Orrstown Financial Services (ORRF) Risk Factors

To the extent that merger consideration, consisting of cash and shares of our common stock, exceeds the fair value of the net assets acquired, including identifiable intangibles, that amount will be reported as goodwill by us. In accordance with current accounting guidance, goodwill will not be amortized, but will be evaluated for impairment annually or more frequently as warranted by specific events or circumstances. A failure to realize the expected benefits of a merger could adversely impact the carrying value of the goodwill recognized in the merger and, in turn, negatively affect our financial results.

Material estimates that are particularly susceptible to significant change relate to the determination of the ACL, the fair value of certain financial instruments, particularly securities, and goodwill and purchase accounting. While we have identified those accounting policies that we consider critical and have procedures in place to facilitate the associated judgments, different assumptions in the application of these policies could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

The ACL is recorded as a reduction to loans and leases on the consolidated balance sheet, and the reserve for unfunded lending commitments is included in other liabilities on the consolidated balance sheet. While we believe that our ACL as of December 31, 2023 was sufficient to cover losses in the loan and lease portfolio on that date, we may need to increase our provision for credit losses in future periods due to changes in the risk characteristics of the loan and lease portfolio, thereby negatively impacting our results of operations. On January 1, 2023, the Company adopted ASU 2016-13, the current expected credit losses accounting standard commonly referred to as "CECL," which replaced the incurred loss model with the lifetime expected loss model. The CECL methodology requires an organization to measure all expected credit losses over the contractual term for financial assets measured at amortized cost, including loans, based on historical experience, current conditions, and reasonable and supportable forecasts. The adoption of the new CECL standard resulted in a cumulative-effect adjustment that increased the ACL for loans by $2.4 million and increased the off-balance sheet credit exposures reserve by $100 thousand. Retained earnings, net of deferred taxes, decreased by $2.0 million, and deferred tax assets increased by $559 thousand. As a result of the adoption of CECL standard, companies must recognize credit losses on these assets equal to management's estimate of credit losses over the assets' remaining expected lives. It is possible that our ongoing reported earnings and lending activity will be impacted negatively as a result of the application of CECL. The ACL is determined based on various factors impacting the quality of the loan and lease portfolio as indicated by our borrowers' financial condition, payment performance, the value of the underlying collateral, and the support from a guarantor, in addition to the impact from economic conditions, government macroeconomic policies, interest rates and the regulatory environment. The experience and expertise of our loan officers, credit analysts and special assets group are essential to performing credit quality reviews, in addition to analyzing trends in delinquencies, levels of non-accruing and criticized loans and leases and modifications to loan terms. The ACL may also be influenced by other factors, including concentrations by the type of loan, collateral, borrower or location of the collateral or borrower. Such concentrations could increase the possibility that similarly situated borrowers and their collateral may collectively be affected by certain economic conditions. Determining the ACL inherently involves a high degree of subjectivity and requires us to make significant estimates of current credit risks and trends, all of which may undergo material changes. We cannot be sure that we will be able to identify deteriorating credits before they become nonperforming assets or that we will be able to limit losses on those loans and leases that are identified. We have in the past been, and in the future may be, required to increase our ACL for any of several reasons. State and federal regulators, in reviewing our loan and lease portfolio as part of a regulatory examination, may request that we increase the ACL. Changes in economic conditions or individual business or personal circumstances affecting borrowers, new information regarding existing loans and leases, identification of additional problem loans and leases and other factors, both within and outside of our control, may require an increase in the ACL. If our assessment of and expectations concerning the above-mentioned factors differ from actual developments, we may be required to increase our ACL, which could have an adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations and our regulatory capital.

Our business strategy includes making loans secured by commercial real estate. These types of loans generally have higher risk-adjusted returns and shorter maturities than other loans. Loans secured by commercial real estate properties are generally for larger amounts and may involve a greater degree of risk than other loans. Payments on loans secured by these properties are often dependent on the income produced by the underlying properties which, in turn, depends on the successful operation and management of the properties and the businesses that operate within them. Accordingly, repayment of these loans is subject to conditions in the real estate market or the local economy. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a potentially long-term negative impact on certain commercial real estate assets due to the risk that tenants may reduce the office space they lease as some portion of the workforce continues to work remotely on a hybrid or full-time basis. In challenging economic conditions and as a result of changing demand for office space, these loans represent higher risk and could result in internal risk rating downgrades and an increase in our total net charge-offs, requiring us to increase our ACL, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition or results of operations. While we seek to minimize these risks in a variety of ways, there can be no assurance that these measures will protect against credit-related losses.

Our loan portfolio includes a large amount of commercial real estate loans. The federal banking agencies have promulgated guidance governing banks with concentrations in commercial real estate lending. The guidance provides that a bank has a concentration in commercial real estate lending if (i) total reported loans for construction, land development and other land represent 100% or more of total risk-based capital or (ii) total commercial real estate loans represent 300% or more of total risk-based capital and that bank's commercial real estate loan portfolio has increased 50% or more during the prior thirty-six months. Owner-occupied commercial real estate loans are excluded from this second category. If a bank is deemed to have a concentration in commercial real estate loans, it will be required to employ heightened risk management practices that address board and management oversight and strategic planning, portfolio management, development of underwriting standards, risk assessment and monitoring through market analysis and stress testing and maintenance of increased capital levels as needed to support the level of commercial real estate lending. At December 31, 2023, the Bank's construction, land development and other land balances were 44% of total risk-based capital, commercial real estate loans were 307% of total risk-based capital and the Bank's commercial real estate loan portfolio had increased by 69% during the prior thirty-six months. In addition, the Bank's office space portfolio was 71% of total risk-based capital at December 31, 2023. At this date, the Bank's office space portfolio included only limited exposure to properties in major metropolitan markets and amounted to approximately 2% of the total commercial real estate loan portfolio balance. The Bank believes it has taken the appropriate steps to implement appropriate risk management practices, which are subject to regulatory examination, including enhanced market analysis, stress testing and sensitivity analysis. If our regulators conclude that we have not implemented appropriate risk management practices, it could adversely affect our business, and could result in the requirement to maintain increased capital levels or restrict our ability to originate new loans secured by commercial real estate. We can provide no assurance that capital would be available, or available on terms favorable to us, at that time.

Commercial and industrial loans generally carry larger loan balances and involve a greater degree of risk of nonpayment or late payment than home equity loans or residential mortgage loans. Commercial and industrial loans include advances to local and regional businesses for general commercial purposes and include permanent and short-term working capital, machinery and equipment financing, and may be either in the form of lines of credit or term loans. Although commercial and industrial loans may be unsecured to our highest rated borrowers, the majority of these loans are secured by the borrower's accounts receivable, inventory and machinery and equipment. In a significant number of these loans, the collateral also includes the business real estate or the business owner's personal real estate or assets. Commercial and industrial loans are more susceptible to risk of loss during a downturn in the economy, as borrowers may have greater difficulty in meeting their debt service requirements and the value of the collateral may decline. We attempt to mitigate this risk through our underwriting standards, including evaluating the creditworthiness of the borrower, regular monitoring, and, to the extent available, credit ratings on the business. However, these procedures cannot entirely eliminate the risk of loss associated with commercial and industrial lending.

Our operations are subject to risks and uncertainties surrounding our exposure to changes in the interest rate environment. Earnings and liquidity depend to a great extent on our interest rates. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors beyond our control, including competition, general economic conditions, geopolitical tensions and monetary and fiscal policies of various governmental and regulatory authorities, including the FRB. Conditions such as inflation, deflation, recession, unemployment and other factors beyond our control may also affect interest rates. The nature and timing of any changes in interest rates or general economic conditions and their effect on us cannot be controlled and are difficult to predict. If the rate of interest we pay on our interest-bearing liabilities increases more than the rate of interest we receive on our interest-earning assets, our net interest income, and therefore our earnings, could contract and be materially adversely affected. Our earnings could also be materially adversely affected if the rates on interest-earning assets fall more quickly than those on our interest-bearing liabilities. Changes in interest rates could also create competitive pressures, which could impact our liquidity position. Changes in interest rates also can affect our ability to originate loans, our ability to obtain and retain deposits, and the value of interest-earning assets, and the ability to realize gains from the sale of such assets, which could all negatively impact shareholder's equity and regulatory capital. Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee ("FOMC") has raised the Fed Funds rate by 525 basis points. Additional increases in interest rates could also have a negative impact on our results of operations by reducing the ability of borrowers to repay their current loan obligations, which could not only result in increased loan defaults, foreclosures and charge-offs, but could also necessitate further increases to our ACL and reduce net income. In addition, based on our interest rate sensitivity analyses, an increase in the general level of interest rates may negatively affect the market value of the investment portfolio depending on the duration of certain securities included in the investment portfolio. In December of 2023, the FOMC signaled its intention to reduce interest rates in 2024, contingent upon inflation settling at its 2.0% target. A decrease in interest rates may trigger loan prepayments, which may serve to reduce net interest income if we are unable to lend these funds to other borrowers or invest the funds at the same or higher interest rates. Our subordinated notes, issued in December 2018, had a 6.0% fixed interest rate through December 30, 2023, after which the interest rate converted to a variable rate, 90-day average fallback SOFR rate, plus 3.16% through maturity in December 2028. At December 31, 2023, the interest rate on our subordinated debt was 8.78%. An increase in the interest rate on our subordinated debt could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations.

A possible future downgrade of the sovereign credit ratings of the U.S. government and a decline in the perceived creditworthiness of U.S. government-related obligations could impact our ability to obtain funding that is collateralized by affected instruments, as well as affect the pricing of that funding when it is available. A downgrade may also adversely affect the market value of such instruments. We cannot predict if, when or how any changes to the credit ratings or perceived creditworthiness of these organizations will affect economic conditions. Among other things, a downgrade in the U.S. government's credit rating could adversely impact the value of our securities portfolio and may trigger requirements that we post additional collateral for trades relative to these securities. A downgrade of the sovereign credit ratings of the U.S. government or the credit ratings of related institutions, agencies or instruments could significantly exacerbate the other risks to which we are subject and could have related adverse effects on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Actual events involving limited liquidity, defaults, non-performance or other adverse developments that affect financial institutions, transactional counterparties or other companies in the financial services industry or the financial services industry generally, or concerns or rumors about any events of these kinds or other similar risks, have in the past and may in the future lead to market-wide liquidity problems. For example, on May 1, 2023, First Republic Bank went into receivership and its deposits and substantially all of its assets were acquired by JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association. Similarly, on March 10, 2023, Silicon Valley Bank went into receivership, and on March 12, 2023, Signature Bank went into receivership. Inflation and rapid increases in interest rates led to a decline in the trading value of previously issued government securities with interest rates below current market interest rates. The FRB announced a program to provide loans, secured by certain government securities, to FDIC-insured depository institutions and certain U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, to mitigate the risk of potential losses on the sale of such instruments. Currently, new advances with terms up to one year under the program can only be made through March 11, 2024. There is no guarantee that the Treasury, the FDIC and/or the FRB, as applicable, would take such actions in the future in the event of the closure of other banks or financial institutions, that they would do so in a timely fashion, or that such actions, if taken, would have their intended effect.

A credit rating agency regularly evaluates the Parent Company and the Bank, and credit ratings are based on a number of factors, including our financial strength and ability to generate earnings, as well as factors not entirely within our control, including conditions affecting the financial services industry, the economy, and changes in rating methodologies. There can be no assurance that we will maintain our current credit ratings. A downgrade of the credit ratings of the Parent Company or the Bank could adversely affect our access to liquidity and capital, and could significantly increase our cost of funds, trigger additional collateral or funding requirements, and decrease the number of investors and counterparties willing to lend to us or purchase our securities. This could affect our growth, profitability, and financial condition, including liquidity.

Market conditions or other events could negatively affect our access to or the cost of funding, affecting our ongoing ability to accommodate liability maturities and deposit withdrawals, meet contractual obligations, or fund asset growth and new business initiatives at a reasonable cost, in a timely manner and without adverse consequences. Although we maintain a liquid asset portfolio and have implemented strategies to maintain sufficient and diverse sources of funding to accommodate planned, as well as unanticipated, changes in assets, liabilities, and off-balance sheet commitments under various economic conditions, a substantial, unexpected, or prolonged change in the level or cost of liquidity could have a material adverse effect on us. If the cost effectiveness or the availability of supply in these credit markets is reduced for a prolonged period of time, our funding needs may require us to access funding and manage liquidity by other means. These alternatives may include generating client deposits, securitizing or selling loans, extending the maturity of wholesale borrowings, borrowing under certain secured borrowing arrangements, using relationships developed with a variety of fixed income investors, and further managing loan growth and investment opportunities. These alternative means of funding may result in an increase to the overall cost of funds and may not be available under stressed conditions, which could cause us to liquidate a portion of our liquid asset portfolio to meet any funding needs. In the event additional liquidity is needed, we have access to liquidity from the FHLB, the FRB discount window and other sources. At December 31, 2023, we have combined borrowing capacity from the FHLB and FRB of approximately $1.0 billion. Accessing these sources of liquidity would impose additional borrowing costs on us.

Deposits are a stable source of funding for which costs are typically lower than other financing options. We compete with banks and other financial institutions for deposits, as well as institutions offering uninsured investment alternatives, including money market funds and Treasury Bill alternatives. Our competitors may offer higher interest rates than we do, which could decrease the deposits that we attract or require us to increase our rates to retain existing deposits or obtain new deposits. Bank failures could negatively impact depositor confidence in us or the banking industry and cause our deposits to decline. Funding costs may increase if we lose deposits and are forced to replace them with more expensive sources of funding, if clients shift their deposits into higher cost products or if we need to raise interest rates to avoid losing deposits. Higher funding costs reduce our net interest margin and net income. Increased deposit competition could materially adversely affect our ability to fund lending operations. As a result, we may need to seek other sources of funds that could increase our cost of funds.

We must maintain sufficient funds to respond to the needs of depositors and borrowers. To manage liquidity, we draw upon a number of funding sources in addition to core deposit growth and repayments and maturities of loans and investments. These sources may include Federal Home Loan Bank advances, proceeds from the sale of investments and loans, and liquidity resources at the holding company. Our ability to manage liquidity will be severely constrained if we are unable to maintain access to funding or if adequate financing is not available to accommodate future growth at acceptable costs. In addition, if we are required to rely more heavily on more expensive funding sources to support future growth, our revenues may not increase proportionately to cover our costs. In this case, operating margins and profitability would be adversely affected. Turbulence in the capital and credit markets may adversely affect our liquidity and financial condition and the willingness of certain counterparties and clients to do business with us. Our ability to borrow from other financial institutions or to access the debt or equity capital markets on favorable terms or at all could be adversely affected by disruptions in the capital markets or other events, including actions by rating agencies and deteriorating investor expectations.

The Parent Company is a holding company, separate from the Bank, and must provide for its own liquidity. The Parent Company depends on dividends, distributions and other payments from the Bank to fund dividend payments and stock repurchases, if permitted, and to fund all payments on obligations. The FRB requires a BHC to act as a source of financial and managerial strength for its subsidiary banks. The FRB could require us to commit resources to the Bank when doing so is not otherwise in the interests of our shareholders or creditors. The Bank is subject to laws that restrict dividend payments or authorize regulatory bodies to prohibit or reduce the flow of funds from it to us. If the Bank is unable to pay dividends to us, we may not be able to service our debt, pay dividends on our common stock or engage in stock repurchases. A reduction or elimination of dividends could adversely affect the market price of our common stock and would adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects. In addition, our right to participate in a distribution of assets upon the Bank's liquidation or reorganization is subject to the prior claims of the Bank's creditors, including its depositors. Restrictions on the Bank's ability to dividend funds to the Company are included in Note 17, Shareholders' Equity and Regulatory Capital, to the Consolidated Financial Statements under Part II, Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data."

Our ability to engage in routine funding and other transactions could be adversely affected by the actions and commercial soundness of other financial institutions. Financial services institutions are interrelated as a result of trading, clearing, counterparty or other relationships. As a result, defaults by, or even rumors or questions about, one or more financial services institutions, or the financial services industry generally, have historically led to market-wide liquidity problems, losses of depositor, creditor and counterparty confidence and could lead to losses or defaults by us or by other institutions. While we did not have any direct exposure to the bank failures that occurred in 2023, the failures of those institutions led to extreme volatility in the prices of securities issued by financial institutions. Bank failures could negatively impact client and investor confidence in us, which could negatively impact our earnings, stock price or liquidity. We could experience increases in deposits and assets as a result of other banks' difficulties or failure, which would increase the capital we are required to maintain to support such growth.

We intend to pursue a growth plan consistent with our business strategy, including growth by acquisition, as well as leveraging our existing branch network. On December 12, 2023, we signed a definitive agreement for a "merger of equals transaction" with CVLY. We may wish to seek to acquire other companies in the future. Our business may be negatively impacted by certain risks inherent with the acquisition of CVLY or other future acquisitions. Some of these risks include the following: - we may incur substantial expenses in pursuing acquisitions;- management may divert its attention from other aspects of our business;- we may assume potential and unknown liabilities of the acquired company;- the acquired business may not perform in accordance with management's expectations, including potentially losing key clients of the acquired business;- difficulties may arise in connection with the integration of the operations of the acquired business with our businesses; and - we may lose key employees of the combined business. Our ability to manage growth successfully will depend on our ability to attract qualified personnel and maintain cost controls and asset quality while attracting additional loans and deposits on favorable terms, as well as on factors beyond our control, such as economic conditions and competition. If we grow too quickly and are not able to attract qualified personnel, control costs and maintain asset quality, this continued rapid growth could materially adversely affect our financial performance.

We have incurred and expect to incur a number of non-recurring costs associated with the Merger. These costs include legal, financial advisory, accounting, consulting and other advisory fees, severance/employee benefit-related costs, public company filing fees and other regulatory fees, financial printing and other printing costs and other related costs. Some of these costs are payable regardless of whether the Merger is completed. In addition, we expect to incur integration costs following the completion of the Merger, including facilities and systems consolidation costs and employment-related costs. We may also incur additional costs to maintain employee morale and to retain key employees. There are a large number of processes, policies, procedures, operations, technologies and systems that will need to be integrated, including purchasing, accounting and finance, payroll, compliance, treasury management, branch operations, vendor management, risk management, lines of business, pricing and benefits. While we have assumed that certain level of costs will be incurred, there are many factors beyond our control that could affect the total amount or the timing of the integration costs. Moreover, many of the costs that will be incurred are, by their nature, difficult to estimate accurately. These integration costs may result in the combined company taking charges against earnings following the completion of the Merger, and the amount and timing of such charges are uncertain at present. There can be no assurances that the expected benefits and efficiencies related to the Merger will be realized to offset these transaction and integration costs over time.

If the Merger is not completed for any reason, there may be various adverse consequences and we may experience negative reactions from the financial markets and from their respective customers and employees. For example, our business may have been impacted adversely by the failure to pursue other beneficial opportunities due to the focus of management on the Merger, without realizing any of the anticipated benefits of completing the Merger. Additionally, if the merger agreement is terminated, the market price of our common stock could decline to the extent that current market prices reflect a market assumption that the Merger will be beneficial and will be completed. We also could be subject to litigation related to any failure to complete the Merger or to proceedings commenced against us to perform their respective obligations under the merger agreement. If the merger agreement is terminated under certain circumstances, we may be required to pay a termination fee of $8.3 million to the other party.

Uncertainty about the effect of the Merger on employees and customers may have an adverse effect on our business. These uncertainties may impair our ability to attract, retain and motivate key personnel until the Merger is completed, and could cause customers and others who deal with us to seek to change existing business relationships. In addition, the merger agreement requires that we conduct our business in the ordinary course of business consistent with past practice and restricts us from taking certain actions prior to the effective time or termination of the merger agreement without CVLY's consent in writing. These restrictions may prevent us from pursuing attractive business opportunities that may arise prior to the completion of the Merger.

The proposed Merger is a transaction combining two financial institutions of relatively similar asset size. The success of the Merger will depend on, among other things, the ability to realize the anticipated cost savings. To realize the anticipated benefits and cost savings from the Merger, we and CVLY must successfully integrate and combine our businesses in a manner that permits those cost savings to be realized without adversely affecting current revenues and future growth. If we and CVLY are not able to successfully achieve these objectives, the anticipated benefits of the Merger may not be realized fully or at all or may take longer to realize than expected. In addition, the actual cost savings of the Merger could be less than anticipated, and integration may result in additional and unforeseen expenses. An inability to realize the full extent of the anticipated benefits of the Merger and the other transactions contemplated by the merger agreement, as well as any delays encountered in the integration process, could have an adverse effect upon the revenues, levels of expenses and operating results of the combined company following the completion of the Merger, which may adversely affect the value of the common stock of the combined company following the completion of the Merger.