Lloyds Banking (LYG) Risk Factors

The determination of the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”) in any given year of whether the Company can or should pay a dividend on its ordinary shares, or the amount of such dividend, is subject to a number of factors. In addition, specific measures, have been, and may continue to be taken by regulators to restrict distributions for example in times of economic uncertainty. The Board must determine the optimum level of investment to foster growth responsibly and to fund investment initiatives in the business, including organic growth or growth through acquisitions as part of its growth strategy, as well as the appropriate level of capital for the Group to retain to meet current and evolving regulatory requirements and to cover uncertainties. These determinations will change year to year based on the performance of the Group’s business in general, factors affecting its financial position (including capital, funding, liquidity and leverage), the economic environment in which the Group operates, the contractual terms of certain of the Group’s regulatory capital securities and other factors outside of the Group’s control, which could arise as a result of the crystallisation of credit-related risks, regulatory and legal risks, business and economic risks, operational risks, financial soundness-related risks and other risks described herein, many of which may impact the amount of capital that is generated over the course of the year. The Board’s decisions in relation to these matters will have an impact on the ability of the Company to pay a dividend on its ordinary shares in any given year.

Rating agencies regularly evaluate the Group and the Company, and their ratings of longer-term debt are based on a number of factors which can change over time, including the Group’s financial strength as well as factors not entirely within its control, such as conditions affecting the financial services industry generally, and the legal and regulatory frameworks affecting its legal structure, business activities and the rights of its creditors. In light of the difficulties in the financial services industry and the financial markets, there can be no assurance that the Group or the Company will maintain their current ratings. The credit rating agencies may also revise the ratings methodologies applicable to issuers within a particular industry or political or economic region. If credit rating agencies perceive there to be adverse changes in the factors affecting an issuer’s credit rating, including by virtue of change to applicable ratings methodologies, the credit rating agencies may downgrade, suspend or withdraw the ratings assigned to an issuer and/or its securities. Downgrades of the Group’s longer-term credit rating could lead to additional collateral posting and cash outflow, significantly increase its borrowing costs, limit its issuance capacity in the capital markets and weaken the Group’s competitive position in certain markets.

Liquidity and funding continues to remain a key area of focus for the Group and the industry as a whole. Like all major banks, the Group is dependent on confidence in the short and long-term wholesale funding markets. The Group relies on customer savings and transmission balances, as well as ongoing access to the global wholesale funding markets to meet its funding needs. The ability of the Group to gain access to wholesale and retail funding sources on satisfactory economic terms is subject to a number of factors outside its control, such as liquidity constraints, general market conditions, regulatory requirements, the encouraged or mandated repatriation of deposits by foreign wholesale or central bank depositors and the level of confidence in the UK banking system. The Group’s profitability or solvency could be adversely affected if access to liquidity and funding is constrained, made more expensive for a prolonged period of time or if the Group experiences an unusually high and unforeseen level of withdrawals. In such circumstances, the Group may not be in a position to continue to operate or meet its regulatory minimum liquidity requirements without additional funding support, which it may be unable to access (including government and central bank facilities). The Group is also subject to the risk of deterioration of the commercial soundness and/or perceived soundness of other financial services institutions within and outside the UK. Financial services institutions that deal with each other are interrelated as a result of trading, investment, clearing, counterparty and other relationships. This presents systemic risk and may adversely affect financial intermediaries, such as clearing agencies, clearing houses, banks, securities firms and exchanges with which the Group interacts on a daily basis, any of which could have a material adverse effect on the Group’s ability to raise new funding. A default by, or even concerns about the financial resilience of, one or more financial services institutions could lead to further significant systemic liquidity problems, or losses or defaults by other financial institutions, which could have a material adverse effect on the Group’s results of operations, financial condition or prospects. Corporate and institutional counterparties may also seek to reduce aggregate credit exposures to the Group (or to all banks) which could increase the Group’s cost of funding and limit its access to liquidity. The funding structure employed by the Group may also prove to be inefficient, thus giving rise to a level of funding cost where the cumulative costs are not sustainable over the longer term. In addition, medium-term growth in the Group’s lending activities will rely, in part, on the availability of retail deposit funding on appropriate terms, which is dependent on a variety of factors outside the Group’s control, such as general macroeconomic conditions and market volatility, the confidence of retail depositors in the economy, the financial services industry and the Group, as well as the availability and extent of deposit guarantees. Increases in the cost of retail deposit funding will impact on the Group’s margins and affect profit, and a lack of availability of retail deposit funding could have a material adverse effect on its future growth. Any loss in consumer confidence in the Group could significantly increase the amount of retail deposit withdrawals in a short period of time. See “Economic and Financial Risks - The Group’s businesses are subject to inherent and indirect risks arising from general macroeconomic conditions in the UK in particular, but also in the Eurozone, the U.S., Asia and globally" The Group makes use of central bank funding schemes such as the Bank of England’s Term Funding Scheme with additional incentives for SMEs (the "TFSME"). Following the closure of this scheme in 2021, the Group will have to replace matured drawings in 2025-2027, which could cause an increased dependence on term funding issuances. If the wholesale funding markets were to suffer stress or central bank provision of liquidity to the financial markets is abruptly curtailed, or the Group’s credit ratings are downgraded, it is likely that wholesale funding will prove more difficult to obtain. Any of the refinancing or liquidity risks mentioned above, in isolation or in concert, could have a material adverse effect on the Group’s results or operations and its ability to meet its financial obligations as they fall due.

The Group has exposures to many different products, counterparties, obligors and other contractual relationships and the credit quality of its exposures can have a significant impact on its earnings. Credit risk exposures are categorised as either “retail” or “corporate” and reflect the risks inherent in the Group’s lending and lending-related activities and its insurance business primarily in respect of investment holdings and exposures to reinsurers. Adverse changes in the credit quality of the Group’s UK and/or international borrowers and counterparties or collateral held in support of exposures, or in their behaviour or businesses, may reduce the value of the Group’s assets and materially increase its write-downs and allowances for impairment losses. Credit risk can be affected by a range of factors outside the Group’s control, which include but are not limited to an adverse economic environment, the effect of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU and the operation of the EU-UK TCA, any adverse consequences resulting from the unwinding of the UK Government's COVID-19 support measures, increased unemployment, reduced UK and global consumer and/or government spending and benefits and changes in consumer and customer demands and requirements, reduced income levels, reduced corporate profits, high and persistent inflation (including that driven by supply chain issues, labour shortages and rising energy costs), increasing and / or sustained high interest rates, changes in the credit rating of individual counterparties, over-indebtedness and the debt levels of individual contractual counterparties, increased personal or corporate insolvency levels, changes to insolvency regimes which make it harder to enforce against counterparties, counterparty challenges to the interpretation or validity of contractual arrangements, reduced asset values, falling stock and bond/other financial markets, changes in interest rates or foreign exchange rates, an increase in credit spreads, negative reputational impact or direct campaigns which adversely impact customers, industries or sectors and any external factors of a political, legislative, environmental or regulatory nature, including changes in accounting rules and changes to tax legislation and rates; noting that some of the above factors have been materially heightened by the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, the Group has exposure to concentration risk where its business activities focus particularly on a single obligor, related/connected group of obligors or a similar type of customer (borrower, sovereign, financial institution or central counterparty), product, industrial sector or geographic location, including the UK. The Group’s credit exposure includes residential mortgage lending (in the UK and, to a lesser extent, the Netherlands) and commercial real estate lending, including lending secured against secondary and tertiary commercial property assets in the UK. As a result, decreases in residential or commercial property values, reduced rental payments and/or increases in tenant defaults are likely to lead to higher impairment charges, which could materially affect the Group’s results of operations, financial condition or prospects. The COVID-19 pandemic initially led to some uncertainty in asset valuations and, whilst this may persist for some time, policy support and a sharp rise in accumulated private sector savings may be contributing to unsustainable asset valuation growth in some markets. Growth in UK house prices has been especially strong; raising the risk that subsequent revaluations could have potentially negative consequences for the Group. Additionally, COVID-19 has led to, and may lead to as yet unknown, structural changes in the risk profile of a number of counterparties and/or sectors, including but not limited to commercial real estate, retail, hospitality, leisure and transportation, driven largely by evolving changes in consumer behaviour, working patterns, supply chains, government policy and infrastructure. The Group also has significant credit exposure to certain individual counterparties in higher risk and cyclical asset classes and sectors (such as commercial real estate, financial intermediation, manufacturing, leveraged lending, oil and gas and related sectors, hotels, commodities trading, automotive and related sectors, construction, agriculture, consumer-related sectors (such as retail, passenger transport and leisure), house builders and outsourcing services). The Group’s retail customer portfolios will remain strongly linked to the UK economic environment, with house price deterioration, unemployment increases, inflationary pressures, consumer over-indebtedness and prolonged low or rising interest rates among the factors that may impact secured and unsecured retail credit exposures. Deterioration in used vehicle prices, including as a result of changing consumer demand or the transition of the motor sector from vehicles with internal combustion engines to electric vehicles, could result in increased provisions and/or losses and/or accelerated depreciation charges. In addition, climate change is likely to have a significant impact on many of the Group’s customers, as well as on various industry sectors that the Group operates in. There is a risk that borrower and counterparty credit quality and collateral / asset valuations could be adversely affected as a result of these changes. See also “Business and Operational Risks - The Group is subject to the emerging risks associated with climate change”. The Group’s corporate lending portfolio also contains substantial exposure to large and mid-sized, public and private companies. In addition to exposures to sectors that have experienced cyclical weakness in recent years, the portfolio also contains exposures to sectors that have been significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, most notably consumer facing sectors such as travel, transportation, non-essential retail and hospitality. These exposures may give rise to single name concentration and risk capital exposure. The Group's corporate and financial institution portfolios are also susceptible to "fallen angel" risk, that is, the probability of significant default increases following material unexpected events, and to risks related to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in the potential for large losses. As in the UK, the Group’s lending business overseas is also exposed to a small number of long-term customer relationships and these single name concentrations place the Group at risk of loss should default occur. Any disruption to the liquidity or transparency of the financial markets may result in the Group’s inability to sell or syndicate securities, loans or other instruments or positions held (including through underwriting), thereby leading to concentrations in these positions. These concentrations could expose the Group to losses if the mark-to-market value of the securities, loans or other instruments or positions declines causing the Group to take write-downs. Moreover, the inability to reduce the Group’s positions not only increases the market and credit risks associated with such positions, but also increases the level of risk-weighted assets on the Group’s balance sheet, thereby increasing its capital requirements and funding costs, all of which could materially adversely affect the Group’s results of operations, financial condition or prospects. Providing support to customers under the COVID-19 government schemes meant that the Group extended its lending risk appetite in line with the various scheme guidelines at the time and, despite the protection offered by the UK Government’s or by the Bank of England’s guarantees, as applicable, in respect of the schemes, this may lead to additional losses. These schemes (Bounce Back Loans Scheme ("BBLS"), Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme ("CBILS") and Coronavirus Large Business Interruption Loan Scheme ("CLBILS")) closed to new applications on 31 March 2021. Repayments on government lending scheme loans commenced from the second quarter of 2021. However, BBLS benefit from Pay As You Grow options which may materially delay repayments through, for example, extended payment holidays, and have the potential to delay recognition of customer financial difficulties. With the exception of COVID-19 related payment holidays provided to retail customers and lending provided through certain government support schemes, including the BBLS (which provided support of up to £50,000 for smaller businesses) in respect of which no credit assessment was undertaken, all lending decisions, and decisions related to other exposures (including, but not limited to, undrawn commitments, derivative, equity, contingent and/or settlement risks), are dependent on the Group’s assessment of each customer’s ability to repay and the value of any underlying security. Such assessments may also take into account future forecasts, which may be less reliable due to the uncertainty of their likely accuracy and probability as a result of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. There is an inherent risk that the Group has incorrectly assessed the credit quality and/or the ability or willingness of borrowers to repay, possibly as a result of incomplete or inaccurate disclosure by those borrowers or as a result of the inherent uncertainty that is involved in the exercise of constructing and using models to estimate the risk of lending to counterparties. In addition, observed credit quality of the portfolios is likely to have been influenced by the significant support provided during the COVID-19 pandemic, including the government lending schemes, payment holidays and furlough arrangements, which may have distorted underlying credit risks in the portfolio and may lead to increases in arrears and/or defaults which remain unidentified. This may result in additional impairment charges if the forward looking economic scenarios used to raise expected credit loss allowances have not adequately captured the impact of the withdrawal of the temporary support measures.

If the Group has, or is perceived to have, a shortage of regulatory capital or to be unable to meet its regulatory minimum liquidity requirements, then it may be subject to regulatory interventions and sanctions and may suffer a loss of confidence in the market with the result that access to sources of liquidity and funding may become constrained, more expensive or unavailable. This, in turn, may affect the Group’s capacity to continue its business operations, pay future dividends and make other distributions or pursue acquisitions or other strategic opportunities, impacting future growth potential. See also the risk factor above entitled “The Group’s businesses are subject to inherent risks concerning liquidity and funding, particularly if the availability of traditional sources of funding such as retail deposits or the access to wholesale funding markets becomes more limited”. A shortage of capital could arise from (i) a depletion of the Group’s capital resources through increased costs or liabilities and reduced asset values which could arise as a result of the crystallisation of credit-related risks, regulatory and legal risks, business and economic risks, operational risks, financial soundness-related risks and other risks; and/or (ii) an increase in the amount of capital that is needed to be held; and/or (iii) changes in the manner in which the Group is required to calculate its capital and/or the risk-weightings applied to its assets. This might be driven by a change to the actual level of risk faced by the Group or to changes in the minimum capital required by legislation or by the regulatory authorities. For example, an aggregated risk weighted asset output floor has been proposed by the Basel Committee, which the European Commission proposed to implement from 1 January 2025 with some amendments for the specific features of the EU's banking sector. In the UK, the application of Basel 3.1, including the output floor, will be a matter for the UK legislature and the Group’s prudential regulators and there remains uncertainty until such rules translate into UK legislation. If, in response to higher capital requirements or a shortage, or perceived shortage, of regulatory capital, the Group raises additional capital through the issuance of shares, existing shareholders may experience a dilution of their holdings. If a capital or debt instrument is converted to ordinary shares as a result of a trigger within the contractual terms of the instrument or through the exercise of statutory powers then, depending upon the terms of the conversion, existing shareholders may experience a dilution of their holdings. Separately, the Group may address a shortage of capital by acting to reduce leverage exposures and/or risk-weighted assets, for example by way of business disposals. Such actions may impact the profitability of the Group. Whilst the Group monitors current and expected future capital, MREL and liquidity requirements, including having regard to both leverage and risk weighted assets-based requirements, and seeks to manage and plan the prudential position accordingly and on the basis of current assumptions regarding future regulatory capital and liquidity requirements, there can be no assurance that the assumptions will be accurate in all respects or that it will not be required to take additional measures to strengthen its capital or liquidity position. Market expectations as to capital and liquidity levels may also increase, driven by, for example, the capital and liquidity levels (or targets) of peer banking groups. The Group’s borrowing costs and access to capital markets, as well as its ability to lend or carry out certain aspects of its business, could also be affected by future prudential regulatory developments more generally, including: (i) evolving UK and global prudential and regulatory changes, for example the expected consultation on implementing Basel 3.1 in the UK and (ii) regulatory changes in other jurisdictions to which the Group has exposure. Any of the risks mentioned above could have a material adverse effect on the Group’s capital resources and/or liquidity, results of operations, its ability to continue its business operations and its financial condition.

In order to maintain and enhance the Group’s strategic position, it continues to invest in new initiatives and programmes. The Group acknowledges the challenges faced with delivering these initiatives and programmes alongside the extensive agenda of regulatory and legal changes whilst safely operating existing systems and controls. The successful completion of these programmes and the Group’s other strategic initiatives requires complex judgements, including forecasts of economic conditions in various parts of the world, and can be subject to significant risks. For example, the Group’s ability to execute its strategic initiatives successfully may be adversely impacted by a significant global macroeconomic downturn, legacy issues, limitations in its management or operational capacity and capability or significant and unexpected regulatory change in countries in which it operates. Failure to execute the Group’s strategic initiatives successfully could have an adverse effect on the Group’s ability to achieve the stated targets and other expected benefits of these initiatives, and there is also a risk that the costs associated with implementing such initiatives may be higher than expected or benefits may be lesser than expected. Both of these factors could materially adversely impact the Group’s results of operations, financial condition or prospects.

The Group may from time to time undertake acquisitions as part of its growth strategy, which could subject it to a number of risks, such as: (i) the rationale and assumptions underlying the business plans supporting the valuation of a target business may prove inaccurate, in particular with respect to synergies and expected commercial demand; (ii) the Group may fail to successfully integrate any acquired business, including its technologies, products and personnel; (iii) the Group may fail to retain key employees, customers and suppliers of any acquired business; (iv) the Group may be required or wish to terminate pre-existing contractual relationships, which could prove costly and/or be executed at unfavourable terms and conditions; (v) the Group may fail to discover certain contingent or undisclosed liabilities in businesses that it acquires, or its due diligence to discover any such liabilities may be inadequate; and (vi) it may be necessary to obtain regulatory and other approvals in connection with certain acquisitions and there can be no assurance that such approvals will be obtained and even if granted, that there will be no burdensome conditions attached to such approvals, all of which could materially and adversely affect the Group’s results of operations, financial conditions or prospects.