FVCBankcorp (FVCB) Risk Analysis

A substantial portion of our loans are secured by various types of real estate in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area and substantially all of our loans are to borrowers in that area. At December 31, 2023, 87.7% of our total loans were secured by real estate; commercial real estate loans, excluding construction and land development, comprised the largest portion of these loans at 59.7% of our portfolio. This concentration exposes us to the risk that adverse developments in the real estate market, or the general economic conditions in our market, could increase our nonperforming loans and charge-offs, reduce the value of our collateral and adversely impact our results of operations and financial condition. Management believes that the commercial real estate concentration risk is mitigated by diversification among the types and characteristics of real estate collateral properties, sound underwriting practices, rigorous portfolio monitoring and ongoing market analysis. Construction and land development loans comprised 8.1% of total loans at December 31, 2023. Commercial and industrial loans, comprised 11.8%, of total loans at December 31, 2023. These categories of loans have historically carried a higher risk of default than other types of loans, such as single family residential mortgage loans. The repayment of these loans often depends on the successful operation of a business or the sale or development of the underlying property, and, as a result, are more likely to be adversely affected by adverse conditions in the real estate market or the economy in general. While we believe that our loan portfolio is well diversified in terms of borrowers and industries, these concentrations expose us to the risk that adverse developments in the real estate market, or in the general economic conditions in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area, could increase the levels of nonperforming loans and charge-offs, and reduce loan demand. In that event, we would likely experience lower earnings or losses. Additionally, if, for any reason, economic conditions in our market area deteriorate, or there is significant volatility or weakness in the economy or any significant sector of the area's economy, our ability to develop our business relationships may be diminished, the quality and collectability of our loans may be adversely affected, our provision for credit losses may increase, the value of collateral may decline and loan demand may be reduced. Commercial real estate loans tend to have larger balances than single family mortgage loans and other consumer loans because repayment of the loans often depends on the successful operation of the properties and the income stream of the borrowers. Because the loan portfolio contains a significant number of commercial real estate loans with relatively large balances, the deterioration of one or a few of these loans may cause a significant increase in nonperforming assets. Some segments have shown some signs of weakness as rising expenses and debt costs and lower valuations have impacted credit quality metrics. Vacancy rates have risen in the office sector, which is experiencing significant structural shifts that could take several years to fully materialize as remote work practices normalize. An increase in nonperforming loans could result in a loss of earnings from these loans, an increase in the provision for credit losses, or an increase in loan charge-offs, which could have an adverse impact on our results of operations and financial condition.

As market interest rates have increased, we have experienced significant unrealized losses on our available for sale securities portfolio. Unrealized losses related to available for sale securities are reflected in accumulated other comprehensive income in our consolidated statements of condition and reduce the level of our book capital and tangible common equity. However, such unrealized losses do not affect our regulatory capital ratios. During 2023, we rebalanced our investment securities portfolio by selling $102.5 million in book value available-for-sale securities with a weighted average rate of 1.54%, resulting in realized losses of $15.6 million, which are expected to be earned back over approximately 3 years. The net proceeds of the rebalancing were used to pay down FHLB advances and fund newly originated loans. We actively monitor our available-for-sale securities portfolio and we do not currently anticipate the need to realize material losses from the sale of securities for liquidity purposes. Furthermore, we believe it is unlikely that we would be required to sell any such securities before recovery of their amortized cost basis, which may be at maturity. Nonetheless, our access to liquidity sources could be affected by unrealized losses if securities must be sold at a loss; tangible capital ratios continue to decline from an increase in unrealized losses or realized credit losses; the FHLB or other funding sources reduce capacity; or bank regulators impose restrictions on us that impact the level of interest rates we may pay on deposits or our ability to access brokered deposits. Additionally, significant unrealized losses could negatively impact market and/or customer perceptions of our company, which could lead to a loss of depositor confidence and an increase in deposit withdrawals, particularly among those with uninsured deposits.

Our business depends on our ability to successfully measure and manage credit risk. As a lender, we are exposed to the risk that the principal of, or interest on, a loan will not be paid timely or at all or that the value of any collateral supporting a loan will be insufficient to cover our outstanding exposure. In addition, we are exposed to risks with respect to the period of time over which the loan may be repaid, risks relating to loan underwriting, risks resulting from changes in economic and industry conditions, and risks inherent in dealing with individual loans and borrowers. The creditworthiness of a borrower is affected by many factors including local market conditions and general economic conditions. If the overall economic climate in the U.S. generally, or in our market areas specifically, experiences material disruption, our borrowers may experience difficulties in repaying their loans, the collateral we hold may decrease in value or become illiquid, and our level of nonperforming loans, charge-offs and delinquencies could rise and require significant additional provisions for credit losses. Our risk management practices, such as monitoring the concentrations of our loans and our credit approval, review and administrative practices, may not adequately reduce credit risk, and our credit administration personnel, policies and procedures may not adequately adapt to changes in economic or any other conditions affecting related customers and the quality of the loan portfolio. Many of our loans are made to small businesses that are less able to withstand competitive, economic and financial pressures than larger borrowers. Consequently, we may have significant exposure if any of these borrowers becomes unable to pay their loan obligations as a result of economic or market conditions, or personal circumstances, such as divorce, unemployment or death. A failure to effectively measure and limit the credit risk associated with our loan portfolio may result in loan defaults, foreclosures and additional charge-offs, and may necessitate that we significantly increase our allowance for credit losses, each of which could adversely affect our net income. As a result, our inability to successfully manage credit risk could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

We make loans primarily to borrowers in the Washington, D.C. and Baltimore metropolitan areas, focusing on the Virginia counties of Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William and the independent cities located within those counties, Washington D.C., and its Maryland suburbs, and have a substantial portion of our loans secured by real estate. These concentrations expose us to the risk that adverse developments in the real estate market, or in the general economic conditions in such areas, or the continuation of such adverse developments, could increase the levels of nonperforming loans and charge-offs, and reduce loan demand and deposit growth. In that event, we would likely experience lower earnings or losses. Additionally, if economic conditions in the area deteriorate, or there is significant volatility or weakness in the economy or any significant sector of the area's economy, our ability to develop our business relationships may be diminished, the quality and collectability of our loans may be adversely affected, our provision for credit losses may increase, the value of collateral may decline and loan demand may be reduced.

Our profitability, like that of most financial institutions, depends to a large extent on our net interest income, which is the difference between our interest income on interest-earning assets, such as loans and investment securities, and our interest expense on interest-bearing liabilities, such as deposits and borrowings. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors that are beyond our control, including general economic conditions and policies of various governmental and regulatory agencies and, in particular, the Federal Reserve. Changes in monetary policy, including changes in interest rates, could influence not only the interest we receive on loans and securities and the interest we pay on deposits and borrowings, but such changes could affect our ability to originate loans and obtain deposits, the fair value of our financial assets and liabilities, and the average duration of our assets. If the interest rates paid on deposits and other borrowings increase at a faster rate than the interest rates received on loans and other investments, our net interest income, and therefore earnings, could be adversely affected. Earnings could also be adversely affected if the interest rates received on loans and other investments fall more quickly than the interest rates paid on deposits and other borrowings. Any substantial, unexpected or prolonged change in market interest rates could have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition and results of operations. When short-term interest rates rise, the rate of interest we pay on our interest-bearing liabilities may rise more quickly than the rate of interest that we receive on our interest-earning assets, which may cause our net interest income to decrease. Additionally, a shrinking yield premium between short-term and long-term market interest rates, a pattern usually indicative of investors' waning expectations of future growth and inflation, commonly referred to as a flattening of the yield curve, typically reduces our profit margin as we borrow at shorter terms than the terms at which we lend and invest. In addition, an increase in interest rates could also have a negative impact on our results of operations by reducing the ability of borrowers to repay their current loan obligations. These circumstances could not only result in increased loan defaults, foreclosures and charge-offs, but also reduce collateral values and necessitate further increases to the allowance for credit losses, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Liquidity is essential to our business. Liquidity risk is the potential that we will be unable to meet our obligations as they become due because of an inability to liquidate assets or obtain adequate funding at a reasonable cost, in a timely manner and without adverse conditions or consequences. We require sufficient liquidity to fund asset growth, meet customer loan requests, customer deposit maturities and withdrawals, payments on our debt obligations as they become due and other cash commitments under both normal operating conditions and other unpredictable circumstances, including events causing industry or general financial market stress. Liquidity risk can increase due to a number of factors, including an over-reliance on a particular source of funding or market-wide phenomena such as market dislocation and major disasters. Factors that could detrimentally impact access to liquidity sources include, but are not limited to, a decrease in the level of our business activity as a result of a slowdown in our market, adverse regulatory actions against us, or changes in the liquidity needs of our depositors. Market conditions or other events could also negatively affect the level or cost of funding, affecting our ongoing ability to accommodate liability maturities and deposit withdrawals, meet contractual obligations, and fund asset growth and new business transactions at a reasonable cost, in a timely manner, and without adverse consequences. Our inability to raise funds through deposits, borrowings, the sale of loans, other sources, and our ability to maintain sufficient deposits, could have a substantial negative effect on our business, and could result in the closure of the Bank. Our access to funding sources in amounts adequate to finance our activities or on acceptable terms could be impaired by factors that affect our organization specifically or the financial services industry or economy in general. Any substantial, unexpected, and/or prolonged change in the level or cost of liquidity could impair our ability to fund operations and meet our obligations as they become due and could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. We rely on customer deposits, including brokered deposits, and to a lesser extent on advances from the FHLB and federal funds purchased to fund our operations. Although we have historically been able to replace customer deposit withdrawals, maturing deposits, and advances if desired, we may not be able to replace such funds in the future if our financial condition, the financial condition of the FHLB or market conditions were to change. FHLB borrowings and other current sources of liquidity may not be available or, if available, sufficient to provide adequate funding for operations.

Like many financial institutions we rely on customer deposits as our primary source of funding for our lending activities, and we continue to seek customer deposits to maintain this funding base. Our future growth will largely depend on our ability to retain and grow our diverse deposit base. As of December 31, 2023, we had $1.85 billion in deposits and approximately 9% of our deposits are derived from one customer relationship. Our deposits are subject to potentially dramatic fluctuations in availability or price due to certain factors outside of our control, such as increasing competitive pressures for deposits, changes in interest rates and returns on other investment classes, customer perceptions of our financial health and general reputation and adverse developments in general economic conditions of an individual's business, which could result in significant outflows of deposits within short periods of time or significant changes in pricing necessary to maintain current customer deposits or attract additional deposits. Additionally, negative news about us or the banking industry in general could negatively impact market and/or customer perceptions of our company, which could lead to a loss of depositor confidence and an increase in deposit withdrawals, particularly among those with uninsured deposits. Furthermore, as many regional banking organizations experienced in 2023, the failure of other financial institutions may cause deposit outflows as customers spread deposits among several different banks so as to maximize their amount of FDIC insurance, move deposits to banks deemed "too big to fail" or remove deposits from the banking system entirely. As of December 31, 2023, approximately 31.1% of our deposits were uninsured when excluding collateralized deposits, and we rely on these deposits for liquidity.Any such loss of funds could result in lower loan originations and decrease in liquidity, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

We enter into off-balance sheet arrangements in the normal course of business to meet the financing needs of our customers. These off-balance sheet arrangements include commitments to extend credit, standby letters of credit and guarantees which would impact our liquidity and capital resources to the extent customers accept or use these commitments. These instruments involve, to varying degrees, elements of credit and interest rate risk in excess of the amount recognized in the balance sheet. Our exposure to credit loss in the event of nonperformance by the other party to the financial instrument for commitments to extend credit and standby letters of credit and guarantees written is represented by the contractual or notional amount of those instruments. We use the same credit policies in making commitments and conditional obligations as we do for on-balance sheet instruments.

Experience in the banking industry indicates that a portion of our loans will become delinquent, and that some may only be partially repaid or may never be repaid at all. We maintain an allowance for credit losses in an amount that is believed to be appropriate to provide for expected losses inherent in the portfolio. We have a proactive program to monitor credit quality and to identify loans that may become non-performing; however, at any time there could be loans in the portfolio that may result in losses, but that have not been identified as non-performing or potential problem credits. We may be unable to identify all deteriorating credits prior to them becoming non-performing assets, or to limit losses on those loans that are identified. As a result, future additions to the allowance may be necessary. Additionally, future additions to the allowance may be required based on changes in the forecasted economic conditions, changes in the loans comprising the portfolio and changes in the financial condition of borrowers, or as a result of assumptions used by management in determining the allowance. Although we endeavor to maintain our allowance for credit losses at a level adequate to absorb any losses in the loan portfolio, the determination of the appropriate level of the allowance for credit losses is inherently highly subjective and requires us to make significant estimates of and assumptions regarding current credit risk and future trends, and the accuracy of our judgments depends on the outcome of future events. Further, despite our underwriting criteria and historical experience, we may be particularly susceptible to losses due to: (i) the geographic concentration of our loans, (ii) the concentration of higher risk loans, such as commercial real estate, and commercial and industrial loans, and (iii) the relative lack of seasoning of certain of our loans. Deterioration of economic conditions affecting borrowers, new information regarding existing loans, inaccurate management assumptions, identification of additional problem loans and other factors, both within and outside of our control, may result in our experiencing higher levels of nonperforming assets and charge-offs, and incurring credit losses in excess of our current allowance for credit losses, requiring us to make material additions to our allowance for credit losses. Our federal and state banking regulators, as an integral part of their supervisory function, periodically review the adequacy of our allowance for credit losses. These regulatory agencies may require us to increase our provision for credit losses or to recognize further loan charge-offs based upon their judgments, which may be different from ours. If we need to make significant and unanticipated increases in the loss allowance in the future, or take additional charge-offs for which we have not established adequate reserves, our results of operations and financial condition could be materially adversely affected at that time.

As a result of our organic growth over the past several years, as of December 31, 2023, approximately $1.06 billion, or 57.8%, of the loans in our loan portfolio were first originated during the past three years. The average age by loan type for loans originated in the past three years is: commercial real estate loans-1.76 years; commercial and industrial loans-1.45 years; commercial construction loans-1.44 years; consumer residential loans-1.54 years; and consumer nonresidential loans-1.34 years. In general, loans do not begin to show signs of credit deterioration or default until they have been outstanding for some period of time, a process referred to as "seasoning." As a result, a portfolio of older loans will usually behave more predictably than a newer portfolio. Therefore, the recent and current level of delinquencies and defaults may not represent the level that may prevail as the portfolio becomes more seasoned and may not serve as a reliable basis for predicting the health and nature of our loan portfolio, including net charge offs and the ratio of nonperforming assets in the future. Our limited experience with these loans may not provide us with a significant history with which to judge future collectability or performance. However, we believe that our stringent credit underwriting process, our ongoing credit review processes, and our history of successful management of our loan portfolio, mitigate these risks. Nevertheless, if delinquencies and defaults increase, we may be required to increase our provision for credit losses, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Many of our commercial business and commercial real estate loans are made to small business or middle market customers. These businesses generally have fewer financial resources in terms of capital or borrowing capacity than larger entities and have a heightened vulnerability to economic conditions. If general economic conditions in the market area in which we operate negatively impact this important customer sector, our results of operations and financial condition may be adversely affected. Moreover, a portion of these loans have been made by us in recent years and the borrowers may not have experienced a complete business or economic cycle. The deterioration of our borrowers' businesses may hinder their ability to repay their loans with us, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

We selectively seek to expand our banking operations through limited de novo branching or opportunistic acquisition activities. We cannot be certain that any expansion activity, through de novo branching, acquisition of branches of another financial institution or a whole institution, or the establishment or acquisition of nonbanking financial service companies, will prove profitable or will increase shareholder value. The success of any acquisition will depend, in part, on our ability to realize the estimated cost savings and revenue enhancements from combining our business and that of the target company. Our ability to realize increases in revenue will depend, in part, on our ability to retain customers and employees, and to capitalize on existing relationships for the provision of additional products and services. If our estimates turn out to be incorrect or we are not able to successfully combine companies, the anticipated cost savings and increased revenues may not be realized fully or at all, or may take longer to realize than expected. It is possible that the integration process could result in the loss of key employees, the disruption of each company's ongoing business, diversion of management attention, or inconsistencies in standards, controls, procedures and policies that adversely affect our ability to maintain relationships with clients and employees or to achieve the anticipated benefits of the merger. As with any combination of banking institutions, there also may be disruptions that cause us to lose customers or cause customers to withdraw their deposits. Customers may not readily accept changes to their banking arrangements that we make as part of or following an acquisition. Additionally, the value of an acquisition to us is dependent on our ability to successfully identify and estimate the magnitude of any asset quality issues of acquired companies. We may not be successful in overcoming these risks or other problems encountered in connection with potential acquisitions or other expansion activity. Our inability to overcome these risks could have an adverse effect on our ability to implement our business strategy and enhance shareholder value, which, in turn, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations. Additionally, at December 31, 2023, we had $7.2 million of goodwill related to our acquisition of Colombo. Goodwill and other intangible assets are tested for impairment on an annual basis or when facts and circumstances indicate that impairment may have occurred. Our financial condition and results of operations may be adversely affected if that goodwill is determined to be impaired, which would require us to take an impairment charge.