Norwood Financial (NWFL) Risk Analysis

The Financial Accounting Standards Board has adopted a new accounting standard that will be effective for us for our first fiscal year after December 15, 2022. This standard, referred to as Current Expected Credit Loss, or CECL, will require financial institutions to determine periodic estimates of lifetime expected credit losses on loans, and recognize the expected credit losses as allowances for loan losses. This will change the current method of providing allowances for loan losses that are probable, which would likely require us to increase our allowance for loan losses, and to greatly increase the types of data we would need to collect and review to determine the appropriate level of the allowance for loan losses. Any increase in our allowance for loan losses or expenses incurred to determine the appropriate level of the allowance for loan losses may have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

At December 31, 2019, we had approximately $11.6 million in goodwill and identifiable intangible assets on our balance sheet. We are required to test our goodwill and identifiable intangible assets for impairment on a periodic basis. The impairment testing process considers a variety of factors, including the current market price of our common stock, the estimated net present value of our assets and liabilities, and information concerning the terminal valuation of similarly situated insured depository institutions. If an impairment determination is made in a future reporting period, our earnings and the book value of these intangible assets will be reduced by the amount of the impairment. If an impairment loss is recorded, it will have little or no impact on the tangible book value of our common stock or our regulatory capital levels, but such an impairment loss could significantly restrict the Bank's ability to make dividend payments to us.

Changes in the interest rate environment may reduce our profits. We realize income primarily from the differential or "spread" between the interest earned on loans, securities and other interest-earning assets, and the interest paid on deposits, borrowings and other interest-bearing liabilities. Net interest spreads are affected by the difference between the maturities and repricing characteristics of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities. Changes in market interest rates generally affect loan volume, loan yields, funding sources and funding costs. Our net interest spread depends on many factors that are partly or completely out of our control, including competition, federal economic, monetary and fiscal policies, and general economic conditions. In order to mitigate the risks from increases in interest rates, we emphasize the origination of loans with variable rates of interest so that loan yields increase with the general level of interest rates. Since many of the variable-rate loans in our portfolio specify minimum or floor rates of interest that borrowers must pay, however, the effective rates on these loans will not increase until the index rate exceeds the floor rate, which may initially reduce the sensitivity of these loans to increases in general interest rates. An increase in the general level of interest rates may adversely affect the ability of certain borrowers with variable-rate loans to pay the interest on and principal of their obligations. In addition, an increase in market interest rates on loans is generally associated with a lower volume of loan originations, which may reduce earnings. Following an increase in the general level of interest rates, our ability to maintain a positive net interest spread is dependent on our ability to increase our loan offering rates, replace loan maturities with new originations, minimize increases on our deposit rates, and maintain an acceptable level and mix of funding. Our ability to maintain a positive net interest spread will also be impacted by the slope of the yield curve. In the event of a flattening of the yield curve in which short-term rates and long-term rates converge, it will be even more difficult to maintain an acceptable interest rate spread between our asset yields and funding costs. We cannot provide assurances that we will be able to increase our loan offering rates and continue to originate loans due to the competitive landscape in which we operate. Additionally, we cannot provide assurances that we can minimize the increases in our deposit rates while maintaining an acceptable level of deposits. Finally, we cannot provide any assurances that we can maintain our current levels of non-interest-bearing deposits as customers may seek higher yielding products when rates increase. Following a decline in the general level of interest rates, our ability to maintain a positive net interest spread is dependent on our ability to reduce the interest paid on deposits, borrowings, and other interest-bearing liabilities. We cannot provide assurance that we would be able to lower the rates paid on deposit accounts to support our liquidity requirements as lower rates may result in deposit outflows. Accordingly, changes in levels of market interest rates could materially and adversely affect our net interest spread, asset quality, loan origination volume, liquidity, and overall profitability. We cannot assure you that we can minimize our interest rate risk.

Liquidity is essential to our business. An inability to raise funds through deposits, borrowings, the sale of loans and investments and other sources could have a substantial negative effect on our liquidity. Our access to funding sources in amounts adequate to finance our activities or on terms which are acceptable to us could be impaired by factors that affect us specifically or the financial services industry or economy in general. Factors that could detrimentally impact our access to liquidity sources include a decrease in the level of our business activity as a result of a downturn in the markets in which our loans are concentrated or adverse regulatory action against us. Our ability to borrow could also be impaired by factors that are not specific to us, such as a disruption in the financial markets or negative views and expectations about the prospects for the financial services industry in light of the recent turmoil faced by banking organizations and the continued deterioration in credit markets.

At December 31, 2019, approximately $102.9 million, or 28.5% of our time deposits consisted of deposits from local governments and governmental units which we acquired through competitive bidding. These time deposits generally consist of short-term certificates of deposit with balances in excess of $250,000 which local governments use in order to obtain a higher return on excess funds. Since these deposits are put out to bid again as each certificate matures, the interest rates on these deposits have the potential to rapidly adjust to market rates. In the event of an increase in market rates, the Bank may need be required to raise the interest rates on these deposits in order to retain them. In bidding for municipal deposits, the Bank considers its funding needs, its asset/liability management position, rates being paid for comparable funding and anticipated changes in interest rates. The Bank also considers the amount, if any, of collateral that it will be required to post for the deposit, the overall mix of obligations to the municipality and the extent of the Bank's total relationship with the municipality. In the event management does not deem it prudent to pay higher rates for these deposits, the Bank may be required to find a replacement for this form of funding.

We are required by federal and state regulatory authorities to maintain adequate levels of capital to support our operations. In addition, we may elect to raise additional capital to support our business or to finance acquisitions, if any, or we may otherwise elect or be required to raise additional capital. In that regard, a number of financial institutions have recently raised considerable amounts of capital in response to a deterioration in their results of operations and financial condition arising from the turmoil in the mortgage loan market, deteriorating economic conditions, declines in real estate values and other factors. Should we be required by regulatory authorities to raise additional capital, we may seek to do so through the issuance of, among other things, our common stock or preferred stock. Our ability to raise additional capital, if needed, will depend on conditions in the capital markets, economic conditions and a number of other factors, many of which are outside our control, and on our financial performance. Accordingly, we cannot assure you of our ability to raise additional capital if needed or on terms acceptable to us. If we cannot raise additional capital when needed, it may have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations and prospects.

Commercial loans are often larger and may involve greater risks than other types of lending. Because payments on such loans are often dependent on the successful operation of the property or business involved, repayment of such loans may be more sensitive than other types of loans due to adverse conditions in the real estate market or the economy. Unlike residential mortgage loans, which generally are made on the basis of the borrower's ability to make repayment from his or her employment and other income and which are secured by real property whose value tends to be more easily ascertainable, commercial loans typically are made on the basis of the borrower's ability to make repayment from the cash flow of the borrower's business. As a result, the availability of funds for the repayment of commercial loans may be substantially dependent on the success of the business itself and the general economic environment. If the cash flow from business operations is reduced, the borrower's ability to repay the loan may be impaired.

In addition to the financial strength and cash flow characteristics of the borrower in each case, we often secure our loans with real estate collateral. As of December 31, 2019, approximately 73.8% of our loans had real estate as a primary or secondary component of collateral. In addition, approximately 56.3% of our securities portfolio consisted of mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA). Real estate values and real estate markets are generally affected by, among other things, changes in national, regional or local economic conditions, fluctuations in interest rates and the availability of loans to potential purchasers, changes in tax laws and other governmental statutes, regulations and policies, and acts of nature. The real estate collateral in each case provides an alternate source of repayment in the event of default by the borrower. If real estate prices in our markets decline, the value of the real estate collateral securing our loans could be reduced. If we are required to liquidate the collateral securing a loan during a period of reduced real estate values to satisfy the debt, our earnings and capital could be adversely affected.