Our financial condition, cash flows, and results of operations depend on our ability to underwrite and set rates accurately for a full spectrum of risks. The role of the pricing function is to ensure that rates are adequate to generate sufficient premium to pay losses, loss adjustment expenses, and underwriting expenses, and to earn a profit. Pricing involves the acquisition and analysis of historical accident and loss data, and the projection of future accident trends, loss costs and expenses, and inflation trends, among other factors, for each of our products and in many different markets. As a result, our ability to price accurately is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including, without limitation:
- the availability of sufficient reliable data;- uncertainties inherent in estimates and assumptions, generally;- our ability to conduct a complete and accurate analysis of available data;- our ability to timely recognize changes in trends and to predict both the severity and frequency of future losses with reasonable accuracy, specifically, the costs of auto repair parts and labor and medical costs;- our ability to predict changes in certain operating expenses with reasonable accuracy;- the development, selection, and application of appropriate rating formulae or other pricing methodologies;- our ability to innovate with new pricing strategies, and the success of those innovations;- our ability to implement rate changes and obtain any required regulatory approvals on a timely basis;- our ability to predict policyholder retention accurately;- unanticipated court decisions, legislation, or regulatory action;- the occurrence and severity of catastrophic events, such as hurricanes, hail storms, other severe weather, and terrorist events;- our understanding of the impact of ongoing changes in our claim settlement practices; and - changing driving patterns.
The realization of one or more of such risks may result in our pricing being based on inadequate or inaccurate data or inappropriate analyses, assumptions, or methodologies, and may cause us to estimate incorrectly future changes in the frequency or severity of claims. As a result, we could underprice risks, which would negatively affect our underwriting profit margins, or we could overprice risks, which could reduce our volume and competitiveness. In either event, our operating results, financial condition, and cash flows could be materially adversely affected. In addition, underpricing insurance policies over time could erode the surplus of one or more of our insurance subsidiaries, constraining our ability to write new business.