Northrim Bancorp (NRIM) Risk Analysis

- Natural disasters and adverse weather could negatively affect real estate property values and Bank operations. - The soundness of other financial institutions could adversely affect us. - The financial services business is intensely competitive and our success will depend on our ability to compete effectively. - We are a community bank and our ability to maintain our reputation is critical to the success of our business and the failure to do so could materially adversely affect our performance. - Social, political, and economic instability, unrest, and other circumstances beyond our control could adversely affect our business operations. - Climate change, severe weather, natural disasters, and other external events could significantly impact our business. - Increasing, complex and evolving regulatory, stakeholder, and other third party expectations on ESG matters could adversely affect our reputation, our access to capital and the market price of our securities. We attempt to mitigate the foregoing risks. However, if we are unable to effectively manage the impact of these and other risks, our financial condition, results of operations, our ability to make distributions to our shareholders, or the market price of our common stock could be materially impacted.

- Changes in market interest rates could adversely impact the Company. - The impact of interest rates on our mortgage banking business can have a significant impact on revenues. - Inflationary pressures and rising prices may affect our results of operations and financial condition. - Rising interest rates have decreased the value of our held-to-maturity securities portfolio, and we would realize losses if we were required to sell such securities to meet liquidity needs.

Changes and instability in economic conditions, geopolitical matters and financial markets, including a contraction of economic activity, could adversely impact our business, results of operations and financial condition. Our success depends, to a certain extent, upon global, domestic and local economic and political conditions, as well as governmental monetary policies. Conditions such as changes in interest rates, money supply, levels of employment and other factors beyond our control may have a negative impact on economic activity. Any contraction of economic activity, including an economic recession, may adversely affect our asset quality, deposit levels and loan demand and, therefore, our earnings. In particular, interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors that are beyond our control, including global, domestic and local economic conditions and the policies of various governmental and regulatory agencies and, specifically, the FRB. Throughout 2022 and 2023, the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate on eleven separate occasions, citing factors including the hardships caused by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continued global supply chain disruptions and imbalances, and increased inflationary pressure. The tightening of the FRB's monetary policies, including repeated and aggressive increases in target range for the federal funds rate as well as the conclusion of the FRB's tapering of asset purchases, together with ongoing economic and geopolitical instability, increases the risk of an economic recession. Although forecasts have varied, many economists are projecting that, while indicators of U.S. economic performance, such as income growth, may be strong and levels of inflation may continue to decrease, the U.S. economy may be flat or experience a modest decrease in gross domestic output in 2024 while inflation is expected to remain elevated relative to historic levels in the coming quarters. Any such downturn in economic output, especially domestically and in the Alaska and other markets in which we operate, may adversely affect our asset quality, deposit levels, loan demand and results of operations. As a result of the economic and geopolitical factors discussed above, financial institutions also face heightened credit risk, among other forms of risk. Of note, because we have a significant amount of real estate loans, decreases in real estate values could adversely affect the value of property used as collateral, which, in turn, can adversely affect the value of our loan and investment portfolios. Adverse economic developments, specifically including inflation-related impacts, may have a negative effect on the ability of our borrowers to make timely repayments of their loans or to finance future home purchases. According to the Federal Reserve's October 2023 Financial Stability Report, commercial real estate values remained elevated relative to fundamentals, even as prices continued to decline. While commercial real estate values continue to fluctuate, some markets are showing signs of stabilizing prices. However, the outlook for commercial real estate remains dependent on the broader economic environment and, specifically, how major subsectors respond to a rising interest rate environment and higher prices for commodities, goods and services. In any case, credit performance over the medium- and long-term is susceptible to economic and market forces and therefore forecasts remain uncertain; however, some degree of instability in the commercial real estate markets is expected in the coming quarters as loans are refinanced in markets with higher vacancy rates under current economic conditions. Instability and uncertainty in the commercial and residential real estate markets, as well as in the broader commercial and retail credit markets, could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. Current economic conditions in the State of Alaska pose challenges for us and could adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations. We are operating in an uncertain economic environment. The pandemic caused a global economic slowdown, and while we have seen economic recovery, continuing supply chain issues, fluctuations in oil prices, labor shortages and inflation risk are affecting the continued recovery. In the longer term, relatively low oil prices are expected to negatively impact the overall economy in Alaska on a larger scale as we estimate that one third of the Alaskan economy is related to oil. Financial institutions continue to be affected by changing conditions in the real estate and financial markets, along with an arduous regulatory climate. Continued economic uncertainty and a recessionary or stagnant economy could result in financial stress on the Bank's borrowers, which could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. Deteriorating conditions in the regional economies of Anchorage, Matanuska-Susitna Valley, Fairbanks, and the Southeast areas of Alaska served by the Company could drive losses beyond that which is provided for in our allowance for credit losses. We may also face the following risks in connection with events: ?Ineffective monetary policy could cause rapid changes in interest rates and asset values that would have a materially adverse impact on our profitability and overall financial condition.?Market developments and economic stagnation may affect consumer confidence levels and may cause adverse changes in payment patterns, resulting in increased delinquencies and default rates on loans and other credit facilities.?Regulatory scrutiny of the industry could increase, leading to harsh regulation of our industry that could lead to a higher cost of compliance, limit our ability to pursue business opportunities and increase our exposure to litigation.?Further erosion in the fiscal condition of the U.S. Treasury could lead to new taxes that would limit the ability of the Company to pursue growth and return profits to shareholders. If these conditions or similar ones develop, we could experience adverse effects on our financial condition and results of operations. Our concentration of operations in the Anchorage, Matanuska-Susitna Valley, Fairbanks and Southeast areas of Alaska makes us more sensitive to downturns in those areas. Substantially all of our business is derived from the Anchorage, Matanuska-Susitna Valley, Fairbanks, Southeast, and Kenai Peninsula areas of Alaska.  The majority of our lending has been with Alaska businesses and individuals. At December 31, 2023, approximately 72% of loans are secured by real estate and 4% are unsecured. Approximately 24% are for general commercial uses, including professional, retail, and small businesses, and are secured by non-real estate assets. Repayment is expected from the borrowers' cash flow or, secondarily, the collateral. Our exposure to credit loss, if any, is the outstanding amount of the loan if the collateral is proved to be of no value. These areas rely primarily upon the natural resources industries, particularly oil production, as well as tourism and government and U.S. military spending for their economic success. In particular, the oil industry plays a significant role in the Alaskan economy. Our business is and will remain sensitive to economic factors that relate to these industries and local and regional business conditions. As a result, local or regional economic downturns, or downturns that disproportionately affect one or more of the key industries in regions served by the Company, may have a more pronounced effect upon our business than they might on an institution that is less geographically concentrated. The extent of the future impact of these events on economic and business conditions cannot be predicted; however, prolonged or acute fluctuations could have a material and adverse impact upon our financial condition and results of operation. Our allowance for credit losses may be insufficient. We maintain allowances for credit losses on loans, securities and off-balance sheet credit exposures. The amount of each allowance account represents management's best estimate of current expected credit losses on these financial instruments considering available information, from internal and external sources, relevant to assessing exposure to credit loss over the contractual term of the instrument. Relevant available information includes historical credit loss experience, current conditions and reasonable and supportable forecasts. As a result, the determination of the appropriate level of the allowance for credit losses inherently involves a high degree of subjectivity and requires us to make significant estimates related to current and expected future credit risks and trends, all of which may undergo material changes. Continuing deterioration in economic conditions affecting borrowers and securities issuers; new information regarding existing loans, credit commitments and securities holdings; natural disasters and risks related to climate change; and identification of additional problem loans, ratings down-grades and other factors, both within and outside of our control, may require an increase in the allowances for credit losses on loans, securities and off-balance sheet credit exposures. In addition, bank regulatory agencies periodically review our allowance for credit losses and may require an increase in credit loss expense or the recognition of further loan charge-offs, based on judgments different than those of management. Furthermore, if any charge-offs related to loans, securities or off-balance sheet credit exposures in future periods exceed our allowances for credit losses on loans, securities or off-balance sheet credit exposures, we will need to recognize additional credit loss expense to increase the applicable allowance. Any increase in the allowance for credit losses on loans, securities and/or off-balance sheet credit exposures will result in a decrease in net income and, possibly, capital, and may have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. We are subject to concentration risks. Approximately 72% of the Bank's loan portfolio at December 31, 2023 consisted of loans secured by commercial and residential real estate mostly located in Alaska. Additionally, all of the Company's loans held for sale are secured by residential real estate. A slowdown in the residential sales cycle in our major markets and a constriction in the availability of mortgage financing, would negatively impact residential real estate sales, which would result in customers' inability to repay loans. This would result in an increase in our non-performing assets if more borrowers fail to perform according to loan terms and if we take possession of real estate properties. Additionally, if real estate values decline, the value of real estate collateral securing our loans could be significantly reduced. If any of these effects continue or become more pronounced, loan losses will increase more than we expect and our financial condition and results of operations would be adversely impacted. Our commercial real estate lending may expose us to increased lending risks. Approximately 49% of the Bank's loan portfolio at December 31, 2023 consisted of commercial real estate loans. Commercial construction and commercial real estate loans typically involve larger loan balances to single borrowers or groups of related borrowers. Consequently, an adverse development with respect to one commercial loan or one credit relationship exposes us to significantly greater risk of loss compared to an adverse development with respect to a consumer loan. Because payments on loans secured by commercial real estate often depend upon the successful operation and management of the properties and the businesses which operate from within them, repayment of such loans may be affected by factors outside the borrower's control, such as adverse conditions in the real estate market or the economy or changes in government regulation. In recent years, commercial real estate markets have been experiencing substantial growth, and increased competitive pressures have contributed significantly to historically low capitalization rates and rising property values. However, commercial real estate markets have been facing downward pressure since 2022 due in large part to increasing interest rates and declining property values. Accordingly, the federal banking agencies have expressed concerns about weaknesses in the current commercial real estate market and have applied increased regulatory scrutiny to institutions with commercial real estate loan portfolios that are fast growing or large relative to the institutions' total capital. To address supervisory expectations with respect to financial institutions' handling of commercial real estate borrowers who are experiencing financial difficulty, in June of 2023, the federal banking agencies issued an interagency policy statement addressing prudent commercial real estate loan accommodations and workouts. Our failure to adequately implement enhanced risk management policies, procedures and controls could adversely affect our ability to increase this portfolio going forward and could result in an increased rate of delinquencies in, and increased losses from, this portfolio. The credit quality of these loans may also deteriorate more than expected which may result in losses that exceed the estimates that are currently included in our allowance for loan losses, which could adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations. Residential mortgage lending is a market sector that experiences significant volatility and is influenced by many factors beyond our control. The Company earns revenue from the residential mortgage lending activities primarily in the form of gains on the sale of mortgage loans that we originate and sell to the secondary market.  Residential mortgage lending in general has experienced substantial volatility in recent periods primarily due to changes in interest rates and other market forces beyond our control. Interest rate changes, such as rate increases implemented by the FRB, have in the past, and may in the future, result in lower rate locks and closed loan volume, which may adversely impact the earnings and results of operations of RML. In addition, the recent increase and future increase, as is currently expected, in interest rates has in the past, and may in the future, materially and adversely affect our future loan origination volume and margins. Our information systems or those of our third-party vendors may be subject to an interruption or breach in security, including as a result of cyber-attacks. The Company's technologies, systems, networks and software, and those of other financial institutions have been, and are likely to continue to be, the target of cybersecurity threats and attacks, which may range from uncoordinated individual attempts to sophisticated and targeted measures directed at us. These cybersecurity threats and attacks may include, but are not limited to, breaches, unauthorized access, misuse, malicious code, computer viruses and denial of service attacks that could result in unauthorized access, misuse, loss or destruction of data (including confidential customer information), account takeovers, unavailability of service or other events. These types of threats may result from human error, fraud or malice on the part of external or internal parties, or from accidental technological failure. Further, to access our products and services our customers may use computers and mobile devices that are beyond our security control systems. The risk of a security breach or disruption, particularly through cyber-attack or cyber intrusion, including by computer hackers, has increased as the number, intensity and sophistication of attempted attacks and intrusions from around the world have increased. Our business requires the collection and retention of large volumes of customer data, including payment card numbers and other personally identifiable information in various information systems that we maintain and in those maintained by third parties with whom we contract to provide data services. We also maintain important internal company data such as personally identifiable information about our employees and information relating to our operations. The integrity and protection of that customer and company data is important to us. As customer, public, legislative and regulatory expectations and requirements regarding operational and information security have increased, our operations systems and infrastructure must continue to be safeguarded and monitored for potential failures, disruptions and breakdowns. Our customers and employees have been, and will continue to be, targeted by parties using fraudulent e-mails and other communications in attempts to misappropriate passwords, payment card numbers, bank account information or other personal information or to introduce viruses or other malware through "trojan horse" programs to our customers' computers. These communications may appear to be legitimate messages sent by the Bank or other businesses, but direct recipients to fake websites operated by the sender of the e-mail or request that the recipient send a password or other confidential information via e-mail or download a program. Despite our efforts to mitigate these threats through product improvements, use of encryption and authentication technology to secure online transmission of confidential consumer information, and customer and employee education, such attempted frauds against us or our merchants and our third-party service providers remain a serious issue. The pervasiveness of cyber security incidents in general and the risks of cyber-crime are complex and continue to evolve. In addition, following COVID-19, we have modified our business practices with a portion of our employees working remotely from their homes. The continuation of these work-from-home measures also introduces additional operational risk, including increased cybersecurity risk. In light of several recent high-profile data breaches at other companies involving customer personal and financial information, we believe the potential impact of a cyber security incident involving the Company, any exposure to consumer losses and the cost of technology investments to improve security could cause customer and/or Bank losses, damage to our brand, and increase our costs. Although we make significant efforts to maintain the security and integrity of our information systems and have implemented various measures to manage the risk of a security breach or disruption, there can be no assurance that our security efforts and measures will be effective or that attempted security breaches or disruptions would not be successful or damaging. Even the most well-protected information, networks, systems and facilities remain potentially vulnerable because attempted security breaches, particularly cyber-attacks and intrusions, or disruptions will occur in the future, and because the techniques used in such attempts are constantly evolving and generally are not recognized until launched against a target, and in some cases are designed not to be detected and, in fact, may not be detected. Accordingly, we may be unable to anticipate these techniques or to implement adequate security barriers or other preventative measures, and thus it is virtually impossible for us to entirely mitigate this risk. A security breach or other significant disruption could: disrupt the proper functioning of our networks and systems and therefore our operations and/or those of certain of our customers;  result in the unauthorized access to, and destruction, loss, theft, misappropriation or release of confidential, sensitive or otherwise valuable information of ours or our customers, including account numbers and other financial information; result in a violation of applicable privacy, data breach and other laws, subjecting the Bank to additional regulatory scrutiny and exposing the Bank to civil litigation, governmental fines and possible financial liability; require significant management attention and resources to remedy the damages that result; or harm our reputation or cause a decrease in the number of customers that choose to do business with us or reduce the level of business that our customers do with us. The occurrence of any such failures, disruptions or security breaches could have a negative impact on our financial condition and results of operations. A failure in or breach of the Company's operational systems, information systems, or infrastructure, or those of the Company's third party vendors and other service providers, may result in financial losses, or loss of customers. The Company relies heavily on communications and information systems to conduct our business. In addition, we rely on third parties to provide key components of our infrastructure, including the processing of sensitive consumer and business customer data, internet connections, and network access. These types of information and related systems are critical to the operation of our business and essential to our ability to perform day-to-day operations, and, in some cases, are critical to the operations of many of our customers. These third parties with which the Company does business or that facilitate our business activities, including exchanges, financial intermediaries or vendors that provide services or security solutions for our operations, could also be sources of operational and information security risk to us, including breakdowns or failures of their own systems or capacity constraints. Although the Company has implemented safeguards and business continuity plans, our business operations may be adversely affected by significant and widespread disruption to our physical infrastructure or operating systems that support our business and our customers, resulting in financial losses or loss of customers. Our business is highly reliant on third party vendors. We rely on third parties to provide services that are integral to our operations. These vendors provide services that support our operations, including the storage and processing of sensitive consumer and business customer data. The loss of these vendor relationships, or a failure of these vendors' systems, could disrupt the services we provide to our customers and cause us to incur significant expense in connection with replacing these services. We continually encounter technological change, and we may have fewer resources than many of our competitors to continue to invest in technological improvements. The financial services industry is undergoing rapid technological changes with frequent introductions of new technology-driven products and services. The effective use of technology increases efficiency and enables financial institutions to better serve customers and to reduce costs. Our future success will depend, in part, upon our ability to address the needs of our clients by using technology to provide products and services that will satisfy client demands for convenience, as well as to create additional efficiencies in our operations. Many national vendors provide turn-key services to community banks, such as Internet banking and remote deposit capture that allow smaller banks to compete with institutions that have substantially greater resources to invest in technological improvements. We may not be able, however, to effectively implement new technology-driven products and services or be successful in marketing these products and services to our customers. Our business, financial condition and results of operations are subject to risk from changes in customer behavior. Individual, economic, political, industry-specific conditions and other factors outside of our control, such as fuel prices, energy costs, real estate values, inflation, taxes or other factors that affect customer income levels, could alter anticipated customer behavior, including borrowing, repayment, investment and deposit practices. Such a change in these practices could materially adversely affect our ability to anticipate business needs and meet regulatory requirements. Further, difficult economic conditions may negatively affect consumer confidence levels. A decrease in consumer confidence levels would likely aggravate the adverse effects of these difficult market conditions on us, our customers and adversely affect our future loan origination volume and margins. Consumers may decide not to use banks to complete their financial transactions. Technology and other changes are allowing parties to complete financial transactions through alternative methods that historically have involved banks. For example, consumers can now maintain funds that would have historically been held as bank deposits in brokerage accounts, mutual funds or general-purpose reloadable prepaid cards. Consumers can also complete transactions, such as paying bills and/or transferring funds directly without the assistance of banks. Transactions utilizing digital assets, including cryptocurrencies, stablecoins and other similar assets, have increased substantially over the course of the last several years. Certain characteristics of digital asset transactions, such as the speed with which such transactions can be conducted, the ability to transact without the involvement of regulated intermediaries, the ability to engage in transactions across multiple jurisdictions, and the anonymous nature of the transactions, are appealing to certain consumers notwithstanding the various risks posed by such transactions as illustrated by the current and ongoing market volatility. Accordingly, digital asset service providers, which at present are not subject to the extensive regulation of banking organizations and other financial institutions, have become active competitors for our customers' banking business. The process of eliminating banks as intermediaries, known as "disintermediation," could result in the loss of fee income, as well as the loss of customer deposits and the related income generated from those deposits. Further, an initiative by the CFPB, as prompted by the current Presidential Administration, to promote "open and decentralized banking" through the proposal of a Personal Financial Data Rights rule designed to facilitate the transfer of customer information at the direction of the customer to other financial institutions could lead to greater competition for products and services among banks and nonbanks alike if a final rule is adopted. The timing of and prospects for any such action are uncertain at this time. The loss of these revenue streams and the lower cost of deposits as a source of funds could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. If we do not comply with the agreements governing servicing of loans, if these agreements change materially, or if others allege non-compliance, our business and results of operations may be harmed. We have contractual obligations under the servicing agreements pursuant to which we service mortgage loans. Many of our servicing agreements require adherence to general servicing standards, and certain contractual provisions delegate judgment over various servicing matters to us. If the terms of these servicing agreements change, we may sustain higher costs. Our servicing practices, and the judgments that we make in our servicing of loans, could also be questioned by parties to these agreements. We could also become subject to litigation claims seeking damages or other remedies arising from alleged breaches of our servicing agreements. Additionally, under our loan servicing program we retain servicing rights on mortgage loans originated by RML and sold to AHFC. If we breach any of the representations and warranties in our servicing agreements with AHFC, we may be required to repurchase any loan sold under this program and record a loss upon repurchase and/or bear any subsequent loss on the loan. We may not have any remedies available to us against third parties for such losses, or the remedies might not be as broad as the remedies available to the Alaska Housing Finance Corporation against us. Certain hedging strategies that we use to manage interest rate risk may be ineffective to offset any adverse changes in the fair value of these assets due to changes in interest rates and market liquidity. We use derivative instruments to economically hedge the interest rate risk in our residential mortgage loan commitments. Our hedging strategies are susceptible to prepayment risk, basis risk, market volatility and changes in the shape of the yield curve, among other factors. In addition, hedging strategies rely on assumptions and projections regarding assets and general market factors. If these assumptions and projections prove to be incorrect or our hedging strategies do not adequately mitigate the impact of changes in interest rates, we may incur losses that would adversely impact our financial condition and results of operations. We may be unable to attract and retain key employees and personnel. We will be dependent for the foreseeable future on the services of Joseph M. Schierhorn, our Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Operating Officer of the Company; Michael Huston, our President of Northrim Bank; Jed W. Ballard, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Amber Zins, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Northrim Bank. While we maintain keyman life insurance on the lives of Messrs. Schierhorn, Huston, Ballard and Ms. Zins in the amounts of $2.4 million, $2 million, $2 million and $2 million, respectively, we may not be able to timely replace these key employees with a person of comparable ability and experience should the need to do so arise, causing losses in excess of the insurance proceeds. The unexpected loss of key employees could have a material adverse effect on our business and possibly result in reduced revenues and earnings. Our internal controls may be ineffective. Management regularly reviews and updates our internal controls, disclosure controls and procedures, and corporate governance policies and procedures. Any system of controls, however well designed and operated, is based in part on certain assumptions and can provide only reasonable, not absolute, assurances that the objectives of the controls are met. Any failure or circumvention of our controls and procedures or failure to comply with regulations related to controls and procedures could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, and financial condition. Liquidity risk could impair our ability to fund operations and jeopardize our financial conditions. Liquidity is essential to our business. An inability to raise funds through deposits, borrowings and other sources could have a substantial negative effect on our liquidity and severely constrain our financial flexibility. Our primary source of funding is deposits gathered through our network of branch offices. Our access to funding sources in amounts adequate to finance our activities on terms that are acceptable to us could be impaired by factors that affect us specifically or the financial services industry or the economy in general. Factors that could negatively impact our access to liquidity sources include: - a decrease in the level of our business activity as a result of an economic downturn in the markets in which our loans are concentrated;- adverse regulatory actions against us; or - our inability to attract and retain deposits. Our ability to borrow could be impaired by factors that are not specific to us or our region, such as a disruption in the financial markets or negative views and expectations about the prospects for the financial services industry and unstable credit markets. Our access to deposits can be impacted by the liquidity needs of our customers as a substantial portion of our liabilities are demand while a substantial portion of our assets are loans that cannot be sold in the same timeframe. Historically, we have been able to meet its cash flow needs as necessary. If a sufficiently large number of depositors sought to withdraw their deposits for whatever reason, we may be unable to obtain the necessary funding at favorable term. A failure of a significant number of our borrowers, guarantors and related parties to perform in accordance with the terms of their loans would have an adverse impact on our results of operations. A source of risk arises from the possibility that losses will be sustained if a significant number of our borrowers, guarantors and related parties fail to perform in accordance with the terms of their loans. We have adopted underwriting and credit monitoring procedures and credit policies, including the establishment and review of our allowance for loan losses, which we believe are appropriate to minimize this risk by assessing the likelihood of nonperformance, tracking loan performance, and diversifying our credit portfolio. These policies and procedures, however, may not prevent unexpected losses that could materially affect our financial condition and results of operations.