Centene (CNC) Risk Factors

The enactment of the ACA in March 2010 transformed the U.S. healthcare delivery system through a series of complex initiatives; however, the ACA has faced, and continues to face, administrative, judicial and legislative challenges to repeal or change certain of its significant provisions. Changes to portions or the entirety of the ACA, as well as judicial interpretations in response to constitutional and other legal challenges, as well as the uncertainty generated by such actual or potential challenges, could materially and adversely affect our business and financial condition, results of operations or cash flows. The ultimate content, timing or effect of any potential future legislation or litigation and the outcome of other lawsuits cannot be predicted. Among the most significant of the ACA's provisions was the establishment of the Health Insurance Marketplace for individuals and small employers to purchase health insurance coverage that included a minimum level of benefits and restrictions on coverage limitations and premium rates, as well as the expansion of Medicaid coverage to all individuals under age 65 with incomes up to 138% of the federal poverty level beginning January 1, 2014, subject to each state's election. The HHS additionally indicated that it would consider a limited number of premium assistance demonstration proposals from states that want to privatize Medicaid expansion. Several states in which we operate have obtained Section 1115 waivers to implement the ACA's Medicaid expansion in ways that extend beyond the flexibility provided by the federal law, with additional states pursuing Section 1115 waivers regarding eligibility criteria, benefits, and cost-sharing, and provider payments across their Medicaid programs. Litigation challenging Section 1115 waiver activity for both new and previously approved waivers is expected to continue both through administrative actions and the courts. The enhanced eligibility for the advance premium tax credit for Marketplace members that was extended by the Inflation Reduction Act expires December 31, 2025. If this credit is not renewed or extended, or if eligibility for this credit is limited, it could materially adversely impact our Marketplace membership. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Labor issued a final rule on June 19, 2018, which expanded flexibility regarding the regulation and formation of association health plans (AHPs) provided by small employer groups and associations. On June 13, 2019, the HHS, the U.S. Department of Labor and the U.S. Treasury issued a final rule allowing employers of all sizes that do not offer a group coverage plan to fund a new kind of health reimbursement arrangement (HRA), known as an individual coverage HRA (ICHRA). Beginning January 1, 2020, employees became able to use employer-funded ICHRAs to buy individual-market insurance, including insurance purchased on the public exchanges formed under the ACA. It remains uncertain whether or when the current or future administrations will propose changes to restrict these insurance plan options that are not required to meet ACA requirements, and what the impact of such potential changes may be. These changes and other potential changes involving the functioning of the Health Insurance Marketplace as a result of additional new state and federal legislation, regulation, executive action or litigation, including those related to extending enrollment periods, increasing eligibility in the program design, changing the eligibility and amount of the advanced premium tax credit and expanding navigator services, could impact our business and results of operations adversely or in other ways that we do not currently anticipate.

The majority of our revenues come from government subsidized healthcare programs including Medicaid, Medicare, TRICARE, CHIP, LTSS, ABD, Foster Care and Health Insurance Marketplace premiums. Changes in these programs could change the number of persons enrolled in or eligible for these programs and increase our administrative and healthcare costs under these programs. For example, due to the declaration of the end of the public health emergency (PHE) and the subsequent expiration of the eligibility determination waivers, we expect the resumption of the Medicaid eligibility redeterminations to significantly reduce our membership in our Medicaid programs. We do not expect to fully offset the loss of this membership by increased enrollment in our Health Insurance Marketplace products. States may decide to reduce reimbursement or reduce benefits in order for states to afford to maintain or increase eligibility levels. If any state in which we operate were to decrease premiums paid to us or pay us less than the amount necessary to keep pace with our cost trends, it could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows. Under most of these programs, the base premium rate paid for each program differs, depending on a combination of factors such as defined upper payment limits, a member's health status, age, gender, county or region and benefit mix. Since Medicaid was created in 1965, the federal government and states have shared the costs for this program, with the federal government share currently averaging approximately 60%. We are therefore exposed to risks associated with federal and state government contracting or participating in programs involving a government payor, including but not limited to the general ability of the federal and/or state governments to terminate or modify contracts with them, in whole or in part, without prior notice, for convenience or for default based on performance; potential regulatory or legislative action that may materially modify amounts owed; our dependence upon Congressional or legislative appropriation and allotment of funds and the impact that delays in government payments could have on our operating cash flow and liquidity; responses to pandemics, resurgences and new emergent diseases and other regulatory, legislative or judicial actions that may have an impact on the operations of government subsidized healthcare programs including ongoing litigation involving the ACA. For example, future levels of funding and premium rates may be affected by continuing government efforts to contain healthcare costs and may further be affected by state and federal budgetary constraints. Governments periodically consider reducing or reallocating the amount of money they spend for Medicaid, Medicare, TRICARE, CHIP, LTSS, ABD and Foster Care. Additionally, as a result of the CMS Medicare Advantage 2024 rate decrease, combined with our quality scores, we have established a premium deficiency reserve in connection with the 2024 Medicare Advantage business as of December 31, 2023. Furthermore, Medicare remains subject to the automatic spending reductions imposed by the Budget Control Act of 2011 and the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (sequestration), subject to a 2% cap, which was extended by the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 through 2029, which was reinstated on July 1, 2022, after a temporary suspension due to the COVID pandemic. The IRA enacts significant changes to the Medicare Part D program beginning on January 1, 2025. These changes create additional uncertainty for 2025 Medicare Part D bids, including their profitability and the competitive market landscape. If our future Part D premium bids are not profitable or below the CMS benchmarks or competitors price their products with significantly lower premiums, membership, revenue and profitability of this product could be materially reduced, which in turn could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial conditions. In addition, proposed CMS regulations may require beneficiaries dually enrolled in Medicare and Medicaid to receive integrated care through Medicare Advantage D-SNPs, which may restrict our product offerings in some geographic service areas. In addition, reductions in defense spending could have an adverse impact on certain government programs in which we currently participate by, among other things, terminating or materially changing such programs, or by decreasing or delaying payments made under such programs. Adverse economic conditions may put pressures on state budgets as tax and other state revenues decrease while the population that is eligible to participate in these programs remains steady or increases, creating more need for funding. We anticipate this will require government agencies to find funding alternatives, which may result in reductions in funding for programs, contraction of covered benefits and limited or no premium rate increases or premium rate decreases. A reduction (or less than expected increase), a protracted delay or a change in allocation methodology in government funding for these programs, as well as termination of one or more contracts for the convenience of the government, may materially and adversely affect our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows. Also, if legislation increasing the federal debt ceiling is not enacted and the debt ceiling is reached, the federal government may stop or delay making payments on its obligations. In addition, if another federal government shutdown were to occur for a prolonged period of time, federal government payment obligations, including its obligations under Medicaid, Medicare, TRICARE, CHIP, LTSS, ABD, Foster Care and the Health Insurance Marketplace, may be delayed. Similarly, if state government shutdowns were to occur, state payment obligations may be delayed. If the federal or state governments fail to make payments under these programs on a timely basis, our business could suffer, and our financial condition, results of operations or cash flows may be materially affected. Payments from government payors may be delayed in the future, which, if extended for any significant period of time, could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition, cash flows or liquidity. In addition, delays in obtaining, or failure to obtain or maintain, governmental approvals, or moratoria imposed by regulatory authorities, could adversely affect our revenues or membership, increase costs or adversely affect our ability to bring new products to market as forecasted. Other changes to our government programs could affect our willingness or ability to participate in any of these programs or otherwise have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations.