The drybulk shipping industry is cyclical with attendant volatility in charter rates, vessel values and profitability. The industry is cyclical in nature due to seasonal fluctuations, market adjustments in supply of and demand for drybulk vessels and trade disruptions. We expect this cyclicality and volatility in market rates to continue in the foreseeable future. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that the drybulk charter market will reach in the near future the levels previously experienced. The market could experience a downturn in case of a new wave of Covid-19, or as a result of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the war between Israel and Hamas and the Red Sea trade disruption, or for other reasons. For example, in 2008, the Baltic Dry Index (the "BDI"), had reached an all-time high of 11,793, while in 2016, BDI had reached an all-time low of 290. During 2023 and 2024, BDI remained volatile, reaching an annual low of 530 on February 16, 2023 and an annual high of 3,346 on December 4, 2023, for 2023, and a low of 1,308 on January 17, 2024 and a high of 2,110 on January 5, 2024, thus far in 2024.
We charter some of our vessels in the spot charter market for periods up to three months and in the period charter market for longer periods. The spot market is highly competitive and volatile, while period time charter contracts of longer duration provide income at pre-determined rates over more extended periods of time. We are exposed to changes in spot charter market each time one of our vessels is completing a previously contracted charter, and we may not be able to secure period time charters at profitable levels. Furthermore, we may be unable to keep our vessels fully employed. Charter rates available in the market may be insufficient to enable our vessels to be operated profitably. A significant decrease in charter rates would adversely affect our profitability, cash flows, asset values and ability to pay dividends.
As of February 16, 2024, 29 of our 47 owned drybulk vessels were deployed or scheduled to be deployed on period time charters of more than three months remaining term. In addition, we have entered into agreements for the acquisition of seven GHG-EEDI Phase 3 NOx-Tier III drybulk newbuilds, including two methanol dual fueled, scheduled to be delivered one in 2024, two in 2025, three in 2026 and one in 2027. None of the newbuilds on order currently have any contracted charter. As more vessels become available for employment, we may have difficulty entering into multi-year, fixed-rate time charters for our vessels, and as a result, our cash flows may be subject to volatility in the long-term. We may be required to enter into variable rate charters or charters linked to the Baltic Panamax Index or Baltic Capesize Index, as opposed to contracts based on fixed rates, which could result in a decrease in our cash flows and net income in periods when the market for drybulk shipping is depressed. If low charter rates in the drybulk market prevail during periods when we must replace our existing charters, it will have an adverse effect on our revenues, profitability, cash flows and our ability to comply with the financial covenants in our loan and credit facilities.
The factors affecting the supply and demand for drybulk vessels are outside of our control and are difficult to predict with confidence. As a result, the nature, timing, direction and degree of changes in industry conditions are also unpredictable.
Factors that influence demand for drybulk vessel capacity include:
- demand for and production of drybulk products;- supply of and demand for energy resources and commodities;- epidemics or pandemics such as Covid-19 and related factors;- global and regional economic and political conditions, armed conflicts such as the war between Russia and Ukraine and the war between Israel and Hamas, natural or other disasters (including weather conditions), terrorist activities and strikes;- environmental, climate and other regulatory developments;- the location of regional and global exploration, production and manufacturing facilities and the distance drybulk cargoes are to be moved by sea;- changes in seaborne and other transportation patterns including shifts in the location of consuming regions for energy resources, commodities, and transportation demand for drybulk transportation;- sanctions, embargoes, import and export restrictions, nationalizations and wars, including those arising as a result of the war between Russia and Ukraine and the war between Israel and Hamas;- trade disputes or the imposition of tariffs on various commodities or finished goods tariffs on imports and exports that could affect the international trade; and - currency exchange rates.
Factors that influence the supply of drybulk vessel capacity include:
- the size of the newbuilding orderbook;- availability of financing for new vessels;- the number of newbuild deliveries, including slippage in deliveries, which, among other factors, relates to the ability of shipyards to deliver newbuilds by contracted delivery dates and the ability of purchasers to finance such newbuilds;- the scrapping rate of older vessels, depending, amongst other things, on more stringent environmental regulations, scrapping rates and international scrapping regulations;- Port lockdowns for any reason, higher crew cost and travel restrictions imposed by governments around the world;- port and canal congestion;- the speed of vessel operation which may be influenced by several reasons including energy cost and environmental regulations;- sanctions;- the number of vessels that are in or out of service, delayed in ports for several reasons, laid-up, dry docked awaiting repairs or otherwise not available for hire, including due to vessel casualties;- changes in environmental and other regulations that may limit the useful lives of vessels or effectively cause reductions in the carrying capacity of vessels or early obsolescence of tonnage; and - ability of the Company to maintain ESG practices acceptable to customers, regulators and financing sources.
Factors influencing the supply of and demand for shipping capacity are outside of our control, and we may not be able to correctly assess the nature, timing and degree of changes in industry conditions. We anticipate that the future demand for our drybulk vessels and, in turn, drybulk charter rates, will be dependent, among other things, upon economic growth in the world's economies, any trade restrictions between economies, seasonal and regional changes in demand, changes in the capacity of the global drybulk vessel fleet and the sources and supply of drybulk cargo to be transported by sea. However, new factors may emerge which we cannot foresee at this time and thus might not be able to adequately prepare for. A decline in demand for commodities transported in drybulk vessels or an increase in supply of drybulk vessels could cause a significant decline in charter rates, which could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. There can be no assurance as to the sustainability of future economic growth, if any, due to unexpected demand shocks.