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Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT)
NASDAQ:CLMT
RESEARCH TOOLSreports
Risk Overview Q4, 2024
Risk Distribution
39% Finance & Corporate
30% Production
14% Legal & Regulatory
9% Ability to Sell
7% Tech & Innovation
2% Macro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
This chart displays the stock's most recent risk distribution according to category. TipRanks has identified 6 major categories: Finance & corporate, legal & regulatory, macro & political, production, tech & innovation, and ability to sell.
Risk Change Over Time
S&P500 Average
Sector Average
Risks removed
Risks added
Risks changed
Calumet Specialty Products Risk Factors
New Risk (0)
Risk Changed (0)
Risk Removed (0)
No changes from previous report
The chart shows the number of risks a company has disclosed. You can compare this to the sector average or S&P 500 average.
The quarters shown in the chart are according to the calendar year (January to December). Businesses set their own financial calendar, known as a fiscal year. For example, Walmart ends their financial year at the end of January to accommodate the holiday season.
The quarters shown in the chart are according to the calendar year (January to December). Businesses set their own financial calendar, known as a fiscal year. For example, Walmart ends their financial year at the end of January to accommodate the holiday season.
Risk Highlights Q4, 2024
Main Risk Category
Finance & Corporate
With 17 Risks
Finance & Corporate
With 17 Risks
Number of Disclosed Risks
44
-21
From last reportS&P 500 Average: 31
44
-21
From last reportS&P 500 Average: 31
Recent Changes
8Risks added
29Risks removed
6Risks changed
Since Dec 2024
8Risks added
29Risks removed
6Risks changed
Since Dec 2024
Number of Risk Changed
6
+6
From last reportS&P 500 Average: 3
6
+6
From last reportS&P 500 Average: 3
See the risk highlights of Calumet Specialty Products in the last period.
Risk Word Cloud
The most common phrases about risk factors from the most recent report. Larger texts indicate more widely used phrases.
Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 44
Finance & Corporate
Total Risks: 17/44 (39%)Above Sector Average
Share Price & Shareholder Rights5 | 11.4%
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 1
Transactions between the Company and MRL present possible conflicts of interest that could have an adverse effect on the Company if they are not managed appropriately.Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 2
The price of our common stock may experience volatility.Added
The price of our common stock may be volatile. In addition to the risk factors described above, some of the factors that could affect the price of our common stock are quarterly increases or decreases in revenue or earnings, changes in revenue or earnings estimates by the investment community, sales of our common stock by significant stockholders, short-selling of our common stock by investors, issuance of a significant number of shares to raise additional capital to fund our operations, changes in market valuations of similar companies and speculation in the press or investment community about our financial condition or results of operations. General market conditions and U.S. or international economic factors and political events unrelated to the performance of us may also affect our stock price. For these reasons, investors should not rely on recent trends in the price of our common stock to predict the future price of our common stock or our future financial results.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 3
Our amended and restated certificate of incorporation and amended and restated bylaws contain provisions that may make it more difficult for a third party to acquire control of us, even if a change in control would result in the purchase of your shares of common stock at a premium to the market price or would otherwise be beneficial to you.Added
There are provisions in our amended and restated certificate of incorporation and amended and restated bylaws that may make it more difficult for a third party to acquire control of us, even if a change in control would result in the purchase of your shares of common stock at a premium to the market price or would otherwise be beneficial to you. For example, our amended and restated certificate of incorporation authorizes our board of directors to issue preferred stock without stockholder approval. If our board of directors elects to issue preferred stock, it could be more difficult for a third party to acquire us.
In addition, provisions of our amended and restated certificate of incorporation and amended and restated bylaws, including a classified board of directors, so that only approximately one-third of our directors are elected each year, and limitations on stockholder actions by written consent and on stockholder proposals and director nominations at meetings of stockholders, could make it more difficult for a third party to acquire control of us. Certain provisions of the Delaware General Corporation Law ("DGCL") may also discourage takeover attempts that have not been approved by our board of directors.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 4
Our amended and restated certificate of incorporation designates the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware as the sole and exclusive forum for certain types of actions and proceedings that may be initiated by our stockholders, and the federal district courts as the exclusive forum for Securities Act claims, which could limit stockholders' ability to obtain what such stockholders believe to be a favorable judicial forum for disputes with us or our directors, officers, employees or agents.Added
Our amended and restated certificate of incorporation provides that, unless we select or consent in writing to the selection of an alternative forum, all complaints asserting any internal corporate claims (defined as claims, including claims in the right of the Company: (i) that are based upon a violation of a duty by a current or former director, officer, employee or stockholder in such capacity; or (ii) as to which the DGCL confers jurisdiction upon the Court of Chancery), to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, and subject to applicable jurisdictional requirements, shall be the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware (or, if the Court of Chancery does not have, or declines to accept, jurisdiction, another state court or a federal court located within the State of Delaware). Further, unless we select or consent to the selection of an alternative forum, the federal district courts of the United States will be the exclusive forum for the resolution of any complaint asserting a cause of action arising under the Securities Act. Our choice of forum provision does not apply to suits brought to enforce any liability or duty created by the Exchange Act and investors cannot waive compliance with the federal securities laws and the rules and regulations thereunder. Any person or entity purchasing or otherwise acquiring any interest in shares of our common stock will be deemed to have notice of, and consented to, the provisions of our amended and restated certificate of incorporation described in the preceding sentence. This choice of forum provision may limit a stockholder's ability to bring a claim in a judicial forum that it finds favorable for disputes with us or our directors, officers, employees or agents, which may discourage such lawsuits against us and such persons. Alternatively, if a court were to find these provisions of our amended and restated certificate of incorporation inapplicable to, or unenforceable in respect of, one or more of the specified types of actions or proceedings, we may incur additional costs associated with resolving such matters in other jurisdictions, which could adversely affect our business, financial condition or results of operations.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 5
The value of our common stock may be diluted by future equity issuances (including upon the exercise of the outstanding warrants), and shares eligible for future sale may have adverse effects on our share price.Added
We cannot predict the effect of future sales of shares or the availability of shares for future sales, on the market price of or the liquidity of the market for the shares of our common stock. Sales of substantial amounts of shares of our common stock, or the perception that such sales could occur, could adversely affect the prevailing market price of the shares of our common stock. Such sales, or the possibility of such sales, could also make it difficult for us to sell equity securities in the future at a time and at a price that we deem appropriate.
Our authorized capital stock consists of 700,000,000 shares of common stock and 100,000,000 shares of preferred stock, a significant portion of which is unissued. We may need to raise a significant amount of capital to pay down outstanding indebtedness, including principal, interest and fees due under our revolving credit facility, the senior notes, the DOE Facility and our other indebtedness and may raise such capital through the issuance of newly issued common stock or preferred stock. Additionally, outstanding warrants to purchase an aggregate of 2,000,000 shares of common stock are exercisable through July 10, 2027. Such issuance and sale of equity could be dilutive to the interests of existing stockholders and increase the number of shares eligible for resale in the public market.
Additionally, as of February 27, 2025, The Heritage Group and certain of their affiliates beneficially owned approximately 25.5% of the outstanding shares of our common stock (prior to any potential dilution resulting from exercise of the warrants). The Sponsor Parties have registration rights with respect to the shares of common stock they receive pursuant to the Conversion. Pursuant to the Registration Rights Agreement, we have filed a shelf registration statement with respect to the registrable securities under the Registration Rights Agreement. No more than two times in any 12-month period, the Sponsor Parties may request to sell all or any portion of their registrable securities in an underwritten offering so long as the total offering price is reasonably expected to exceed $25 million. We also agreed to provide customary "piggyback" registration rights to the Sponsor Parties. The Registration Rights Agreement also provides that we will pay certain expenses relating to such registrations and indemnify the stockholders against certain liabilities. The Sponsor Parties' shares of common stock is currently eligible for sale into the market without volume limitations. Because of the substantial size of the Sponsor Parties' holdings, the sale of a significant portion of these shares, or a perception in the market that such a sale is likely, could have a significant impact on the market price of such shares.
Accounting & Financial Operations2 | 4.5%
Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 1
We do not expect to pay dividends on our common stock for the foreseeable future.Added
Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 2
An impairment of our long-lived assets or goodwill could reduce our earnings or negatively impact our financial condition and results of operations.We continually monitor our business, the business environment and the performance of our operations to determine if an event has occurred that indicates that a long-lived asset or goodwill may be impaired. If an event occurs, which is a determination that involves judgment, we may be required to utilize cash flow projections to assess our ability to recover the carrying value based on the ability to generate future cash flows. Our long-lived assets and goodwill impairment analyses are sensitive to changes in key assumptions used in our analysis, such as expected future cash flows, the degree of volatility in equity and debt markets and our stock price. If the assumptions used in our analysis are not realized, it is possible a material impairment charge may need to be recorded in the future.
We cannot accurately predict the amount and timing of any impairment of long-lived assets or goodwill. Further, as we continue to develop our strategy regarding certain of our non-core assets, we will need to continue to evaluate the carrying value of those assets. Any additional impairment charges that we may take in the future could be material to our results of operations and financial condition.
Debt & Financing7 | 15.9%
Debt & Financing - Risk 1
Our hedging activities may not be effective in reducing our exposure to commodity price risk and may reduce our earnings, profitability and cash flows.Debt & Financing - Risk 2
We have a substantial amount of indebtedness, which may adversely affect our cash flow and our ability to operate our business.We had approximately $2.1 billion of outstanding indebtedness as of December 31, 2024, including $441.8 million of indebtedness at MRL, an unrestricted subsidiary of the Company and for which the parent Company is not a guarantor. We have availability for borrowings of approximately $116.1 million under our senior secured revolving credit facility. We have the ability to incur additional debt, including the ability to borrow up to an aggregate principal amount of $650.0 million at any time, subject to borrowing base limitations, under our revolving credit facility. A tranche of the revolving credit facility includes a $50.0 million senior secured first loaned in and last to be repaid out ("FILO") revolving credit facility. In addition, as of February 28, 2025, MRL had approximately $782 million of outstanding indebtedness under a loan guarantee agreement (the "DOE Facility") with the U.S. Department of Energy ("DOE") and MRL has the ability to draw additional tranches of up to $658 million from 2025 through the anticipated completion of this project in 2028. Calumet is not a guarantor of MRL indebtedness. Our substantial indebtedness could adversely affect our results of operations, business and financial condition, and our ability to meet our debt obligations. In addition, our level of indebtedness could have important consequences to us, including the following:
- our ability to obtain additional financing, if necessary, for working capital, capital expenditures, acquisitions or other purposes may be impaired, or such financing may not be available on favorable terms;- covenants contained in our existing and future credit and debt arrangements will require us to meet financial tests that may affect our flexibility in planning for and reacting to changes in our business, including possible acquisition opportunities;- we will need a substantial portion of our cash flow to make principal and interest payments on our indebtedness, reducing the funds that would otherwise be available for operations, future business opportunities and payments of our debt obligations;- our ability to execute our acquisition and divestiture strategy; and - our debt level will make us more vulnerable than our competitors with less debt to competitive pressures or a downturn in our business or the economy in general.
Any of these factors could result in a material adverse effect on our business, financial conditions, results of operations, business prospects and ability to satisfy our obligations under our senior notes, revolving credit facility and the DOE Facility.
Our ability to service our indebtedness will depend upon, among other things, our future financial and operating performance, which will be affected by prevailing economic conditions and financial, business, regulatory and other factors, some of which are beyond our control. If our operating results are not sufficient to service our current or future indebtedness, we will be forced to take actions such as reducing or delaying our business activities, acquisitions, investments and/or capital expenditures, selling assets, restructuring or refinancing our indebtedness, or seeking additional equity capital or bankruptcy protection. We may not be able to effect any of these remedies on satisfactory terms, or at all. Please read Part II, Item 7 "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Liquidity and Capital Resources - Debt and Credit Facilities" for additional information regarding our indebtedness.
Debt & Financing - Risk 3
Our financing arrangements contain operating and financial provisions that restrict our business and financing activities.The operating and financial restrictions and covenants in our financing arrangements, including our revolving credit facility, DOE Facility, indentures governing each series of our outstanding senior notes and master derivative contracts,do currently restrict, and any future financing agreements could restrict, our ability to finance future operations or capital needs or to engage, expand or pursue our business activities, including restrictions on our ability to, among other things:
- sell assets, including equity interests in our subsidiaries;- redeem or repurchase any subordinated debt and, in the case of the 9.25% Senior Secured First Lien Notes due 2029 (the "2029 Secured Notes"), our unsecured notes;- incur or guarantee additional indebtedness or issue preferred stock;- create or incur certain liens;- make certain acquisitions and investments;- redeem or repay other debt or make other restricted payments;- enter into transactions with affiliates;- enter into agreements that restrict distributions or other payments from our restricted subsidiaries to us;- create unrestricted subsidiaries;- enter into sale and leaseback transactions;- enter into a merger, consolidation or transfer or sale of assets, including equity interests in our subsidiaries; and - engage in certain business activities.
Our revolving credit facility also contains a springing financial covenant which provides that only if our availability to borrow loans under the revolving credit facility falls below the sum of (a) the greater of (i) (x) 15% of the borrowing base then in effect at any time that the refinery asset borrowing base component is greater than $0 and (y) 10% of the borrowing base then in effect at any time that the refinery asset borrowing base component is equal to $0 and (ii) $45.0 million (which amount is subject to certain increases) plus (b) the amount of FILO Loans (as defined in the Credit Agreement) outstanding, then we will be required to maintain as of the end of each fiscal quarter a Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio (as defined in the Credit Agreement) of at least 1.0 to 1.0. As of December 31, 2024, the Company was in compliance with all covenants under the revolving credit facility.
Our existing indebtedness imposes, and any future indebtedness may impose, a number of covenants on us regarding collateral maintenance and insurance maintenance. As a result of these covenants and restrictions, we will be limited in the manner in which we conduct our business, and we may be unable to engage in favorable business activities or finance future operations or capital needs.
Our ability to comply with the covenants and restrictions in our revolving credit facility, the DOE Facility, our secured hedge agreements and the indentures governing our senior notes may be affected by events beyond our control.
If market or other economic conditions deteriorate, our ability to comply with these covenants and restrictions may be impaired. A failure to comply with the covenants, ratios or tests in our revolving credit facility, the DOE Facility, our secured hedge agreements, the indentures governing our senior notes or any future indebtedness could result in an event of default under our revolving credit facility, our secured hedge agreements, the indentures governing our senior notes or our future indebtedness, which, if not cured or waived, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. Among other things, in the event of any default on our indebtedness, our debt holders and lenders:
- will not be required to lend any additional amounts to us;- could elect to declare all borrowings outstanding, together with accrued and unpaid interest and fees, to be due and payable;- could elect to require that all obligations accrue interest at the default rate, if such rate has not already been imposed;- may have the ability to require us to apply all of our available cash to repay these borrowings;- may prevent us from making debt service payments under our other agreements, any of which could result in an event of default under our notes; or - in the event of a default by us or our restricted subsidiaries, could foreclose on the collateral pledged pursuant to the terms of the revolving credit facility or the indenture and security documents governing the 2029 Secured Notes, respectively.
If our existing indebtedness were to be accelerated, there can be no assurance that we would have, or be able to obtain, sufficient funds to repay such indebtedness in full. Even if new financing were available, it may be on terms that are less attractive to us than our then existing credit facility or it may not be on terms that are acceptable to us. In addition, our obligations under our revolving credit facility are secured by a first priority lien on our accounts receivable, inventory and substantially all of our cash; our obligations under our secured hedge agreements and the BP Purchase Agreement are secured by a lien on certain of our real property, plant and equipment, fixtures, intellectual property, certain financial assets, certain investment property, commercial tort claims, chattel paper, documents, instruments and proceeds of the forgoing (including proceeds of hedge agreements); and the 2029 Secured Notes are secured by a first-priority lien on all of the fixed assets that secure our obligations under our secured hedge agreements, and if we are unable to repay our indebtedness under the revolving credit facility, the 2029 Secured Notes or satisfy the payment obligations under our secured hedge agreements or the payment obligations under the BP Purchase Agreement or obtain waivers of such defaults, then the lenders under our revolving credit facility, the counterparties to such agreements, and the holders of the 2029 Secured Notes could seek to foreclose on these assets. Please read Part II, Item 7 "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Liquidity and Capital Resources - Debt and Credit Facilities," "- Short-Term Liquidity," "- Long-Term Financing" and "- Master Derivative Contracts and Collateral Trust Agreement" for additional information regarding our long-term debt.
Debt & Financing - Risk 4
An increase in interest rates will cause our debt service obligations to increase.Borrowings under our revolving credit facility bears interest at a rate based on the daily Secured Overnight Financing Rate ("SOFR"). As of December 31, 2024, we had $286.6 million outstanding borrowings under our revolving credit facility and $45.4 million in standby letters of credit were issued under our revolving credit facility. The foregoing interest rates are subject to adjustment based on fluctuations in daily SOFR or the prime rate, as applicable. An increase in the interest rates associated with our floating-rate debt would increase our debt service costs and affect our results of operations. In addition, an increase in interest rates could adversely affect our future ability to obtain financing or materially increase the cost of any additional financing.
Debt & Financing - Risk 5
We make capital expenditures in our facilities to maintain their reliability and efficiency. If we are unable to complete capital projects at their expected costs and/or in a timely manner, or if the market conditions assumed in our project economics deteriorate, results of operations or cash flows could be adversely affected.Delays or cost increases related to the engineering, procurement and construction of new facilities, expansions (such as the MaxSAFTM project), or improvements and repairs to our existing facilities and equipment, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations or our ability to make payments on our debt obligations. Such delays or cost increases may arise as a result of unpredictable factors in the marketplace, many of which are beyond our control, including:
- denial or delay in obtaining regulatory approvals and/or permits;- changes in government regulations, including environmental and safety regulations;- unplanned increases in the cost of equipment, materials or labor;- disruptions in transportation of equipment and materials;- severe adverse weather conditions, natural disasters or other events (such as equipment malfunctions, explosions, fires or spills) affecting our facilities, or those of our vendors and suppliers;- shortages of sufficiently skilled labor, or labor disagreements resulting in unplanned work stoppages;- market-related increases in a project's debt or equity financing costs; and/or - nonperformance or declarations of force majeure by, or disputes with, our vendors, suppliers, contractors or sub-contractors.
Equipment, even if properly maintained, may require significant capital expenditures and expenses to keep it operating at optimum efficiency.
Any one or more of these occurrences noted above could have a significant impact on our business or subject us to significant cost overruns. If we were unable to make up the delays or to recover the related costs, or if market conditions change, we may not realize the anticipated benefits of our capital projects and it could materially and adversely affect our financial position, results of operations or cash flows and, as a result, our ability to make payments of our debt obligations.
Debt & Financing - Risk 6
Montana Renewables balance sheet includes a Loan Guarantee Agreement (the "LGA") with the US Government.Added
On January 10, 2025, Montana Renewable and the U.S. Department of Energy entered into a Loan Guarantee Agreement whereby Montana Renewables may borrow from the Federal Finance Bank of the US Treasury, and DOE will guarantee repayment of that indebtedness (the "DOE Loan"). Calumet is not a guarantor. On January 28, 2025 MRL drew a first advance of approximately $782 million at a 15-year tenor and an interest rate of 4.884%. The LGA gives DOE the right to approve certain activities which may limit MRL freedom of action or conflict with stockholder interests. Should MRL default under the LGA the repayment of MRL indebtedness would be accelerated.
Debt & Financing - Risk 7
A change of control could result in us facing substantial repayment obligations under our revolving credit facility, our senior notes, our secured hedge agreements, and our Supply and Offtake Agreement.Changed
There is no restriction in our amended and restated certificate of incorporation or bylaws on the ability of us to enter into a transaction which would trigger the change of control provisions of our revolving credit facility agreement, the indentures governing our senior notes, our Collateral Trust Agreement, and our Supply and Offtake Agreement. Certain events relating to a change of control of us and our operating subsidiaries would constitute an event of default under our revolving credit facility, our Collateral Trust Agreement and our Supply and Offtake Agreement. In addition, an event of default under our revolving credit facility would likely constitute an event of default under the indentures governing our senior notes, our master derivatives contracts and the BP Purchase Agreement. As a result, upon a change of control event, we may be required to immediately repay the outstanding principal, any accrued interest on and any other amounts owed by us under our revolving credit facility, the senior notes and the Supply and Offtake Agreement and the outstanding payment obligations under our master derivatives contracts and the BP Purchase Agreement. The source of funds for these repayments would be our available cash or cash generated from other sources and there can be no assurance that we would have, or be able to obtain, sufficient funds to repay such indebtedness and other payment obligations in full.
In addition, our obligations under our revolving credit facility are secured by a first-priority lien on our accounts receivable, inventory and substantially all of our cash; our 2029 Secured Notes are secured by a first-priority lien on all of the fixed assets that secure our obligations under our secured hedge agreements; and our obligations under our master derivatives contracts and the BP Purchase Agreement are secured by a first-priority lien on our and our subsidiaries' real property, plant and equipment, fixtures, intellectual property, certain financial assets, certain investment property, commercial tort claims, chattel paper, documents, instruments and proceeds of the forgoing (including proceeds of hedge agreements). If we are unable to repay our indebtedness under the revolving credit facility, the 2029 Secured Notes, or satisfy the payment obligations under our master derivative contracts or the payment obligations under the BP Purchase Agreement or obtain waivers of such defaults, then the lenders under our revolving credit facility, the holders of our 2029 Secured Notes, the derivative counterparties under our master derivative contracts and BP, respectively, would have the right to foreclose on those assets, which would have a material adverse effect on us.
Capital Projects and Future Growth
Corporate Activity and Growth3 | 6.8%
Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 1
Our arrangement with J. Aron exposes us to J. Aron-related credit and performance risk as well as potential refinancing risks.Changed
Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 2
We have a holding company structure in which our subsidiaries conduct our operations and own our operating assets and our ability to make payments of our debt obligations depends on the performance of our subsidiaries and their ability to distribute funds to us.Changed
We are a holding company, and our subsidiaries conduct all of our operations and own all of our operating assets. We have no significant assets other than the equity interests in our subsidiaries. As a result, our ability to make payments of debt obligations depends on the performance of our subsidiaries and their ability to distribute funds to us. The ability of our subsidiaries to make distributions to us is restricted by our revolving credit facility and the indentures governing our senior notes and may be restricted by, among other things, applicable state laws and other laws and regulations. If we are unable to obtain the funds necessary to make payments of debt obligations, we may be required to adopt one or more alternatives, such as a refinancing our indebtedness or incurring borrowings under our revolving credit facility. We cannot assure stockholders that we would be able to refinance our indebtedness or that the terms on which we could refinance our indebtedness would be favorable.
Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 3
From time to time, we may seek to divest portions of our business, which could materially affect our results of operations and result in disruption to other parts of the business.We may dispose of portions of our current business or assets, based on a variety of factors and strategic considerations, consistent with our strategy of preserving liquidity and streamlining our business to better focus on the advancement of our core business. We expect that any potential divestitures of assets will also provide us with cash to reinvest in our business and repay indebtedness. These dispositions, together with any other future dispositions we make, may involve risks and uncertainties, including disruption to other parts of our business, potential loss of employees, customers or revenue, exposure to unanticipated liabilities or result in ongoing obligations and liabilities to us following any such divestiture. In addition, any such divestitures may not yield the targeted improvements in our business. Any of the foregoing could adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations or cash flows and, as a result, our ability to make payments of our debt obligations.
Environmental and Regulatory Matters
Production
Total Risks: 13/44 (30%)Above Sector Average
Manufacturing1 | 2.3%
Manufacturing - Risk 1
Montana Renewables is subject to numerous operating risks, which could materially adversely impact our results of operations and financial conditions.Employment / Personnel2 | 4.5%
Employment / Personnel - Risk 1
We depend on key personnel for the success of our business and the loss of those persons could adversely affect our business and our ability to make payments of our debt obligations.Employment / Personnel - Risk 2
We depend on unionized labor for the operation of many of our facilities. Any work stoppages or labor disturbances at these facilities could disrupt our business and negatively impact our financial condition and results of operations.Substantially all of our operating personnel at our Shreveport, Great Falls, Princeton, Cotton Valley, Karns City, Dickinson and Missouri facilities are employed under collective bargaining agreements. If we are unable to renegotiate these agreements as they expire, any work stoppages or other labor disturbances at these facilities could have an adverse effect on our business and impact our ability to make payments of our debt obligations. In addition, employees who are not currently represented by labor unions may seek union representation in the future, and any renegotiation of current collective bargaining agreements may result in terms that are less favorable to us. Furthermore, our actions or responses to any such negotiations, labor disputes, strikes or work stoppages could negatively impact how we are perceived and the impact on our reputation could have adverse effects on our business.
Supply Chain2 | 4.5%
Supply Chain - Risk 1
We depend on certain third-party pipelines for transportation of feedstocks and products, and if these pipelines become unavailable to us, our revenues and cash available for payment of our debt obligations could decline.Supply Chain - Risk 2
Montana Renewables depends on the Company to provide MRL with services necessary to operate its business. If the Company were unable or unwilling to provide these services, it would result in a disruption in MRL's business that could have an adverse effect on its financial position, financial results and cash flow.MRL does not directly employ directors, officers or employees. Pursuant to the master services agreement (the "MSA") with a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, all of MRL's executive management personnel are employees of the Company, and MRL uses a significant number of the Company's employees to operate the Montana Renewables facility and provide MRL with general and administrative services as well as services related to information technology, cybersecurity and data privacy. The failure of the Company to provide accurate and timely service may adversely impact MRL's business operations. In addition, if the Company were to become unable or unwilling to provide such services, MRL would need to develop these services internally or arrange for the services from another service provider, which may not be possible and which could take time and cause MRL to experience significant interruptions or incur additional costs. Developing the capabilities internally or by retaining another service provider could have an adverse effect on MRL's business, and the services, when developed or retained, may not be of the same quality as provided to us by the Company. For example, if MRL is not able to obtain adequate information technology and cybersecurity services, MRL may be at a higher risk for cyberattacks and other interruptions or failures. Additionally, if the MSA were to terminate, MRL would lose its key personnel.
Costs8 | 18.2%
Costs - Risk 1
Increases to the cost of transportation services or equipment related to our feedstock materials and renewable transportation fuels could materially and adversely affect our sales revenues and cost of operations.Costs - Risk 2
Our method of valuing inventory may result in decreases in net income.The nature of our business requires us to maintain substantial quantities of inventories. Some of our inventory is commodity based, providing us little control over the changing market value of these inventories. Because our inventory is valued at the lower of cost or market ("LCM") value, if the market value of our inventory were to decline to an amount less than our cost, we would record a write-down of inventory and a non-cash charge to cost of sales. In periods of decreasing crude oil or refined product prices, our inventory valuation methodology has resulted in and may in the future result in decreases in net income.
Costs - Risk 3
Decreases in the price of inventory and products may lead to a reduction in the borrowing base under our revolving credit facility and our ability to issue letters of credit or the requirement that we post substantial amounts of cash collateral for derivative instruments, which could adversely affect our liquidity, financial condition and our ability to make payments on our debt obligations.We rely on borrowings and letters of credit under our revolving credit facility to purchase feedstocks for our facilities, and to lease certain precious metals for use in our operations. The borrowing base under our revolving credit facility is determined weekly or monthly depending upon availability levels or the existence of a default or event of default. Reductions in the value of our inventories as a result of lower crude oil prices could result in a reduction in our borrowing base, which would reduce the amount of financial resources available to meet our operating requirements. If, under certain circumstances, our available capacity under our revolving credit facility falls below certain threshold amounts, or a default or event of default exists, then our cash balances in a dominion account established with the administrative agent will be applied on a daily basis to our outstanding obligations under our revolving credit facility. In addition, decreases in the price of crude oil or increases in crack spreads may require us to post substantial amounts of cash collateral to our hedging counterparties in order to maintain our derivative instruments. If, due to our financial condition or other reasons, the borrowing base under our revolving credit facility decreases, we are limited in our ability to issue letters of credit or we are required to post substantial amounts of cash collateral to our hedging counterparties, our liquidity, financial condition and our ability to make payments on our debt obligations could be materially and adversely affected. Please read Part II, Item 7 "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Liquidity and Capital Resources - Debt and Credit Facilities" for additional information.
Costs - Risk 4
We may incur significant environmental remediation costs and liabilities in the operation of our refineries, facilities, terminals and related facilities.The operation of our refineries, blending and packaging sites, terminals, and related facilities subject us to the risk of incurring significant environmental remediation costs and liabilities due to our handling of petroleum hydrocarbons and wastes or hazardous substances or wastes, because of air emissions and water discharges related to our operations and activities, and as a result of historical operations and waste disposal practices at our facilities or in connection with our activities, some of which may have been conducted by prior owners or operators. We could incur significant remedial costs in the cleanup of any petroleum hydrocarbons or wastes or hazardous substances or wastes that may have been released on, under or from the properties owned or operated by us. While we believe we have adequately reserved for these possibilities, such costs and liabilities are difficult to predict and could exceed the amount reserved.
Some environmental laws may impose joint and several, strict liability for releases of petroleum hydrocarbons and wastes or hazardous substances or wastes, which means in some situations, we could be exposed to liability as a result of our conduct that was lawful at the time it occurred or the conduct of, or conditions caused by, prior operators or other third parties. Private parties, including the owners of properties adjacent to our operations and facilities where our petroleum hydrocarbons or wastes or hazardous substances or wastes are taken for reclamation or disposal, may also have the right to pursue legal actions to enforce compliance as well as to seek damages for non-compliance with environmental laws and regulations or for personal injury or property damage. We may not be able to recover some or any of these costs from insurance or other sources of indemnity. To the extent that the costs associated with meeting any or all of these requirements are significant and not adequately secured or indemnified for, there could be a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations or cash flows and, as a result, our ability to make payments of our debt obligations.
Costs - Risk 5
The price volatility of utility services may result in decreases in our earnings, profitability and cash flows.The volatility in costs of natural gas and other utility services, principally electricity, used by our facilities and other operations affect our net income and cash flows. Natural gas and utility prices are affected by factors outside of our control, such as supply and demand in both local and regional markets. Natural gas prices have historically been volatile.
For example, daily prices for natural gas as reported on the NYMEX ranged between $3.95 and $1.58 per million British thermal unit ("MMBtu") in 2024, and between $4.17 and $1.99 per MMBtu in 2023. Typically, electricity prices fluctuate with natural gas prices. Future increases in natural gas and utility prices may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations. However, international natural gas prices have been more volatile, and more expensive, than domestic prices, which can provide a competitive advantage to domestic plants. This dynamic means that market product prices may increase more than our utility costs, creating higher margins when natural gas and utility costs increase less than international competitors' utility prices. Natural gas and utility costs constituted approximately 10.3% and 15.4% of our total operating expenses included in cost of sales for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively. As prices and industry competitive dynamics change, it could adversely affect our profitability and the amount of cash available for payments of our debt obligations.
Costs - Risk 6
Our facilities incur operating hazards, and the potential limits on insurance coverage could expose us to potentially significant liability costs.Our facilities are subject to certain operating hazards, and our cash flow from those operations could decline if any of our facilities experience a major accident, pipeline rupture or spill, explosion or fire, is damaged by severe weather or other natural disaster, or otherwise is forced to curtail its operations or shut down. These operating hazards could result in substantial losses due to personal injury and/or loss of life, severe damage to and destruction of property and equipment, and pollution or other environmental damage. One or more of these developments may result in significant curtailment or suspension of our related operations.
Although we maintain insurance policies, including personal and property damage and business interruption insurance for each of our facilities, we cannot ensure that this insurance will be adequate to protect us from all material expenses related to potential future claims for personal and property damage or significant interruption of operations. Our business interruption insurance will not apply unless a business interruption exceeds 60 days. Furthermore, we may be unable to maintain or obtain insurance of the type and amount we desire at reasonable rates. As a result of market conditions, premiums and deductibles for certain of our insurance policies have increased and could escalate further. In some instances, certain insurance could become unavailable or available only for reduced amounts of coverage. In addition, we are not fully insured against all risks incident to our business because certain risks are not fully insurable, coverage is unavailable,or premium costs, in our judgment, do not justify such expenditures. For example, we are not insured for all environmental liabilities, including, but not limited to, product spills and other releases at all of our facilities. If we were to incur a significant liability for which we are not insured or fully insured, it could affect our financial condition and diminish our ability to make payments of our debt obligations.
Costs - Risk 7
Downtime for maintenance at our refineries and facilities will reduce our revenues and could limit our ability to make payments of our debt obligations.Our facilities consist of many processing units, a number of which have been in operation for extended periods of time. One or more of the units have in the past required, and may in the future require, additional unscheduled downtime for unanticipated maintenance or repairs that are more frequent than our scheduled turnaround for each unit every one to five years. Scheduled and unscheduled maintenance reduce our revenues and increase our operating expenses during the period of time that our processing units are not operating and could limit our ability to make payments of our debt obligations.
Costs - Risk 8
Our business has exposure to some commodities which are volatile, and a reduction in our margins will adversely affect the amount of cash we will have available to operate our business and for payments of our debt obligations.In many cases, specialty products are produced from intermediates that ultimately originate from crude oil. Typically, we enjoy a cost advantage from processing crude oil into intermediates that are used as specialty feedstocks. This process also creates fuels and other by-products, which carry a margin to crude prices. Typically, the total margin of fuels and other by-products to crude oil is a positive, but in extreme demand scenarios this cost advantage can turn into a short-term disadvantage. When the margin between product sales prices and feedstock costs tightens, our earnings, profitability and cash flows are negatively impacted.
A widely used benchmark to track margins in the fuel products industry is the Gulf Coast 2/1/1 crack spread ("Gulf Coast crack spread"), which represents the gross margin assuming that two barrels of a benchmark crude oil are converted, or cracked, into one barrel of gasoline and one barrel of diesel. The Gulf Coast 2/1/1 crack spread ranged from a high of $31.42 per barrel to a low of $9.45 per barrel during 2024 and averaged $17.02 per barrel during 2024 compared to an average of $31.64 in 2023.
Our actual fuels product margins may vary from the Gulf Coast crack spread due to the actual crude oil used and products produced, transportation costs, regional differences, and the timing of the purchase of the feedstock and sale of the refined products, but we use the Gulf Coast crack spread as an indicator of the volatility and general levels of fuels refining margins.
Our specialty product margins are influenced by the price of our feedstocks, many of which are commodities. If feedstock prices increase, our margins would fall unless we are able to pass through these price increases to our customers. For example, during fiscal year 2022, higher material and feedstock costs adversely impacted our margins for our Performance Brands segment.
Legal & Regulatory
Total Risks: 6/44 (14%)Above Sector Average
Regulation1 | 2.3%
Regulation - Risk 1
Montana Renewables is subject to a number of statutes and regulations that could have an adverse effect on Montana Renewables' operations.Taxation & Government Incentives2 | 4.5%
Taxation & Government Incentives - Risk 1
A significant component of our product margin consists of a variety of government subsidies, incentives and mandates, and any changes in law that eliminate or reduce these subsidies, incentives and mandates would have a material adverse impact on our results of operations and financial condition.Changed
Taxation & Government Incentives - Risk 2
Compliance with and changes in tax laws could adversely affect our performance.Added
The Company is subject to extensive tax liabilities, including federal, state, local and foreign taxes such as income, excise, sales/use, payroll, franchise, property, gross receipts, withholding and ad valorem taxes. New tax laws and regulations and changes in existing tax laws and regulations, such as the IRA, are continuously being enacted or proposed and could result in increased expenditures for tax liabilities in the future. These liabilities are subject to periodic audits by the respective taxing authorities, which could increase our tax liabilities. Subsequent changes to our tax liabilities as a result of these audits may also subject us to interest and penalties. There can be no certainty that our federal, state, local or foreign taxes could be passed on to our customers.
Environmental / Social3 | 6.8%
Environmental / Social - Risk 1
We are subject to operational compliance with stringent environmental and occupational health and safety laws and regulations that may expose us to significant costs and liabilities.Environmental / Social - Risk 2
The availability and cost of renewable identification numbers and results of litigation related to our SRE petitions could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition and our ability to make payments on our debt obligations.Under the RFS provisions of the Clean Air Act, the EPA sets or adjusts volume mandates for the percentages of four compliance categories-cellulosic biofuel, biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel, and total renewable fuel-to be blended into gasoline and diesel produced or imported during each calendar year. Most recently, the EPA has established these volume mandates for RFS program years 2023, 2024 and 2025 under final rules published in June 2023. We, and other refiners subject to RFS requirements, may meet those requirements by blending the necessary volumes of renewable transportation fuels into our production. To the extent that refiners cannot blend renewable fuels in the quantities required, those refiners may purchase renewable credits, referred to as RINs, which are created by blending done by others.
Our Shreveport and Great Falls refineries produce transportation fuels subject to the RFS volume mandates. Our annual RINs Obligation, which includes RINs that are required to be secured through either our own blending or through the purchase of RINs in the open market, is approximately 65 million RINs across the four compliance categories. However, the EPA granted certain of our refineries the small refinery exemption ("SRE") provided by the RFS in past years including, most recently, for the 2018 program year. Refineries that receive a SRE are not subject to the RFS renewable blending requirements for the corresponding calendar year. We have submitted SRE petitions for our Shreveport and Great Falls refineries for multiple program years, including 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024. Refer to Note 2 - "Summary of Significant Accounting Policies" under Part II, Item 8 "Financial Statements - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements" for additional information relating to the status of SRE petitions for specific compliance years.
We cannot predict the final outcome of these matters or whether they may result in increased RFS program compliance costs. Moreover, the price of RINs remains subject to extreme volatility, with the potential for significant increases in price driven by political decisions rather than fundamentals. There also continues to be a shortage of advanced biofuel production resulting in increased difficulties meeting the original RFS program mandates. Our refineries produce a higher ratio of diesel than national averages, and since ethanol cannot be blended into diesel we therefore have a more difficult "compliance pathway" than average. The inability to receive an exemption under the RFS program for one or more of our refineries; any increase in the final minimum volumes of renewable fuels that must be blended with refined petroleum fuels; and/or any increase in the cost to acquire RINs may, individually or in the aggregate, have the potential to result in significant costs in connection with RIN compliance, which costs could be material.
Refer to Note 2 - "Summary of Significant Accounting Policies" under Part II, Item 8 "Financial Statements - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements" for further information. Our involvement in such litigation may strain our resources, increase our costs and distract management, even if we are successful at certain stages. As long as the final outcome of our SRE petitions remains uncertain, we expect to carry a RINs liability on our consolidated balance sheets and any changes to such liability will be recognized as a charge or credit to net income (loss). As a result of such charges, investors may have a negative outlook on our financial position regardless of the actual impact these charges have on our business.
Environmental / Social - Risk 3
We could incur substantial costs or disruptions in our business if we cannot obtain or maintain necessary permits and authorizations or otherwise comply with occupational, environmental and other laws and regulations.Our operations require numerous permits and authorizations under various occupational, environmental and other laws and regulations. These authorizations and permits are subject to revocation, renewal or modification and can require operational changes to limit impacts or potential impacts on the environment and/or the health or safety of workers. New policy objectives and regulatory initiatives pursued under the Biden Administration as well as changes in leadership or priorities at the state level may result in more stringent conditions with respect to the acquisition of these authorizations and permits. Additionally, a violation of an authorization or permit conditions or other legal or regulatory requirements could result in substantial fines, criminal sanctions, permit revocations, injunctions and/or facility shutdowns. Any or all of these matters could have a negative effect on our business, results of operations and cash flow available for payments on our debt obligations.
Subsidiaries
Ability to Sell
Total Risks: 4/44 (9%)Above Sector Average
Competition2 | 4.5%
Competition - Risk 1
Competition in our industry is intense, and an increase in competition in the markets in which we sell our products could adversely affect our earnings and profitability.Competition - Risk 2
The production of renewable fuels is a growing industry and we are expecting to encounter significant competition in the marketplace.Changed
The production of renewable fuels is a growing industry and we are expecting to encounter significant competition in the marketplace. Emerging trends that develop as industry production of renewable fuels increases may adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects. We have encountered and will continue to encounter risks and difficulties frequently experienced by growing companies in rapidly changing industries, including unpredictable and volatile revenues and increased expenses as our business continues to grow. In addition, new technologies or methods of operation may be developed that improve the quality of the fuel, increase production, or decrease the costs of production.
Demand2 | 4.5%
Demand - Risk 1
If there is not sufficient demand for renewable energy, if renewable energy markets do not develop or take longer to develop than we anticipate, or if we do not realize the expected SAF premium, we may be unable to achieve our investment objectives for MRL, which could have a material adverse impact on our results of operations and financial condition.Changed
Demand - Risk 2
Our business depends on supply and demand fundamentals, which can be adversely affected by numerous macroeconomic factors outside of our control and which may in turn impact our operational and financial performance, including our ability to execute our business strategies in the expected time frame.Such macroeconomic factors include:
- reduction in the demand for, and the marketability of, our specialty products due to governmental regulations;- increased volatility in product margins;- the ability or willingness of our suppliers to provide raw materials, equipment, services or supplies for our operations or otherwise fulfill their contractual obligations, which could reduce our production levels or otherwise impact our ability to deliver refined or finished lubricant products timely or at all;- the ability or willingness of our customers to fulfill their contractual obligations or any material reduction in, or loss of, orders or revenue from our customers;- occurrence of operational hazards, including terrorism, cyberattacks or domestic vandalism, as well as information system failures or communication network disruptions;- increased cost and reduced availability of capital for growth or maintenance expenditures;- availability and operability of terminals, tankage and pipelines that store and transport our feedstocks and products;- the amount of our borrowing base under our revolving credit facility and our ability to issue letters of credit or the requirement that we post substantial amounts of credit support;- the impairment of our long-lived assets or goodwill, which could reduce our earnings;- the impact of any economic downturn, recession, inflationary pressures, increases in interest rates or other disruptions of the U.S. and global economies and financial and commodity markets; and - political tensions, conflicts and war, such as the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Tech & Innovation
Total Risks: 3/44 (7%)Above Sector Average
Trade Secrets1 | 2.3%
Trade Secrets - Risk 1
Montana Renewable's operations are dependent on the use of intellectual property licensed to MRL by third parties, and if MRL fails to comply with our obligations under such license agreements, we may be required to pay damages, and we could lose license rights that are critical to our business.Cyber Security1 | 2.3%
Cyber Security - Risk 1
We are subject to cybersecurity risks and other cyber incidents resulting in disruption.Technology1 | 2.3%
Technology - Risk 1
AI presents risks and challenges that can impact our business.Added
Macro & Political
Total Risks: 1/44 (2%)Above Sector Average
Natural and Human Disruptions1 | 2.3%
Natural and Human Disruptions - Risk 1
Our and our customers' operations are subject to risks arising out of the threat of climate change, including regulatory, political, litigation and financial risks, which could result in increased operating and capital costs for our customers and reduced demand for the products and services we provide.See a full breakdown of risk according to category and subcategory. The list starts with the category with the most risk. Click on subcategories to read relevant extracts from the most recent report.
FAQ
What are “Risk Factors”?
Risk factors are any situations or occurrences that could make investing in a company risky.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires that publicly traded companies disclose their most significant risk factors. This is so that potential investors can consider any risks before they make an investment.
They also offer companies protection, as a company can use risk factors as liability protection. This could happen if a company underperforms and investors take legal action as a result.
It is worth noting that smaller companies, that is those with a public float of under $75 million on the last business day, do not have to include risk factors in their 10-K and 10-Q forms, although some may choose to do so.
How do companies disclose their risk factors?
Publicly traded companies initially disclose their risk factors to the SEC through their S-1 filings as part of the IPO process.
Additionally, companies must provide a complete list of risk factors in their Annual Reports (Form 10-K) or (Form 20-F) for “foreign private issuers”.
Quarterly Reports also include a section on risk factors (Form 10-Q) where companies are only required to update any changes since the previous report.
According to the SEC, risk factors should be reported concisely, logically and in “plain English” so investors can understand them.
How can I use TipRanks risk factors in my stock research?
Use the Risk Factors tab to get data about the risk factors of any company in which you are considering investing.
You can easily see the most significant risks a company is facing. Additionally, you can find out which risk factors a company has added, removed or adjusted since its previous disclosure. You can also see how a company’s risk factors compare to others in its sector.
Without reading company reports or participating in conference calls, you would most likely not have access to this sort of information, which is usually not included in press releases or other public announcements.
A simplified analysis of risk factors is unique to TipRanks.
What are all the risk factor categories?
TipRanks has identified 6 major categories of risk factors and a number of subcategories for each. You can see how these categories are broken down in the list below.
1. Financial & Corporate
- Accounting & Financial Operations - risks related to accounting loss, value of intangible assets, financial statements, value of intangible assets, financial reporting, estimates, guidance, company profitability, dividends, fluctuating results.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights – risks related to things that impact share prices and the rights of shareholders, including analyst ratings, major shareholder activity, trade volatility, liquidity of shares, anti-takeover provisions, international listing, dual listing.
- Debt & Financing – risks related to debt, funding, financing and interest rates, financial investments.
- Corporate Activity and Growth – risks related to restructuring, M&As, joint ventures, execution of corporate strategy, strategic alliances.
2. Legal & Regulatory
- Litigation and Legal Liabilities – risks related to litigation/ lawsuits against the company.
- Regulation – risks related to compliance, GDPR, and new legislation.
- Environmental / Social – risks related to environmental regulation and to data privacy.
- Taxation & Government Incentives – risks related to taxation and changes in government incentives.
3. Production
- Costs – risks related to costs of production including commodity prices, future contracts, inventory.
- Supply Chain – risks related to the company’s suppliers.
- Manufacturing – risks related to the company’s manufacturing process including product quality and product recalls.
- Human Capital – risks related to recruitment, training and retention of key employees, employee relationships & unions labor disputes, pension, and post retirement benefits, medical, health and welfare benefits, employee misconduct, employee litigation.
4. Technology & Innovation
- Innovation / R&D – risks related to innovation and new product development.
- Technology – risks related to the company’s reliance on technology.
- Cyber Security – risks related to securing the company’s digital assets and from cyber attacks.
- Trade Secrets & Patents – risks related to the company’s ability to protect its intellectual property and to infringement claims against the company as well as piracy and unlicensed copying.
5. Ability to Sell
- Demand – risks related to the demand of the company’s goods and services including seasonality, reliance on key customers.
- Competition – risks related to the company’s competition including substitutes.
- Sales & Marketing – risks related to sales, marketing, and distribution channels, pricing, and market penetration.
- Brand & Reputation – risks related to the company’s brand and reputation.
6. Macro & Political
- Economy & Political Environment – risks related to changes in economic and political conditions.
- Natural and Human Disruptions – risks related to catastrophes, floods, storms, terror, earthquakes, coronavirus pandemic/COVID-19.
- International Operations – risks related to the global nature of the company.
- Capital Markets – risks related to exchange rates and trade, cryptocurrency.