Origin Materials (ORGN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $95.94M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.07M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.42
• Revenue Growth: -15.84%
• EPS Growth: -605.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 109
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Chemicals
• EPS (TTM): -0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 149,898,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,723,328
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,070,426
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.33
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 25.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.12
• 1Y Price Target: $0.50
• Price Target Upside: -21.88% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $0.50 ▼(-21.88% Downside)

Origin Materials faces significant financial challenges, with negative profitability and cash flow metrics being the most impactful factors. Technical analysis shows some positive momentum, but long-term trends remain weak. Valuation concerns persist due to negative earnings and lack of dividends. The earnings call provided mixed signals, with strategic initiatives offset by operational delays and revised guidance.

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnerships

The partnership with Berlin Packaging expands Origin's market reach and opens doors for future product formats, enhancing long-term growth potential and market penetration.

Product Launch

The launch of PET bottle caps marks a significant milestone, potentially increasing revenue streams and solidifying Origin's position in the sustainable packaging market.

European Manufacturing Expansion

Expanding manufacturing in Europe without tariff impacts strengthens Origin's supply chain and market presence, supporting long-term growth in a key region.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

Declining revenue growth indicates challenges in market demand or operational execution, potentially impacting long-term financial stability and growth prospects.

Manufacturing Delays

Delays in manufacturing can disrupt supply chains and delay revenue realization, affecting customer satisfaction and long-term operational efficiency.

Revised Financial Guidance

Lowered revenue guidance reflects potential challenges in achieving growth targets, raising concerns about the company's ability to meet future financial goals.

Origin Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Micromidas, Inc., doing business as Origin Materials, produces and commercializes plant-based PET plastic. It develops a platform for turning the carbon found in biomass into useful materials, while capturing carbon in the process. The company serves tire filler, carbon black, agriculture, and activated carbon markets. Micromidas, Inc. has a strategic alliance with Palantir Technologies Inc. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is based in West Sacramento, California with a facility in Sarnia, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Origin Materials generates revenue through the production and sale of its sustainable materials, primarily derived from its proprietary technology that converts biomass into bio-based chemicals and plastics. Key revenue streams include direct sales of these materials to manufacturers in different sectors that are looking to reduce their carbon footprint and transition to more sustainable alternatives. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships with other industry players to co-develop products or technologies, enhancing its market reach and driving sales. Long-term contracts and agreements with customers can also provide stable revenue streams, while the increasing global demand for eco-friendly products positions Origin Materials for growth in a rapidly evolving market.

Origin Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Origin Materials faces significant profitability and cash flow challenges as reflected in the negative profit margins and operating cash flow. Despite a strong equity position, the company needs to address its operational inefficiencies to improve financial health. The balance sheet remains stable with manageable debt levels, but the overall financial outlook is constrained by ongoing losses.

Income Statement

Origin Materials shows a volatile revenue trajectory with recent declines. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is low at 9.05%, and the net profit margin is negative, reflecting significant losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating challenges in covering operational costs.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low, suggesting conservative leverage usage, which is a positive sign. However, the return on equity is negative due to ongoing losses, and the equity ratio is strong at 90.13%, indicating financial stability and reliance on equity financing.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow is negative, but there is a slight improvement in free cash flow growth rate from the previous period. Operating cash flow remains negative and is significantly lower than net income, reflecting cash flow challenges. Free cash flow to net income ratio is also unfavorable.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	28.67M	31.28M	28.80M	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	368.00K	418.00K	5.21M	-1.29M	-824.00K	-479.00K
EBITDA	-77.38M	-71.94M	26.20M	79.86M	45.75M	-10.70M
Net Income	-89.47M	-83.70M	23.80M	78.57M	42.09M	-30.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	348.38M	378.03M	461.83M	493.70M	510.42M	47.43M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	69.40M	102.92M	158.26M	323.32M	444.10M	1.31M
Total Debt	7.49M	9.68M	9.76M	8.71M	6.96M	9.33M
Total Liabilities	37.25M	39.66M	39.33M	116.80M	206.91M	47.31M
Stockholders Equity	311.13M	338.37M	422.51M	376.90M	303.51M	123.00K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-56.95M	-59.78M	-170.46M	-110.03M	-34.51M	-7.51M
Operating Cash Flow	-34.87M	-50.83M	-60.35M	-26.09M	-22.04M	-5.46M
Investing Cash Flow	25.69M	28.56M	26.23M	88.85M	-411.64M	-2.05M
Financing Cash Flow	-7.74M	3.56M	146.00K	1.25M	478.95M	5.83M

Origin Materials Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.64
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORGN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.56, above the 50-day MA of 0.58, and below the 200-day MA of 0.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ORGN.

Origin Materials Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ASIX	67 Neutral	$526.95M	6.91	9.85%	3.26%	1.31%	796.76%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
LXU	59 Neutral	$596.35M	―	-6.51%	―	2.60%	-1506.69%
FF	54 Neutral	$177.84M	11.43	-13.48%	5.91%	-51.14%	-165.98%
TROX	50 Neutral	$556.42M	―	-14.11%	12.11%	0.20%	-292.54%
RYAM	50 Neutral	$481.07M	―	-81.36%	―	-4.90%	-458.80%
ORGN	49 Neutral	$95.94M	―	-25.50%	―	-15.84%	-605.38%

Origin Materials Corporate Events

Origin Materials Holds Virtual Annual Stockholders Meeting

On May 6, 2025, Origin Materials held its annual stockholders meeting virtually, with 59.89% of shares represented. Key decisions included the election of two Class I directors, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent accounting firm, and an advisory vote on executive compensation. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.