Public companies are required to disclose risks that can affect the business and impact the stock. These disclosures are known as “Risk Factors”. Companies disclose these risks in their yearly (Form 10-K), quarterly earnings (Form 10-Q), or “foreign private issuer” reports (Form 20-F). Risk factors show the challenges a company faces. Investors can consider the worst-case scenarios before making an investment. TipRanks’ Risk Analysis categorizes risks based on proprietary classification algorithms and machine learning.
Deutsche Bank AG disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Deutsche Bank AG reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Risk Overview Q4, 2021
Risk Distribution
40% Legal & Regulatory
25% Finance & Corporate
21% Macro & Political
8% Production
4% Ability to Sell
2% Tech & Innovation
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
This chart displays the stock's most recent risk distribution according to category. TipRanks has identified 6 major categories: Finance & corporate, legal & regulatory, macro & political, production, tech & innovation, and ability to sell.
Risk Change Over Time
2020
Q4
S&P500 Average
Sector Average
Risks removed
Risks added
Risks changed
Deutsche Bank AG Risk Factors
New Risk (0)
Risk Changed (0)
Risk Removed (0)
No changes from previous report
The chart shows the number of risks a company has disclosed. You can compare this to the sector average or S&P 500 average.
The quarters shown in the chart are according to the calendar year (January to December). Businesses set their own financial calendar, known as a fiscal year. For example, Walmart ends their financial year at the end of January to accommodate the holiday season.
Risk Highlights Q4, 2021
Main Risk Category
Legal & Regulatory
With 19 Risks
Legal & Regulatory
With 19 Risks
Number of Disclosed Risks
48
+2
From last report
S&P 500 Average: 31
48
+2
From last report
S&P 500 Average: 31
Recent Changes
7Risks added
5Risks removed
9Risks changed
Since Dec 2021
7Risks added
5Risks removed
9Risks changed
Since Dec 2021
Number of Risk Changed
9
-4
From last report
S&P 500 Average: 3
9
-4
From last report
S&P 500 Average: 3
See the risk highlights of Deutsche Bank AG in the last period.
Risk Word Cloud
The most common phrases about risk factors from the most recent report. Larger texts indicate more widely used phrases.
Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 48
Legal & Regulatory
Total Risks: 19/48 (40%)Above Sector Average
Regulation13 | 27.1%
Regulation - Risk 1
We are subject to laws and other requirements relating to financial and trade sanctions and embargoes. If we breach such laws and requirements, we can be subject, and have in the past been subject, to material regulatory enforcement actions and penalties.
We are required to monitor, evaluate, and observe laws and other requirements relating to financial and trade sanctions and embargoes set by the EU, the Deutsche Bundesbank, Germany’s Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control, and other authorities, such as the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and the UK Treasury Department’s Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI). Sanctions are subject to rapid change and it is also possible that new direct or indirect secondary sanctions could be imposed by the United States or other jurisdictions without warning as a result of geopolitical developments. New and far-reaching sanctions against Russian entities and individuals have been imposed by the United States, the EU, the United Kingdom and other individual countries very rapidly following the commencement by Russia of hostilities against the Ukraine, and many of these sanctions require very rapid implementation. Should we fail to comply timely and in all respects with these new sanctions, we could be exposed to legal penalties and our reputation could suffer. New sanctions may also be imposed on other entities and individuals beyond the Ukrainian conflict at any time. If we breach any such new or preexisting laws and requirements, we can be subject, and have in the past been subject, to material regulatory enforcement actions and penalties.
Regulation - Risk 2
Changed
U.S. Congressional committees and other U.S. governmental entities have sought and may seek information from us concerning, among other topics, potential dealings between us and certain former members of the U.S. executive branch, including former President Trump, his family and other close associates, exposing us in particular to risk to our reputation and potential loss of business as a result of extensive media attention.
A number of media entities have reported that U.S. Congressional committees and other U.S. governmental entities are seeking or may seek information from us concerning, among other topics, potential dealings between the Bank and certain former members of the executive branch of the U.S. government, including former President Trump, his family, and other close associates. Attention surrounding such actual or potential requests and inquiries and our responses can create reputational and other risks that could have a material adverse effect on us. Our policy is to cooperate with all authorized government inquiries.
Regulation - Risk 3
Changed
Other regulatory reforms adopted or proposed in the wake of the financial crisis – for example, extensive new regulations governing our derivatives activities, compensation, bank levies, deposit protection, or data protection – may materially increase our operating costs and negatively impact our business model.
Beyond capital requirements and the other requirements discussed above, we are affected, or expect to be affected, by various additional regulatory reforms, including, among other things, regulations governing our derivatives activities, compensation, bank levies, deposit protection, or data protection. On August 16, 2012, the EU Regulation on over-the-counter (“OTC”) derivatives, central counterparties and trade repositories, referred to as European Market Infrastructure Regulation (“EMIR”), entered into force. EMIR introduced a number of requirements, including clearing obligations for certain classes of OTC derivatives and various reporting and disclosure obligations. EMIR implementation has led and may lead to changes that may negatively impact our profit margins. The revised Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (“MiFID”) and the corresponding Regulation (“MiFIR”) became applicable to us on January 3, 2018 and provide for, among other things, a trading obligation for those OTC derivatives which are subject to mandatory clearing and which are sufficiently standardized. On November 25, 2021, the European Commission published a proposal for a review of the MiFIR (referred to as the “MiFIR Review”) that entails amendments to the MiFIR and the MiFID. The proposals in the MiFIR Review, among other things, introduce an EU-wide consolidated tape for each asset class, enhanced transparency requirements for small trades in equities (such as shares) and for non-equities (such as derivatives and bonds), and adjust the scope of the EU share trading obligation and derivatives trading obligation. In the United States, the Dodd-Frank Act has numerous provisions that affect or may affect our operations. Pursuant to regulations implementing provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act, we provisionally registered as a swap dealer with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) and became subject to the CFTC’s extensive oversight. Regulation of swap dealers by the CFTC imposes numerous corporate governance, business conduct, capital, margin, reporting, clearing, execution and other regulatory requirements on us. It also requires us to comply with certain U.S. rules in some circumstances with respect to transactions conducted outside of the United States or with non-U.S. persons. Although the coverage of EMIR and CFTC regulations implementing the Dodd-Frank Act is in many ways similar, certain swaps may be subject to both regulatory regimes to a significant extent. Additionally, under the Dodd-Frank Act, security-based swaps are subject to a standalone regulatory regime under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). The SEC has implemented rules regarding registration, capital, risk-mitigation techniques, reporting, business conduct standards, trade acknowledgement and verification requirements, and cross-border requirements for security-based swap dealers that are generally similar to the CFTC’s rules for swap dealers. These rules generally came into effect in November 2021, the first compliance date for registration of security-based swap dealers. Pursuant to these rules, we are conditionally registered as a security-based swap dealer and are now subject to further regulation of our derivatives business. Pursuant to these CFTC and SEC regulations, there may be instances where we can comply with European and/or German requirements in lieu of complying with the U.S. regulatory requirements. These requirements under the Dodd-Frank Act may adversely affect our derivatives business and make us less competitive, especially as compared to competitors not subject to such regulation. In addition, the CRR/CRD IV legislative package provided for executive compensation reforms including caps on bonuses that may be awarded to “material risk takers” and other employees as defined therein and in the German Banking Act and other applicable rules and regulations such as the Remuneration Regulation for Institutions (Institutsvergütungsverordnung). Such restrictions on compensation, including the amendments introduced by the CRR II/CRD V/BRRD II reform package and any guidelines issued by the EBA to further implement them, could put us at a disadvantage to our competitors in attracting and retaining talented employees, especially compared to those outside the European Union that are not subject to these caps and other constraints. Following the financial crisis, bank levies have been introduced in some countries including, among others, Germany and the United Kingdom. We paid € 553 million for bank levies in 2021, € 633 million in 2020 and € 622 million in 2019. Also, we are required to contribute substantially to the Single Resolution Fund under the SRM (which is intended to reach by the end of 2023 a target level of 1 % of insured deposits of all banks in member states participating in the SRM) and the statutory deposit guarantee and investor compensation schemes under the recast European Union directive on deposit guarantee schemes (“DGS Directive”) and the European Union directive on investor compensation schemes. The DGS Directive defines a 0.8 % target level of prefunding by July 3, 2024 (similar to resolution funds), which has significantly increased the costs of the statutory deposit protection scheme. We also participate in the voluntary deposit protection provided by the private banks in Germany through the Deposit Protection Fund (Einlagensicherungsfonds) which is funded through contributions by its members. While the total impact of future levies cannot currently be quantified, they may have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations in future periods. Failure of banks, resolution measures and a decline of the value of the assets held by the SRM by the relevant DGS can cause an increase of contributions in order to replenish the shortfall. We are subject to the General Data Protection Regulation (“GDPR”) which has increased our regulatory obligations in connection with the processing of personal data, including requiring compliance with the GDPR’s data protection principles, the increased number of data subject rights and strict data breach notification requirements. The GDPR grants broad enforcement powers to supervisory authorities, including the potential to levy significant fines for non-compliance and provides for a private right of action for individuals who are affected by a violation of the GDPR. Compliance with the GDPR requires investment in appropriate technical and organizational measures and we may be required to devote significant resources to data protection on an ongoing basis. In the event that we are found to have not met the standards required by the GDPR we may incur damage to our reputation, the imposition by data protection supervisory authorities of significant fines or restrictions on our ability to process personal data, and we may be required to defend claims for compensation brought by affected individuals, all of which could have a material adverse effect on us. On November 27, 2019, the European Parliament and the Council adopted the Investment Firm Regulation and the Investment Firm Directive, which introduced substantive regulatory changes (including to the calculation of capital requirements) in respect of investment firms, such as our subsidiary DWS. The Investment Firm Regulation and the Investment Firm Directive (as implemented into German law) are in full force since June 26, 2021. A number of jurisdictions where the bank is active are starting to discuss rules related to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) aspects of our business and exposure. It is currently difficult to estimate how these rules could impact us.
Regulation - Risk 4
Changed
We have previously been the subject of industry-wide investigations by regulatory and law enforcement authorities relating to interbank and dealer offered rates, and are currently the subject of civil actions in this area. Due to a number of uncertainties, including those related to the high profile of the matters and other banks’ settlement negotiations, the eventual outcome of these matters is unpredictable, and may materially and adversely affect our results of operations, financial condition and reputation.
We have responded to requests for information from, and cooperated with, various regulatory and law enforcement authorities in connection with industry-wide investigations concerning the setting of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), Euro Interbank Offered Rate (EURIBOR), Tokyo Interbank Offered Rate (TIBOR) and other interbank and dealer offered rates. As previously reported, we paid € 725 million to the European Commission pursuant to a settlement agreement dated December 4, 2013 in relation to anticompetitive conduct in the trading of interest rate derivatives. Also as previously reported, on April 23, 2015, we reached settlements with the DOJ, the CFTC, FCA, and the New York State Department of Financial Services (“DFS”) to resolve investigations into misconduct concerning the setting of LIBOR, EURIBOR, and TIBOR. Under the terms of these agreements, we paid penalties of U.S.$ 2.175 billion to the DOJ, CFTC and DFS and GBP 226.8 million to the FCA. As part of the resolution with the DOJ, DB Group Services (UK) Limited (an indirectly held, wholly owned subsidiary of ours) pled guilty to one count of wire fraud in the U.S. District Court for the District of Connecticut and we entered into a Deferred Prosecution Agreement with a three-year term, which expired in 2018. On October 25, 2017, we entered into a settlement with a working group of U.S. state attorneys general resolving their interbank offered rate investigation. Among other conditions, we made a settlement payment of U.S.$ 220 million. The factual admissions we have made in connection with these settlements could make it difficult for us to defend against pending and future claims. In addition, we are party to 27 U.S. civil actions concerning alleged manipulation relating to the setting of various interbank and/or dealer offered rates, as well as actions pending in each of the UK, Argentina and Spain. Most of the civil actions, including putative class actions, are pending in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York (SDNY), against us and numerous other defendants. All but three of the U.S. civil actions were filed on behalf of parties who allege losses as a result of manipulation relating to the setting of U.S. dollar LIBOR. The three U.S. civil actions pending against us that do not relate to U.S. dollar LIBOR were also filed in the SDNY, and include one consolidated action concerning Pound Sterling (GBP) LIBOR, one action concerning Swiss franc (CHF) LIBOR, and one action concerning two Singapore Dollar (SGD) benchmark rates, the Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (SIBOR) and the Swap Offer Rate (SOR). We cannot predict the effect on us of the interbank and dealer offered rates matters, which could include damages from private litigation for which we may be liable.
Regulation - Risk 5
European and German legislation regarding the recovery and resolution of banks and investment firms could, if steps were taken to ensure our resolvability or resolution measures were imposed on us, significantly affect our business operations, and lead to losses for our shareholders and creditors.
Germany participates in the SRM, which centralizes at a European level the key competences and resources for managing the failure of any bank in member states of the European Union participating in the banking union. The SRM is based on the SRM Regulation and the BRRD, which was implemented in Germany through the German Recovery and Resolution Act. In addition, the German Resolution Mechanism Act (Abwicklungsmechanismusgesetz) adapted German bank resolution laws to the SRM. The SRM Regulation and the German Recovery and Resolution Act require the preparation of recovery and resolution plans for banks and grant broad powers to public authorities to intervene in a bank which is failing or likely to fail. For a bank directly supervised by the ECB, such as Deutsche Bank, the Single Resolution Board (referred to as the “SRB”) assesses its resolvability and may require legal and operational changes to the bank’s structure to ensure its resolvability. In the event that such bank is deemed by the ECB or the SRB as failing or likely to fail and certain other conditions are met, the SRB is responsible for adopting a resolution scheme for resolving the bank pursuant to the SRM Regulation. The European Commission and, to a lesser extent, the Council of the European Union, have a role in endorsing or objecting to the resolution scheme proposed by the SRB. The resolution scheme would be addressed to and implemented by the competent national resolution authorities (in Germany, the BaFin) in line with the national laws implementing the BRRD. Resolution measures that could be imposed upon a bank in resolution may include the transfer of shares, assets or liabilities of the bank to another legal entity, the reduction, including to zero, of the nominal value of shares, the dilution of shareholders or the cancellation of shares outright, or the amendment, modification or variation of the terms of the bank’s outstanding debt instruments, for example by way of a deferral of payments or a reduction of the applicable interest rate. Furthermore, certain eligible unsecured liabilities, in particular certain senior “non-preferred” debt instruments specified by the German Banking Act, may be written down, including to zero, or converted into equity (commonly referred to as “bail-in”) if the bank becomes subject to resolution. The SRM is intended to eliminate, or reduce, the need for public support of troubled banks. Therefore, financial public support for such banks, if any, would be used only as a last resort after having assessed and exploited, to the maximum extent practicable, the resolution powers, including a bail-in. The taking of actions to ensure our resolvability or the exercise of resolution powers by the competent resolution authority could materially affect our business operations and lead to a significant dilution of our shareholders or even the total loss of our shareholders’ or creditors’ investment.
Regulation - Risk 6
Our regulatory capital and liquidity ratios and our funds available for distributions on our shares or regulatory capital instruments will be affected by our business decisions and, in making such decisions, our interests and those of the holders of such instruments may not be aligned, and we may make decisions in accordance with applicable law and the terms of the relevant instruments that result in no or lower payments being made on our shares or regulatory capital instruments.
Our regulatory capital and liquidity ratios are affected by a number of factors, including decisions we make relating to our businesses and operations as well as the management of our capital position, of our risk-weighted assets and of our balance sheet in general, and external factors, such as regulations regarding the risk weightings we are permitted to allocate to our assets, commercial and market risks or the costs of our legal or regulatory proceedings. While we and our management are required to take into account a broad range of considerations in our and their managerial decisions, including the interests of the Bank as a regulated institution and those of our shareholders and creditors, particularly in times of weak earnings and increasing capital requirements, the regulatory requirements to build capital and liquidity may become paramount. Accordingly, in making decisions in respect of our capital and liquidity management, we are not required to adhere to the interests of the holders of instruments we have issued that qualify for inclusion in our regulatory capital, such as our shares or Additional Tier 1 capital instruments. We may decide to refrain from taking certain actions, including increasing our capital at a time when it is feasible to do so (through securities issuances or otherwise), even if our failure to take such actions would result in a non-payment or a write-down or other recovery- or resolution-related measure in respect of any of our regulatory capital instruments. Our decisions could cause the holders of such regulatory capital instruments to lose all or part of the value of their investments in these instruments due to their effect on our regulatory capital ratios, and such holders will not have any claim against us relating to such decisions, even if they result in a non-payment or a write-down or other recovery- or resolution-related measure in respect of such instruments they hold. In addition, our annual profit and distributable reserves form an important part of the funds available for us to pay dividends on our shares and make payments on our other regulatory capital instruments, as determined in the case of each such instrument by its terms or by operation of law, are calculated on an unconsolidated basis generally in accordance with German accounting rules set forth in the Commercial Code (Handelsgesetzbuch). Any adverse change in our financial prospects, financial position or profitability, or our distributable reserves, each as calculated on an unconsolidated basis, may have a material adverse effect on our ability to make dividend or other payments on these instruments. In addition, as part of the implementation of our strategy, we may record impairments that reduce the carrying value of subsidiaries on our unconsolidated balance sheet and reduce profits and distributable reserves. Future impairments or other events that reduce our profit or distributable reserves on an unconsolidated basis could lead us to be unable to make such payments in respect of future years in part or at all. In particular, the direct costs of our potential settlements of litigation, enforcement and similar matters, especially to the extent in excess of provisions we have established for them, and their related business impacts, if they occur, could impact such distributable amounts. In addition, German law places limits on the extent to which annual profits and otherwise-distributable reserves, as calculated on an unconsolidated basis, may be distributed to our shareholders or the holders of our other regulatory capital instruments, such as our Additional Tier 1 capital instruments. Our management also has, subject to applicable law, broad discretion under the applicable accounting principles to influence all amounts relevant for calculating funds available for distribution. Such decisions may impact our ability to make dividend or other payments under the terms of our regulatory capital instruments.
Regulation - Risk 7
In some cases, we are required to hold and calculate capital and to comply with rules on liquidity and risk management separately for our local operations in different jurisdictions, in particular in the United States.
We are required to hold and calculate capital and to comply with rules on liquidity and risk management separately for our local operations in different jurisdictions. In February 2014, the Federal Reserve Board adopted rules that set forth how the U.S. operations of certain foreign banking organizations (“FBOs”), such as Deutsche Bank, are required to be structured in the United States, as well as the enhanced prudential standards that apply to our U.S. operations. Under these rules, a large FBO with U.S.$ 50 billion or more in U.S. non-branch assets, such as Deutsche Bank, was required to establish or designate a separately capitalized top-tier U.S. intermediate holding company (an “IHC”) that would hold substantially all of the FBO’s ownership interests in its U.S. subsidiaries. On July 1, 2016, we designated DB USA Corporation as our IHC. In March 2018, we completed the partial initial public offering of our Asset Management division, to form DWS Group GmbH & Co. KGaA (“DWS”), in which we retain approximately 80 % of the shares. In April 2018, DWS USA Corporation was formed as a subsidiary of DWS, and, following receipt of Federal Reserve Board approval, we designated it as our second IHC, through which our U.S. asset management subsidiaries are held. Each of these IHCs is subject, on a consolidated basis, to the risk-based and leverage capital requirements under the U.S. Basel 3 capital framework, capital planning and stress testing requirements, U.S. liquidity buffer requirements and other enhanced prudential standards comparable to those applicable to large U.S. banking organizations. They are also subject to supplementary leverage ratio (“SLR”) requirements. The Federal Reserve Board has the authority to examine an IHC, such as DB USA Corporation and DWS USA Corporation, and its subsidiaries, as well as U.S. branches and agencies of FBOs, such as our New York branch. On October 10, 2019, the Federal Reserve Board finalized rules to categorize the U.S. operations of large FBOs based on size, complexity and risk for purposes of tailoring the application of the U.S. enhanced prudential standards (the “Tailoring Rules”). The Tailoring Rules do not significantly change the capital requirements that apply to DB USA Corporation or DWS USA Corporation although they provide the option to comply with certain simplifications to the capital requirements. However, the Tailoring Rules provide modest relief for our U.S. IHCs with respect to applicable liquidity requirements so long as our IHCs’ combined weighted short term wholesale funding remains below $75 billion. As a bank holding company with assets of U.S.$ 250 billion or more, Deutsche Bank AG is required under Title I of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010, as amended (the “Dodd-Frank Act”), and the implementing regulations thereunder to prepare and submit to the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”) either a full or targeted resolution plan (the “U.S. Resolution Plan”) on a timeline prescribed by such agencies. The U.S. Resolution Plan must demonstrate that Deutsche Bank AG has the ability to execute a strategy for the orderly resolution of its designated U.S. material entities and operations. For foreign-based companies subject to these resolution planning requirements such as Deutsche Bank AG, the U.S. Resolution Plan relates only to subsidiaries, branches, agencies and businesses that are domiciled in or whose activities are carried out in whole or in material part in the United States. Deutsche Bank’s U.S. Resolution Plan describes the single point of entry strategy for Deutsche Bank’s U.S. material entities and operations and prescribes that DB USA Corporation, our U.S. IHC, would provide liquidity and capital support to its U.S. material entity subsidiaries and ensure their solvent wind-down outside of applicable resolution proceedings. On December 9, 2020, the Federal Reserve Board and FDIC finalized guidance for the resolution plans of certain large foreign banks, including Deutsche Bank AG. In that guidance, the agencies tailored their expectations around resolution capital and liquidity, derivatives and trading activity, as well as payment, clearing, and settlement activities. The agencies also provided information to large banks, including Deutsche Bank AG, regarding additional content to be included in the 2021 U.S. resolution plans, which were required to be filed by December 17, 2021. Deutsche Bank’s ‘targeted’ 2021 U.S. Resolution Plan, the firm’s first ‘targeted plan’, includes core elements of the U.S. resolution strategy — such as capital, liquidity, and recapitalization strategies — as well as how Deutsche Bank has integrated lessons learned from its response to the COVID-19 pandemic into its resolution planning process. Deutsche Bank AG submitted its targeted 2021 U.S. Resolution Plan on December 13, 2021. If the Federal Reserve Board and the FDIC were to jointly deem Deutsche Bank’s U.S. Resolution Plan not credible and Deutsche Bank failed to remediate any deficiencies in the required timeframe prescribed by the Federal Reserve Board and FDIC, these agencies could impose restrictions on Deutsche Bank or require the restructuring or reorganization of businesses, legal entities, operational systems and/or intra-company transactions which could negatively impact our operations and/or strategy. Additionally, the Federal Reserve Board and FDIC could also subject Deutsche Bank to more stringent capital, leverage or liquidity requirements, or require Deutsche Bank to divest certain assets or operations. DB USA Corporation and DWS USA Corporation are each subject, on an annual basis, to the Federal Reserve Board’s supervisory stress testing and capital requirements. DB USA Corporation and DWS USA Corporation are also subject to the Federal Reserve’s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (“CCAR”), which is an annual supervisory exercise that assesses the capital positions and planning practices of large bank holding companies and IHCs. On June 24, 2021, the Federal Reserve Board publicly released the results of its annual supervisory stress test, which showed that DB USA Corporation and DWS USA Corporation would continue to have capital levels above minimum requirements even under the stress test’s severely adverse scenario. DB USA Corporation and DWS USA Corporation submitted their annual capital plans in April 2021 and will make their next capital plan submissions to the Federal Reserve Board in April 2022. If the Federal Reserve Board were to object to these capital plans we could be required to increase capital or restructure businesses in ways that may negatively impact our operations and strategy or could be subject to restrictions on growth in the United States. On March 4, 2020, the Federal Reserve Board issued a rule to amend its CCAR process to combine the CCAR quantitative assessment and the buffer requirements in the Federal Reserve Board’s capital rules to create an integrated capital buffer requirement. This final rule has eliminated the quantitative and qualitative ‘pass/fail’ assessments from CCAR and modified the static capital conservation buffer to incorporate an institution-specific stress capital buffer (SCB), which is floored at 2.5 %. The stress capital buffer equals (i) a bank holding company's projected peak-to-trough decline in common equity tier 1 capital under the annual CCAR supervisory severely adverse stress testing scenario prior to any planned capital actions, plus (ii) one year of planned common stock dividends. The stress capital buffer will be reset each year. On August 5, 2021, the Federal Reserve Board announced an SCB for each CCAR firm based on 2021 supervisory stress testing results, which for DB USA Corporation was 4.5 % and for DWS USA Corporation was 7.2 %. This SCB became effective October 1, 2021 and would generally remain in effect until September 30, 2022, at which point the size of the SCB for each of our IHCs will be recalibrated based on the results of the 2022 stress tests, which are expected to be released in June 2022. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, during the first six months of 2021, the Federal Reserve Board imposed additional restrictions on certain capital distributions for CCAR firms, separate from the SCB. These additional capital restrictions were lifted on July 1, 2021. The U.S. federal bank regulators in 2013 issued final rules implementing elements of the Basel 3 capital adequacy framework that are applicable to U.S. banking organizations. In September 2014, the Federal Reserve Board and other U.S. regulators approved a final rule implementing liquidity coverage ratio (“LCR”) requirements for large U.S. bank holding companies and certain of their subsidiary depositary institutions that are generally consistent with the Basel Committee’s revised Basel 3 liquidity standards. DB USA Corporation, DWS USA Corporation and our principal U.S. bank subsidiary, Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas (“DBTCA”), are subject to the LCR requirements. The Tailoring Rules reduced the LCR requirements applicable to these institutions from 100 to 85 percent coverage of net outflows over a projected 30-day period. On October 20, 2020, the Federal Reserve Board and other U.S. regulators finalized rules implementing the second element of the Basel 3 liquidity framework, the net stable funding ratio (“NSFR”). Under the Tailoring Rules, DB USA Corporation, DWS USA Corporation and DBTCA would be subject to an 85 percent NSFR so long as our IHCs’ combined weighted short term wholesale funding remains below $75 billion. Effective July 1, 2021, these firms are required to calculate the NSFR and meet the minimum required ratios on a daily basis. Beginning in 2023, these firms will be required to publicly report NSFR information on a periodic basis. On December 15, 2016, the Federal Reserve Board adopted final rules that implement the FSB’s TLAC standard in the United States. The final rules require, among other things, U.S. IHCs of non-U.S. G-SIBs, including our IHCs, DB USA Corporation and DWS USA Corporation, to maintain a minimum amount of TLAC, and separately require them to maintain a minimum amount of long-term debt meeting certain requirements. U.S. rules and interpretations, including those described above, could cause us to reduce assets held in the United States, or to inject capital and/or liquidity into or otherwise change the structure of our U.S. operations, and could also restrict the ability of our U.S. subsidiaries to pay dividends to us or the amount of such dividends. To the extent that we are required to reduce operations in the United States or deploy capital or liquidity in the United States that could be deployed more profitably elsewhere, these requirements could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. Any increased capital or liquidity requirements, including those described above, could have adverse effects on our business, financial condition and results of operations, as well as on perceptions in the market of our stability, particularly if any such requirement and results in our having to raise capital at a time when we or the financial markets are distressed, or take other measures to increase liquidity in certain jurisdictions due to local requirements. The measures we might be required or find necessary to take in response to these shifting local requirements may be inconsistent with, and hinder the achievement of, our strategic goals. In addition, if these regulatory requirements must be implemented more quickly than currently foreseen, we may decide that the quickest and most reliable path to compliance is to reduce the level of assets on our balance sheet, dispose of assets or otherwise segregate certain activities or reduce or close down certain business lines. The effects on our capital raising efforts in such a case could be amplified due to the expectation that our competitors, at least those subject to the same or similar capital requirements, would likely also be required to raise capital at the same time. Moreover, some of our competitors, particularly those outside the European Union, may not face the same or similar regulations, which could put us at a competitive disadvantage. In addition to these regulatory initiatives, market sentiment may encourage financial institutions such as Deutsche Bank to maintain significantly more capital, liquidity and loss-absorbing capital instruments than the regulatory-mandated minima, which could exacerbate the effects on us described above or, if we do not increase our capital to the encouraged levels, could lead to the perception in the market that we are undercapitalized relative to our peers generally. It is unclear whether the U.S. capital and other requirements described above, as well as similar developments in other jurisdictions, could lead to a fragmentation of supervision of global banks that could adversely affect our reliance on regulatory waivers allowing us to meet capital adequacy requirements, large exposure limits and certain organizational requirements on a consolidated basis only rather than on both a consolidated and non-consolidated basis. Should we no longer be entitled to rely on these waivers, we would have to adapt and take the steps necessary in order to meet regulatory capital requirements and other requirements on a consolidated as well as a non-consolidated basis, which could result also in significantly higher costs and potential adverse effects on our profitability and dividend paying ability.
Regulation - Risk 8
Regulatory reforms enacted and proposed in response to weaknesses in the financial sector, together with increased regulatory scrutiny more generally, have had and continue to have a significant impact on us and may adversely affect our business and ability to execute our strategic plans. Competent regulators may prohibit us from making dividend payments or payments on our regulatory capital instruments or take other actions if we fail to comply with regulatory requirements.
In response to the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, governments and regulatory authorities have worked to enhance the resilience of the financial services industry against future crises through changes to the regulatory framework. The pace of change of new proposals has slowed as the focus turns more to implementation of the various elements of the regulatory reform agenda outlined by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (“Basel Committee”) and other standard-setting bodies. As a result, there continues to be uncertainty for us and the financial industry in general, though the level of uncertainty is reduced from prior periods. The range of new (or revised) laws and regulations or current proposals includes, among other things: – provisions for more stringent regulatory capital, leverage and liquidity standards, – restrictions on compensation practices, – restrictions on proprietary trading and other investment services, – special bank levies, – recovery and resolution powers to intervene in a crisis including the “bail-in” of creditors, – tightened large exposure limits, – the creation of a single supervisory authority and a single resolution authority within the Eurozone and any other participating member states, – contributions to the Single Resolution Fund and prefunding of deposit guarantee schemes, – separation of certain businesses from deposit taking, – stress testing and capital planning regimes, – heightened reporting requirements, and – reforms of derivatives, other financial instruments, investment products and market infrastructures. As a core element of the reform of the regulatory framework, the Basel Committee developed and continuously refined and supplemented a comprehensive set of rules of minimum capital adequacy and liquidity standards as well as other rules, known as Basel 3. The initial set of rules was implemented into European and national (in our case, German) law beginning in 2014, with the European legislative package also referred to as “CRR/CRD IV” and the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (or “BRRD”), which provides for a resolution framework for banks. The set of rules was further strengthened with a comprehensive package of reforms in 2019 also referred to as “CRR II/CRD V” and “BRRD II”. The reform package also implemented certain regulatory proposals of the Financial Stability Board (“FSB”) regarding a requirement for global systemically important institutions (“G-SIIs”), such as Deutsche Bank, to hold certain minimum levels of capital and other instruments which are capable of bearing losses in resolution (“Total Loss-Absorbing Capacity” or “TLAC”). On October 27, 2021, the European Commission published a comprehensive package of reforms with respect to the European Union banking rules (referred to as the “Banking Package 2021”) to ensure that banks become more resilient to potential future economic shocks while contributing to the EU’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and its transition to climate neutrality. The proposals aim to amend the Capital Requirements Regulation (“CRR”), the Capital Requirements Directive (“CRD”) and the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (“BRRD”). If adopted, the proposals to amendment the CRR and CRD (commonly referred to as “CRR III” and “CRD VI”) will, in particular, finalize the implementation of the Basel 3 framework in the European Union and also fully implement the market risk capital changes in the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (“FRTB”). Another separate proposal entails combined amendments to the CRR and the BRRD with respect to the resolution regime. CRR III and CRD VI include, inter alia, a gradually introduced output floor establishing minimum risk-weighted assets that will ultimately be set at 72.5 % of the risk-weighted assets calculated under the standardized approach, changes to standardized and internal ratings-based approaches for determining credit risk, changes to the credit valuation adjustment, a revision of the approaches for operational risks and reforms to the market risk framework as set out in the FRTB, adjustments to the Pillar 2 requirements (“P2R”) and the systemic risk buffer and a “fit-and-proper” set of rules for senior staff managing banks. Other proposed measures are aimed to address sustainability risks by requiring banks to identify, disclose and manage environmental, social and governance risks as part of their risk management which includes regular climate stress testing by the banks’ supervisors. The proposal does not entail any adjustments to the capital requirements for green or brown assets. However, the European Commission stated that it is exploring this idea and has asked the European Banking Authority (“EBA”) to assess possible adjustments. It is expected that the EBA will provide its report in 2023. The proposals regarding the resolution regime include clarifications with respect to some aspects of the TLAC / minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities (“MREL”) regime in relation to single point of entry and multiple point of entry resolution strategies and, in particular, a deduction regime requiring intermediate parents to deduct from their own internal MREL capacity the amount of their holdings of internal MREL eligible instruments, including own funds, issued by their subsidiaries belonging to the same resolution group. The Banking Package 2021 will now be negotiated with EU lawmakers, i.e. the European Parliament and Member States. It is expected that CRR III and CRD VI will start entering into force in 2023 at the earliest with the new rules implementing Basel 3 to apply from January 1, 2025. The European Commission expects that the final implementation of the Basel 3 framework will lead to an increase in the capital requirements of European banks of less than 3 % on average at the beginning of the transitional period in 2025 and of less than 9 % at the end of such period in 2030. The implementation of the remaining outstanding proposals under Basel 3 as contained in the Banking Package 2021 has the potential to increase our risk-weighted assets and will likely affect our business by raising our regulatory capital and liquidity requirements and by leading to increased costs. Such requirements may be in addition to regulatory capital buffers that may also be increased or be in addition to those already imposed on us and could themselves materially increase our capital requirements. In addition, regulatory scrutiny of compliance with existing laws and regulations has become more intense and supervisory expectations remain significant. The specific effects of a number of new (or revised) laws and regulations remain uncertain because the drafting and implementation of these laws and regulations are still on-going and supervisory expectations continue to develop. Regulatory authorities have substantial discretion in how to regulate banks, and this discretion, and the means available to the regulators, have been steadily increasing during recent years. Regulation may be imposed on an ad hoc basis by governments and regulators in response to ongoing or future crises (such as the COVID-19 pandemic), and may especially affect financial institutions such as Deutsche Bank that are deemed to be systemically important. In particular, the regulators with jurisdiction over us, including the ECB under the Single Supervisory Mechanism (also referred to as the “SSM”), may, in connection with the supervisory review and evaluation process (“SREP”), SSM-wide reviews of asset quality or internal risk models or otherwise, conduct stress tests. They have discretion to impose capital surcharges on financial institutions for risks, including for litigation, regulatory and similar matters, that are not otherwise recognized in risk-weighted assets or other surcharges depending on the individual situation of the bank. Such adjustments may, for example, reflect additional risks posed by deficiencies in our control environment, or come as a result of supervisory inspections concerning the treatment of specific products or transactions. One of these areas in focus of the ECB with regard to risk taking is leveraged lending, for which the ECB has announced its intent to clarify their expectations for all banks under the SSM and to consider quantitative measures in future SREP decisions for institutions which the ECB assesses as non-compliant with these expectations. The ECB may take or require other measures, such as restrictions on or changes to our business. In this context, the ECB may impose, and has imposed, on us individual capital requirements resulting from the SREP which are referred to as P2R. Institutions must meet their P2R with at least 75 % of Tier 1 capital and at least 56.25 % of Common Equity Tier 1 capital. P2R must be fulfilled in addition to the statutory minimum capital and buffer requirements and any non-compliance may have immediate legal consequences such as restrictions on dividend payments. Also following the SREP, the ECB may communicate to individual banks, and has communicated to us, an expectation to hold a further Pillar 2 Common Equity Tier 1 capital add-on, the so-called Pillar 2 guidance (“P2G”). Although the P2G is not legally binding and failure to meet the P2G does not automatically trigger legal action, the ECB has stated that it generally expects banks to meet the P2G. In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, the ECB currently allows banks to operate temporarily below the level of capital defined by the P2G, but expects banks to operate above P2G again from January 1, 2023. Further, effective as of February 1, 2022, the BaFin set the amount of the countercyclical capital buffer (“CCyB”) for banks in Germany at 0.75 % of their total risk exposure amount. Banks have to comply with the new CCyB requirement from February 1, 2023. Also, more generally, competent regulators may, if we fail to comply with regulatory requirements, in particular with statutory minimum capital requirements or P2R, or if there are shortcomings in our governance and risk management processes, prohibit us from making dividend payments to shareholders or distributions to holders of our other regulatory capital instruments. This could occur, for example, if we fail to make sufficient profits due to declining revenues, or as a result of substantial outflows due to litigation, regulatory and similar matters. Generally, a failure to comply with the quantitative and qualitative regulatory requirements could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations, including our ability to pay out dividends to shareholders or distributions on our other regulatory capital instruments or, in certain circumstances, conduct business which we currently conduct or plan to conduct in the future.
Regulation - Risk 9
We operate in a highly and increasingly regulated and litigious environment, potentially exposing us to liability and other costs, the amounts of which may be substantial and difficult to estimate, as well as to legal and regulatory sanctions and reputational harm.
The financial services industry is among the most highly regulated industries. Our operations throughout the world are regulated and supervised by the central banks and regulatory authorities in the jurisdictions in which we operate. In recent years, regulation and supervision in a number of areas has increased, and regulators, law enforcement authorities, governmental bodies and others have sought to subject financial services providers to increasing oversight and scrutiny, which in turn has led to additional regulatory investigations or enforcement actions which are often followed by civil litigation. There has been a steep escalation in the severity of the terms which regulatory and law enforcement authorities have required to settle legal and regulatory proceedings against financial institutions, with settlements in recent years including unprecedented monetary penalties as well as criminal sanctions. As a result, we may continue to be subject to increasing levels of liability and regulatory sanctions, and may be required to make greater expenditures and devote additional resources to addressing these liabilities and sanctions. Regulatory sanctions may include status changes to local licenses or orders to discontinue certain business practices. We and our subsidiaries are involved in various litigation proceedings, including civil class action lawsuits, arbitration proceedings and other disputes with third parties, as well as regulatory proceedings and investigations by both civil and criminal authorities in jurisdictions around the world. We expect that the costs to us arising from the resolution of litigation, enforcement and similar matters pending against us to continue to be significant in the near to medium term and to adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. Litigation and regulatory matters are subject to many uncertainties, and the outcome of individual matters is not predictable with assurance. We may settle litigation or regulatory proceedings prior to a final judgment or determination of liability. We may do so for a number of reasons, including to avoid the cost, management efforts or negative business, regulatory or reputational consequences of continuing to contest liability, even when we believe we have valid defenses to liability. We may also do so when the potential consequences of failing to prevail would be disproportionate to the costs of settlement. Furthermore, we may, for similar reasons, reimburse counterparties for their losses even in situations where we do not believe that we are legally compelled to do so. The financial impact of legal risks might be considerable but may be difficult or impossible to estimate and to quantify, so that amounts eventually paid may exceed the amount of provisions made or contingent liabilities assessed for such risks. Actions currently pending against us or our current or former employees may not only result in judgments, settlements, fines or penalties, but may also cause substantial reputational harm to us. The risk of damage to our reputation arising from such proceedings is also difficult or impossible to quantify. Regulators have increasingly sought admissions of wrongdoing in connection with settlement of matters brought by them. This could lead to increased exposure in subsequent civil litigation or in consequences under so-called "bad actor" laws, in which persons or entities determined to have committed offenses under some laws can be subject to limitations on business activities under other laws, as well as adverse reputational consequences. In addition, the U.S. Department of Justice (“DOJ”) conditions the granting of cooperation credit in civil and criminal investigations of corporate wrongdoing on the company involved having provided to investigators all relevant facts relating to the individuals responsible for the alleged misconduct. This policy may result in increased fines and penalties if the DOJ determines that we have not provided sufficient information about applicable individuals in connection with an investigation. Other governmental authorities could adopt similar policies. In addition, the financial impact of legal risks arising out of matters similar to some of those we face have been very large for a number of participants in the financial services industry, with fines and settlement payments greatly exceeding what market participants may have expected and, as noted above, escalating steeply in recent years to unprecedented levels. The experience of others, including settlement terms, in similar cases is among the factors we take into consideration in determining the level of provisions we maintain in respect of these legal risks. Developments in cases involving other financial institutions in recent years have led to greater uncertainty as to the predictability of outcomes and could lead us to add to our provisions. Moreover, the costs of our investigations and defenses relating to these matters are themselves substantial. Further uncertainty may arise as a result of a lack of coordination among regulators from different jurisdictions or among regulators with varying competencies in a single jurisdiction, which may make it difficult for us to reach concurrent settlements with each regulator. Should we be subject to financial impacts arising out of litigation and regulatory matters to which we are subject in excess of those we have calculated in accordance with our expectations and the relevant accounting rules, our provisions in respect of such risks may prove to be materially insufficient to cover these impacts. This could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition or reputation as well as on our ability to maintain capital, leverage and liquidity ratios at levels expected by market participants and our regulators. In such an event, we could find it necessary to reduce our risk-weighted assets (including on terms disadvantageous to us) or substantially cut costs to improve these ratios, in an amount corresponding to the adverse effects of the provisioning shortfall.
Regulation - Risk 10
Added
We have received requests for information from regulatory and law enforcement authorities concerning our anti-financial crime controls, including in the United States. In the event that violations of law or regulation are found to have occurred, legal and regulatory sanctions in respect thereof may materially and adversely affect our results of operations, financial condition and reputation.
We have received requests for information from regulatory and law enforcement authorities concerning our anti-financial crime controls over the past several years, both generally and in connection with specific clients, counterparties or incidents, including in the United States. Among the areas within the scope of these inquiries are client onboarding and KYC processes, transaction monitoring systems and procedures, processes concerning the decision to file or not to file a suspicious activity report, escalation procedures, and other related processes and procedures. The Bank is cooperating in these investigations. In the event that violations of law or regulation are found to have occurred, legal and regulatory sanctions in respect thereof may materially and adversely affect our results of operations, financial condition and reputation.
Regulation - Risk 11
Added
We have received requests for information from regulatory and law enforcement authorities concerning certain former correspondent banking relationships, including Danske Bank, exposing us in particular to risk to our reputation and potential loss of business as a result of extensive media attention. In the event that violations of law or regulation are found to have occurred, legal and regulatory sanctions in respect thereof may materially and adversely affect our results of operations, financial condition and reputation.
We have received requests for information from regulatory and law enforcement authorities concerning certain former correspondent banking relationships, including Danske Bank. We are providing information to and otherwise cooperating with the investigating authorities. We have also completed an internal investigation focused on the Bank’s historical processing of correspondent banking transactions on behalf of customers of Danske Bank’s Estonia branch prior to cessation of the correspondent banking relationship with that branch in 2015, including of whether any violations of law, regulation or Bank policy occurred, and the effectiveness of the related internal control environment. Additionally, on September 24 and 25, 2019, based on a search warrant issued by the Local Court (Amtsgericht) in Frankfurt, the Frankfurt Public Prosecutor’s (“FPP’s”) office conducted investigations into Deutsche Bank in connection with suspicious activity reports relating to potential money laundering at Danske Bank. On October 13, 2020, the FPP closed its criminal investigation because the FPP did not find sufficient evidence to substantiate the money laundering suspicion. However, the Bank agreed to pay an administrative fine of € 13.5 million to the FPP for failing to submit suspicious activity reports (SARs) in Germany in a timely fashion, which it paid in the fourth quarter of 2020. On July 7, 2020, the DFS issued a Consent Order, finding that Deutsche Bank violated New York State banking laws in connection with its relationships with three former Deutsche Bank clients, Danske Bank’s Estonia branch, Jeffrey Epstein and FBME Bank, and imposing a US$ 150 million civil penalty in connection with these three former relationships, which Deutsche Bank paid in the third quarter of 2020. On July 15, 2020, Deutsche Bank was named as a defendant in a securities class action filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey, alleging that the Bank made material misrepresentations regarding the effectiveness of its AML controls and related remediation. The complaint cites allegations regarding control deficiencies raised in the DFS Consent Order related to the Bank’s relationships with Danske Bank’s Estonia branch, Jeffrey Epstein and FBME Bank. On September 30, 2020, the plaintiff filed an amended complaint that included additional allegations regarding the effectiveness of the Bank’s AML controls. On December 28, 2020, the court appointed lead plaintiff and lead counsel. The lead plaintiff filed a second amended complaint on March 1, 2021. On April 23, 2021, the Bank filed a motion to transfer the action, or in the alternative, to dismiss the second amended complaint. Briefing on these motions concluded on July 1, 2021. Media and market attention surrounding these matters can create reputational risks in particular, even if our investigations and those of our regulators and the authorities do not result in evidence of wrongdoing. We could in particular suffer diminished volumes of business as a result, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.
Regulation - Risk 12
Added
Scrutiny of regulators and courts in respect of the protection of retail customers has increased in particular with respect to the enforceability and transparency of standard business terms and compensation for alleged damages.
In the recent past, regulators and courts have put further emphasis on the protection of retail customers. Examples of this are (i) the BaFin’s general order of June 21, 2021, pursuant to which credit institutions must inform customers of certain invalid interest rate adjustment clauses in their standard business terms; (ii) the German Federal Court of Justice’s (BGH) decision of April 27, 2021, according to which typical clauses in the standard business terms of banks providing for deemed consent to proposed amendments if the customer does not object within a certain period are unenforceable; and (iii) the FX mortgages loan cases in Poland, which constitute an industry-wide and highly disputed and litigated issue, where courts have found that certain mortgage loan agreements in foreign currencies include unfair conditions and are therefore unenforceable. Customer restitution practices in respect of such matters have varied significantly across the industry, and it our practices differ from accepted norms, we may be subject to civil or regulatory claims. These matters may result in the imposition of additional costs to us or require us to reimburse or pay damages to clients.
Regulation - Risk 13
Changed
Regulatory and legislative changes require us to maintain increased capital and bail-inable debt (debt that can be bailed in in resolution) and abide by tightened liquidity requirements. These requirements may significantly affect our business model, financial condition and results of operations, as well as the competitive environment generally. Any perceptions in the market that we may be unable to meet our capital or liquidity requirements with an adequate buffer, or that we should maintain capital or liquidity in excess of these requirements, or any other failure to meet these requirements, could intensify the effect of these factors on our business and results.
The implementation of the CRR/CRD IV legislative package resulted, among other things, in increased capital and tightened liquidity requirements, including additional capital buffer requirements which were gradually phased in through January 1, 2019. Further revisions, such as stricter rules on the measurement of risks and the changes introduced by the CRR II/CRD V/BRRD II reform package increased risk-weighted assets and the corresponding capital demand for banks, as well as tightened liquidity requirements (such as the introduction of a binding Net Stable Funding Ratio (“NSFR”)). In addition, the introduction of a binding leverage ratio (including the leverage ratio buffer) affected our business model, financial conditions and results of operations. Furthermore, under the SRM Regulation, the BRRD and the German Recovery and Resolution Act (Sanierungs- und Abwicklungsgesetz), we are required to meet at all times a robust MREL which is determined on a case-by-case basis by the competent resolution authority. In addition, the CRR II/CRD V/BRRD II reform package implemented the FSB’s TLAC standard for global systemically important banks (“G-SIBs”, such as us) by introducing a Pillar 1 MREL requirement for G-SIIs (the European equivalent term for G-SIBs). This requirement is based on both risk-based and non-risk-based denominators and will be set at the higher of 18 % of total risk exposure and 6.75 % of the leverage ratio exposure measure. It can be met with Tier 1 or Tier 2 capital instruments or debt that meets specific eligibility criteria. Deduction rules apply for holdings by G-SIIs of TLAC instruments of other G-SIIs. In addition, the competent authorities have the ability to impose on G-SIIs individual MREL requirements that exceed the statutory minimum requirements. As described above, the European Commission included clarifications with respect to the TLAC / MREL regime in its legislative proposals of October 27, 2021. Both the TLAC (or Pillar 1 MREL) and MREL requirements are specifically designed to require banks to maintain a sufficient amount of instruments which are eligible to absorb losses in resolution with the aim of ensuring that failing banks can be resolved without recourse to taxpayers’ money. To that end, in order to facilitate the meeting of TLAC requirements by German banks, obligations of German banks under certain specifically defined senior unsecured debt instruments issued by them (such as bonds that are not structured debt instruments) rank, since 2017, junior to all other outstanding unsecured unsubordinated obligations of such bank (such as deposits, derivatives, money market instruments and certain structured debt instruments), but continue to rank in priority to contractually subordinated debt instruments (such as Tier 2 instruments). As part of the harmonization of national rules on the priority of claims of banks’ creditors in the European Union, the BRRD allows banks to issue “senior non-preferred” debt instruments ranking according to their terms (and not only statutorily) junior to the bank’s other unsubordinated debt instruments (including bonds that are not treated as “senior non-preferred” debt instruments), but in priority to the bank’s contractually subordinated liabilities (such as Tier 2 instruments). Any such “senior non-preferred” debt instruments issued by Deutsche Bank AG under such rules rank on parity with its then outstanding “senior non-preferred” debt instruments under the prior rules. This BRRD amendment was finalized and implemented into German law as of July 21, 2018. The need to comply with these requirements may affect our business, financial condition and results of operation and in particular may increase our financing costs. We may not have sufficient capital or other loss-absorbing liabilities to meet these increasing regulatory requirements. This could occur due to regulatory changes and other factors, such as our inability to issue new securities which are recognized as regulatory capital or loss-absorbing liabilities under the new standards, due to an increase of risk-weighted assets based on more stringent rules for the measurement of risks or as a result of a future decline in the value of the euro as compared to other currencies, due to stricter requirements for the compliance with the non-risk based leverage ratio, due to any substantial losses we may incur, which would reduce our retained earnings, a component of Common Equity Tier 1 capital, or due to a combination of these or other factors. If we are unable to maintain sufficient capital to meet the applicable minimum capital ratios, the buffer requirements, any specific Pillar 2 capital requirements, leverage ratio requirements, or TLAC or MREL requirements, we may become subject to enforcement actions and/or restrictions on the pay-out of dividends, share buybacks, payments on our other regulatory capital instruments, and discretionary compensation payments. In addition, any requirement to increase risk-based capital ratios or the leverage ratio could lead us to adopt a strategy focusing on capital preservation and creation over revenue generation and profit growth, including the reduction of higher margin risk-weighted assets. If we are unable to increase our capital ratios to the regulatory minimum in such a case or by raising new capital through the capital markets, through the reduction of risk-weighted assets or through other means, we may be required to activate our group recovery plan. If these actions or other private or supervisory actions do not restore capital ratios to the required levels, and we are deemed to be failing or likely to fail, competent authorities may apply resolution powers under the Single Resolution Mechanism (“SRM”) and applicable rules and regulations, which could lead to a significant dilution of our shareholders’ or even the total loss of our shareholders’ or creditors’ investment. The CRR introduced a liquidity coverage requirement intended to ensure that banks have an adequate stock of unencumbered high quality liquid assets that can be easily and quickly converted into cash to meet their liquidity needs for a 30-calendar day liquidity stress scenario. The required liquidity coverage ratio (“LCR”) is calculated as the ratio of a bank’s liquidity buffer to its net liquidity outflows. Also, banks must regularly report the composition of the liquid assets in their liquidity buffer to their competent authorities. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the ECB temporarily allowed banks to operate below the minimum LCR. On December 17, 2021, the ECB announced that it expects banks to operate again with a LCR of above 100 % as from January 1, 2022. In addition, the CRR II/CRD V/BRRD II reform package introduced the NSFR to reduce medium- to long-term funding risks by requiring banks to fund their activities with sufficiently stable sources of funding over a one-year period. The NSFR, which applies since June 28, 2021, is defined as the ratio of a bank’s available stable funding relative to the amount of required stable funding over a one-year period. Banks must maintain an NSFR of at least 100 %. The ECB may impose on individual banks liquidity requirements which are more stringent than the general statutory requirements if the bank’s continuous liquidity would otherwise not be ensured. The NSFR applies to both the Group as a whole and to individual SSM regulated entities, including the parent entity Deutsche Bank AG. If we fail to meet liquidity requirements, we may become subject to enforcement actions. In addition, any requirement to maintain or increase liquidity could lead us to reduce activities that pursue revenue generation and profit growth. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 EU-wide stress test by the EBA and the ECB took place in 2021. This test was designed to provide supervisors, banks and other market participants with a common analytical framework to compare and assess, the resilience of EU banks over a three-year horizon under both a baseline and an adverse scenario, which is characterized by severe shocks taking into account the impact of the pandemic. The stress test was conducted on a sample of 50 EU banks, including Deutsche Bank and the results were published on July 30, 2021. By its standard procedures, the ECB considers our quantitative performance in the adverse scenario as an input when reconsidering the level of the Pillar 2 guidance in its 2021 SREP assessment and our qualitative performance as one aspect when holistically reviewing the P2R. Following the 2021 SREP, Deutsche Bank has been informed by the ECB that, from March 1, 2022 onwards, we are required, on a consolidated basis, to maintain an unchanged P2R of 2.50 %. The next EU-wide stress test will be carried out in 2023.
Litigation & Legal Liabilities5 | 10.4%
Litigation & Legal Liabilities - Risk 1
Changed
We have investigated the circumstances around equity trades entered into by certain clients in Moscow and London and have advised regulatory and law enforcement authorities in several jurisdictions about those trades. In the event that violations of law or regulation are found to have occurred, any resulting penalties against us may materially and adversely affect our results of operations, financial condition and reputation.
We have investigated the circumstances around equity trades entered into by certain clients with us in Moscow and London. The total volume of transactions reviewed is significant. Our internal investigation of potential violations of law, regulation and policy and into the related internal control environment has concluded, and we have assessed the findings identified during the investigation; to date we have identified certain violations of our policies and deficiencies in our control environment. We have advised regulatory and law enforcement authorities in several jurisdictions (including Germany, Russia, the UK and the United States) of this investigation and have taken disciplinary measures with regard to certain individuals in this matter. On January 30 and 31, 2017, the DFS and FCA announced settlements with the Bank related to their investigations into this matter. The settlements conclude the DFS and the FCA’s investigations into the Bank’s AML control function in its investment banking division, including in relation to the equity trading described above. Under the terms of the settlement agreement with the DFS, Deutsche Bank entered into a consent order, and agreed to pay civil monetary penalties of U.S.$ 425 million and to engage an independent monitor for a term of up to two years. Under the terms of the settlement agreement with the FCA, we agreed to pay civil monetary penalties of approximately GBP 163 million. On May 30, 2017, the Federal Reserve announced its settlement with us resolving this matter as well as additional AML issues identified by the Federal Reserve. We paid a penalty of U.S.$ 41 million. We also agreed to retain independent third parties to assess our Bank Secrecy Act/AML program and review certain foreign correspondent banking activity of DBTCA. We were also required to submit written remediation plans and programs. We continue to cooperate with regulators and law enforcement authorities, including the DOJ which has its own ongoing investigation into these securities trades. In the event that violations of law or regulation are found to have occurred, legal and regulatory sanctions in respect thereof may materially and adversely affect our results of operations, financial condition and reputation.
Litigation & Legal Liabilities - Risk 2
We have entered into a deferred prosecution agreement (DPA) with the DOJ concerning our historical engagements of finders and consultants and precious metals spoofing. If we violate the DPA, its term could be extended, or we could be subject to criminal prosecution or other actions, any of which could result in additional fines, penalties, settlements, payments or other materially adverse impacts to us.
On January 8, 2021, we entered into a deferred prosecution agreement (DPA) with the DOJ concerning our historical engagements of finders and consultants and, as part of our obligations in the DPA, agreed to pay approximately U.S.$ 80 million in connection with this conduct. The DPA with the DOJ also involved a resolution involving precious metals spoofing. As part of our obligations in the DPA relating to precious metals, we agreed to pay approximately U.S.$ 8 million, of which approximately U.S.$ 6 million would be credited by virtue of our 2018 resolution with the CFTC. On the same day, we also reached a settlement with the SEC to resolve its investigation into conduct regarding our compliance with the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act with respect to our engagement of finders and consultants. We agreed to pay approximately U.S.$ 43 million in this SEC settlement. If we violate the DPA, its term could be extended, or we could be subject to criminal prosecution or other actions, any of which could result in additional fines, penalties, settlements, payments or other materially adverse impacts to us. On February 28, 2022, following a finding by the DOJ that the Bank violated the 2021 DPA based on untimely reporting by the Bank of certain allegations relating to ESG-related information at the Bank’s subsidiary DWS, the Bank agreed with the DOJ to extend an existing monitorship and abide by the terms of a prior deferred prosecution agreement until February 2023 to allow the monitor to certify to the Bank’s implementation of the related internal controls. The DOJ has reserved all rights to take further action regarding the 2021 DPA if it deems necessary.
Litigation & Legal Liabilities - Risk 3
We are currently the subject of industry-wide inquiries and investigations by regulatory and law enforcement authorities relating to transactions of clients in German shares around the dividend record dates for the purpose of obtaining German tax credits or refunds in relation to withholding tax levied on dividend payments (so-called cum-ex transactions). In addition, we are exposed to potential tax liabilities and to the assertion of potential civil law claims by third parties, e.g. former counterparties, custodian banks, investors and other market participants, including as a consequence of criminal judgements in criminal proceedings in which we are not directly involved. The eventual outcome of these matters is unpredictable, and may materially and adversely affect our results of operations, financial condition and reputation.
The Public Prosecutor in Cologne (Staatsanwaltschaft Köln, "CPP") has been conducting a criminal investigation since August 2017 concerning two former employees of Deutsche Bank in relation to cum-ex transactions of certain former clients of the Bank. At the end of May and beginning of June 2019, the CPP broadened the investigation proceedings against further current and former employees and former Management Board members of the Bank. In July 2020, in the course of inspecting the CPP’s investigation file, Deutsche Bank learned that the CPP had further extended its investigation in June 2019 to include further current and former Deutsche Bank personnel, including one former Management Board member and one current Management Board member. It is difficult to predict how the proceeding will further develop. Deutsche Bank is a potential secondary participant (Nebenbeteiligte) in these proceedings and the proceedings could result in a disgorgement of profits and fines. In May 2021, Deutsche Bank learned through an information request received by Deutsche Oppenheim Family Office AG (“DOAG”) as legal successor of Sal. Oppenheim jr. & Cie. AG & Co. KGaA (“Sal. Oppenheim”) that the CPP in 2021 opened a criminal investigation proceeding in relation to cum-ex transactions against unknown former personnel of Sal. Oppenheim. DOAG provided the requested information on September 13 and October 15, 2021. There is a risk that the proceedings lead to a formal indictment and criminal prosecution of accused individuals. Also, Deutsche Bank and or DOAG could be included in criminal court proceedings as a secondary participant or a party subject to criminal confiscation (Einziehungsbeteiligte). Increased media attention surrounding the cum-ex topic as well as any future criminal judgement that is unfavorable to the Bank can create reputational risks. The imposition of fines and the disgorgement of profits or criminal confiscations could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition or results of operations. We are further exposed to the assertion of potential tax and civil law recourse and compensation claims by German tax authorities and third parties. Deutsche Bank acted as participant in and filed withholding tax refund claims through the electronic refund procedure (elektronisches Datenträgerverfahren) on behalf of, inter alia, two former custody clients in connection with their cum-ex transactions. In February 2018, Deutsche Bank received from the German Federal Tax Office (Bundeszentralamt für Steuern, "FTO") a demand of approximately € 49 million for tax refunds paid to a former custody client. On December 20, 2019, Deutsche Bank received a liability notice from the FTO requesting payment of € 2.1 million by January 29, 2020 in connection with tax refund claims Deutsche Bank had submitted on behalf of another former custody client. In 2020, Deutsche Bank made the requested payment and filed an objection against the liability notice. On December 3, 2020, Deutsche Bank received another hearing letter from the FTO in relation to the € 2.1 million liability notice to which Deutsche Bank responded on April 16, 2021. On July 28, 2021, Deutsche Bank received a letter from the FTO stating that the revised tax assessment notice dated December 2019 was not a valid administrative act as it could not be served to Deutsche Bank’s client due to its liquidation already in 2016. On the same day, FTO issued another liability notice to Deutsche Bank arguing that it issued incorrect tax certificates. The € 2.1 million payment made by Deutsche Bank under the first liability notice was offset by FTO in the second liability notice. Thus, no further payments were made by Deutsche Bank. Deutsche Bank objected to the second liability notice on August 31, 2021 and filed the reasoning on October 14, 2021. On November 9, 2021, it submitted a further brief in this matter. In the event that the FTO issues the liability notice announced in February 2018 or further liability notices and to the extent Deutsche Bank is eventually liable under the liability notices, this would expose the Bank to potential financial losses and could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations. As regards civil law claims, The Bank of New York Mellon SA/NV ("BNY") – as a parent of two companies acting as depot bank and fund administrator which Deutsche Bank acquired in 2010 and sold to BNY later in 2010 – has informed Deutsche Bank of its intention to assert indemnification claims under a contractual tax indemnity provision for potential cum-ex related tax liabilities incurred by these companies. BNY estimates the potential tax liability to amount to up to € 120 million. In November and December 2020, counsel to BNY informed Deutsche Bank that certain BNY entities (among others) have received notices from tax authorities regarding the estimated amount with respect to cum-ex related trades by certain investment funds in 2009 and 2010. BNY has filed objections against the notices. On February 6, 2019, the Regional Court (Landgericht) Frankfurt am Main served Deutsche Bank with a claim by M.M.Warburg & CO Gruppe GmbH and M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA (together “Warburg”) in connection with cum-ex transactions of Warburg with a custody client of Deutsche Bank during 2007 to 2011. Warburg claimed from Deutsche Bank indemnification against German taxes in relation to transactions conducted in the years 2007 to 2011. Further, Warburg claimed compensation of unspecified damages relating to these transactions. Based on the tax assessment notices received for 2007 to 2011, Warburg claimed a total of € 250 million (of which € 166 million is in relation to taxes and € 84 million is in relation to interest). On March 20, 2020, Warburg extended its claim against Deutsche Bank to indemnify Warburg in relation to the € 176 million (thereof € 166 million in relation to taxes and € 10 million in relation to interest) criminal confiscation order issued by the Regional Court Bonn in the criminal cum-ex trial on March 18, 2020 regarding the same transactions. On July 28, 2021 the German Federal Court of Justice (BGH) confirmed the criminal confiscation. On September 23, 2020 the Frankfurt Regional Court fully dismissed Warburg’s claim against Deutsche Bank on the grounds that Warburg as the tax debtor (Steuerschuldner) is primarily liable and cannot request payment from Deutsche Bank. The court further held that any claims are time-barred. On October 29, 2020, Warburg appealed the decision with the Higher Regional Court (Oberlandesgericht) Frankfurt am Main. Following appellate briefs by Warburg and Deutsche Bank the hearing of the appeal proceeding took place on November 3, 2021. On December 1, 2021, Warburg reduced its claim from the first instance proceeding. Warburg now claims € 86 million (thereof € 63 million in relation to taxes and € 23 million in relation to interest). Further, Warburg claims an amount of € 54 million in relation to the criminal confiscation. A further hearing took place on January 26, 2022. In a judgment dated March 2, 2022, the Higher Regional Court (Oberlandesgericht) Frankfurt am Main fully dismissed Warburg’s appeal. The court did not admit an appeal of its decision to the German Federal Court of Justice (BGH). Warburg may file an appeal against this non-admission (Nichtzulassungsbeschwerde). On January 25, 2021, the Regional Court (Landgericht) Hamburg served Deutsche Bank with a claim by Warburg Invest Kapitalanlagegesellschaft mbH (“Warburg Invest”) in relation to transactions of two investment funds in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Warburg Invest was fund manager for both funds. Warburg Invest claims, from Deutsche Bank together with several other parties as joint and several debtors (Gesamtschuldner), indemnification against German taxes in relation to cum-ex transactions conducted by the two funds. Further, Warburg Invest claims compensation of unspecified damages relating to these transactions. In November 2020, Warburg Invest received a tax liability notice from tax authorities for one of the funds in the amount of € 61 million. Based on publicly available information Deutsche Bank estimates the tax amount for the second fund to be approximately € 49 million. Warburg Invest filed its claim against several parties including Deutsche Bank inter alia based on an allegation of intentional damage contrary to public policy (Section 826 German Civil Code) and the accusation that Deutsche Bank participated in a business model that was contrary to public policy (sittenwidriges Geschäftsmodell). On July 5, 2021, Deutsche Bank submitted its defense statement to the court. On December 31, 2021, two other defendants of the proceeding served a notice of dispute (Streitverkündung) to several parties including Deutsche Bank. On February 26, 2021, the Regional Court (Landgericht) Frankfurt am Main served Deutsche Bank with a claim by Seriva Vermögensverwaltungs GmbH (“Seriva”). Seriva is requesting that Deutsche Bank reissue certain tax certificates (Steuerbescheinigungen) that Deutsche Bank withdrew in April 2017 in light of Seriva’s cum-ex transactions. Deutsche Bank responded to Seriva’s statement of claim on April 6, 2021. On July 5, 2021, Deutsche Bank received a reply brief from Seriva. Deutsche Bank responded on August 17, 2021. The hearing took place on February 7, 2022. In a judgment dated February 28, 2022, the court dismissed Seriva’s claim. Seriva may appeal the decision. The risks arising from the cum-ex topic are difficult to quantify and the likelihood of these risks materializing is hard to predict. In the event that Deutsche Bank is eventually liable under the civil law claims already asserted or under claims that will potentially be asserted by third parties in the future, this may materially and adversely affect our financial condition or results of operations.
Litigation & Legal Liabilities - Risk 4
We are currently involved in civil proceedings in connection with our voluntary takeover offer for the acquisition of all shares of Postbank. The extent of our financial exposure to this matter could be material, and our reputation may be harmed.
On September 12, 2010, we announced a voluntary takeover offer for the acquisition of all shares in Deutsche Postbank AG (Postbank). On October 7, 2010, we published our official takeover offer and offered Postbank shareholders a consideration of € 25 for each Postbank share. This offer was accepted for a total of approximately 48.2 million Postbank shares. In November 2010, a former shareholder of Postbank, Effecten-Spiegel AG, which had accepted the takeover offer, brought a claim against us alleging that the offer price was too low and was not determined in accordance with the applicable German law. The plaintiff alleges that we had been obliged to make a mandatory takeover offer for all shares in Postbank, at the latest, in 2009, as the voting rights of Deutsche Post AG in Postbank had to be attributed to us pursuant to Section 30 of the German Takeover Act. Based thereon, the plaintiff alleges that the consideration offered by us in the 2010 voluntary takeover offer needed to be raised to € 57.25 per share. The Regional Court (Landgericht) Cologne dismissed the claim in 2011 and the Higher Regional Court (Oberlandesgericht) Cologne dismissed the appeal in 2012. The German Federal Court (Bundesgerichtshof) set this judgment aside and referred the case back to the Higher Regional Court Cologne to take evidence on certain allegations of the plaintiff. Starting in 2014, additional former shareholders of Postbank, who accepted the 2010 tender offer, brought similar claims as Effecten-Spiegel AG. On October 20, 2017, the Regional Court Cologne handed down a decision granting the claims in a total of 14 cases which were combined in one proceeding. The Regional Court Cologne took the view that we were obliged to make a mandatory takeover offer already in 2008 so that the appropriate consideration to be offered in the takeover offer should have been € 57.25 per Postbank share (instead of € 25). The additional consideration per share owed to shareholders which have accepted the takeover offer would thus amount to € 32.25. We appealed this decision and the appeal was assigned to the 13th Senate of the Higher Regional Court of Cologne, which also heard the appeal of Effecten-Spiegel AG. On December 16, 2020, the Higher Regional Court Cologne handed down a decision and fully dismissed the claims of Effecten-Spiegel AG. Further, in a second decision handed down on December 16, 2020, the Higher Regional Court Cologne allowed the appeal of Deutsche Bank against the decision of the Regional Court Cologne dated October 20, 2017 and dismissed all related claims of the relevant plaintiffs. The Higher Regional Court Cologne has granted leave to appeal to the German Federal Court (Bundesgerichtshof) as regards both and all relevant plaintiffs have lodged their respective appeals with the Federal Court end of January and beginning of February 2021, respectively. On October 15, 2021, the plaintiffs filed their reasonings of the appeal with the German Federal Court. We have been served with a large number of additional lawsuits filed against us shortly before the end of 2017, almost all of which are now pending with the Regional Court Cologne. Some of the new plaintiffs allege that the consideration offered by us for the shares in Postbank in the 2010 voluntary takeover should be raised to € 64.25 per share. The claims for payment against us in relation to these matters total almost € 700 million (excluding interest). In September 2015, former shareholders of Postbank filed in the Regional Court Cologne shareholder actions against Postbank to set aside the squeeze-out resolution taken in the shareholders meeting of Postbank in August 2015. Among other things, the plaintiffs alleged that we were subject to a suspension of voting rights with respect to our shares in Postbank based on the allegation that we failed to make a mandatory takeover offer. The squeeze out is final and the proceeding itself has no reversal effect, but may result in damage payments. The claimants refer to legal arguments similar to those asserted in the Effecten-Spiegel proceeding described above. In a decision on October 20, 2017, the Regional Court Cologne declared the squeeze-out resolution to be void. The court, however, did not rely on a suspension of voting rights due to an alleged failure by us to make a mandatory takeover offer, but argued that Postbank violated information rights of Postbank shareholders in Postbank's shareholders meeting in August 2015. Postbank appealed this decision. On May 15, 2020 DB Privat- und Firmenkundenbank AG (legal successor of Postbank due to a merger in 2018) was merged into Deutsche Bank AG. On July 3, 2020 Deutsche Bank AG withdrew the appeal as regards the actions for voidance because efforts and costs to pursue this appeal became disproportionate to the minor remaining economic importance of the case considering that the 2015 squeeze-out cannot be reversed. As a consequence, the first instance judgement which found that Postbank violated the information rights of its shareholders in the shareholders’ meeting has become final. The legal question of whether we had been obliged to make a mandatory takeover offer for all Postbank shares prior to our 2010 voluntary takeover may also impact two pending appraisal proceedings (Spruchverfahren). These proceedings were initiated by former Postbank shareholders with the aim to increase the cash compensation offered in connection with the squeeze-out of Postbank shareholders in 2015 and the cash compensation offered and annual compensation paid in connection with the execution of a domination and profit and loss transfer agreement (Beherrschungs- und Gewinnabführungsvertrag) between DB Finanz-Holding AG (now DB Beteiligungs-Holding GmbH) and Postbank in 2012. The applicants in the appraisal proceedings claim that a potential obligation of ours to make a mandatory takeover offer for Postbank at an offer price of € 57.25 should be decisive when determining the adequate cash compensation in the appraisal proceedings. The Regional Court Cologne had originally followed this legal opinion of the applicants in two resolutions. In a decision dated June 2019, the Regional Court of Cologne expressly deviated from this legal resolution in the appraisal proceedings in connection with execution of a domination and profit and loss transfer agreement. According to this decision, the question whether we were obliged to make a mandatory offer for all Postbank shares prior to our voluntary takeover offer in 2010 shall not be relevant for determining the appropriate cash compensation. It is likely that the Regional Court Cologne will take the same legal position in the appraisal proceedings in connection with the squeeze-out. On October 1, 2020 the Regional Court Cologne handed down a decision in the appraisal proceeding concerning the domination and profit and loss transfer agreement (dated December 5, 2012) according to which the annual compensation pursuant to Section 304 of the German Stock Corporation Act (jährliche Ausgleichszahlung) shall be increased by € 0.12 to € 1.78 per Postbank share and the settlement amount pursuant to Section 305 of the German Stock Corporation Act (Abfindungsbetrag) shall be increased by € 4.56 to € 29.74 per Postbank share. The increase of the settlement amount is of relevance for approximately 492.000 former Postbank shares whereas the increase of the annual compensation is of relevance for approximately 7 million former Postbank shares. Deutsche Bank as well as the applicants have lodged an appeal against this decision. The extent of our financial exposure to these matters could be material, and our reputation may be harmed.
Litigation & Legal Liabilities - Risk 5
Guilty pleas by or convictions of us or our affiliates in criminal proceedings, or regulatory or enforcement orders, settlements or agreements to which we or our affiliates become subject, may have consequences that have adverse effects on certain of our businesses.
We and our affiliates have been and are subjects of criminal and regulatory enforcement proceedings. In particular, as part of the resolution of the investigation of the DOJ into misconduct relating to London interbank offered rates, our subsidiary DB Group Services (UK) Limited entered into a plea agreement with the DOJ in 2015, pursuant to which the company pled guilty to one count of wire fraud, and, subsequently, a judgment of conviction was issued against the company. Also, in connection with the KOSPI Index unwind matters, our subsidiary Deutsche Securities Korea Co. was convicted of vicarious corporate criminal liability in respect of spot/futures linked market manipulation by one of its employees; though the criminal trial verdict has been overturned on appeal, the Korean prosecutor’s office has appealed the decision. We and our subsidiaries are also the subjects of other criminal or regulatory enforcement proceedings or investigations. Guilty pleas or convictions against us or our affiliates, or regulatory or enforcement orders, settlements or agreements to which we or our affiliates become subject, could lead to our ineligibility to conduct certain business activities. In particular, such guilty pleas or convictions could cause our asset management affiliates to no longer qualify as “qualified professional asset managers” (“QPAMs”) under the QPAM Prohibited Transaction Exemption under ERISA, which exemption is relied on to provide asset management services to certain pension plans in connection with certain asset management strategies. While there are a number of statutory exemptions and numerous other administrative exemptions that our asset management affiliates may use to trade on behalf of ERISA plans, and in many instances they may do so in lieu of relying on the QPAM exemption, loss of QPAM status could cause customers who rely on such status (whether because they are legally required to do so or because we have agreed contractually with them to maintain such status) to cease to do business or refrain from doing business with us and could negatively impact our reputation more generally. For example, clients may mistakenly see the loss as a signal that our asset management affiliates are somehow no longer approved as asset managers generally by the U.S. Department of Labor (“DOL”), the agency responsible for ERISA, and cease to do business or refrain from doing business with us for that reason. This could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, particularly those of our asset management business in the United States. On December 29, 2017, the DOL published a three-year individual exemption permitting certain of our affiliates to retain their QPAM status despite both the conviction of DB Group Services (UK) Limited and the conviction of Deutsche Securities Korea Co. (the latter conviction has been subsequently overturned and is now the subject of an appeal). This exemption was subsequently extended by the DOL for an additional three-year period and is scheduled to expire on April 17, 2024, but may terminate earlier if, among other things, we or our affiliates are convicted of crimes in other matters. The disqualification period arising from these convictions extends until April 17, 2027, so we will need to obtain a further exemption by April 18, 2024 to avoid a loss of QPAM status at that time.
Taxation & Government Incentives1 | 2.1%
Taxation & Government Incentives - Risk 1
We are under continuous examination by tax authorities in the jurisdictions in which we operate. Tax laws are increasingly complex and are evolving. The cost to us arising from the resolution of routine tax examinations, tax litigation and other forms of tax proceedings or tax disputes may increase and may adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operation.
We are under continuous examination by tax authorities in the jurisdictions in which we operate. Tax laws are increasingly complex. In the current political and regulatory environment, tax administrations' and courts' interpretation of tax laws and regulations and their application are evolving, and scrutiny by tax authorities has become increasingly intense. Wide ranging and continuous changes in the principles of international taxation emanating from the OECD's Base Erosion and Profit Shifting agenda are generating significant uncertainties for us and our subsidiaries and may result in an increase in instances of tax disputes or instances of double taxation going forward, as member states may take different approaches in transposing these requirements into national law or may choose to implement unilateral measures. Examples are the EU directive requiring disclosure of arrangements with specific tax features that took effect in 2020, or the recent draft EU directive to implement the OECD global minimum taxation rules (Pillar 2) that could take effect as early as 2023. Tax administrations have also been focusing on the eligibility of taxpayers for reduced withholding taxes on dividends in connection with certain cross-border lending or derivative transactions with the German Federal Ministry of Finance having issued additional administrative guidance in this area during 2021. In addition, while a significant amount of guidance has been issued since the enactment of the U.S. tax reform at the end of 2017 which included the Base Erosion Anti-Abuse Tax provisions, uncertainties remain and further interpretative guidance may be necessary over the coming years. As a result, the cost to us arising from the resolution of routine tax examinations, tax litigation and other forms of tax proceedings or tax disputes, as well as from rapidly changing and increasingly complex and uncertain tax laws and principles, may increase and may adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operation.
Finance & Corporate
Total Risks: 12/48 (25%)Below Sector Average
Accounting & Financial Operations3 | 6.3%
Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 1
Pursuant to accounting rules, we must review our deferred tax assets at the end of each reporting period. To the extent that it is no longer probable that sufficient taxable income will be available to allow all or a portion of our deferred tax assets to be utilized, we have to reduce the carrying amounts. These reductions have had and may in the future have material adverse effects on our profitability, equity and financial condition.
We recognize deferred tax assets for future tax consequences attributable to temporary differences between the financial statement carrying amounts of existing assets and liabilities and their respective tax bases, unused tax losses and unused tax credits. Deferred tax assets are recognized only to the extent that it is probable that sufficient taxable profit will be available against which those unused tax losses, unused tax credits and deductible temporary differences can be utilized. As of December 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020, we recognized deferred tax assets of € 6.2 billion and € 6.1 billion, respectively. In determining the amount of deferred tax assets, we use historical tax capacity and profitability information and, if relevant, forecasted operating results based upon approved business plans, including a review of the eligible carry-forward periods, available tax planning opportunities and other relevant considerations. The analysis of historical tax capacity includes the determination as to whether a history of recent losses exists at the reporting date, and is generally based on the pre-tax results adjusted for permanent differences for the current and the two preceding financial years. Each quarter, we re-evaluate our estimate related to deferred tax assets, including our assumptions about future profitability. The accounting estimate related to the deferred tax assets depends upon underlying assumptions about the historical tax capacity and profitability information, as well as forecasted operating results based upon approved business plans, which can change from period to period and requires significant management judgment. For example, tax law changes or variances in future projected operating performance could result in an adjustment to the deferred tax assets that would be charged to income tax expense or directly to equity in the period such determination was made. These adjustments have had and may in the future have material adverse effects on our profitability or equity. In connection with the transformation, the Group adjusted the estimate related to deferred tax assets in affected jurisdictions, such as the UK and the United States, and recognized € 2.8 billion of valuation adjustments since 2019.
Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 2
Pursuant to accounting rules, we must periodically test the value of the goodwill of our businesses and the value of our other intangible assets for impairment. In the event such test determines that criteria for impairment exists, we are required under accounting rules to write down the value of such asset. Impairments of goodwill and other intangible assets have had and may have a material adverse effect on our profitability results of operations.
Goodwill arises on the acquisition of subsidiaries and associates and represents the excess of the aggregate of the cost of an acquisition and any noncontrolling interests in the acquiree over the fair value of the identifiable net assets acquired at the date of the acquisition. As of December 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020, we recognized goodwill in the amount of € 2.8 billion and € 2.7 billion, respectively. Goodwill on the acquisition of subsidiaries is capitalized and reviewed for impairment annually or more frequently if there are indications that impairment may have occurred. Intangible assets are recognized separately from goodwill when they are separable or arise from contractual or other legal rights and their fair value can be measured reliably. These assets are tested for impairment and their useful lives reaffirmed at least annually. The determination of the recoverable amount in the impairment assessment of non-financial assets requires estimates based on quoted market prices, prices of comparable businesses, present value or other valuation techniques, or a combination thereof, necessitating management to make subjective judgments and assumptions. These estimates and assumptions could result in significant differences to the amounts reported if underlying circumstances were to change. Impairments of goodwill and other intangible assets have had and may have a material adverse effect on our profitability and results of operations. Since 2019, we have recorded impairments of goodwill of € 1.0 billion in connection with our strategic transformation.
Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 3
A substantial proportion of our assets and liabilities comprise financial instruments that we carry at fair value, with changes in fair value recognized in our income statement. As a result of such changes, we have incurred losses in the past, and may incur further losses in the future.
A substantial proportion of the assets and liabilities on our balance sheet comprise financial instruments that we carry at fair value, with changes in fair value recognized in the income statement. Fair value is defined as the price at which an asset or liability could be exchanged in an arm’s length transaction between knowledgeable, willing parties, other than in a forced or liquidation sale. If the value of an asset carried at fair value declines (or the value of a liability carried at fair value increases) a corresponding unfavorable change in fair value is recognized in the income statement. These changes have been and could in the future be significant. Observable prices or inputs are not available for certain classes of financial instruments. Fair value is determined in these cases using valuation techniques we believe to be appropriate for the particular instrument. The application of valuation techniques to determine fair value involves estimation and management judgment, the extent of which will vary with the degree of complexity of the instrument and liquidity in the market. Management judgment is required in the selection and application of the appropriate parameters, assumptions and modeling techniques. If any of the assumptions change due to negative market conditions or for other reasons, subsequent valuations may result in significant changes in the fair values of our financial instruments, requiring us to record losses. Our exposure and related changes in fair value are reported net of any fair value gains we may record in connection with hedging transactions related to the underlying assets. However, we may never realize these gains, and the fair value of the hedges may change in future periods for a number of reasons, including as a result of deterioration in the credit of our hedging counterparties. Such declines may be independent of the fair values of the underlying hedged assets or liabilities and may result in future losses.
Debt & Financing4 | 8.3%
Debt & Financing - Risk 1
In addition to our traditional banking businesses of deposit-taking and lending, we also engage in nontraditional credit businesses in which credit is extended in transactions that include, for example, our holding of securities of third parties or our engaging in complex derivative transactions. These nontraditional credit businesses materially increase our exposure to credit risk.
As a bank and provider of financial services, we are exposed to the risk that third parties who owe us money, securities or other assets will not perform their obligations. Many of the businesses we engage in beyond the traditional banking businesses of deposit-taking and lending also expose us to credit risk. In particular, much of the business we conduct through our Investment Bank corporate division entails credit transactions, frequently ancillary to other transactions. Nontraditional sources of credit risk can arise, for example, from holding securities of third parties; entering into swap or other derivative contracts under which counterparties have obligations to make payments to us; executing securities, futures, currency or commodity trades that fail to settle at the required time due to nondelivery by the counterparty or systems failure by clearing agents, exchanges, clearing houses or other financial intermediaries; and extending credit through other arrangements. Parties to these transactions, such as trading counterparties, may default on their obligations to us due to bankruptcy, political and economic events, lack of liquidity, operational failure or other reasons. Many of our derivative transactions are individually negotiated and non-standardized, which can make exiting, transferring or settling the position difficult. Certain credit derivatives require that we deliver to the counterparty the underlying security, loan or other obligation in order to receive payment. In a number of cases, we do not hold, and may not be able to obtain, the underlying security, loan or other obligation. This could cause us to forfeit the payments otherwise due to us or result in settlement delays, which could damage our reputation and ability to transact future business, as well as impose increased costs on us. Legislation in the European Union (EMIR) and the United States (the Dodd-Frank Act) has introduced requirements for the standardization, margining, central clearing and transaction reporting of certain over-the-counter derivatives. While such requirements are aimed at reducing the risk posed to counterparties and the financial system by such derivatives, they may reduce the volume and profitability of the transactions in which we engage, and compliance with such provisions may impose substantial costs on us. The exceptionally difficult market conditions experienced during the global financial crisis severely adversely affected certain areas in which we do business that entail nontraditional credit risks, including the leveraged finance and structured credit markets, and similar market conditions, should they occur, may do so in the future.
Debt & Financing - Risk 2
Ongoing global benchmark reform efforts, specifically the transition from interbank offered rates to alternative reference rates, including “risk-free-rates”, introduce a number of inherent risks to our business and the financial industry. These risks, should they materialize, may have adverse effects on our business, results of operations and profitability.
Regulators and central banks have set the goal of improving the robustness of financial benchmarks, especially interest rate benchmarks. As a result of this initiative, as of the end of 2021, CHF LIBOR, EUR LIBOR, EONIA and certain other LIBOR currency tenors have ceased to be published. GBP LIBOR and JPY LIBOR have ceased to be available in representative form. Certain tenors of GBP and JPY LIBOR remain available in synthetic form for a limited time period, only to enable so called ‘tough legacy’ transactions to transition to suitable Risk-Free Rate (“RFR”) alternatives. A reduced number of USD LIBOR tenors is expected to be published until the end of June 2023, however the new use of USD LIBOR is subject to significant limitations. The transition away from the LIBORs and EONIA (together “IBORs”) to RFRs may cause portfolios to perform differently than in the past, or have other consequences, which cannot be fully anticipated. Regulators such as the FCA and FRB have strongly urged market participants to transition to alternative RFRs. A material portion of our assets and liabilities, including financial instruments we trade and other transactions and services we are involved in, have interest rates that are linked to IBORs and other financial benchmarks that have already ceased or that may be subject to potential unavailability or future discontinuation. Transition of legacy transactions will depend, in some cases on client engagement and agreement to spread adjustments, which may not be forthcoming. In some cases, transition of legacy products may be hampered by structural factors, such as technical inability to contact numerous bondholders. To help address risks with tough legacy products, legislation has been passed in UK and New York, and implementing powers have been used by the European Commission. None of those legislative steps has provided a panacea to transition of “tough legacy” products, however, and therefore risks remain in respect of our products and holdings which reference IBORs. Uncertainties around the timing and method of transition to RFRs continues to present a number of risks for us, our customers and the financial services industry more widely. The unavailability and discontinuation of IBORs and other financial benchmarks continues to pose a variety of risks to us. Those risks include the following: – Legal and compliance risk (including conduct risk) may arise due to possible disputes regarding either the terms of financial contracts with counterparties, or the manner of transition to replacement rates. Many financial instruments linked to financial benchmarks contain provisions, known as fallbacks, for the use of a successor interest rate in the event of the discontinuation of the benchmark, while others do not. The quality of fallbacks in contracts has improved in respect of a number of products in very recent times, but risks remain that some fallbacks may not perform well. In connection with discontinuation and transition, the counterparty to the financial instrument may challenge the rate determined by a fallback for such an instrument, particularly if we are involved in the determination or setting of the successor rate. Such disputes could result in litigation or regulatory action founded in claims of breach of contract, anti-trust violations, market abuse, and/or other mistreatment of customers. – Legal and compliance risk may derive from any failure to comply with regulators’ expectations, that new use of financial benchmarks will cease. – Liquidity risk may arise due to slow acceptance, take-up, and development of liquidity in RFR-related products, particularly SOFR, leading to market dislocation or fragmentation. Additionally, bid/offer spreads may widen impacting funding and collateral postings. Similar risks may apply to exposures toward the date of discontinuation, or in relation to tough-legacy products which use synthetic LIBOR, which may perform differently than historic LIBOR. – Also, the replacement of financial benchmarks, or use of synthetic LIBOR, could adversely impact the value of and return on existing instruments and contracts and the market for securities and other instruments whose returns are linked to such benchmarks. – Market risk may arise due to interest rate “basis” risks – the risks posed by different interest rate provisions applying to assets than to liabilities – across tenors and currencies, driven by differing fallback methodologies and timings. Different timings of adoption of fallback protocols will create new basis and potentially make hedging more costly or less effective, and losses may result from value transfer in the fallback methodology adopted. Due to the unavailability and discontinuation of financial benchmarks that have already happened, and that are yet to come, we may incur losses in respect of our assets and liabilities if the successor interest rate is not economically equivalent to the discontinued benchmarks. – Introduction of new RFRs has required us to develop new pricing and risk models related to new RFR-linked products. Regulatory risk and capital models developed to support RFR-linked products have been submitted for approval by competent authorities, with further model changes expected to be submitted in 2022. The scale of model changes still to be implemented presents continued project and operational risk and continues to be a key focus of senior management. – Finance and tax risk may arise due to the discontinuation of financial benchmarks and transition to RFRs, which could cause hedge accounting items to be derecognized, adversely impacting our profitability or causing us to incur losses. Discontinuation and transition could also pose difficulties for the independent price verification of financial instruments, where market data is unavailable for the new or modified financial instrument. Tax uncertainties could arise, for example, if a discontinuation or transition is viewed as a significant modification of a financial instrument that results in a profit or loss recognition event for tax purposes. – Technology and operational risk may arise as a result of the complexity of transition processes, which will require collaboration with our regulators and central banks as well as a wide range of market participants. Also, significant change efforts – relating to RFR product development, re-documentation of client contracts and infrastructure change, including to systems, processes and models across the business and our Finance, Risk and Treasury functions –, has been required. There is a risk that not all systems and process dependencies on financial benchmark availability have been identified and remediated. Successful transition processes are, to some extent, dependent on achieving industry and client consensus on standards and conventions, timing and sequencing of transition steps, creation of forward-looking term versions of the RFRs and the timely re-documenting of client contracts. It is currently difficult to determine to what extent the transition to alternative reference rates will adversely affect us, or the costs of implementing any relevant remedial action. Uncertainty as to the nature and extent to such potential changes, alternative reference rates or other reforms including the potential continuation beyond the initial first year of the publication of synthetic GBP LIBOR may adversely affect financial instruments using financial benchmarks. The implementation of any alternative RFRs may be impossible or impracticable under the existing terms of such financial instruments and could have an adverse effect on the value of certain financial instruments and on our profitability. There is also the risk of an adverse effect to reported performance arising from the transition rules established by accounting bodies. More broadly, initiatives to reform existing benchmarks and our participation in them, including as benchmark submitter, could potentially expose us to legal, reputational or other risks. In particular, legal and compliance risk (including conduct risk) may arise due to the operational risks of participating in benchmark submissions, either as part of a panel with the requirement to use models and potentially exercise expert judgement or as provider of transactions data to a benchmark administrator. The continued reduction in availability and ultimate discontinuation of further financial benchmarks including USD LIBOR, and transition to RFRs could have adverse effects on our business, results of operations, and profitability.
Debt & Financing - Risk 3
We may be required to take impairments on our exposures to the sovereign debt of European or other countries if the European sovereign debt crisis reignites. The credit default swaps into which we have entered to manage sovereign credit risk may not be available to offset these losses.
A large portion of the sovereign debt of Eurozone countries is held by European financial institutions, including Deutsche Bank. Despite the apparent abatement of the European sovereign debt crisis in recent years, it remains uncertain whether , in light of the current political environment, Greece or other Eurozone sovereigns, such as Spain, Italy, Portugal and Cyprus, will be able to manage their debt levels in the future and whether Greece will attempt to renegotiate its past international debt restructuring. The rise of anti-austerity parties and populist sentiment in many of these countries poses a threat to the medium- to long-term measures recommended for these countries to alleviate the tensions in the Eurozone caused by drastically differing economic situations among the Eurozone states. In the future, negotiations or exchanges similar to the Greek debt restructuring in 2012 could take place with respect to the sovereign debt of these or other affected countries. The outcome of any negotiations regarding changed terms (including reduced principal amounts or extended maturities) of sovereign debt may result in additional impairments of assets on our balance sheet. Any negotiations are highly likely to be subject to political and economic pressures that we cannot control, and we are unable to predict their effects on the financial markets, on the greater economy or on ourselves. In addition, any restructuring of outstanding sovereign debt may result in potential losses for us and other market participants that are not covered by payouts on hedging instruments that we have entered into to protect against the risk of default. These instruments largely consist of credit default swaps, generally referred to as CDSs, pursuant to which one party agrees to make a payment to another party if a credit event (such as a default) occurs on the identified underlying debt obligation. A sovereign restructuring that avoids a credit event through voluntary write-downs of value may not trigger the provisions in CDSs we have entered into, meaning that our exposures in the event of a write-down could exceed the exposures we previously viewed as our net exposure after hedging. Additionally, even if the CDS provisions are triggered, the amounts ultimately paid under the CDSs may not correspond to the full amount of any loss we incur. We also face the risk that our hedging counterparties have not effectively hedged their own exposures and may be unable to provide the necessary liquidity if payments under the instruments they have written are triggered. This may result in systemic risk for the European banking sector as a whole and may negatively affect our business and financial position.
Debt & Financing - Risk 4
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Our liquidity, business activities and profitability may be adversely affected by an inability to access the debt capital markets or to sell assets during periods of market-wide or firm-specific liquidity constraints. Credit rating downgrades have contributed to an increase in our funding costs in the past. Though we have recently seen upgrades of our credit ratings, any future downgrade could materially adversely affect our funding costs, the willingness of counterparties to continue to do business with us and significant aspects of our business model.
We have a continuous demand for liquidity to fund our business activities. Our liquidity may be impaired by an inability to access secured and/or unsecured debt markets, an inability to access funds from our subsidiaries or otherwise allocate liquidity optimally across our businesses, an inability to sell assets or redeem our investments, or unforeseen outflows of cash or collateral. This situation may arise due to circumstances unrelated to our businesses and outside our control, such as disruptions in the financial markets, or circumstances specific to us, such as reluctance of our counterparties or the market to finance our operations due to perceptions about potential outflows (including deposit outflows) resulting from litigation, regulatory and similar matters, actual or perceived weaknesses in our businesses, our business model or our strategy, as well as in our resilience to counter negative economic and market conditions. Reflecting these conditions, our internal estimates of our available liquidity over the duration of a stressed scenario could at times be negatively impacted. In addition, negative developments concerning other financial institutions perceived to be comparable to us and negative views about the financial services industry in general can also affect us. These perceptions could affect the prices at which we could access the capital markets to obtain the necessary funding to support our business activities; should these perceptions exist, continue or worsen, our ability to obtain this financing on acceptable terms may be adversely affected. Among other things, an inability to refinance assets on our balance sheet or maintain appropriate levels of capital to protect against deteriorations in their value could force us to liquidate assets we hold at depressed prices or on unfavorable terms, and could also force us to curtail business, such as the extension of new credit. This could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. Additionally, we need to ensure ongoing ability to refinance our business activities in the respective currencies. In addition, we have benefited in recent years from a number of incremental measures by the ECB and other central banks to provide additional liquidity to financial institutions and the financial markets, particularly in the Eurozone. To the extent these actions are curtailed or halted, our funding costs could increase, or our funding supply could decrease, which could in turn result in a reduction in our business activities. In particular, any decision by the ECB to discontinue or reduce quantitative easing or steps by the Federal Reserve to tighten its monetary policy or actions by central banks more generally to tighten their monetary policy will likely cause long-term interest rates to increase and supply of central bank funding to be reduced which could impact the costs of our funding. Our credit ratings have been upgraded in 2021 by all three leading rating agencies. Despite the recent upgrades, rating agencies regularly review our credit ratings, and such reviews could be negatively affected by a number of factors that can change over time, including the credit rating agency’s assessment of: our strategy and management’s capability; our financial condition including in respect of profitability, asset quality, capital, funding and liquidity; the level of political support for the industries in which we operate; the implementation of structural reform; the legal and regulatory frameworks applicable to our legal structure; business activities and the rights of our creditors; changes in rating methodologies; changes in the relative size of the loss-absorbing buffers protecting bondholders and depositors; the competitive environment, political and economic conditions in our key markets (including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and Brexit); and market uncertainty. In addition, credit ratings agencies are increasingly taking into account environmental, social and governance factors, including climate risk, as part of the credit ratings analysis, as are investors in their investment decisions. Any reductions in our credit ratings, including, in particular, downgrades below investment grade, or a deterioration in the capital markets’ perception of our financial resilience could significantly affect our access to money markets, reduce the size of our deposit base and trigger additional collateral or other requirements in derivatives contracts and other secured funding arrangements or the need to amend such arrangements, which could adversely affect our cost of funding and our access to capital markets and could limit the range of counterparties willing to enter into transactions with us. This could in turn adversely impact our competitive position and threaten our prospects in the short to medium-term. After the start of the global financial crisis, the major credit rating agencies have lowered our credit ratings or placed them on review or negative watch on multiple occasions. These credit rating downgrades have contributed to an increase in our funding costs. Despite the recent upgrades, our credit spread levels (meaning the difference between the yields on our securities as compared to benchmark government bonds) are sensitive to further adverse developments and severe future downgrades could bring our credit rating into the non-investment grade category. This could materially and adversely affect our funding costs and significant aspects of our business model. The effect would depend on a number of factors including whether a downgrade affects financial institutions across the industry or on a regional basis, or is intended to reflect circumstances specific to us, such as our potential settlement of regulatory, litigation and similar matters; any actions our senior management may take in advance of or in response to the downgrade; the willingness of counterparties to continue to do business with us; any impact of other market events and the state of the macroeconomic environment more generally. Additionally, under many of the contracts governing derivative instruments to which we are a party, a downgrade could require us to post additional collateral, lead to terminations of contracts with accompanying payment obligations for us or give counterparties additional remedies. We take these effects into account in our liquidity stress testing analysis, as further described in “Management Report: Risk Report: Liquidity Risk: Stress Testing and Scenario Analysis” in the Annual Report 2021.
Corporate Activity and Growth5 | 10.4%
Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 1
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A robust and effective internal control environment and adequate infrastructure (comprising people, policies and procedures, controls testing and IT systems) are necessary to ensure that we conduct our business in compliance with the laws, regulations and associated supervisory expectations applicable to us. We have identified the need to strengthen our internal control environment and infrastructure and have embarked on initiatives to accomplish this. If these initiatives are not successful or proceed too slowly, our reputation, regulatory position and financial condition may be materially adversely affected, and our ability to achieve our strategic ambitions may be impaired.
Our businesses are highly dependent on our ability to maintain a robust and effective internal control environment. This is needed for the Bank to process and monitor, on a daily basis, a wide variety of transactions, many of which are highly complex and occur at high speeds, volumes and frequencies, and across numerous and diverse markets and currencies. Such a robust and effective control environment is in turn dependent on the sufficiency of our infrastructure to support that environment. This infrastructure consists broadly of internal policies and procedures, testing protocols, and the IT systems and employees needed to enforce and enable them. An effective control environment is dependent on infrastructure systems and procedures that cover the processing and settling of transactions; the valuation of assets; the identification, monitoring, aggregation, measurement and reporting of risks and positions against various metrics; the evaluation of counterparties and customers for legal, regulatory and compliance purposes; the escalation of reviews; and the taking of mitigating and remedial actions where necessary. They are also critical for regulatory reporting and other data processing and compliance activities. Both our internal control environment and the infrastructure that underlies it fall short in a number of areas of our standards for completeness and comprehensiveness and are not well integrated across the Bank. Our IT infrastructure, in particular, is fragmented, with numerous distinct platforms, many of which need significant upgrades, in operation across the Bank. Our business processes and the related control systems often require manual procedures and actions that increase the risks of human error and other operational problems that can lead to delays in reporting information to management and to the need for more adjustments and revisions than would be the case with more seamlessly integrated and automated systems and processes. As a result, it is often difficult and labor-intensive for us to obtain or provide information of a consistently high quality and on a timely basis to comply with regulatory reporting and other compliance requirements or to meet regulatory expectations on a consistent basis and, in certain cases, to manage our risk comprehensively. Furthermore, it often takes intensive efforts to identify, when possible, inappropriate behavior by our staff and attempts by third parties to misuse our services as a conduit for prohibited activities, including those relating to anti-financial crime laws and regulation. In addition, we may not always have the personnel with the appropriate experience, seniority and skill levels to compensate for shortcomings in our processes and infrastructure, or to identify, manage or control risks, and it often has been difficult to attract and retain the requisite talent. This has impacted our ability to remediate existing weaknesses and manage the risks inherent in our activity. Additionally, despite the lower overall rate of attrition we have experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, attrition in positions key to improving our control environment remains a risk. Against this backdrop, our regulators, our Management Board and our Group Audit function have increasingly and more intensively focused on our internal controls and infrastructure through numerous formal reviews and audits of our operations. These reviews and audits have identified various areas for improvement relating to a number of elements of our control environment and infrastructure. These include the infrastructure relating to transaction capturing and recognition, classification of assets, asset valuation frameworks, models, data and process consistency, information security, software license management, payment services, risk identification, measurement and management and other processes required by laws, regulations, and supervisory expectations. They also include regulatory reporting, anti-money laundering (“AML”), transaction monitoring, “know your customer” (“KYC”), sanctions and embargoes, market conduct and other internal processes that are aimed at preventing use of our products and services for the purpose of committing or concealing financial crime. Our principal regulators, including the BaFin, the ECB and the Federal Reserve Board, have also conducted numerous reviews focused on our internal controls and the related infrastructure. These regulators have required us formally to commit to remediate our AML and other weaknesses, including the fragmented and manual nature of our infrastructure. For example, on September 21, 2018, the BaFin issued an order requiring us to implement measures on specified timelines over the coming months and years to improve our control and compliance infrastructure relating to AML and, in particular, the KYC processes in certain of our businesses. Local regulators in other countries in which we do business also review the sufficiency of our control environment and infrastructure with respect to their jurisdictions. While the overall goals of the various prudential regulators having authority over us in the many places in which we do business are broadly consistent, and the general themes of our deficiencies in internal controls and the supporting infrastructure are similar, the regulatory frameworks applicable to us in the area of internal controls are generally applicable at a national or EU-wide level and are not always consistent across the jurisdictions in which we operate around the world. This adds complexity and cost to our efforts to reduce fragmentation and put in place automated systems that communicate seamlessly and quickly with one another. In order to improve in the areas discussed above, we are undertaking several major initiatives to enhance the efficacy of the transaction processing environment, strengthen our controls and infrastructure, manage non-financial risks and enhance the skill set of our personnel. We believe that these initiatives will better enable us to avoid the circumstances that have resulted in many of the litigations and regulatory and enforcement investigations and proceedings to which we have been subject, and will improve our ability to comply with laws and regulations and meet supervisory expectations. In particular, we are making efforts to reduce the complexity of our business and to integrate and automate processes and business and second-line controls. We have also exited certain businesses and high-risk countries, selectively off-boarded a number of clients, worked to strengthen our compliance culture and control functions. However, we may be unable to complete these initiatives as quickly as we intend or as our regulators demand, and our efforts may be insufficient to remediate existing deficiencies and prevent future deficiencies or to result in fewer litigations or regulatory and enforcement investigations, proceedings and criticism in the future. We may also, when faced with the considerable expense of these initiatives, fail to provide sufficient resources for them quickly enough or at all or underestimate the extent of resource requirements. The slow pace of our remediation efforts and progress on achieving significant and durable improvements in the areas discussed above, may result in regulatory action of the type that has been taken against other financial institutions whose progress regulators have deemed insufficient or too slow. If we are unable to significantly improve our infrastructure and control environment in a timely manner, we may be subject to fines or penalties, as well as to regulatory intervention in aspects of our businesses. For example, we might feel pressure or be required by our regulators to reduce our exposure to or terminate certain kinds of products or businesses, counterparties or regions, which could, depending on the extent of such requirement, significantly challenge our ability to operate profitably under our current business model. Regulators can also impose capital surcharges, requiring capital buffers in addition to those directly required under the regulatory capital rules applicable to us, to reflect the additional risks posed by deficiencies in our control environment. In extreme cases, regulators can suspend our permission to operate in the businesses and regions within their jurisdictions or require extensive and costly remedial actions. Furthermore, implementation of enhanced infrastructure and controls may result in higher-than-expected costs of regulatory compliance that could offset or exceed efficiency gains or significantly affect our profitability. Any of these factors could affect our ability to implement our strategy in a timely manner or at all.
Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 2
Our risk management policies, procedures and methods leave us exposed to unidentified or unanticipated risks, which could lead to material losses.
We have devoted significant resources to developing our risk management policies, procedures and assessment methods and intend to continue to do so in the future. Nonetheless, the risk management techniques and strategies have not been and may in the future not be fully effective in mitigating our risk exposure in all economic market environments or against all types of risk, including risks that we fail to identify or anticipate. Some of our quantitative tools and metrics for managing risk are based upon our use of observed historical market behavior. We apply statistical and other tools to these observations to arrive at quantifications of our risk exposures. During the financial crisis, the financial markets experienced unprecedented levels of volatility (rapid changes in price direction) and the breakdown of historically observed correlations (the extent to which prices move in tandem) across asset classes, compounded by extremely limited liquidity. In this volatile market environment, our risk management tools and metrics failed to predict some of the losses we have experienced, and they may in the future fail to predict important risk exposures. In addition, our quantitative modeling does not take all risks into account and makes numerous assumptions regarding the overall environment, which may not be borne out by events. As a result, risk exposures have arisen and could continue to arise from factors we did not anticipate or correctly evaluate in our statistical models. This has limited and could continue to limit our ability to manage our risks especially in light of geopolitical developments, many of the outcomes of which are currently unforeseeable. Our losses thus have been and may in the future be significantly greater than the historical measures indicate. In addition, our more qualitative approach to managing those risks not taken into account by our quantitative methods could also prove insufficient, exposing us to material unanticipated losses. Also, if existing or potential customers or counterparties believe our risk management is inadequate, they could take their business elsewhere or seek to limit their transactions with us. This could harm our reputation as well as our revenues and profits. See “Management Report: Risk Report” in the Annual Report 2021 for a more detailed discussion of the policies, procedures and methods we use to identify, monitor and manage our risks.
Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 3
The BaFin has ordered us to improve our control and compliance infrastructure relating to our anti-money laundering and know-your-client processes, and appointed a special representative to monitor these measures’ implementation. Our results of operations, financial condition and reputation could be materially and adversely affected if we are unable to significantly improve our infrastructure and control environment by the set deadline.
On September 21, 2018, the BaFin issued an order requiring us to take appropriate internal safeguards and comply with general due diligence obligations in order to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing. The BaFin has appointed a special representative to monitor the implementation of the ordered measures, assessing and reporting the progress to the BaFin. In February 2019, the BaFin extended the order and the mandate of the special representative to review its group-wide risk management processes in the area of correspondence banking and adjust them where necessary. The BaFin further expanded the order and the mandate on April 29, 2021, ordering Deutsche Bank to adopt further appropriate internal safeguards and comply with due diligence obligations, in particular with regard to regular reviews. This expansion also applies to correspondent relationships and transaction monitoring. Our AML and KYC processes, as well as our other internal processes that are aimed at preventing use of our products and services for the purpose of committing or concealing financial crime and our personnel responsible for our efforts in these areas, continue to be the subject of regulatory scrutiny in a number of jurisdictions, including in the U.S., and other regulators could take actions against us similar to those of the BaFin. If we are unable to significantly improve our infrastructure and control environment by the set deadlines, our results of operations, financial condition and reputation could be materially and adversely affected. Regulators can impose fines or require us to reduce our exposure to or terminate certain kinds of products or businesses or relationships with counterparties or regions. We may also face additional legal proceedings, investigations or regulatory actions in the future, including in other jurisdictions with material impact on the bank´s business and profitability. These could, depending on the extent of any resulting requirements, significantly challenge our reputation and our ability to operate profitably under our current business model.
Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 4
We may have difficulty in identifying and executing business combinations, and both engaging in combinations and avoiding them could materially harm our results of operations and our share price.
We consider business combinations from time to time. Were we to announce or complete a significant business combination transaction, our share price or the share price of the combined entity could decline significantly if investors viewed the transaction as too costly, dilutive to existing shareholders or unlikely to improve our competitive position. It is generally not feasible for our reviews of any business with which we might engage in a combination to be complete in all respects. As a result, a combination may not perform as well as expected. In addition, we may fail to integrate our operations successfully with any entity with which we participate in a business combination. Failure to complete announced business combinations or failure to achieve the expected benefits of any such combination could materially and adversely affect our profitability. Such failures could also affect investors’ perception of our business prospects and management, and thus cause our share price to fall. They could also lead to departures of key employees, or lead to increased costs and reduced profitability if we felt compelled to offer them financial incentives to remain. If we avoid entering into business combination transactions or if announced or expected transactions fail to materialize, market participants may perceive us negatively. We may also be unable to expand our businesses, especially into new business areas, as quickly or successfully as our competitors if we do so through organic growth alone. These perceptions and limitations could cost us business and harm our reputation, which could have material adverse effects on our financial condition, results of operations and liquidity.
Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 5
If we are unable to implement our strategic plans successfully, we may be unable to achieve our financial objectives, or we may incur losses, including further impairments and provisions, or low profitability, and our financial condition, results of operations and share price may be materially and adversely affected.
In July 2019, we announced a strategic transformation of the Bank, designed to significantly improve sustainable returns to shareholders by refocusing our Core Bank – which comprises our four core operating divisions, namely the Corporate Bank, the Investment Bank, the Private Bank, and Asset Management, together with the segment Corporate & Other – around market leading businesses, which typically operate in growing markets with attractive return potential. We also created the Capital Release Unit (CRU), with the principal objective to liberate capital consumed by low return assets and businesses that earn insufficient returns or activities that are no longer core to our strategy. Since then, we have redrawn our business perimeter and selectively exited businesses in which we were not able to compete profitably. The next phase of our transformation will focus on seeking to ensure sustainable profitability by growing our businesses, while remaining disciplined on costs, risk and balance sheet management and control. Our key financial targets for 2022 are: – Post-tax Return on Average Tangible Equity of 8 % for the Group – Post-tax Return on Average Tangible Equity of more than 9 % for the Core Bank – Cost income ratio of 70 % – Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio of above 12.5 % – Leverage ratio (fully loaded) of ~4.5 % We have now set additional key financial targets for 2025: – Post-tax Return on Average Tangible Equity of above 10 % for the Group – Compounded annual growth rate of revenues from 2021 to 2025 of 3.5 to 4.5 % – Cost income ratio of less than 62.5 % We are committed to delivering sustainably growing cash dividends and returning excess capital to shareholders through share buybacks that is over and above what is required to support profitable growth and upcoming regulatory changes over time, subject to regulatory approval and shareholder authorization and meeting German corporate law requirements. To that end, subject to meeting our strategic targets, the Management Board intends to grow the cash dividend per share by 50 % p.a. in the next 3 years, starting from € 0.20 per share for the financial year 2021, which would translate into approximately € 3.3 billion of cumulative dividend payments by 2025 with respect to financial years 2021-2024. In relation to the financial year 2024 we intend to achieve a total payout ratio of 50 % from a combination of dividends paid and share buybacks executed in 2025; and we intend to maintain a 50 % total payout ratio in subsequent years. In addition to the already announced share buyback in 2022 of € 0.3 billion, meeting our current financial aspirations would therefore support the previously announced cumulative distributions to shareholders in the form of dividends paid or share buybacks executed in the total amount of € 5 billion in respect of financial years 2021-2024. In addition, should we successfully execute our financial and strategic plans through 2025, total implied cumulative distributions of approximately € 8 billion in respect of financial years 2021-2025 would be achievable. Our ambition to return capital to shareholders is further underpinned by our aim to maintain a robust Common Equity Tier 1 (CET 1) capital ratio of approximately 13 %, i.e. a CET 1 ratio of no less than 200 basis points above our Maximum Distributable Amount (MDA) threshold we currently assume to prevail over time. Our strategic goals are subject to various internal and external factors and to market, regulatory, economic and political uncertainties, and to limitations relating to our operating model. These could negatively impact the implementation of our strategic goals, the realization of their anticipated benefits, or our ability to achieve our financial targets for 2022 or our additional financial targets for 2025. In particular, our strategic objectives are subject to the following assumptions and risks: – Geopolitical developments, in particular with respect to the large-scale Russian military action against Ukraine, also may impact global and regional economies and markets other than in short-term ways and may result in adverse effects on our business, results of operations or strategic plans and targets, and the prices of our securities. Other geopolitical risks exist with respect to China and from political and economic instability in key markets. – The current COVID-19 pandemic and its potential impact on the global economy may affect our ability to meet our financial targets. A protracted downturn in local, regional or global economic conditions may result in adverse effects on our business, results of operations or strategic plans and targets, and the prices of our securities. – The base case scenario for our financial and capital plan includes revenue growth estimates which are dependent on positive macroeconomic developments. Stagnation or a downturn in the macroeconomic environment could significantly impact our ability to generate the revenue growth necessary to achieve these strategic financial and capital targets. This base case scenario also includes assumptions regarding our ability to reduce costs in future periods. – In addition, our base case scenario includes an expectation of low but rising interest rates, in accordance with our assessment of the forward interest rate curve. If interest rates do not rise as we have expected, our revenues may not develop as we expect. – Our strategic objectives are also based on assumptions regarding inflation levels, which have risen over the past year and the outlook for which remains uncertain. If inflation does not develop as we expect, or if our commercial leverage in relations with suppliers and third parties does not enable us to resist inflationary pressures, our businesses may be adversely impacted and our costs may increase. – Our plans are based upon January 31, 2022 foreign exchange rates, particularly with respect to the euro and U.S. dollar. In the event that exchange rates change from these levels, our ability to achieve our goals may be adversely affected. – Results for the Investment Bank in 2021 were supported by high levels of market activity in investment banking as an industry. The ability of the Investment Bank to continue its performance is dependent on the continuation of high levels of market activity. – For 2022, we expect provisions for credit losses of around 20 basis points as a percentage of average loans. Should higher levels of provisions for credit losses be required, our results of operations and our ability to meet our strategic financial and capital targets may be adversely affected. – We expect that we will be able to overcome significant challenges arising from our business model. We continue to rely on our trading and markets businesses as a significant source of profit. Depending on how economic and market conditions evolve, such businesses may be adversely impacted or be unable to achieve the profitability we seek from them. – Asset and client levels have been impacted by the negative market perceptions of Deutsche Bank from time to time. A continued or renewed negative market focus on Deutsche Bank could result in new client and asset outflows. – We expect that de-leveraging of CRU will continue, while reducing cost. In the event that the CRU is not able to de-leverage or reduce costs as planned, our objectives could be jeopardized. – In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic temporarily reduced the rate of regular employee attrition versus historical levels, though in 2021 staff attrition levels reverted back closer to pre-pandemic trends. In the event that attrition levels again decrease, this can create a more challenging context to our cost targets. Conversely, if the attrition rate increases versus historical levels, this may adversely affect our ability to attract and retain talented personnel, particularly in front-office positions that are key to revenue generation and in positions key to improving our control environment. – Regulatory changes could also adversely impact our ability to achieve our strategic aims. In particular, regulators could demand changes to our business model or organization that could reduce our profitability, or we may be forced to make changes that reduce our profitability in an effort to remain compliant with laws and regulations. – We are involved in numerous litigation, arbitration and regulatory proceedings and investigations in Germany and in a number of jurisdictions outside of Germany, especially in the United States. Such matters are subject to many uncertainties. We expect the litigation environment to continue to be challenging. If litigation and regulatory matters occur at the same or higher rate and magnitude than they have in some recent years or if we are subject to sustained market speculation about our potential exposure to such matters, we may not be able to achieve our strategic aspirations. – We currently operate a highly complex infrastructure, which can compromise the quality of the overall control environment. Establishing a more efficient bank with a strong control environment depends on successfully streamlining and simplifying our IT landscape as well as cultural change. – A robust and effective internal control environment is necessary to ensure that we conduct our business in compliance with the laws and regulations applicable to us. We may be unable to complete our initiatives to enhance the efficacy of our internal control environment as quickly as we intend or as our regulators demand, and our efforts may be insufficient to prevent all future deficiencies in our control environment or to result in fewer litigations or regulatory and enforcement investigations and proceedings in the future. Furthermore, implementation of enhanced controls may result in higher-than- expected costs of regulatory compliance that could offset efficiency gains. – In particular, if some of the above risks were to materialize in the short-term such that our revenues would be negatively impacted or our cost base would significantly increase, we may not be able to achieve our cost-income ratio target of 70 % for 2022. For example, revenues could fall short of our expectations or expenses such as bank levies, litigation expenses, or staff costs may be higher than expected. If we fail to implement our strategic initiatives in whole or in part or should the initiatives that are implemented fail to produce the anticipated benefits, or should the costs we incur to implement our initiatives exceed the amounts anticipated, or should we fail to achieve the publicly communicated targets we have set for implementation of these initiatives, we may fail to achieve our financial objectives, or incur losses or low profitability or erosions of our capital base, and our financial condition, results of operations and share price may be materially and adversely affected.
Macro & Political
Total Risks: 10/48 (21%)Above Sector Average
Economy & Political Environment7 | 14.6%
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 1
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In the European Union, potential political shocks and uncertainties could have unpredictable consequences for the financial system and the wider economy, and could contribute to European de-integration in certain areas, potentially leading to declines in business levels, write-downs of assets and losses across our businesses. Our ability to protect ourselves against these risks is limited.
Since the global financial crisis and subsequent European sovereign debt crisis between 2009 and 2012, political uncertainty in Europe has been elevated. The withdrawal of the UK from the European Union (“Brexit”) in particular, but also, the increasing attractiveness to voters of populist political movements in other member states has raised concerns about a potential unwinding of aspects of European integration that have benefitted our businesses. While the European financial architecture and crisis response capabilities were strengthened substantially over the past decade, since 2020, the crisis caused by the pandemic has led to a massive deterioration of the fiscal situation for many EU and EMU countries again. To support the economic recovery and modernization, the EU has launched the unprecedented, multi-year Next Generation EU program, comprising grants and loans of more than € 800 billion (at current prices) and committing the member states to pursue ambitious national structural reform and investment plans to receive the funds. This has improved the prospects for growth-enhancing structural reforms and further integration among EU member states, both viewed as important tools to reduce the Eurozone’s vulnerabilities to future crises. However, given the political uncertainties, e.g. stemming from coming parliamentary and presidential elections in several countries, there remain downside risks to the future economic performance and political cohesion in Europe. If these risks materialize, they may ultimately result in material reductions in our business levels as our customers rein in activity levels in light of decreased economic output and increased uncertainty, which would materially adversely affect our operating results and financial condition. An escalation of political risks could have consequences for the financial system, public debt sustainability, the value of the euro and the greater economy as a whole, potentially leading to declines in business levels, write-downs of assets and losses across our businesses. If , in an extreme tail risk scenario, one or more members of the Eurozone defaults on their debt obligations or decides to leave the common currency, this would result in the reintroduction of one or more national currencies. Should a Eurozone country conclude it must exit the common currency, the resulting need to reintroduce a national currency and restate existing contractual obligations could have unpredictable financial, legal, political and social consequences, leading not only to significant losses on sovereign debt but also on private debt in that country. Given the highly interconnected nature of the financial system within the Eurozone, and the high levels of exposure we have to public and private counterparties around Europe, our ability to plan for such a contingency in a manner that would reduce our exposure to non-material levels is likely to be limited. If the overall economic climate deteriorates as a result of Brexit or further departures from the Eurozone, our businesses could be adversely affected, and, if overall business levels decline or we are forced to write down significant exposures among our various businesses, we could incur substantial losses.
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 2
Transactions with counterparties in countries designated by the U.S. State Department as state sponsors of terrorism or persons targeted by U.S. economic sanctions may lead potential customers and investors to avoid doing business with us or investing in our securities, harm our reputation or result in regulatory or enforcement action which could materially and adversely affect our business.
We engage or have engaged in a limited amount of business with counterparties, including government-owned or -controlled counterparties, in certain countries or territories that are subject to comprehensive U.S. sanctions, including Iran and Cuba (referred to as “Sanctioned Countries”), or with persons targeted by U.S. economic sanctions (referred to as “Sanctioned Persons”). U.S. law generally prohibits U.S. persons or any other persons acting within U.S. jurisdiction (which includes business with a U.S. nexus) from dealings with or relating to Sanctioned Countries or Sanctioned Persons. Additionally, U.S. indirect or “secondary” sanctions threaten the imposition of sanctions against non-U.S. persons entirely outside of U.S. jurisdiction for engaging in certain activities, including categories of transactions with certain entities and countries. Thus, U.S. sanctions may implicate activities in other geographic areas and by non-U.S. persons depending on the circumstances. Our U.S. subsidiaries, branch offices, and employees are, and, in some cases, our non-U.S. subsidiaries, branch offices, and employees are or become, subject to such prohibitions and other regulations. We are a German bank and our activities with respect to Sanctioned Countries and Sanctioned Persons have been subject to policies and procedures designed to avoid the involvement of U.S. jurisdiction, including U.S. persons acting in any managerial or operational role and to ensure compliance with United Nations, European Union and German sanctions and embargoes; in reflection of legal developments in recent years, we have further developed our policies and procedures with the aim of promoting – to the extent legally permitted – compliance with regulatory requirements extending to other geographic areas regardless of jurisdiction. However, should our policies prove to be, or have been, ineffective, we may be subject to regulatory or enforcement action that could materially and adversely affect our reputation, financial condition, or business. We have also taken other action to reduce the risk of compliance violations. In 2007, our Management Board decided that we will not engage in new business with counterparties in countries such as Iran, Syria, Sudan and North Korea and to exit existing business to the extent legally possible. In 2014, we added the Crimea Region, and in 2021 Afghanistan to this list of countries, whilst de-listing Sudan. We also decided to limit our business with counterparties in Cuba. Iran, North Korea, Syria and Cuba are currently designated as state sponsors of terrorism by the U.S. State Department. We had a representative office in Tehran, Iran, which we discontinued on December 31, 2007. Our remaining business with Iranian counterparties consisted mostly of participations as lender and/or agent in a few large trade finance facilities arranged before 2007 to finance the export contracts of exporters in Europe and Asia. As of December 31, 2018, those loans were fully paid back, subsequently the majority of the remaining Iranian business consists of legacy contractual obligations related to guarantees. We do not believe our business activities with Iranian counterparties are or had been material to our overall business, with the aforementioned guarantees having notional amounts of substantially less than 0.01 % of our total assets over recent years. As of December 31, 2021, the revenues from such activities represented substantially less than 0.01 % of our total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2021. As required by Section 219 of the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act of 2012 (Section 13(r) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) we have disclosed certain information regarding our activities or transactions with persons subject to U.S. sanctions against Iran and other persons subject to such provision. Such disclosure is set forth in the section of this document entitled “Disclosures Under Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act of 2012”, which follows “Item 16I: Disclosure Regarding Foreign Jurisdictions that Prevent Inspections”. We are also engaged in a limited amount of business with counterparties domiciled in Cuba, which is not subject to any United Nations, European Union or German embargoes. The business consists of a limited number of letters of credit and of cash payments, each without a U.S. nexus, and it represented substantially less than 0.01 % of our assets as of December 31, 2021. The letters of credit served to finance commercial products such as machinery as well as medical products. We have set up processes and procedures aimed at complying with other substantial changes in U.S. economic sanctions that have occurred since 2017. In August 2017, the United States enacted the “Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act” (referred to as “CAATSA”), which codifies existing U.S. sanctions against Russia (including designation of Russian entities under U.S. sanctions), expands U.S. secondary sanctions against Russia, tightens existing sectoral sanctions (targeting specific sectors of the Russian economy), and permits the imposition of sectoral sanctions against additional sectors of the Russian economy. In particular, expanded U.S. secondary sanctions under CAATSA allow for the imposition of U.S. sanctions on, among others, non-U.S. entities who engage in, among other activities, “significant” transactions with persons targeted under Russia-related sanctions or specific entities in the Russian defense and intelligence sectors, as well as certain energy projects relating to Russia. We do not believe we have engaged or are currently engaged in any transactions with Russian entities that violate, or are sanctionable under, U.S. sanctions. However, given the broad discretion U.S. authorities have in interpreting and enforcing U.S. sanctions, there can be no assurances that U.S. authorities will not bring enforcement actions against us, or impose secondary sanctions on us for our ongoing activities. Any such actions could have a material impact on our business and harm our reputation. Further, as noted earlier in these Risk Factors, in response to the recent large-scale Russian military action against Ukraine, the United States, as well as other nations and the EU, have expanded sanctions on Russia and Russian entities; such sanctions could have a material impact on our business activities. Additionally, since 2017, the U.S. Administration has imposed a number of sanctions against the Government of Venezuela and Venezuelan officials. These sanctions prohibit (beginning on August 5, 2019) virtually all unlicensed transactions involving the Government of Venezuela, including state-owned or state-controlled companies, and also threaten to impose sanctions on (non-U.S.) persons having materially assisted such transactions or dealings. We have taken steps and established processes and procedures aimed at complying with these U.S. sanctions against the Government of Venezuela. In response to these U.S. sanctions, we have wound down several client relationships. With respect to entities of the Government of Venezuela, we are currently only engaged in legacy transactions. We do not believe that any of our remaining activities related to the Government of Venezuela violate U.S. sanctions. However, given the broad discretion U.S. authorities have in interpreting and enforcing U.S. sanctions, there can be no assurances that U.S. authorities will not allege that our ongoing activities violate U.S. sanctions. Political and trade tensions between the United States and China led to a series of sanctions and countermeasures in 2020 and 2021, some of which were particularly relevant to financial institutions. In June 2021, the United States adopted Executive Order 14032, which amended an existing restriction and restricts purchases and sales by U.S. persons of certain publicly traded securities linked to companies the United States determines are affiliated with the Chinese military-industrial complex, as well as publicly traded securities that are derivative of or designed to provide investment exposure to such securities. Executive Order 14032 amended and clarified similar restrictions that had been imposed under a previous executive order. While we have implemented changes in our control processes to promote compliance with these requirements, such measures raise potential regulatory compliance and conflicts of laws challenges and the impacts of such measures could be material and adverse. We are aware, through press reports and other means, of initiatives by governmental and non-governmental entities in the United States and elsewhere to adopt laws, regulations or policies prohibiting transactions with or investment in, or requiring divestment from, entities doing business with Sanctioned Countries, particularly China, Iran and Russia. Such initiatives may result in our being unable to gain or retain entities subject to such prohibitions as customers or as investors in our securities. In addition, our reputation may suffer due to our association with such countries. Such a result could have significant adverse effects on our business or the price of our securities. Sanctions are subject to rapid change and it is also possible that new direct or indirect secondary sanctions could be imposed by the United States or other jurisdictions without warning as a result of geopolitical developments.
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 3
The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union – Brexit – may have adverse effects on our business, results of operations or strategic plans.
The UK Government concluded a Trade Cooperation Agreement (TCA) with the European Union which came into effect on January 1, 2021. Uncertainty remains, however, as negotiations between the UK and the EU have continued through 2021, especially with regard to financial services not extensively covered by the existing deal. Discussions on the nature of this extension and the final outcome will continue in 2022. Given the ongoing uncertaint y over the medium- and long-term effects of the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, it is difficult to determine the exact impact on Deutsche Bank AG over the long term. However, the UK’s economy and those of the Eurozone countries are very tightly linked as a result of EU integration projects other than the Euro, and the scale of our businesses in the UK – especially those dependent on activity levels in the City of London, to which we are heavily exposed and which may deteriorate as a result of Brexit – means that even modest effects in percentage terms can have a very substantial adverse effect on our businesses. Brexit has, unfortunately, resulted in a disruption of the provision of cross-border financial services. Also, if there is to be further delay or possibly a failure to reach agreement on matters determining mutual ‘equivalence’ under respective legislation, this will lead to greater costs to reorganize parts of our business and will restrict our ability to provide financial services to and from the UK in the seamless manner that was done previously. The currently unsettled future relationship between the EU and the UK is also likely to lead to further uncertainty in relation to the regulation of cross-border business activities. Recent announcements from the EU commission confirming an extension to the current temporary equivalence arrangements for UK CCPs (Central Clearing Counterparty) has removed the risk that access to UK clearing would be withheld from EU firms from June 2022 (when the previous extension expired). Without equivalence between EU and UK regimes for financial services we will be restricted in our ability to provide financial services to and from the UK. We have applied for authorization from the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), our UK regulators, to continue to undertake regulated activity in the UK (previously undertaken pursuant to the European Passport provisions). Failure to gain authorization as a Third Country Branch could adversely affect our business, results of operations or strategic plans. More broadly, some economic downside risks remain in case the UK were to invoke Article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol which, in a worst-case outcome, could lead to the EU suspending the Brexit trade deal. In the absence of a negotiated solution, World Trade Organization (WTO) rules could eventually apply which could mean higher tariffs which would further negatively impact trade and economic activity. Despite our extensive preparations, as a result of Brexit, our business and strategic plans could be adversely affected. It is difficult to assess any adverse consequences with any quantitative certainty at this time, particularly since they will depend on future political and market developments.
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 4
Changed
As a corporate and investment bank with a large private client franchise, our businesses are materially affected by global macroeconomic and financial market conditions. Significant challenges may arise from economic growth prospects, the interest rate environment, inflationary pressure, supply chain disruptions, geopolitical risks as well as higher market volatility, potential deterioration of international trade relations, and weakness of global, regional and national economic conditions. Such risks exist in particular from the COVID-19 pandemic and its ongoing impacts, and the large-scale Russian military action against Ukraine. Other risks exist with respect to China and from political and economic instability in key markets.
Deutsche Bank’s macroeconomic, business and operating environment improved over the course of 2021 as the global economy experienced a strong recovery from the pandemic recession. However, the near-term outlook has deteriorated, and downside risks have increased as inflationary pressure has intensified further, supply-side disruptions have become more entrenched, and the new, highly infectious Omicron variant of COVID-19 spread rapidly across the globe. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to present tangible downside risk to our business. The global surge in COVID-19 cases related to the highly transmissible Omicron variant has negatively impacted economic activity due to increased restrictions imposed by governments across many countries, despite indications that it causes less severe disease than previous variants. Impacts are expected to subside as vaccination rates continue to increase globally and new antiviral drugs become available which should limit the number of severe illnesses and deaths, although vaccination rates in many emerging markets continue to lag behind and developed markets continue to face vaccine hesitancy in significant parts of their population. As a result, the timing and strength of economic recoveries will continue to vary from country to country. The emergence of new variants of concern may require further social distancing requirements or lockdowns and the effects of these are not fully predictable as they will vary depending on the nature of the variant, country-specific pandemic conditions and policy preferences. Countries which have pursued a zero COVID-19 policy, including China, might struggle to contain Omicron as successfully as other variants due to its more infectious nature. Although some incipient changes in policy have started to occur, strict lockdowns may be required which could impact China’s economy and global supply chains. On February 24, 2022, Russia commenced large-scale military action against Ukraine. This followed weeks of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the West, and the recognition by Russia of two separatist-held areas in Eastern Ukraine as independent states. News of the Russian military action negatively impacted stock prices and caused many commodities to rally, with the Brent crude oil price exceeding U.S.$ 100 a barrel and natural gas prices also increasing sharply. The conflict could lead to a further rise in energy prices (particularly natural gas) if supplies are disrupted and presents a key downside risk for corporates and households in Europe and may further exacerbate supply chain risks of clients with higher sensitivities to rising energy costs. Ensuing turbulence in global financial markets could impact risky assets and countries. Taken together, the conflict and its ancillary effects could lead to a substantial slowdown in the global economy and diminish our ability to generate revenues and the profitability on specific portfolios as well as result in higher-than-expected loan losses. Depending on how this crisis develops further and its impact on financial markets and the economy generally it may also impact our ability to meet stated financial and non-financial targets. Supply chain pressures in global production, trade and logistics resulting from the pandemic and subsequent strong pick-up in demand will likely persist through 2022, constraining output and fueling price inflation of manufactured and intermediate goods as well as energy and other commodities. Consumer price inflation rates have hit multi-decade highs in Europe and the US and soaring energy prices are driving cost pressures for corporates and households which may impact the quality of our portfolios in particular in directly impacted industries such as Utilities. As a result, we may observe higher than expected defaults in selected industries or regions, higher drawdowns of credit facilities and generally higher market volatility. The inflation outlook remains uncertain. Consensus and market-implied projections point to continuously elevated inflationary pressure as supply bottlenecks and other temporary factors fade only slowly. Although major central banks are expected to gradually remove extraordinary monetary policy stimulus by phasing out emergency bond purchases and lifting key policy rates, there remains a risk that consumer and asset price inflation in major advanced economies will continue to accelerate faster than anticipated, requiring more aggressive monetary policy tightening. While this could create some upside potential for our business activity levels and net interest income, a disorderly sharp increase in bond yields could trigger a downward correction to equities and the widening of credit spreads, which could adversely impact trading results. In addition, we could see increased counterparty credit exposure on derivatives, increased credit risks on highly leveraged clients and emerging markets with external imbalances as well as risks to our pension fund assets. More broadly, this could impact the valuation of our assets and liabilities and drive changes in the composition of our balance sheet. Despite elevated inflationary pressures, interest rates remain extremely low currently with the European Central Bank (“ECB”) deposit facility rate still set at -0.50 %, German nominal Bund yields, until recently, trading at / close to negative territory and real rates deeply negative. The low interest rate environment has supported elevated market valuations across risk assets, particularly in US equities including the technology sector. Most recently, macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns have sent US equities into correction territory, with significant price declines among technology companies, and the risk of a significant and sustained equity price decline may be heightened further if policy rates rise more rapidly and to a higher level than currently anticipated. Delayed tightening would likely further exacerbate stretched market valuations and drive renewed pressure on bank interest margins. More importantly, a further prolonged period of low interest rates in the Eurozone could materially affect our profitability and balance sheet deployment. While our revenues are particularly sensitive to interest rates, given the size of our loan and deposit books denominated in Euros, the low interest rate environment can also impact other balance sheet positions, which are accounted at fair value Compared to the low level of credit loss provisions observed in 2021, we expect the level to increase in 2022. This reflects our expectation of a slowdown of macroeconomic growth from the exceptionally strong levels in 2021 and the existence of various risk drivers such as lagging COVID-19 pandemic effects for certain asset classes like commercial real estate, persistent supply chain disruptions, inflation and geopolitical risks. Additionally, the possibility of new COVID-19 variants continues to pose the risk of triggering new, severe responses by governments as well as adverse market and client reactions. These could lead to increasing loan losses as well as potential client drawdowns of credit facilities (as observed in 2020) which in turn would lead to an increase in capital requirements and liquidity demands. Higher volatility in financial markets could lead to increased margin calls both inbound and outbound. Policy measures taken by central banks and governments such as debt moratoria have helped to mitigate some of the short-term impacts in 2020 and 2021. The withdrawal of support measures coupled with a significant increase in corporate and sovereign debt levels as a result of the pandemic (including second-round effects, e.g., on supply-chains) could also cause defaults and credit losses to increase. We regularly utilize collateralized loan obligations (CLO) and credit default swaps (CDS) to manage concentration risk. However, this may not be sufficient to fully offset potential credit losses. China-related risks are elevated with ongoing concerns over the potential for a broad and persistent deterioration of China’s highly leveraged property sector and property developers. We have seen numerous rating actions by external agencies, noting that some of the names which have seen significant rating deterioration were up until recently investment-grade rated, and widespread liquidity shortages for the sector. Stabilizing the economy has become a key priority for the Chinese government in 2022, but risks of ongoing liquidity constraints and selected defaults in the property sector remain elevated. In a severe downside this may lead to broader contagion across weaker state- and privately owned enterprises which could drive increased losses, including higher credit provisions, in our portfolio. If these risks materialize, or current negative conditions persist or worsen, our business, results of operations or strategic plans could be adversely affected.
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 5
Added
We are subject to other macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, including with respect to China, which could negatively affect the business environment, leading to weaker economic activity and a broader correction in the financial markets.
Tensions between the U.S. and China remain elevated across a wide range of areas, including trade and technology-related issues, Hong Kong, Taiwan, human rights, and cybersecurity. The U.S. has imposed selected sanctions as well as export and investment restrictions on Chinese companies and officials, and China has imposed sanctions on certain U.S. companies and officials and introduced a framework for blocking regulations aimed at the extraterritorial application of sanctions against China. Likewise, the EU has imposed sanctions on China in relation to human rights issues, which were reciprocated by China. While we cannot predict the impacts of sanctions on our business or our financial targets, such measures raise potential regulatory compliance and conflicts of laws challenges and the impacts could be material and adverse. Other geopolitical risks, which could negatively impact our business environment and our financial targets include the potential for escalation in the Middle East over Iran’s nuclear program, should the United States and Iran fail to reach agreement over a return to or implementation of a new JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal). If any of these risks materialize, they may adversely affect our results of operations, strategic plans and targets, and the prices of our securities.
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 6
Our results of operation and financial condition have in the past been negatively impacted by the challenging market environment, uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions, lower levels of client activity, increased competition and regulation, and the immediate impact of our strategic decisions. If we are unable to improve our profitability, we may be unable to meet our strategic aspirations, and may have difficulty maintaining capital, liquidity and leverage at levels expected by market participants and our regulators.
The Bank experienced an increase in net revenues in 2021 compared to 2020, which in turn was higher than 2019. The revenue increase was driven by benefits of underlying market activity, which offset the impact of interest rate headwinds, negative impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic and industry-wide margin compression. The ability of our Investment Bank to continue its performance of 2021 is dependent on the continuation of high levels of market activity in investment banking as an industry. This will likely be impacted by the development of the COVID-19 pandemic, which continues to pose significant downside risks, and by geopolitical events and pressures such as the large-scale Russian military action against Ukraine and tensions with China. The COVID-19 pandemic also has intensified the “lower for longer” interest rate environment, which has impacted the results of several of our divisions. The low-rate environment has also supported elevated market valuations across risk assets as investors search for yield. These trends raise the risk of a significant and sustained asset price correction following from an increase in interest rates. Risks are amplified by high debt levels, a lack of liquidity in some areas of the market and an easing of global underwriting standards. Adverse market conditions, unfavorable prices and volatility including material movements in foreign exchange rates (and resulting translation effects) as well as cautious investor and client sentiment may in the future materially and adversely affect our revenues and profits as well as the timely and complete achievement of our strategic aspirations and targets. Changes in our business mix towards lower-margin, lower-risk products can limit our opportunities to profit from volatility. Regulators have generally encouraged the banking sector to focus more on the facilitation of client flow and less on risk taking. This has been effected in part by increasing capital requirements for higher-risk activities. In addition, some of our regulators have encouraged or welcomed changes to our business perimeter, consistent with their emphasis on lower-risk activities for banks. In recent years, we have reduced our exposure to a number of businesses that focused on riskier but more capital-intensive products (but that in earlier periods also had the potential to be more highly profitable). Further pressure on our revenues and profitability has resulted from long-term structural trends driven by regulation (especially increased regulatory capital, leverage and liquidity requirements and increased compliance costs) and competition that have further compressed our margins in many of our businesses. Should a combination of these factors continue to lead to reduced margins and subdued activity levels in our trading and markets business over the longer term, this could impair out ability to reach our financial targets. Although we have in current years made considerable progress resolving litigation, enforcement and similar matters broadly within our established reserves, this pattern may not continue. In particular, these costs could substantially exceed the level of provisions that we established for our litigation, enforcement and similar matters, which can contribute to negative market perceptions about our financial health, costing us business. This, combined with the actual costs of litigation, enforcement and other matters, could in turn adversely affect our ability to maintain capital, liquidity and leverage at levels expected by market participants and our regulators.
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 7
Added
In addition to its broader macroeconomic impacts, the large-scale Russian military action against Ukraine may adversely affect our business and operations.
In response to the large-scale Russian military action against Ukraine, Western countries and the EU have moved to impose broad-based sanctions (including asset-freeze / blocking sanctions) targeting Russia, including but not limited to major Russian banks, the Russian Central Bank, certain other companies, Russian parliament members and certain members of the Russian elite and their families as well as announced the disconnection of select Russian banks from SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication). The sanctions have also banned primary and/or secondary trading of sovereign debt and other select securities. It is possible that additional sanctions may be imposed, including additional or new asset-freezing / blocking sanctions of individuals (SDNs) or companies (including further systemically important corporates and banks), a prohibition on the conversion of RUB into USD, EUR or GBP, and the disconnection of additional Russian banks from the SWIFT financial transfers system. Sanctions are subject to rapid change and it is also possible that new direct or indirect secondary sanctions could be imposed by the United States or other jurisdictions without warning as a result of developments. Considering the sanctions announced in the wake of the Russian military action, we are facing an unprecedented amount of sanctions measures, not all of which are fully aligned across jurisdictions and therefore further increase operational complexity and risk of making errors in managing day-to-day business activities within the rapidly evolving sanctions environment. Generally, enhanced Russia sanctions results in increased complexity of our control environment and, the more clients are impacted, the more challenging it could be to completely wind-down cases within the timeframe provided by licenses or authorizations. New sanctions as well as countermeasures by the Russian government could also result in differences between the local application and/or implementation of relevant requirements by DB Moscow and the DB Group (as DB Moscow would have to adhere to local law). Subsequently, this would create conflict of law situations and certain exemptions would have to be applied. Furthermore, Deutsche Bank is utilizing inhouse technology resources in Russia, which contribute to the development of a number of the Bank’s critical applications. We are subject to the risk that our ability to utilize these technology resources could be impaired or lost, for instance due to sanctions from the West, Russian state-initiated actions or management actions. We are monitoring closely the developments relating to heightened sanctions, including Russian countermeasures, and utilizing dedicated governance structures including Global and Regional Crisis Management as and when required. We have also seen increased cyber-attacks, which may pose direct and indirect risks to us. The downside impact of the ongoing situation concerning Ukraine, from both a financial and non-financial risk perspective will depend on how the current crisis will unfold further. Russia’s large-scale military action against Ukraine and the West’s severe sanctions response against Russia may have significant negative economic consequences not only for the Russian economy but for Europe too. The crisis has the potential to worsen the already stressed energy price situation in Europe which could lead to an economic slowdown driving increased losses, including higher credit provisions, in our portfolio. The regulatory environment or other restrictions including sanctions imposed may result in our business activities related to Russia becoming unviable or that we lose control over our assets. Despite the business continuity and crisis management policies currently in place, the conflict also poses challenges related to personnel as well as loss of business continuity, which may disrupt our business and lead to material losses.
Natural and Human Disruptions2 | 4.2%
Natural and Human Disruptions - Risk 1
Added
In addition to its broader macroeconomic impacts, the COVID-19 pandemic has and may continue to adversely affect our business and operations in other ways, including with respect to our operating environment and personnel.
From an operational perspective, and despite the business continuity and crisis management policies currently in place, the COVID-19 pandemic, the emergence of new variants of the virus and resulting rapid changes in government responses may continue to have an adverse impact on our business activities and control environment. The continuing move across global industries to conduct business from home and away from primary office locations is driving a more accelerated evolution of business practices compared to historic trends. The demand on our technology infrastructure and the risk of cyber-attacks could lead to technology failures, security breaches, unauthorized access, loss or destruction of data or unavailability of services, as well as increase the likelihood of conduct breaches. Any of these events could potentially result in litigation, a financial loss, disruption of our business activities and liability to our customers, regulatory scrutiny, government intervention or damage to our reputation. At the same time the cost to us of managing these cyber, information security and other risks remains high. Delays in the implementation of regulatory requirements, including consumer protection measures and of our strategic projects, could also have a negative impact on our revenues and costs, while a return of higher market volatility has led, and could continue to lead, to increased demand on markets surveillance monitoring and processing. Our vendors and service providers are facing similar challenges with the risk that these counterparties could be unable to fulfil their contractual obligations, putting the benefits we seek to obtain from such contracts at risk. The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily reduced the rate of regular employee attrition versus historical levels, creating a more challenging context to our cost targets and increasing the cost of involuntary severance arrangements. This also limited the opportunity to redeploy talented employees within the bank whose roles were made redundant. Requests from regulators to demonstrate moderation in the levels of compensation that we can offer may have put the Group at a disadvantage in attracting and retaining talented employees. However, in 2021, staff attrition levels have reverted to pre-pandemic levels and we are particularly focused on developments in the Asia-Pacific region. If the attrition rate increases versus historical levels, this may adversely affect our ability to attract and retain talented personnel, particularly in front-office positions that are key to revenue generation and in positions key to improving our control environment. Globally, we observe extremely competitive markets for employees, particularly in the United States and India. If any of these risks materialize, they may adversely affect our results of operations, strategic plans and targets, and the prices of our securities.
Natural and Human Disruptions - Risk 2
Added
The impacts of rising global temperatures, and the enhanced focus on climate change and the transition to a “net-zero” economy from society, our regulators and the banking sector, have led to the emergence of new and increasing sources of financial and non-financial risks. These include the physical risks arising from extreme weather events. which are growing in frequency and severity. transition risks as carbon-intensive sectors are faced with higher taxation, reduced demand and potentially restricted access to financing, and risks relating to the portrayal of ESG aspect of activities. These risks can impact Deutsche Bank across a broad range of financial and non-financial risk types.
Financial institutions are facing increased scrutiny on climate and broader environmental, social and governance (ESG)-related issues from governments, regulators, shareholders and other bodies, leading to reputational risks if we are not seen to support the transition to a lower carbon economy, and to protect biodiversity and human rights. We are also required to review and enhance our ESG risk management frameworks in alignment with emerging regulatory guidance and to ensure that we accurately portray the ESG aspects of our activities. There is a lack of consistent and comprehensive ESG data and methodologies available today which means that we are heavily reliant on proxy estimates and qualitative approaches when assessing the risks to our balance sheet, which introduces a high degree of uncertainty into our climate-related disclosures. In 2022, the ECB will conduct its first climate stress test, an exercise which contains a number of novel and complex elements which require the development of new methodologies and data sources. Deutsche Bank is committed to managing our business activities and operations in a sustainable manner, including aligning our portfolios with net zero emissions by 2050. We are continuing to develop and implement our approach to environmental risk assessments and management in order to promote the integration of environmental-related factors across our business activities. This includes the ability to identify, monitor and manage risks and to conduct regular scenario analysis and stress testing. Both rapidly changing regulatory as well as stakeholder demands, combined with significant focus by stakeholders, may materially affect our businesses if we fail to adopt such demands or appropriately implement our strategic plans.
Capital Markets1 | 2.1%
Capital Markets - Risk 1
Adverse market conditions, asset price deteriorations, volatility and cautious investor sentiment have affected and may in the future materially and adversely affect our revenues and profits, particularly in our investment banking, brokerage and other commission- and fee-based businesses. As a result, we have in the past incurred and may in the future incur significant losses from our trading and investment activities.
As a global investment bank, we have significant exposure to the financial markets and are more at risk from adverse developments in the financial markets than are institutions engaged predominantly in traditional banking activities. Sustained market declines have in the past caused and can in the future cause our revenues to decline, and, if we are unable to reduce our expenses at the same pace, can cause our profitability to erode or cause us to show material losses. Volatility can also adversely affect us, by causing the value of financial assets we hold to decline or the expense of hedging our risks to rise. Reduced customer activity can also lead to lower revenues in our “flow” business. Specifically, our investment banking revenues, in the form of financial advisory and underwriting fees, directly relate to the number and size of the transactions in which we participate and are susceptible to adverse effects from sustained market downturns. These fees and other income are generally linked to the value of the underlying transactions and therefore can decline with asset values. In addition, periods of market decline and uncertainty tend to dampen client appetite for market and credit risk, a critical driver of transaction volumes and investment banking revenues, especially transactions with higher margins. In recent and other times in the past, decreased client appetite for risk has led to lower levels of activity and lower levels of profitability in our Investment Bank corporate division. Our revenues and profitability could sustain material adverse effects from a significant reduction in the number or size of debt and equity offerings and merger and acquisition transactions. Market downturns also have led and may in the future lead to declines in the volume of transactions that we execute for our clients and, therefore, to declines in our noninterest income. In addition, because the fees that we charge for managing our clients’ portfolios are in many cases based on the value or performance of those portfolios, a market downturn that reduces the value of our clients’ portfolios or increases the amount of withdrawals reduces the revenues we receive from our asset management and private banking businesses. Even in the absence of a market downturn, below-market or negative performance by our investment funds may result in increased withdrawals and reduced inflows, which would reduce the revenue we receive. While our clients would be responsible for losses we incur in taking positions for their accounts, we may be exposed to additional credit risk as a result of their need to cover the losses where we do not hold adequate collateral or cannot realize it. Our business may also suffer if our clients lose money and we lose the confidence of clients in our products and services. In addition, the revenues and profits we derive from many of our trading and investment positions and our transactions in connection with them can be directly and negatively impacted by market prices. In each of the product and business lines in which we enter into these trading and investment positions, part of our business entails making assessments about the financial markets and trends in them. When we own assets, market price declines can expose us to losses. Many of the more sophisticated transactions of our Investment Bank corporate division are influenced by price movements and differences among prices. If prices move in a way we have not anticipated, we may experience losses. Also, when markets are volatile, the assessments we have made may prove to lead to lower revenues or profits, or may lead to losses, on the related transactions and positions. In addition, we commit capital and take market risk to facilitate certain capital markets transactions; doing so can result in losses as well as income volatility. Such losses may especially occur on assets we hold for which there are not very liquid markets to begin with. Assets that are not traded on stock exchanges or other public trading markets, such as derivatives contracts between banks, may have values that we calculate using models other than publicly quoted prices. Monitoring the deterioration of prices of assets like these is difficult and could lead to losses we did not anticipate. We can also be adversely affected if general perceptions of risk cause uncertain investors to remain on the sidelines of the market, curtailing their activity and in turn reducing the levels of activity in those of our businesses dependent on transaction flow. Additionally, the current market environment is characterized by very low interest rates, particularly in the Eurozone, including negative interest yields on German government bonds. A prolonged period of low interest rates in the Eurozone or elsewhere could materially impact our net interest margin, profitability and balance sheet deployment. While our revenues are particularly sensitive to interest rates, given the size of our loan and deposit books denominated in Euros, the low interest rates environment can also impact other balance sheet positions which are accounted at fair value. These conditions could result in a significant impact on revenues relative to our current expectations. Actions to offset this rate impact, such as pricing changes or the introduction of additional fees, may not be sufficient to offset this impact. Conversely, there have been recently increases in market interest rates and there are expectations that monetary authorities will increase interest rates over the course of 2022. If such increases take place to a greater extent or rate than we or the market anticipate, this may have negative effects on the economy, markets and our businesses.
Production
Total Risks: 4/48 (8%)Below Sector Average
Manufacturing2 | 4.2%
Manufacturing - Risk 1
The size of our clearing operations exposes us to a heightened risk of material losses should these operations fail to function properly.
We have large clearing and settlement businesses and an increasingly complex and interconnected information technology (IT) landscape. These give rise to the risk that we, our customers or other third parties could lose substantial sums if our systems fail to operate properly for even short periods. This will be the case even where the reason for the interruption is external to us. In such a case, we might suffer harm to our reputation even if no material amounts of money are lost. This could cause customers to take their business elsewhere, which could materially harm our revenues and profits.
Manufacturing - Risk 2
Operational risks, which may arise from errors in the performance of our processes, the conduct of our employees, instability, malfunction or outage of our IT system and infrastructure, or loss of business continuity, or comparable issues with respect to our vendors, may disrupt our businesses and lead to material losses.
We face operational risk arising from errors, inadvertent or intentional, made in the execution, confirmation or settlement of transactions or from transactions not being properly recorded, evaluated or accounted for. An example of this risk concerns our derivative contracts, which are not always confirmed with the counterparties on a timely basis. For so long as the transaction remains unconfirmed, we are subject to heightened credit and operational risk and in the event of a default may find it more difficult to enforce the contract. In addition, our businesses are highly dependent on our ability to process manually or through our systems a large number of transactions on a daily basis, across numerous and diverse markets in many currencies. Some of the transactions have become increasingly complex. Moreover, management relies heavily on its financial, accounting and other data processing systems that include manual processing components. If any of these processes or systems do not operate properly, or are disabled, or subject to intentional or inadvertent human error, we could suffer financial loss, a disruption of our businesses, liability to clients, regulatory intervention or reputational damage. We are also dependent on our employees to conduct our business in accordance with applicable laws, regulations and generally accepted business standards. If our employees do not conduct our business in this manner, we may be exposed to material losses. Furthermore, if an employee’s misconduct reflects fraudulent intent, we could also be exposed to reputational damage. We categorize these risks as conduct risk, a term used to describe the risks associated with behavior by employees and agents, including third parties, that could harm clients, customers or the integrity of the markets, such as selling products that are not suitable for a particular customer, fraud, unauthorized trading and failure to comply with applicable regulations, laws and internal policies. U.S. regulators in particular have been increasingly focused on conduct risk, and such heightened regulatory scrutiny and expectations could lead to investigations and other inquiries, as well as remediation requirements, more regulatory or other enforcement proceedings, civil litigation and higher compliance and other risks and costs. We in particular face the risk of loss events due to the instability, malfunction or outage of our IT system and IT infrastructure, as well as breaches in IT system and infrastructure (including cyber-attacks). Such losses could materially affect our ability to perform business processes and may, for example, arise from the erroneous or delayed execution of processes as a result of system outages, degraded services in systems and IT applications or the inaccessibility of our IT systems. A delay in processing a transaction, for example, could result in an operational loss if market conditions worsen during the period after the error. IT-related errors may also result in the mishandling of confidential information, damage to our computer systems, financial losses, additional costs for repairing systems, reputational damage, customer dissatisfaction or potential regulatory or litigation exposure (including under data protection laws such as the GDPR). The move across global industries to conduct business from home and away from primary office locations in response to the COVID-19 pandemic continues to put pressure on business practices, and the demand on our technology infrastructure. Additionally, the current situation also exposes us to a greater risk of cyber-attacks, which could lead to technology failures, security breaches, unauthorized access, loss or destruction of data or unavailability of services, as well as increase the likelihood of conduct breaches. Business continuity risk is the risk of incurring losses resulting from the interruption of normal business activities. We operate in many geographic locations and are frequently subject to the occurrence of events outside of our control. Despite the contingency plans we have in place, our ability to conduct business in any of these locations may be adversely impacted by a disruption to the infrastructure that supports our business, whether as a result of, for example, events that affect our third party vendors or the community or public infrastructure in which we operate. Any number of events could cause such a disruption including deliberate acts such as sabotage, terrorist activities, bomb threats, strikes, riots and assaults on the bank’s staff; natural calamities such as hurricanes, snow storms, floods, disease pandemics (such as the current COVID-19 pandemic) and earthquakes; or other unforeseen incidents such as accidents, fires, explosions, utility outages and political unrest. Any such disruption could have a material adverse effect on our business and financial position. As a global bank, Deutsche Bank is often the subject of news reports. Deutsche Bank conducts its media dialogue through official teams. However, members of the media sometimes approach Deutsche Bank staff outside of these channels and Deutsche Bank-internal information, including confidential matters, have been subject to external news media coverage, which may result in publication of confidential information. Leaks to the media can have severe consequences for Deutsche Bank, particularly when they involve inaccurate statements, rumors, speculation or unsanctioned opinions. This can result in financial consequences such as the loss of confidence or business with clients and may impact the bank’s share price or our capital instruments by undermining investor confidence. Our ability to protect ourselves against these risks is limited.
Employment / Personnel1 | 2.1%
Employment / Personnel - Risk 1
We are exposed to pension risks which can materially impact the measurement of our pension obligations, including interest rate, inflation and longevity risks that can materially impact our earnings.
We sponsor a number of post-employment benefit plans on behalf of our employees, including defined benefit plans. Our plans are accounted for based on the nature and substance of the plan. Generally, for defined benefit plans the value of a participant’s accrued benefit is based on each employee’s remuneration and length of service. We maintain various external pension trusts to fund the majority of our defined benefit plan obligations. Our funding principle is to maintain funding of the defined benefit obligation by plan assets within a range of 90 % to 100 % of the obligation, subject to meeting any local statutory requirements. We have also determined that certain plans should remain unfunded, although their funding approach is subject to periodic review, e.g. when local regulations or practices change. Obligations for our unfunded plans are accrued on the balance sheet. For most of the externally funded defined benefit plans there are local minimum funding requirements. We can decide on any additional plan contributions, with reference to our funding principle. There are some locations, e.g. the United Kingdom, where the trustees and the Bank jointly agree contribution levels. We also sponsor retirement and termination indemnity plans in several countries, as well as some post-employment medical plans for a number of current and retired employees, mainly in the United States. The post-employment medical plans typically pay fixed percentages of medical expenses of eligible retirees after a set deductible has been met. We develop and maintain guidelines for governance and risk management, including funding, asset allocation and actuarial assumption setting. In this regard, risk management means the management and control of risks for us related to market developments (e.g., interest rate, credit spread, price inflation), asset investment, regulatory or legislative requirements, as well as monitoring demographic changes (e.g., longevity). To the extent that pension plans are funded, the assets held mitigate some of the liability risks, but introduce investment risk. In our key pension countries, our largest post-employment benefit plan risk exposures relate to potential changes in credit spreads, interest rates, price inflation and longevity, although these have been partially mitigated through the investment strategy adopted. Overall, we seek to minimize the impact of pensions on our financial position from market movements, subject to balancing the trade-offs involved in financing post-employment benefits, regulatory capital and constraints from local funding or accounting requirements. All plans are valued annually by independent qualified actuaries using the projected unit credit method, with inputs including the discount rate, inflation rate, rate of increase in future compensation and for pensions in payment and longevity expectations. For the Group’s most significant pension plans in the key countries, the discount rate used at each measurement date is set based on a high-quality corporate bond yield curve, which is derived using a bond universe sourced from reputable third-party index data providers and rating agencies, and reflects the timing, amount and currency of the future expected benefit payments for the respective plan. Our investment objective in funding the plans and our obligations in respect of them is to protect ourselves from adverse impacts of our defined benefit pension plans on key financial metrics. We seek to allocate plan assets closely to the market risk factor exposures of the pension liability to interest rates, credit spreads and inflation and, thereby, plan assets broadly reflect the underlying risk profile and currency of the pension obligations. To the extent that the factors that drive our pension liabilities move in a manner adverse to us, or that our assumptions regarding key variables prove incorrect, or that our funding of our pension liabilities does not sufficiently hedge those liabilities, we could be required to make additional contributions or be exposed to actuarial or accounting losses in respect of our pension plans. More detailed information regarding our employee benefit plans is provided in Note 33, “Employee Benefits” of the consolidated financial statements.
Supply Chain1 | 2.1%
Supply Chain - Risk 1
We utilize a variety of third parties in support of our business and operations. Services provided by third parties pose risks to us comparable to those we bear when we perform the services ourselves, and we remain ultimately responsible for the services our third parties provide. Furthermore, if a third party does not conduct business in accordance with applicable standards or our expectations, we could be exposed to material losses or regulatory action or litigation or fail to achieve the benefits we sought from the relationship.
We utilize a variety of third parties in support of our business and operations. We do so in order to focus on our core competencies and to seek improvements in costs, efficiency and effectiveness in our operations, for instance in connection with our IT modernization efforts. The nature of what we use third parties for has evolved and now includes more fundamental aspects of services and infrastructure such as Cloud computing. This represents different risks and requires more robust risk assessments, appropriate contracting and ongoing oversight commensurate with relevant risks. It has also led to an increase in regulation and regulatory scrutiny over how we manage third parties on a day-to-day basis and also assessments of the levels of resiliency needed in relation to the importance of the business services supported by the third party. Services provided by third parties pose risks to us comparable to those we bear when we perform the services ourselves, and we remain ultimately responsible for the services the third parties provide. We depend on such third parties to conduct their delivery of services in compliance with applicable laws, regulations and generally accepted business standards and in accordance with the contractual terms and service levels they have agreed with us. If the third parties do not conduct business in accordance with these standards, we may be exposed to material losses and could be subject to regulatory action or litigation as well as be exposed to reputational damage. More generally, if a third-party relationship does not meet our expectations, we could be exposed to financial risks, such as the costs and expenses associated with migration of the services to another third party and business and operational risks related to the transition, and we could fail to achieve the benefits we sought from the relationship.
Ability to Sell
Total Risks: 2/48 (4%)Below Sector Average
Competition1 | 2.1%
Competition - Risk 1
Intense competition, in our home market of Germany as well as in international markets, has and could continue to materially adversely impact our revenues and profitability.
Competition is intense in all of our primary business areas, in Germany as well as in international markets. If we are unable to respond to the competitive environment in these markets with attractive product and service offerings that are profitable for us, we may lose market share in important areas of our business or incur losses on some or all of our activities. In addition, downturns in the economies of these markets could add to the competitive pressure, for example, through increased price pressure and lower business volumes for us. There has been substantial consolidation and convergence among financial services companies. This trend has significantly increased the capital base and geographic reach of some of our competitors and has hastened the globalization of the securities and other financial services markets. As a result, we must compete with financial institutions that may be larger and better capitalized than we are and that may have a stronger position in local markets. In addition to our traditional competitors such as other universal banks and financial services firms, an emerging group of future competitors in the form of start-ups and technology firms, including those providing “fintech” services, are showing an increasing interest in banking services and products. These new competitors could increase competition in both core products, e.g., payments, basic accounts and loans and investment advisory, as well as in new products, e.g., peer to peer lending and equity crowd funding. Such firms are also potential competitors of ours in attracting and retaining talented personnel.
Sales & Marketing1 | 2.1%
Sales & Marketing - Risk 1
We may have difficulties selling companies, businesses or assets at favorable prices or at all and may experience material losses from these assets and other investments irrespective of market developments.
We seek to sell or otherwise reduce our exposure to assets that are not part of our core business or as part of our strategy to simplify and focus our business and to meet or exceed capital and leverage requirements, as well as to help us meet our return on tangible equity targets. We have already sold a substantial portion of our non-core assets, and our remaining non-core assets may be particularly difficult for us to sell as quickly as we have expected at prices we deem acceptable. Where we sell companies or businesses, we may remain exposed to certain of their losses or risks under the terms of the sale contracts, and the process of separating and selling such companies or businesses may give rise to operating risks or other losses. Unfavorable business or market conditions may make it difficult for us to sell companies, businesses or assets at favorable prices, or may preclude a sale altogether. If we cannot reduce our assets according to plan, we may not be able to achieve the capital targets set out under our strategy.
Tech & Innovation
Total Risks: 1/48 (2%)Below Sector Average
Cyber Security1 | 2.1%
Cyber Security - Risk 1
Our operational systems are subject to an increasing risk of cyber-attacks and other internet crime, which could result in material losses of client or customer information, damage our reputation and lead to regulatory penalties and financial losses.
Among the operational risks we face is the risk of breaches of the security of our or our vendors’ computer systems due to unauthorized access to networks or resources, the introduction of computer viruses or malware, or other forms of cybersecurity attacks or incidents. Such breaches could threaten the confidentiality of our or our clients’ data and the integrity of our systems. We continue to invest toward the protection of our computer systems against such breaches and toward ensuring that our vendors employ appropriate cybersecurity safeguards. To address the evolving cyber threat risk, we continue to modify and enhance our protective measures and to investigate and remediate information security vulnerabilities. These measures, however, may not be effective against the many security threats we face. The increasing frequency and sophistication of recent cyber-attacks has resulted in an elevated risk profile for many organizations around the world including Deutsche Bank, and significant attention by our management has been paid to the overall level of preparedness against such attacks. Cybersecurity is growing in importance due to factors such as the continued and increasing reliance on our technology environment. We and other financial institutions have experienced attacks on computer systems, including attacks aimed at obtaining unauthorized access to confidential company or customer information or damaging or interfering with company data, resources or business activities, or otherwise exploiting vulnerabilities in our infrastructure. We expect to continue to be the target of such attacks in the future. Although we have to date not experienced any material business impact from these attacks, we may not be able to effectively anticipate and prevent more material attacks from occurring in the future. The move across global industries to conduct business from home and away from primary office locations in response to the COVID-19 pandemic also exposes us to a greater risk of cyber-attacks, which could lead to technology failures, security breaches, unauthorized access, loss or destruction of data or unavailability of services. A successful attack could have a significant negative impact on us, including as a result of disclosure or misappropriation of client or proprietary information, damage to computer systems, an inability to access information technology (IT) systems, financial losses, remediation costs (such as for investigation and re-establishing services), increased cybersecurity costs (such as for additional personnel, technology, or third-party vendors), personal data breach notification obligations, reputational damage, customer dissatisfaction and potential regulatory or litigation exposure.
See a full breakdown of risk according to category and subcategory. The list starts with the category with the most risk. Click on subcategories to read relevant extracts from the most recent report.
FAQ
What are “Risk Factors”?
Risk factors are any situations or occurrences that could make investing in a company risky.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires that publicly traded companies disclose their most significant risk factors. This is so that potential investors can consider any risks before they make an investment.
They also offer companies protection, as a company can use risk factors as liability protection. This could happen if a company underperforms and investors take legal action as a result.
It is worth noting that smaller companies, that is those with a public float of under $75 million on the last business day, do not have to include risk factors in their 10-K and 10-Q forms, although some may choose to do so.
How do companies disclose their risk factors?
Publicly traded companies initially disclose their risk factors to the SEC through their S-1 filings as part of the IPO process.
Additionally, companies must provide a complete list of risk factors in their Annual Reports (Form 10-K) or (Form 20-F) for “foreign private issuers”.
Quarterly Reports also include a section on risk factors (Form 10-Q) where companies are only required to update any changes since the previous report.
According to the SEC, risk factors should be reported concisely, logically and in “plain English” so investors can understand them.
How can I use TipRanks risk factors in my stock research?
Use the Risk Factors tab to get data about the risk factors of any company in which you are considering investing.
You can easily see the most significant risks a company is facing. Additionally, you can find out which risk factors a company has added, removed or adjusted since its previous disclosure. You can also see how a company’s risk factors compare to others in its sector.
Without reading company reports or participating in conference calls, you would most likely not have access to this sort of information, which is usually not included in press releases or other public announcements.
A simplified analysis of risk factors is unique to TipRanks.
What are all the risk factor categories?
TipRanks has identified 6 major categories of risk factors and a number of subcategories for each. You can see how these categories are broken down in the list below.
1. Financial & Corporate
Accounting & Financial Operations - risks related to accounting loss, value of intangible assets, financial statements, value of intangible assets, financial reporting, estimates, guidance, company profitability, dividends, fluctuating results.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights – risks related to things that impact share prices and the rights of shareholders, including analyst ratings, major shareholder activity, trade volatility, liquidity of shares, anti-takeover provisions, international listing, dual listing.
Debt & Financing – risks related to debt, funding, financing and interest rates, financial investments.
Corporate Activity and Growth – risks related to restructuring, M&As, joint ventures, execution of corporate strategy, strategic alliances.
2. Legal & Regulatory
Litigation and Legal Liabilities – risks related to litigation/ lawsuits against the company.
Regulation – risks related to compliance, GDPR, and new legislation.
Environmental / Social – risks related to environmental regulation and to data privacy.
Taxation & Government Incentives – risks related to taxation and changes in government incentives.
3. Production
Costs – risks related to costs of production including commodity prices, future contracts, inventory.
Supply Chain – risks related to the company’s suppliers.
Manufacturing – risks related to the company’s manufacturing process including product quality and product recalls.
Human Capital – risks related to recruitment, training and retention of key employees, employee relationships & unions labor disputes, pension, and post retirement benefits, medical, health and welfare benefits, employee misconduct, employee litigation.
4. Technology & Innovation
Innovation / R&D – risks related to innovation and new product development.
Technology – risks related to the company’s reliance on technology.
Cyber Security – risks related to securing the company’s digital assets and from cyber attacks.
Trade Secrets & Patents – risks related to the company’s ability to protect its intellectual property and to infringement claims against the company as well as piracy and unlicensed copying.
5. Ability to Sell
Demand – risks related to the demand of the company’s goods and services including seasonality, reliance on key customers.
Competition – risks related to the company’s competition including substitutes.
Sales & Marketing – risks related to sales, marketing, and distribution channels, pricing, and market penetration.
Brand & Reputation – risks related to the company’s brand and reputation.
6. Macro & Political
Economy & Political Environment – risks related to changes in economic and political conditions.
Natural and Human Disruptions – risks related to catastrophes, floods, storms, terror, earthquakes, coronavirus pandemic/COVID-19.
International Operations – risks related to the global nature of the company.
Capital Markets – risks related to exchange rates and trade, cryptocurrency.