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Marinus Pharmaceuticals Inc (MRNS)
NASDAQ:MRNS
US Market

Marinus (MRNS) Risk Analysis

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Public companies are required to disclose risks that can affect the business and impact the stock. These disclosures are known as “Risk Factors”. Companies disclose these risks in their yearly (Form 10-K), quarterly earnings (Form 10-Q), or “foreign private issuer” reports (Form 20-F). Risk factors show the challenges a company faces. Investors can consider the worst-case scenarios before making an investment. TipRanks’ Risk Analysis categorizes risks based on proprietary classification algorithms and machine learning.

Marinus disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Marinus reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Risk Overview Q3, 2024

Risk Distribution
62Risks
27% Finance & Corporate
26% Tech & Innovation
26% Legal & Regulatory
10% Ability to Sell
8% Production
3% Macro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
This chart displays the stock's most recent risk distribution according to category. TipRanks has identified 6 major categories: Finance & corporate, legal & regulatory, macro & political, production, tech & innovation, and ability to sell.

Risk Change Over Time

2022
Q4
S&P500 Average
Sector Average
Risks removed
Risks added
Risks changed
Marinus Risk Factors
New Risk (0)
Risk Changed (0)
Risk Removed (0)
No changes from previous report
The chart shows the number of risks a company has disclosed. You can compare this to the sector average or S&P 500 average.

The quarters shown in the chart are according to the calendar year (January to December). Businesses set their own financial calendar, known as a fiscal year. For example, Walmart ends their financial year at the end of January to accommodate the holiday season.

Risk Highlights Q3, 2024

Main Risk Category
Finance & Corporate
With 17 Risks
Finance & Corporate
With 17 Risks
Number of Disclosed Risks
62
+4
From last report
S&P 500 Average: 31
62
+4
From last report
S&P 500 Average: 31
Recent Changes
5Risks added
0Risks removed
0Risks changed
Since Sep 2024
5Risks added
0Risks removed
0Risks changed
Since Sep 2024
Number of Risk Changed
0
-2
From last report
S&P 500 Average: 3
0
-2
From last report
S&P 500 Average: 3
See the risk highlights of Marinus in the last period.

Risk Word Cloud

The most common phrases about risk factors from the most recent report. Larger texts indicate more widely used phrases.

Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 62

Finance & Corporate
Total Risks: 17/62 (27%)Below Sector Average
Share Price & Shareholder Rights6 | 9.7%
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 1
Added
If our stock price continues to remain below $1.00 or our market value of listed securities remains below $50 million, or we fail to meet other listing requirements of the Nasdaq Stock Market, our common stock may be subject to delisting from the Nasdaq Stock Market, which would materially reduce the liquidity of our common stock and have an adverse effect on our market price.
Our common stock is listed on the Nasdaq Global Market, and we are therefore subject to its continued listing requirements, including requirements with respect to the market value of publicly-held shares, market value of listed shares, minimum bid price per share, and minimum stockholders' equity, among others, and requirements relating to board and committee independence. If we fail to satisfy one or more of the requirements, we may be delisted from the Nasdaq Global Market. Nasdaq Listing Rule 5450(a)(1) requires companies listed on the Nasdaq Global Market to maintain a minimum bid price of at least $1.00 per share. If the minimum bid price of our common stock remains below $1.00 per share for 30 consecutive business days, Nasdaq will send us a notice that we are not in compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5450(a)(1). In accordance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5810(c)(3)(A), we would then have a period of 180 calendar days to regain compliance with the minimum bid price requirement. To regain compliance, the closing bid price of our common stock would have to meet or exceed $1.00 per share for at least ten consecutive business days during this 180 calendar day period. In the event we did not regain compliance by the end of such period, we could be eligible for an additional 180 calendar day grace period, provided that we submit an online transfer application to transfer the listing of our common stock to the Nasdaq Capital Market, submit an application fee, and meet the continued listing requirement for market value of publicly held shares and all other initial listing standards for the Nasdaq Capital Market, except the bid price requirement. In addition, we will be required to provide written notice of our intention to cure the deficiency during the second compliance period by effecting a reverse stock split if necessary. If it appears to Nasdaq that we would not be able to cure the deficiency during the second compliance period, or if we determined not to submit a transfer application or make the required representation, Nasdaq would provide written notice to us that our common stock would be subject to delisting. In the event of such notification, we could appeal Nasdaq's determination to delist our securities, but there can be no assurance that Nasdaq would grant our request for continued listing. Additionally, Nasdaq Listing Rule 5450(b)(2) requires companies listed on the Nasdaq Global Market to maintain a total market value of listed securities of at least $50 million. If the total market value of our listed securities remains below $50 million for 30 consecutive business days, Nasdaq will send us a notice that we are not in compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5450(b)(2). In accordance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5810(c)(3)(C), we would then have a period of 180 calendar days to regain compliance with the total market value of listed securities requirement. To regain compliance, the total market value of our listed securities would have to meet or exceed $50 million for at least ten consecutive business days during this 180 calendar day period. In the event we did not regain compliance by the end of such period, Nasdaq would provide written notice to us that our common stock would be subject to delisting. In the event of such notification, we could appeal Nasdaq's determination to delist our securities, but there can be no assurance that Nasdaq would grant our request for continued listing. We are actively monitoring our stock price and our market value of listed securities, and will consider any and all options available to us to maintain or, if necessary, regain compliance. There can be no assurance, however, that we will be able to maintain or, if necessary, regain compliance and meet Nasdaq's continued listing requirements. To the extent that we are unable to maintain or, if necessary, regain compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5450(a)(1) and Rule 5450(b)(2) or the other requirements of Nasdaq for continued listing, there is a risk that our common stock may be delisted from Nasdaq. Delisting from Nasdaq may limit the range and attractiveness of strategic alternatives that we are able to consider, adversely affect our ability to raise additional financing through the public or private sale of equity securities, significantly affect the ability of investors to trade our securities, or negatively affect the value and liquidity of our common stock. Delisting also could have other negative results, including the potential loss of employee confidence, the loss of institutional investors or interest in business development opportunities. If we are delisted from Nasdaq and we are not able to list our common stock on another exchange, our common stock may be eligible to trade on an over-the-counter system, such as the OTCQB market, where an investor may find it more difficult to sell our common stock or obtain accurate quotations as to the market value of our common stock. We cannot assure you that our common stock, if delisted from Nasdaq, will be listed on another national securities exchange or quoted on an over-the-counter quotation system.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 2
Raising additional capital could dilute our stockholders, restrict our operations or require us to relinquish rights to ganaxolone or any other future product candidates.
Until we can generate substantial revenue from product sales, if ever, we expect to seek additional capital through a combination of private and public equity offerings, debt financings, government funding, collaborations, licensing arrangements and other commercial transactions and funding opportunities. To the extent that we raise additional capital through the sale of equity or convertible debt securities, the ownership interests of stockholders will be diluted, and the terms may include liquidation or other preferences that adversely affect the rights of stockholders. Debt financing or other commercial transactions, if available, may involve agreements that include liens or restrictive covenants limiting our ability to take important actions, such as incurring additional debt, making capital expenditures or declaring dividends. If we raise additional funds through collaborations, licensing arrangements or other commercial with third parties, we may have to relinquish valuable rights to ganaxolone or any other future product candidates in particular countries, or grant licenses on terms that are not favorable to us. If we are unable to raise additional funds when needed, we may be required to delay, limit, reduce or terminate our product development or commercialization efforts or grant rights to develop and market ganaxolone or any other future product candidates that we would otherwise prefer to develop and market ourselves.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 3
The market price of our stock has been, and may continue to be, highly volatile, and you could lose all or part of your investment.
Historically, the trading price of our common stock has been highly volatile, and it is likely that such price will continue to be volatile in the future. The trading price of our common stock could be subject to wide fluctuations in response to various factors, some of which are beyond our control. In addition to the factors discussed elsewhere in this "Risk Factors" section, these factors could include: - the success of competitive products or technologies;- regulatory actions with respect to our products or our competitors' products;- actual or anticipated changes in our growth rate relative to our competitors;- announcements by us or our competitors of significant acquisitions, strategic partnerships, joint ventures, collaborations or capital commitments;- developments or disputes concerning patent applications, issued patents or other proprietary rights;- the level of expenses related to our clinical development programs;- the results of our efforts to in-license or acquire additional product candidates or products;- actual or anticipated changes in estimates as to financial results, development timelines or recommendations by securities analysts;- variations in our financial results or those of companies that are perceived to be similar to us;- fluctuations in the valuation of companies perceived by investors to be comparable to us;- share price and volume fluctuations attributable to inconsistent trading volume levels of our shares;- announcement or expectation of additional financing efforts;- sales of our common stock by us, our insiders or our other stockholders;- changes in the structure of healthcare payment systems; and - other events or factors, many of which are beyond our control. In addition, the stock market in general, the Nasdaq Global Market and pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies in particular, have experienced extreme price and volume fluctuations that have often been unrelated or disproportionate to the operating performance of these companies. Broad market and industry factors may negatively affect the market price of our common stock, regardless of our actual operating performance. The realization of any of these risks or any of a broad range of other risks, including those described in these "Risk Factors," could have a dramatic and material adverse impact on the market price of our common stock.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 4
Insiders have substantial influence over us and could delay or prevent a change in corporate control.
We estimate that our executive officers, directors and holders of 5% or more of our capital stock collectively beneficially own approximately 58.0% of our voting stock. Upon conversion of our outstanding pre-funded warrants, as of December 31, 2023, our executive officers, directors and holders of 5% or more of our capital stock collectively would beneficially own approximately 55.9% of our voting stock. This concentration of ownership could harm the market price of our common stock by delaying, deferring or preventing a strategic transaction, even if such a transaction would benefit other stockholders. The interests of this group of stockholders may not always coincide with your interests or the interests of other stockholders and they may act in a manner that advances their best interests and not necessarily those of other stockholders, including seeking a premium value for their common stock, and might negatively affect the prevailing market price for our common stock.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 5
Some provisions of our charter documents and Delaware law may have anti-takeover effects that could discourage an acquisition of us by others, even if an acquisition would be beneficial to our stockholders and may prevent attempts by our stockholders to replace or remove our current management.
Provisions in our fourth amended and restated certificate of incorporation, as amended (Certificate of Incorporation) and amended and restated bylaws, as well as provisions of Delaware law, could make it more difficult for a third party to acquire us or increase the cost of acquiring us, even if doing so would benefit our stockholders, or remove our current management. These include provisions that: - permit our board of directors to issue up to 25,000,000 shares of preferred stock, with any rights, preferences and privileges as it may designate, of which no shares of preferred stock are outstanding;- provide that all vacancies on our board of directors, including as a result of newly created directorships, may, except as otherwise required by law, be filled by the affirmative vote of a majority of directors then in office, even if less than a quorum;- establish a classified board of directors such that only one of three classes of directors is elected each year;- provide that directors can only be removed for cause;- require that any action to be taken by our stockholders must be effected at a duly called annual or special meeting of stockholders and not be taken by written consent;- provide that stockholders seeking to present proposals before a meeting of stockholders or to nominate candidates for election as directors at a meeting of stockholders must provide advance notice in writing, and also specify requirements as to the form and content of a stockholder's notice;- not provide for cumulative voting rights, thereby allowing the holders of a majority of the shares of common stock entitled to vote in any election of directors to elect all of the directors standing for election; and - provide that special meetings of our stockholders may be called only by the chairperson of the board of directors, the chief executive officer or the board of directors. These provisions may frustrate or prevent any attempts by our stockholders to replace or remove our current management by making it more difficult for stockholders to replace members of our board of directors, who are responsible for appointing the members of our management. Because we are incorporated in Delaware, we are governed by the provisions of Section 203 of the Delaware General Corporation Law (DGCL), which prohibits, with some exceptions, stockholders owning in excess of 15.0% of our outstanding capital stock from merging or combining with us.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 6
Our Certificate of Incorporation contains exclusive forum provisions, which could limit our stockholders' ability to obtain a favorable judicial forum for disputes with us or our directors, officers, employees or agents.
Our Certificate of Incorporation provides that, unless we consent in writing to the selection of an alternative forum, the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware shall be the sole and exclusive forum for (a) any derivative action or proceeding brought on our behalf, (b) any action asserting a claim of breach of a fiduciary duty owed by any of our directors, officers, employees or agents to us or our stockholders, (c) any action asserting a claim arising pursuant to any provision of the DGCL, or (d) any action asserting a claim that is governed by the internal affairs doctrine, in each such case subject to such Court of Chancery's having personal jurisdiction over the indispensable parties named as defendants therein. For the avoidance of doubt, the exclusive forum provisions described above do not apply to any claims arising under the Securities Act or under the Exchange Act. Section 27 of the Exchange Act creates exclusive federal jurisdiction over all suits brought to enforce any duty or liability created by the Exchange Act or the rules and regulations thereunder, and Section 22 of the Securities Act creates concurrent jurisdiction for federal and state courts over all suits brought to enforce any duty or liability created by the Securities Act or the rules and regulations thereunder. The choice of forum provisions in our Certificate of Incorporation may limit our stockholders' ability to bring a claim in a judicial forum that they find favorable for disputes with us or our directors, officers, employees or agents, which may discourage such lawsuits against us and our directors, officers, employees and agents even though an action, if successful, might benefit our stockholders. The applicable courts may also reach different judgments or results than would other courts, including courts where a stockholder considering an action may be located or would otherwise choose to bring the action, and such judgments or results may be more favorable to us than to our stockholders. With respect to the provision making the Court of Chancery the sole and exclusive forum for certain types of actions, stockholders who do bring a claim in the Court of Chancery could face additional litigation costs in pursuing any such claim, particularly if they do not reside in or near Delaware. Finally, if a court were to find these provisions of our Certificate of Incorporation inapplicable to, or unenforceable in respect of, one or more of the specified types of actions or proceedings, we may incur additional costs associated with resolving such matters in other jurisdictions, which could have a material adverse effect on the company.
Accounting & Financial Operations4 | 6.5%
Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 1
Our operating results may fluctuate significantly in the future, which may cause our results to fall below the expectations of securities analysts, stockholders and investors.
Our operating results may fluctuate significantly in the future as a result of a variety of factors, many of which are outside of our control. These factors include, but are not limited to: - the timing, implementation and cost of our research, preclinical studies and clinical trials;- our ability to attract and retain personnel with the necessary strategic, technical and creative skills required for effective operations;- introduction of new technologies;- product liability litigation, class action and derivative action litigation, or other litigation;- the amount and timing of capital expenditures and other costs relating to the expansion of our operations;- the state of the debt and/or equity capital markets at the time of any proposed offering we choose to initiate;- our ability to successfully integrate new acquisitions into our operations;- government regulation and legal developments regarding ganaxolone in the U.S. and in the foreign countries in which we may operate in the future; and - general economic conditions. As a strategic response to changes in the competitive environment, we may from time to time make pricing, service, technology or marketing decisions or business or technology acquisitions that could have a material adverse effect on our operating results. Due to any of these factors, our operating results may fall below the expectations of securities analysts, stockholders and investors in any future period, which may cause our stock price to decline.
Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 2
We have a limited operating history, which may make it difficult for you to evaluate the success of our business to date and to assess our future viability.
Our operations to date have been limited to conducting preclinical and clinical development and regulatory activities for ganaxolone as well as early commercialization of ZTALMY for CDD in the U.S. In addition, we have not yet demonstrated an ability to successfully overcome many of the risks and uncertainties frequently encountered by companies in new and rapidly evolving fields, particularly in the pharmaceutical area. Commercial sales from ZTALMY for CDD, an ultra rare disease, are not expected to be sufficient to fund our clinical development of new indications for ganaxolone, including RSE and TSC. Consequently, any predictions about our future performance may not be as accurate as they would be if we had a longer history of successfully developing and commercializing pharmaceutical products. Further, our budgeted expense levels are based in part on our expectations concerning the costs of our continued commercialization of ZTALMY and on our research, preclinical development and clinical trials, which depend on the success of such activities, and our ability to effectively and efficiently conduct such research, preclinical development, clinical trials and our expectations related to our efforts to achieve FDA or foreign regulatory approval with respect to ganaxolone for additional indications. Our limited operating history and clinical trial experience make these costs difficult to forecast accurately. We may be unable to adjust our operations in a timely manner to compensate for any unexpected increase in costs. Further, our manufacturing costs and operating expenses may increase significantly as we expand our operations and our commercial activities. Accordingly, a significant increase in costs could have an immediate and material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 3
Our ability to use our net operating loss carryforwards and other tax attributes may be limited.
As of December 31, 2023, we had U.S. net operating loss, or NOL, carryforwards of approximately $292.2 million for U.S. federal income tax and approximately $240.1 million for state income tax purposes available to offset future taxable income and U.S. federal and state research and development tax credits of approximately $39.6 million, prior to consideration of annual limitations that may be imposed under Section 382 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended, or Section 382. Our U.S. NOL carryforwards begin to expire in 2029 if not utilized. The NOL carry forwards are subject to review and possible adjustment by the Internal Revenue Service and state tax authorities. NOL and tax credit carry forwards are subject to an annual limitation due to certain cumulative changes in the ownership interest of significant stockholders over a three year period in excess of 50%, as defined under Sections 382 and 383 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended, as well as similar state tax provisions. This limits the amount of NOLs that we can utilize annually to offset future taxable income or tax liabilities. The amount of the annual limitation is determined based on the value of our company immediately prior to an ownership change. Subsequent ownership changes may further affect the limitation in future years. In addition, U.S. tax laws limit the time during which these carry forwards may be applied against future taxes, therefore, we may not be able to take full advantage of these carry forwards for federal income tax purposes. We may experience additional ownership changes in the future as a result of subsequent shifts in our stock ownership, including through completed or contemplated financings, some of which may be outside of our control. If we determine that a future ownership change has occurred and our ability to use our historical net operating loss and tax credit carryforwards is materially limited, it would harm our future operating results by effectively increasing our future tax obligations. Furthermore, the losses could expire before we generate sufficient income to utilize them.
Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 4
We have generated limited revenue to date from product sales. We may never achieve or sustain profitability, which could depress the market price of our common stock, and could cause you to lose all or a part of your investment.
To date, we have generated limited revenue from sales of ZTALMY and no revenue from sales of other formulations being developed for ganaxolone. The extent to which we can generate revenue from product sales and achieve profitability depends upon our ability to continue to successfully commercialize ZTALMY in the U.S., Orion's ability to successfully commercialize ZTALMY in Europe, and our ability to successfully develop ganaxolone in additional indications or other product candidates that we may develop, in-license or acquire in the future. Our ability to continue to generate revenue from product sales of ZTALMY and from additional indications we are developing for ganaxolone or any other future product candidates also depends on a number of additional factors, including our ability to: - successfully complete pre-clinical and clinical development activities, including enrollment of clinical trial participants, completion of the necessary pre-clinical studies and clinical trials and attainment of study and trial results that will support regulatory approvals;- complete and submit NDAs to the FDA, MAAs with the EMA and other marketing authorization filings with regulatory agencies in other countries, and obtain regulatory approval for indications, other than CDD in the U.S. and EU, for which there is a commercial market;- continue to make or have made commercial quantities of our products at acceptable cost levels;- maintain a commercial organization capable of having manufacturing, selling, marketing and distributing any products we intend to sell ourselves in the markets in which we choose to commercialize on our own;- find suitable partners to help us market, sell and distribute our approved products in other markets;- obtain adequate pricing, coverage and reimbursement from third parties, including government and private payers;- launch and commercialize ZTALMY in other indications being developed for ganaxolone and any other future product candidates for which we obtain regulatory approval;- obtain market acceptance of ZTALMY in other indications being developed for ganaxolone and any other future product candidates as viable treatment options;- address any competing technological and market developments;- implement additional internal systems and infrastructure, as needed;- identify and validate new product candidates;- negotiate favorable terms in any collaboration, licensing or other commercial arrangements into which we may enter;- resolve potential intellectual property disputes with third parties;- maintain, protect and expand our portfolio of intellectual property rights, including patents, trade secrets and know-how; and - attract, hire and retain qualified personnel. In addition, because of the numerous risks and uncertainties associated with product development, including that ganaxolone may not advance through development or achieve the endpoints of applicable preclinical studies and clinical trials for ganaxolone in the other indications we are developing, we are unable to predict the timing or amount of increased expenses, or if or when we will be able to achieve or maintain profitability. Our expenses could increase beyond expectations if we are required by the FDA or other regulatory agencies, domestic or foreign, to perform preclinical studies and clinical trials or other studies in addition to those that we currently anticipate. Even if we are able to complete the development and regulatory process for ZTALMY or ganaxolone in the other indications we are developing, we anticipate incurring significant costs associated with commercializing ZTALMY, any other indications for ganaxolone or other product candidates. Even if we are able to generate substantial revenue from the sale of ZTALMY, other indications being developed for ganaxolone or any future commercial products, we may not become profitable and will need to obtain additional funding to continue operations. If we fail to become profitable or are unable to sustain profitability on a continuing basis, and we are not successful in obtaining additional funding, then we may be unable to continue our operations at planned levels, or at all, which would likely materially and adversely affect our business and the market price of our common stock.
Debt & Financing3 | 4.8%
Debt & Financing - Risk 1
We will require additional capital to fund our operations and if we fail to obtain necessary financing, we may be unable to continue to successfully commercialize ZTALMY in the U.S. or complete the development and, if approved, commercialization of ganaxolone in the other indications we are developing.
Our operations have consumed substantial amounts of cash since inception. We expect to continue to spend substantial amounts to commercialize ZTALMY in the U.S. and to advance the clinical and regulatory development of ganaxolone in the other geographic regions and indications we are developing and, if approved, commercialize ganaxolone in those indications. If we are unable to raise capital when needed or on attractive terms, we could be forced to delay, reduce or eliminate our commercialization efforts or our research and development programs. We believe that our existing Cash and cash equivalents and Short-term investments of $150.3 million as of December 31, 2023 will be sufficient to fund our operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements, as well as maintain the minimum cash balance required under our debt facility, into the fourth quarter of 2024. We have based this estimate on assumptions that may prove to be wrong, and we could exhaust our available capital resources sooner than we currently expect. Our future funding requirements, both near and long-term, will depend on many factors, including, but not limited to: - the results of our preclinical studies and clinical trials;- the development, formulation and commercialization activities related to ganaxolone, including ZTALMY;- the scope, progress, results and costs of researching and developing ganaxolone, including ZTALMY, or any other future product candidates, and conducting preclinical studies and clinical trials;- the timing of, and the costs involved in, obtaining regulatory approvals for ganaxolone, including ZTALMY in indications other than CDD in the U.S., EU, or other significant markets, and any other future product candidates in these markets;- the cost of commercialization activities for ZTALMY for CDD in the U.S., including marketing, sales and distribution costs;- the cost of commercialization activities for ZTALMY, and of ganaxolone in any other indications or any other future product candidates that are approved for sale, including marketing, sales and distribution costs;- the cost of manufacturing and formulating ganaxolone, or any other future product candidates, to internal and regulatory standards for use in preclinical studies, clinical trials and, if approved, commercial sale;- our ability to establish and maintain strategic collaborations, licensing or other arrangements and the financial terms of such agreements;- our ability to receive funding under the BARDA Contract;- our expectations regarding the amount and timing of milestone and royalty payments owed to us pursuant to our collaboration agreement with Orion for the commercialization of ganaxolone in Europe, our exclusive license agreement with Tenacia for the commercialization of ganaxolone in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan and our exclusive distribution and supply agreement with Biologix for the distribution and supply of ganaxolone in the Middle East and North Africa region;- our expectations regarding the amount and timing of milestone and royalty payments owed by us pursuant to our revenue interest financing agreement with Sagard Healthcare Royalty Partners, LP (Sagard);- any product liability, infringement or other lawsuits related to ZTALMY or other indications being developed for ganaxolone or any other future product candidates and, if approved, products;- capital needed to attract and retain skilled personnel;- the costs involved in preparing, filing, prosecuting, maintaining, defending and enforcing patent claims, including litigation costs and the outcome of such litigation; and - the timing, receipt and amount of sales of, or royalties on, ZTALMY for CDD and on future approved products, if any. If we are unable to expand our operations or otherwise capitalize on our business opportunities due to a lack of capital, our ability to become profitable will be compromised. Failure to progress our product development or commercialization of ganaxolone as anticipated will have a negative effect on our business, future prospects and ability to obtain further financing on acceptable terms, if at all, and the value of the enterprise, which could require us to, among other things: - significantly delay, scale back or discontinue the development or commercialization of ganaxolone or one or more other research and development initiatives;- seek collaborators for one or more of our current or future product candidates at an earlier stage than otherwise would be desirable or on terms that are less favorable than might otherwise be available;- sell or license on unfavorable terms our rights to ganaxolone or one or more future product candidates that we otherwise would seek to develop or commercialize ourselves; or - seek bankruptcy protection.
Debt & Financing - Risk 2
Our failure to comply with the covenants or other terms of the Credit Agreement or Revenue Interest Financing Agreement, including as a result of events beyond our control, could result in a default under these agreements that could materially and adversely affect the ongoing viability of our business.
On May 11, 2021 (Credit Agreement Closing Date), we entered into a Credit Agreement and Guaranty (as amended by that certain letter agreement on May 17, 2021, that certain letter agreement on May 23, 2022 and that certain Limited Consent and First Amendment to Credit Agreement on October 28, 2022, the Credit Agreement) with Oaktree Fund Administration, LLC, as administrative agent (Oaktree) and the lenders party thereto (collectively, the Lenders) that provided for a five-year senior secured term loan facility in an aggregate original principal amount of up to $125.0 million, which consisted of (i) tranche A-1 term loans in an aggregate principal amount of $15.0 million advanced on the Credit Agreement Closing Date; (ii) tranche A-2 term loans in an aggregate principal amount of $30.0 million advanced on September 27, 2021; (iii) tranche B term loans in an aggregate principal amount of $30.0 million advanced on March 30, 2022; (iv) tranche C term loans in an aggregate principal amount of $25.0 million (Tranche C Term Loans); and (v) tranche D term loans in an aggregate principal amount of $25.0 million (collectively, the Term Loans). In May 2022, we delivered to Oaktree a separate notice of commitment termination with respect to the tranche D term loans (Tranche D Term Loans) commitment, and in August 2023, we delivered to Oaktree a separate notice of commitment termination with respect to the Tranche C Term Loans commitment. Our ability to draw each tranche of the Term Loans was subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions applicable to each tranche as specified in the Credit Agreement. The Term Loans bear interest at a fixed per annum rate (subject to increase during an event of default) of 11.50% and are scheduled to mature on the fifth anniversary of the Credit Agreement Closing Date (Maturity Date). In addition, at the time of funding of any tranche of the Term Loans, we were required to pay an upfront fee of 2.0% of the aggregate principal amount being funded. We are required to make quarterly interest payments until the Maturity Date. We are also required to make principal payments, which are payable in quarterly installments beginning on the last day of the first quarter ending after the third anniversary of the Credit Agreement Closing Date, in an amount equal to 5.0% of the aggregate amount of the Term Loans outstanding on the date of the first such quarterly principal payment and continuing until the Maturity Date, on which date all outstanding Term Loans and other amounts owed under the Credit Agreement will be required to be paid in full. The Term Loans will be guaranteed by certain of our future subsidiaries. Our obligations under the Credit Agreement and the guarantee of such obligations are secured, subject to customary permitted liens and other agreed upon exceptions and subject to an intercreditor agreement with Sagard Healthcare Royalty Partners, LP (Sagard), by a pledge of substantially all of our assets and will be secured by a pledge of substantially all of the assets of the future guarantors. The Credit Agreement contains various covenants that limit our ability to engage in specified types of transactions without Oaktree's prior consent, as well as a financial covenant that requires us to maintain at all times Cash and cash equivalents in certain deposit accounts in an amount at least equal to the funding of the tranche B term loans until the Maturity Date, $15.0 million. Oaktree may elect to accelerate the repayment of all unpaid principal of the Term Loans, accrued interest and other amounts owed under the Credit Agreement upon consummation of a specified change of control transaction or the occurrence of certain events of default (as specified in the Credit Agreement), including, among other things: - our default in a payment obligation under the Credit Agreement;- our breach of the restrictive covenants or other terms of the Credit Agreement;- our breach of reporting obligations;- our failure to properly maintain the collateral;- certain regulatory actions that cause an ongoing delay in commercialization of ganaxolone and which could reasonably be expected to result in a material adverse effect;- a recall of ganaxolone that could reasonably be expected to result in a material adverse effect;- an injunction against the sale or manufacture of ganaxolone for more than 45 days that could, after the termination of such 45-day period, reasonably be expected to result in a material adverse effect; and - certain specified insolvency and bankruptcy-related events. Subject to any applicable cure period set forth in the Credit Agreement, all amounts outstanding with respect to the Term Loans (principal and accrued interest), as well as any applicable prepayment premiums, interest "make-whole" payments or exit fees, would become due and payable (i) immediately, in the case of a payment or bankruptcy event of default or (ii) in the case of any other event of default, upon the request of Lenders holding at least a majority of the outstanding Term Loans and Term Loan commitments, at a default interest rate of 13.50%. Our assets or cash flow may not be sufficient to fully repay our obligations under the Term Loans if the obligations thereunder are accelerated upon any events of default. Further, if we are unable to repay, refinance or restructure our obligations under the Term Loans, Oaktree on behalf of the Lenders could proceed to protect and enforce their rights under the Credit Agreement and other loan documents by exercising such remedies (including foreclosure on the assets securing our obligations under the Credit Agreement and the other loan documents) as are available to Oaktree and the Lenders and in respect thereof under applicable law, either by suit in equity or by action at law, or both, whether for specific performance of any covenant or other agreement contained in the Credit Agreement or other loan documents or in aid of the exercise of any power granted in the Credit Agreement or other loan documents. The foregoing would materially and adversely affect the ongoing viability of our business. On October 28, 2022 (RIFA Closing Date), we entered into a revenue interest financing agreement (Revenue Interest Financing Agreement) with Sagard pursuant to which Sagard agreed to pay us $32.5 million (Investment Amount) to provide funding for our development and commercialization of ganaxolone and related pharmaceutical products, including the commercial launch of ZTALMY, and for working capital and general administrative purposes. In exchange for the Investment Amount, we have agreed to make quarterly payments to Sagard (the Payments) as follows: (i) for each calendar quarter from and after the RIFA Closing Date through and including the quarter ended June 30, 2026, an amount equal to 7.5% of (a) our net sales of ZTALMY and all other pharmaceutical products that contain ganaxolone (Net Sales), in each case with any dosage form, dosing regimen, or strength, or any improvements related thereto (collectively, the Included Products); and (b) payments received by us in connection with the manufacture, development and sale of Included Products in the U.S., including in connection with any out-licensing of U.S. rights to any Included Product (Other Included Payments, and together with Net Sales, Product Revenue), and (ii) for each calendar quarter following the calendar quarter ended June 30, 2026, an amount equal to (x) 15.0% of the first $100.0 million in annual Product Revenues of the Included Products and (y) 7.5% of annual Product Revenues of the Included Products in excess of $100.0 million. The Payments are subject to a hard cap equal to 190% ($61.8 million) of the Investment Amount (Hard Cap). Sagard's right to receive payments will terminate when Sagard has received payments in respect of the Included Products, including any additional payments described below, equal to the Hard Cap. Further, we have the right to make voluntary prepayments to Sagard, and such payments will be credited against the Hard Cap. If Sagard has not received aggregate payments equaling at least 100% of the Investment Amount by December 31, 2027 or at least 190% of the Investment Amount by December 31, 2032 (each, a Minimum Amount), then we will be obligated to make a cash payment to Sagard in an amount sufficient to gross up Sagard up to the applicable Minimum Amount within a specified period of time after each reference date. The obligations under the Revenue Interest Financing Agreement, including the Payments, will be guaranteed by certain of our future subsidiaries (Subsidiaries) that are required to become a party thereto as guarantors (Guarantors). Our obligations under the Revenue Interest Financing Agreement and the guarantee of such obligations are secured, subject to customary permitted liens and other agreed upon exceptions and subject to an intercreditor agreement with Oaktree as administrative agent for the lenders under the Credit Agreement, by a pledge of substantially all of ours and the Guarantors' assets that relate to, or are used or held for use for, the development, manufacture, use and/or commercialization of ZTALMY and all other pharmaceutical products that contain ganaxolone in the U.S., including the Product Revenue, pursuant to the terms of the Security Agreement dated as of the RIFA Closing Date by and among us, the Guarantors from time to time party thereto, and Sagard (Security Agreement). At any time, we have the right, but not the obligation (Call Option), to repurchase all, but not less than all, of Sagard's interest in the Payments at a repurchase price (Put/Call Price) equal to: (a) on or before the third anniversary of the RIFA Closing Date, 160% of the Investment Amount; (b) after the third anniversary but on or prior to the fourth anniversary of the RIFA Closing Date, 180% of the Investment Amount; and (c) after the fourth anniversary of the RIFA Closing Date, 190% of the Investment Amount, in each case, less the aggregate of all of our payments in respect of the Payments made to Sagard prior to such date. The Revenue Interest Financing Agreement contains certain restrictions on ours and our Subsidiaries' abilities, among other things, to incur additional debt, grant or permit additional liens, make investments and acquisitions, dispose of assets, pay dividends and distributions and enter into affiliate transactions, in each case, subject to certain exceptions. In addition, the Revenue Interest Financing Agreement contains a financial covenant that requires us to maintain at all times Cash and cash equivalents in certain deposit accounts in an amount at least equal to (i) from the RIFA Closing Date until the repayment of the loans under the Credit Agreement, $15.0 million and (ii) thereafter, $10.0 million. In addition, the Revenue Interest Financing Agreement provides that if certain events occur, including certain bankruptcy events, a change of control, non-payment of Payments, divestiture of rights to commercialize Included Products in the U.S., divestiture of certain assets related to the Included Products (subject to customary carve-outs), and (subject to applicable cure periods) non-compliance with the covenants in the Revenue Interest Financing Agreement, Sagard has the right, but not the obligation, to require us to repurchase all, but not less than all, of Sagard's interest in the Payments at the Put/Call Price. Our assets or cash flow may not be sufficient to fully repurchase all of Sagard's interest in the Payments if such obligation is triggered upon any events of default. Further, if we are unable to repay, refinance or restructure our obligations under the Revenue Interest Financing Agreement, Sagard could proceed to protect and enforce its rights under the Revenue Interest Financing Agreement and other transaction documents by exercising such remedies (including foreclosure on the assets securing our obligations under the Revenue Interest Financing Agreement and the other transaction documents) as are available to Sagard and in respect thereof under applicable law, either by suit in equity or by action at law, or both, whether for specific performance of any covenant or other agreement contained in the Revenue Interest Financing Agreement or other transaction documents or in aid of the exercise of any power granted in the Revenue Interest Financing Agreement or other transaction documents. The foregoing would materially and adversely affect the ongoing viability of our business.
Debt & Financing - Risk 3
Our Credit Agreement and Revenue Interest Financing Agreement contain restrictions that limit our flexibility in operating our business.
The Credit Agreement and the Revenue Interest Financing Agreement contain various covenants that limit our ability to engage in specified types of transactions without the prior consent of Oaktree and the Lenders holding a majority of the Term Loan commitments and/or Sagard, as applicable. These covenants limit our ability to, among other things: - sell, transfer, lease or dispose of our assets;- create, incur or assume additional indebtedness;- encumber or permit liens on certain of our assets;- make restricted payments, including paying dividends on, repurchasing or making distributions with respect to our common stock;- make specified investments (including acquisitions, loans and advances);- consolidate, merge, sell or otherwise dispose of all or substantially all of our assets;- enter into certain transactions with our affiliates;- grant certain license rights related to our products, technology and other intellectual property rights;- in the case of the Credit Agreement, permit our Cash and cash equivalents held in certain deposit accounts to at any time be less than $15.0 million from the funding date of the tranche B term loans until the Maturity Date; and - in the case of the Revenue Interest Financing Agreement, permit our Cash and cash equivalents held in certain deposit accounts to be less than (i) from the RIFA Closing Date until the repayment of the loans under the Credit Agreement, $15.0 million and (ii) thereafter, $10.0 million. The covenants in our Credit Agreement, Revenue Interest Financing Agreement and related security agreements may limit our ability to take certain actions that may be in our long-term best interests. In the event that we breach one or more covenants, Oaktree and/or Sagard may choose to declare an event of default and (i) in the case of the Credit Agreement, require that we immediately repay all amounts outstanding under the Credit Agreement, plus penalties and interest, terminate the Lenders' commitments to fund any undrawn Term Loan tranches and foreclose on the collateral granted to them to secure the obligations under the Credit Agreement and the other loan documents and/or (ii) in the case of the Revenue Interest Financing Agreement, require that we repurchase all, but not less than all, of Sagard's interest in the Payments and foreclose on the collateral granted to them to secure the obligations under the Revenue Interest Financing Agreement and the other transaction documents. Such repayment could have a material adverse effect on our business, operating results and financial condition.
Corporate Activity and Growth4 | 6.5%
Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 1
Added
We are in the process of evaluating strategic alternatives following the failure of TrustTSC to meet its primary endpoint, and we may need to pursue bankruptcy or dissolution if we are not able to identify and implement a meaningful strategic alternative in a timely manner.
On October 24, 2024, we announced that TrustTSC did not meet the primary endpoint of percent change in 28-day TSC-associated seizure frequency. As a result of this, we discontinued further ganaxolone clinical development, other than activities required by the FDA and EMA specific to post-approval commitments of ZTALMY for CDD. Our existing cash and cash equivalents will not be sufficient to continue our operations as planned and, as a result, we have commenced a process to explore strategic alternatives with the goal of maximizing value for our stockholders, which may include the sale of the company, a strategic partnership with one or more parties, or the licensing, sale or divestiture of some or more of our assets, in addition to other alternatives. We have engaged Barclays to assist in reviewing our strategic alternatives. However, any strategic alternative that may be pursued and completed ultimately may not deliver the anticipated benefits or enhance shareholder value. There can be no guarantee that the process of evaluating strategic alternatives will result in our company entering into or completing a potential transaction, and we have not set a timetable for the completion of this review process. Should we be unable to identify and implement a meaningful strategic alternative in a timely manner, our Board of Directors is likely to consider seeking bankruptcy protection under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code or engaging in a similar process. In that event we are required to liquidate under the federal bankruptcy laws, it is highly unlikely that our stockholders would receive any value for their shares.
Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 2
Added
Our restructuring plans and the associated headcount reductions may not result in anticipated savings, could result in total costs and expenses that are greater than expected and could disrupt our business.
On April 30, 2024, we implemented a reduction-in-force (RIF) that impacted approximately 20% of our workforce, and implemented additional cost reduction activities with impact beginning in the second quarter of 2024. On November 4, 2024, we implemented a separate RIF that impacted approximately 45% of our workforce, and implemented additional cost reduction activities with impact beginning in the fourth quarter of 2024, to reduce operating expenses and better align our workforce with the needs of our business following our discontinuance of further ganaxolone clinical development, other than activities required by the FDA and EMA specific to post-approval commitments of ZTALMY for CDD. Execution of the RIF is expected to be substantially completed by the end of 2024. As of the filing of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, in connection with the November 4, 2024 RIF, we estimate that we will incur in the fourth quarter of 2024 severance and other employee-related costs of approximately $1.5 million. We are also in the process of assessing any impact associated with the termination of certain contracts and all other activities under the November 4, 2024 RIF. We may undertake further restructuring actions or workforce reductions in the future. These types of restructuring and cost reduction activities are complex and may result in unintended consequences and costs, such as the loss of institutional knowledge and expertise, attrition beyond the intended number of employees, decreased morale among our remaining employees, and potential impacts on financial reporting. In addition, while positions have been eliminated, certain functions necessary to our operations remain, and we may be unsuccessful in retaining employees to perform such functions or in distributing the duties and obligations of departed employees among our remaining employees. These types of activities or losses could also make it difficult for us to pursue, or prevent us from pursuing, new opportunities and initiatives due to insufficient personnel, including any potential strategic alternatives. We may not realize, in full or in part, the anticipated benefits, savings and improvements in our cost structure from our restructuring efforts due to unforeseen difficulties, delays or unexpected costs. For example, we may incur unanticipated charges not currently contemplated as a result of the RIFs. If we are unable to realize the expected operational cost savings from the restructurings, our operating results and financial condition would be adversely affected.
Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 3
We have entered into and may enter into additional collaboration or out-license agreements with third parties for the development or commercialization of ganaxolone in jurisdictions outside of the United States (OUS). We will depend on these third parties for the development and/or commercialization of ganaxolone in such jurisdictions. If these collaborations or out-licenses are not successful, we may not be able to capitalize on the market potential of ganaxolone.
On July 30, 2021, we entered into a collaboration agreement (Orion Collaboration Agreement) with Orion Corporation (Orion) whereby Orion received exclusive rights to commercialize the oral and intravenous (IV) dose formulations of ganaxolone in the European Economic Area, United Kingdom and Switzerland in multiple seizure disorders, including CDD, TSC and RSE. On November 16, 2022, we entered into a collaboration and supply agreement (Tenacia Collaboration Agreement) with Tenacia Biotechnology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (Tenacia), whereby Tenacia received exclusive rights to develop, commercialize and otherwise exploit certain products incorporating certain oral and IV formulations of ganaxolone in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan for the diagnosis, prevention and treatment of certain human diseases, disorders or conditions, including CDD, TSC and SE, including RSE. In May 2023, we entered into an exclusive distribution and supply agreement (Biologix Agreement) with Biologix, whereby Biologix has the right to exclusively distribute and sell ganaxolone in Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Tunisia and United Arab Emirates. The timing and amount of any milestone and royalty payments we receive under any of these agreements will depend in part on the applicable collaborator's efforts. We have also entered into an agreement for commercialization of ganaxolone in other territories with NovaMedica whereby NovaMedica has the right to market and sell ganaxolone in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan, and we have initiated a global managed access program with Uniphar Durbin Ireland LTD to support physician access to ZTALMY for appropriate patients with seizures associated with CDD in geographies where there is no available patient access, local regulatory criteria and program eligibility are satisfied, and we do not already have a commercial distribution relationship in place. We will depend on the applicable commercial partner under each agreement to comply with all applicable laws relative to the development or commercialization of ganaxolone in the specified jurisdictions subject to the applicable agreement. We do not control the individual efforts of any of our collaborators, and any failure by any such collaborator to devote sufficient time and effort to the development or commercialization of ganaxolone could have a material adverse impact on our financial results and operations, such as a failure by such collaborator to meet its obligations to us. In addition, if a collaborator were to violate, or was alleged to have violated, any laws or regulations during the performance of its obligations for us, it is possible that we could suffer financial and reputational harm or other negative outcomes, including possible legal consequences. Any termination, breach or expiration of the Orion Collaboration Agreement, Tenacia Collaboration Agreement, Biologix Agreement or any other collaboration or out-license agreements could have a material adverse effect on our financial position by reducing or eliminating the potential for us to receive milestones and royalties. In such an event, we may be required to devote additional efforts and to incur additional costs associated with pursuing the development or commercialization of ganaxolone in the applicable jurisdictions. If we breach our obligations under the Orion Collaboration Agreement, Orion may terminate the agreement and retain all rights to commercialize ganaxolone in the applicable jurisdictions with no obligation to make any additional milestone or royalty payments to us. In addition, OUS collaborations and licenses involving ganaxolone pose a number of risks, including the following: - collaborators or licensees have significant discretion in determining the amount and timing of efforts and resources that they will apply to these collaborations or licenses;- collaborators or licensees may not perform their obligations as expected;- collaborators or licensees may delay clinical trials, provide insufficient funding for a clinical trial program, stop a clinical trial or abandon ganaxolone, repeat or conduct new clinical trials or require a new formulation of ganaxolone for clinical testing;- collaborators or licensees may not pursue commercialization and development of ganaxolone if ganaxolone receives marketing approval or may elect not to continue or renew commercialization or development programs based on clinical trial results, changes in any such collaborator's or licensee's strategic focus or available funding, or external factors, such as an acquisition, that divert resources or create competing priorities;- collaborators or licensees could independently develop, or develop with third parties, products that compete directly or indirectly with ganaxolone if the collaborators or licensees believe that competitive products are more likely to be successfully developed or can be commercialized under terms that are more economically attractive than ours;- product candidates discovered under the collaboration or license with us may be viewed by our collaborators or licensees as competitive with their own product candidates or products, which may cause collaborators or licensees to cease to devote resources to the commercialization of our product candidates;- collaborators or licensees with marketing and distribution rights to ganaxolone may not, upon achieving regulatory approval, commit sufficient resources to the marketing and distribution of ganaxolone;- collaborators or licensees could become involved in a business combination, which might deemphasize or terminate the commercialization or development of ganaxolone licensed to it by us;- disagreements with collaborators or licensees, including disagreements over proprietary rights, contract interpretation or the preferred course of development, might cause delays or termination of the research, development or commercialization of ganaxolone, might lead to additional responsibilities for us with respect to ganaxolone, or might result in litigation or arbitration, any of which would divert management attention and resources, be time-consuming and expensive;- collaborators or licensees may not properly maintain or defend our intellectual property rights or may use our proprietary information in such a way as to invite litigation that could jeopardize or invalidate our intellectual property or proprietary information or expose us to potential litigation;- collaborators or licensees may infringe the intellectual property rights of third parties, which may expose us to litigation and potential liability; and - commercialization collaborations or licenses may be terminated for the convenience of the collaborator or licensee and, if terminated, we could be required to raise additional capital to pursue further development or commercialization of ganaxolone. OUS collaboration agreements and licenses may not lead to commercialization or development of ganaxolone in the most efficient manner, or at all. If any collaborations or licenses that we enter into do not result in the successful commercialization and development of products or if one of our collaborators or licensees terminates its agreement with us, we may not receive any future research funding or milestone or royalty payments under the collaboration or license. In the second half of 2023, we were notified by one of our contract manufacturers regarding an out of specification (OOS) result for ganaxolone. We notified the FDA and EMA of this OOS result and our plans to continue to manufacture and use ganaxolone both clinically and commercially in accordance with its currently approved specifications. Neither the FDA nor the EMA have indicated any concerns with our approach to continue to use ZTALMY within currently approved specifications, including for the launch of ZTALMY in Europe. Under EU law, the qualified person (QP) is responsible for certifying that each batch of a medicinal product, such as ZTALMY, meets all required provisions, including all required product specifications and testing, when released from a manufacturing facility within the EU, or imported into the EU.  Therefore, before Orion is permitted to launch ZTALMY in Europe, its QP must approve its release. If the Orion QP delays or does not support the release of ZTALMY, the commercialization of ZTALMY in Europe will be delayed, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. Additionally, if one of our collaborators or licensees terminates its agreement with us, we may find it more difficult to attract new collaborators or licensees and our perception in the business and financial communities could be harmed. If we are unable to reach agreements with suitable new collaborators or licensees on a timely basis, on acceptable terms, or at all, we may have to curtail the development of a ganaxolone, reduce or delay its development program or one or more of our other development programs, delay its potential commercialization or reduce the scope of any sales or marketing activities, or increase our expenditures and undertake development or commercialization activities at our own expense. If we elect to fund and undertake development or commercialization activities on our own, we may need to obtain additional expertise and additional capital, which may not be available to us on acceptable terms or at all. If we fail to enter into collaborations and do not have sufficient funds or expertise to undertake the necessary development and commercialization activities, we may not be able to further develop ganaxolone or bring ganaxolone to market or continue to develop ganaxolone.
Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 4
We will need to grow the size of our organization, and we may experience difficulties in managing this growth.
As of December 31, 2023, we had 165 full-time employees and one part-time employee. As our development and continued commercialization strategies develop, or as a result of any future acquisitions, we may need additional managerial, operational, sales, marketing, financial and other resources. In addition, it may become more cost effective to bring in house certain resources currently outsourced to consultants and other third parties. Our management, personnel and systems currently in place may not be adequate to support our future growth. Future growth would impose significant added responsibilities on members of management, including: - further growing our commercial operations;- managing our clinical trials effectively;- identifying, recruiting, maintaining, motivating and integrating additional employees;- managing our internal development efforts effectively while complying with our contractual obligations to licensors, licensees, contractors and other third parties;- enhancing our managerial, development, operational and finance systems; and - expanding our facilities. As our operations expand, we will need to manage additional relationships with various strategic partners, suppliers and other third parties. Our future financial performance and our ability to commercialize ZTALMY and, if approved, ganaxolone in other indications we are currently developing, and to compete effectively will depend, in part, on our ability to manage any future growth effectively. To that end, we must be able to manage our development efforts and clinical trials effectively and hire, train and integrate additional management, administrative and sales and marketing personnel. Our failure to accomplish any of these tasks could prevent us from successfully growing our company.
Tech & Innovation
Total Risks: 16/62 (26%)Below Sector Average
Innovation / R&D7 | 11.3%
Innovation / R&D - Risk 1
We have multiple ganaxolone drug products in development, and until such products are approved by regulatory authorities, there remains the risk that the drug product quality requirements may not support continued clinical investigation and result in delays or termination of such clinical studies, and product approvals.
We currently have multiple ganaxolone drug products in clinical development, including an IV solution and a new formulation which is in Phase 1 clinical trials. While we strive to develop a full understanding of manufacturing processes used, as well as the resultant product quality attributes, there is a risk that problems may arise over the course of development which could render a given drug product non-viable. Such problems could relate to manufacturing reproducibility, scale-up challenges, drug product chemical or physical stability issues. Related quality requirements may not support continued clinical investigation and result in delays or termination of such clinical studies and product approvals. Such quality requirements can include physical and chemical attributes of the drug product, stability and shelf life, microbial and other contamination, including adverse impact of drug product packaging and administration devices. These problems could result in unacceptable manufacturing economics, or direct concerns related to drug product safety or efficacy. For example, we announced in February 2022 a product supply interruption for our IV ganaxolone clinical supplies. Routine monitoring of stability batches of IV clinical supply material showed visible particulates of aluminum phosphate in the drug solution, which led to a pause in recruitment for the RAISE trial. In May 2022, we announced that the trial had resumed utilizing new batches of the current IV formulation of ganaxolone, and we implemented a reduced shelf life of 12 months. In agreement with the FDA, ganaxolone clinical supplies with the current IV formulation will be stored under refrigerated conditions for the entire duration of clinical use. If we experience issues with product quality requirements and we are unable to resolve these issues in a timely manner or at all, we may need to delay or terminate our RAISE or other clinical trials with the current IV formulation, which could further delay our clinical development plans and future product approvals.
Innovation / R&D - Risk 2
Clinical development of product candidates involves a lengthy and expensive process with an uncertain outcome.
Clinical trials are expensive, can take many years to complete, and are inherently uncertain as to outcome. Failure can occur at any time during the clinical development process. We may experience delays in our ongoing or future clinical trials and we do not know whether planned clinical trials will begin or enroll patients on time, need to be redesigned or be completed on schedule, if at all. There can be no assurance that the FDA or other foreign regulatory authorities will not put clinical trials of ganaxolone on clinical hold now or in the future. Clinical trials may be delayed, suspended or prematurely terminated for a variety of reasons, such as: - delay or failure in reaching agreement with the FDA or a comparable foreign regulatory authority on a trial design that we are able to execute;- delay or failure in obtaining authorization to commence a trial or inability to comply with conditions imposed by a regulatory authority regarding the scope or design of a clinical trial;- delay or failure in reaching agreement on acceptable terms with prospective clinical research organizations (CROs) and clinical trial sites, the terms of which can be subject to extensive negotiation and may vary significantly among different CROs and trial sites;- lack of adequate essential functions and staff, which may impact the ability of site staff to conduct assessments, or result in delays to the conduct of the assessments, as part of our clinical trial protocols, or the ability to enter assessment results into clinical trial databases in a timely manner;- delay or failure in obtaining IRB approval or the approval of other reviewing entities, including comparable foreign regulatory authorities, to conduct a clinical trial at each site;- withdrawal of clinical trial sites from our clinical trials as a result of changing standards of care or the ineligibility of a site to participate in our clinical trials;- delay or failure in recruiting and enrolling suitable trial patients to participate in a trial;- delay or failure in trial patients completing a trial or returning for post-treatment follow-up;- clinical sites and investigators deviating from a trial protocol, failing to conduct the trial in accordance with regulatory requirements, or dropping out of a trial;- inability to identify and maintain a sufficient number of trial sites, many of which may already be engaged in other clinical trial programs, including some that may be for competing product candidates with the same indication;- failure of our third-party clinical trial managers to satisfy their contractual duties or meet expected deadlines;- limitations on our or our third-party clinical trial managers' ability to access and verify clinical trial data captured at clinical trial sites through monitoring and source document verification;- delay or failure in adding new clinical trial sites;- ambiguous or negative interim results or results that are inconsistent with earlier results;- feedback from the FDA or a comparable regulatory authority outside the U.S., IRBs, or data safety monitoring boards, or results from earlier stage or concurrent preclinical studies and clinical trials, that might require modification to the protocol for the trial;- decision by the FDA or a comparable regulatory authority outside the U.S., an IRB or us, or a recommendation by a data safety monitoring board to suspend or terminate clinical trials at any time for safety issues or for any other reason;- unacceptable risk-benefit profile, unforeseen safety issues or adverse side effects or AEs associate with a product candidate;- failure of a product candidate to demonstrate any or enough of a benefit;- difficulties in manufacturing or obtaining from third parties sufficient quantities of a product candidate for use in clinical trials that meet internal and regulatory standards;- lack of adequate funding to continue the clinical trial, including the incurrence of unforeseen costs due to enrollment delays, requirements to conduct additional clinical trials or increased expenses associated with the services of our CROs and other third parties;- political developments that affect our ability to develop and obtain approval for ganaxolone or impair our license rights to develop and obtain approval for ganaxolone in other countries; or - changes in governmental regulations or administrative actions. Trial subject enrollment, which significantly impacts the timing of clinical trials, is affected by many factors including the size and nature of the subject population, the proximity of patients to clinical sites, the eligibility criteria for the trial, the design of the clinical trial, ability to obtain and maintain patient consents, risk that enrolled patients will drop out before completion, competing clinical trials and clinicians' and patients' perceptions as to the potential advantages of the product candidate being studied in relation to other available therapies, including any new drugs that may be approved or product candidates that may be studied in competing clinical trials for the indications we are investigating. Some of our clinical trials are directed at small patient populations. Patient enrollment in these trials could be particularly challenging. In the past, we have experienced delays in enrolling patients in trials directed at small patient populations. We rely on CROs and clinical trial sites to ensure the proper and timely conduct of our clinical trials, and while we have agreements governing their committed activities, we have limited influence over their actual performance. If we experience delays in the completion of any clinical trial of ganaxolone, the commercial prospects of ganaxolone may be harmed, and our ability to generate product revenue from ganaxolone, if approved, will be delayed. In addition, any delays in completing our clinical trials will increase our costs, slow down our development and approval process for ganaxolone and jeopardize our ability to commence product sales and generate revenues. In addition, many of the factors that could cause a delay in the commencement or completion of clinical trials may also ultimately lead to the denial of regulatory approval of ganaxolone.
Innovation / R&D - Risk 3
Our future success is dependent on the successful clinical development, regulatory approval and continued commercialization of ganaxolone, which is being studied in several indications and will require significant capital resources and years of additional clinical development effort.
In March 2022, we received FDA approval of ZTALMY for CDD in the U.S., and in July 2023, we received EC approval of ZTALMY for CDD in the EU, and we plan to develop ganaxolone in several other geographic regions and additional indications in oral and IV formulations. As a result, our business is dependent on our ability to successfully complete clinical development, scale-up manufacturing, obtain regulatory approval, and, if it is approved, commercialize ganaxolone in a timely manner. We cannot commercialize additional indications or formulations of ganaxolone in the U.S. in any other indication without first obtaining regulatory approval from the FDA; similarly, we cannot commercialize additional indications or formulations of ganaxolone outside of the U.S. without obtaining regulatory approval from comparable foreign regulatory authorities. Before obtaining regulatory approvals for the commercial sale of ganaxolone for a target indication, we must demonstrate with substantial evidence gathered in preclinical studies and clinical trials and, with respect to approval in the U.S., to the satisfaction of the FDA, that ganaxolone is safe and effective for use for that target indication and that the manufacturing facilities, processes and controls are adequate. Ganaxolone is metabolized extensively in animals and humans.  During the development of CDD, one major metabolite (M2) was present in plasma of humans that was not found in plasma of rats or dogs. The chemical structure of M2 has been identified.  An activity assay, dose range finding study in rats and an in vivo micronucleus with comet analysis for the detection of genotoxicity have been conducted and the results submitted to the FDA. The M17 in vitro drug-drug interaction (DDI) study was submitted in August 2023, and the M17 in vivo PK study with Brain Penetrance was submitted in December 2023. Results from additional preclinical studies are required by the FDA as post-marketing requirement(s). These include: 2-year carcinogenicity studies of ganaxolone and the major human unconjugated plasma metabolite, M2, in rats; a 26-week carcinogenicity of ganaxolone in transgenic mice; and a juvenile animal toxicity study of the major human unconjugated plasma metabolite, M2, in rats. Additional post-marketing requirements included: phase 1 renal and hepatic impairment studies and a thorough QTc study; and extractable/leachable study results on the container closure system. The Phase 1 renal impairment study commitment was submitted to the FDA in May 2022. The Phase 1 hepatic impairment study and the thorough QTc study were completed and submitted to the FDA in December 2022. The extractable/leachable study results on the container closure system were submitted to the FDA in July 2023. We plan to complete the required FDA studies within the required FDA timeframe. However, there is a risk that the studies could take longer than expected to complete or the studies may have adverse findings which may require additional investments and have the potential to materially impact the label or our ability to market ZTALMY. In connection with the EC approval of ZTALMY for CDD, we have several post-marketing authorization measures. The clinical study report (CSR) for Study 1042-HME-1001 was submitted in September 2023. The ganaxolone Steady-State Metabolite Study report, the final Study 1042-CDD-3001 CSR with the open-label trial completion, the M17 in vitro DDI study, and the M17 in vivo PK study with Brain Penetrance were submitted in December 2023. The remaining post-marketing authorization measures include: participating in Study LLF001 (CANDID observational study) and providing annual updates; participating in the CDD-IPR-CDD-0 CDKL5 Deficiency Disorder International Patient Registry and providing six monthly updates; conducting a toxicity study with a sediment dwelling organism and an updated Environmental Risk Assessment; developing a sodium benzoate-free suspension and assessing the compatibility of the oral suspension with food, drinks, enteral tubes, shake time and stand time; conducting a 26-Week Oral Gavage Toxicity Study of M2; conducting a M2 Embryo-fetal Development study; and conducting a 26-week Oral Gavage Carcinogenicity Study of ganaxolone and M2. The EMA also requested weight of evidence (WoE) assessments to evaluate the need for a 2-year carcinogenicity study in rats with ganaxolone, a 2-year carcinogenicity study in rats with M2, and a juvenile toxicity study with M2. While we expect to be able complete the remaining required studies within the requested EMA timeframe, there is a risk that the studies could take longer or the studies may have adverse findings which may require additional investments and have the potential to materially impact the label or our ability to marker ZTALMY. We are conducting the RAISE trial in RSE, which is a life-threatening medical condition involving prolonged seizure activity in seriously ill patients.?The RAISE trial requires expertise in electroencephalogram (EEG) interpretation, which may be subject to variability, and the FDA or foreign regulatory authorities could find the data generated?in this trial inadequate or difficult to interpret, which could delay, limit or prevent regulatory approval for this indication. There is also a risk that the Phase 3 clinical trial of ganaxolone in RAISE will generate data that is not sufficient to support regulatory approvals for this indication. Additionally, the clinical trial endpoints of the RAISE trial are based on treatment outcomes, including initiation of anesthesia for treatment of RSE. Practice variability in the use of anesthesia for SE treatment could adversely impact the ability to show a treatment effect with ganaxolone. Even if the RAISE trial shows that ganaxolone is effective, there is a risk that the FDA will require more safety data generated with IV ganaxolone at the doses given to patients in this trial before approving an NDA or require post approval commitments to generate additional safety data as a condition of approval ganaxolone for use in RSE. In August 2021, we reported data from an open-label, single-arm Phase 2 trial evaluating the safety and effectiveness of adjunctive oral ganaxolone treatment in 23 patients with TSC. The primary endpoint showed a median 16.6% reduction in 28-day frequency of TSC-associated seizures relative to the four-week baseline period. In addition, data from the Phase 2 TSC trial suggested that in patients on concomitant Epidiolex, early elevation of ganaxolone blood levels occurred and appeared to be linked to greater somnolence. A formal Phase 1 drug-drug interaction trial was completed, demonstrating a lack of significant interaction between ganaxolone and Epidiolex. Additionally, the titration schedule for all subjects in the Phase 3 TSC trial has been adjusted to maximize tolerability. Undesirable side effects could delay clinical trials and result in the FDA or other regulatory authorities requiring us to conduct additional studies or trials for our product candidate either prior or post-approval, such as additional drug-drug interaction studies or safety or efficacy studies, or it may object to elements of our clinical development program. There is also a risk that the Phase 3 clinical trial of ganaxolone in TSC will generate data that is not sufficient to support regulatory approvals for this indication. Even if ganaxolone were to obtain approval from the FDA and comparable foreign regulatory authorities for TSC, RSE, or any other indication under development, any approval might contain significant limitations, such as restrictions as to specified age groups, warnings, precautions or contraindications, or may be subject to burdensome post-approval trial or risk management requirements. If we are unable to obtain regulatory approval for ganaxolone in these additional indications in one or more jurisdictions, or any approval contains significant limitations, we may not be able to obtain sufficient funding or generate sufficient revenue to continue the development of any other indications for ganaxolone or any other product candidate that we may in-license, develop or acquire in the future. Furthermore, even with regulatory approval for ganaxolone, we will still need to develop a commercial organization, establish commercially viable pricing and obtain adequate reimbursement from third-party and government payers. If we are unable to successfully commercialize ganaxolone, we may not be able to earn sufficient revenue to continue our business.
Innovation / R&D - Risk 4
We are conducting clinical development activities for ganaxolone across multiple indications, and such clinical development activities may not produce favorable results, which could adversely impact our ability to achieve regulatory approval for ganaxolone in such indications.
We are conducting clinical development activities for ganaxolone across multiple indications. Success in preclinical studies and early clinical trials in one indication does not ensure that later clinical trials in such indication or other indications will generate adequate data to demonstrate the efficacy and safety of ganaxolone in one or more indications. Furthermore, unfavorable clinical trial results in one ganaxolone indication may adversely impact our ability to continue to develop such indication or other ganaxolone indications. A number of companies in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries, including those with greater resources and experience, have suffered significant setbacks in clinical trials, even after seeing promising results in earlier studies and clinical trials. For example, while ganaxolone showed statistical separation from placebo in a Phase 2 clinical trial in adjunctive treatment of adults with focal onset seizures, it failed to show a similar statistically significant separation in a Phase 3 clinical trial for the same indication. As a result, we discontinued our program in adult focal onset seizures and began to focus our efforts on advancing ganaxolone in RSE and pediatric orphan genetic epilepsy indications. We do not know whether the clinical trials we may conduct will demonstrate adequate efficacy and safety to result in regulatory approval to market ganaxolone in any particular jurisdiction or indication. If clinical trials underway or conducted in the future do not produce favorable results, our ability to achieve regulatory approval for ganaxolone in those indications may be adversely impacted. Further, even if we believe the data collected from our clinical trials of ganaxolone are promising, these data may not be sufficient to support approval by the FDA or foreign regulatory authorities. Pre-clinical and clinical data can be interpreted in different ways. Accordingly, the FDA or foreign regulatory authorities could interpret these data in different ways from us, which could delay, limit or prevent regulatory approval.
Innovation / R&D - Risk 5
Ganaxolone may cause undesirable side effects or have other properties, such as abuse potential, that could delay or prevent its regulatory approval in indications under clinical development, limit the commercial profile of an approved label, or result in significant negative consequences following any marketing approval.
Undesirable side effects caused by ganaxolone could cause us, an institutional review board (IRB), or regulatory authorities to interrupt, delay or halt clinical trials and could result in a restrictive label or the delay or denial of regulatory approval by the FDA or other comparable foreign regulatory authority. As of October 2023, over 2,200 individuals have received ganaxolone for durations from one day to more than two years at doses of 50 to 2,000 mg/day. The majority of AEs were non-serious and resolved upon discontinuation of therapy. The most common side effects with oral ganaxolone relate to sedation or somnolence. Somnolence and sedation appeared early during treatment and were generally dose related. In the oral ganaxolone safety database there are no trends of medically important changes in blood chemistry, vital signs, liver function, renal function or cardiovascular parameters in adult or pediatric populations. To date, over 80 patients have received the IV formulation of ganaxolone in our clinical trials or under emergency INDs. Although ganaxolone has generally been well-tolerated by patients in our clinical trials to date, in some cases there were side effects, and some of the side effects were severe. The most frequent side effects were dizziness, fatigue and somnolence (or drowsiness). More side effects of the CNS were categorized as severe as compared to side effects of other body systems. Antiepileptic drugs, including ganaxolone, increase the risk of suicidal thoughts or behavior. In addition, as with most antiepileptic drugs, ganaxolone should be withdrawn gradually to minimize the risk of increased seizure frequency and status epilepticus. There were no deaths reported in the double-blind phase of the Marigold Trial. Three deaths globally have occurred during the open label extension phase of the trial, two of which were assessed by the investigators as unrelated to trial treatment. The third death was assessed by the investigator as probably related to trial medication. Given the severity of CDD and its medical complications, SAEs or deaths may occur which, in the absence of a control group, make determination of relatedness to treatment difficult. If these side effects are reported in future clinical trials, or if other safety or toxicity issues are reported in our future clinical trials, we may not receive approval to market ganaxolone or approval may be limited, which could prevent us from ever generating material revenue or achieving profitability. Furthermore, although we are currently developing ganaxolone for multiple indications, negative safety findings in any one indication could force us to delay or discontinue development in other indications. Results of our clinical trials could reveal an unacceptably high severity and prevalence of side effects. In such an event, our clinical trials could be suspended or terminated, and the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities could order us to cease further development, or deny approval, of ganaxolone for any or all targeted indications. Drug-related side effects could affect trial subject recruitment or the ability of enrolled patients to complete our future clinical trials and may result in potential product liability claims. Additionally, in our clinical trials ganaxolone is added to the standard of care, which includes many antiseizure medications. Drug interactions with any of the medications could result in safety concerns or reduce the population in which ganaxolone may be used. For example, in our recently completed clinical trial of ganaxolone in TSC, we reported data that suggested that in patients on concomitant Epidiolex, early elevation of ganaxolone blood levels occurred and appeared to be linked to greater somnolence. A formal Phase 1 drug-drug interaction trial was completed, demonstrating a lack of significant interaction between ganaxolone and Epidiolex. Additionally, the titration schedule for all subjects in the Phase 3 TSC trial has been adjusted to maximize tolerability. Undesirable side effects could delay clinical trials and result in the FDA or other regulatory authorities requiring us to conduct additional studies or trials for our product candidate either prior to or post-approval, such as additional drug-drug interaction studies or safety or efficacy studies or trials, or it may object to elements of our clinical development program. Ganaxolone is metabolized extensively in animals and humans.  During the development of CDD, one major metabolite (M2) was present in plasma of humans that was not found in plasma of rats or dogs. The chemical structure of M2 has been identified.  An activity assay, dose range finding study in rats and an in vivo micronucleus with comet analysis for the detection of genotoxicity have been conducted and the results submitted to the FDA. The M17 in vitro drug-drug interaction (DDI) study was submitted in August 2023, and the M17 in vivo PK study with Brain Penetrance was submitted in December 2023. Results from additional preclinical studies are required by the FDA as post-marketing requirement(s). These include: 2-year carcinogenicity studies of ganaxolone and the major human unconjugated plasma metabolite, M2, in rats; a 26-week carcinogenicity of ganaxolone in transgenic mice; and a juvenile animal toxicity study of the major human unconjugated plasma metabolite, M2, in rats. Additional post-marketing requirements include: phase 1 renal and hepatic impairment studies and a thorough QTc study; and extractable/leachable study results on the container closure system. The Phase 1 renal impairment study commitment was submitted to the FDA in May 2022. The Phase 1 hepatic impairment study and the thorough QTc study were completed and submitted to the FDA in December 2022. The extractable/leachable study results on the container closure system were submitted to the FDA in July 2023. We plan to complete the required FDA studies within the required FDA timeframe. However, there is a risk that the studies could take longer than expected to complete or the studies may have adverse findings which may require additional investments and have the potential to materially impact the label or our ability to market ZTALMY. In connection with the EC approval of ZTALMY for CDD, we have several post-marketing authorization measures. The clinical study report (CSR) for Study 1042-HME-1001 was submitted in September 2023. The ganaxolone Steady-State Metabolite Study report, the final Study 1042-CDD-3001 CSR with the open-label trial completion, the M17 in vitro DDI study and the M17 in vivo PK study with Brain Penetrance were submitted in December 2023. The remaining post-marketing authorization measures include: participating in Study LLF001 (CANDID observational study) and providing annual updates; participating in the CDD-IPR-CDD-0 CDKL5 Deficiency Disorder International Patient Registry and providing six monthly updates; conducting a toxicity study with a sediment dwelling organism and an updated Environmental Risk Assessment; developing a sodium benzoate-free suspension and assessing the compatibility of the oral suspension with food, drinks, enteral tubes, shake time and stand time; conducting a 26-Week Oral Gavage Toxicity Study of M2; conducting a M2 Embryo-fetal Development study; and conducting a 26-week Oral Gavage Carcinogenicity Study of ganaxolone and M2. The EMA also requested weight of evidence (WoE) assessments to evaluate the need for a 2-year carcinogenicity study in rats with ganaxolone, a 2-year carcinogenicity study in rats with M2, and a juvenile toxicity study with M2. While we expect to be able complete the remaining required studies within the requested EMA timeframe, there is a risk that the studies could take longer than expected to complete or the studies may have adverse findings which may require additional investments and have the potential to materially impact the label or our ability to market ZTALMY. If we or others identify undesirable side effects caused by ganaxolone after receiving marketing approval, a number of potentially significant negative consequences could result, including: - we may be forced to suspend marketing of ganaxolone;- regulatory authorities may withdraw their approvals of ganaxolone;- regulatory authorities may require additional warnings on the label that could diminish the usage or otherwise limit the commercial success of ganaxolone;- we may be required to conduct post-marketing trials;- we may be required to develop a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for ganaxolone or if a REMS is already in place, to incorporate additional requirements under the REMS, and comparable regulatory authorities outside the U.S. may require similar risk management strategies;- we could be sued and held liable for harm caused to patients; and - our reputation may suffer. Any of these events could prevent us from achieving or maintaining market acceptance of ganaxolone. The FDA recommended scheduling of ganaxolone as a controlled substance based on the abuse liability assessment conducted for the NDA submission. As such, the U.S. DEA reviewed ganaxolone and following the review classified ganaxolone as a Schedule V drug. As a controlled substance, the manufacture, import, export, distribution, storage, sale, dispensing, prescribing, and use will be subject to a significant degree of additional regulation by the DEA as well as state regulatory authorities. The restrictive nature of these regulations could also limit commercialization and market acceptance of ganaxolone.
Innovation / R&D - Risk 6
We intend to expend our limited resources to pursue ganaxolone and may fail to capitalize on other technologies or any other future product candidates that may be more profitable or for which there may be a greater likelihood of success.
Because we have limited financial and managerial resources, we are focusing on the continued commercialization of ZTALMY and on research programs relating to ganaxolone, which concentrates the risk of product failure in the event ganaxolone proves to be ineffective or inadequate for clinical development or commercialization. As a result, we may forego or delay pursuit of opportunities for other technologies or product candidates that later could prove to have greater commercial potential. We may be unable to capitalize on viable commercial products or profitable market opportunities as a result of our resource allocation decisions. Our spending on proprietary research and development programs relating to ganaxolone may not yield any commercially viable products. If we do not accurately evaluate the commercial potential or target market for ganaxolone, we may relinquish valuable rights to ganaxolone through collaboration, licensing or other commercial arrangements in cases in which it would have been more advantageous for us to retain sole development and commercialization rights to ganaxolone.
Innovation / R&D - Risk 7
If we are unable to differentiate ZTALMY from current and future products or existing methods of treatments, our ability to successfully commercialize ZTALMY would be adversely affected.
We initially intend to commercialize ZTALMY for the treatment of CDD and seek FDA approval for ganaxolone with respect to additional indications. Ganaxolone is the first product to receive regulatory approval for reduction of seizures specifically in patients with CDD.  Patients with CDD are generally on a number of anti-epileptic medications and physicians' determining whether to prescribe ZTALMY to their CDD patients may add ZTALMY to existing regimens for patients or make changes in their patients' current medications to introduce ZTALMY. If we are unable to achieve significant differentiation for ZTALMY against these other products and treatments or future treatments, including on the basis of efficacy, safety and tolerability profile, reliability, convenience of administration, price and reimbursement, the opportunity for ZTALMY to be commercialized successfully would be adversely affected.
Trade Secrets8 | 12.9%
Trade Secrets - Risk 1
Intellectual property rights do not necessarily address all potential threats to our competitive advantage.
The degree of future protection afforded by our intellectual property rights is uncertain because intellectual property rights have limitations, and may not adequately protect our business, or permit us to maintain our competitive advantage. The following examples are illustrative: - others may be able to make compounds or ganaxolone formulations that are similar to our product candidates but that are not covered by the claims of the patents that we own or control;- we or any strategic partners might not have been the first to make the inventions covered by the issued patents or pending patent applications that we own or control;- we might not have been the first to file patent applications covering certain of our inventions;- others may independently develop similar or alternative technologies or duplicate any of our technologies without infringing our intellectual property rights;- it is possible that our pending patent applications will not lead to issued patents;- issued patents that we own or control may not provide us with any competitive advantages, or may be held invalid or unenforceable as a result of legal challenges;- our competitors might conduct research and development activities in the U.S. and other countries that provide a safe harbor from patent infringement claims for certain research and development activities, as well as in countries where we do not have patent rights and then use the information learned from such activities to develop competitive products for sale in our major commercial markets;- we may not develop additional proprietary technologies that are patentable; and - the patents of others may have an adverse effect on our business.
Trade Secrets - Risk 2
If we are unable to protect our intellectual property rights or if our intellectual property rights are inadequate for our technology and product candidates, our competitive position could be harmed.
Our continued commercial success will depend in large part on our ability to obtain and maintain patent and other intellectual property protection in the U.S. and other countries with respect to our technology and products. We rely on trade secret, patent, copyright and trademark laws, and confidentiality, licensing and other agreements with employees and third parties, all of which offer only limited protection. We seek to protect our proprietary position by filing and prosecuting patent applications in the U.S. and abroad related to our novel technologies and products that are important to our business. The patent positions of biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies generally are highly uncertain, involve complex legal and factual questions and have in recent years been the subject of much litigation. As a result, the issuance, scope, validity, enforceability and commercial value of our patents, including those patent rights licensed to us by third parties, are highly uncertain. The steps we or our licensors have taken to protect our proprietary rights may not be adequate to preclude misappropriation of our proprietary information or infringement of our intellectual property rights, both inside and outside the U.S. Further, the examination process may require us or our licensors to narrow the claims for our pending patent applications, which may limit the scope of patent protection that may be obtained if these applications issue. The rights already granted under any of our currently issued patents or those licensed to us and those that may be granted under future issued patents may not provide us with the protection or competitive advantages we are seeking. If we or our licensors are unable to obtain and maintain patent protection for our technology and products, or if the scope of the patent protection obtained is not sufficient, our competitors could develop and commercialize technology and products similar or superior to ours, and our ability to successfully commercialize our technology and products may be adversely affected. It is also possible that we or our licensors will fail to identify patentable aspects of inventions made in the course of our development and commercialization activities before it is too late to obtain patent protection on them. With respect to patent rights, the ganaxolone compound and its original synthesis were published in the early 1990s and is therefore off patent, we do not own or license patent rights on the ganaxolone compound. We seek patent protection in the U.S. and internationally for synthetic methods for making ganaxolone, ganaxolone nanoparticles, which are used in certain oral solid, oral liquid, and IV dose formulations, other injectable and oral ganaxolone formulations, and methods of treatment using ganaxolone. We do not know whether any of our granted or issued patents will, or if any of our pending patent applications will grant as patents that will effectively prevent others from commercializing competitive technologies and products. There is a risk that others, including companies that make generic pharmaceuticals, may develop ganaxolone for the same as similar uses as us, and that our patents will not effectively prevent them from commercializing their ganaxolone products. Publications of discoveries in the scientific literature often lag behind the actual discoveries, and patent applications in the U.S. and other jurisdictions are typically not published until 18 months after filing or in some cases not at all, until they are issued as a patent. Therefore, we cannot be certain that we or our licensors were the first to make the inventions claimed in our owned or licensed patents or pending patent applications, or that we or our licensors were the first to file for patent protection of such inventions. Our pending applications cannot be enforced against third parties practicing the technology claimed in such applications unless and until a patent issues from such applications. Because the issuance of a patent is not conclusive as to its inventorship, scope, validity or enforceability, issued patents that we own or have licensed from third parties may be challenged in the courts or patent offices in the U.S. and abroad. Such challenges may result in the loss of patent protection, the narrowing of claims in such patents or the invalidity or unenforceability of such patents, which could limit our ability to stop others from using or commercializing similar or identical technology and products, or limit the duration of the patent protection for our technology and products. Protecting against the unauthorized use of our or our licensors' patented technology, trademarks and other intellectual property rights is expensive, difficult and may in some cases not be possible. In some cases, it may be difficult or impossible to detect third-party infringement or misappropriation of our intellectual property rights, even in relation to issued patent claims, and proving any such infringement may be even more difficult. Competitors may infringe our patents or misappropriate or otherwise violate our intellectual property rights. To counter infringement or unauthorized use, litigation may be necessary in the future to enforce or defend our intellectual property rights, to protect our trade secrets or to determine the validity and scope of our own intellectual property rights or the proprietary rights of others. Also, third parties may initiate legal proceedings against us to challenge the validity or scope of intellectual property rights we own or control. These proceedings can be expensive and time consuming. Many of our current and potential competitors have the ability to dedicate substantially greater resources to defend their intellectual property rights than we can. Accordingly, despite our efforts, we may not be able to prevent third parties from infringing upon or misappropriating our intellectual property. Litigation could result in substantial costs and diversion of management resources, which could harm our business and financial results. In addition, in an infringement proceeding, a court may decide that a patent owned or controlled by us is invalid or unenforceable, or may refuse to stop the other party from using the technology at issue on the grounds that our patents do not cover the technology in question. An adverse result in any litigation proceeding could put one or more of our patents at risk of being invalidated, held unenforceable or interpreted narrowly. Furthermore, because of the substantial amount of discovery required in connection with intellectual property litigation, there is a risk that some of our confidential information could be compromised by disclosure during this type of litigation. There could also be public announcements of the results of hearings, motions or other interim proceedings or developments. If securities analysts or investors perceive these results to be negative, it could have a material adverse effect on the price of shares of our common stock.
Trade Secrets - Risk 3
Third parties, such as Ovid Therapeutics, Inc., may initiate legal proceedings alleging that we are infringing their intellectual property rights, the outcome of which would be uncertain and could harm our business.
Our commercial success depends upon our ability to develop, manufacture, market and sell our products and product candidates, all of which contain ganaxolone, and to use our related technologies. We may become party to, or threatened with, adversarial proceedings or litigation regarding intellectual property rights with respect to one or more of our products, including interference or derivation proceedings before the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO). Third parties may assert infringement claims against us based on existing patents or patents that may be granted in the future. If we are found to infringe a third party's intellectual property rights, we could be required to obtain a license from such third party to continue commercializing one or more of our products. However, we may not be able to obtain any required license on commercially reasonable terms or at all. Under certain circumstances, we could be forced, including by court order, to cease commercializing one or more of our products. In addition, in any such proceeding or litigation, we could be found liable for monetary damages. A finding of infringement could prevent us from commercializing one or more of our products or force us to cease some of our business operations, which could materially harm our business. Any claims by third parties that we have misappropriated their confidential information or trade secrets could have a similar negative impact on our business. While our product candidates are in preclinical studies and clinical trials, we believe that the use of our product candidates in these preclinical studies and clinical trials falls within the scope of the exemptions provided by 35 U.S.C. Section 271(e) in the U.S., which exempts from patent infringement liability activities reasonably related to the development and submission of information to the FDA (Federal Development Patent Infringement Exemption). As our product candidates progress toward commercialization, the possibility of a patent infringement claim against us increases. While ganaxolone itself is off patent, we attempt to ensure that our product candidates and the methods we employ to manufacture ganaxolone do not infringe other parties' patents and other proprietary rights. There can be no assurance they do not, however, and competitors or other parties may assert that we infringe their proprietary rights in any event. On July 26, 2022, the USPTO issued U.S. Patent No. 11,395,817 (Ovid ‘817 Patent) to Ovid Therapeutics, Inc. (Ovid) with claims that encompass our product candidate for the treatment of SE. On March 15, 2023, we filed a petition seeking post-grant review (PGR) of the Ovid ‘817 Patent with the USPTO Patent Trial and Appeal Board (PTAB). Our petition for PGR argues that the claims of the Ovid ‘817 Patent are unpatentable on multiple grounds. Ovid filed a preliminary response to our petition on June 20, 2023. In Ovid's reply to our request for PGR, Ovid disclaimed claims 1-21, 23 and 24 of the Ovid ‘817 Patent, which has the effect of erasing these claims from the patent, irrespective of the outcome of the PGR. On August 17, 2023, the PTAB issued a decision granting institution of our petition seeking PGR of the Ovid ‘817 Patent. In instituting the PGR, the PTAB stated that it was more likely than not that we would be able to invalidate the remaining claims (22 and 25-31) of the Ovid ‘817 Patent during the proceeding. The decision to institute is not a final decision on the patentability of the claims. The final decision will be based on the full record developed during the proceeding. The PGR process is ongoing, and oral arguments for the proceeding are currently scheduled for May 22, 2024. If we do not prevail in the PGR proceeding, the decision can be appealed to the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. If an appeal is not successful, our ability to challenge the Ovid ‘817 Patent in court will be limited in certain respects. On January 9, 2024, the USPTO issued a Notice of Allowance in Ovid's patent application U.S. 18/325,548 (Ovid ‘548 application) with claims that encompass our product candidate for the treatment of SE. The Ovid ‘548 application issued in February, 2024 as U.S. Patent No. 11,903,930 (Ovid ‘930 Patent). We are evaluating the Ovid'930 Patent. ? The Ovid ‘817 Patent and the Ovid ‘548 Patent claims cover the use of ganaxolone in the treatment of SE and do not cover or impact our marketing and sales of ZTALMY for the treatment of seizures associated with CDD. If we prevail in the PGR, the Ovid ‘817 Patent will not be enforceable against us. On September 27, 2023, the USPTO issued a Notice of Allowance in an Ovid patent application with claims that encompass our product candidate for the treatment of LGS. The patent issued on November 7, 2023. The claims in this Ovid LGS patent application cover the use of ganaxolone for the treatment of LGS and do not cover or impact the use of ganaxolone in any other indication. Ovid may file a lawsuit against us alleging infringement of its patents. Any such proceeding, in the PTAB or courts, regardless of their outcome, would likely result in the expenditure of significant financial resources and the diversion of management's time and resources. In addition, any such proceeding may cause negative publicity, adversely impact patients, and we may be prohibited from marketing or selling ganaxolone for SE, RSE and LGS during such proceedings or if we are not successful in such proceedings. If Ovid does decide to bring an infringement lawsuit, we do not expect that it will be filed before a commercial launch of ganaxolone for SE, RSE or LGS based upon the "safe harbor" provisions of the Hatch-Waxman Act. We may need to acquire or obtain a license to certain Ovid patents to market or sell ganaxolone for SE, RSE or LGS, which may not be available on commercially acceptable terms or at all. If we are not able to acquire certain Ovid patents or negotiate a license on acceptable terms, and if our product is determined to infringe Ovid's patents and such patents are determined to be valid, then we may be forced to pay Ovid royalties, damages and costs, or we may be prevented from commercializing ganaxolone for SE, RSE and LGS altogether, which would have a material adverse impact on our business.
Trade Secrets - Risk 4
We may not be able to protect our intellectual property rights throughout the world.
Filing, prosecuting and defending patents on our product candidates and any future product candidates throughout the world would be prohibitively expensive, and our or our licensors' intellectual property rights in some countries outside the U.S. can be less extensive than those in the U.S. In addition, the laws and practices of some foreign countries, particularly those relating to pharmaceuticals, do not protect intellectual property rights to the same extent as federal and state laws in the U.S. For example, novel formulations and methods of medical treatment and manufacturing processes may not be patentable in certain jurisdictions, and the requirements for patentability may differ in certain countries, particularly developing countries. Furthermore, generic drug manufacturers or other competitors may challenge the scope, validity or enforceability of our patents, requiring us to engage in complex, lengthy and costly litigation or other proceedings. Generic drug manufacturers may develop, seek approval for, and launch generic versions of our products. Many countries, including EU countries, India, Japan and China, have compulsory licensing laws under which a patent owner may be compelled under certain circumstances to grant licenses to third parties. In those countries, we may have limited remedies if patents are infringed or if we are compelled to grant a license to a third party, which could materially diminish the value of our patents. This could limit our potential revenue opportunities. Accordingly, our efforts to enforce intellectual property rights around the world may be inadequate to obtain a significant commercial advantage from our intellectual property. We may not be able to prevent third parties from practicing our inventions in all countries outside the U.S., or from selling or importing products made using our inventions into or within the U.S. or other jurisdictions. Competitors may use our technologies in jurisdictions where we have not obtained patent protection to develop their own products, and may export otherwise infringing products to territories where we have patent protection, but where enforcement is not as strong as that in the U.S. These products may compete with our products in jurisdictions where we do not have any issued patents and our patent claims or other intellectual property rights may not be effective or sufficient to prevent them from competing with us in these jurisdictions. Many companies have encountered significant problems in protecting and defending intellectual property rights in certain foreign jurisdictions. Proceedings to enforce our patent rights in foreign jurisdictions could result in substantial cost and divert our efforts and attention from other aspects of our business, could put our patents at risk of being invalidated or interpreted narrowly and our patent applications at risk of not issuing and could provoke third parties to assert claims against us. We may not prevail in any lawsuits that we initiate and the damages or other remedies awarded, if any, may not be commercially meaningful.
Trade Secrets - Risk 5
Patent terms may be inadequate to protect our competitive position on our products for an adequate amount of time.
Given the amount of time required for the development, testing and regulatory review of new product candidates, such as our product candidates, patents protecting such candidates might expire before or shortly after such candidates are commercialized. For example, certain patents licensed to us by CyDex that relate to Captisol, which is used in some of our product candidates, have expired, and sulfobutylether beta-cyclodextrin compounds that are similar to CyDex's Captisol are available from other suppliers. It is possible that others may seek to develop ganaxolone formulations using sulfobutylether beta-cyclodextrin compounds obtained from such other suppliers. We expect to seek extensions of patent terms in the U.S. and, if available, in other countries where we are prosecuting patents. In the U.S., the Drug Price Competition and Patent Term Restoration Act of 1984 permits under certain circumstances a patent term extension of up to five years beyond the normal expiration of a patent. However, the applicable authorities, including the FDA and the USPTO in the U.S., and any analogous regulatory authority in other countries, may not agree with our assessment of whether such extensions are available, and may refuse to grant extensions to our patents, or may grant more limited extensions than we request. If this occurs, our competitors may be able to take advantage of our investment in development and clinical trials by referencing our clinical and preclinical data and launch their product earlier than might otherwise be the case. For example, we have a pending patent term extension application of a granted U.S. patent that covers ZTALMY. This application requests an extension of five (5) years, which, if the full extension is granted, this U.S. patent would be extended to November 28, 2031. It is possible that we will not obtain patent term extension for this U.S. patent, or if we obtain such an extension, it may be for a shorter period than we had sought.
Trade Secrets - Risk 6
Changes in patent laws could increase the uncertainties and costs surrounding the prosecution of our patent applications and the enforcement or defense of our issued patents.
As is the case with other pharmaceutical companies, our success is heavily dependent on intellectual property, particularly patents. Obtaining and enforcing patents in the pharmaceutical industry involves technological and legal complexity, and obtaining and enforcing pharmaceutical patents is costly, time-consuming, and inherently uncertain. Changes in either the patent laws or interpretation of the patent laws in the U.S. and other countries may diminish the value of our patents or narrow the scope of our patent protection. For example, the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled on several patent cases in recent years, either narrowing the scope of patent protection available in certain circumstances or weakening the rights of patent owners in certain situations. In addition to increasing uncertainty with regard to our ability to obtain patents in the future, this combination of events has created uncertainty with respect to the value of patents once obtained. Depending on decisions by Congress, the federal courts, and the USPTO, the laws and regulations governing patents could change in unpredictable ways that would weaken our ability to obtain new patents or to enforce existing patents and patents we may obtain in the future. Recent patent reform legislation could increase the uncertainties and costs surrounding the prosecution of our patent applications and the enforcement or defense of our issued patents. In addition, the Leahy-Smith America Invents Act (Leahy-Smith Act) includes a number of provisions that affect the way patent applications are prosecuted and may also affect patent litigation. In particular, under the Leahy-Smith Act, the U.S. transitioned to a "first to file" system in which the first inventor to file a patent application is entitled to the patent. Third parties are allowed to submit prior art before the issuance of a patent by the USPTO and may become involved in derivation, reexamination, inter-partes review or post-grant review proceedings challenging our patent rights or the patent rights of our licensors. An adverse determination in any such submission, proceeding or litigation could reduce the scope of, or invalidate patent rights, which could adversely affect our competitive position.
Trade Secrets - Risk 7
Obtaining and maintaining our patent protection depends on compliance with various procedural, document submissions, fee payment and other requirements imposed by governmental patent agencies, and our patent protection could be reduced or eliminated for non-compliance with these requirements.
Periodic maintenance fees on any issued patent are due to be paid to the USPTO and foreign patent agencies in several stages over the lifetime of the patent. The USPTO and various foreign governmental patent agencies require compliance with a number of procedural, documentary, fee payment and other similar provisions during the patent application process. While an inadvertent lapse can in many cases be cured by payment of a late fee or by other means in accordance with the applicable rules, there are situations in which noncompliance can result in abandonment or lapse of the patent or patent application, resulting in partial or complete loss of patent rights in the relevant jurisdiction. Non-compliance events that could result in abandonment or lapse of a patent or patent application include, but are not limited to, failure to respond to official actions within prescribed time limits, non-payment of fees and failure to properly legalize and submit formal documents. If we or our licensors fail to maintain the patents and patent applications covering our product candidates, our competitive position would be adversely affected.
Trade Secrets - Risk 8
We may be subject to claims by third parties asserting that we have misappropriated their intellectual property, or claiming ownership of what we regard as our own intellectual property.
Some of our employees were previously employed at universities or at other biotechnology or pharmaceutical companies, including our competitors or potential competitors. Some of these employees, including each member of our senior management, executed proprietary rights, non-disclosure and non-competition agreements, or similar agreements, in connection with such previous employment. Although we try to ensure that our employees do not use the proprietary information or know-how of others in their work for us, we may be subject to claims that we or these employees have used or disclosed intellectual property, including trade secrets or other proprietary information, of any such third party. Litigation may be necessary to defend against such claims. If we fail in defending any such claims, in addition to paying monetary damages, we may lose valuable intellectual property rights or personnel or sustain damages. Such intellectual property rights could be awarded to a third party, and we could be required to obtain a license from such third party to commercialize our technology or products. Such a license may not be available on commercially reasonable terms or at all. Even if we are successful in defending against such claims, litigation could result in substantial costs and be a distraction to management.
Technology1 | 1.6%
Technology - Risk 1
Our business and operations would suffer in the event of computer system failures, cyberattacks or a deficiency in our cybersecurity or those of any business partners.
We extensively rely upon sophisticated IT systems (including cloud services) to operate our business. We produce, collect, process, store and transmit large amounts of confidential information (including de-identified or pseudonymized information of patients enrolled in our clinical trials and intellectual property), and we deploy and operate an array of technical and procedural controls to maintain the confidentiality, integrity and availability of such confidential information. Despite the implementation of security measures, our systems and infrastructure, and those of our CROs and other third parties on which we rely, are vulnerable to, among other things, computer viruses, unauthorized access, natural disasters, fire, terrorism, war, telecommunication and electrical failures, cyberattacks or cyber-intrusions over the Internet, and loss of funds or information from phishing or other fraudulent schemes. The risk of a cybersecurity incident or network disruption, particularly through cyber-attacks or cyber intrusion, including by computer hackers, foreign governments, and cyber terrorists, has generally increased as the number, intensity and sophistication of attempted attacks and intrusions from around the world have increased. Given the evolving nature of cybersecurity threats and safeguards, there can be no assurance that any preventive, protective, or remedial measures are or will be adequate to address threats that arise. However, even security measures that are appropriate, reasonable, and/or in accordance with applicable legal requirements may not be able to fully protect our systems or infrastructure and the data contained therein, or our data that is contained in our subsidiaries' or third parties' systems. Additionally, while we have implemented security measures that we believe are appropriate, a regulator could deem our security measures not to be appropriate given the lack of prescriptive measures in certain data protection laws. A cybersecurity incident or network disruption could cause interruption of our operations or loss of our funds and have a negative financial consequence on our business. If a cybersecurity incident or network disruption were to occur and cause interruptions in our operations, it could result in a material disruption of our drug development programs. For example, the loss of data relating to completed, ongoing, or planned clinical trials could result in delays in our regulatory approval efforts and cause us to incur significant additional costs to recover or reproduce the data. To the extent that a cybersecurity incident or network disruption results in a loss of or damage to our data or applications, misappropriation of funds to unintended recipients, or inappropriate disclosure of confidential, proprietary, or personal information, we could incur material legal claims and liabilities, experience damage to our reputation, and the further development of ganaxolone could be delayed. Additionally, the cost and operational consequences of responding to cybersecurity incidents and implementing remediation measures may be significant. Moreover, increased regulation of data protection practices, including self-regulation and industry standards, changes in existing laws and regulations, enactment of new laws and regulations, increased enforcement activity, and changes in interpretation of laws, could increase our cost of compliance and operation, limit our ability to grow our business or otherwise harm our business. Any associated claims, inquiries, investigations, or other government actions could lead to unfavorable outcomes that have a material impact on our business including through significant penalties or fines, monetary judgments or settlements, including criminal and civil liability for us and our officers and directors, increased compliance costs, delays or impediments in the development of new products, negative publicity, increased operating costs, diversion of management time and attention, or other remedies that harm our business, including orders that we modify or cease existing business practices. In addition, significant disruptions of our third party vendors' and/or service providers' security systems or infrastructure, or other similar cybersecurity incidents, could adversely affect our business operations and/or result in the loss, misappropriation, and/or unauthorized access, use or disclosure of, or the prevention of access to, regulated confidential or personal information, which could harm our business. We maintain insurance policies to cover certain losses relating to our information technology systems and data. However, there may be exceptions to our insurance coverage such that our insurance policies may not cover some or all aspects of a cybersecurity incident. Even where an incident is covered by our insurance, the insurance limits may not cover the costs of complete remediation and redress that we may be faced with in the wake of a cybersecurity incident. The successful assertion of one or more large claims against us that exceeds our available insurance coverage, or results in changes to our insurance policies (including premium increases or the imposition of large deductible or co-insurance requirements), could have an adverse effect on our business. In addition, we cannot be sure that our existing insurance coverage and coverage for errors and omissions will continue to be available on acceptable terms or that our insurers will not deny coverage as to any future claim.
Legal & Regulatory
Total Risks: 16/62 (26%)Above Sector Average
Regulation10 | 16.1%
Regulation - Risk 1
If the FDA, EC or other applicable regulatory authorities approve generic or other products that compete with any of our products or product candidates, it could reduce our sales of those products or product candidates.
In the U.S., after an NDA is approved, the product generally becomes a "listed drug" which can, in turn, be relied upon by potential competitors in support of approval of an ANDA. The Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, FDA regulations and other applicable regulations and policies provide incentives to manufacturers to create generic, non-infringing versions of a drug to facilitate the approval of an ANDA. These manufacturers might show that their product has the same active ingredients, dosage form, strength, route of administration, conditions of use, and labeling as our product candidate and might conduct a relatively inexpensive study to demonstrate that the generic product is absorbed in the body at the same rate and to the same extent as, or is bioequivalent to, our product. In the EU, a medicinal product containing a new active substance, which has never been approved in a medicinal product in the EU before, as well as in certain other circumstances, is entitled to eight years of data exclusivity and ten years of market exclusivity following a grant of marketing authorization (MA). During the first eight years, no generic company may refer to the data used by us to obtain a marketing authorization. After eight years, generics may reference our data, provided that they have demonstrated with appropriate bioavailability studies, that their product is bioequivalent to our product. Generic medicinal products may only be placed on the market in the EU after a total of ten years have expired after our initial MA. These generic equivalents would be significantly less costly than ours to bring to market, and companies that produce generic equivalents are generally able to offer their products at lower prices. Thus, after the introduction of a generic competitor, a significant percentage of the sales of any branded product are typically lost to the generic product. Accordingly, competition from generic equivalents to our products would substantially limit our ability to generate revenues and therefore to obtain a return on the investments we have made in our products.
Regulation - Risk 2
Currently enacted and future legislation, including potentially unfavorable pricing regulations or other healthcare reform initiatives, may increase the difficulty and cost for us to obtain marketing approval of and commercialize ganaxolone and affect the prices we may obtain.
The regulations that govern, among other things, marketing approvals, coverage, pricing and reimbursement for new drug products vary widely from country to country. In the U.S. and some foreign jurisdictions, there have been a number of legislative and regulatory changes and proposed changes regarding the healthcare system that could prevent or delay marketing approval of ganaxolone, restrict or regulate post-approval activities and affect our ability to successfully sell ganaxolone, if we obtain marketing approval. In the U.S., there have been and continue to be a number of legislative and regulatory changes and proposed changes to contain healthcare costs. For example, the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act of 2003 (Medicare Modernization Act) changed the way Medicare covers and pays for pharmaceutical products. The legislation expanded Medicare coverage for drug purchases by eligible beneficiaries and introduced a new reimbursement methodology based on average sales prices for physician administered drugs. In recent years, Congress has considered reductions in Medicare reimbursement for drugs administered by physicians. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) also has the authority to revise reimbursement rates and to implement coverage restrictions for drugs. Cost reduction initiatives and changes in coverage implemented through legislation or regulation could decrease utilization of, and reimbursement for, any approved products, which in turn would affect the price we can receive for those products. Any reduction in reimbursement from Medicare or other government programs may result in a similar reduction in payments from private payers. The implementation of cost containment measures or other healthcare reforms may prevent us from being able to generate revenue, attain profitability, or commercialize our drugs. We expect that additional state and federal healthcare reform measures will be adopted in the future, any of which could limit the amounts that federal and state governments will pay for healthcare products and services, which could result in reduced demand for ganaxolone, if approved, or additional pricing pressures. The Affordable Care Act is intended to reduce the cost of, improve the quality of, and expand access to healthcare, among other things. Among other things, the Affordable Care Act expanded manufacturers' Medicaid rebate liability to include covered drugs dispensed to individuals who are enrolled in Medicaid managed care organizations, increased the minimum rebate due for innovator drugs from 15.1% of average manufacturer price (AMP) to 23.1% of AMP. The rebate amount is no longer subject to a cap, effective January 1, 2024. The Affordable Care Act and subsequent legislation also changed the definition of AMP. Furthermore, the Affordable Care Act imposed a significant annual, nondeductible fee on companies that manufacture or import certain branded prescription drug products. Certain provisions of the Affordable Care Act have been subject to judicial challenges as well as efforts to modify them or to alter their interpretation or implementation. Additional legislative changes, regulatory changes, and judicial challenges related to the Affordable Care Act remain possible, but the nature and extent of such potential changes or challenges are uncertain at this time. The implications of the Affordable Care Act, and efforts to modify or invalidate the Affordable Care Act or its implementing regulations, or portions thereof, and the political uncertainty surrounding any efforts to further reform health care for our business and financial condition, if any, are not clear. We will continue to evaluate the effect that the Affordable Care Act as well as its possible modification or invalidation and other healthcare reform measures, has on our business. In addition, other legislative changes have been proposed and adopted since the Affordable Care Act was enacted. The Budget Control Act of 2011, among other things, created the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction to recommend to Congress proposals in spending reductions. The Joint Select Committee did not achieve its targeted deficit reduction, which triggered the legislation's automatic reduction to several government programs. This includes aggregate reductions to Medicare payments to healthcare providers of, on average, 2.0% per fiscal year, starting in 2013 and continuing through 2031. Sequestration is currently set at 2% and will increase to 2.25% for the first half of fiscal year 2030, to 3% for the second half of fiscal year 2030, and to 4% for the remainder of the sequestration period that lasts through the first six months of fiscal year 2031.Additionally, the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, among other things, reduced Medicare payments to several categories of healthcare providers and increased the statute of limitations period for the government to recover overpayments to providers from three to five years. If we ever obtain regulatory approval and commercialization of ganaxolone, these laws may result in reductions in Medicare and other healthcare funding, which could have a material adverse effect on our customers and accordingly, our financial operations. Further, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA), among other things, establishes a Medicare Part B inflation rebate scheme, under which, generally speaking, manufacturers will owe rebates if the average sales price of a Part B drug increases faster than the pace of inflation. Failure to timely pay a Part B inflation rebate is subject to a civil monetary penalty. The IRA also establishes a Medicare Part D inflation rebate scheme, under which generally speaking manufacturers will owe rebates if the average manufacturer price of a Part D drug increases faster than the pace of inflation. The IRA also creates a drug price negotiation program under which the prices for Medicare units of certain high Medicare spend drugs and biologics without generic or biosimilar competition will be capped by reference to, among other things, a specified non-federal average manufacturer price, starting in 2026. Failure to comply with requirements under the drug price negotiation program is subject to an excise tax and/or a civil monetary penalty. The IRA further makes changes to the Medicare Part D benefit, including a limit on annual out-of-pocket costs and replaces the existing coverage gap discount program with a new manufacturer discount program (beginning in 2025), which could negatively affect the profitability of our product candidates. Failure to pay a discount under this new program will be subject to a civil monetary penalty. Congress continues to examine various policy proposals that may result in pressure on the prices of prescription drugs in the government health benefit programs. The IRA or other legislative changes could impact the market conditions for our product candidates. In addition, legislative and regulatory proposals have been made to expand post-approval requirements and restrict sales and promotional activities for pharmaceutical products. We cannot be sure whether additional legislative changes will be enacted, or whether regulations, guidance or interpretations will be changed, or what the impact of such changes on the marketing approvals of ganaxolone may be. In the U.S., the EU and other potentially significant markets for ganaxolone, there has been increasing legislative, regulatory, and enforcement interest with respect to drug pricing practices. There have been several U.S. Congressional inquiries and proposed and enacted federal and state legislation designed to, among other things, bring more transparency to drug pricing, reduce the cost of prescription drugs under Medicare, review the relationship between pricing and manufacturer patient programs, and reform government program reimbursement methodologies for drugs. Individual states in the U.S. have also increasingly passed legislation and implemented regulations designed to control pharmaceutical and biological product pricing, including by requiring pharmaceutical manufacturers to report to state agencies when they introduce new drugs to market with prices over a certain threshold, or when they increase the price of a drug over a certain threshold. Government authorities and third-party payers are increasingly attempting to limit or regulate the price of medical products and services, particularly for new and innovative products and therapies, which has resulted in lower average selling prices. Furthermore, the increased emphasis on managed healthcare in the U.S. and on country and regional pricing and reimbursement controls in the EU will put additional pressure on product pricing, reimbursement and usage, which may adversely affect our future product sales and results of operations. These pressures can arise from rules and practices of managed care groups, judicial decisions and governmental laws and regulations related to Medicare, Medicaid and healthcare reform, pharmaceutical reimbursement policies and pricing in general. Some countries require approval of the sale price of a drug before it can be marketed. In many countries, the pricing review period begins after marketing or product licensing approval is granted. In some foreign markets, prescription pharmaceutical pricing remains subject to continuing governmental control even after initial approval is granted. As a result, we might obtain marketing approval for ganaxolone in a particular country, but then be subject to price regulations that delay our commercial launch of the product, possibly for lengthy time periods, which could negatively impact the revenue we are able to generate from the sale of the product in that particular country. Adverse pricing limitations may hinder our ability to recoup our investment in ganaxolone even if ganaxolone obtains marketing approval.
Regulation - Risk 3
We participate in the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program and if we fail to comply with our reporting and payment obligations under that program or other governmental pricing programs that we participate in, we could be subject to additional reimbursement requirements, penalties, sanctions and fines, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and growth prospects.
We participate in the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program. Under the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program, we are required to pay a rebate to each state Medicaid program for our covered outpatient drugs that are dispensed to Medicaid beneficiaries and paid for by a state Medicaid program as a condition of having federal funds being made available for our drugs under Medicaid and Medicare Part B. Those rebates are based on pricing data that we report on a monthly and quarterly basis to CMS, the federal agency that administers the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program. These data include the average manufacturer price and, in the case of single-source and innovator multiple-source products, the best price for each drug which, in general, represents the lowest price available from the manufacturer to any entity in the United States in any pricing structure, calculated to include all sales and associated rebates, discounts and other price concessions subject to certain exclusions. The Affordable Care Act made significant changes to the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program, and CMS issued a final regulation to implement the changes to the Medicaid Drug Rebate program under the Affordable Care Act. CMS issued another final regulation that (i) modified existing Medicaid Drug Rebate Program regulations to permit reporting multiple Best Price figures with regard to value-based purchasing arrangements and (ii) provided definitions for "line extension," "new formulation," and related terms with the practical effect of expanding the scope of drugs considered to be line extensions, with such changes taking effect in 2022). If we become aware that our Medicaid reporting for a prior quarter was incorrect or has changed as a result of recalculation of the pricing data, we are obligated to resubmit the corrected data for up to three years after those data originally were due, which revisions could affect our rebate liability for prior quarters. If we fail to pay the required rebate amount or report pricing data on a timely basis, we may be subject to civil monetary penalties and/or termination of our Medicaid Drug Rebate program agreement, in which case federal payments may not be available under Medicaid or Medicare Part B for our covered outpatient drugs. Our failure to comply with the aforementioned price reporting and rebate payment obligations, as well as pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) "accumulator" programs, could negatively impact our financial results. In addition, statutory and regulatory changes or other agency action regarding the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program could negatively affect our financial results or expand our rebate liability. For example, Congress could enact legislation that would extend rebates under the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program to all Children's Health Insurance Program or CHIP utilization. Federal law requires that any company that participates in the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program also participate in the 340B program in order for federal funds to be available for the manufacturer's drugs under Medicaid and Medicare Part B. The 340B program, which is administered by the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), requires participating manufacturers to agree to charge statutorily defined covered entities no more than the 340B "ceiling price" for the manufacturer's covered outpatient drugs. These 340B covered entities include a variety of community health clinics and other entities that receive health services grants from the Public Health Service, as well as certain hospitals that serve a disproportionate share of low income patients. The Affordable Care Act expanded the list of covered entities to include certain children's hospitals, free-standing cancer hospitals, critical access hospitals, rural referral centers and sole community hospitals, but exempted "orphan drugs" from the ceiling price requirements for these covered entities. The 340B ceiling price is calculated using a statutory formula based on the average manufacturer price and unit rebate amount for the covered outpatient drug as calculated under the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program, and in general, products subject to Medicaid price reporting and rebate liability are also subject to the 340B ceiling price calculation and discount requirement. If we are found to have knowingly and intentionally charged 340B covered entities more than the statutorily mandated ceiling price, we could be subject to significant civil monetary penalties and/or such failure also could be grounds for HRSA to terminate our agreement to participate in the 340B program, in which case our covered outpatient drugs would no longer be eligible for federal payment under the Medicaid or Medicare Part B program.  Any additional future changes to the definition of average manufacturer price and the Medicaid unit rebate amount under the Affordable Care Act or other legislation or regulation could affect our 340B ceiling price calculations and negatively impact our results of operations if we successfully commercialize one or more products for which we receive regulatory approval. HRSA issued a final regulation regarding the calculation of the 340B ceiling price and the imposition of civil monetary penalties on manufacturers that knowingly and intentionally overcharge covered entities. It is unclear how HRSA will apply its enforcement authority under this regulation. HRSA also has implemented a ceiling price reporting requirement, pursuant to which manufacturers must report the 340B ceiling prices for their covered outpatient drugs to HRSA on a quarterly basis. HRSA then publishes those prices to 340B covered entities. Moreover, under another final regulation, HRSA newly established an administrative dispute resolution (ADR) process for claims by covered entities that a manufacturer has engaged in overcharging, including claims that a manufacturer has limited the covered entity's ability to purchase covered outpatient drugs at or below the 340B ceiling price, and by manufacturers that a covered entity violated the prohibitions against diversion or duplicate discounts, including claims that an individual does not qualify as a patient for 340B Program purposes and claims that a covered entity is not eligible for the 340B Program. Such claims are to be resolved through an ADR panel of government officials rendering a decision that can be appealed to a federal court. An ADR proceeding could subject a manufacturer to onerous procedural requirements and could result in additional liability. In addition, changes to legislation, regulations, or guidance could modify 340B program compliance or expand discount liability. Federal law also requires that a company report average sales price information each quarter to CMS for certain categories of drugs that are payable under the Medicare Part B program. Manufacturers calculate the average sales price based on a statutorily defined formula as well as regulations and interpretations of the statute by CMS. CMS may use these submissions to determine payment rates for drugs under Medicare Part B. Manufacturers must pay refunds to Medicare for single source drugs or biologics, or biosimilar biological products, reimbursed under Medicare Part B and packaged in single-dose containers or single-use packages, for units of discarded drug reimbursed by Medicare Part B in excess of 10% of total allowed charges under Medicare Part B for that drug (or a percentage established for drugs with unique circumstances). Manufacturers that knowingly submit any false pricing or other information to the government, make a misrepresentation in the reporting of average sales price, or fail to timely pay refunds could be subject to civil monetary penalties. The IRA establishes a Medicare Part B inflation rebate scheme, under which, generally speaking, manufacturers will owe rebates if the average sales price of a Part B drug increases faster than the pace of inflation. Failure to timely pay a Part B inflation rebate is subject to a civil monetary penalty. In addition, manufacturers are currently required to provide to CMS a 70% discount on brand name prescription drugs utilized by Medicare Part D beneficiaries when those beneficiaries are in the coverage gap phase of the Part D benefit design. The IRA replaces the coverage gap discount program with a new manufacturer discount program beginning in 2025. Under either program, civil monetary penalties could be applied, in the amount of 125% of the discount that was due, if a manufacturer fails to provide these discounts. Moreover, the IRA also establishes a Medicare Part D inflation rebate scheme, under which generally speaking manufacturers will owe rebates if the average manufacturer price of a Part D drug increases faster than the pace of inflation. Failure to timely pay a Part D inflation rebate is subject to a civil monetary penalty. Pricing and rebate calculations vary among products and programs. The calculations are complex and are often subject to interpretation by the manufacturer, governmental or regulatory agencies, and the courts. Such interpretation can change and evolve over time. In the case of Medicaid pricing data, if a manufacturer becomes aware that its reporting for a prior quarter was incorrect, or has changed as a result of recalculation of the pricing data, the manufacturer is obligated to resubmit the corrected data for up to three years after those data originally were due. Such restatements and recalculations increase costs for complying with the laws and regulations governing the Medicaid Drug Rebate program and could result in an overage or underage in our rebate liability for past quarters. Price recalculations also may affect the ceiling price at which a manufacturer is required to offer its products under the 340B program. Retroactive Medicaid rebates and 340B program refunds could become due as a result of these restatements. It is unclear how these restatements will impact our liability with respect to the Part B and Part D inflation rebates. In addition, if we are found to have knowingly submitted false average manufacturer price or best price information to the government, we may be liable for significant civil monetary penalties per item of false information. Our failure to submit monthly/quarterly average manufacturer price and best price data on a timely basis also could result in a significant civil monetary penalty per day for each day the information is late beyond the due date. And if we are found to have knowingly misclassified a drug (i.e., by knowingly classifying it as a generic drug for Medicaid Drug Rebate Program purposes, which are subject to lower rebates, instead of a single-source or innovator multiple-source drug), we could be subject to civil monetary penalties no greater than two times the difference between the rebates we should have paid and the rebates we actually paid, which penalties are in addition to the penalties discussed previously. Such failures also could be grounds for CMS to terminate our Medicaid drug rebate agreement, pursuant to which we would be participating in the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program. In the event that CMS terminates our rebate agreement, no federal payments would be available under Medicaid or Medicare Part B for our covered outpatient drugs. If we are found to have made a misrepresentation in the reporting of our average sales price, the Medicare statute provides for significant civil monetary penalties for each misrepresentation for each day in which the misrepresentation was applied. Civil monetary penalties can also be applied if we are found to have knowingly and intentionally charged 340B covered entities more than the statutorily mandated ceiling price. A covered entity or association representing covered entities can also bring claims against us through HRSA's 340B ADR process. HRSA could terminate our 340B program Pharmaceutical Pricing Agreement for good cause, which would cause our Medicaid National Drug Rebate Agreement to be terminated, rendering federal funds for our covered outpatient drugs unavailable under Medicaid and Medicare Part B. Finally, we note again that civil monetary penalties could apply, in the amount of 125% of the discount that was due, if a manufacturer fails to provide discounts under the Medicare Part D coverage gap discount program and similar civil monetary penalties will apply with respect to the new manufacturer discount program established under the IRA. CMS and the HHS OIG have pursued manufacturers that were alleged to have failed to report these data to the government in a timely manner. Governmental agencies may also make changes in program interpretations, requirements or conditions of participation, some of which may have implications for amounts previously estimated or paid. If we participate in the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program and consequently the 340B program, we cannot assure you that our submissions will not be found to be incomplete or incorrect. In order to be eligible to have our products that we successfully commercialize paid for with federal funds under the Medicaid and Medicare Part B programs and purchased by certain federal agencies and grantees, we also would have to participate in the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Federal Supply Schedule (FSS) pricing program. As part of this program, we would be obligated to make our innovator products available for procurement on an FSS contract under which we would be required to comply with standard government contract terms and conditions and charge a price that is no higher than the statutory Federal Ceiling Price (FCP) to four federal agencies (VA, Department of Defense (DOD), Public Health Service, and U.S. Coast Guard). The FCP is based on the Non-Federal Average Manufacturer Price (Non-FAMP), which we would be required to calculate and report to the VA on a quarterly and annual basis. Pursuant to applicable law and related contract terms, knowing provision of false information in connection with a Non-FAMP filing can subject a manufacturer to significant civil monetary penalties for each item of false information. The FSS pricing program and contract also contain extensive disclosure and certification requirements. If we successfully commercialize one or more products for which we receive regulatory approval, we also would participate in the Tricare Retail Pharmacy program, under which we would be required to pay quarterly rebates on utilization of innovator products that are dispensed through the Tricare Retail Pharmacy network to Tricare beneficiaries. The rebates are calculated as the difference between the annual Non-FAMP and FCP. We would be required to list our innovator products on a Tricare Agreement in order for them to be eligible for DOD formulary inclusion. If it were concluded that we had overcharged the government in connection with our FSS contract or Tricare Agreement, whether due to a misstated FCP or otherwise, we would be required to refund the difference to the government. Failure to make necessary disclosures and/or to identify contract overcharges could result in allegations against us under the FCA and /or other laws and regulations. Unexpected refunds to the government, and/or having to respond to a government investigation or enforcement action, could be expensive and time-consuming, and could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and growth prospects.
Regulation - Risk 4
Laws and regulations governing international operations may preclude us from developing, manufacturing and selling product candidates outside of the U.S. and require us to develop and implement costly compliance programs.
As we seek to expand our operations outside of the U.S., we must comply with numerous laws and regulations in each jurisdiction in which we plan to operate. The creation and implementation of international business practices compliance programs is costly and such programs are difficult to enforce, particularly where reliance on third parties is required. The Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) prohibits any U.S. individual or business from paying, offering, authorizing payment or offering of anything of value, directly or indirectly, to any foreign official, political party or candidate for the purpose of influencing any act or decision of the foreign entity in order to assist the individual or business in obtaining or retaining business. The FCPA also obligates companies whose securities are listed in the U.S. to comply with certain accounting provisions requiring such companies to maintain books and records that accurately and fairly reflect all transactions of the corporation, including international subsidiaries, and to devise and maintain an adequate system of internal accounting controls for international operations. The anti-bribery provisions of the FCPA are enforced primarily by the DOJ. The SEC is involved with enforcement of the books and records provisions of the FCPA. Compliance with the FCPA is expensive and difficult, particularly in countries in which corruption is a recognized problem. In addition, the FCPA presents particular challenges in the pharmaceutical industry, because, in many countries, hospitals are operated by the government, and doctors and other hospital employees are considered foreign officials. Certain payments to hospitals in connection with clinical trials and other work have been deemed to be improper payments to government officials and have led to FCPA enforcement actions. Various laws, regulations and executive orders also restrict the use and dissemination outside of the U.S., or the sharing with certain foreign nationals, of information classified for national security purposes, as well as certain products and technical data relating to those products. Our expanding presence outside of the U.S. will require us to dedicate additional resources to comply with these laws, and these laws may preclude us from developing, manufacturing, or selling ganaxolone outside of the U.S., which could limit our growth potential and increase our development costs. The failure to comply with laws governing international business practices may result in substantial penalties, including suspension or debarment from government contracting. Violation of the FCPA can result in significant civil and criminal penalties. Indictment alone under the FCPA can lead to suspension of the right to do business with the U.S. government until the pending claims are resolved. Conviction of a violation of the FCPA can result in long-term disqualification as a government contractor. The termination of a government contract or relationship as a result of our failure to satisfy any of our obligations under laws governing international business practices would have a negative impact on our operations and harm our reputation and ability to procure government contracts. The SEC also may suspend or bar issuers from trading securities on U.S. exchanges for violations of the FCPA's accounting provisions.
Regulation - Risk 5
Our relationships with customers and third-party payers are subject to applicable anti-kickback, fraud and abuse and other healthcare laws and regulations, which could expose us to criminal sanctions, civil penalties, contractual damages, reputational harm and diminished profits and future earnings.
Healthcare providers, physicians and others play a primary role in the recommendation and prescription of our commercial products and any other product candidates for which we obtain marketing approval. Our arrangements with healthcare professionals, third-party payers, patients and others expose us to broadly applicable fraud and abuse, anti-kickback, false claims, and other healthcare laws and regulations that may affect the business or financial arrangements and relationships through which we would market, sell and distribute our products. Even though we do not and will not control referrals of healthcare services or bill directly to Medicare, Medicaid or other third-party payers, federal and state healthcare laws and regulations pertaining to fraud and abuse and patients' rights are and will be applicable to our business. Restrictions under applicable federal and state healthcare laws and regulations that may affect our operations (including our marketing, promotion, educational programs, pricing, and relationships with healthcare providers or other entities, among other things) and expose us to areas of risk including the following: - the federal Anti-Kickback Statute (AKS) prohibits, among other things, knowingly and willfully soliciting, offering, or receiving remuneration, directly or indirectly, in cash or in kind, to induce or reward, or in return for, either the referral of an individual for, or the purchase, order or recommendation of, or arranging for the purchase, lease, or order of, any healthcare item or service, for which payment may be made under a federal healthcare program such as Medicare & Medicaid;- the FCA prohibits, among other things, individuals or entities from knowingly presenting, or causing to be presented, a false or fraudulent claim for payment of government funds, or knowingly making, using, or causing to be made or used a false record or statement material to an obligation to pay money to the government, or knowingly and improperly avoiding, decreasing or concealing an obligation to pay money to the federal government;- other federal false claims laws, including, among others, federal criminal healthcare fraud and false statement statutes that extend to non-government health benefit programs;- the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 and its implementing regulations (collectively, HIPAA) imposes criminal and civil liability for executing a scheme to defraud any healthcare benefit program, including private third-party payers, and also prohibits knowingly and willfully falsifying, concealing or covering up a material fact or making any materially false statements in connection with the delivery of or payment for healthcare benefits, items or services;- the federal Physician Payments Sunshine Act, implemented as the Open Payments Program, requires manufacturers of drugs, devices, biologics and medical supplies for which payment is available under Medicare, Medicaid, or Children's Health Insurance Program, to report annually to CMS information related to payments and other transfers of value to physicians, and teaching hospitals, and starting in 2022 certain other health care professionals, and ownership and investment interests held by physicians and their immediate family members; and - analogous state and foreign laws and regulations, such as state anti-kickback and false claims laws, which may apply to sales or marketing arrangements and claims involving healthcare items or services reimbursed by non-governmental third-party payers, including private insurers, as well as other state laws and regulations governing pharmaceutical manufacturers; and - state and foreign laws and regulations govern the privacy and security of health information in specified circumstances, many of which differ from each other in significant ways and often are not preempted by HIPAA, thus complicating compliance efforts. We refer you to the section titled "Other Healthcare Laws and Compliance Requirements" in the Government Regulation section for a more fulsome description of these laws. Efforts to ensure that our business arrangements with third parties are compliant with applicable healthcare laws and regulations will involve the expenditure of appropriate, and possibly significant, resources. Nonetheless, it is possible that governmental authorities will conclude that our business practices may not comply with current or future statutes, regulations or case law involving applicable fraud and abuse or other healthcare laws and regulations. If our operations are found to be in violation of any of these laws or any other governmental regulations that may apply to us, we may be subject to significant civil, criminal and administrative penalties, damages, fines, imprisonment, exclusion from government funded healthcare programs, such as Medicare & Medicaid, and the curtailment or restructuring of our operations. If any physicians or other healthcare providers or entities with whom we expect to do business are found to not be in compliance with applicable laws, they may be subject to criminal, civil or administrative sanctions, including exclusions from government funded healthcare programs.
Regulation - Risk 6
Even though we have obtained regulatory approval for ZTALMY in the U.S. and EU, we will still face extensive FDA and EMA regulatory requirements and may face regulatory difficulties.
Even though we have obtained regulatory approval in the U.S. and EU for ZTALMY, the FDA, EC and state regulatory authorities (and, if we obtain other foreign regulatory approvals, comparable foreign regulatory authorities) may still impose significant restrictions on the indicated uses or marketing of ZTALMY or impose ongoing requirements for potential costly post-approval studies or post-marketing surveillance. For example, as part of its approval of ZTALMY for the treatment of CDD, the FDA requires several post-marketing commitments. The Phase 1 renal impairment study commitment was completed and submitted to the FDA in May 2022. The Phase 1 hepatic impairment study and the thorough QTc study were completed and submitted to the FDA in December 2022. The extractable/leachable study results on the container closure system were submitted to the FDA in July 2023, the M17 in vitro drug-drug interaction (DDI) study was submitted in August 2023, and the M17 in vivo PK study with Brain Penetrance was submitted in December 2023. The remaining post-marketing commitments include the following studies: - 2-year carcinogenicity studies of ganaxolone and the major human unconjugated plasma metabolite, M2, in rats. - a 26-week carcinogenicity study of ganaxolone in transgenic mice. - a juvenile animal toxicity study of the major human unconjugated plasma metabolite, M2, in rats. In connection with the EC approval of ZTALMY for CDD, we have several post-marketing authorization measures. The clinical study report (CSR) for Study 1042-HME-1001 was submitted in September 2023. The ganaxolone Steady-State Metabolite Study report, the final Study 1042-CDD-3001 CSR with the open-label trial completion, the M17 in vitro DDI study, and the M17 in vivo PK study with Brain Penetrance were submitted in December 2023. The remaining post-marketing authorization measures include: participating in Study LLF001 (CANDID observational study) and providing annual updates; participating in the CDD-IPR-CDD-0 CDKL5 Deficiency Disorder International Patient Registry and providing six monthly updates; conducting a toxicity study with a sediment dwelling organism and an updated Environmental Risk Assessment; developing a sodium benzoate-free suspension and assessing the compatibility of the oral suspension with food, drinks, enteral tubes, shake time and stand time; conducting a 26-Week Oral Gavage Toxicity Study of M2; conducting a M2 Embryo-fetal Development study; and conducting a 26-week Oral Gavage Carcinogenicity Study of ganaxolone and M2. The EMA also requested weight of evidence (WoE) assessments to evaluate the need for a 2-year carcinogenicity study in rats with ganaxolone, a 2-year carcinogenicity study in rats with M2, and a juvenile toxicity study with M2. We expect to be able complete the remaining required studies within the requested EMA timeframe. These additional studies will likely require us to undergo a costly and time-consuming development process. If we do not meet our obligations, the FDA and EC may issue non-compliance letters and may also consider ZTALMY to be misbranded and subject to potential enforcement action. There is a risk that the studies could take longer than expected to complete or the studies may have adverse findings which may require additional investments and have the potential to materially impact our marketing of ZTALMY. We are also subject to ongoing FDA and EC requirements governing the manufacture, quality control, further development, labeling, packaging, storage, distribution, safety surveillance, patient registry, import, export, advertising, promotion, recordkeeping and reporting of safety and other post-market information. The safety profile of ganaxolone will continue to be closely monitored by the FDA, EC and comparable foreign regulatory authorities after approval. If new safety information becomes available after approval of ganaxolone, the FDA, EC or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may require labeling changes or establishment of a REMS or similar strategy, impose significant restrictions on ganaxolone's indicated uses or marketing, or impose ongoing requirements for potentially costly post-approval trials or post-market surveillance. We will also be subject to continued compliance with current good manufacturing practices (cGMP) and good clinical practices (GCP) requirements for any clinical trials that we conduct post-approval. In addition, manufacturers of drug products and their facilities are subject to continual review and periodic inspections by the FDA, EC and other regulatory authorities for compliance with cGMP and other regulations. If we or a regulatory authority discover previously unknown problems with a product, such as AEs of unanticipated severity or frequency, or problems with the facility where the product is manufactured, a regulatory authority may impose restrictions on that product, the manufacturing facility or us, including requiring recall or withdrawal of the product from the market or suspension of manufacturing. If we, ganaxolone or the manufacturing facilities for ganaxolone fail to meet or comply with applicable regulatory requirements or product specifications, a regulatory authority may, among other things: - issue warning letters or untitled letters;- mandate modifications to promotional materials or require us to provide corrective information to healthcare practitioners;- require us to enter into a consent decree, which can include imposition of various fines, reimbursements for inspection costs, required due dates for specific actions and penalties for noncompliance;- seek an injunction or impose civil or criminal penalties or monetary fines;- suspend or withdraw regulatory approval;- suspend any ongoing clinical trials;- refuse to approve pending applications or supplements to applications filed by us;- suspend or impose restrictions on operations, including costly new manufacturing requirements; or - seize or detain products, refuse to permit the import or export of products, or require us to initiate a product recall. The occurrence of any event or penalty described above may inhibit or preclude our ability to commercialize ganaxolone and generate revenue. The FDA's, EC's and other regulatory authorities' policies may change, and additional government regulations may be enacted. An important and foreseeable example of this is the forthcoming EU pharmaceutical legislation revision. We cannot predict the likelihood, nature or extent of government regulation that may arise from future legislation or administrative action, either in the U.S. or abroad. If we are slow or unable to adapt to changes in existing requirements or the adoption of new requirements or policies, or if we are not able to maintain regulatory compliance, we may lose any marketing approval for ganaxolone that we may have obtained, and we may not achieve or sustain profitability, which would adversely affect our business, prospects, financial condition and results of operations. Advertising and promotion of pharmaceutical products, including ZTALMY, is heavily scrutinized by, among others, the FDA, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), the Office of the Inspector General of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS OIG), state attorneys general, members of Congress and the public. The FDA and other federal regulatory agencies closely regulate the marketing and promotion of drugs through, among other things, standards and regulations for direct-to-consumer advertising, advertising and promotion to healthcare professionals, communications regarding unapproved uses, industry-sponsored scientific and educational activities, and promotional activities involving the Internet. A product cannot be promoted before it is approved. After approval, product promotion can include only those claims relating to safety and effectiveness that are consistent with the labeling approved by the FDA. Healthcare providers are permitted to prescribe drugs for "off-label" uses - that is, uses not approved by the FDA and not described in the product's labeling - because the FDA does not regulate the practice of medicine. However, FDA regulations impose restrictions on manufacturers' communications regarding off-label uses. Broadly speaking, a manufacturer may not promote a drug for off-label use, but under certain conditions may engage in non-promotional, balanced, scientific communication regarding off-label use.  Failure to comply with applicable FDA requirements and restrictions in this area may subject a company to adverse publicity and enforcement action, including enforcement letters, inquiries and investigations, and civil and criminal sanctions by the FDA or other government agencies. In addition, advertising and promotion of ganaxolone, if approved outside of the U.S., will be heavily scrutinized by comparable foreign regulatory authorities. In the U.S., promoting ganaxolone for unapproved indications can also subject us to false claims litigation under federal and state statutes, and other litigation and/or investigation, which can lead to civil and criminal penalties and fines and agreements that materially restrict the manner in which we promote or distribute our drug products. These false claims statutes include the False Claims Act (FCA), which allows any individual to bring a lawsuit against a pharmaceutical company on behalf of the federal government alleging submission of false or fraudulent claims, or causing to present such false or fraudulent claims, for payment by a federal program such as Medicare or Medicaid. If the government prevails in the lawsuit, the individual will share in any fines or settlement funds. If we do not lawfully promote our approved products, we may become subject to such litigation and/or investigation and, if we are not successful in defending against such actions, those actions could adversely affect our business prospects, financial condition and results of operations. In the European Union (EU), strict requirements and restrictions regarding advertising and promotion apply, the details of which may vary per EU Member States. Violation of those rules could subject us to litigation, investigations and/or civil and criminal penalties, which could adversely affect our business, prospects, financial condition and results of operations.
Regulation - Risk 7
The therapeutic efficacy and safety of ganaxolone in indications other than CDD have not been established by regulatory authorities, and we may not be able to successfully develop and commercialize ganaxolone in the other indications under clinical development in the future.
Our ability to generate revenue from ganaxolone in other indications we have under clinical development such as RSE and TSC will depend on our successful development and commercialization after regulatory approval in those indications, which is subject to many potential risks and may not occur. Ganaxolone may interact with human biological systems in unforeseen, ineffective or harmful ways. If ganaxolone is associated with undesirable side effects or has characteristics that are unexpected in these indications, we may need to limit development to certain uses or subpopulations in which the undesirable side effects or other characteristics are less prevalent, less severe or more acceptable from a risk-benefit perspective. Many compounds that are approved in one indication fail to achieve regulatory approvals in additional indications. As a result of these and other risks described herein that are inherent in the development of novel therapeutic agents, we may never successfully develop ganaxolone in additional indications, which would significantly decrease the commercial potential of ganaxolone overall.
Regulation - Risk 8
If the market opportunities for ZTALMY for CDD and other indications for which we obtain regulatory approval, if any, are smaller than we believe they are, our results of operations may be adversely affected and our business may suffer.
We focus our research and product development on therapeutics to treat patients suffering from seizure disorders. Our projections of both the number of people who have these disorders, as well as the subset of people with these diseases who have the potential to benefit from treatment with ganaxolone, are based on estimates. These estimates may prove to be incorrect and new studies or clinical trials may change the estimated incidence or prevalence of these disorders. The number of patients in the U.S. and elsewhere may turn out to be lower than expected, may not be otherwise amenable to treatment with ganaxolone, or new patients may become increasingly difficult to identify or gain access to, all of which would adversely affect our results of operations and our business. ZTALMY has received regulatory approval in the U.S. and EU for CDD, and our estimates of the market for ZTALMY for CDD may be incorrect. Our ability to obtain market information is limited since ZTALMY is the first drug to be approved specifically for use in seizures associated with CDD and the ICD10 code for CDD was established in 2020, and there is limited market data available for CDD.
Regulation - Risk 9
Failure to obtain regulatory approval in international jurisdictions would prevent ganaxolone from being marketed in these jurisdictions.
In order to market and sell our products in the EU and many other jurisdictions, we must obtain separate marketing approvals and comply with numerous and varying regulatory requirements. The approval procedure varies among countries and can involve additional testing. The time required to obtain approval may differ substantially from that required to obtain FDA approval. The regulatory approval process outside the U.S. generally includes all of the risks associated with obtaining FDA approval. In addition, many countries outside the U.S. require that a product be approved for reimbursement before the product can be approved for sale in that country. We may not obtain approvals from regulatory authorities outside the U.S. on a timely basis, if at all. Approval by the FDA does not ensure approval by regulatory authorities in other countries or jurisdictions, and approval by one regulatory authority outside the U.S. does not ensure approval by regulatory authorities in other countries or jurisdictions or by the FDA. In the European Union, we submitted an MAA for ganaxolone for CDD to the EMA on October 11, 2021 and on October 28, 2021, we received formal notification from the EMA that the CDD MAA was validated. With this validation, the EMA began its formal review of the MAA under the centralized procedure. On May 26, 2023, the CHMP adopted a positive opinion recommending approval of ZTALMY and on July 28, 2023, the EC approved ZTALMY oral suspension for the adjunctive treatment of epileptic seizures associated with CDD in patients two to 17 years of age. ZTALMY may be continued in patients 18 years of age and older. The EC decision is applicable to all 27 EU member states plus Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein. ZTALMY is the first treatment in the EU indicated for the treatment of seizures associated with CDD. In connection with the EC approval of ZTALMY for CDD, we have several post-marketing authorization measures, and if we are unable to satisfy these measures, we may not maintain our MAA. If we fail to maintain our MAA or are unable to obtain approval in other countries or jurisdictions, the commercial prospects of ganaxolone may be significantly diminished and our business prospects could decline.
Regulation - Risk 10
ZTALMY is regulated as a controlled substance, which means the making, use, sale, importation, exportation, and distribution of which is subject to significant regulation by the DEA and other regulatory agencies.
The DEA regulates ganaxolone as a schedule V drug. The DEA regulates controlled substances as Schedule I, II, III, IV or V substances. Schedule I substances by definition have no established medicinal use, and may not be marketed or sold in the U.S. A pharmaceutical product may be listed as Schedule II, III, IV or V, with Schedule II substances considered to present the highest risk of abuse and Schedule V substances the lowest relative risk of abuse among such substances. Because ganaxolone is a schedule V controlled substance, the manufacturing, shipping, distribution, import, export, packaging, storing, prescribing, dispensing, selling and use of ganaxolone will be subject to additional regulations, including under the CSA and DEA regulations. Regulations associated with controlled substances also govern production and procurement quotas, recordkeeping, reporting, handling, and disposal. Additionally, because ganaxolone is a controlled substance, facilities conducting research, manufacturing, distributing, importing or exporting, or dispensing ganaxolone must be registered (licensed) to perform these activities and have the security, control, recordkeeping, reporting and inventory mechanisms required by the DEA. All these facilities must renew their registrations annually, except dispensing facilities, which must renew every three years. The DEA, and some states, also conduct periodic inspections of registered establishments that handle controlled substances. These regulations increase the personnel needs and the expense associated with commercialization of products.  Because of their restrictive nature, these laws and regulations could also limit commercialization of ganaxolone. Failure to comply with these laws and regulations could also result in loss of DEA registrations, disruption in manufacturing and distribution activities, consent decrees, criminal and civil penalties and state actions, among other consequences. Various states also independently regulate controlled substances. Though state controlled substances laws often mirror federal law, because states are separate jurisdictions, they may separately schedule drugs as well. While some states automatically schedule a drug when the DEA does so, in other states there must be a rulemaking or a legislative action. State scheduling may delay commercial sale of ganaxolone and adverse scheduling could impair the commercial attractiveness of ganaxolone. Many states require separate state registrations in order to be able to obtain, manufacture, handle, distribute and dispense controlled substances for clinical trials or commercial sale, and failure to meet applicable regulatory requirements could lead to enforcement and sanctions from the states in addition to those from the DEA or otherwise arising under federal law.
Litigation & Legal Liabilities3 | 4.8%
Litigation & Legal Liabilities - Risk 1
Product liability lawsuits against us could cause us to incur substantial liabilities and to limit commercialization of ganaxolone or other future product candidates that we may develop.
We face an inherent risk of product liability exposure related to the testing of ganaxolone by us or our investigators in human clinical trials and will face an even greater risk now that ZTALMY has received FDA approval and we enter the commercial market. Product liability claims may be brought against us by patients enrolled in our clinical trials, patients, healthcare providers or others using, administering or selling ganaxolone. If we cannot successfully defend ourselves against claims that ganaxolone caused injuries, we could incur substantial liabilities. Regardless of merit or eventual outcome, liability claims may result in, for example: - decreased demand for ganaxolone;- termination of clinical trial sites, entire clinical trials or development programs;- injury to our reputation and significant negative media attention;- withdrawal of clinical trial patients;- significant costs to defend the related litigation;- substantial monetary awards to patients;- loss of revenue;- diversion of management and scientific resources from our business operations;- the inability to commercialize ganaxolone; and - increased scrutiny and potential investigation by, among others, the FDA, the DOJ, the HHS OIG, state attorneys general, members of Congress and the public. We currently have product liability insurance coverage, which may not be adequate to cover all liabilities that we may incur. Insurance coverage is increasingly expensive. We may not be able to maintain insurance coverage at a reasonable cost or in an amount adequate to satisfy any liability that may arise. We have expanded our product liability insurance coverage to include commercial sales of ZTALMY, but we may be unable to obtain commercially reasonable limits for product liability insurance. Large judgments have been awarded in class action lawsuits based on drugs that had unanticipated side effects. A successful product liability claim or series of claims brought against us, particularly if judgments exceed our insurance coverage, could have a material adverse effect on our business and financial condition.
Litigation & Legal Liabilities - Risk 2
Added
We may become involved in additional securities litigation that could further divert management's attention and harm our business, and insurance coverage may not be sufficient to cover all costs and damages.
In addition to the existing securities class action lawsuit filed against us on June 5, 2024 captioned Bishins v. Marinus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., et. al., Case 2:24-cv-02430, we could become involved in additional securities litigation. In the past, securities litigation has often followed certain significant business transactions, such as the sale of a company or announcement of any other strategic transaction, or the announcement of negative events, such as negative results from clinical trials. We may be exposed to such litigation even if no wrongdoing occurred. Litigation is usually expensive and diverts management's attention and resources, which could adversely affect our business and cash resources and our ability to consummate a potential strategic transaction or the ultimate value our stockholders receive in any such transaction.
Litigation & Legal Liabilities - Risk 3
Added
We and certain of our officers have been named as defendants in a pending securities class action lawsuit. This lawsuit, and potential similar or related lawsuits, could result in substantial damages, divert management's time and attention from our business, and have a material adverse effect on our results of operations. This lawsuit, and any other lawsuits to which we are subject, will be costly to defend and is uncertain in its outcome.
On June 5, 2024, a securities class action lawsuit captioned Bishins v. Marinus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., et. al., Case 2:24-cv-02430 was filed against us and certain of our officers in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania. The complaint alleges violations of Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (Exchange Act) and Rule 10b-5 promulgated thereunder on the basis of purportedly materially false and misleading statements and omissions concerning our RAISE and RAISE II clinical trials. The complaint seeks, among other things, unspecified damages, attorneys' fees, expert fees, and other costs. The court appointed a lead plaintiff and lead counsel for the action on August 16, 2024. The lead plaintiff filed an amended complaint on October 4, 2024. We intend to move to dismiss the amended complaint on or before November 22, 2024. We intend to vigorously defend against this action. However, whether or not the claim is successful, litigation is often expensive and can divert management's attention and resources from other business concerns, which could adversely affect our business. We currently are not able to estimate the possible cost to us from this action, as the pending lawsuit is currently at an early stage, and we cannot be certain how long it may take to resolve the pending lawsuit or the possible amount of any damages that we may be required to pay. If we are ultimately required to pay significant defense costs, damages or settlement amounts, such payments could adversely affect our operations. We may be the target of similar litigation in the future. The market price of our common stock has experienced and may continue to experience volatility, and in the past, companies that have experienced volatility in the market price of their stock have been subject to securities litigation. Any future litigation could result in substantial costs and divert our management's attention from other business concerns, which could seriously harm our business. We maintain liability insurance; however, if any costs or expenses associated with the pending lawsuit or any other litigation exceed our insurance coverage, we may be forced to bear some or all costs and expenses directly, which could adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations or stock price. An unfavorable outcome with the pending lawsuit or any other litigation could have a material adverse effect on our business, reputation, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows, which, in turn, may result in or may contribute to an inability by us to meet the financial covenant contained in the RIFA. ?
Taxation & Government Incentives2 | 3.2%
Taxation & Government Incentives - Risk 1
Government funding for certain aspects of our programs adds uncertainty to our research efforts with respect to those programs and may impose requirements that increase the costs of commercialization and production of product candidates developed under those government-funded programs.
In September 2020, we entered into a contract (BARDA Contract) with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), a division of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response. Under the BARDA Contract, we received an award of up to an estimated $51 million for development of IV-administered ganaxolone for the treatment of RSE. The BARDA Contract provides for funding to support, on a cost-sharing basis, the completion of a Phase 3 clinical trial of IV-administered ganaxolone in patients with RSE, which covers the RAISE trial, funding of pre-clinical studies to evaluate IV-administered ganaxolone as an effective treatment for RSE due to chemical nerve gas agent exposure, and funding of certain ganaxolone manufacturing scale-up and regulatory activities. In March 2022, we entered into an amendment with BARDA to extend the end date of our base performance period for funding under the BARDA Contract from September 1, 2022 to December 31, 2023. In September 2022, we entered into an amendment with BARDA that, among other things, (i) provides for the exercise of BARDA's option under the BARDA Contract to support U.S. onshoring of the manufacturing capabilities for ganaxolone API (Option 2), (ii) changes the end date of our performance period under Option 2 from December 31, 2026 to July 31, 2025, (iii) increases the government cost share amount under Option 2 from approximately $11.5 million to approximately $12.3 million, and (iv) increases our cost share amount under Option 2 from approximately $4.9 million to approximately $5.3 million. In September 2023, we entered into an amendment with BARDA to extend the end date of our base performance period for funding under the BARDA Contract from December 31, 2023 to September 30, 2024. The BARDA Contract consists of an approximately four-year base period, including the extension periods, during which BARDA agreed to provide up to approximately $21 million of funding for the RAISE trial on a cost share basis and funding of additional preclinical studies of ganaxolone in nerve agent exposure models. As of December 31, 2023, we have recorded the entire base period funding of approximately $21 million. Following successful completion of the RAISE trial and preclinical studies in the base period and extension periods, the BARDA Contract provides for approximately $31 million of additional BARDA funding for three options in support of ganaxolone manufacturing, supply chain, clinical, regulatory and toxicology activities, including the $12.3 million exercise of Option 2 as described above. Under the BARDA Contract, we will be responsible for cost sharing in the amount of approximately $33 million and BARDA will be responsible for approximately $52 million if all development options are completed. The contract period-of-performance (base period plus option exercises) is up to approximately five years. Programs funded by the U.S. government and its agencies include provisions that confer on the government substantial rights and remedies, many of which are not typically found in commercial contracts, including powers of the government to: - terminate agreements, in whole or in part, for any reason or no reason;- reduce or modify the government's obligations under such agreements without the consent of the other party;- claim rights, including intellectual property rights, in products and data developed under such agreements;- audit contract-related costs and fees, including allocated indirect costs;- suspend the contractor from receiving new contracts pending resolution of alleged violations of procurement laws or regulations;- impose U.S. manufacturing requirements for products that embody inventions conceived or first reduced to practice under such agreements;- suspend or debar the contractor from doing future business with the government; and - control and potentially prohibit the export of products. We may not have the right to prohibit the U.S. government from using or allowing others to use certain technologies developed by us, and we may not be able to prohibit third-party companies, including our competitors, from using those technologies in providing products and services to the U.S. government. The U.S. government generally obtains the right to royalty-free use of technologies that are developed under U.S. government contracts. In addition, government contracts normally contain additional requirements that may increase our costs of doing business, reduce our profits, and expose us to liability for failure to comply with these terms and conditions. These requirements include, for example: - specialized accounting systems unique to government contracts;- mandatory financial audits and potential liability for price adjustments or recoupment of government funds after such funds have been spent;- public disclosures of certain contract information, which may enable competitors to gain insights into our research program; and - mandatory socioeconomic compliance requirements, including labor standards, non-discrimination and affirmative action programs and environmental compliance requirements. If we fail to maintain compliance with these requirements, we may be subject to potential contract liability and to termination of our contracts. In addition, if an audit or review uncovers any improper or illegal activity, we may be subject to civil and criminal penalties and administrative sanctions, including termination of our contracts, forfeiture of profits, suspension of payments, fines and suspension or prohibition from doing business with the U.S. government. We could also suffer serious harm to our reputation if allegations of impropriety were made against us. In addition, under U.S. government purchasing regulations, some of our costs may not be reimbursable or allowed under the BARDA Contract. Further, as a U.S. government contractor, we are subject to an increased risk of investigations, criminal prosecution, civil fraud, whistleblower lawsuits and other legal actions and liabilities as compared to private sector commercial companies. Further, changes in government budgets and agendas may result in a decreased and de-prioritized emphasis on supporting the RSE development program. Any reduction or delay in BARDA funding may force us to seek alternative funding in order to progress our RSE program, which may not be available on non-dilutive terms, terms favorable to us or at all.
Taxation & Government Incentives - Risk 2
We rely on government funding for certain aspects of our research and development activities and we may develop intellectual property through such activities and therefore may be subject to federal regulations such as "march-in" rights, certain reporting requirements and a preference for U.S. based companies. Compliance with such regulations may limit our exclusive rights, and limit our ability to contract with non-U.S. manufacturers.
In September 2020, we entered into the BARDA Contract for the completion of pre-clinical and clinical development activities for IV administered ganaxolone for the treatment of RSE. We may generate intellectual property rights through the use of this U.S. government funding and are therefore subject to certain federal regulations. As a result, the U.S. government may have certain rights to intellectual property embodied in our current or future product candidates pursuant to the Bayh-Dole Act of 1980 (Bayh-Dole Act), and implementing regulations. These U.S. government rights in certain inventions developed under a government-funded program include a non-exclusive, non-transferable, irrevocable worldwide license to use inventions for any governmental purpose. In addition, the U.S. government has the right to require us to grant exclusive, partially exclusive, or non-exclusive licenses to any of these inventions to a third party if it determines that: (i) adequate steps have not been taken to commercialize the invention; (ii) government action is necessary to meet public health or safety needs; or (iii) government action is necessary to meet requirements for public use under federal regulations (also referred to as "march-in rights"). The U.S. government also has the right to take title to these inventions if we to disclose the invention to the government and fail to file an application to register the intellectual property in the specified manner and within specified time limits. These time limits have recently been changed by regulation, and may change in the future. Intellectual property generated under a government funded program is also subject to certain reporting requirements, compliance with which may require us to expend substantial resources. In addition, the U.S. government requires that any products embodying the subject invention or produced through the use of the subject invention be manufactured substantially in the U.S. The manufacturing preference requirement can be waived if the owner of the intellectual property can show that reasonable but unsuccessful efforts have been made to grant licenses on similar terms to potential licensees that would be likely to manufacture substantially in the U.S. or that under the circumstances domestic manufacture is not commercially feasible. This preference for U.S. manufacturers may limit our ability to contract with non-U.S. product manufacturers for products covered by such intellectual property. To the extent any of our current or future intellectual property is generated through the use of U.S. government funding, the provisions of the Bayh-Dole Act may similarly apply.
Environmental / Social1 | 1.6%
Environmental / Social - Risk 1
We may be subject to data privacy and security regulations by both the federal government and the states in which we conduct our business, which could impose significant regulatory hurdles on our business.
HIPAA imposes requirements relating to the privacy, security and transmission of individually identifiable health information. HIPAA imposes privacy and security obligations on covered entity health care providers, health plans, and health care clearinghouses, as well as their "business associates"-certain persons or entities that create, receive, maintain or transmit protected health information in connection with providing a specified service on behalf of a covered entity. We may obtain health information from third parties (including research institutions from which we obtain clinical trial data) that are subject to privacy and security requirements under HIPAA. Although we are not directly subject to HIPAA, other than potentially with respect to providing certain employee benefits, we could potentially be subject to criminal penalties if we, our affiliates, or our agents knowingly receive individually identifiable health information maintained by a HIPAA-covered entity in a manner that is not authorized or permitted by HIPAA. In addition, numerous other federal and state laws and regulations govern privacy and security, including state data breach notification laws, state health information and/or genetic privacy laws, and federal and state consumer protection laws (e.g., Section 5 of the FTC Act, and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA)), many of which differ from each other in significant ways and may not have the same effect, thus complicating compliance efforts. Compliance with these laws is difficult, constantly evolving, and time consuming. Federal regulators, state attorneys general, and plaintiffs' attorneys have been and will likely continue to be active in this space. Furthermore, states are constantly adopting new laws or amending existing laws relating to the data privacy and security and consumer protection, requiring attention to frequently changing regulatory requirements. For example, in California, the CCPA establishes certain requirements for data use and sharing transparency and creates new data privacy rights for California residents. The CCPA and its implementing regulations have already been amended multiple times since their enactment. In November 2020, California voters approved the California Privacy Rights Act (CPRA) ballot initiative which introduced significant amendments to the CCPA and established and funded a dedicated California privacy regulator, the California Privacy Protection Agency (CPPA). The amendments introduced by the CPRA go into effect on January 1, 2023, and new implementing regulations continue to be introduced by the CPPA. Failure to comply with the CCPA may result in, among other things, significant civil penalties and injunctive relief, or potential statutory or actual damages. In addition, California residents have the right to bring a private right of action in connection with certain types of incidents. These claims may result in significant liability and potential damages. We implemented processes to manage compliance with the CCPA and continue to assess the impact of the CPRA, and other state legislation, on our business as additional information and guidance becomes available. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) also sets expectations for failing to take appropriate steps to keep consumers' personal information secure, or failing to provide a level of security commensurate to promises made to individual about the security of their personal information (such as in a privacy notice) may constitute unfair or deceptive acts or practices in violation of Section 5(a) of the Federal Trade Commission Act (FTC Act). The FTC expects a company's data security measures to be reasonable and appropriate in light of the sensitivity and volume of consumer information it holds, the size and complexity of its business, and the cost of available tools to improve security and reduce vulnerabilities. Individually identifiable health information is considered sensitive data that merits stronger safeguards. With respect to privacy, the FTC also sets expectations that companies honor the privacy promises made to individuals about how the company handles consumers' personal information; any failure to honor promises, such as the statements made in a privacy policy or on a website, may also constitute unfair or deceptive acts or practices in violation of the FTC Act. While we do not intend to engage in unfair or deceptive acts or practices, the FTC has the power to enforce promises as it interprets them, and events that we cannot fully control, such as data breaches, may result in FTC enforcement. Enforcement by the FTC under the FTC Act can result in civil penalties or enforcement actions. Similarly, there are a number of legislative proposals in the EU, the U.S. (at both the federal and state level), as well as in other jurisdictions that could change existing obligations, and/or impose new obligations or limitations in areas affecting our business. These laws and regulations are evolving and subject to interpretation, and may impose limitations on our activities or otherwise adversely affect our business. In addition, some countries are considering or have passed legislation implementing data protection requirements or requiring local storage and processing of data or similar requirements that could increase the cost and complexity of delivering our services and research activities. These laws and regulations, as well as any associated claims, inquiries, or investigations or any other government actions may lead to unfavorable outcomes including increased compliance costs, delays or impediments in the development of new products, negative publicity, increased operating costs, diversion of management time and attention, and remedies that harm our business, including fines or demands or orders that we modify or cease existing business practices. If we, our agents, or our third party partners fail to comply or are alleged to have failed to comply with these or other applicable data protection and privacy laws and regulations, or if we were to experience a data breach involving personal information, we could be subject to government enforcement actions or private lawsuits. Any associated claims, inquiries, or investigations or other government actions could lead to unfavorable outcomes that have a material impact on our business including through significant penalties or fines, monetary judgments or settlements including criminal and civil liability for us and our officers and directors, increased compliance costs, delays or impediments in the development of new products, negative publicity, increased operating costs, diversion of management time and attention, or other remedies that harm our business, including orders that we modify or cease existing business practices. In addition, the EU's legislative and regulatory landscape for privacy and data security continues to evolve. There has been increased attention to privacy and data security issues that could potentially affect our business, including the EU General Data Protection Regulation including as implemented in the UK (collectively, GDPR), which imposes penalties for breaches of related obligations up to 4% of annual global turnover, or €20 million EUR, whichever amount is higher. In the event we enroll patients in our ongoing or future clinical trials in the European Economic Area (EEA), we will be subject to the additional privacy restrictions imposed by the GDPR, including restrictions relating to the collection, use, storage, transfer, and other processing of personal data, including personal health data, regarding individuals in the EEA as governed by the GDPR and the related national data protection laws of the individual EEA countries. The GDPR imposes several requirements on companies that process personal data, with especially strict rules on the transfer of personal data out of the EEA, including to the U.S, and fines and penalties for failure to comply with the requirements of the GDPR and the related national data protection laws of the individual EEA countries. The GDPR also confers a private right of action on data subjects and consumer associations to lodge complaints with supervisory authorities, seek judicial remedies, and obtain compensation for damages resulting from violations of the GDPR. The obligations under the GDPR may be onerous and adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects. Compliance with the GDPR will be a rigorous and time-intensive process that may increase our cost of doing business or require us to change our business practices, and despite those efforts, there is a risk that we may be subject to fines and penalties, litigation, and reputational harm in connection with any EEA activities. Further, the United Kingdom's exit from the EU, often referred to as Brexit, has created uncertainty with regard to future data protection regulation in the United Kingdom. The European Commission has adopted an Adequacy Decision concerning the level of data protection in the United Kingdom. Personal data may now flow freely from the EEA to the United Kingdom, however, the European Commission may suspend the Adequacy Decision if it considers that the United Kingdom no longer provides for an adequate level of data protection. Similar laws exist in many other countries around the world, and these laws (which are evolving and expanding) create complicated and potentially inconsistent obligations that may impact our business. Because of the remote work policies we implemented due to the COVID-19 pandemic, information that is normally protected, including company confidential information, may be less secure. Cybersecurity and data security threats continue to evolve and raise the risk of incidents, including breaches, that could affect our operations or compromise our business information or sensitive personal information, including health data. With the ever-changing threat landscape, and while we have implemented security measures to protect our information technology systems and infrastructure, there can be no assurance that such measures will prevent service interruptions or security breaches that could adversely affect our business. We may also need to collect more extensive health-related information from our employees to manage our workforce. If we or our third party partners fail to comply or are alleged to have failed to comply with applicable data protection and privacy laws and regulations, and related employment rules, or if we were to experience a data breach involving personal information, we could be subject to government enforcement actions, fines, or private lawsuits. In addition, our business could be adversely impacted if our ability to transfer personal data outside of the EEA or Switzerland is restricted, which could adversely impact our operating results. Based on previous case law of the EU Court of Justice, we have seen that transfer mechanisms may be declared invalid (e.g., the previous EU-U.S. Privacy Shield which has now been replaced by the EU-U.S. Data Protection Framework). Such decisions may have an impact on our business and compliance costs. On September 8, 2020, the Federal Data Protection and Information Commissioner (FDPIC) of Switzerland issued an opinion concluding that the Swiss-U.S. Privacy Shield Framework does not provide an adequate level of protection for data transfers from Switzerland to the U.S. The FDPIC also found that SCCs may still be legally adequate at an individual level provided that they can pass a risk assessment conducted by the FDPIC. If the level of protection in the U.S. or any other importing country is called into question under the SCCs, this could further impact our ability to transfer data outside of the EU or Switzerland. The UK withdrew from the EU on January 31, 2020, commonly referred to as Brexit.  Marketing authorizations granted through the EU centralized procedure continue to be valid in Northern Ireland by virtue of the Northern Ireland Protocol, but such EU marketing authorizations are not valid in the rest of the UK (England, Wales and Scotland, or collectively Great Britain). EU marketing authorizations existing as of the end of the Brexit transition period on December 31, 2020, were automatically converted into Great Britain marketing authorizations as of January 1, 2021. Until the end of 2023, a marketing authorization for Great Britain can be applied for on an expedited timetable through the UK European Commission Decision Reliance Procedure (ECDRP), after having received a positive opinion from the EMA's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use. Effective January 1, 2024, the ECDRP has been replaced with a new international recognition framework (IRP). ECDRP submissions received before January 1, 2024 will be processed under the existing practices. A Great Britain marketing authorization can alternatively be applied for separately through the standard national level procedure. Although the body of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (Cooperation Agreement) includes general terms which apply to medicinal products, greater detail on sector-specific issues is provided in an Annex to the Agreement. The Annex provides a framework for the recognition of GMP inspections and for the exchange and acceptance of official GMP documents. The regime does not, however, extend to procedures such as batch release certification. Among the changes that will now occur are that Great Britain, comprised of England, Scotland and Wales, will be treated as a third country. Northern Ireland will, with regard to EU regulations, continue to follow the EU regulatory rules. As part of the Cooperation Agreement, the EU and the UK (each, a Party) will recognize GMP inspections carried out by the other Party and the acceptance of official GMP documents issued by the other Party. The Cooperation Agreement also encourages, although it does not oblige, the parties to consult one another on proposals to introduce significant changes to technical regulations or inspection procedures. Among the areas of absence of mutual recognition are batch testing and batch release. The EU continues to apply EU laws that require batch testing and batch release to take place in the EU territory. This means that medicinal products that are tested and released in the UK must be retested and re-released when entering the EU market for commercial use.
Ability to Sell
Total Risks: 6/62 (10%)Below Sector Average
Competition1 | 1.6%
Competition - Risk 1
We face substantial competition, which may result in others discovering, developing or commercializing products before or more successfully than we do.
The development and commercialization of new drug products is highly competitive. We face competition with respect to ganaxolone both for the treatment of CDD and for other indications and will face competition with respect to any other product candidates that we may seek to develop or commercialize in the future, from major pharmaceutical companies, specialty pharmaceutical companies and biotechnology companies worldwide. There are a number of large pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies that currently market and sell products or are pursuing the development of products for the treatment of the disease indications for which we are developing ganaxolone. Some of these competitive products and therapies are based on scientific approaches that are the same as, or similar to, our approach, and others are based on entirely different approaches. For example, there are several companies developing product candidates that target the same GABAA neuroreceptor that we are targeting or that are testing product candidates in the same indications that we are testing. Potential competitors also include academic institutions, government agencies and other public and private research organizations that conduct research, seek patent protection and establish collaborative arrangements for research, development, manufacturing and commercialization. Ganaxolone is presently being developed as an antiepileptic therapeutic. There are a variety of marketed therapies available for these patients. Specifically, there are more than 25 approved AEDs available in the U.S. and worldwide, including the generic products levetiracetam, lamotrigine, carbamazepine, oxcarbazepine, valproic acid and topiramate. Recent market entrants include branded products developed by UCB (including acquisition of Zogenix), Eisai, Jazz Pharmaceuticals (via acquisition of GW Pharmaceuticals), SK Biopharmaceuticals and Sunovion Pharmaceuticals. In addition, there are several drugs in clinical development for the treatment of pediatric orphan epilepsy indications, including compounds being developed by Eisai, Jazz Pharmaceuticals (via acquisition of GW Pharmaceuticals), Longboard Pharmaceuticals, Neurocrine Biosciences, Praxis Precision Medicines, UCB (including acquisition of Zogenix), and Takeda. Many of the approved drugs are well established therapies or products and are widely accepted by physicians, patients and third-party payers. Insurers and other third-party payers may also encourage the use of generic products. These factors may make it difficult for us to achieve market acceptance at desired levels or in a timely manner to ensure viability of our business. More established companies may have a competitive advantage over us due to their greater size, cash flows and institutional experience. Compared to us, many of our competitors may have significantly greater financial, technical and human resources. As a result of these factors, our competitors may obtain regulatory approval of their products before we are able to, which may limit our ability to develop or commercialize ganaxolone. Our competitors may also develop products that are safer, more effective, more widely used and cheaper than ours, and may also be more successful than us in manufacturing and marketing their products. These appreciable advantages could render ganaxolone obsolete or non-competitive before we can recover the expenses of ganaxolone's development and commercialization. Mergers and acquisitions in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries may result in even more resources being concentrated among a smaller number of our competitors. Smaller and other early-stage companies may also prove to be significant competitors, particularly through collaborative arrangements with large and established companies. These third parties compete with us in recruiting and retaining qualified scientific, management and commercial personnel, establishing clinical trial sites and subject registration for clinical trials, as well as in acquiring technologies complementary to, or necessary for, our programs.
Demand1 | 1.6%
Demand - Risk 1
Our continued commercial success depends upon attaining significant market access and acceptance of ZTALMY among physicians, patients, government and private payers and others in the medical community and attaining sufficient reimbursement for ZTALMY and other ganaxolone products.
Even though ZTALMY received FDA and EC approval for CDD, it may not gain market acceptance among physicians, patients, government and private payers, or others in the medical community. Market acceptance of ZTALMY (and of any potential future products we commercialize) depends on a number of factors, including: - clinically and commercially viable product profile as supported by clinical trials;- efficacy and safety of ganaxolone, or ganaxolone administered with other drugs, each as demonstrated in clinical trials and post-marketing experience;- clinical indications for which ganaxolone is approved;- acceptance by physicians and patients of ganaxolone as a safe and effective treatment;- potential and perceived advantages of ganaxolone over alternative treatments;- safety of ganaxolone seen in a broader patient group, including its use outside the approved indications should physicians choose to prescribe for such uses;- prevalence and severity of any side effects and drug interactions with other medications, including other antiseizure medications;- product labeling or product insert requirements of the FDA, EC or comparable foreign regulatory authorities;- restrictions in distribution and use due to controlled substance laws and regulations;- timing of market introduction of ganaxolone as well as competitive products;- cost of treatment in relation to alternative treatments;- availability of coverage and adequate reimbursement and pricing by government and private payers;- ability to manufacture commercial quantities of ZTALMY (or any future products) at a reasonable cost and with sufficient speed to meet commercial demand;- ability to obtain and maintain appropriate state licenses in the states in which we intend to sell ZTALMY or any future products;- ability to successfully defend any challenges to our intellectual property relating to ZTALMY (or any future products);- relative convenience and ease of administration of ZTALMY or any future products;- effectiveness of our sales and marketing strategy and efforts and effective use of promotional resources;- adequate commercial investment; and - stability and continuity of product supply chains. If ZTALMY fails to achieve market acceptance among physicians, patients, government or private payers or others in the medical community, or products or product candidates co-administered with ganaxolone cause AEs, as the case may be, we may not be able to generate significant revenues, which would compromise our ability to become profitable. Many of these matters are beyond our control and are subject to other risks described elsewhere in this "Risk Factors" section. Accordingly, we cannot assure you that we will be able to successfully commercialize or generate revenue from ZTALMY (or any future products).
Sales & Marketing4 | 6.5%
Sales & Marketing - Risk 1
ZTALMY is our first commercial product. If our sales and marketing capabilities to market and sell ZTALMY and other ganaxolone products are not effective, we may be unable to generate meaningful revenue.
ZTALMY is our first commercial product and our commercial leadership continues to support the commercialization of ZTALMY and includes sales, marketing, sales operations, a field force, market access professionals, and supply chain and distribution professionals. We compete for commercial talent with companies that have extensive, well-funded marketing and sales operations and successful products in the market. We have a limited track record with the commercialization of ZTALMY for CDD, which may make it more difficult to attract and retain effective commercial talent. If we are unable to maintain an effective commercial team, we may not be successful in generating meaningful revenue. Even if we are able to maintain an effective commercial team, we may be unable to compete successfully against more established companies.
Sales & Marketing - Risk 2
While ZTALMY has received favorable reimbursement determinations to date from third party payers for its approved indication, adverse changes in reimbursement or failure to obtain favorable reimbursement for future indications, if approved, could harm our business.
Our ability to successfully commercialize ganaxolone depends, in part, on the extent to which coverage and adequate reimbursement for ganaxolone is available from government health administration authorities, including Medicaid, which we expect will be a significant portion of patients prescribed ZTALMY, private health insurers and other organizations. Government authorities and commercial third-party payers, such as private health insurers and health maintenance organizations, determine which medications they will cover, the process for making such decisions, and the reimbursement levels for those medications. Obtaining formulary coverage and favorable reimbursement levels for ZTALMY from government authorities or other third-party commercial payers can be a time consuming and costly process, especially in the early years after regulatory approval. It is expected that we will be required to provide supporting clinical scientific and economic evidence in the form of cost-effectiveness and real-world data, outcomes beyond the data required to obtain marketing approval.  We may not be able to gain acceptance from government health authorities, third-party payers or employer sponsored plans and, even if we are able to do so, the timing and the consistency in payer formulary placement or utilization management may vary greatly from government health authorities, third-party payers and by employer sponsored plans. A primary trend in the U.S. healthcare industry and elsewhere is budget predictability and cost containment. Government authorities and third-party payers have attempted to control costs by limiting access through utilization management controls, formulary placement and reimbursement amounts for particular medications and procedures. Increasingly, third-party payers are requiring that drug companies provide them with predetermined utilization discounts from list prices and are challenging the prices charged for drugs. Third-party payers or PMBs may also seek additional clinical and economic evidence, beyond the data required to obtain marketing approval, which may include demonstrating clinical benefits and value in specific patient populations before covering ganaxolone for those patients. We cannot be sure that formulary placement, coverage and adequate reimbursement will be available for ganaxolone and, if such is available, what hurdles may be put in place for prescribing physicians to navigate. Coverage and reimbursement may impact physician or institutional demand for ganaxolone, and that demand may vary by region or by payer segment. If coverage and reimbursement is not available or is available only at limited levels, we may not be able to successfully commercialize ganaxolone. There may be significant delays in obtaining coverage and reimbursement for newly approved drugs, and coverage may be more limited than the purposes for which the drug is approved by the FDA, EC or comparable foreign regulatory authorities. Moreover, eligibility for coverage and reimbursement does not imply that any drug will be paid for in all cases or at a rate that covers our costs, including research, development, manufacture, sale and distribution. Interim reimbursement levels for new drugs, if applicable, may also not be sufficient to cover our costs and may only be temporary. Reimbursement rates may vary according to the use of the drug and the clinical setting in which it is used, may be based on formulary coverage or reimbursement levels already set for lower cost drugs and may be incorporated into existing payments for other services. Net prices for drugs will be reduced by mandatory discounts or rebates required by Medicaid government healthcare programs and may be reduced by private payers and by any future relaxation of laws that presently restrict imports of drugs from countries where they may be sold at lower prices than in the U.S. Third-party payers and PBMs often rely upon Medicare coverage policy and payment limitations in setting their own coverage and reimbursement policies. Any challenges in obtaining coverage and favorable reimbursement rates from both government-funded and private payers for ZTALMY could have a material adverse effect on our operating results, our ability to raise capital needed to commercialize products and our overall financial condition.
Sales & Marketing - Risk 3
ZTALMY is our first commercial product and we have no other history of commercializing drugs, which may make it difficult to evaluate the success of our business to date and to assess our future viability.
Our operations to date have been largely focused on raising capital and developing ganaxolone in several indications, including undertaking preclinical studies and conducting clinical trials. ZTALMY became available for commercial sale and shipment in the U.S. in the third quarter of 2022, and as such we have only begun to demonstrate our ability to supply ZTALMY for ongoing commercial sale and to conduct sales, marketing and distribution activities necessary for continued successful product commercialization. Consequently, any predictions about our future success or viability may not be as accurate as they could be if we had a longer history of successfully developing and commercializing drugs.
Sales & Marketing - Risk 4
A variety of risks associated with marketing ganaxolone outside of the U.S. could materially adversely affect our business.
We have obtained regulatory approval for ZTALMY for CDD in the EU and plan to seek regulatory approval for ganaxolone in other international jurisdictions. Accordingly, we expect that we will be subject to additional risks related to operating in foreign countries if we obtain the necessary approvals, including: - differing regulatory requirements in foreign countries;- the potential for so-called parallel importing, which is what happens when a local seller, faced with high or higher local prices, opts to import goods from a foreign market (with low or lower prices) rather than buying them locally;- viable pricing awarded in international markets to support commercial investment is required;- unexpected changes in tariffs, trade barriers, price and exchange controls and other regulatory requirements;- economic weakness, including inflation, or political instability in particular foreign economies and markets;- compliance with tax, employment, immigration and labor laws for employees living or traveling abroad;- foreign taxes, including with respect to our Irish subsidiary;- foreign currency fluctuations, which could result in increased operating expenses and reduced revenues, and other obligations incident to doing business in another country;- difficulties staffing and managing foreign operations;- workforce uncertainty in countries where labor unrest is more common than in the U.S.;- challenges enforcing our contractual and intellectual property rights, especially in those foreign countries that do not respect and protect intellectual property rights to the same extent as the U.S.;- production shortages resulting from any events affecting raw material supply or manufacturing capabilities abroad; and - business interruptions resulting from geo-political actions, including war and terrorism. These and other risks associated with our international operations may materially adversely affect our ability to attain or maintain profitable operations.
Production
Total Risks: 5/62 (8%)Below Sector Average
Supply Chain5 | 8.1%
Supply Chain - Risk 1
Our experience manufacturing ganaxolone is limited to the needs of our preclinical studies and clinical trials, as well as limited commercial supplies following FDA approval of ZTALMY for CDD in the U.S. We have limited experience manufacturing ganaxolone on a commercial scale and have no manufacturing facility. We are dependent on third-party manufacturers for the manufacture of ganaxolone drug substance and drug products as well as on third parties for our supply chain, and if we experience problems with any such third parties, the manufacturing and supply of ganaxolone could be delayed.
We do not own or operate facilities for the manufacture of ganaxolone. We currently have no plans to build our own clinical or commercial scale manufacturing capabilities. We currently rely on CMOs for the manufacture of ganaxolone APIs and other CMOs for the production of ganaxolone drug products, including capsules, liquid oral suspension and IV solution, and we rely on CMOs for the manufacture of ganaxolone for commercial use. To meet our projected needs for preclinical and clinical supplies to support our activities for commercial manufacturing, the CMOs with whom we currently work will need to increase the scale of production. We may need to identify additional CMOs for continued production of supply for ganaxolone. Although alternative third-party suppliers with the necessary manufacturing and regulatory expertise and facilities exist, it could be expensive and take a significant amount of time to arrange for alternative suppliers. If we are unable to arrange for alternative third-party manufacturing sources on commercially reasonable terms, in a timely manner or at all, we may not be able to complete development of ganaxolone, or market or distribute ganaxolone. Reliance on third-party manufacturers entails risks to which we would not be subject if we manufactured ganaxolone ourselves, including reliance on the third party for regulatory compliance and quality assurance, the possibility of breach of the manufacturing agreement by the third party because of factors beyond our control, including a failure to synthesize and manufacture ganaxolone, and the possibility of termination or nonrenewal of the manufacturing agreement by the third party, based on its own business priorities, at a time that is costly or damaging to us. In addition, the FDA and other regulatory authorities will require that ganaxolone be manufactured according to cGMP and similar foreign standards. Any failure by our third-party manufacturers to comply with cGMP, meet product specifications or successfully scale up manufacturing processes, including any failure to deliver sufficient quantities of ganaxolone in a timely manner, could lead to a delay in, or failure to obtain, regulatory approval of ganaxolone. In addition, such failure could be the basis for the FDA or other regulatory authorities to issue a warning letter, withdraw approvals for ganaxolone previously granted to us, or take other regulatory or legal action, including recall or seizure of outside supplies of ganaxolone, total or partial suspension of production, suspension of ongoing clinical trials, refusal to approve pending applications or supplemental applications, detention of product, refusal to permit the import or export of products, injunction, or imposing civil and criminal penalties. Any significant disruption in our supplier relationships could harm our business. Any significant delay in the supply of ganaxolone or its key raw materials for an ongoing preclinical study or clinical trial could considerably delay completion of such preclinical study or clinical trial, product testing and potential regulatory approval of ganaxolone. If our manufacturers or we are unable to purchase these key raw materials after regulatory approval has been obtained for ganaxolone, the commercial launch of ganaxolone would be delayed or there would be a shortage in supply, which would impair our ability to generate revenues from the sale of ganaxolone. Ganaxolone drug substance is manufactured by a CMO in Taiwan, and key starting materials, including the regulatory starting material (RSM) are sourced from China. In addition, the current drug substance supply chain sourcing API supply from China and Taiwan is subject to the geopolitical environment, which is difficult to predict and may become less stable, which may put our API supply from that region at risk.
Supply Chain - Risk 2
We may elect to enter into license or collaboration agreements to partner ganaxolone in territories currently retained by us. Our dependence on such relationships may adversely affect our business.
Because we have limited resources, we have and expect that we will continue to enter into license or collaboration agreements with other pharmaceutical or biotechnology companies. Any failure by our partners to perform their obligations or any decision by our partners to terminate these agreements could negatively impact our ability to successfully develop, obtain regulatory approvals for and commercialize ganaxolone. In the event we grant exclusive rights to such partners, we would be precluded from potential commercialization of ganaxolone within the territories in which we have a partner. In addition, any termination of our license or collaboration agreements will terminate the funding we may receive under the relevant license or collaboration agreement and may impair our ability to fund further development efforts and our progress in our development programs. Our commercialization strategy for ganaxolone may depend on our ability to enter into agreements with partners to obtain assistance and funding for the development and potential commercialization of ganaxolone in the territories in which we seek to partner. Despite our efforts, we may be unable to secure license or collaboration agreements or other arrangements that are necessary for us to further develop and commercialize ganaxolone. Supporting diligence activities conducted by potential licensees or collaborators and negotiating the financial and other terms of a license or collaboration agreement are long and complex processes with uncertain results. Even if we are successful in entering into one or more license or collaboration agreements, such agreements may involve greater uncertainty for us, as we would have less control over certain aspects of our partnered programs than we do over our un-partnered programs. We may determine that continuing a license or collaboration under the terms provided is not in our best interest, and we may terminate the license or collaboration. Our potential future partners could delay or terminate their agreements, and as a result ganaxolone may never be successfully commercialized. Further, our potential future partners may develop alternative products or pursue alternative technologies either on their own or in collaboration with others, including our competitors, and the priorities or focus of our partners may shift such that ganaxolone receives less attention or resources than we would like, or they may be terminated altogether. Any such actions by our potential future partners may adversely affect our business prospects and ability to earn revenue. In addition, we could have disputes with our potential future partners, such as the interpretation of terms in our agreements. Any such disagreements could lead to delays in the development or commercialization of ganaxolone or could result in time-consuming and expensive litigation or arbitration, which may not be resolved in our favor.
Supply Chain - Risk 3
If our third-party manufacturers use hazardous and biological materials in a manner that causes injury or violates applicable law, we may be liable for damages.
Our research and development activities involve the controlled use of potentially hazardous substances, including chemical and biological materials by our third-party manufacturers. Our manufacturers are subject to federal, state and local laws and regulations in the U.S. governing the use, manufacture, storage, handling and disposal of medical, radioactive and hazardous materials. We cannot completely eliminate the risk of contamination or injury resulting from medical, radioactive or hazardous materials. As a result of any such contamination or injury we may incur liability or local, city, state or federal authorities may curtail the use of these materials and interrupt our business operations. In the event of an accident, we could be held liable for damages or penalized with fines, and the liability could exceed our resources. We do not have any insurance for liabilities arising from medical radioactive or hazardous materials. Compliance with applicable environmental laws and regulations is expensive, and current or future environmental regulations may impair our research, development and production efforts, which could harm our business, prospects, financial condition or results of operations.
Supply Chain - Risk 4
We rely on third parties to conduct our preclinical studies and clinical trials. If these third parties do not successfully carry out their duties in compliance with contractual terms and/or regulatory requirements or meet expected timelines, our development plans may be adversely affected and we may not be able to obtain regulatory approval for ganaxolone in indications other than CDD.
We rely on third-party CROs to monitor and manage data for our ongoing preclinical and clinical programs. We also rely on third parties to assist in conducting our preclinical studies in accordance with GLP and the Animal Welfare Act requirements, where applicable. We and our CROs are required to comply with federal regulations and GCP, which are international requirements meant to protect the rights and health of patients that are enforced by the FDA, the competent authorities of the EU Member States and comparable foreign regulatory authorities for ganaxolone. Regulatory authorities enforce GCP through periodic inspections of trial sponsors, principal investigators and trial sites. If we or any of our CROs fail to comply with applicable GCP, the clinical data generated in our clinical trials may be deemed unreliable and the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities may require us to perform additional clinical trials before approving our marketing applications. We cannot be certain that upon inspection by a given regulatory authority, such regulatory authority will determine that any of our clinical trials comply with GCP requirements. In addition, our clinical trials must be conducted with product produced under cGMP requirements. Failure to comply with these regulations may require us to repeat or conduct additional preclinical studies and clinical trials, which would delay the regulatory approval process. Although we depend heavily on these parties and have contractual agreements governing their activities, we cannot control them and therefore, we cannot be certain that these third parties will devote sufficient time and resources to our ongoing clinical, nonclinical and preclinical programs. If CROs do not successfully carry out their contractual duties or obligations or meet expected deadlines or if the quality or accuracy of the data they obtain is compromised due to the failure to adhere to our protocols, regulatory requirements or for other reasons, our preclinical studies and clinical trials may be extended, delayed or terminated and we may not be able to obtain regulatory approval for or successfully commercialize ganaxolone. As a result, our results of operations and the commercial prospects for ganaxolone would be harmed, our costs could increase and our ability to generate revenue could be delayed. For example, we announced in February 2022 a product supply interruption for our IV ganaxolone clinical supplies. Routine monitoring of stability batches of IV clinical supply material showed visible particulates of aluminum phosphate in the drug solution, which led to a pause in recruitment for the RAISE trial. In May 2022, we announced that the trial had resumed utilizing new batches of the current IV formulation of ganaxolone, and we implemented a reduced shelf life of 12 months. In agreement with the FDA, ganaxolone clinical supplies with the original buffer IV formulation would be stored under refrigerated conditions for the entire duration of clinical use. The shelf life of the original buffer IV formulation was updated to 18 months under refrigerated conditions, based on stability data which was submitted in the subsequent IND amendment in February 2023. Subsequently, we manufactured the IV ganaxolone formulation with a new buffer and are targeting a shelf life of 24 months at room temperature, pending the results of ongoing stability monitoring. The FDA agreed that in principle a buffer change in the ganaxolone IV formulation is acceptable but requested that additional information be submitted prior to use of the new buffer formulation in clinical trials. We submitted an IND amendment to the FDA in May 2023. All sites have been resupplied with the new buffer formulation, which we believe will not require refrigeration and is expected to have a shelf life of 24 months. If any of our relations terminate, switching or adding additional CROs would involve additional cost and require management time and focus. Identifying, qualifying and managing performance of third-party service providers can be difficult, time consuming and cause delays in our development programs. In addition, there is a natural transition period when a new CRO commences work. If any of our relationships with our third-party CROs terminate, we may not be able to enter into arrangements with alternative CROs or to do so on commercially reasonable terms. As a result, delays my occur, which can materially impact our ability to meet our desired development timelines. In addition, the use of third-party service providers requires us to disclose our proprietary information to these parties, which could increase the risk that this information will be misappropriated. We currently have a small number of employees, which limits the internal resources we have available to monitor our third-party providers. To the extent we are unable to identify and successfully manage the performance of third-party service providers, our business may be adversely affected. Though we carefully manage our relationships with our CROs, there can be no assurance that we will not encounter challenges or delays in the future or that these delays or challenges will not have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition and prospects.
Supply Chain - Risk 5
We may not be able to obtain or maintain orphan drug exclusivity for ganaxolone across all indications and markets, which could limit the potential profitability of ganaxolone.
Regulatory authorities in some jurisdictions, including the U.S. and Europe, may designate drugs for relatively small patient populations as orphan drugs. Under the Orphan Drug Act, the FDA may designate a product as an orphan drug if it is a drug intended to treat a rare disease or condition, which is generally defined as a patient population of fewer than 200,000 people in the U.S. Generally, if a product with an orphan drug designation subsequently receives the first marketing approval for an indication for which it receives the designation, then the product is entitled to a period of marketing exclusivity that precludes the FDA from approving another marketing application for the same drug for the same indication for the exclusivity period except in limited situations. For purposes of small molecule drugs, the FDA defines "same drug" as a drug that contains the same active moiety and is intended for the same use as the drug in question. A designated orphan drug may not receive orphan drug exclusivity if it is approved for a use that is broader than the indication for which it received orphan designation. We have received orphan drug designation in the U.S. for treating Infantile Spasms, SE, CDD, TSC, PCDH19-RE, Fragile X Syndrome and LGS with ganaxolone and expect that we may in the future pursue orphan drug designations for ganaxolone for one or more additional indications. However, obtaining an orphan drug designation can be difficult and we may not be successful in doing so for additional ganaxolone indications. Orphan drug exclusivity for a product candidate may not effectively protect the product from the competition of different drugs for the same condition, which could be approved during the exclusivity period. In addition, after an orphan drug is approved, the FDA could subsequently approve another application for the same drug for the same indication if the FDA concludes that the later drug is shown to be safer, more effective or makes a major contribution to patient care. Orphan drug exclusive marketing rights in the U.S. also may be lost if the FDA later determines that the request for designation was materially defective or if the manufacturer is unable to assure sufficient quantity of the drug to meet the needs of patients with the rare disease or condition. The failure to obtain or maintain an orphan drug designation for any indication of ganaxolone that we may develop, or the inability to obtain or maintain orphan drug exclusivity could reduce our ability to make sufficient sales of ganaxolone to balance our expenses incurred to develop it, which would have a negative impact on our operational results and financial condition. In the EU, we have received orphan designation for treating CDD and TSC with ganaxolone. Orphan designation would entitle us to receive ten years of orphan market exclusivity in the EU, but only if the product continues to meet the orphan designation criteria when the marketing authorization is granted. If a similar medicinal product (i.e., a medicinal product with an identical active substance, or an active substance with the same principal molecular structural features and which acts via the same mechanism) receives marketing authorization for the same indication before we receive marketing authorization, the other product's orphan market exclusivity may prevent ganaxolone from receiving marketing authorization, unless we are able to demonstrate that ganaxolone is safer, more effective or otherwise clinically superior. In the EU, if we obtain and maintain orphan designation for ganaxolone upon marketing authorization, the European Commission could subsequently approve a similar medicinal product for the same indication if the European Commission, after assessment by the EMA, concludes that the similar medicinal product is safer, more effective or otherwise clinically superior. Orphan market exclusivity rights in the EU may also be lost if we are unable to supply sufficient quantities of the product. A forthcoming revision of the EU pharmaceutical legislation aims to change the current orphan market exclusivity system. The proposal intends to reduce the orphan market exclusivity period. It is currently uncertain if the proposal will be adopted in its current form, and it is uncertain if and when the revised legislation would enter into force. The failure to obtain or maintain an orphan drug designation for any indication of ganaxolone that we may develop, or the inability to obtain or maintain orphan drug exclusivity could reduce our ability to make sufficient sales of ganaxolone to balance our expenses incurred to develop it, which would have a negative impact on our operational results and financial condition.
Macro & Political
Total Risks: 2/62 (3%)Below Sector Average
Natural and Human Disruptions2 | 3.2%
Natural and Human Disruptions - Risk 1
We have identified conditions and events that raise substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern.
We have incurred significant operating losses since our inception, including a net loss of $141.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2023. As of December 31, 2023, we had an accumulated deficit of $571.9 million. Our prior losses, combined with expected future losses, have had and will continue to have an adverse effect on our stockholders' equity and working capital. Our losses have resulted principally from costs incurred in our research and development activities. We anticipate that our operating losses will substantially increase over the next several years as we execute our plan to expand our research, development and commercialization activities of ganaxolone. Our continuation as a going concern is dependent on our ability to (1) generate sufficient cash flows from operations to meet our obligations, (2) obtain additional debt/equity financing, and/or (3) execute strategic transactions, all as may be required. In addition, we expect to continue to incur significant expenses in connection with the continued commercialization of ZTALMY. Because of the numerous risks and uncertainties associated with developing pharmaceutical products, we are unable to predict the extent of any future losses or whether or when we will become profitable, if ever. The net losses we incur may fluctuate significantly from quarter to quarter and year to year, such that a period-to-period comparison of our results of operations may not be a good indication of our future performance. In any particular quarter or quarters, our operating results could be below the expectations of securities analysts or investors, which could cause our stock price to decline. As of December 31, 2023, our Cash and cash equivalents and Short-term investments of $150.3 million, excluding the $15.0 million liquidity requirement associated with our Note Payable, was not sufficient to fund operations for the one-year period after the date hereof. These factors raise substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern. As a result, our independent registered public accounting firm has included an explanatory paragraph in its report on our audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2023 related to our ability to continue as a going concern. If we are unable to continue as a going concern, we may have to liquidate our assets and may receive less than the value at which those assets are carried on our financial statements, and it is likely that investors will lose all or a part of their investment. Future reports of our independent registered public accounting firm may contain statements expressing substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern. If we seek additional financing to fund our business activities and there remains substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern, investors or other financing sources may be unwilling to provide funding to us on commercially reasonable terms, if at all.
Natural and Human Disruptions - Risk 2
Pandemics, epidemics, or outbreaks could adversely affect our business and our ability to conduct and complete clinical trials.
COVID-19 affected our clinical operations and timelines. For example, our Randomized Therapy In Status Epilepticus (RAISE) trial for RSE is conducted in hospitals, primarily intensive care units in academic medical centers, which experienced high rates of COVID-19 admissions. Several of these sites participating in the RAISE trial experienced COVID-related difficulties, including staff turnover and the need to devote significant resources to patients with COVID-19, which resulted in site initiation and enrollment delays for the RAISE trial. Several of the sites participating in the RAISE trial continue to encounter COVID-related setbacks, including staff turnover and the need to devote significant resources for patients with COVID-19. If a patient participating in one of our clinical trials contracts COVID-19, this could negatively impact the data readouts from these trials; for example, the patient may be unable to participate further (or may have to limit participation) in our clinical trial, the patient may show a different efficacy assessment than if the patient had not been infected, or the patient could experience an AE that could be attributed to our product candidate. There is also a risk that clinical supplies of our product candidates may be significantly delayed or may become unavailable as a result of COVID-19, or other pandemics, epidemics or outbreaks, and the resulting impact on our suppliers' labor forces and operations, including as a result of governmental restrictions on business operations and the movement of people and goods in an effort to curtail the spread of the virus. There can be no assurance that we would be able to timely implement any mitigation plans. Disruptions in our supply chain, whether as a result of restricted travel, quarantine requirements or otherwise, could negatively impact clinical supplies of our product candidates, which could materially adversely impact our clinical trial and development timelines.
See a full breakdown of risk according to category and subcategory. The list starts with the category with the most risk. Click on subcategories to read relevant extracts from the most recent report.

FAQ

What are “Risk Factors”?
Risk factors are any situations or occurrences that could make investing in a company risky.
    The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires that publicly traded companies disclose their most significant risk factors. This is so that potential investors can consider any risks before they make an investment.
      They also offer companies protection, as a company can use risk factors as liability protection. This could happen if a company underperforms and investors take legal action as a result.
        It is worth noting that smaller companies, that is those with a public float of under $75 million on the last business day, do not have to include risk factors in their 10-K and 10-Q forms, although some may choose to do so.
          How do companies disclose their risk factors?
          Publicly traded companies initially disclose their risk factors to the SEC through their S-1 filings as part of the IPO process.
            Additionally, companies must provide a complete list of risk factors in their Annual Reports (Form 10-K) or (Form 20-F) for “foreign private issuers”.
              Quarterly Reports also include a section on risk factors (Form 10-Q) where companies are only required to update any changes since the previous report.
                According to the SEC, risk factors should be reported concisely, logically and in “plain English” so investors can understand them.
                  How can I use TipRanks risk factors in my stock research?
                  Use the Risk Factors tab to get data about the risk factors of any company in which you are considering investing.
                    You can easily see the most significant risks a company is facing. Additionally, you can find out which risk factors a company has added, removed or adjusted since its previous disclosure. You can also see how a company’s risk factors compare to others in its sector.
                      Without reading company reports or participating in conference calls, you would most likely not have access to this sort of information, which is usually not included in press releases or other public announcements.
                        A simplified analysis of risk factors is unique to TipRanks.
                          What are all the risk factor categories?
                          TipRanks has identified 6 major categories of risk factors and a number of subcategories for each. You can see how these categories are broken down in the list below.
                          1. Financial & Corporate
                          • Accounting & Financial Operations - risks related to accounting loss, value of intangible assets, financial statements, value of intangible assets, financial reporting, estimates, guidance, company profitability, dividends, fluctuating results.
                          • Share Price & Shareholder Rights – risks related to things that impact share prices and the rights of shareholders, including analyst ratings, major shareholder activity, trade volatility, liquidity of shares, anti-takeover provisions, international listing, dual listing.
                          • Debt & Financing – risks related to debt, funding, financing and interest rates, financial investments.
                          • Corporate Activity and Growth – risks related to restructuring, M&As, joint ventures, execution of corporate strategy, strategic alliances.
                          2. Legal & Regulatory
                          • Litigation and Legal Liabilities – risks related to litigation/ lawsuits against the company.
                          • Regulation – risks related to compliance, GDPR, and new legislation.
                          • Environmental / Social – risks related to environmental regulation and to data privacy.
                          • Taxation & Government Incentives – risks related to taxation and changes in government incentives.
                          3. Production
                          • Costs – risks related to costs of production including commodity prices, future contracts, inventory.
                          • Supply Chain – risks related to the company’s suppliers.
                          • Manufacturing – risks related to the company’s manufacturing process including product quality and product recalls.
                          • Human Capital – risks related to recruitment, training and retention of key employees, employee relationships & unions labor disputes, pension, and post retirement benefits, medical, health and welfare benefits, employee misconduct, employee litigation.
                          4. Technology & Innovation
                          • Innovation / R&D – risks related to innovation and new product development.
                          • Technology – risks related to the company’s reliance on technology.
                          • Cyber Security – risks related to securing the company’s digital assets and from cyber attacks.
                          • Trade Secrets & Patents – risks related to the company’s ability to protect its intellectual property and to infringement claims against the company as well as piracy and unlicensed copying.
                          5. Ability to Sell
                          • Demand – risks related to the demand of the company’s goods and services including seasonality, reliance on key customers.
                          • Competition – risks related to the company’s competition including substitutes.
                          • Sales & Marketing – risks related to sales, marketing, and distribution channels, pricing, and market penetration.
                          • Brand & Reputation – risks related to the company’s brand and reputation.
                          6. Macro & Political
                          • Economy & Political Environment – risks related to changes in economic and political conditions.
                          • Natural and Human Disruptions – risks related to catastrophes, floods, storms, terror, earthquakes, coronavirus pandemic/COVID-19.
                          • International Operations – risks related to the global nature of the company.
                          • Capital Markets – risks related to exchange rates and trade, cryptocurrency.
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