We establish reserves as balance sheet liabilities, representing our estimates of amounts needed to resolve reported and unreported losses and pay related loss adjustment expenses. Our largest liability is our reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses. Due to the size of our reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses, even a small percentage adjustment to our reserve can have a material effect on our results of operations for the period in which the change is made.
The process of estimating loss reserves is complex and highly judgmental. Significant periods of time may elapse between the occurrence of an insured loss, the reporting of the loss by the insured and payment of that loss. Ultimate loss costs, even for claims with similar characteristics, can vary significantly depending upon many factors including but not limited to the nature of the claim, including whether the claim is an individual or a mass tort claim, the personal situation of the claimant or the claimant's family, the outcome of jury trials, the legislative and judicial climate where the insured event occurred, general economic conditions and, for claims involving bodily injury, the trend of healthcare costs. Consequently, the loss cost estimation process requires actuarial skill and the application of judgment and such estimates require periodic revision. As part of the reserving process, we review the known facts surrounding reported claims as well as historical claims data and consider the impact of various factors such as:
- for reported claims, the nature of the claim and the jurisdiction in which the claim occurred;- trends in paid and incurred loss development;- trends in claim frequency and severity;- emerging economic and social trends;- trends in healthcare costs for claims involving bodily injury;- monetary, social and medical inflation and levels of employment; and - changes in the regulatory, legal and political environment.
The effect of COVID-19 on recent historical trends regarding timing and severity of claims may also impact certain of these factors and our ultimate estimation of losses; however, the extent to which COVID-19 impacts these factors is highly uncertain and cannot be predicted. As a result of COVID-19, the industry has experienced new conditions, including changes in settlement trends due to the effect of the postponement of court cases during the pandemic.
Our reserving process assumes that past experience, adjusted for the effects of current developments and anticipated trends, is an appropriate, but not necessarily accurate, basis for predicting future events. There is no precise method for evaluating the impact of any specific factor on the adequacy of reserves, and actual results are likely to differ from original estimates. We evaluate our reserves each period and increase or decrease reserves as necessary based on our estimate of future claims payments. An increase to reserves has a negative effect on our results of operations in the period of increase whereas a reduction to reserves has a positive effect on our results of operations in the period of reduction.
Our loss reserves also may be affected by court decisions that expand liability of our policies after they have been issued. Further, a significant jury award or series of awards against one or more of our insureds could require us to pay large sums of money in excess of our reserved amounts. Due to uncertainties inherent in the jury system, any case that is litigated to a jury verdict has the potential to incur a loss that has a material adverse effect on our results of operations. Additionally, our loss reserves may be impacted by social inflation, which is generally described as the rising costs of insurance claims resulting from factors including, but not limited to, increasing litigation, broader definitions of liability, more plaintiff-friendly legal decisions, jury behavior, and larger compensatory jury awards and non-economic damages. These factors, could lead to greater than anticipated claims and claim handling expenses which could exceed our established reserves causing us to increase our loss reserves, as discussed above.
Both the effects of inflation overall as well as medical inflation could cause the cost of claims to rise in the future. Our loss reserves include assumptions about future payments for settlement of claims and claims handling expenses, such as medical treatments and litigation costs. For our workers' compensation reserves, healthcare wage inflation and medical advancements may also increase the cost of claims. To the extent inflation causes these costs to increase above reserves established for these claims, we will be required to increase our loss reserves with a corresponding reduction in our financial results in the period in which the need for additional reserves is identified.
We purchase reinsurance to mitigate the effect of large losses. Our receivable from reinsurers on unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses represents our estimate of the amount of our reserve for losses that will be recoverable under our reinsurance programs. We base our estimate of funds recoverable upon our expectation of ultimate losses and the portion of those losses that we estimate to be allocable to reinsurers based upon the terms and conditions of our reinsurance agreements. Given the uncertainty of the ultimate amounts of our losses, our estimates of losses and related amounts recoverable may vary significantly from the eventual outcome. Also, for certain of our reinsurance agreements, we estimate premiums ceded to the reinsurer, subject to certain maximums and minimums, based in part on losses reimbursed or to be reimbursed under the agreement. Due to the size of our reinsurance balances, changes to our estimate of the amount of reinsurance that is due to us could have a material effect on our results of operations in the period for which the change is made.