LyondellBasell (LYB) Risk Analysis

The Company operates in multiple jurisdictions with complex legal and tax regulatory environments and is subject to taxes in the U.S. and non-U.S. jurisdictions. Significant changes to tax laws and regulations in these jurisdictions or their interpretation could have a material impact on our effective income tax rate. Our future effective income tax rates could also fluctuate based on, among other factors, changes in pre-tax income in countries with varying statutory tax rates, changes in valuation allowances, changes in foreign exchange gains/losses, the amount of exempt income, and changes in unrecognized tax benefits associated with uncertain tax positions. Our tax returns are periodically audited or subjected to review by tax authorities, and we regularly evaluate the likelihood of an adverse result of an examination, however any adverse result of these examinations could also have a material impact on our effective income tax rate, financial condition and results of operations.

A portion of our operations are conducted through joint ventures or equity investments, where control may be exercised by or shared with unaffiliated third parties. We cannot control the actions or ownership of these partners, including any nonperformance, default or bankruptcy of the joint venture or its partners. The joint ventures that we do not control may also lack financial reporting systems to provide adequate and timely information for our reporting purposes. In addition, a joint venture may lack adequate cybersecurity protections or other controls that could impact its ability to reliably conduct operations. Our joint venture partners may have different interests or goals than we do and may take actions contrary to our requests, policies or objectives. Differences in views among the joint venture participants also may result in delayed decisions or in failures to agree on major matters, potentially adversely affecting the business and operations of the joint ventures and in turn our business and operations. We may develop a dispute with any of our partners over decisions affecting the venture that may result in litigation, arbitration or some other form of dispute resolution. If a joint venture participant acts contrary to our interest, or is unsuccessful in conducting its business, it could harm our brand, business, results of operations and financial condition.

We require significant capital to operate our current business and fund our growth strategy. Moreover, interest payments, dividends, capital requirements of our joint ventures, the expansion of our current business or other business opportunities may require significant amounts of capital. If we need external financing, our access to credit markets and pricing of our capital is dependent upon maintaining sufficient credit ratings from credit rating agencies and the state of the capital markets generally. There can be no assurances that we would be able to incur indebtedness on terms we deem acceptable, and it is possible that the cost of any financings could increase significantly, thereby increasing our expenses and decreasing our net income. If we are unable to generate sufficient cash flow or raise adequate external financing, including as a result of significant disruptions in the global credit markets, we could be forced to restrict our operations and growth opportunities, which could adversely affect our operating results. We may use our $3,750 million revolving credit facility, which backs our commercial paper program, to meet our cash needs, to the extent available. As of December 31, 2024, we had no borrowings or letters of credit outstanding under the facility and no borrowings outstanding under our commercial paper program, leaving an unused and available credit capacity of $3,750 million. We may also meet our cash needs by selling receivables under our $900 million U.S. Receivables Facility. As of December 31, 2024, we had no borrowing or letters of credit outstanding and availability of $900 million under this facility. In the event of a default under our credit facilities or any of our senior notes, we could be required to immediately repay all outstanding borrowings and make cash deposits as collateral for all obligations the facility supports, which we may not be able to do. Any default under any of our credit arrangements could cause a default under many of our other credit agreements and debt instruments. Without waivers from lenders party to those agreements, any such default could have a material adverse effect on our ability to continue to operate.

We continually evaluate the performance and strategic fit of all of our businesses and evaluate whether our businesses would benefit from acquisitions to enhance growth or dispositions that would align our footprint with our overall business strategy. These transactions pose risks and challenges that could negatively impact our business and financial statements. In 2024, we launched a strategic review of certain assets in Europe to align our asset base with our strategy. Acquisitions involve numerous risks, including meeting our standards for compliance, problems combining the purchased operations, technologies or products, unanticipated costs and liabilities, diversion of management's attention from our core businesses, and potential loss of key employees. There can be no assurance that we will be able to integrate successfully any businesses, products, technologies, or personnel that we might acquire. The integration of businesses that we may acquire is likely to be a complex, time-consuming, and expensive process and we may not realize the anticipated revenues, synergies, or other benefits associated with our acquisitions if we do not manage and operate the acquired business up to our expectations. If we are unable to efficiently operate as a combined organization utilizing common information and communication systems, operating procedures, financial controls, and human resources practices, our business, financial condition, and results of operations may be adversely affected. Dispositions of assets or businesses involve risks, including difficulties in the separation of operations, services, products and personnel, the diversion of management's attention from other business concerns, the disruption of our business, the potential loss of key employees and the retention of uncertain environmental or other contingent liabilities related to the divested business. In addition, they may result in significant asset impairment charges, including those related to goodwill and other intangible assets, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. In the event we are unable to successfully divest a business or product line, we may be forced to wind down such business or product line, which could materially and adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. We cannot assure you that we will be successful in managing these or any other significant risks that we encounter in acquiring or divesting a business or product line, and any transaction we undertake could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows, and may also result in a diversion of management attention, operational difficulties and losses.

Our results of operations can be materially affected by adverse conditions in the financial markets and depressed economic conditions generally. Economic downturns in the businesses and geographic areas in which we sell our products could substantially reduce demand for our products and result in decreased sales volumes and increased credit risk. Recessionary environments adversely affect our business because demand for our products is reduced, particularly from our customers in industrial markets generally and the automotive and housing industries specifically and may result in higher costs of capital. A significant portion of our revenues and earnings are derived from our business in Europe. In addition, most of our European transactions and assets, including cash and receivables, are denominated in euros. We also derive significant revenues from our business in emerging markets, particularly the emerging markets in Asia and South America. Any broad-based downturn in these emerging markets, or in a key market such as China, could require us to reduce export volumes into these markets and could also require us to divert product sales to less profitable markets. Any of these conditions could ultimately harm our overall business, prospects, operating results, financial condition and cash flows.

Potential physical impacts of climate change include increased frequency and severity of hurricanes and floods as well as freezing conditions, tornadoes, and global sea level rise. Although we have preparedness plans in place designed to minimize impacts and enhance safety, should an event occur, it could have the potential to disrupt our supply chain and operations. A number of our facilities are located on the U.S. Gulf Coast, which has been impacted by hurricanes that have required us to temporarily shut down operations at those sites. Our sites rely on rivers and other waterways for transportation that may experience restrictions in times of drought or other unseasonal weather variation. In addition, scarcity of water and drought conditions due to climate change could reduce the availability of fresh water needed to produce our products which could increase our costs of operations.

We operate internationally and are subject to the risks of doing business on a global level. These risks include fluctuations in currency exchange rates, economic instability and disruptions, restrictions on the transfer of funds and the imposition of trade restrictions or duties and tariffs, and complex regulations concerning privacy and data security. Additional risks from our multinational business include transportation delays and interruptions, war, terrorist activities, epidemics, pandemics, political instability, import and export controls, access to infrastructure, sanctions, changes in governmental policies, labor unrest and current and changing regulatory environments. We generate revenues from export sales and operations that may be denominated in currencies other than the relevant functional currency. Exchange rates between these currencies and functional currencies in recent years have fluctuated significantly and may do so in the future. It is possible that fluctuations in exchange rates will result in reduced operating results. Additionally, we operate with the objective of having our worldwide cash available in the locations where it is needed, including the United Kingdom for our parent company's significant cash obligations as a result of dividend payments. It is possible that we may not always be able to provide cash to other jurisdictions when needed or that such transfers of cash could be subject to additional taxes, including withholding taxes. Our operating results could be negatively affected by the laws, rules and regulations, as well as political environments, in the jurisdictions in which we operate. There could be reduced demand for our products, decreases in the prices at which we can sell our products and disruptions of production or other operations. Trade protection measures such as quotas, duties, tariffs, safeguard measures or anti-dumping duties imposed in the countries in which we operate could negatively impact our business. Additionally, there may be substantial capital and other costs to comply with regulations and/or increased security costs or insurance premiums, any of which could reduce our operating results. We obtain a portion of our principal raw materials from international sources that are subject to these same risks. Our compliance with applicable customs, currency exchange control regulations, transfer pricing regulations or any other laws or regulations to which we may be subject could be challenged. Furthermore, these laws may be modified, the result of which may be to prevent or limit subsidiaries from transferring cash to us. Furthermore, we are subject to certain existing, and may be subject to possible future, laws that limit or may limit our activities while some of our competitors may not be subject to such laws, which may adversely affect our competitiveness.

We have a significant worldwide patent portfolio of issued and pending patents, and our future results could be impacted by our ability to successfully develop and protect new processes and technologies. Our patents and patent applications, together with proprietary technical know-how, are significant to our competitive position, particularly with regard to PO, intermediate chemicals, polyolefins, licensing and catalysts. We rely on the patent, copyright and trade secret laws of the countries in which we operate to protect our investment in research and development, manufacturing and marketing. We operate plants, sell catalysts and products, participate in joint ventures, and license our process technology in many foreign jurisdictions, including those having heightened risks for intellectual property. In some of these instances, we must disclose at least a portion of our technology to third parties or regulatory bodies. In these cases, we rely primarily on contracts and trade secret laws to protect the associated trade secrets. However, we may be unable to prevent third parties from using our intellectual property without authorization. Proceedings to protect these rights could be costly, and we may not prevail. The failure of our patents or confidentiality agreements to protect our processes, apparatuses, technology, trade secrets or proprietary know-how could result in significantly lower revenues, reduced profit margins and cash flows and/or loss of market share. We also may be subject to claims that our technology, patents or other intellectual property infringes on a third party's intellectual property rights. Unfavorable resolution of these claims could result in restrictions on our ability to deliver the related service or in a settlement that could be material to us.

Increased global information cybersecurity threats and more sophisticated, targeted computer crime pose a risk to the confidentiality, availability and integrity of our data, operations and infrastructure. Our cybersecurity and infrastructure protection technologies, disaster recovery plans and systems, employee training and vendor risk management may not be sufficient to defend us against all unauthorized attempts to access our information or impact our systems. We – and our third-party vendors and service providers – have been and may in the future be subject to cybersecurity events of varying degrees. To date, the impacts of prior events have not had a material adverse effect on us, however, there is no assurance that such an event has not already occurred and we are unaware of it, or that we will not suffer a cybersecurity breach and loss in the future. We devote significant resources to prevent cybersecurity events, incidents, and breaches and to protect our data, but our systems and procedures for identifying and protecting against such attacks and mitigating such risks may prove to be insufficient due to system vulnerabilities, human error or malfeasance, or other factors. Cybersecurity events involving our information technology systems or those of our third-party vendors and service providers can result in disclosure, unavailability, loss of integrity, theft, destruction, loss, misappropriation or release of confidential financial data, regulated personally identifying or identifiable information, intellectual property and other information; give rise to remediation or other expenses; result in litigation, claims and increased regulatory review or scrutiny; reduce our customers' willingness to do business with us; disrupt our operations and the services we provide to customers; and subject us to litigation and legal liability under international, U.S. federal and state laws and regulations. Any of such results could have a material adverse effect on our reputation, business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. We are subject to a variety of laws and regulations in Europe, the United States and other jurisdictions regarding privacy, data protection, and data security, including those related to the collection, storage, handling, use, disclosure, transfer, and security of personal data, and impose obligations on us to ensure transparency, purpose limitation, data minimization, accuracy, storage limitation, integrity, confidentiality, and accountability. Compliance with and interpretation of various data privacy regulations continue to evolve, and any violation could subject us to legal claims, regulatory penalties, and damage to our reputation. In addition, the complex and dynamic regulatory environment surrounding artificial intelligence ("AI"), including generative AI, subjects us to a variety of risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, data privacy and security vulnerabilities, intellectual property patent, copyright, and misappropriation claims, unauthorized third-party usage of data associated with training models, and malicious use and advanced deceitful communication methods. AI may be leveraged by threat actors to enhance the volume and sophistication of their attacks, potentially resulting in a cybersecurity event affecting us or our suppliers. Furthermore, we face potential missed innovation opportunities and competitive disadvantages. The evolving nature of AI regulations, such as the European Union Artificial Intelligence Act and other global legislative efforts, adds to the uncertainty and complexity of compliance. Changes in these regulations may require significant adjustments to our AI strategies and operations, potentially leading to increased costs and operational disruptions.

We sell our products in highly competitive global markets. Due to the commodity nature of many of our products, competition in these markets is based primarily on price and, to a lesser extent, on product performance, product quality, product deliverability, reliability of supply and customer service. Often, we are not able to protect our market position for these products by product differentiation and may not be able to pass on cost increases to our customers due to the significant competition in our industry. In addition, we face increased competition from companies that may have greater financial resources and different cost structures or strategic goals than us. These include large integrated oil companies (some of which also have chemical businesses), government-owned businesses, and companies that receive subsidies or other government incentives to produce certain products in a specified geographic region. Continuing competition from these companies, especially in our olefin business, could limit our ability to increase product sales prices in response to raw material and other cost increases, or could cause us to reduce product sales prices to compete effectively, which would reduce our profitability. Competitors with different cost structures or strategic goals than we have may be able to invest significant capital into their businesses, including expenditures for research and development. In addition, specialty products we produce may become commoditized over time. Increased competition could result in lower prices or lower sales volumes, which would have a negative impact on our results of operations.

Our business operations are subject to the cyclical and volatile nature of the supply-demand balance in the chemical industry. Our future operating results are expected to continue to be affected by this cyclicality and volatility. The chemical industry historically has experienced alternating periods of capacity shortages, causing prices and profit margins to increase, followed by periods of excess capacity, resulting in oversupply, declining capacity utilization rates and declining prices and profit margins. While we are exiting the refining business in the first quarter of 2025, we expect to experience similar volatility in that industry until closure of our Houston refinery. In addition to changes in the supply and demand for products, changes in energy prices and other worldwide economic conditions can cause volatility. These factors result in significant fluctuations in profits and cash flow from period to period and over business cycles. New capacity additions around the world may lead to periods of oversupply and lower profitability. The timing and extent of any changes to currently prevailing market conditions are uncertain and supply and demand may be unbalanced at any time. As a consequence, we are unable to accurately predict the extent or duration of future industry cycles or their effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations.