Essent Group (ESNT) Risk Factors

We depend on reliable, consistent third-party servicing of the loans that we insure. Among other things, our mortgage insurance policies require our policyholders and their servicers to timely submit premium and monthly insurance in force and default reports and utilize commercially reasonable efforts to limit and mitigate loss when a loan is in default. If one or more servicers were to experience adverse effects to its business, such servicers could experience delays in their reporting and premium payment requirements. Without reliable, consistent third-party servicing, our insurance subsidiaries may be unable to correctly record new loans as they are underwritten, receive and process payments on insured loans and/or properly recognize and establish loss reserves on loans when a default exists or occurs but is not reported to us. In addition, if these servicers fail to limit and mitigate losses when appropriate, our losses may unexpectedly increase. Significant failures by large servicers or disruptions in the servicing of mortgage loans covered by our insurance policies would adversely impact our business, financial condition and operating results. Furthermore, we have delegated to the GSEs, who have in turn delegated to most of their servicers, authority to accept modifications, short sales and deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure on loans we insure. Servicers are required to operate under protocols established by the GSEs in accepting these loss mitigation alternatives. We are dependent upon servicers in making these decisions and mitigating our exposure to losses. In some cases, loss mitigation decisions favorable to the GSEs may not be favorable to us, and may increase the incidence of paid claims. Inappropriate delegation protocols or failure of servicers to service in accordance with the protocols may increase the magnitude of our losses and have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and operating results. Our delegation of loss mitigation decisions to the GSEs is subject to cancellation but exercise of our cancellation rights may have an adverse impact on our relationship with the GSEs and lenders.

Our success depends, in part, on the skills, working relationships and continued services of our senior management team. We have employment agreements with each of our senior executives. The departure of any of our key executives could adversely affect the conduct of our business. In such an event, we would be required to obtain other personnel to manage and operate our business, and there can be no assurance that we would be able to employ a suitable replacement for the departing individual, or that a replacement could be hired on terms that are favorable to us. Volatility or lack of performance in our share price may affect our ability to retain our key personnel or attract replacements should key personnel depart.

The private mortgage insurance industry is intensely competitive, with six private mortgage insurers currently approved and eligible to write business for the GSEs. We compete with other private mortgage insurers on the basis of pricing, terms and conditions, underwriting guidelines, loss mitigation practices, financial strength, reputation, customer relationships, service and other factors. One or more private mortgage insurers may seek increased market share from government-supported insurance programs, such as those sponsored by the FHA, or from other private mortgage insurers by reducing pricing, loosening their underwriting guidelines or relaxing their risk management practices, which could, in turn, improve their competitive position in the industry and negatively impact our level of NIW. A decline in industry NIW might result in increased competition as certain private mortgage insurance companies may seek to maintain their NIW levels within a smaller market. In addition, the perceived increase in the credit quality of loans that currently are being insured, the relative financial strength of the existing mortgage insurance companies and the possibility of the private mortgage insurance market acquiring a greater share of the overall mortgage insurance market may encourage new entrants into the private mortgage insurance industry, which could further increase competition in our business.

Our mortgage insurance business depends on our relationships with our customers, and in particular, our relationships with our largest lending customers. Our top ten customers generated 42.8% of our new insurance written, or NIW, during year ended December 31, 2019, compared to 43.5% and 45.8% for the years ended December 31, 2018 and 2017, respectively. For the year ended December 31, 2019, one customer represented more than 10% of our consolidated revenues. Maintaining our business relationships and business volumes with our largest lending customers remains critical to the success of our business. Our master policies do not, and by law cannot, require our customers to do business with us. Under the terms of our master policy, our customers, or the parties they designate to service the loans we insure, have the unilateral right to cancel our insurance coverage at any time for any loan that we insure. Upon cancellation of coverage, subject to the type of coverage, we may be required to refund unearned premiums, if any. In addition, if the U.S. economy enters into a recessionary period, these customers could become subject to serious financial constraints that may jeopardize the viability of their business plans or their access to additional capital, forcing them to consider alternatives such as bankruptcy or consolidation with others in the industry. Other factors, such as rising interest rates, which could reduce mortgage origination volumes generally, rising costs associated with regulatory compliance and the relative cost of capital, may also result in consolidation among our customers. In the event our customers consolidate, they may revisit their relationships with individual mortgage insurers, such as us, which could result in a loss of customers or a reduction in our business. The loss of business from a significant customer could have a material adverse effect on the amount of new business we are able to write, and consequently, our revenue, and we can provide no assurance that any loss of business from a significant customer would be replaced from other new or existing lending customers.

We provide contract underwriting services for certain of our customers, including on loans for which we are not providing mortgage insurance. For substantially all of the existing loans that were originated through our contract underwriting services, we have agreed that if we make a material error in providing these services and the error leads to a loss for the customer, the customer may, subject to certain conditions and limitations, claim a remedy. Accordingly, we have assumed some risk in connection with providing these services. We also face regulatory and litigation risk in providing these services.

An outbreak of COVID-19 is currently spreading throughout the world, including in Asia, Europe and the United States. This outbreak is unprecedented in modern history and continues to rapidly evolve and disrupt the global economy and financial markets, including the U.S. housing and mortgage markets. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak to be a pandemic, and on March 13, 2020, U.S. President Donald Trump declared the outbreak to be a national emergency. The rapid spread has resulted in authorities around the world implementing numerous measures to contain the virus, such as travel bans and restrictions, quarantines, shelter-in-place orders and business shutdowns. The pandemic and these containment measures have had, and are expected to continue to have, a substantial negative impact on businesses around the world and on global, regional and national economies. The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting containment measures have caused economic and financial disruptions that have adversely affected, and are expected to continue to materially adversely affect, our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity. The extent to which the pandemic will continue to materially adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity will depend on numerous evolving factors and future developments that we are not able to predict, including the duration, spread and severity of the outbreak; the nature, extent and effectiveness of containment measures; the extent and duration of the effect on the economy, unemployment, consumer confidence and consumer and business spending; and how quickly and to what extent normal economic and operating conditions can resume. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, there have been a number of governmental and GSE efforts to implement programs designed to assist individuals and businesses impacted by the virus. On March 27, 2020, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act, referred to as the CARES Act, was signed into law. The CARES Act provides financial assistance for businesses and individuals and targeted regulatory relief for financial institutions. Among many other things, the CARES Act suspends foreclosures and evictions for at least 60 days from March 18, 2020, on mortgages purchased or securitized by the GSEs. In addition, the CARES Act enacts into law a requirement to provide payment forbearance on such mortgages to borrowers experiencing a hardship during the COVID-19 emergency. Forbearance under the CARES Act allows for a mortgage payment to be suspended for up to 360 days due to hardship caused by COVID-19. The CARES Act also provides for enhanced unemployment benefits and direct aid to individuals, among other things. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the primary purchasers of mortgages we insure, have adopted relief measures consistent with the CARES Act to assist borrowers impacted by COVID-19. Under forbearance plans announced by the GSEs and implemented by their servicers, eligible homeowners who are adversely impacted by COVID-19 are permitted to temporarily reduce or suspend their mortgage payments for up to 12 months. The GSEs have announced that, at the end of the forbearance plan, the homeowner may not be required to pay back their reduced or suspended mortgage payments in one lump sum, but may be eligible for a number of different options offered by their mortgage servicer, including repayment plans, resuming normal payments or lowering the monthly loan payment through a modification. However, there can be no assurances that homeowners will be able to remain current on their mortgages once the forbearance period ends, and a significant percentage could ultimately default and result in a mortgage insurance claim despite the GSE and other programs. The COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures have contributed to, among other things: •The risk that policy losses and loss adjustment expenses we ultimately incur as a result of COVID-19 and the related economic impact may be substantially different than the loss reserves established on our financial statements at the end of each period. In accordance with industry practice and statutory accounting rules applicable to mortgage guaranty insurance companies, we establish loss reserves only for loans reported to us in default, including forbearance-related defaults. These reserves are established using estimated claim rates and claim amounts in estimating the ultimate loss, which estimates are subject to significant uncertainty given the unprecedented nature and magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, because our reserving method does not account for the impact of future losses that could occur from loans that are not yet delinquent, our obligation for ultimate losses that we expect to occur under our policies in force at any period end is not reflected in our financial statements, except in the case where a premium deficiency exists. •A deterioration in the ability and willingness of homeowners to continue to make mortgage payments on loans that we insure, which could result in an increase in the amount of insurance regulatory and PMIERs capital we are required to hold for delinquent loans, including forbearance-related delinquencies, as well as an increase in claims ultimately made with respect to such mortgage loans. Mortgage delinquencies are typically affected by a variety of borrower-specific factors, such as job loss, illness, death and divorce, and macroeconomic factors, such as rising unemployment, market deterioration and home price depreciation, many of which are likely exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. •A potential reduction in the number of new mortgage loans available for us to insure, and consequently, on our future volumes of new insurance written, with the degree of the impact dependent in large part on the extent and duration of the economic contraction. •Adverse impacts on capital, credit and reinsurance market conditions, which may limit our ability to issue ILNs, purchase reinsurance or access traditional financing methods. Such adverse impacts may increase our cost of capital and affect our ability to meet liquidity needs. •An increased strain on our risk management policies generally, including, but not limited to, the effectiveness and accuracy of our models, given the lack of data inputs and comparable precedent. •An increased risk to the value of our investments and other assets, which has the potential to result in impairment charges. •Adverse impacts on our daily business operations and our employees’ ability to perform necessary business functions, including as a result of illness or as a result of restrictions on movement. •Adverse impacts on our costs structure, including the need for increased staffing in certain segments of our business, increased spending on our business continuity efforts, such as technology, and readiness efforts for returning to our offices, which may in turn limit our ability to make investments in other areas. •An increased risk of an information or cyber-security incident, fraud, a failure to maintain the uninterrupted operation of our information systems or a failure in the effectiveness of our anti-money laundering and other compliance programs due to, among other things, an increase in remote work. The above impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures are likely to continue and in some cases, may worsen. The pandemic and containment measures may cause us to modify our strategic plans and business practices, and we may take further actions that we determine are in the best interests of our employees, customers and business partners. As a result of the above risks, COVID-19 could materially and adversely impact our business, results of operations, financial position and liquidity.

Our information technology systems may be vulnerable to physical or electronic intrusions, computer viruses or other attacks. As part of our business, we maintain large amounts of confidential information, including non-public personal information on consumers and our employees. Breaches in security could result in the loss or misuse of this information, which could, in turn, result in potential regulatory actions or litigation, including material claims for damages, interruption to our operations, damage to our reputation or otherwise have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and operating results. Although we believe that we have appropriate information security policies and systems in place in order to prevent unauthorized use or disclosure of confidential information, including non-public personal information, there can be no assurance that such use or disclosure will not occur.

Our business is highly dependent on the effective operation of our information technology systems, which are vulnerable to damage or interruption from power outages, computer and telecommunications failures, computer viruses, cyber-attacks, security breaches, catastrophic events and errors in usage. Although we have disaster recovery and business continuity plans in place, we may not be able to adequately execute these plans in a timely fashion. Additionally, we may not satisfy our customers' requirements if we fail to invest sufficient resources in, or otherwise are unable to maintain and upgrade our information technology systems. Because we rely on our information technology systems for many critical functions, including connecting with our customers, if such systems were to fail or become outmoded, we may experience a significant disruption in our operations and in the business we receive, which could negatively affect our operating results, financial condition and profitability.