Peabody Energy Comm (BTU) Risk Analysis

Peabody manages its business with a number of key personnel, the loss of whom could have a material adverse effect on the Company, absent the completion of an orderly transition. In addition, the Company believes that its future success will depend greatly on its continued ability to attract and retain highly skilled and qualified personnel in tight labor markets, particularly personnel with mining experience. Peabody cannot provide assurance that key personnel will continue to be employed by the Company or that it will be able to attract and retain qualified personnel in the future. Failure to retain or attract key personnel could have a material adverse effect on the Company.

The Company operates in a competitive and highly regulated industry that has at times experienced strong headwinds. Current pricing levels of both seaborne and domestic coal products may not be sustainable in the future. Declines in coal prices could materially and adversely affect the Company's operating results and profitability and the value of its coal reserves and resources. Coal prices are dependent upon factors beyond the Company's control, including: - the demand for electricity and capacity utilization of electricity generating units (whether coal or non-coal);- changes in the fuel consumption and dispatch patterns of electric power generators, whether based on economic or non-economic factors;- the proximity, capacity and cost of transportation and terminal facilities;- competition with and the availability, quality and price of coal and alternative fuels, including natural gas, fuel oil, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind, biomass and solar power;- governmental regulations and taxes, including tariffs or other trade restrictions as well as those establishing air emission standards for coal-fueled power plants or mandating or subsidizing increased use of electricity from renewable energy sources;- the strength of the global economy;- the global supply and production costs of thermal and metallurgical coal;- the demand for steel, which may lead to price fluctuations in the monthly and quarterly repricing of the Company's metallurgical coal contracts;- weather patterns, severe weather and natural disasters;- regulatory, administrative and judicial decisions, including those affecting future mining permits and leases;- competing technologies used to make steel, some of which do not use coal as a manufacturing input, such as electric arc furnaces; and - technological developments, including those related to alternative energy sources, those intended to convert coal-to-liquids or gas and those aimed at capturing, using and storing carbon dioxide. Thermal coal accounted for the majority of the Company's coal sales by volume during 2023 and 2022, with the vast majority of these sales to electric power generators. The demand for coal consumed for electric power generation is affected by many of the factors described above, but primarily by (i) the overall demand for electricity; (ii) the availability, quality and price of competing fuels, such as natural gas, nuclear, fuel oil and alternative energy sources; (iii) utilization of all electricity generating units (whether using coal or not), including the relative cost of producing electricity from multiple fuels, including coal; (iv) stringent environmental and other governmental regulations; (v) other sociopolitical views on coal; and (vi) the coal inventories of utilities. Gas-fueled generation has displaced and could continue to displace coal-fueled generation (particularly from older, less efficient coal-fueled generation units) as current and potentially increasing regulatory costs and other factors impact the operating decisions of electric power generators. In addition, some electric power generators have made decisions to close coal-fueled generation units given ongoing pressure to shift away from coal generation. Many of the new power plants in the U.S. may be fueled by natural gas because gas-fired plants have been less expensive to construct, permits to construct these plants are easier to obtain based on emissions profiles and electric power generators may face public and governmental pressure to generate a larger portion of their electricity from natural gas-fueled units and alternative energy sources. Increasingly stringent regulations along with stagnant electricity demand in recent years have also reduced the number of new power plants being built. In recent years, these trends have reduced demand for the Company's coal and the related prices. Lower demand for coal consumed by electric power generators could reduce the volume of thermal coal that the Company sells and the prices that it receives for the thermal coal, thereby reducing its revenue and adversely impacting its earnings and the value of its coal reserves and resources. The Company produces metallurgical coal that is used in the global steel industry. Metallurgical coal accounted for approximately 26% and 32% of its revenue in 2023 and 2022, respectively. Changes in governmental policies and regulations and changes in the steel industry, including the demand for steel, could reduce the demand for the Company's metallurgical coal. Lower demand for metallurgical coal in international markets could reduce the amount of metallurgical coal that the Company sells and the prices that it receives for the metallurgical coal, thereby reducing its revenue and adversely impacting its earnings and the value of its coal reserves and resources. The balance between coal demand and supply, factoring in demand and supply of closely related and competing fuel sources, both domestically and internationally, could materially reduce coal prices and therefore materially reduce the Company's revenue and profitability. The Company competes with other fuel sources used for electricity generation, such as natural gas, nuclear and renewables. The Company's seaborne products compete with other producers as well as other fuel sources. Declines in the price of natural gas could cause demand for coal to decrease and adversely affect the price of coal. Sustained periods of low natural gas prices or low prices for other fuels may also cause utilities to phase out or close existing coal-fueled power plants or reduce construction of new coal-fueled power plants. In the U.S., no new coal-fueled power plants are being constructed or reopened after closure. These closures could have a material adverse effect on demand and prices for the Company's coal, thereby reducing its revenue and materially and adversely affecting its business and results of operations.

Numerous governmental permits and approvals are required for mining operations. The permitting rules, and the interpretations of these rules, are complex, change frequently and are often subject to discretionary interpretations by regulators, all of which may make compliance more difficult or impractical. As part of this permitting process, when the Company applies for permits and approvals, it is required to prepare and present to governmental authorities data pertaining to the potential impact or effect that any proposed exploration for or production of coal may have upon the environment. The public, including non-governmental organizations, opposition groups and individuals, have statutory rights to comment upon and submit objections to requested permits and approvals (including modifications and renewals of certain permits and approvals) and otherwise engage in the permitting process, including bringing citizens' lawsuits to challenge the issuance of permits, the validity of environmental impact statements or the performance of mining activities. In recent years, the permitting required for coal mining has been the subject of increasingly stringent regulatory and administrative requirements and extensive litigation by environmental groups. Additionally, the Company's operations may be affected by sites within or near mining areas that have cultural heritage significance to indigenous peoples, and its mining permits may be rescinded or modified, or its mining plans may be voluntarily adjusted, to mitigate against adverse impacts to such sites. The costs, liabilities and requirements associated with these permitting requirements and any related opposition may be extensive and time-consuming and may delay commencement or continuation of exploration or production which would adversely affect the Company's coal production, cash flows and profitability. Further, required permits may not be issued or renewed in a timely fashion or at all, or permits issued or renewed may be conditioned in a manner that may restrict the Company's ability to efficiently and economically conduct its mining activities, any of which would materially reduce its production, cash flows and profitability.

In recent years the Company has been adversely impacted by inflation, which has increased the cost of materials, labor, equipment, freight, fuel and other cost categories. The Company's efforts to recover inflation-based cost increases from its customers may be hampered as a result of the structure of its contracts and the contract bidding process as well as the competitive industries, economic conditions and countries in which the Company operates. Accordingly, substantial inflation may result in a material adverse impact on the Company's costs, profitability and financial results.

The Company's operations are susceptible to widespread outbreaks of illness or other public health issues. Pandemic illnesses could have a material adverse effect on the Company's business, results of operations, financial condition and prospects, including its ability to comply with restrictions and covenants under its debt and surety bonding obligations. Pandemic or other widespread illnesses could result in governmental mandates requiring shutdowns of facilities for indefinite periods; serious health issues and absenteeism within the workforce; and disruptions to supply chain and distribution channels impacting both vendors and customers. As a result, the Company could face increased costs or decreased sales. Adverse changes in the general domestic and global economic conditions and disrupted domestic and international credit markets, could negatively affect its customers' ability to pay the Company as well as its ability to access capital that could negatively affect its liquidity. Despite its efforts to manage these potential impacts, their ultimate impact would also depend on factors beyond the Company's knowledge or control, including the duration and severity of the pandemic as well as third-party actions taken to contain its spread and mitigate its public health effects. These factors could have a material adverse effect on its business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects.