The financial returns on our ethanol investments are highly dependent on commodity prices, especially prices for corn, natural gas, ethanol, distillers grains, distillers corn oil and gasoline, and availability of corn. As a result of the volatility of the prices for these items, our returns may fluctuate substantially and our investments could experience periods of declining prices for their products and increasing costs for their raw materials, which could result in operating losses at our ethanol plants.
The gross margin at our ethanol plants depends principally on the spread between ethanol, distillers grains, distillers corn oil, and corn prices. Fluctuations in the spread are likely to continue to occur. A sustained narrow or negative spread, whether as a result of sustained high or increased corn prices or sustained low or decreased ethanol prices, would adversely affect the results of operations at our ethanol plants.
Our returns on ethanol investments are highly sensitive to corn prices.
Corn is the principal raw material our ethanol plants use to produce ethanol and by-products. As a result, changes in the price of corn can significantly affect our businesses. Rising corn prices result in higher production costs of ethanol and by-products. Because ethanol competes with non-corn-based fuels, our ethanol plants may not be able to pass along increased grain costs to our customers. At certain levels, grain prices may make ethanol uneconomical to produce.
The price of corn is influenced by weather conditions and other factors affecting crop yields, transportation costs, farmer planting decisions, exports, foreign production, the value of the U.S. dollar, and general domestic and foreign economic, market and regulatory factors, including, but not limited to, the impacts from the Russian-Ukraine conflict as well as other conflicts and political unrest, both foreign and domestic. These factors include government policies and subsidies with respect to agriculture and international trade and global and local demand and supply. The significance and relative effect of these factors on the price of corn is difficult to predict. Any event that tends to negatively affect the production and/or supply of corn, such as adverse weather or crop disease, could increase corn prices and potentially harm the business of our ethanol plants, to include intermittent production slowdowns or stoppages. Increasing domestic ethanol production could boost the demand for corn and result in increased corn prices. International demand for corn could also result in higher corn prices. Our ethanol plants may also have difficulty, from time to time, in physically sourcing corn on economic terms due to regional supply shortages, transportation issues, delays in farmer marketing decisions or unfavorable local pricing. The corn harvest near our NuGen facility for 2022 was negatively impacted by dry weather and impacted the supply of corn until the 2023 harvest. Such a shortage or price impact could require our ethanol plants to suspend operations which would have a material adverse effect on our consolidated results of operations.
Our risk management strategies may be ineffective and may expose us to decreased profitability and liquidity.
In an attempt to partially offset the impact of volatility of commodity prices, we enter into: i) forward contracts to sell a portion of our ethanol, distillers grains, and distillers corn oil production and to purchase a portion of our corn and natural gas requirements and; ii) commodity futures and swap agreements. The financial impact of these risk management activities is dependent upon, among other items, the prices involved and our ability to receive or deliver the commodities involved. Risk management activities can result in financial loss when positions are purchased in a declining market or when positions are sold in an increasing market. In addition, we may not be able to match the appropriate quantity of corn contracts with quantities of ethanol, distillers grains and distillers corn oil contracts. Further, our results may be impacted by a mismatch of gains or losses associated with the positions during a reporting period when the physical commodity purchase or sale has not yet occurred. We vary the amount and type of risk management techniques we utilize, and we may choose not to engage in any risk management activities. Should we fail to properly manage the inherent volatility of commodity prices, our results of operations and financial condition may be adversely affected.
The market for natural gas is subject to market conditions that create uncertainty in the price and availability of the natural gas that our ethanol plants use in their manufacturing process.
Our ethanol plants rely upon third parties for their supply of natural gas, which is consumed as fuel in the production process. The prices for and availability of natural gas are subject to volatile market conditions. These market conditions often are affected by factors beyond the ethanol plants' control, such as weather conditions, overall economic conditions, export market, governmental regulation and foreign and domestic relations, including, but not limited to, the impacts from the Russian-Ukraine conflict. Significant disruptions in the supply of natural gas could impair or completely prevent the ethanol plants' ability to economically manufacture ethanol for their customers. Furthermore, increases in natural gas prices may adversely affect results of operations and financial position at our ethanol plants.
Fluctuations in the selling price of commodities may reduce profit margins at our ethanol plants.
Ethanol is marketed as a fuel additive to reduce vehicle emissions from gasoline, as an octane enhancer to improve the octane rating of gasoline with which it is blended and, to a lesser extent, as a gasoline substitute. As a result, ethanol prices are influenced by the supply and demand for gasoline, and our ethanol plants' results of operations and financial position may be materially adversely affected if gasoline demand decreases or the price of gasoline declines making ethanol less economical.
Distillers grains compete with other protein-based animal feed products. The price of distillers grains may decrease when the prices of competing feed products decrease. The prices of competing animal feed products are based in part on the prices of the commodities from which these products are made. Historically, sales prices for distillers grains have tracked along with the price of corn. However, there have been instances when the price increase for distillers grains has lagged increases in corn prices.
The production of distillers grains has increased as a result of increases in dry mill ethanol production in the United States. This could lead to price declines in what we can sell our distillers grains for in the future. Such declines could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations.
Pricing of distillers corn oil is primarily driven by the demand from renewable diesel, biodiesel, and to some extent, sustainable aviation fuel markets. Distillers corn oil is marketed as a low-carbon feedstock to be used in these markets which may see expanded demand due to the extended blending tax credit, credits included in the Inflation Reduction Act and growing Low Carbon Fuel Standard ("LCFS") markets, resulting in an impact to distillers corn oil demand. With a lower CI score, distillers corn oil may see improved pricing compared to heating oil and soybean oil, which it has traditionally tracked closely in price. Alternatively, other feedstocks such as cooking oil and animal fats, with lower CI scoring, could be preferred over distillers corn oil. A decrease in the price of or demand for distillers corn oil could negatively impact our results of operations.