Mosaic Co (MOS) Risk Analysis

We are a global business with substantial assets located outside of North America. Our operations in Brazil, China, India and Paraguay are fundamental to our business. We have a majority interest in the joint venture entity operating the Miski Mayo Mine that supplies phosphate rock to us. Volatile economic, market and political conditions may have a negative impact on our operations, operating results and financial condition. In addition, unfavorable changes in trade protection laws, policies and measures, or governmental actions and policies and other regulatory requirements affecting trade and the pricing and sourcing of our raw materials, may also have a negative impact on our operations, operating results and financial condition. Natural resource extraction is an important part of the economy in Peru and, in the past, there have been protests against other natural resource operations in Peru. There remain numerous social conflicts that exist within the natural resource extraction sector in Peru, and there is potential for active protests against natural resource extraction companies. If the Government of Peru's proactive efforts to address the social and environmental issues surrounding natural resource activities are not successful, protests could extend to or impact the Miski Mayo Mine and adversely affect our interest in the Miski Mayo joint venture or the supply of phosphate rock to us from the mine.

Mining activities in some parts of the world can result in potential seismic events or can increase the likelihood or potential severity of a seismic event. Our Esterhazy mine and Louisiana facilities have experienced minor seismic events from time to time. A significant seismic event at one our facilities or mines could result in serious injuries or death, or damage to or flooding of operations, or damage to adjoining properties or facilities of unrelated third parties. Geologic features may affect the integrity of our impoundments, particularly in central Florida. Our efforts to deploy new technologies to identify and repair features to mitigate impacts and risk may not be successful, adversely impacting our operations or could cause us to incur significant costs.

Our primary foreign currency exposures are the Canadian dollar and Brazilian real. The functional currency for our Brazilian subsidiaries is the Brazilian real. However, we finance our Brazilian inventory purchases with U.S. dollar-denominated liabilities. The functional currency of several of our Canadian entities is the Canadian dollar. For those entities, sales are primarily denominated in U.S. dollars, but the costs are paid principally in Canadian dollars. Canadian entities have significant U.S. dollar denominated intercompany loans and U.S. entities, with the U.S. dollar as functional currency, have Brazilian real denominated loans. During periods of local or global economic crises, local currencies may be devalued significantly against the U.S. dollar. During times of a strengthening dollar, our net earnings can be reduced due to transaction currency losses arising from these exposures of U.S. dollar denominated liabilities held in the Brazilian and Canadian entities and Brazilian real denominated assets held in U.S. entities. To reduce economic risk and volatility on expected cash flows that are denominated in the Canadian dollar and Brazilian real, we use financial instruments that may include forward contracts, options or collars when unable to naturally offset the exposures.

Various governmental initiatives to limit greenhouse gas emissions are under way or under consideration around the world. These initiatives could restrict our operating activities, require us to make changes in our operating activities that would increase our operating costs, reduce our efficiency or limit our output, require us to make capital improvements to our facilities, increase our energy, raw material and transportation costs or limit their availability, or otherwise adversely affect our results of operations, liquidity or capital resources, and these effects could be material to us. Governmental greenhouse gas emission initiatives include, among others, the December 2015 agreement (the "Paris Agreement") which was the outcome of the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ("UNFCCC"). The Paris Agreement, which was signed by nearly 200 nations, including the U.S. and Canada, entered into force in late 2016 and sets out a goal of limiting the average rise in temperatures for this century to below 2 degrees Celsius. Each signatory is expected to develop its own plan (referred to as a Nationally Determined Contribution, or "NDC") for reaching that goal. The U.S. withdrew from the Paris Agreement in January 2025. Various legislative or regulatory initiatives relating to greenhouse gases have been adopted or considered by the U.S. Congress, the EPA or various states and those initiatives already adopted may be used to implement a U.S. NDC. Additionally, in the future, more stringent laws and regulations may be enacted to accomplish the goals set out in the NDC. Brazil ratified the Paris Agreement in September 2016, committing to an NDC that includes economy-wide greenhouse gas reduction targets by 2035. The NDC further commits to achieving climate neutrality in 2060. Complete details surrounding Brazil's plan for achieving the greenhouse gas emissions reductions and climate neutrality are uncertain. The government of Brazil may intervene with new or different policy instruments to meet the goals set out in the 2024 NDC. Canada's intended NDC aims to achieve significant greenhouse gas emissions reductions. The Canadian federal government has also introduced legislation establishing a long-term target of "net-zero" greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. More stringent laws and regulations may be enacted to accomplish the goals set out in Canada's NDC and Canada's own long-term emissions reduction targets. In March 2024, the SEC issued final rules on climate-related disclosures that would require disclosure of extensive detailed climate-related information by domestic and foreign registrants. Following legal challenges consolidated in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, the SEC issued a voluntary stay of the climate rules. In March 2025, the SEC announced that it would end its defense of the climate-related disclosures. In September 2025, the Eight Circuit continued to hold the litigation in abeyance, pending definitive action by the SEC on the climate rules. The Company is monitoring the SEC's climate-related disclosure standards and recently enacted standards in the European Union and California on climate change disclosure and is taking necessary steps to plan for the anticipated or adopted disclosure requirements. It is possible that such legislation and other future legislation or regulation addressing climate change, including the Paris Agreement or any new international agreements, could adversely affect our operating activities, energy, raw material and transportation costs, results of operations, liquidity or capital resources, and these effects could be material or adversely impact our competitive advantage. In addition, to the extent climate change restrictions imposed in countries where our competitors operate such as India, China, Russia, Belarus or Morocco are less stringent than in the U.S., Canada or Brazil, our competitors could gain cost or other competitive advantages over us.

Under accounting principles generally accepted in the U.S. ("GAAP"), we review goodwill for impairment on an annual basis or more frequently if events or circumstances indicate that their carrying value may not be recoverable. Other long-lived assets, including property, plant and equipment, are reviewed if events or circumstances indicate that their carrying value may not be recoverable. The process of impairment testing involves a number of judgments and estimates made by management, including the fair values of assets and liabilities, future cash flows, our interpretation of current economic indicators and market conditions, overall economic conditions and our strategic operational plans with regard to our business units. If the judgments and estimates used in our analysis are not realized or change due to external factors, then actual results may not be consistent with these judgments and estimates, and our goodwill and intangible assets may become impaired in future periods. If our goodwill or long-lived assets are determined to be impaired in the future, we may be required to record non-cash charges to earnings during the period in which the impairment is determined, which could be significant and have an adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. We have, in the past, and may in the future, be required to write down the value of our goodwill or other long-lived assets, and such future write downs could be material.

We hold minority ownership interests in other companies that are not controlled by us. The operations and results of Ma'aden and some other companies are significant to us, and their operations can affect earnings. Because we do not control these companies either at the board or stockholder levels and because local laws in foreign jurisdictions and contractual obligations may place restrictions on monetary distributions by these companies, we cannot ensure that these companies will operate efficiently, pay dividends or generally follow the desires of our management by virtue of our board or stockholder representation. As a result, these companies may contribute less than anticipated to our earnings and cash flow, negatively impacting our results of operations and liquidity. In addition, our investment in Ma'aden is subject to stock-market volatility, and declines in the market value of its publicly traded shares could reduce the value of our investment and negatively impact our results of operations and liquidity.

Our businesses are affected by fluctuations in market prices for our products, the purchase price of key inputs to operations, freight and shipping costs, foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates. We periodically enter into derivatives and forward purchase contracts to mitigate some of these risks. However, our strategy may not be successful in minimizing our exposure to these fluctuations. See "Market Risk" in our Management's Analysis and Note 15 of our Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements which sections are incorporated herein by reference.

Our most important products are concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, including diammonium phosphate, or DAP, monoammonium phosphate, or MAP, MicroEssentials and muriate of potash, or MOP. We sell most of our DAP, MAP and MOP as global commodities. Our sales of these products face intense global competition from other crop nutrient producers. Changes in competitors' production or shifts in their marketing focus have in the past significantly affected both the prices at which we sell our products and the volumes that we sell, and are likely to continue to do so in the future. Increases in the global supply of DAP, MAP and MOP or competitors' increased sales into regions in which we have significant sales could adversely affect our prices and volumes. Competitors and new entrants in the markets for both concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and potash have in recent years expanded capacity, or begun, or announced plans, to expand capacity or build new facilities. The extent to which current global or local economic and financial conditions, changes in global or local economic and financial conditions, or other factors may cause delays or cancellation of some of these ongoing or planned projects, or result in the acceleration of existing or new projects, is unclear. In addition, certain of our products sold to China may be subject to additional tariffs due to ongoing trade tensions between China and the U.S. The level of exports by Chinese producers of concentrated phosphate crop nutrients depends to a significant extent on Chinese government actions to curb exports through, among other measures, prohibitive export taxes at times when the government believes it desirable to assure ample domestic supplies of concentrated phosphate crop nutrients to stimulate grain and oilseed production. The other member of Canpotex is among our competitors who may, in the future, independently expand its potash production capacity at a time when each Canpotex member's respective shares of Canpotex sales is based upon that member's respective proven peaking capacity for producing potash. When a Canpotex member expands its production capacity, the new capacity is added to that member's proven peaking capacity based on a proving run at the maximum production level. Alternatively, Canpotex members may elect to rely on an independent engineering firm and approved protocols to calculate their proven peaking capacity. Antitrust and competition laws prohibit the members of Canpotex from coordinating their production decisions, including the timing of their respective proving runs. Worldwide potash production levels could exceed then-current market demand, resulting in an oversupply of potash and lower potash prices. All of the foregoing events are beyond our control. The effects of any of these events occurring could be materially adverse to our results of operations.

The use of crop nutrients is seasonal and varies based on application rates. Farmers tend to apply crop nutrients during two short application periods, the strongest one in the spring, before planting, and the other in the fall, after harvest. As a result, the strongest demand for our products typically occurs during the spring planting season, with a second period of strong demand following the fall harvest. In contrast, we generally produce our products throughout the year. As a result, we and our customers generally build inventories during the low demand periods of the year in order to provide timely product availability during the peak sales seasons. The seasonality of crop nutrient demand results in our sales volumes and net sales typically being the highest during the North American spring season and our working capital requirements typically being the highest just prior to the start of the spring season. Our quarterly financial results can vary significantly from one year to the next due to weather-related shifts in planting schedules and purchasing patterns. If seasonal demand exceeds our projections, we will not have enough product, which would limit our profitability. If seasonal demand is less than we expect, we will have excess inventory and higher working capital and liquidity requirements. The degree of seasonality of our business can change significantly from year to year due to conditions in the agricultural industry and other factors.