Onity Group (ONIT) Risk Analysis

Based on SEC filings, we understand several shareholders each own or control over five percent of our common stock. These large shareholders individually and collectively have the ability to vote a meaningful percentage of our outstanding common stock on all matters put to a vote of our shareholders. As a result, these shareholders could influence matters requiring shareholder approval, including the amendment of our articles of incorporation, the approval of mergers or similar transactions and the election of directors. If situations arise in which management and certain large shareholders have divergent views, we may be unable to take actions management believes to be in the best interests of Onity. Further, certain of our large shareholders also hold significant percentages of stock in companies with which we do business. It is possible these interlocking ownership positions could cause these shareholders to take actions based on factors other than solely what is in the best interests of Onity.

Our articles of incorporation permit our Board of Directors, without our stockholders' approval, to: - authorize the issuance of additional common stock or preferred stock in connection with future equity offerings or acquisitions of securities or other assets of companies; and - classify or reclassify any unissued common stock or preferred stock and to set the preferences, rights and other terms of the classified or reclassified shares, including the issuance of shares of preferred stock that have preference rights over the common stock and existing preferred stock with respect to dividends, liquidation, voting and other matters or shares of common stock that have preference rights over common stock with respect to voting. While any such issuance would be subject to compliance with the terms of our debt and other agreements, our issuance of additional securities could be substantially dilutive to our existing stockholders and may depress the price of our common stock.

Our business requires substantial amounts of capital and our financing strategy includes the use of leverage. Accordingly, our ability to finance our operations and repay maturing obligations rests in large part on our ability to continue to borrow money at reasonable rates. If we are unable to maintain adequate financing, or other sources of capital are not available, we could be forced to suspend, curtail or reduce our revenue generating objectives, which could harm our results of operations, liquidity, financial condition and business prospects. Our ability to borrow money is affected by a variety of factors including: - limitations imposed on us by existing debt agreements that contain restrictive covenants that may limit our ability to raise additional debt;- credit market conditions;- the potential for ongoing disruption in the financial markets and in commercial activity generally related to changes in monetary and fiscal policy, international events including conflicts or wars and other sources of instability;- the strength of the lenders from whom we borrow;- lenders' perceptions of us or our sector;- changes in interest rates or other drivers that affect the value of pledged collateral;- corporate credit and servicer ratings from rating agencies;- limitations on borrowing under our MSR and advance facilities and mortgage loan warehouse facilities due to structural features in these facilities and the amount of eligible collateral that is pledged; and - revenue opportunities including products not currently supported in the financing market. Our advance facilities are revolving facilities that generally have a revolving period up to 24 months. In a typical monthly cycle, we repay a portion of the borrowings under these facilities from collections. During the remittance cycle, which starts in the middle of each month, we depend on our lenders to provide us with a significant portion of the cash necessary to make the advances that we are required to make as servicer. If one or more of these lenders were to restrict our ability to access these revolving facilities or were to fail, we may not have sufficient funds to meet our obligations. We typically require significantly more liquidity to meet our advance funding obligations than our available cash on hand. In addition, we use mortgage loan warehouse facilities to fund newly originated loans, HECM tails, buyouts and a number of other assets on a short-term basis until they are sold to secondary market investors, including GSEs or other third-party investors. Currently, our master repurchase and participation agreements for financing new loan originations generally have maximum terms of 364 days, and they are typically renewed, replaced or extended annually. We issued asset-backed securitization notes in 2023 and 2024 to diversify our financing of reverse mortgage buyouts and REO properties with a three-year anniversary mandatory call dates. We have diversified sources of funding for our GSE, Ginnie Mae and PLS MSR portfolios. GSE MSR financing is provided through two bank financing facilities whose total capacity was $500.0 million and $400.0 million, respectively, at December 31, 2024. The $500.0 million GSE MSR facility terminates in September 2025 and the $400.0 million GSE MSR facility converts into a term loan in February 2025 with a final maturity date in December 2026. The Ginnie Mae facility, provided through private investor arrangement, carried total capacity of $300.0 million at December 31, 2024. The PLS MSR financing was issued to capital markets investors as an amortizing note structure. The Ginnie Mae and PLS financing arrangements terminate in February 2025 and are expected to be extended for another 364-day period. Our MSR financing facilities provide funding based on an advance rate against MSR value that is subject to periodic mark-to-market valuation adjustments (MSR valuation is expected to decline if market interest rates decline). In the normal course, and without any additions to our MSR portfolio from production or acquisition activities, MSR value is expected to decline over time due to run off of the loan balances in our servicing portfolio. As a result, we anticipate having to repay a portion of our MSR debt over a given time period. The requirements to repay MSR debt including those due to unfavorable fair value adjustment attributable to interest rates or other factors may require us to allocate a substantial amount of our available liquidity or future cash flows to meet these requirements. To the extent we are unable to generate sufficient cash flows from operations to meet these requirements, we may be more constrained to invest in our business and fund other obligations, and our business, financing activities, liquidity, financial condition and results of operations will be adversely affected. On November 6, 2024, we successfully completed our corporate debt restructuring. PHH Corporation issued $500.0 million  aggregate principal amount of 9.875% Senior Notes due November 1, 2029 (Senior Notes Due 2029) in a syndicated private placement. Interest on the Senior Notes Due 2029 is payable semi-annually and principal is due at maturity. The Senior Notes Due 2029 are guaranteed by Onity and certain wholly-owned subsidiaries including PMC (collectively "restricted subsidiaries"). The Senior Notes are secured by the equity interests of the restricted subsidiaries and any available cash in excess of regulatory requirements, as defined. The proceeds from the issuance of the Senior Notes Due 2029 described above, together with proceeds from the sale of MAV Canopy and available cash, were used to redeem in November 2024 all of the outstanding $289.1 million 7.875% PMC Senior Secured Notes due in 2026 and $285.0 million 12% Onity Senior Secured Notes due in 2027. While we currently plan to renew, replace or extend all of the above debt agreements consistent with our historical practice, there can be no assurance that we will be able to do so on appropriate terms or at all and, if we fail to do so, we may not have adequate sources of funding for our business. Our debt agreements contain various qualitative and quantitative covenants, including financial covenants, covenants to operate in material compliance with applicable laws and regulations, monitoring and reporting obligations and restrictions on our ability to engage in various activities, including but not limited to incurring or guarantying additional debt, paying dividends or making distributions on or purchasing equity interests of Onity and its subsidiaries, repurchasing or redeeming capital stock or junior capital, repurchasing or redeeming subordinated debt prior to maturity, issuing certain types of preferred stock, selling or transferring assets or making loans or investments or other restricted payments, entering into mergers or consolidations or sales of all or substantially all of the assets of Onity and its subsidiaries, creating liens on assets to secure debt, and entering into transactions with affiliates. As a result of the covenants to which we are subject, we may be limited in the manner in which we conduct our business and may be limited in our ability to engage in favorable business activities or raise additional capital to finance future operations or satisfy future liquidity needs. In addition, breaches or events that may result in a default under our debt agreements include, among other things, noncompliance with our covenants, nonpayment of principal or interest, material misrepresentations, the occurrence of a material adverse effect or material adverse change, insolvency, bankruptcy, certain material judgments and changes of control. Covenants and defaults of this type are commonly found in debt agreements such as ours. Certain of these covenants and defaults are open to subjective interpretation and, if our interpretation were contested by a lender, a court may ultimately be required to determine compliance or lack thereof. In addition, our debt agreements generally include cross default provisions such that a default under one agreement could trigger defaults under other agreements. If we fail to comply with our debt agreements and are unable to avoid, remedy or secure a waiver of any resulting default, we may be subject to adverse action by our lenders, including termination of further funding,acceleration of outstanding obligations, enforcement of liens against the assets securing or otherwise supporting our obligations and other legal remedies. In addition to these covenants, certain agreements also include trigger events which may lead to adverse actions such as acceleration of outstanding obligations, step down in advance rates and termination of further funding. An actual or alleged default under any of our debt agreements, negative ratings action by a rating agency (including as a result of our increased leverage or erosion of net worth), the perception of financial weakness, an adverse action by a regulatory authority or GSE, a lengthening of foreclosure timelines or a general deterioration in the economy that constricts the availability of credit may increase our cost of funds and make it difficult for us to renew existing credit facilities or obtain new lines of credit. Any or all the above could have an adverse effect on our business, financing activities, financial condition and results of operations.

We currently fund a substantial portion of our servicing advance obligations through our servicing advance facilities. Under normal market conditions, mortgage servicers typically have been able to renew or refinance these facilities. However, market conditions or lenders' perceptions of us at the time of any renewal or refinancing may mean that we are unable to renew or refinance our advance financing facilities or obtain additional facilities on favorable terms or at all.

As noted in the prior risk factor, if we do not comply with our seller/servicer obligations, the GSEs or Ginnie Mae may utilize a variety of remedies against us. Such remedies include curtailment of our ability to sell newly originated loans or even termination of our ability to sell, service or securitize such loans altogether. Any such curtailment or termination would likely have a material adverse impact on our business, liquidity, financial condition and results of operations.

We will continue to seek to access the capital markets from time to time and, subject to compliance with our other contractual agreements, may make additional offerings of term loans, debt or equity securities, including senior or subordinated notes, preferred stock or common stock. We are not precluded by the terms of our articles of incorporation from issuing additional indebtedness. Accordingly, we could become more highly leveraged, resulting in an increase in debt service obligations and an increased risk of default on our obligations. If we were to liquidate, holders of our debt and lenders with respect to other borrowings would receive a distribution of our available assets before the holders of our common stock. Additional equity offerings by us may dilute our existing stockholders' interest in us or reduce the market price of our existing securities. Because our decision to issue securities in any future offering will depend on market conditions and other factors beyond our control, we cannot predict or estimate the amount, timing or nature of our future offerings. Further, conditions could require that we accept less favorable terms for the issuance of our securities in the future. Thus, our existing stockholders will bear the risk of our future offerings reducing the market price of our securities and diluting their ownership interest in us.

We have exposure to representation, warranty and indemnification obligations relating to our Originations business, including lending, loan sales and securitization activities, and in certain instances, we have assumed these obligations on loans we service. Our contracts with purchasers of originated loans generally contain provisions that require indemnification or repurchase of the related loans under certain circumstances. While the language in the purchase contracts varies, such contracts generally contain provisions that require us to indemnify purchasers of loans or repurchase such loans if: - representations and warranties concerning loan quality, contents of the loan file or loan underwriting circumstances are inaccurate;- adequate mortgage insurance is not secured within a certain period after closing;- a mortgage insurance provider denies coverage; or - there is a failure to comply, at the individual loan level or otherwise, with regulatory requirements. We believe that many purchasers of residential mortgage loans are particularly aware of the conditions under which originators must indemnify or repurchase loans and under which such purchasers would benefit from enforcing any indemnification rights and repurchase remedies they may have. If home values decrease, our realized loan losses from loan repurchases and indemnifications may increase as well. As a result, our liability for repurchases may increase beyond our current expectations. Depending on the magnitude of any such increase, our business, financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected.

We originate, securitize and service FHA-insured HECM mortgages. The reverse mortgage business is subject to substantial risks, including market, credit, interest rate, liquidity, operational, reputational and legal risks. Generally, a HECM reverse mortgage is a government-insured loan available to seniors aged 62 or older that allows homeowners to borrow money against the value of their home. No repayment of the mortgage is required until a default event under the terms of the mortgage occurs such as the borrower fails to pay real estate taxes or maintain proper insurance, the borrower dies, the borrower moves out of the home, or the home is sold. Foreclosures involving HECM reverse mortgages generally occur more frequently than forward mortgages. HUD HECM reverse mortgage program requires foreclosure upon death of the borrower. Borrower's heirs have very limited loss mitigation options under the HECM program, either payoff the debt at a discount (95% of UPB) or go through probate, a costly, time-consuming process, in order to sell the property or complete a deed in lieu of foreclosure. In addition, uncured loan defaults on HECM reverse mortgages can lead to foreclosures if borrowers fail to occupy the home as their primary residence, maintain their property or fail to pay taxes or home insurance premiums. A general increase in foreclosure rates may adversely impact how HECM reverse mortgages are perceived by potential customers and thus reduce demand for HECM reverse mortgages. A decline in the demand for HECM reverse mortgages may reduce the number of HECM reverse mortgages we originate and adversely affect our ability to sell HECM reverse mortgages in the secondary market. Additionally, we could become subject to negative headline risk in the event that loan defaults on HECM reverse mortgages lead to foreclosures or evictions of the elderly. The HUD HECM reverse mortgage program has in the past responded to scrutiny around similar issues by implementing rule changes, and may do so in the future. It is not possible to predict whether any such rule changes would negatively impact us. All of the above factors could have a material adverse effect on our business, reputation, liquidity, financial condition and results of operations.

As an HMBS issuer, we assume the obligation to purchase loans out of the Ginnie Mae securitization pools once the outstanding principal balance of the related HECM is equal to or greater than 98% of the maximum claim amount (MCA repurchases). Active repurchased loans are assigned to HUD and payment is typically received within 60 days of repurchase. HUD reimburses us for the outstanding principal balance on the loan up to the maximum claim amount. We bear the risk of exposure if the amount of the outstanding principal balance on a loan exceeds the maximum claim amount. Inactive repurchased loans (the borrower is deceased, no longer occupies the property or is delinquent on tax and insurance payments) are generally liquidated through foreclosure and subsequent sale of REO, with a claim filed with HUD for recoverable remaining principal and advance balances. The recovery timeline for inactive repurchased loans depends on various factors, including foreclosure status at the time of repurchase, state-level foreclosure timelines, and the post-foreclosure REO liquidation timeline. The timing and amount of our obligations with respect to MCA repurchases are uncertain as repurchase is dependent largely on circumstances outside of our control. MCA repurchases are expected to continue to increase due to the seasoning of our portfolio, the acquisition of more seasoned portfolios, and the increased flow of HECMs and REO that are reaching 98% of their maximum claim amount. If we do not have sufficient liquidity or borrowing capacity to comply with our Ginnie Mae repurchase obligations, Ginnie Mae could take adverse action against us, including terminating us as an approved HMBS issuer. In addition, if we are required to purchase a significant number of loans with respect to which the outstanding principal balances exceed HUD's maximum claim amount, we could be required to absorb significant losses on such loans following assignment to HUD. In the case of inactive loans, active loans whereby we strategically opted to not assign the loans to HUD, and active loans with collateral defects preventing assignment, we could be required to absorb significant losses on such loans following liquidation and subsequent claim for HUD reimbursement. Further, during the periods in which HUD reimbursement is pending, our available borrowing or liquidity will be reduced by the repurchase amounts and we will have reduced resources with which to further other business objectives. For all of the foregoing reasons, our liquidity, business, financial condition, and results of operations could be materially and adversely impacted by our HMBS repurchase obligations.

During any period in which a borrower is not making payments, we are required under most of our servicing contracts to advance our own funds to meet contractual principal and interest remittance requirements for investors, pay property taxes and insurance premiums and process modifications and foreclosures. We also advance funds to maintain, repair and market real estate properties on behalf of investors. Most of our advances have the highest standing and are "top of the waterfall" so that we are entitled to repayment from respective loan or REO liquidations proceeds before most other claims on these proceeds, and in the majority of cases, advances in excess of respective loan or REO liquidation proceeds may be recovered from pool level proceeds. Consequently, the primary impacts of an increase in advances are generally increased interest expense as we finance a large portion of servicing advance obligations and a decline in the fair value of MSRs as the projected funding cost of existing and future expected servicing advances is a component of the fair value of MSRs. Our liquidity is also negatively impacted because we must fund the portion of our advance obligations that is not financed. Our liquidity would be more severely impacted if we were unable to continue to finance a large portion of servicing advance obligations. Higher delinquencies also decrease the fair value of MSRs and increase our cost to service loans, as loans in default require more intensive effort to bring them current or manage the foreclosure process. An increase in delinquencies may delay the timing of revenue recognition because we recognize servicing fees as earned, which is generally upon collection of payments from borrowers or proceeds from REO liquidations. An increase in delinquencies also generally leads to lower balances in custodial and escrow accounts (float balances) and lower net earnings on custodial and escrow accounts (float earnings). Additionally, an increase in delinquencies in our servicing portfolio will result in lower revenue because we collect servicing fees only on performing loans. Foreclosures are involuntary prepayments resulting in a reduction in UPB. This may also result in declines in the value of our MSRs. Adverse economic conditions could also negatively impact our lending businesses. For example, declining home prices and increasing loan-to-value ratios may preclude many borrowers from refinancing their existing loans or obtaining new loans. Any of the foregoing could adversely affect our business, liquidity, financial condition and results of operations.

Our ability to provide competitive compensation packages and employee benefits programs is impacted by increases in the cost of living and wage inflation. This pressure, combined with tightening and competitive labor markets could increase the cost and difficulty of recruiting and retaining skilled employees. In addition, inflation may increase the rates charged by our vendors and our operating expenses generally. Any of these risks could negatively impact our operations and financial results.

On occasion, we engage with agencies of the federal government on various matters, including the Department of Justice, the Office of Inspector General of HUD, Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (SIGTARP) and the VA Office of the Inspector General. In addition to the expense of responding to subpoenas and other requests for information from such agencies, in the event that any of these engagements result in allegations of wrongdoing by us, we may incur fines or penalties or significant legal expenses defending ourselves against such allegations. In the past, we have entered into significant settlements with the NY DFS, the CA DFPI, and the 2013 Onity National Mortgage Settlement which involved payments of significant monetary amounts, monitoring by third-party firms for which we were financially responsible and other restrictions on our business. While we are not currently subject to active monitorships under these settlements, we remain obligated to comply with the commitments made to our regulators and if we violate those commitments one or more of these entities could take regulatory action against us. Any future settlements or other regulatory actions against us could have a material adverse impact on our business, reputation, operating results, liquidity and financial condition. To the extent that an examination or other regulatory engagement results in an alleged failure by us to comply with applicable laws, regulations or licensing requirements, or if allegations are made that we have failed to comply with applicable laws, regulations or licensing requirements or the commitments we have made in connection with our regulatory settlements (whether such allegations are made through administrative actions such as cease and desist orders, through legal proceedings or otherwise) or if other regulatory actions of a similar or different nature are taken in the future against us, this could lead to (i) administrative fines, penalties and litigation, (ii) loss of our licenses and approvals to engage in our servicing and lending businesses, (iii) governmental investigations and enforcement actions, (iv) civil and criminal liability, including class action lawsuits and actions to recover incentive and other payments made by governmental entities, (v) breaches of covenants and representations under our servicing, debt or other agreements, (vi) damage to our reputation, (vii) inability to raise capital or otherwise secure the necessary funding to operate the business, (viii) changes to our operations that may otherwise not occur in the normal course, and that could cause us to incur significant costs, and (ix) inability to execute on our business strategy. Any of these outcomes could increase our operating expenses and reduce our revenues, hamper our ability to grow or otherwise materially and adversely affect our business, reputation, financial condition, liquidity and results of operations.

Rithm is one of our largest servicing clients, accounting for 14% of the UPB and 24% of the loan count in our servicing and subservicing portfolio as of December 31, 2024. It is possible that Rithm could exercise its rights to terminate for convenience or opt not to renew some or all of our servicing agreements. See Note 8 - Other Financing Liabilities, at Fair Value for information regarding renewal of our agreements with Rithm. In addition, any failure by us to comply with a financial covenant could result in Rithm terminating Onity as subservicer under the subservicing agreements or in directing the transfer of servicing away from Onity under the Rights to MSRs agreements. Similarly, failure by Onity to meet operational requirements, including service levels, critical reporting and other obligations, could also result in termination or transfer for cause. In addition, if there is a change of control to which Rithm did not consent, Rithm could terminate for cause and direct the transfer of servicing away from Onity. A termination for cause and transfer of servicing could materially and adversely affect Onity's business, liquidity, financial condition and results of operations. Further, under our Rights to MSRs agreements, in certain circumstances, Rithm has the right to sell its Rights to MSRs to a third-party and require us to transfer title to the related MSRs, subject to an Onity option to acquire at a price based on the winning third-party bid rather than selling to the third party. If Rithm sells its Rights to MSRs to a third party, the transaction can only be completed if the third-party buyer can obtain the necessary third-party consents to transfer the MSRs. Rithm also has the obligation to use reasonable efforts to encourage such third-party buyer to enter into a subservicing agreement with Onity. Onity may lose future compensation for subservicing, however, if no subservicing agreement is ultimately entered into with the third-party buyer. Because of the large percentage of our servicing business that is represented by the agreements with Rithm, if Rithm exercised all or a significant portion of its rights to decline to continue doing business with us we anticipate that we would need to restructure many aspects of our servicing business as well as the related corporate support functions to address our smaller servicing portfolio and we may need to adjust our daily liquidity management due to the reduction of servicing float balances associated with the Rithm agreements.