TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) Risk Factors

The grades and abundances of the seafloor polymetallic nodule deposits that we intend to develop and commercialize are estimates that may prove to be inaccurate. While limited samples have been collected and analyzed, there are no guarantees that our estimates of quality will hold true with respect to the polymetallic nodule deposits that we are able to collect from the seafloor. Actual nodule grades and abundances may vary from our estimates, which could have a material adverse impact on our projections for future revenues, cash flows, royalties, and development and operating expenditures. In addition, the precise form of mineral occurrence, grade, abundance, and tonnage, which is projected based on the mapping and analysis of samples, is not yet known. There is a risk that the sampling and imaging that has been completed to date, and that which will need to be completed in the future, has not and/or will not allow us to accurately quantify the tonnage, abundance and grade of identified polymetallic nodule deposits. Moreover, the projections or classifications based on such sampling could result in inaccurate environmental, geological or metallurgical assumptions (including with respect to the size, grade, abundance, and/or recoverability of minerals) or incorrect assumptions concerning economic recoverability.

Mineral resource exploration, development, and operations are highly speculative and are characterized by a number of significant risks, including, among other things, unprofitable efforts resulting not only from the failure to discover mineral resources, and from finding mineral resources which, though present, are insufficient in quantity and quality to return a profit from production. Once mineralization is discovered, it may take a number of years from the initial exploration phases before production is possible, during which time the potential feasibility of the project may change adversely. Substantial expenditures are required to establish mineral resources and reserves, to determine processes to collect and transport the minerals and, if required, to construct processing facilities. No deep-sea polymetallic properties in the CCZ that have been identified have as of today been developed into production. Exploration and exploitation risks exist in the discovery, location, definition and recovery of seafloor polymetallic nodule deposits. Given that no seafloor polymetallic nodule deposit has ever been commercially developed, such risks may have a material impact on our ability to accomplish our objectives. Operations may be affected by the availability of suitable vessels and equipment, prevailing sea conditions, changes in meteorological conditions and climate change, currents close to the seafloor and throughout the water column, recovery of materials sampled, lack of experience in delineating deposits, or unsuitability of equipment for recovering such material in prevailing conditions. Substantial expenditures are required to establish mineral reserves, to develop metallurgical processes, and to construct collection and transportation vessels, and we will be required to rely upon the expertise of consultants and others for exploration, development, construction and operational knowhow, and such consultants and third parties may not always be available to support our operations. If we are not able to obtain such expertise or identify alternative sources of expertise, our operations and financial results will be negatively impacted. While we believe that seafloor polymetallic nodules in the contract areas of our subsidiaries account for some of the world's largest aggregated estimated deposits of battery metals, no assurance can be given that minerals will be discovered in sufficient grade or quantities to justify commercial operations. Whether an exploration property will be commercially viable depends on a number of factors, including: the particular attributes of the deposit, such as size, grade and proximity to infrastructure; metal prices, which are highly cyclical; availability of and effectiveness of technology to recover, trans-ship, transport and process nodules; government regulations, including regulations relating to prices, taxes, royalties, land tenure, land use, and environmental protection; availability of required personnel, third-party partners and contractors, any required financing and commercial demand in the marketplace for such metals. The precise impact of these factors cannot accurately be predicted, but the combination of these factors may result in the inability of our subsidiaries to operate or generate an adequate return on invested capital. While we and our subsidiaries will evaluate the political and economic factors in determining an exploration strategy, there can be no assurance that significant restrictions will not be placed on intended development areas. Such restrictions may have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operation.

The polymetallic nodules that we may collect may require specialized equipment and processes in connection with the transfer of such nodules to transport vessels and delivery of the nodules to port. To date, we have not transferred significant quantities of nodules to transport vessels nor delivered significant quantities of nodules to port. The anticipated cost to develop this equipment and processes is significant. There is a risk that the equipment and/or processes necessary to transfer commercial quantities of nodules to transport vessels and deliver them to port may be economically prohibitive. Although we are currently negotiating with third-party shipping companies to transfer nodules to transport vessels and to deliver nodules to port, our future needs with respect to the required equipment and processes have yet to be fully determined, and as such, the capital costs, performance, reliability, and maintenance of such equipment and processes is currently uncertain and may be more expensive and take longer to develop than we currently estimate. In addition, the required equipment and processes may not be developed or become available at commercial scale in the time frame we require, which could have a material negative impact on our short-term operations and financial results.

Offshore collection and onshore processing and refining operations involve many hazards and uncertainties, including, among others: - technical and operational challenges in the offshore collection operations and scaling up of such operations;- challenges in and delays caused by transferring nodules to transport vessels and delivering nodules to port (including limited availability of and cost to secure the equipment to allow the activity);- industrial accidents;- unusual and unexpected maritime conditions;- unexpected seafloor conditions;- onshore metallurgical or other processing problems;- unexpected environmental conditions, including contamination or leakage;- periodic interruptions due to inclement or hazardous weather conditions or other acts of nature;- fire;- piracy and disruptive action by non-governmental actors opposed to deep-sea mineral extraction;- organized labor disputes or work slowdowns;- mechanical equipment failure and facility performance problems;- the availability of financing, market demand, critical technology and equipment, and skilled labor; and - the inability of suppliers to provide key process inputs like electricity, gas, coal and processing reagents on a timely basis at the prices that have been forecast. These occurrences could result in damage to, or destruction of, production facilities, personal injury or death, environmental damage, delays in processing, increased production costs, asset write downs, monetary losses and legal liability, any of which could have an adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition and adversely affect our projected development and production estimates. In addition, our operations could be interrupted by or negatively influenced by non-governmental actors which could negatively impact our or our subsidiaries' ability to operate in the CCZ and international markets, obtain capital, collect, transport, process or sell metals, or otherwise conduct business.

Our subsidiaries will need to rely on high-value equipment for the offshore collection and transport of materials. Notwithstanding the successful collector test completed in 2022, much of the commercial-scale equipment, particularly as it pertains to subsea engineering and recovery systems, has yet to have completion of engineering, and has not been constructed and fully tested, and may not be suitable or may prove unreliable, and may not be delivered to us on a timely basis, thereby delaying our contemplated timetable. We have not yet identified a third-party shipping company with the necessary equipment to transfer nodules to transport vessels and deliver nodules to port. Moreover, our future needs with respect to commercial-scale subsea engineering and recovery systems have yet to be fully determined, and as such, the capital costs, performance, reliability, and maintenance associated with the necessary equipment is currently unknown. There can be no guarantees that the necessary commercial-scale subsea engineering and recovery systems can be developed, or if developed, that such systems will be deployable in an economically viable manner. Any equipment downtime or delayed mobilization of equipment may impact operations. Additionally, as we launch exploration, collection, and development initiatives, our subsidiaries may need to compete for the availability of suitable vessels and equipment, even though we have a close commercial relationship with our partners, there is a risk that certain vessels and equipment will be under long-term charter and will thus not be available to them when needed, if at all.

Deep-sea mineral exploration and collection activities are inherently difficult and dangerous and may be delayed or suspended by severe weather events, sea conditions or other natural hazards, including volcanos, storms, hurricanes, tsunamis and unpredictable weather patterns. In addition, even though sea conditions in a particular location may be somewhat predictable, the possibility exists that unexpected conditions may occur that adversely affect our operations. Nodule collection activities, including, without limitation, the transfer of nodules to transport vessels and delivery to port, may be subject to interruptions resulting from weather and related marine conditions that adversely affect our collection operations or the ports of delivery, and any such delays could have a material adverse effect on our business.

Efficient collection, transport and processing using modern techniques and equipment requires skilled technicians and engineers. In addition, our optimization and eventual downstream efforts will significantly increase the number of skilled operators, maintenance technicians, engineers and other personnel required to successfully operate our business. If we are unable to hire, train and retain the necessary number of skilled technicians, engineers and other personnel there could be an adverse impact on our labor costs and our ability to reach anticipated production levels in a timely manner, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations.

Parties carrying out exploration and collection operations in the CCZ must be sponsored by a State that is a member of the ISA. The Sponsoring States of our subsidiaries NORI and TOML are Nauru and Tonga, respectively. In addition, our subsidiary, DGE, has an exclusive contract with Marawa, which is sponsored by Kiribati, that permits DGE to conduct activities in connection with the exploration contract held by Marawa with the ISA. If any of these countries cease such sponsorship, our subsidiaries or their partners (as applicable) would need to seek sponsorship elsewhere, which could impact our operations as a group. There is a risk that a State sponsoring activities in a project area ceases to be a sponsor, or is not permitted to be a sponsor, or that NORI and TOML cease to remain as sponsored contractors by such State; and if an agreement cannot be reached with a substitute sponsoring State, or if we are unable to transfer our sponsorship to another State, such subsidiary could be forced to cease activities in the CCZ. Additionally, there is little jurisprudence or interpretative guidance regarding the application of the sponsorship regulations that are applicable to our business. For example, with respect to the question over the regulation of which State can impact the activities of any contractor (such as NORI or TOML), we have taken the view that incorporation, registration and the grant of nationality are critical factors, amongst others, notwithstanding the beneficial ownership of a subsidiary by its parent ("beneficial ownership"). While this position has not been challenged by our Sponsoring States or the ISA, certain organizations that oppose the deep-sea polymetallic nodule exploration and collecting industry have advocated for the use of a beneficial ownership test for state sponsorship, and there are no guarantees that our interpretation will be universally accepted in the future. The mineral exploration activities of our subsidiaries and their future project development prospects could be affected in varying degrees by political instability and changes in government regulation relating to foreign investment and the deep-sea polymetallic collecting business, including expropriation. Operations may also be affected in varying degrees by possible natural disasters in the region, terrorism, military conflict, crime, piracy, fluctuations in currency rates, and high inflation. In addition, from time to time, governments may nationalize private businesses, including companies such as ours. There can be no assurance that the governments of countries where we or our affiliates or third-party contractors operate or the governments with which our subsidiaries work in the CCZ will not nationalize companies such as ours and our assets in the future or impose burdensome obligations or restrictions. There can also be no assurance that the ISA will not impose burdensome obligations or restrictions on our business or our projects (or those of our affiliates and third-party contractors), or that they will not implement policies or regulations that would prevent us from accomplishing our objectives.

On March 4, 2023 the United Nations finalized the UN High Seas Treaty. The treaty does not replace or amend UNCLOS, or the authority of the ISA, and must be interpreted consistently with the rights granted by the Convention. To date, no commercial collection (also referred to as "mining," "exploitation" or "harvesting") of nodules has occurred on the seafloor in the area of the high seas beyond the limits of national jurisdiction (the "Area"), which includes the CCZ. Moreover, despite the release by the ISA of the Draft Regulations on Exploitation of Mineral Resources (the "Draft Regulations"), finalization of such regulations remains subject to approval and adoption by the ISA. Once adopted, these regulations will add to the legal and technical framework for exploitation of the polymetallic nodules in the NORI, TOML and Marawa contract areas. Section 1, paragraph 15 of the 1994 Agreement Relating to the Implementation of Part XI of UNCLOS (the "1994 Agreement") allows a member state whose national intends to apply for approval of a plan of work for exploitation to notify the ISA of such intention. This notice obliges the ISA to complete the adoption of exploitation regulations within two years of the request made by the member state. On June 25, 2021, Nauru submitted such a notice, with an effective date of July 9, 2021, to the ISA requesting that it complete the adoption of rules, regulations and procedures ("RRPs" or the "Mining Code") necessary to facilitate the approval of plans of work for exploitation in the Area. As a result of that notice, the ISA was required to adopt the relevant RRPs for exploitation by July 9, 2023. The ISA, however, did not adopt the RRPs for exploitation by the July 9, 2023 deadline. At its July 2023 session, the ISA released a road map for the finalization of the Mining Code, with a view to its adoption during the 30th session of the ISA in 2025. The road map included three scheduled ISA Council meetings through July 2024 to elaborate on the Mining Code. The Mining Code was not completed at the July 2024 ISA Council meetings and during these meetings, the ISA agreed to continue the negotiations of the Mining Code with a continued view to its adoption during the 30th session of the ISA in 2025. The ISA Council has scheduled two ISA Council meetings in March and July 2025 to progress the Mining Code and has agreed to continue working intersessionally to advance the text. Although we believe the ISA will adopt the Mining Code, there can be no assurances that the Mining Code will be adopted within this timeline, or at all, as a result of actions of ISA member States or otherwise. For example, at least 32 ISA member States out of the 169 ISA members have expressed reservations about the timing of commercialization of seafloor mineral resources and have called for a ban, moratorium, or precautionary pause on the commercialization of these resources. In addition, although the Draft Regulations and several supporting standards and guidelines are at an advanced stage, there remains uncertainty regarding the final form that these will take, as well as the impact that such regulations, standards and guidelines will have on our ability to meet our objectives. As the ISA Council did not complete the adoption and elaboration of the Mining Code by the prescribed deadline of July 9, 2023, pursuant to Section 1, Paragraph 15(c) of the Annex to the 1994 Agreement, if an application for a plan of work for exploitation is now submitted to the ISA, the ISA is nonetheless required to consider and provisionally approve such a plan of work based on: (i) the provisions of the UNCLOS; (ii) any rules, regulations and procedures that the ISA may have adopted provisionally, (iii) the basis of the norms contained in the UNCLOS and (iv) the terms and principles contained in the 1994 Agreement, including the principle of non-discrimination among contractors. NORI intends to submit an application to the ISA for an exploitation contract, which will include a plan of work for exploitation for the NORI contract area, expected to be filed on June 27, 2025. If the ISA has not adopted the final Mining Code by the time NORI submits this application, we believe that the ISA will review and provisionally approve the plan of work for exploitation included therein pursuant to Section 1, Paragraph 15(c) of the Annex to the 1994 Agreement discussed above. The ISA released its road map to finalize the Mining Code at its July 2023 session and at its July 2024 session agreed to continue the negotiations of the Mining Code with a continued view to its adoption during the 30th session of the ISA in 2025, however, it has also stated that the commercial exploitation of mineral resources in the ISA's jurisdictional area should not be carried out in the absence of RRPs relating to exploitation. In addition, there can be no assurances that the ISA will come to a consensus as to the interpretation of Section 1, Paragraph 15(c) of the Annex to the 1994 Agreement. Although we believe the ISA will accept and consider an application for a plan of work for exploitation in the absence of the final Mining Code, there is no consensus within the ISA as to the process to be followed for its consideration of such an application, including the involvement of the ISA's Legal and Technical Commission (LTC) and whether and how long the ISA could delay its consideration of an application past the proscribed 60-day period. As a result, and to provide clarity on the application review process and timeline, the Republic of Nauru, in consultation with NORI, has formally requested that this issue be added to the agenda of the Council's March 2025 meeting. We expect that this will allow Council to discuss and approve the process to be confirmed prior to NORI's expected application submission date of June 27, 2025.  In light of some ISA Member States calling for a ban, moratorium or precautionary pause on the commercialization of seafloor mineral resources, there can be no assurance that the ISA will provisionally approve our plan of work for exploitation, within one year from submission thereof, or at all, or that such provisional approval would lead to the issuance of an exploitation contract with the ISA. On August 2, 2024, the ISA Assembly elected Leticia Carvalho of Brazil as the new Secretary-General of the ISA for the period 2025-2028. There can be no assurances that the ISA's stated target for adoption of the Mining Code of 2025 will be met or that any application for an exploitation contract will be approved before the final Mining Code is adopted. The collection of polymetallic nodules within the CCZ, where our exploration areas are located, will require approval of an ISA Exploitation Contract (which will authorize commercial collection activities). As part of the application for an ISA Exploitation Contract, all contractors are required to complete baseline studies and an Environment and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA), culminating in an EIS, prior to collecting nodules at a commercial scale. The EIS would be accompanied by an Environmental Monitoring and Management Plan (EMMP) which is expected to specify the objectives and purpose of all monitoring requirements, the components to be monitored, frequency of monitoring, methods of monitoring, analysis required in each monitoring component, monitoring data management and reporting. In order to move our exploration projects into commercial production, our wholly owned subsidiaries, NORI and TOML will each need to conclude an exploitation contract with the ISA, as will our partner, Marawa, in addition to obtaining related permits that may be required by our commercial partners. There can be no assurance that the ISA will approve our application for a plan of work for exploitation and issue an exploitation contract to our subsidiaries in a timely manner or at all. Even if the ISA timely evaluates such applications(s), our subsidiaries may be required to submit a supplementary EIS or perform additional studies or campaigns before obtaining approval. As such, there is a risk that an exploitation contract may not be granted by the ISA, may not be granted on a timely basis, thereby delaying our potential timeline for commercial exploitation, or may be granted on uneconomic terms. Similarly, with respect to sponsoring State regulation, no assurance can be given that new rules and regulations will not be enacted or that existing rules and regulations will not be applied in a manner that would limit or curtail production or development by our subsidiaries. Amendments to current laws and regulations governing the operations and activities of deep-sea mineral resources companies, or changes in interpretation thereto, or the unwillingness of countries throughout the world to enforce such laws and regulations, could have a material adverse impact on our business, and could cause increases in exploration expenses, capital expenditures, production costs, or put the security of our equipment at risk to activism or piracy. Such amendments could also cause reductions in our future production, or the delay or abandonment in the development of our polymetallic mineral resource properties. There can be no certainty that actions by governmental and regulatory authorities, including changes in regulation, taxation and other fiscal regimes, will not adversely impact our projects or our business. Further, our operations depend on the continuation of the sponsorship agreements between our subsidiaries NORI and TOML and each of their host Sponsoring States, Tonga and Nauru, respectively. Each subsidiary has been registered and incorporated within such host nation and each host nation has maintained effective control, supervision, regulation, and sponsorship over the conduct of such subsidiary. While we have beneficial ownership over such subsidiaries, each subsidiary operates under the regulation and sponsorship of Nauru and Tonga. If such arrangement is challenged, or sponsorship is terminated, we may have to restructure the ownership or operations of such subsidiary to ensure continued State sponsorship. Failure to maintain sponsorship, or secure new state sponsorship, will have a material impact on such subsidiary and on our overall business and operations. While the rates of payments are yet to be set by the ISA, the 1994 Agreement prescribes a relevant framework that the rates of payments "shall be within the range of those prevailing in respect of land-based mining of the same or similar minerals in order to avoid giving deep seabed miners an artificial competitive advantage or imposing on them a competitive disadvantage." The ISA has held workshops with stakeholders to discuss and seek comments on the potential financial regime for the collecting of polymetallic nodules in the CCZ. There can be no assurance that the ISA will put in place a Mining Code in a timely manner or at all. Such regulations may also impose burdensome obligations or restrictions on us, and/or may contain terms that do not enable us to develop our projects. In August 2024, as a result of a new process established by the LTC to identify contractors who may be at risk of non-compliance with obligations under their respective exploration contract, the ISA sent notifications of such potential risk of non-compliance to multiple contractors, including TOML and Marawa. The LTC's notification to TOML cited concerns, which relate mainly to the failure to conduct planned sampling campaigns, the need to submit digital data in the revised reporting templates, delays in surveys for environmental baseline development, and the delay in submission of its scoping report. TOML is in the process of responding to the notification and is positioned to take corrective action if necessary. The Company is confident that its response and corrective action(s) (if any) will be satisfactory to rectify the LTC's concerns regarding TOML; however, no assurances can be given that the LTC will be fully satisfied. If the LTC deems TOML's response insufficient or incomplete, or if TOML fails to respond, the LTC, in line with ISAB/29/LTC/5, may report TOML to Council for further consideration and action. If TOML is deemed to have not remedied all issues raised by the LTC, there is a risk of non-compliance and the ISA suspending some or all rights granted under the exploration license, which could include halting exploration activities, and in severe cases, termination of the exploration contract, which could have a material and adverse effect on our future business prospects and financial condition. The LTC's notification to Marawa cited concerns, which relate mainly to the lack of expedition work, absence of study activities or data submission, failure to provide a detailed exploration strategy, delays in conducting planned research cruises, and insufficient analysis of biological samples. If the LTC deems Marawa's response insufficient or incomplete, or if Marawa fails to respond, the LTC, in line with ISAB/29/LTC/5, may report Marawa to Council for further consideration and action. If Marawa is deemed to have not remedied all issues raised by the LTC, there is a risk of non-compliance and the ISA suspending some or all rights granted under the exploration license, which could include halting exploration activities, and in severe cases, termination of the exploration contract.

Because our revenue is expected to be from the collection and processing of minerals, changes in demand for, and taxes and other tariffs and fees imposed upon, such minerals and derived mineral products (most notably, nickel, manganese, copper, and cobalt) could significantly affect our profitability. A prolonged or significant economic contraction in the U.S., China or worldwide could put downward pressure on market prices of minerals. Protracted periods of low prices for minerals could significantly reduce revenues and the availability of required development funds in the future. This could cause substantial reductions to, or a suspension of, our exploration, collecting and production operations, and impair asset values. Demand for our minerals may be impacted by changes in supply dynamics and sources, and changes in demand for downstream products, including batteries for EV and energy storage that consume high volumes of the metals we intend to produce, as well as demand for manganese alloys used in steel-making, the targeted market for most of our manganese production. Lack of growth or material increases in new sources of supply in this or in any other related markets may adversely affect the demand for our minerals and any related products, and if the market for these critical existing and emerging technologies does not grow as we expect, grows more slowly than we expect, or if the demand for our products in these markets decreases, then our business, prospects, financial condition and operating results could be harmed. Notably, our financial success in part will depend in part on the expansion of the global manganese market to consume the additional volume of manganese that we intend to produce. In contrast, extended periods of high commodity prices may create economic dislocations that could be destabilizing to the supply and demand of minerals, and ultimately to the broader markets. Periods of high market prices for our minerals are generally beneficial to our financial performance. However, strong prices also create economic pressure to identify or create new sources of supply and alternate technologies requiring consumption of metals that ultimately could depress future long-term demand for nickel, cobalt, copper and related products, and at the same time may incentivize development of competing properties.

Our ability (or that of our partners) to obtain necessary patents is uncertain, and the legal protection to be afforded by any patents we (or they) may be issued in the future may not adequately protect our (or their) rights or permit us (or them) to gain or keep any competitive advantage necessary for our operations or our partnerships. In addition, the specific content required of patents and patent applications that are necessary to support and interpret patent claims is highly uncertain due to the complex nature of the relevant legal, scientific and factual issues. Changes in either patent laws or interpretations of patent laws in the U.S. or elsewhere may diminish the value of our intellectual property or narrow the scope of our patent protection. Even if patents are issued regarding our products and processes, our competitors may challenge the validity of those patents. Patents also will not protect our products and processes if competitors devise ways of making products without infringing our patents.