanent financing, rather than their ability to repay principal and interest directly. Misjudging a project's value could leave us with inadequate security and potential losses upon completion. Actively monitoring construction loans, involving cost comparisons and on-site inspections, adds complexity and cost. Market interest rate hikes also might significantly impact construction loans, affecting end-purchaser borrowing costs, potentially reducing demand or the homeowner's ability to finance the completed home. Further, properties under construction are hard to sell and often need completion for successful sales, complicating problem loan resolution. This might require additional funds or engaging another builder, incurring additional costs and market risks. Moreover, speculative construction loans pose additional risks, especially regarding finding end-purchasers for finished projects. As of September 30, 2024, $11.50 million of our construction portfolio consisted of speculative one- to four-family construction loans. We also offer land loans for land acquisition, which can be used for building or recreational purposes. As of September 30, 2024, land loans accounted for $29.37 million, or 1.9% of our total loan portfolio. Loans for land development or future construction carry additional risks due to longer development periods, vulnerability to real estate value declines, economic fluctuations delaying projects, political changes affecting land use, and the collateral's illiquid nature. During this extended financing-to-completion period, the collateral often generates no cash flow. As of September 30, 2024, all our construction and land loans were performing according to their terms. A significant rise in non-performing construction or land loans could materially impact our financial condition and results of operations.

The sale of residential mortgage loans to Freddie Mac has historically provided a significant portion of our noninterest income. Any future changes in its program, including our eligibility to participate in such program, the criteria for loans to be accepted or laws that significantly affect the activity of Freddie Mac could, in turn, materially adversely affect our results of operations if we could not find other purchasers. Mortgage banking is generally considered a volatile source of income because it depends largely on the level of loan volume which, in turn, depends largely on prevailing market interest rates. In a rising or higher interest rate environment, the demand for mortgage loans, particularly refinancing of existing mortgage loans, tends to fall and our originations of mortgage loans may decrease, resulting in fewer loans that are available to be sold. This would result in a decrease in mortgage revenues and a corresponding decrease in non-interest income. In addition, our results of operations are affected by the amount of non-interest expense associated with our loan sale activities, such as salaries and employee benefits, occupancy, equipment and data processing expense and other operating costs. During periods of reduced loan demand, our results of operations may be adversely affected to the extent that we are unable to reduce expenses commensurate with the decline in loan originations. In addition, although we sell loans to Freddie Mac or into the secondary market without recourse, we are required to give customary representations and warranties about the loans we sell. If we breach those representations and warranties, we may be required to repurchase the loans and we may incur a loss on the repurchase.

Factors beyond our control can significantly influence the fair value of securities in our portfolio and can cause potential adverse changes to the fair value of these securities. These factors include, but are not limited to, rating agency actions in respect of the securities, defaults by, or other adverse events affecting, the issuer or with respect to the underlying securities, and changes in market interest rates and continued instability in the capital markets. The Company analyzes investment securities to determine whether there have been any events or economic circumstances to indicate that a security has incurred a credit-related loss. The Company considers many factors including recent events specific to the issuer or industry, and for securities, external credit ratings and recent downgrades. Credit component losses are reported in allowance for credit losses in the income statement when the present value of expected future cash flows is less than the amortized cost. Noncredit component losses are recorded in other comprehensive income (loss) when the Company (1) does not intend to sell the security or (2) is not more likely than not to have to sell the security prior to the security's anticipated recovery. There can be no assurance that the declines in market value will not result in ACL on investments, and lead to accounting charges that could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Our earnings and cash flows are largely dependent upon our net interest income. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors that are beyond our control, including general economic conditions and policies of various governmental and regulatory agencies and, in particular, the Federal Reserve. Since March 2022, in response to inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee ("FOMC") of the Federal Reserve has increased the target range for the federal funds rate by 475 basis points, including 50 basis points reduction during the 2024 fiscal year, to a range of 4.75% to 5.00% as of September 30, 2024. The FOMC has reduced the target federal funds rate by an additional 25 basis points in November of 2024 to the target federal funds rate and has not ruled out future decreases but hinted that rates will remain higher for longer. If the FOMC further decreases the targeted federal funds rate, overall interest rates will likely decrease, which may negatively impact our net interest income, but could positively impact both the housing market by increasing refinancing activity and new home purchases and the U.S. economy. We principally manage interest rate risk by managing our volume and mix of our earning assets and funding liabilities. Changes in monetary policy, including changes in interest rates, could influence not only the interest we receive on loans and investments and the amount of interest we pay on deposits and borrowings, but these changes could also affect: (1) our ability to originate and/or sell loans and obtain deposits; (2) the fair value of our financial assets and liabilities, which could negatively impact shareholders' equity, and our ability to realize gains from the sale of such assets; (3) our ability to obtain and retain deposits in competition with other available investment alternatives; (4) the ability of our borrowers to repay adjustable or variable rate loans; and (5) the average duration of our investment securities portfolio and other interest-earning assets.  If the interest rates paid on deposits and borrowings increase at a faster rate than the interest received on loans and other investments, our net interest income, and therefore earnings, could be adversely affected. Earnings could also be adversely affected if the interest rates received on loans and other investments decline more rapidly than the interest rates paid on deposits and other borrowings. In a changing interest rate environment, we may not be able to manage this risk effectively. If we are unable to manage interest rate risk effectively, our business, financial condition and results of operations could be materially affected. Changes in interest rates could also have a negative impact on our results of operations by reducing the ability of borrowers to repay their current loan obligations or by reducing our margins and profitability. Net interest margin is the difference between the yield we earn on interest-earning assets and the rate we pay for deposits and other sources of funding. Changes in interest rates (up or down) could adversely affect our net interest margin and, as a result, our net interest income. Although the yield we earn on our interest-earning assets and our funding costs tends to move in the same direction in response to changes in interest rates, one can rise or fall faster than the other, causing our net interest margin to expand or contract. Changes in the slope of the "yield curve," or the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates, could also reduce our net interest margin. Normally, the yield curve is upward sloping, meaning short-term rates are lower than long-term rates. Because our liabilities tend to be shorter in duration than our assets, when the yield curve flattens or even inverts, we could experience pressure on our net interest margin as our cost of funds increases relative to the yield we can earn on our assets. Also, interest rate decreases can lead to increased prepayments of loans and mortgage-backed securities as borrowers refinance their loans to reduce borrowing costs. Under these circumstances we are subject to reinvestment risk as we may have to redeploy such repayment proceeds into lower yielding investments, which would likely negatively impact our income. A sustained increase or decrease in market interest rates could adversely affect our earnings. As is the case with many financial institutions, our emphasis on increasing core deposits, those deposits bearing no or a relatively low rate of interest with no stated maturity, has resulted in our having a significant amount of these deposits which have a shorter duration than our assets. At September 30, 2024, we had $313.82 million in certificates of deposit that mature within one year and $1.28 billion in non-interest bearing, NOW checking, savings and money market accounts. We would incur a higher cost of funds to retain these deposits in a rising interest rate environment. If the interest rates paid on deposits and other borrowings increase at a faster rate than the interest rates received on loans and other investments, our net interest income, and therefore earnings, could be adversely affected. In addition, a substantial amount of our residential mortgage loans and home equity lines of credit have adjustable interest rates. As a result, these loans may experience a higher rate of default in a rising interest rate environment. Changes in interest rates also affect the value of our investment securities available for sale. Generally, the fair value of fixed-rate securities fluctuates inversely with changes in interest rates. Unrealized gains and losses on investment securities available for sale are reported as a separate component of equity, net of tax. Increases in the fair value of investment securities available for sale resulting from decreases in interest rates could have a positive effect on stockholders' equity. Stockholders' equity, specifically accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) ("AOCI"), is increased or decreased by the amount of change in the estimated fair value of our securities available for sale, net of deferred income taxes. Increases in interest rates generally decrease the fair value of securities available for sale, which adversely impacts stockholders' equity. Any substantial, unexpected or prolonged change in market interest rates could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, liquidity and results of operations. Also, our interest rate risk modeling techniques and assumptions likely may not fully predict or capture the impact of actual interest rate changes on our balance sheet or projected operating results. For further discussion of how changes in interest rates could impact us, see "Part II, Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk" for additional information about our interest rate risk management.

We are required by federal regulatory authorities to maintain adequate levels of capital to support our operations.  Our ability to raise additional capital, if needed, will depend on conditions in the capital markets at that time, which are outside our control, and on our financial condition and performance. If we are able to raise capital, it may not be on terms that are acceptable to us. Accordingly, we cannot make assurances that we will be able to raise additional capital if needed on terms that are acceptable to us, or at all.  If we cannot raise additional capital when needed, our ability to further expand our operations could be materially impaired and our financial condition and liquidity could be materially and adversely affected. In addition, any additional capital we obtain may dilute the interests of existing holders of our common stock. Further, if we are unable to raise additional capital when required by our bank regulators, we may be subject to adverse regulatory action.

Liquidity is essential to our business. We rely on several sources to meet our potential liquidity demands. Our primary sources of liquidity are increases in deposit accounts, cash flows from loan payments and our securities portfolio. Borrowings also provide us with a source of funds to meet liquidity demands. An inability to raise funds through deposits, borrowings, the sale of loans or other sources could have a substantial negative effect on our liquidity. Although we have historically been able to replace maturing deposits and borrowings if desired, we may not be able to replace such funds in the future if, among other things, our financial condition, the financial condition of the FHLB or FRB, or market conditions change. Factors that could detrimentally impact our access to liquidity sources include a decrease in the level of our business activity due to a downturn in the Washington markets in which our loans and deposits are concentrated, negative operating results, or adverse regulatory action against us. Our ability to borrow could also be impaired by factors that are not specific to us, such as a disruption in the financial markets or negative views and expectations about the prospects for the financial services industry or deterioration in credit markets. Any decline in available funding in amounts adequate to finance our activities or on terms which are acceptable could adversely impact our ability to originate loans, invest in securities, meet our expenses, or fulfill obligations such as repaying our borrowings or meeting deposit withdrawal demands, any of which could, in turn, have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. See "Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Liquidity" of this Form 10-K.

We obtain updated valuations in the form of appraisals and broker price opinions when a loan has been foreclosed and the property is taken in as OREO, and at certain other times during the asset's holding period. Our net book value ("NBV") in the loan at the time of foreclosure and thereafter is compared to the updated estimated market value of the foreclosed property less estimated selling costs (fair value). A charge-off is recorded for any excess in the asset's NBV over its fair value. If our valuation process is incorrect or if the property declines in value after foreclosure, the fair value of our OREO may not be sufficient to recover our NBV in such assets, resulting in the need for a valuation allowance. In addition, bank regulators periodically review any OREO we may have and may require us to recognize further valuation allowances. Significant charge-offs to our OREO may have an adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.