First Northwest Bancorp (FNWB) Risk Analysis

At December 31, 2023, $447.8 million, or 27.0% of our total loan portfolio, consisted of one-to-four family mortgage loans and home equity loans secured by residential properties. Lending on residential property is sensitive to regional and local economic conditions that significantly impact the ability of borrowers to meet their loan payment obligations, making loss levels difficult to predict. Declines in residential real estate values securing these types of loans may increase the level of borrower defaults and losses above the recent charge-off experience on these loans. Jumbo one-to-four family residential loans that do not conform to secondary market mortgage requirements for our market areas would not be immediately saleable to Freddie Mac or other investors and may expose us to increased risk because of their larger balances. Further, a significant amount of our home equity lines of credit consist of loans in a subordinate lien position to a first lienholder. For home equity lines secured by a second mortgage, it is unlikely that we will be successful in recovering all or a portion of our loan balances in the event of default unless we repay the first mortgage loan and such repayment and the costs associated with a foreclosure are justified by the value of the property. For these reasons we may experience higher rates of delinquencies, default and losses on loans secured by junior liens.

During the year ended December 31, 2023, our construction and land loans decreased $64.0 million, or 33.0%, to $129.7 million, or 7.8%, of the total loan portfolio at December 31, 2023 and consisted of properties secured by multi-family of $66.7 million, one-to-four family residential of $43.7 million, commercial real estate of $11.8 million, and land of $7.5 million. Land loans include raw land and land acquisition and development loans. Construction and land development lending generally involves additional risks when compared with permanent residential lending because funds are advanced upon estimates of costs in relation to values associated with the completed project that will produce a future value at completion. Because of the uncertainties inherent in estimating construction costs, the market value of the completed project, the effects of governmental regulation on real property, and changes in demand, it is relatively difficult to evaluate accurately the total funds required to complete a project and the completed project loan-to-value ratio, which may cause actual results to vary significantly from those estimated. For these reasons, this type of lending also typically involves higher loan principal amounts and is often concentrated with a small number of builders. A downturn in housing, or the real estate market, could increase loan delinquencies, defaults and foreclosures, and significantly impair the value of our collateral and our ability to sell the collateral upon foreclosure. Some of our builders have more than one loan outstanding with us, and an adverse development with respect to one loan or one credit relationship may expose us to a significantly greater risk of loss. In addition, during the term of most of our construction loans, no payment from the borrower is required since the accumulated interest is added to the principal of the loan through an interest reserve. As a result, these loans often involve the disbursement of funds with repayment substantially dependent on the successful outcome of the project and the ability of the borrower to sell or lease the property or obtain permanent take-out financing, rather than the ability of the borrower or guarantor to repay principal and interest. If our appraisal of the value of a completed project proves to be overstated, we may have inadequate security for the repayment of the loan upon completion of construction of the project and may incur a loss. Because construction loans require active monitoring of the building process, including cost comparisons and on-site inspections, these loans are more difficult and costly to monitor. Increases in market rates of interest may have a more pronounced effect on construction loans by rapidly increasing the end-purchasers' borrowing costs, thereby reducing the overall demand for the project. Properties under construction are often difficult to sell and typically must be completed in order to be successfully sold, which also complicates the process of working out problem construction loans. This may require us to advance additional funds and/or contract with another builder to complete construction and assume the market risk of selling the project at a future market price, which may or may not enable us to fully recover unpaid loan funds and associated construction and liquidation costs.

First Fed has extended significant amounts of credit to certain borrowers, largely in connection with high-end residential real estate and commercial and multi-family real estate loans. At December 31, 2023, the aggregate amount of loans, including unused commitments, to First Fed's five largest borrowers (including related entities) amounted to approximately $95.8 million. Outstanding loan balances for the ten largest borrowing relationships at December 31, 2023, totaled $171.2 million, or 10.3% of total loans. Although only one of the loans to First Fed's 20 largest borrowers was nonperforming as of December 31, 2023, concentration of credit to a limited number of borrowers increases the risk in First Fed's loan portfolio. If one or more of these borrowers is not able to service the contractual repayment, the potential loss to First Fed is more likely to have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Since the completion of our initial public offering in January 2015, we have grown substantially in terms of total assets, total loans, total deposits, employees, and locations, expanding our business activities throughout the Puget Sound region. Our commercial loan portfolio, which includes loans for commercial and multi-family real estate as well as other business loans, has increased to $833.4 million, or 50.2% of total loans, at December 31, 2023, from $718.6 million, or 46.4% of total loans, at December 31, 2022. One-to-four family loans have increased to $378.4 million, or 22.8% of total loans, at December 31, 2023, from $343.6 million, or 22.2% of total loans, at December 31, 2022. Total consumer loans have increased to $318.5 million, or 19.2% of total loans, at December 31, 2023, from $291.8 million, or 18.8% of total loans, at December 31, 2022. Rapidly growing loan portfolios are, by their nature, less seasoned and our experience with these loans may not provide us with a useful payment history pattern. Rapid growth combined with the geographic expansion of our lending area may make estimating loan loss allowances more difficult and more susceptible to changes in estimates, and to losses exceeding estimates, than our more seasoned portfolio of loans in our traditional lending area. As a result, it is difficult to predict the future performance of these parts of our loan portfolio. These loans may develop delinquency or charge-off levels above our historical experience, which could adversely affect our future performance. We plan to continue both strategic and opportunistic growth, understanding that we may see a slowing of growth as we mature and manage capital down to more efficient levels. Continued growth can present substantial demands on management personnel, line employees, and other aspects of our operations, especially if our growth occurs rapidly. We may face difficulties in managing that growth effectively, which could damage our reputation, limit our growth, and negatively affect our operating results. Also see "Our expansion strategy will cause our expenses to increase and may negatively affect our earnings."

Washington law provides that Washington chartered commercial banks are subject to loans-to-one-borrower restrictions, which generally restrict total loans and extensions of credit by a bank to 20% of its unimpaired capital and surplus. As a result, under Washington law, First Fed would be limited to loans to one borrower of $46.0 million at December 31, 2023. Under its current policy, First Fed has elected to restrict its loans to one borrower to no more than 60% of the Bank's lending limit, which is adjusted quarterly and was $34.5 million at December 31, 2023, unless specifically approved by the Senior Loan Committee as an exception to policy. This amount is significantly less than that of many of our competitors and may discourage potential commercial borrowers who have credit needs in excess of our loans to one borrower lending limit from doing business with us. Our loans to one borrower restriction also impacts the efficiency of our commercial lending operation because it lowers our average loan size, which means we have to generate a higher number of transactions to achieve the same portfolio volume. We can accommodate larger loans by selling participations in those loans to other financial partners, but this strategy is not the most efficient or always available. We may not be able to attract or maintain clients seeking larger loans or may not be able to sell participations in these loans on terms we consider favorable.

At December 31, 2023, $105.4 million of our consumer, $38.1 million of our commercial real estate, and $19.2 million of our one-to-four family loan portfolios were serviced by third parties. When a loan goes into default, it is the responsibility of the third-party servicer to enforce the borrower's obligation to repay the outstanding indebtedness. We are reliant on the servicer to bring the loan current, enter into a satisfactory loan modification or foreclose on the property on behalf of First Fed. We must comply with any loan modification entered into by the servicer even if we would not otherwise agree to the modified terms, which may result in a reduction in our interest income due to the loan modification. Delays in foreclosing on property, whether caused by restrictions under state or federal law or the failure of a third-party servicer to timely pursue foreclosure action, may increase our potential loss on such property, due to factors such as lack of maintenance, unpaid property taxes and adverse changes in market conditions. These delays may adversely affect our ability to limit our credit losses.

We originate and sell one-to-four family mortgage loans. Our mortgage banking income is a significant portion of our noninterest income. We generate gains on the sale of one-to-four family mortgage loans pursuant to programs currently offered by Freddie Mac and other secondary market investors. Any future changes in their purchase programs, our eligibility to participate in such programs, the criteria for loans to be accepted or laws that significantly affect the activity of such entities could, in turn, materially adversely affect our results of operations. Further, in a rising or higher interest rate environment, our originations of mortgage loans may decrease, resulting in fewer loans that are available to be sold to investors. This would result in a decrease in mortgage banking revenues and a corresponding decrease in noninterest income. In addition, our results of operations are affected by the amount of noninterest expense associated with mortgage banking activities, such as salaries and employee benefits, occupancy, equipment and data processing expense and other operating costs. During periods of reduced loan demand, our results of operations may be adversely affected to the extent that we are unable to reduce expenses commensurate with the decline in loan originations. In addition, although we sell loans into the secondary market without recourse, we are required to give customary representations and warranties about the loans to the buyers. If we breach those representations and warranties, the buyers may require us to repurchase the loans and we may incur a loss on the repurchase.

Our earnings and cash flows are largely dependent on our net interest income. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors beyond our control, including general economic conditions and policies of various governmental and regulatory agencies, particularly the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve slowed its increases to the federal funds target rate in 2023, with the most recent increase occurring in July 2023. When the Federal Reserve Board increases the Fed Funds rate, overall interest rates will likely rise, which may negatively impact housing markets by reducing refinancing activity and new home purchases. A rising or elevated interest rate environment may also adversely affect the U.S. economy and, as a result, our business as a whole. The Federal Reserve has communicated that the economic outlook continues to be uncertain, and while it has stated that rates may decrease later in 2024, there can be no assurance of the timing or amount of any future rate adjustments. Further, there can be no assurance regarding any forecasts or predictions about the effect that any future rate adjustment may have on our results of operations. Further changes in monetary policy, including changes in interest rates, could influence not only the interest we receive on loans and investments and the amount of interest we pay on deposits and borrowings, but these changes could also affect (i) our ability to originate and/or sell mortgage and SBA loans; (ii) the fair value of our financial assets and liabilities, which could negatively impact shareholders' equity, and our ability to realize gains from sales of such assets; (iii) our ability to obtain and retain deposits in competition with other available investment alternatives; (iv) the ability of our borrowers to repay adjustable or variable rate loans; and (v) the average duration of our mortgage-backed securities portfolio and other interest-earning assets. If the interest rates paid on deposits and other borrowings increase at a faster rate than the interest rates received on loans and other investments, our net interest income, and therefore earnings, could be adversely affected. Earnings could also be adversely affected if the interest rates received on loans and other investments fall more quickly than the interest rates paid on deposits and other borrowings. Additional changes in interest rates could also have a negative impact on our results of operations by reducing the ability of borrowers to repay their current loan obligations or by reducing our margins and profitability. Our net interest margin is the net interest income divided by average interest-earning assets. Further changes in interest rates, up or down, could adversely affect our net interest margin and, as a result, our net interest income. Although the yield we earn on our assets and our funding costs tend to move in the same direction in response to changes in interest rates, one can rise or fall faster than the other, causing our net interest margin to expand or contract. Our liabilities tend to be shorter in duration than our assets, so they may adjust faster in response to changes in interest rates. As a result, when interest rates rise, our funding costs may rise faster than the yield we earn on our assets, causing our net interest margin to contract until the yields on interest-earning assets catch up. Changes in the slope of the "yield curve", or the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates, could also reduce our net interest margin. Normally, the yield curve is upward sloping, meaning short-term rates are lower than long-term rates. Because our liabilities tend to be shorter in duration than our assets, when the yield curve flattens or even inverts, we could experience pressure on our net interest margin as our cost of funds increases relative to the yield we can earn on our assets. A sustained increase in market interest rates could adversely affect our earnings. As a result of the exceptionally low interest rate environment in the years prior to 2022, a high percentage of our deposits were composed of deposits bearing no or a relatively low rate of interest and having a shorter duration than our assets. We will likely incur a higher cost of funds to retain these deposits in the current elevated interest rate environment. If the interest rates paid on deposits and other borrowings increase at a faster rate than the interest rates received on loans and other investments, our net interest income, and therefore earnings, would be adversely affected. Changes in interest rates also affect the value of our interest-earning assets, including our securities portfolio. Generally, the fair value of fixed-rate securities fluctuates inversely with changes in interest rates. Unrealized gains and losses on securities available for sale are reported as a separate component of equity, net of tax. Decreases in the fair value of securities available for sale resulting from increases in interest rates could have an adverse effect on our shareholders' equity. Although management believes it has implemented effective asset and liability management strategies to reduce the potential effects of changes in interest rates on our results of operations, any substantial, unexpected or prolonged change in market interest rates could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. Also, our interest rate risk modeling techniques and assumptions likely will not fully predict or capture the impact of actual interest rate changes on our balance sheet. See Item 7. "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations – Asset and Liability Management and Market Risk," in this Form 10-K for additional information.

Factors beyond our control can significantly influence the fair value of securities in our portfolio and can cause potential adverse changes to the fair value of these securities. These factors include, but are not limited to, ratings agency actions, defaults or other adverse events affecting the issuer or the underlying collateral, if any, of the security, changes in market interest rates, and continued instability in the capital markets. Additionally, financial markets may be adversely affected by the current or anticipated impact of military conflict, including the current wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, terrorism, or other geopolitical events. A need for additional liquidity may also require us to sell investment securities at depressed prices. These factors, among others, could result in an allowance for credit losses on investment securities, realized and/or unrealized losses in future periods, and declines in other comprehensive income, which could materially affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations. Determining an allowance for credit losses on investment securities requires complex, subjective judgments about the future financial performance and liquidity of the security's issuer and underlying collateral, if any, to assess the probability of receiving all contractual principal and interest payments due, and these estimates may differ significantly from actual future performance of the security.

We make various assumptions and judgments about the collectability of our loan portfolio, including the creditworthiness of our borrowers and the value of the real estate and other assets serving as collateral for the repayment of many of our loans. In determining the allowance for credit losses on loans, we review our loan portfolios, loss and delinquency trends, and economic conditions. If our assumptions are incorrect, our allowance for credit losses on loans may not be sufficient to cover incurred losses, resulting in additions to our allowance for credit losses on loans through the provision for credit losses on loans which is charged against income. Additionally, pursuant to our growth strategy, management recognizes that significant new loan growth, new loan products, new market areas, and the refinancing of existing loans, resulting in portfolios composed of unseasoned loans that may not perform in a historical or projected manner, may increase the risk that our allowance may be insufficient to absorb losses without significant additional provisions. Significant provisions to our allowance could materially decrease our net income. In addition, bank regulatory agencies periodically review our allowance for credit losses on loans and may require an increase in the provision for possible loan losses or the recognition of further loan charge-offs, based on judgments different than those of management. In addition, if charge-offs in future periods exceed the allowance for credit losses on loans, we will need additional provisions to replenish the allowance for credit losses on loans. Any additional provisions will result in a decrease in net income, and possibly capital, and may have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.