Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] (OVLY) Risk Analysis

We make assumptions, judgments and estimates for a number of items, including the fair value of financial instruments, goodwill and other intangible assets, the realizability of deferred tax assets, the fair value of stock awards, the allowances for loan losses, income tax provisions and determination, recognition and measurement of impaired loans. These assumptions, judgments and estimates are drawn from historical experience and various other factors that we believe are reasonable under the circumstances as of the date of the consolidated financial statements. Actual results could differ materially from our estimates, and such differences could significantly impact our financial results.

If our estimates of the fair value of our reporting units change as a result of changes in our business or other factors, we may determine that a goodwill impairment charge is necessary. Estimates of fair value are based on a complex model using, among other things, estimated cash flows and industry pricing multiples. The Company tests its goodwill for impairment annually as of December 31 (the Measurement Date), and quarterly if a triggering event causes concern of a possible goodwill impairment charge. At each Measurement Date, the Company, in accordance with ASC 350-20-35-3, evaluates, based on the weight of evidence, the significance of all qualitative factors to determine whether it is more likely than not that the fair value of each of the reporting units is less than its carrying amount. The assessment of qualitative factors at the most recent Measurement Date (December 31, 2023), indicated that it was not more likely than not that impairment existed; as a result, no further testing was performed. No assurance can be given that the Company will not record an impairment loss on goodwill in the future and any such impairment loss could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.

We make our commercial and industrial loans primarily based on the identified cash flow of the borrower and secondarily on the underlying collateral provided by the borrower. Collateral securing commercial and industrial loans may depreciate over time, be difficult to appraise and fluctuate in value. In the case of loans secured by accounts receivable, the availability of funds for the repayment of these loans may be substantially dependent on the ability of the borrower to collect the amounts due from its customers.

We originate commercial real estate loans for individuals and businesses for various purposes, which are secured by commercial properties. These loans typically involve higher principal amounts than other types of loans, and repayment is dependent upon income generated, or expected to be generated, by the property securing the loan in amounts sufficient to cover operating expenses and debt service, which may be adversely affected by changes in the economy or local market conditions. For example, if the cash flow from the borrower's project is reduced as a result of leases not being obtained or renewed in a timely manner or at all, the borrower's ability to repay the loan may be impaired. Commercial real estate loans also expose us to greater credit risk than loans secured by residential real estate because the collateral securing these loans typically cannot be sold as easily as residential real estate. In addition, many of our commercial real estate loans are not fully amortizing and contain large balloon payments upon maturity. Such balloon payments may require the borrower to either sell or refinance the underlying property in order to make the payment, which may increase the risk of default or non-payment. If we foreclose on a commercial real estate loan, our holding period for the collateral typically is longer than for residential mortgage loans because there are fewer potential purchasers of the collateral. Additionally, commercial real estate loans generally have relatively large balances to single borrowers or groups of related borrowers. Accordingly, if we make any errors in judgment in the collectability of our commercial real estate loans, any resulting charge-offs may be larger on a per loan basis than those incurred with our residential or consumer loan portfolios.

As of December 31, 2023, consumer and commercial real estate loans constituted 90% of our loan portfolio, of which 97% were commercial real estate loans. Our real estate portfolio is subject to certain risks, including (i) downturns in the California economy, (ii) significant interest rate fluctuations, (iii) reduction in real estate values in the California Central Valley, (iv) increased competition in pricing and loan structure, and (v) environmental risks, including natural disasters.  As a result of the high concentration of real estate loans in our loan portfolio, potential difficulties in the real estate markets could cause significant increases in nonperforming loans, which would reduce our profits. The market value of real estate can fluctuate significantly in a short period of time as a result of market conditions in the geographic area in which the real estate is located. A decline in real estate values could cause some of our mortgage loans to become inadequately collateralized, which would expose us to a greater risk of loss.  Real estate values and real estate markets are generally affected by changes in national, regional or local economic conditions, the rate of unemployment, fluctuations in interest rates and the availability of loans to potential purchasers, changes in tax laws and other governmental statutes, regulations and policies and acts of nature, such as earthquakes and other natural disasters. Additionally, a decline in real estate values could adversely affect our portfolio of commercial real estate loans and could result in a decline in the origination of such loans.

We seek to mitigate the risks inherent in our loan portfolio by adhering to specific underwriting practices, including: analyzing a borrower's credit history, financial statements, tax returns and cash flow projections; valuing collateral based on reports of independent appraisers; and verifying liquid assets. Although we believe that our underwriting criteria are, and historically have been, appropriate for the various kinds of loans we make, we have incurred losses on loans that have met these criteria, and may continue to experience higher than expected losses depending on economic factors and consumer behavior. In addition, our ability to assess the creditworthiness of our customers may be impaired if the models and approaches we use to select, manage, and underwrite our customers become less predictive of future behaviors. Finally, we may have higher credit risk, or experience higher credit losses, to the extent our loans are concentrated by loan type, industry segment, borrower type, or location of the borrower or collateral. Deterioration in real estate values and underlying economic conditions in the Central Valley and the Eastern Sierras could result in significantly higher credit losses to our portfolio.

The determination of the appropriate level of the allowance for credit losses inherently involves a high degree of subjectivity and requires us to make various assumptions and judgments about the collectability of our loan portfolio, including the creditworthiness of our borrowers and the value of the real estate and other assets serving as collateral for the repayment of many of our loans. In determining the amount of the allowance for credit losses, we review our loans and the loss and delinquency experience, and evaluate economic conditions and make significant estimates of current credit risks and future trends, all of which may undergo material changes. If our estimates are incorrect, the allowance for credit losses may not be sufficient to cover losses inherent in our loan portfolio, resulting in the need for additions to our allowance through an increase in the provision for credit losses. Deterioration in economic conditions affecting borrowers, new information regarding existing loans, identification of additional problem loans and other factors, both within and outside of our control, may require an increase in the allowance for credit losses. In addition, bank regulatory agencies periodically review our allowance for credit losses and may require an increase in the provision for credit losses or the recognition of further charge-offs (which will in turn also require an increase in the provision for credit losses if the charge-offs exceed the allowance for credit losses), based on judgments different than that of management. Any increases in the provision for credit losses will result in a decrease in net income and may have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

Lending money is a substantial part of our business. Every loan carries a certain risk that it will not be repaid in accordance with its terms or that any underlying collateral will not be sufficient to assure repayment. This risk is affected by, among other things: - cash flow of the borrower and/or the project being financed;   - in the case of a collateralized loan, the changes and uncertainties as to the future value of the collateral;   - the credit history of a particular borrower;   - changes in economic and industry conditions; and   - the duration of the loan. We maintain an allowance for credit losses which we believe is appropriate to provide for current expected credit losses inherent in our loan portfolio. The amount of this allowance is determined by our management through a periodic review and consideration of several factors, including, but not limited to: - an ongoing review of the quality, size and diversity of the loan portfolio;   - evaluation of non-performing loans;   - historical default and loss experience;   - historical recovery experience;   - existing economic conditions;   - reasonable and supportable forecasts that affect the collectability of reported amounts;   - risk characteristics of the various classifications of loans; and   - the amount and quality of collateral, including guarantees, securing the loans.

Recent federal budget deficit concerns and political conflict over legislation to raise the U.S. government's debt limit have increased the possibility of a default by the U.S. government on its debt obligations, related credit-rating downgrades, or an economic recession in the United States. As a result of uncertain political, credit and financial market conditions, including the potential consequences of the federal government defaulting on its obligations for a period of time due to federal debt ceiling limitations or other unresolved political issues, investments in financial instruments issued or guaranteed by the federal government pose credit default and liquidity risks. Given that future deterioration in the U.S. credit and financial markets is a possibility, losses or significant deterioration in the fair value of our U.S. government issued or guaranteed investments may occur. Downgrades to the U.S. credit rating could affect the stability of securities issued or guaranteed by the federal government and the valuation or liquidity of our portfolio of such investment securities, and could result in our counterparties requiring additional collateral for our borrowings. Further, unless and until U.S. political, credit and financial market conditions have been sufficiently resolved or stabilized, it may increase our future borrowing costs.

Actual events involving limited liquidity, defaults, non-performance or other adverse developments that affect financial institutions, transactional counterparties or other companies in the financial services industry or the financial services industry generally, or concerns or rumors about any events of these kinds or other similar risks, have in the past and may in the future lead to market-wide liquidity problems. For example, on March 10, 2023, Silicon Valley Bank ("SVB") was closed by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation, which appointed the FDIC as receiver. Similarly, on March 12, 2023, Signature Bank and Silvergate Capital Corp. were each swept into receivership. Although a statement by the Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC indicated that all depositors of SVB would have access to all of their money after only one business day of closure, including funds held in uninsured deposit accounts, it is not certain that the Federal Reserve or FDIC will treat future bank failures similarly. Hence, borrowers under credit agreements, letters of credit and certain other financial instruments with any financial institution that is placed into receivership by the FDIC may be unable to access undrawn amounts thereunder. In addition, if any of our customers, suppliers or other parties with whom we conduct business are unable to access funds pursuant to such instruments or lending arrangements with such a financial institution, such parties' ability to pay their obligations to us or to enter into new commercial arrangements requiring additional payments to us could be adversely affected. Inflation and rapid increases in interest rates have led to a decline in the trading value of previously issued government securities with interest rates below current market interest rates. Additionally, there is no guarantee that the U.S. Department of Treasury, FDIC and Federal Reserve Board will provide access to uninsured funds in the future in the event of the closure of other banks or financial institutions, or that they would do so in a timely fashion. There can be no assurance that there will not be additional bank failures or issues such as liquidity concerns in the broader financial services industry or in the U.S. financial system as a whole. Adverse financial market and economic conditions can exert downward pressure on stock prices, security prices, and credit availability for certain issuers without regard to their underlying financial strength. Any of these impacts, or any other impacts resulting from the factors described above or other related or similar factors, could have material adverse effect on our liquidity and our current and/or projected business operations and financial condition and results of operations.

We intend to pursue an organic growth strategy for our business. If appropriate opportunities present themselves, we may also engage in selected acquisitions of financial institutions, branch acquisitions and other business growth initiatives or undertakings. There can be no assurance that we will successfully execute our organic growth strategy, that we will be able to negotiate or finance such activities or that such activities, if undertaken, will be successful. There are risks associated with our growth strategy. To the extent that we grow through acquisitions, we cannot ensure that we will be able to adequately or profitably manage this growth. Acquiring other banks, branches or other assets, as well as other expansion activities, involves various risks including the risks of incorrectly assessing the credit quality of acquired assets, encountering greater than expected costs of integrating acquired banks or branches, the risk of loss of customers and/or employees of the acquired institution or branch, executing cost savings measures, not achieving revenue enhancements and otherwise not realizing the transaction's anticipated benefits. Our ability to address these matters successfully cannot be assured. There is also the risk that the requisite regulatory approvals might not be received and other conditions to consummation of a transaction might not be satisfied during the anticipated timeframes, or at all. In addition, our strategic efforts may divert resources or management's attention from ongoing business operations, may require investment in integration and in development and enhancement of additional operational and reporting processes and controls, and may subject us to additional regulatory scrutiny. To finance an acquisition, we may borrow funds, thereby increasing our leverage and diminishing our liquidity, or raise additional capital, which could dilute the interests of our existing stockholders. Our growth initiatives may also require us to recruit experienced personnel to assist in such initiatives. Accordingly, the failure to identify and retain such personnel would place significant limitations on our ability to successfully execute our growth strategy. In addition, to the extent we expand our lending beyond our current market areas, we could incur additional risks related to those new market areas. We may not be able to expand our market presence in our existing market areas or successfully enter new markets. If we do not successfully execute our growth plan, it could adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations, reputation and growth prospects. In addition, if we were to conclude that the value of an acquired business had decreased and that the related goodwill had been impaired, that conclusion would result in an impairment of goodwill charge to us, which would adversely affect our results of operations. While we believe we will have the executive management resources and internal systems in place to successfully manage our future growth, there can be no assurance growth opportunities will be available or that we will successfully manage our growth.

Our enterprise risk management framework seeks to mitigate risk and loss to us. We have established comprehensive policies and procedures and an internal control framework designed to provide a sound operational environment for the types of risk to which we are subject, including credit risk, market risk (interest rate and price risks), liquidity risk, operational risk, compliance risk, strategic risk, and reputational risk. However, as with any risk management framework, there are inherent limitations to our current and future risk management strategies, including risks that we have not appropriately anticipated or identified. In certain instances, we rely on models to measure, monitor and predict risks. However, these models are inherently limited because they involve techniques, including the use of historical data in some circumstances, and judgments that cannot anticipate every economic and financial outcome in the markets in which we operate, nor can they anticipate the specifics and timing of such outcomes. There is no assurance that these models will appropriately capture all relevant risks or accurately predict future events or exposures. Accurate and timely enterprise-wide risk information is necessary to enhance management's decision-making in times of crisis. If our enterprise risk management framework proves ineffective or if our enterprise-wide management information is incomplete or inaccurate, we could suffer unexpected losses, which could materially adversely affect our results of operations or financial condition. In addition, our businesses and the markets in which we operate are continuously evolving. We may fail to fully understand the implications of changes in our businesses or the financial markets or fail to adequately or timely enhance our enterprise risk framework to address those changes. If our enterprise risk framework is ineffective, either because it fails to keep pace with changes in the financial markets, regulatory requirements, our businesses, our counterparties, clients or service providers or for other reasons, we could incur losses, suffer reputational damage or find ourselves out of compliance with applicable regulatory or contractual mandates. An important aspect of our enterprise risk management framework is creating a risk culture in which all employees fully understand that there is risk in every aspect of our business and the importance of managing risk as it relates to their job functions. We continue to enhance our enterprise risk management program to support our risk culture, ensuring that it is sustainable and appropriate to our role as a major financial institution. Nonetheless, if we fail to create the appropriate environment that sensitizes all of our employees to managing risk, our business could be adversely impacted.