Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Risk Analysis

The Company has certain significant customers, particularly home centers and major retailers. In 2024, the two largest customers comprised approximately 28% of consolidated net sales, with U.S. and international mass merchants and home centers collectively comprising approximately 43% of consolidated net sales. The loss or material reduction of business, the lack of success of sales initiatives, or changes in customer or end-user preferences or loyalties for the Company's products, related to any such significant customer could have a material adverse impact on the Company's results of operations and cash flows. In addition, the Company's major customers are volume purchasers, a few of which are much larger than the Company, and have strong bargaining power with suppliers. This factor limits the ability to recover cost increases through higher selling prices. Furthermore, unanticipated inventory adjustments by these customers can have a negative impact on the Company's net sales. In times of tough economic conditions, the Company has experienced significant distributor inventory corrections reflecting de-stocking of the supply chain associated with difficult credit markets. Such distributor de-stocking exacerbated sales volume declines pertaining to weak end-user demand and the broader economic recession. The Company's results may be adversely impacted in future periods by such customer inventory adjustments. Further, the inability to continue to penetrate new channels of distribution may have a negative impact on the Company's future results.

The Company generates approximately 38% of its revenues outside the U.S., including 16% from Europe and 13% from various emerging market countries. Each of the Company's segments generates sales in these marketplaces. While the Company believes any volatility in the European or emerging marketplaces might be offset to some degree by the relative stability in North America, the Company's future growth, profitability and financial liquidity could be affected, in several ways, including, but not limited to, the following: - depressed consumer and business confidence may decrease demand for products and services;- customers may implement cost reduction initiatives or delay purchases to address inventory levels;- significant declines in foreign currency values in countries where the Company operates could impact both the revenue growth and overall profitability in those geographies;- a devaluation of foreign currencies could have an effect on the creditworthiness (as well as the availability of funds) of customers in those regions impacting the collectability of receivables;- a devaluation of foreign currencies could have an adverse effect on the value of financial assets of the Company in the effected countries; and - the impact of an event or changes to political and economic conditions (individual country default, or break up of the Euro) could have an adverse impact on the global credit markets and global liquidity potentially impacting the Company's ability to access these credit markets and to raise capital or disrupting global energy supply or supply chains.

Substantially all of the Company's import operations are subject to customs requirements, trade restrictions and protection measures, and to tariffs, quotas and taxes on imports set by governments through mutual agreements, bilateral actions or, in some cases unilateral action, such as tariffs implemented by the U.S. government under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. In addition, the countries in which the Company's products and materials are manufactured or imported from (including importation into the U.S. of the Company's products manufactured overseas) may from time to time impose additional quotas, duties, tariffs or other restrictions on its imports (including restrictions on manufacturing operations) or adversely modify existing restrictions. Adverse changes in the Company's import costs and restrictions, or failure by the Company's suppliers to comply with customs regulations or similar laws, could harm the Company's business. Changes in governmental policy regarding international trade, including import and export regulation, sanctions, and international trade agreements, have negatively impacted the Company's business. Similar U.S. actions involving China, Mexico or other countries, and any corresponding retaliatory efforts, could be adopted or modified with little or no advanced notice, result in disruption to the Company's supply chain and an increase in supply chain costs that the Company may not be able to accurately assess and offset, which could in turn require the Company to increase its prices and, in the event customer demand declines as a result, adversely impact the Company's results of operations. For example, in 2018 the U.S. imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum as well as on goods imported from China and certain other countries, which resulted in retaliatory tariffs by China and other countries. Diplomatic and trade tensions between the U.S. and China remain high. Existing tariffs remain in effect and there is a possibility of further escalation of trade tensions or additional trade restrictions. Certain of the Company's competitors may be better positioned than the Company to withstand or react to these kinds of changes and other restrictions on global trade and as a result the Company could lose market share to such competitors. While the Company may be able to expand or shift sourcing options, such efforts are time consuming and would be difficult or impracticable for many products and may result in an increase in its manufacturing costs. The Company's operations are also subject to the effects of international trade agreements and regulations such as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and the activities and regulations of the World Trade Organization. Although these trade agreements generally have, and the Company has benefited from, positive effects on trade liberalization, sourcing flexibility and cost of goods by reducing or eliminating the duties and/or quotas assessed on products manufactured in a particular country, trade agreements, however, can also impose requirements that adversely affect the Company's business, such as setting quotas on products that may be imported from a particular country into key markets including the U.S. or the European Union ("EU"), or making it easier for other companies to compete, by eliminating restrictions on products from countries where the Company's competitors source products. The Company cannot predict if, and to what extent, other countries in which its products are currently manufactured or will be manufactured in the future, or countries into which its products are imported, will be subject to, or implement, additional or increased tariffs, new trade restrictions or other changes to existing international trade agreements, the impact of which the Company may not be able to accurately assess or effectively mitigate and any of which could have a material adverse impact on its business. In addition, efforts to withdraw from, or substantially modify, such agreements or arrangements, in addition to the implementation of more restrictive trade policies, such as more detailed inspections, import or export licensing requirements and exchange controls or new barriers to entry, could limit the Company's ability to capitalize on current and future growth opportunities in international markets, impair its ability to expand the business by offering new products, and could adversely impact its production costs, customer demand and relationships with customers and suppliers. Any of these consequences could have a material adverse effect on the Company's results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.

The Company maintains an awareness of and responsibility for the potential health and safety impacts on its customers and end users. The Company's product development processes include tollgates for product safety review, and extensive testing is conducted on product safety. Safety reviews are performed at various product development milestones, including a review of product labeling and marking to identify safety and operational hazards for the customer and end user. Despite safety and quality reviews, the Consumer Product Safety Commission or other applicable regulatory bodies may require, or the Company has voluntarily instituted and may in the future voluntarily institute, the recall, repair or replacement of the Company's products if those products are found not to be in compliance with applicable standards or regulations. The Company has also been, and may in the future be, subject to regulatory requirements and penalties concerning the Company's products. Any recall, repair, replacement or other corrective action could increase the Company's costs and adversely impact its reputation. Refer to Item 3. Legal Proceedings in Part I of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further information about legal proceedings involving recalled products.

The Company sponsors pension and other post-retirement defined benefit plans. The Company's defined benefit plan assets are currently invested in equity securities, government and corporate bonds and other fixed income securities, money market instruments and insurance contracts. The Company's funding policy is generally to contribute amounts determined annually on an actuarial basis to provide for current and future benefits in accordance with applicable law which require, among other things, that the Company make cash contributions to under-funded pension plans. During 2024, the Company made cash contributions to its defined benefit plans of approximately $41 million and expects to contribute approximately $30 million to its pension and other post-retirement benefit plans in 2025. There can be no assurance that the value of the defined benefit plan assets, or the investment returns on those plan assets, will be sufficient in the future. It is therefore possible that the Company may be required to make higher cash contributions to the plans in future years which would reduce the cash available for other business purposes, and that the Company will have to recognize a significant pension liability adjustment which would decrease the net assets of the Company and result in higher expense in future years. The fair value of the defined benefit plan assets on December 28, 2024 was approximately $1.7 billion.

There continues to be a lack of consistent environmental and climate related legislation and regulation, which creates economic and regulatory uncertainty. Increased international, regional, state and/or federal requirements or other stakeholder expectations has mandated, and could mandate in the future, more restrictive or expansive standards or more prescriptive and expansive reporting of environmental, social and governance metrics than the voluntary commitments and reporting the Company adopted. In addition, any such requirements or other stakeholder expectations could require changes to be implemented on a more accelerated time frame than the Company anticipates or could result in changes to the Company's business operations, supply chain and manufacturing processes. A number of governmental bodies have finalized, proposed or are contemplating legislative and regulatory changes in response to the potential effect of climate change, protection of the environment, human health and safety, and water and energy efficiency. Such legislation or regulation has increased, and may continue to increase, the Company's compliance burdens and associated costs, including potential increased costs passed along from its suppliers. Additionally, such legislation has and potentially could include provisions for a "cap and trade" system of allowances and credits or a carbon tax or require increased measurement of metrics and disclosure, among other provisions. If carbon tax legislation is changed or adopted, the Company may not be able to mitigate the future impact of carbon tax through its emissions reduction initiatives or other measures. If environmental laws or regulations are either changed or adopted and impose significant operational restrictions and compliance requirements on the Company, they may have a material adverse effect on the Company's business, access to credit, capital expenditures, operating results and financial condition. The Company also faces risks related to the transition to a lower-carbon economy, such as its ability to successfully adopt new technology, meet market-driven demands for low carbon, carbon neutral and renewable energy technology, or to comply with more stringent and increasingly complex environmental regulations or requirements for the Company's manufacturing facilities and business operations, increased prices related to freight and shipping costs and other permitting requirements. In addition, many of the Company's products incorporate battery technology. As the world moves towards a lower-carbon economy and as other industries begin to adopt similar battery technology for use in their products or increase their current consumption of battery technology, the increased demand could place capacity constraints on the Company's supply chain. Furthermore, increased demand for battery technology may also increase the costs to the Company for both the battery cells as well as the underlying raw materials such as cobalt and lithium, among others. If the Company is unable to mitigate any possible supply constraints or related increased costs or drive alternative technology through innovation, its profitability and financial results could be negatively impacted.