Public companies are required to disclose risks that can affect the business and impact the stock. These disclosures are known as “Risk Factors”. Companies disclose these risks in their yearly (Form 10-K), quarterly earnings (Form 10-Q), or “foreign private issuer” reports (Form 20-F). Risk factors show the challenges a company faces. Investors can consider the worst-case scenarios before making an investment. TipRanks’ Risk Analysis categorizes risks based on proprietary classification algorithms and machine learning.
Banco Santander Brasil disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Banco Santander Brasil reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Risk Overview Q4, 2023
Risk Distribution
42% Finance & Corporate
24% Macro & Political
18% Legal & Regulatory
8% Ability to Sell
4% Tech & Innovation
4% Production
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
This chart displays the stock's most recent risk distribution according to category. TipRanks has identified 6 major categories: Finance & corporate, legal & regulatory, macro & political, production, tech & innovation, and ability to sell.
Risk Change Over Time
S&P500 Average
Sector Average
Risks removed
Risks added
Risks changed
Banco Santander Brasil Risk Factors
New Risk (0)
Risk Changed (0)
Risk Removed (0)
No changes from previous report
The chart shows the number of risks a company has disclosed. You can compare this to the sector average or S&P 500 average.
The quarters shown in the chart are according to the calendar year (January to December). Businesses set their own financial calendar, known as a fiscal year. For example, Walmart ends their financial year at the end of January to accommodate the holiday season.
Risk Highlights Q4, 2023
Main Risk Category
Finance & Corporate
With 33 Risks
Finance & Corporate
With 33 Risks
Number of Disclosed Risks
78
-1
From last report
S&P 500 Average: 31
78
-1
From last report
S&P 500 Average: 31
Recent Changes
1Risks added
2Risks removed
7Risks changed
Since Dec 2023
1Risks added
2Risks removed
7Risks changed
Since Dec 2023
Number of Risk Changed
7
-1
From last report
S&P 500 Average: 3
7
-1
From last report
S&P 500 Average: 3
See the risk highlights of Banco Santander Brasil in the last period.
Risk Word Cloud
The most common phrases about risk factors from the most recent report. Larger texts indicate more widely used phrases.
Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 78
Finance & Corporate
Total Risks: 33/78 (42%)Below Sector Average
Share Price & Shareholder Rights9 | 11.5%
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 1
Our ultimate controlling shareholder has a great deal of influence over our business, and its interests could conflict with ours.
As of February 20, 2024, Santander Spain, our ultimate controlling shareholder, currently owns, directly and indirectly, approximately 89.53% of our total capital. Due to its share ownership, our controlling shareholder has the power to control us and our subsidiaries, including the power to:
- elect a majority of our directors that appoint our executive officers, set our management policies and exercise overall control over our Company and subsidiaries;- influence the appointment of our principal officers;- declare the payment of any dividends;- agree to sell or otherwise transfer its controlling stake in our Company; and - determine the outcome of substantially all actions requiring shareholder approval, including amendments of our bylaws, transactions with related parties, corporate reorganizations, acquisitions and dispositions of assets, and dividends.
We operate as a standalone subsidiary within the Santander Group. Our controlling shareholder has no liability for our banking operations, except for the amount of its holdings of our capital stock and for other specific limited circumstances under Brazilian law. The interests of Santander Spain may differ from the interests of our other shareholders, and the concentration of control in Santander Spain will limit other shareholders' ability to influence corporate matters. As a result, we may take actions that our other shareholders do not view as beneficial.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 2
Our status as a controlled company and a foreign private issuer exempts us from certain of the corporate governance standards of the New York Stock Exchange, or "NYSE," limiting the protections afforded to investors.
We are a "controlled company" and a "foreign private issuer" within the meaning of the NYSE corporate governance standards. Under the NYSE rules, a controlled company is exempt from certain NYSE corporate governance requirements. In addition, a foreign private issuer may elect to comply with the practice of its home country and not to comply with certain NYSE corporate governance requirements, including the requirements that (i) a majority of the board of directors consists of independent directors, (ii) a nominating and corporate governance committee be established that is composed entirely of independent directors and has a written charter addressing the committee's purpose and responsibilities, (iii) a compensation committee be established that is composed entirely of independent directors and has a written charter addressing the committee's purpose and responsibilities and (iv) an annual performance evaluation of the nominating and corporate governance and compensation committees be undertaken. Although we have similar practices, they do not entirely conform to the NYSE requirements; therefore, we currently use these exemptions and intend to continue using them. Accordingly, you will not have the same protections provided to shareholders of companies that are subject to all NYSE corporate governance requirements.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 3
If securities analysts do not publish research or reports about our business or if they downgrade our ADRs or securities issued by other companies in our sector, the price and trading volume of our ADRs and/or our shares could decline.
The trading market for our ADRs and our shares has been affected in part by the research and reports that industry and financial analysts publish about us or our business. We do not control these analysts. Furthermore, if one or more of the analysts downgrade our ADRs, our shares or our industry, change their views regarding the shares of any of our competitors, or other companies in our sector, or publish inaccurate or unfavorable research about our business, the market price of our ADRs and/or shares could decline. If one or more of these analysts stops providing reports or fails to publish reports on us regularly, we could lose visibility in the market, which in turn could cause our ADR and/or share price or trading volume to decline.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 4
Discontinuation of the current corporate governance practices may negatively affect the price of our ADRs and units.
After completion of the voluntary exchange offers by Santander Spain in Brazil and in the United States (respectively, the "Brazilian Exchange Offer" and the "U.S. Exchange Offer") for the acquisition of up to all of our shares that were not held by the Santander Group at that time, we are no longer subject to the obligations of the special listing segment of B3 known as Corporate Governance Level 2 (the "Level 2 Segment"). Currently, we voluntarily comply with certain of the corporate governance requirements for companies listed on the Level 2 Segment.
Discontinuation, in whole or in part, of our existing corporate governance practices or minimum protections may adversely affect your rights as a security holder and may result in a decrease in the price of our shares, units and ADRs.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 5
Holders of ADRs may find it difficult to exercise voting rights at our shareholders' meetings.
Holders of ADRs are not our direct shareholders and are unable to enforce directly the rights of shareholders under our By-Laws and Brazilian Corporate Law. Holders of ADRs may exercise voting rights with respect to the units represented by ADRs only in accordance with the deposit agreement governing the ADRs. Holders of ADRs face practical limitations in exercising their voting rights because of the additional steps involved in our communications with ADR holders. For example, we are required to publish a notice of our shareholders' meetings in specified newspapers in Brazil. Holders of our units will be able to exercise their voting rights by attending a shareholders' meeting in person or voting by proxy. By contrast, holders of ADRs will receive notice of a shareholders' meeting by mail from the ADRs depositary following our notice to the depositary requesting the depositary to do so. To exercise their voting rights, holders of ADRs must instruct the ADR depositary on a timely basis on how they wish to vote. This voting process necessarily will take longer for holders of ADRs than for holders of our units or shares. If the ADR depositary fails to receive timely voting instructions for all or part of the ADRs, the depositary will assume that the holders of those ADRs are instructing it to give a discretionary proxy to a person designated by us to vote their ADRs, except in limited circumstances.
Holders of ADRs also may not receive the voting materials in time to instruct the depositary to vote the units underlying their ADRs. In addition, the depositary and its agents are not responsible for failing to carry out voting instructions of the holders of ADRs or for the manner of carrying out those voting instructions. Accordingly, holders of ADRs may not be able to exercise voting rights, and they will have little, if any, recourse if the units underlying their ADRs are not voted as requested.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 6
Our corporate disclosure may differ from disclosure regularly published by issuers of securities in other countries, including the United States.
Issuers of securities in Brazil are required to make public disclosures that are different from, and that may be reported under presentations that are not consistent with, disclosures required in other countries, including the United States. In particular, for regulatory purposes, we currently prepare and will continue to prepare and make available to our shareholders statutory financial statements in accordance with IFRS as issued by the IASB and Brazilian GAAP, both of which differ from U.S. GAAP in a number of respects. In addition, as a foreign private issuer, we are not subject to the same disclosure requirements in the United States as a domestic U.S. registrant under the Exchange Act, including the requirements to prepare and issue quarterly reports, the proxy rules applicable to domestic U.S. registrants under Section 14 of the Exchange Act or the insider reporting and short-swing profit rules under Section 16 of the Exchange Act. Accordingly, the information about us available to you will not be the same as the information available to shareholders of a U.S. company and may be reported in a manner with which you are not familiar.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 7
Investors may find it difficult to enforce civil liabilities against us or our directors and officers.
The majority of our directors and officers reside outside the United States. In addition, all or a substantial portion of our assets and the assets of our directors and officers are located outside the United States. Although we have appointed an agent for service of process in any action against us in the United States with respect to our ADRs, none of our directors or officers has consented to service of process in the United States or to the jurisdiction of any U.S. court. As a result, it may not be possible for holders of our shares, units and/or ADRs to effect service of process against these other persons within the United States or other jurisdictions outside Brazil or to enforce against these other persons judgments obtained in the United States or other jurisdictions outside Brazil. Holders of our ADRs may face greater difficulties in protecting their interests due to actions by us or our directors or executive officers than would shareholders of a U.S. corporation, because judgments of U.S. courts for civil liabilities based upon the U.S. federal securities laws may only be enforced in Brazil if the judgment meets the following conditions: (i) it must comply with the formalities necessary for enforcement under the laws of the jurisdiction in which it was rendered; (ii) it must have been issued by a competent jurisdiction/court after proper service of process on the parties, which service must comply with Brazilian law if made in Brazil, or after sufficient evidence of the parties' absence (revelia) has been given, as required by applicable law; (iii) it must be final, binding and therefore not subject to appeal (res judicata) in the jurisdiction in which it was issued; (iv) it must be apostilled by a competent authority of the country from which the document emanates according to the Hague Convention of 5 October 1961 Abolishing the Requirement of Legalization for Foreign Public Documents or, if such country is not signatory of the Hague Convention, it must be duly authenticated by a competent Brazilian consulate in the country where the foreign judgment is issued; (v) it must be accompanied by a translation thereof into Portuguese made by a certified translator in Brazil, unless an exemption is provided by an international treaty to which Brazil is a signatory; (vi) it must not be contrary to Brazilian national sovereignty, good morals or public policy or violate the dignity of the human person (as set forth in Brazilian law); (vii) it must not relate to a matter which is also subject to a similar proceeding in Brazil involving the same parties, based on the same grounds and with the same object, which has already been judged by a Brazilian court (res judicata); and (viii) it must not violate the exclusive jurisdiction of Brazilian courts pursuant to the provision of Article 23 of the Brazilian Code of Civil Procedure (Law No. 13,105/2015). Judgments which meet these criteria are not subject to an analysis of the merits or a retrial by Brazilian courts.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 8
Holders of ADRs may be unable to exercise preemptive rights with respect to our units underlying the ADRs.
Holders of ADRs will be unable to exercise the preemptive rights relating to our units underlying ADRs unless a registration statement under the Securities Act is effective with respect to the shares for which those rights are exercisable or an exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act is available. We are not obligated to file a registration statement with respect to the shares relating to these preemptive rights or to take any other action to make preemptive rights available to holders of units or ADRs. We may decide, at our discretion, not to file any such registration statement. If we do not file a registration statement or if we and the ADR depositary decide not to make preemptive rights available to holders of units or ADRs, those holders may receive only the net proceeds from the sale of their preemptive rights by the depositary, or if they are not sold, their preemptive rights will be allowed to lapse.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 9
Holders of ADRs have different shareholders' rights than do shareholders of companies incorporated in the United States and certain other jurisdictions.
Our corporate affairs are governed by our By-Laws and by Brazilian Corporate Law, which may differ from the legal principles that would apply if we were incorporated in a jurisdiction in the United States or in certain other jurisdictions outside Brazil.
Under Brazilian Corporate Law, holders of the ADRs are not our direct shareholders and have to exercise their voting rights through the depositary. Therefore, holders of ADRs may have fewer and less well-defined rights to protect their interests relative to actions taken by our board of directors or the holders of our common shares under Brazilian law than under the laws of other jurisdictions outside Brazil.
Although Brazilian Corporate Law imposes restrictions on insider trading and price manipulation, the form of these regulations and the manner of their enforcement may differ from that in the U.S. securities markets or markets in certain other jurisdictions. In addition, in Brazil, self-dealing and the preservation of shareholder interests may be regulated differently, which could potentially disadvantage you as a holder of the preferred shares underlying ADRs.
Accounting & Financial Operations5 | 6.4%
Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 1
Holders of our units and our ADRs may not receive any dividends or interest on stockholders' equity.
According to our By-Laws, we must generally pay our shareholders at least 25% of our annual net income as dividends or interest on stockholders' equity, as calculated and adjusted under Brazilian Corporate Law, or "adjusted net income," which may differ significantly from our net income as determined under IFRS. This adjusted net income may be used to increase capital or to absorb losses, or otherwise retained as allowed under Brazilian Corporate Law, and may not be available to be paid as dividends or interest on stockholders' equity. Additionally, Brazilian Corporate Law allows a publicly traded company, like ours, to suspend the mandatory distribution of dividends and interest on stockholders' equity in any particular year if our board of directors informs our shareholders that such distributions would be inadvisable in view of our financial condition or cash availability. We paid R$6.2 billion, R$8.1 billion and R$9.6 billion (R$1.67, R$2.17 and R$2.59 per unit, respectively) as dividends and interest on stockholders' equity (considering gross value) in 2023, 2022 and 2021, respectively, in accordance with our dividend policy, but there can be no assurance that dividends and interest on stockholders' equity will be paid in the future. In the future, we may also become subject to Brazilian banking regulations that may limit the payment of dividends or interest on stockholders' equity, such as a temporary restriction in 2020 on dividend distributions and other payments as a result of measures taken by the Brazilian Central Bank to combat the COVID-19 pandemic's effect on the Brazilian financial sector. Although this restriction was not reinstated in the years that followed, we cannot assure you that this or other restrictions will not be reinstated in the future.
Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 2
Changes in accounting standards could impact reported earnings.
Accounting standard setters and other regulatory bodies periodically change the financial accounting and reporting standards that govern the preparation of our consolidated financial statements. These changes can materially impact how we record and report our financial condition and results of operations. In some cases, we could be required to apply a new or revised standard retroactively, resulting in the restatement of prior period financial statements. For further information about developments in financial accounting and reporting standards, see note 1 to our audited consolidated financial statements included elsewhere in this annual report.
Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 3
Our financial statements are based in part on assumptions and estimates that impact the results of our operations.
The preparation of financial statements requires management to make judgments, estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, income and expenses. Due to the inherent uncertainty in making estimates, actual results reported in future periods may be based upon amounts that differ from those estimates. Estimates, judgments and assumptions are continually evaluated and are based on historical experience and other factors, including expectations of future events that are believed to be reasonable under the circumstances. Revisions to accounting estimates are recognized in the period in which the estimate is revised and in any future periods affected. The accounting policies deemed critical to our results and financial position, based upon materiality and significant judgments and estimates, include impairment of financial assets measured at amortized cost, goodwill impairment, valuation of financial instruments, impairment of financial assets measured at fair value through other comprehensive income, deferred tax assets provision and pension obligation for liabilities.
If the judgment, estimates and assumptions we use in preparing our consolidated financial statements are subsequently found to be incorrect or misstated, there could be a material effect on our results of operations and a corresponding effect on our funding requirements and capital ratios.
Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 4
Goodwill impairments may be required in relation to acquired businesses.
We have made business acquisitions in the past and may make further acquisitions in the future. It is possible that the goodwill which has been attributed, or may be attributed, to these businesses may have to be written down if our valuation assumptions are required to be reassessed as a result of any deterioration in their underlying profitability, asset quality and other relevant matters. Impairment testing in respect of goodwill is performed annually, or more frequently if there are impairment indicators present, and comprises a comparison of the carrying amount of the cash-generating unit with its recoverable amount. Goodwill impairment does not, however, affect our regulatory capital. There can be no assurances that we will not have to write down the value attributed to goodwill in the future, which would adversely affect our results and net assets.
Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 5
Disclosure controls and procedures over financial and nonfinancial reporting may not prevent or detect all errors or acts of fraud.
Disclosure controls and procedures, including internal controls over financial and nonfinancial reporting, (including any climate-related reporting), are designed to provide reasonable assurance that information required to be disclosed by us in reports filed or submitted under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or the "Exchange Act," is accumulated and communicated to management, and recorded, processed, summarized and reported within the time periods specified in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's rules and forms.
These disclosure controls and procedures have inherent limitations, which include the possibility that judgments in decision-making can be faulty and result in errors or mistakes. Additionally, controls can be circumvented by any unauthorized override of the controls. Consequently, our business is exposed to risk from potential noncompliance with policies, employee misconduct, or negligence and fraud, which could result in regulatory sanctions, civil claims, and serious reputational or financial harm. In recent years, a number of multinational financial institutions have suffered material losses due to the actions of "rogue traders" or other employees. It is not always possible to deter employee error or misconduct, and the precautions we take to prevent and detect this activity may not always be effective. Accordingly, because of the inherent limitations in our control systems, misstatements due to error or fraud may occur and not be detected.
Debt & Financing16 | 20.5%
Debt & Financing - Risk 1
Increases in reserve, compulsory deposit and minimum capital requirements may have a material adverse effect on us.
Compulsory deposit requirements in Brazil require banks to hold part of funding received from customers with the Brazilian Central Bank, which sets these requirements as a means of controlling liquidity in the financial markets and preserving the solvency of financial institutions. The Brazilian Central Bank has periodically changed the level of reserves and compulsory deposits that financial institutions in Brazil are required to maintain, as well as determined compulsory allocation requirements to finance government programs. These changes are a continuing source of risk, as new or an increase in existing reserve and compulsory deposit or allocation requirements, may adversely affect our liquidity and our ability to fund our loan portfolio and other investments and, as a result, may have a material adverse effect on us.
Compulsory deposits and allocations generally do not yield the same return as other investments and deposits because a portion of compulsory deposits and allocations:
- do not bear interest; and - must be used to finance government programs, including a federal housing program and rural sector subsidies.
In recent years, the CMN and Brazilian Central Bank published several rules to implement Basel III in Brazil. This new set of regulations covers the revised definition of capital, capital requirements, capital buffers, credit valuation adjustments, exposures to central counterparties, leverage and liquidity coverage ratios, and treatment of systemically important financial institutions.
For more information on the rules implementing Basel III, see "Item 4. Information on the Company-B. Business Overview-Regulation and Supervision-Capital Adequacy and Leverage – Basel-Basel III" and "Item 5. Operating and Financial Review and Prospects-B. Liquidity and Capital Resources-Liquidity and Funding-Capital Management."
Debt & Financing - Risk 2
Liquidity and funding risks are inherent in our business, and since our main sources of funds are short-term deposits, a sudden shortage of funds could cause an increase in costs of funding and an adverse effect on our revenues and our liquidity levels.
Liquidity risk is the risk that we either do not have sufficient financial resources available to meet our obligations as they fall due, or that we can only secure such financial resources at excessive cost. This risk is inherent in any retail and wholesale banking business and can be heightened by a number of enterprise-specific factors, including overreliance on a particular source of funding, changes in credit ratings or market-wide phenomena such as market dislocation, including as a result of the continuation or escalation of the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East, high energy prices, inflation or other disruptive events. Constraints in the supply of liquidity, including in interbank lending, can materially and adversely affect the cost of funding of our business, and extreme liquidity constraints may affect our current operations, our growth potential and our ability to fulfill regulatory liquidity requirements.
Our cost of obtaining funds is directly related to prevailing interest rates and to our credit spreads, and increases in these factors raise the cost of our funding. Interest rates have been increased primarily as a result of monetary policy decisions taken by central banks and other monetary authorities, and have remained high globally and in Brazil during 2023. We cannot assure you that interest rates will not remain high throughout 2024. Prolonged periods of high inflation are likely to result in higher operating costs, a decrease in the purchasing power of families with the consequent increase in delinquencies in our credit portfolios, and lower economic growth derived from the tightening of monetary and fiscal policies aimed at containing inflation, among other risks, any of which could have a material adverse effect on our operations, financial condition and prospects. In addition, credit spread variations are market-driven and may be influenced by market perceptions of our creditworthiness. Changes to interest rates and our credit spreads occur continuously and may be unpredictable and highly volatile.
Disruption and volatility in the global financial markets could have a material adverse effect on our ability to access capital and liquidity on financial terms acceptable to us. If wholesale markets financing ceases to become available, or becomes excessively expensive, we may be forced to raise the rates we pay on deposits, with a view to attracting more customers, and/or to sell assets, potentially at depressed prices. The persistence or worsening of these adverse market conditions or an increase in base interest rates could have a material adverse effect on our ability to access liquidity and cost of funding.
We rely primarily on deposits as our main source of funding. As of December 31, 2023, 74% of our customer deposits had remaining maturities of one year or less, or were payable on demand, while 44% of our assets had maturities of one year or more, resulting in a mismatch between the maturities of liabilities and the maturities of assets. The ongoing availability of this type of funding is sensitive to a variety of factors beyond our control, including general economic conditions, the confidence of retail depositors in the economy and in the financial services industry, the availability and extent of deposit guarantees, as well as competition for deposits between banks or with other products. Any of these factors could significantly increase the amount of retail deposit withdrawals in a short period of time, thereby reducing our ability to access retail deposit funding on economically appropriate and reasonable terms, or at all, in the future. If these circumstances arise, this could have a material adverse effect on our operating results, financial condition and prospects.
In addition, in the first half of 2023, the liquidity issues faced by Silicon Valley Bank and other banks in the United States, and the issues faced by the Swiss bank Credit Suisse, caused withdrawals of deposits from these banks and volatility in international markets. Central banks took measures designed to guarantee the liquidity of the banking system. Although we do not have material exposure to the affected banks, the spread or potential spread of these or other issues to the broader financial sector could have a material adverse effect on our operating results, financial condition and prospects.
Central banks around the world have taken extraordinary measures to increase liquidity in the financial markets as a response to the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result of inflationary pressures beginning in 2021 and persisting through 2023, central banks have reduced or discontinued these measures. If any remaining credit facilities, which are progressively being reduced, were to be rapidly removed or significantly reduced, this could have a material adverse effect on our ability to access liquidity and on our funding costs. Additionally, our activities could be adversely impacted by liquidity tensions arising from generalized drawdowns of committed credit lines to our customers.
Our ability to manage our funding base may also be affected by changes to the regulation on compulsory reserve requirements in Brazil. For more information on the rules on compulsory reserve requirements, see "Item 4. Information on the Company-B. Business Overview-Regulation and Supervision-Other Applicable Laws and Regulations-Compulsory Reserve Requirements."
We cannot assure that in the event of a sudden or unexpected shortage of funds in the banking system, we will be able to maintain levels of funding without incurring high funding costs, a reduction in the term of funding instruments or the liquidation of certain assets. If this were to happen, we could be materially adversely affected. Finally, the implementation of internationally accepted liquidity ratios might require changes in business practices that affect our profitability. The liquidity coverage ratio, or "LCR," is a liquidity standard that measures if banks have sufficient high-quality liquid assets to cover expected net cash outflows over a 30-day liquidity stress period. For the observations in this disclosure (exercised with daily balances for October, November and December 2023), Santander Brasil had an LCR of 154%, above the 100% minimum requirement. The Net Stable Funding Ratio, or "NSFR," provides a sustainable maturity structure of assets and liabilities so that banks maintain a stable funding profile in relation to their activities. Our NSFR, which must remain at a minimum of 100% beginning from October 1, 2018 according to CMN rules, was 113% as of December 31, 2023.
Debt & Financing - Risk 3
Our cost of funding is affected by our credit ratings, and any risks may have an adverse effect on both variables. Any downgrade in Brazil's, our controlling shareholder's or our credit rating would likely increase our cost of funding, requiring us to post additional collateral under some of our derivative and other contracts and adversely affect our interest margins and results of operations.
Credit ratings affect the cost and other terms upon which we are able to obtain funding. Rating agencies regularly evaluate us, and their ratings of our long-term debt are based on a number of factors, including our financial strength, conditions that affect the financial services industry and the economic environment in which we operate. In addition, due to the methodology of the main rating agencies, our credit rating is affected by the rating of Brazilian sovereign debt and the rating of our controlling shareholder. If Brazil's sovereign debt or the debt of our controlling shareholder were to be downgraded, our credit rating would also likely be downgraded to a similar degree.
Any downgrade in Brazil's sovereign credit ratings, those of our controlling shareholder, or in our ratings, would likely increase our borrowing costs. For example, a rating downgrade could adversely affect our ability to sell or trade some of our products, such as subordinated securities, engage in certain longer-term and derivatives transactions, and retain our customers, particularly customers who need a minimum rating threshold in order to invest. In addition, under the terms of certain derivative contracts and other financial commitments, we may be required to maintain a minimum credit rating or risk termination of such contracts or require the posting of collateral. Any of these results of a ratings downgrade could reduce our liquidity and have an adverse effect on us, including our operating results and financial condition.
While certain potential impacts of these downgrades are contractual and quantifiable, the full consequences of a credit rating downgrade are inherently uncertain, as they depend on numerous dynamic, complex and interrelated factors and assumptions, including market conditions at the time of any downgrade, whether the downgrade of our long-term credit rating indirectly downgrades our short-term credit rating, and assumptions about the potential behaviors of various customers, investors and counterparties. Actual outflows could be higher or lower than any hypothetical examples, depending upon certain factors, including the credit rating agency issuing the downgrade, any management or restructuring actions that could be taken to reduce cash outflows, and the potential liquidity impact from loss of unsecured funding (such as from money market funds) or loss of secured funding capacity. Although unsecured and secured funding stresses are included in our stress-testing scenarios and a portion of our total liquid assets is held against these risks, a credit rating downgrade could still have a material adverse effect on us.
Santander Spain's long-term debt in foreign currency is currently rated investment grade by the major rating agencies: A2 stable outlook by Moody's, A+ with a stable outlook by S&P and A- with a stable outlook by Fitch. Santander Brasil's long-term debt in foreign currency is currently rated BB with a stable outlook by S&P and Ba1 with a stable outlook by Moody's and was affected as a result of the lowering of Brazil's sovereign credit rating. Any further downgrade in our long-term debt in foreign currency, including as a result of adverse economic conditions in Brazil or globally (such as those caused by the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East), would likely increase our funding costs and adversely affect our interest margins and results of operations.
We cannot assure that the rating agencies will maintain their current ratings or outlooks. In general, the future evolution of our ratings will be linked, to a large extent, to the general macroeconomic outlook which includes the impact of the continuation or escalation of the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East, inflation and interest rates on our asset quality, profitability and capital, as well as on the rating of Santander Spain. Our failure to maintain favorable ratings and outlooks would likely increase our cost of funding and adversely affect our interest margins and results of operations.
Debt & Financing - Risk 4
The effectiveness of our credit risk management is affected by the quality and scope of information available in Brazil.
In assessing customers' creditworthiness, we rely largely on the credit information available from our own internal databases, certain publicly available customer credit information, information relating to credit contracted, which is provided by the Brazilian Central Bank, and other sources. Due to limitations in the availability of information and the developing information infrastructure in Brazil, our assessment of credit risk associated with a particular customer may not be based on complete, accurate or reliable information. In addition, we cannot assure that our credit scoring systems collect complete or accurate information reflecting the actual behavior of customers or that their credit risk can be assessed correctly. Without complete, accurate and reliable information, we have to rely on other publicly available resources and our internal resources, which may not be effective. As a result, our ability to effectively manage our credit risk and subsequently our allowances for impairment losses may be materially adversely affected.
Debt & Financing - Risk 5
Our hedging strategy may not be able to prevent losses.
We use a range of strategies and instruments, including entering into derivative and other transactions, to hedge our exposure to market, credit and operational risks. Nevertheless, we may not be able to hedge all risks to which we are exposed, whether partially or in full. Furthermore, the hedging strategies and instruments on which we rely may not achieve their intended purpose. Any failure in our hedging strategy or in the hedging instruments on which we rely could result in losses to us and have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.
Debt & Financing - Risk 6
The value of the collateral securing our loans may not be sufficient, and we may be unable to realize the full value of the collateral securing our loan portfolio.
The value of the collateral securing our loan portfolio may fluctuate or decline due to factors beyond our control, including as a result of macroeconomic factors, especially those affecting Brazil, or the continuation or escalation of the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East as well as force majeure events, such as natural disasters (including as a result of climate change). We may also not have sufficiently recent information on the value of collateral, which may result in an inaccurate assessment for impairment losses of our loans secured by such collateral. If any of the above were to occur, we may need to make additional provisions to cover actual impairment losses of our loans, which may materially and adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
Debt & Financing - Risk 7
We may face significant challenges in possessing and realizing value from collateral with respect to loans in default.
If we are unable to recover sums owed to us under secured loans in default through extrajudicial measures such as restructurings, our last recourse with respect to such loans may be to enforce the collateral secured in our favor by the applicable borrower. Depending on the type of collateral granted, we either have to enforce such collateral through the courts or through extrajudicial measures. However, even where the enforcement mechanism is duly established by applicable law, Brazilian law allows borrowers to challenge the enforcement in the courts, even if such challenge is unfounded, which can delay the realization of value from the collateral. In addition, our secured claims under Brazilian law will in certain cases rank below those of preferred creditors such as employees and tax authorities. As a result, we may not be able to realize value from the collateral or may only be able to do so to a limited extent or after a significant amount of time, thereby potentially adversely affecting our financial condition and results of operations.
Debt & Financing - Risk 8
We are subject to market, operational and other related risks associated with our derivative transactions and our investment positions that could have a material adverse effect on us.
We enter into derivative transactions for trading purposes, as well as for hedging purposes. We are subject to market, credit and operational risks associated with these transactions, including basis risk (the risk of loss associated with variations in the spread between the asset yield and the funding and/or hedge cost) and credit or default risk (the risk of insolvency or other inability of the counterparty to a particular transaction to perform its obligations thereunder, including providing sufficient collateral). We also hold securities in our own portfolio as part of our investment and hedging strategies.
Financial instruments, including derivative instruments and securities, represented 91.0% of our total assets as of December 31, 2023. As of December 31, 2023, the notional value of derivatives in our books amounted to R$2,325 billion (with a market value of R$29,295 million of assets and R$24,940 million of liabilities).
Any realized or unrealized future gains or losses from these investments or hedging strategies could have a significant impact on our income. These gains and losses, which we account for when we sell or mark to market investments in financial instruments, can vary considerably from one period to another. If, for example, we enter into derivatives transactions to protect ourselves against decreases in the value of the real or in interest rates and the real instead increases in value or interest rates increase, we may incur financial losses. We cannot forecast the amount of gains or losses in any future period, and the variations experienced from one period to another do not necessarily provide a meaningful forward-looking reference point. Gains or losses in our investment portfolio may create volatility in net revenue levels, and we may not earn a return on our consolidated investment portfolio or on a part of the portfolio in the future. Any losses on our securities and derivative financial instruments could materially and adversely affect our operating income and financial condition. In addition, any decrease in the value of these securities and derivatives portfolios may result in a decrease in our capital ratios, which could impair our ability to engage in lending activity at the levels we currently anticipate.
The execution and performance of these transactions depend on our ability to maintain adequate control and administration systems. Our ability to adequately monitor, analyze and report derivative transactions continues to depend, largely, on our information technology systems. These factors further increase the risks associated with these transactions and could have a material adverse effect on us.
Debt & Financing - Risk 9
Exposure to Brazilian federal government debt could have a material adverse effect on us.
We invest in Brazilian federal government bonds. As of December 31, 2023, approximately 13.3% of our total assets, and 60.9% of our securities portfolio, consisted of debt securities issued by the Brazilian federal government. Any failure by the Brazilian government to make timely payments under the terms of these securities, or a significant decrease in their market value, will have a material adverse effect on us.
Debt & Financing - Risk 10
Fluctuations in interest rates and other factors may affect our obligations under legacy employee pension funds.
We sponsor defined benefit pension plans and a healthcare plan for former and current employees, most of which were inherited from legacy plans and/or the acquisition of other banks (though we discontinued the use of defined benefit pension plans for our employees in 2005). In order to determine our current obligations, we use actuarial methods and assumptions that are inherently uncertain and involve the exercise of significant judgment, including with respect to interest rates, which are one of the most important variables used in determining our current pension obligations.
Changes in the present value of our obligations under our legacy defined benefit pension plans could require us to increase contributions, which would divert resources from use in other areas of our business. Any such increase may be due to factors over which we have no or limited control. Increases in our pension liabilities and obligations could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.
Decreases in interest rates can increase the present value of obligations under our legacy defined benefit pension plans and lifetime medical assistance plan, which contributed to the increase of our provisions in R$0.7 billion in 2023, compared to a decrease R$0.9 billion in 2022. Increases in interest rates have the contrary effect.
As of December 31, 2023 our provisions for pensions and similar obligations totaled R$2.5 billion (out of total provisions for legal and administrative proceedings, commitments, pensions and other matters of R$11.5 billion). For additional information, see note 21 to our audited consolidated financial statements included in this annual report.
Debt & Financing - Risk 11
Past performance of our loan portfolio may not be indicative of future performance; changes in the profile of our business may adversely affect our loan portfolio. In addition, the value of any collateral securing our loans may not be sufficient, and we may be unable to realize the full value of the collateral securing our loan portfolio.
Our historical loan loss experience may not be indicative of our future loan losses. While the quality of our loan portfolio is associated with the default risk in the sectors in which we operate, changes in our business profile may occur due to, among other factors, our organic growth, merger and acquisition activity, changes in local economic and political conditions, a slowdown in customer demand, an increase in market competition, changes in regulation and in the tax regimes applicable to the sectors in which we operate and, to a lesser extent, other related changes in countries in which we operate and in the international economic environment. In addition, the market value of any collateral related to our loan portfolio may fluctuate, from the time we evaluate it at the beginning of the trade to the time such collateral can be executed upon, due to the factors related to changes in economic, political or sectorial factors beyond our control, and we may be unable to realize the full value of the collateral securing our loan portfolio.
Debt & Financing - Risk 12
Our loan and investment portfolios are subject to risk of prepayment, which could have a material adverse effect on us.
Our fixed-rate loan and investment portfolios are subject to prepayment risk, which results from the ability of a borrower or issuer to pay a debt obligation prior to maturity. Prepayments would also require us to amortize net premiums or commissions into income over a shorter period of time, thereby reducing the corresponding asset yield and net interest income. Prepayment risk also has a significant adverse impact on mortgages and other loans, since prepayments could shorten the weighted average life of these assets, which may result in a mismatch in our funding obligations and reinvestment at lower yields.
Prepayment risk is inherent to our commercial activity and could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. An increase in prepayments, in particular should the prevailing interest rates decrease from the rates in effect as of the date of this annual report, could have a material adverse effect on us.
Debt & Financing - Risk 13
The credit quality of our loan portfolio may deteriorate and our loan loss reserves could be insufficient to cover our loan losses, which could have a material adverse effect on us.
Risks arising from changes in credit quality and the recoverability of loans and amounts due from counterparties are inherent to a wide range of our businesses. Nonperforming or low credit quality loans can negatively impact our results of operations as the amount of our reported nonperforming loans may increase in the future as a result of growth in our total loan portfolio, including as a result of loan portfolios that we may acquire in the future (the credit quality of which may turn out to be worse than we had anticipated), or other factors, including factors beyond our control, such as adverse changes in the credit quality of our borrowers and counterparties or a general deterioration in economic conditions in Brazil and globally, including as a result of the continuation or escalation of the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East. In addition, the combined pressure of challenging macroeconomic conditions, high inflation and high interest rates may impact the ability of our customers to repay their debt. If we were unable to control the level of our credit impaired or poor credit quality loans, this could have a material adverse effect on us.
Our provisions for impairment losses are based on our current assessment, as well as expectations, concerning various factors affecting the quality of our loan portfolio. These factors include, among other things, our borrowers' financial condition, repayment abilities intentions, the realizable value of any collateral, the prospects for support from any guarantor, government macroeconomic policies, interest rates, and the legal and regulatory environment.
Since many of these factors are beyond our control and there is no infallible method for predicting loan and credit losses, there is no assurance that our current or future provisions for impairment losses will be sufficient to cover actual losses. If our assessment of and expectations concerning the abovementioned factors differ from actual developments, if the quality of our total loan portfolio deteriorates, for any reason, or if the future actual losses exceed our estimates of incurred losses, we may be required to increase our provisions for impairment losses, which may adversely affect us. If we were unable to control or reduce the level of our nonperforming or poor credit quality loans, this could have a material adverse effect on us.
On December 31, 2023, our credit risk exposure (which includes gross loans and advances to customers, guarantees and private securities (securities issued by nongovernmental entities) amounted R$719,881 million (compared to R$664,537 million as of December 31, 2022). For further information, see "Item 3. Key Information-A. Selected Financial Data-Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures and Ratios to Their Most Directly Comparable IFRS Financial Measures."
Debt & Financing - Risk 14
Our financial results are constantly exposed to market risk. We are subject to fluctuations in interest rates and other market risks, which may materially and adversely affect us and our profitability.
Market risk refers to the probability of variations in our interest income/(charges) or in the market value of our assets and liabilities due to volatility of interest rate, inflation, exchange rate, commodity price or equity price.
Changes in interest rates affect the following areas, among others, of our business:
- interest income/(charges);- the volume of loans originated;- credit spreads;- the market value of our securities holdings;- the value of our loans and deposits; and - the value of our derivatives transactions.
Interest rates are sensitive to many factors beyond our control, including increased regulation of the financial sector, monetary policies and domestic and international economic and political conditions. Variations in interest rates could affect the interest earned on our assets and the interest paid on our borrowings, thereby affecting our interest income/(charges), which comprises the majority of our revenue, reducing our growth rate and potentially resulting in losses. In addition, costs we incur as we implement strategies to reduce interest rate exposure could increase in the future (which, in turn, will impact our results).
Increases in interest rates may reduce the volume of loans we originate. Sustained high interest rates have historically discouraged customers from borrowing and have resulted in increased or fluctuations in delinquencies in outstanding loans and deterioration in the quality of assets. Increases in interest rates may reduce the value of our financial assets and may reduce gains or require us to record losses on sales of our loans or securities. In particular, certain assets are constantly marked-to-market and are therefore affected by changes in prevailing interest rates. This process may result in significant reductions in book values and to impairment losses. Additionally, a shrinking yield premium between short-term and long-term market interest rates coupled with inflation could adversely affect our business and results of operations.
Conversely, a decrease in interest rates may reduce the rates on many of our interest-bearing deposit products. However, even with a possible reduction of the rates on our interest-bearing deposit products as a result of a decrease in the SELIC rate, the total impact on our interest margin will depend, among other factors, on the difference between medium and long-term interest rates compared to overnight rates. In particular, an inverted yield curve in a high interest rate environment may adversely impact our interest-bearing products, and if such a scenario were to persist, may adversely affect our results of operations.
We are also exposed to foreign exchange rate risk as a result of mismatches between assets and liabilities denominated in different currencies. Fluctuations in the exchange rate between currencies may negatively affect our earnings and value of our assets and securities.
We are also exposed to equity price risk in our investments in equity securities in the banking book and in the trading portfolio. The performance of financial markets may cause changes in the value of our investment and trading portfolios. The volatility of world equity markets due to the continued economic uncertainty and sovereign debt crisis has had a particularly strong impact on the financial sector. Continued volatility may affect the value of our investments in equity securities and, depending on their fair value and future recovery expectations, could become a permanent impairment which would be subject to write-offs against our results.
Our financial results are constantly exposed to market risk. In 2022 and 2023, inflationary pressures, increases in the prices of energy, oil, gas and other commodities, the continuance or escalation of the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have caused and may continue to cause significant market volatility which may materially and adversely affect us and our trading and banking book.
Debt & Financing - Risk 15
The liquidity and market prices of the units and the ADRs may be adversely affected by the cancellation of units or substantial sale of units and shares in the market, or by the relative volatility and limited liquidity of the Brazilian securities markets.
Holders of units may present these units or some of these units for cancellation in Brazil in exchange for the common shares and preferred shares underlying these units. If unit holders present a significant number of units for cancellation in exchange for the underlying common shares and preferred shares, the liquidity and price of the units and ADRs may be materially and adversely affected.
Also, sales of a substantial number of our units, common shares or preferred shares in the future, or the anticipation of such sales, could negatively affect the market prices of our units and ADRs. If, in the future, substantial sales of units, common shares or preferred shares are made by existing or future holders, the market prices of the ADRs may decrease significantly. As a result, holders of ADRs may not be able to sell their ADRs at or above the price they paid for them.
Debt & Financing - Risk 16
We engage in transactions with related parties that others may not consider to be on an arm's-length basis.
We and our affiliates have entered into a number of services agreements pursuant to which we render and/or receive services, such as administrative, accounting, consulting, finance, treasury, legal services and others from (or provide such services to) related parties. We are likely to continue to engage in transactions with such related parties (including our controlling shareholder) that others may not consider to be on an arm's-length basis. Future conflicts of interests may arise between us and any of our affiliates, or among our affiliates, which may not be resolved in our favor. See "Item 7. Major Shareholders and Related Party Transactions-B. Related Party Transactions."
Corporate Activity and Growth3 | 3.8%
Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 1
We plan to continue to expand our operations and we may not be able to manage such growth effectively, or to execute successfully any of our strategic actions, which could have an adverse impact on us, including on our profitability. We may also not be successful in any reorganizations, dispositions or spin-offs we undertake.
We allocate management and planning resources to develop strategic plans for organic growth and to identify possible acquisitions and disposals and areas for restructuring our businesses. From time to time, we evaluate acquisition and partnership opportunities that can offer additional value to our shareholders and are consistent with our business strategy. However, we may not be able to identify suitable acquisition or partnership candidates, and our ability to benefit from any such acquisitions and partnerships will depend in part on our successful integration of those businesses. Any such integration entails significant risks such as unforeseen difficulties in integrating operations and systems and unexpected liabilities or contingencies relating to the acquired businesses, including legal claims. We cannot provide assurance that we will, in all cases, be able to manage our growth effectively or deliver our strategic growth objectives. Challenges that may result from our strategic growth decisions include our ability to:
- manage efficiently the operations and employees of expanding businesses;- maintain or grow our existing customer base;- assess the value, strengths and weaknesses of investment or acquisition candidates, including local regulation that can reduce or eliminate expected synergies;- finance and integrate strategic investments or acquisitions;- align our current information technology systems adequately with those of an enlarged group;- apply our risk management policy effectively to an enlarged group; and - manage a growing number of entities without overcommitting management or losing key personnel.
Any failure to manage growth effectively, or to execute successfully any of our strategic actions, could have a material adverse effect on our operating results, financial condition and prospects. In addition, any acquisition or venture could result in the loss of key employees and inconsistencies in standards, controls, procedures and policies. Moreover, the success of the acquisition or venture will at least in part be subject to a number of political, economic and other factors that are beyond our control. Any of these factors, individually or collectively, could have a material adverse effect on us.
Similarly, we cannot ensure that we will be able to successfully divest or spin off businesses or other assets that we have identified for this purpose, or that any completed divestment or spin-off will achieve the expected strategic benefits, operational efficiencies or opportunities, or that the divestment or spin-off will ultimately maximize shareholder value.
Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 2
We may not realize the anticipated benefits from the Spin-Off, and the Spin-Off could harm our business.
We completed the Spin-Off of our merchant acquiring business, conducted through Getnet and its consolidated subsidiaries, in October 2021. We cannot assure you that the Spin-Off will achieve the expected strategic benefits, operational efficiencies or opportunities we envisaged, or that it will ultimately maximize shareholder value.
Furthermore, on April 15, 2021, we entered into the Getnet Partnership Agreement with Getnet, which provides a framework for our relationship with Getnet following the Spin-Off. Pursuant to the Partnership Agreement, both parties have the right to terminate the Partnership Agreement at will, upon one year's prior written notice to the other party. In case of fault by the other party, as described by the Partnership Agreement, such as due to insolvency, bankruptcy or loss of material license, among others, the non-defaulting party is free to terminate the Partnership Agreement by means of a simple notification sent to the other party. We may suffer a material adverse effect if the Getnet Partnership Agreement is terminated or not renewed, or if we are unable to enter into a favorable agreement with a new partner in the event of termination of the Getnet Partnership Agreement. For additional information, see "Item 4. Information on the Company-A. History and Development of the Company-Important Events-Spin-Off of Getnet" and notes 3, 13 and 27 to our audited consolidated financial statements included elsewhere in this annual report.
Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 3
Failure to successfully implement and continue to improve our risk management policies, procedures and methods, including our credit risk management systems, could materially and adversely affect us, and we may be exposed to unidentified or unanticipated risks.
Risk management is a central part of our activities. We seek to manage and control our risk exposure through a forward-looking management model, based on governance and other tools, supported by our risk culture. While our management model uses a broad and diversified set of risk monitoring and mitigation techniques, such management model may not be fully effective at mitigating our risk exposure in all economic market environments or against all types of risk, including risks that we may fail to identify or anticipate.
We use certain qualitative tools and metrics for managing market risk, including our use of value at risk, or "VaR," and statistical modeling tools, which are based on our use of observed historical market behavior. We apply statistical and other tools to these observations to arrive at quantifications of our risk exposures. These tools and metrics may fail to predict future risk exposures. These risk exposures could, for example, arise from factors we did not anticipate or correctly evaluate in our statistical models. This would limit our ability to manage our risks. Thus, our losses could be significantly higher than the historical measures indicate. In addition, our statistical models may not take all risks into account or measure emerging risks correctly. Our approach to managing risks could prove insufficient, exposing us to material unanticipated losses. We could face adverse consequences as a result of decisions, which may lead management, based on models that are poorly developed, implemented or used, or as a result of the modeled outcome, to misunderstand or misuse such information for purposes for which it was not designed. In addition, if existing or potential customers or counterparties believe that our risk management is inadequate, they could take their business elsewhere or seek to limit their transactions with us. Any of these factors could have a material adverse effect on our reputation, as well as our revenues and profits. We also face risks from operational losses that may occur due to inadequate processes, people and systems failures or even from external events like natural disasters, terrorism, robbery and vandalism. Despite the operational risk management process supported by the Board of Directors and the internal audit tests, the internal controls and procedures effectiveness may not be fully adequate or sufficient to avoid all the known and unknown operational risks. We have suffered losses from operational risk in the past, including losses related to the migration of customer accounts in connection with acquisitions, phishing scams perpetuated by third parties and information system platform upgrades. There can be no assurance that we will not suffer material losses from operational risk in the future, including losses related to security breaches.
As a retail bank, one of the main types of risks inherent in our business is credit risk. For example, an important feature of our credit risk management system is to employ an internal credit rating to assess the particular risk profile of individual customers and SMEs. As this process involves detailed analyses of the customer, taking into account both quantitative and qualitative factors, it is subject to human or IT systems errors. In exercising their judgment on our customers' current or future credit risk behavior, our management models may not always be able to assign an accurate credit rating, which may result in a higher exposure to credit risks than indicated by our risk rating system.
Some of the models and other analytical and judgment-based estimations we use in managing risks are subject to review by, and require the approval of, our regulators. If models do not comply with all their expectations, our regulators may require us to make changes to such models or may approve them with additional capital requirements, or we may be precluded from using them. Any of these potential situations could limit our ability to expand our businesses or have a material impact on our financial results.
Failure to effectively implement, consistently monitor or continuously improve our credit risk management system may result in an increase in the level of nonperforming loans and a higher risk exposure for us, which could have a material adverse effect on us. In addition, failure to successfully execute any of our decisions and actions affecting or changing our practices, operations, priorities, strategies, policies, procedures, or frameworks, could have a material adverse effect on us.
Macro & Political
Total Risks: 19/78 (24%)Above Sector Average
Economy & Political Environment11 | 14.1%
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 1
Economic uncertainty may lead to a contraction in our loan portfolio.
Brazil has historically registered a slow GDP growth rate compared with the rhythm seen in other emerging markets. However, the average GDP growth rate between 2021 and 2023 (3.6% per annum) was higher than the growth rate between 2020 and 2022 (1.4% per annum) as a result of fiscal stimulus and growth in the agribusiness sector in the last few years. This pattern, as well as a slowdown in the growth of customer demand, an increase in market competition, changes in governmental regulation, a recent increase of the SELIC rate, as well as a recession in 2016 have adversely affected the rate of growth of our loan portfolio in recent years. Ongoing economic uncertainty could adversely affect the liquidity, businesses and financial condition of our customers, as well as lead to a general decline in consumer spending, a rise in unemployment and an increase in household indebtedness. All of these factors could lead to a decrease in demand for borrowings in general, which could have a material adverse effect on our business.
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 2
The economic value of your investment may be diluted.
We may, from time to time, need additional funds, and we may issue additional units or shares. Any additional funds obtained by such a capital increase may dilute your interest in our Company or decrease the market price of our shares, units or ADRs.
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 3
Social and environmental risks may have a material adverse effect on us.
As part of the risk analysis that we conduct with respect to our customers, some of the risk factors which we consider include environmental aspects (such as soil and groundwater contamination, deforestation, or absence of environmental permits) and social aspects (such as the existence of working conditions akin to slavery or impacts on indigenous people from projects) and, most recently, climate aspects, with a focus on physical and transition risks. Any failure or noncompliance by us to identify and accurately assess these factors and the potential risks to us before entering into proposed transactions with our customers may result in damage to our image and reputation, as well as have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Moreover, we are exposed to the risk that our assessment that a product or service we provide, or an investment that we have made, is socially or environmentally responsible, will be challenged by customers, regulators or third parties. There has been increased investor and regulatory focus on environmental, social and governance, or ESG-related practices of financial institutions. A growing interest on the part of investors and regulators in ESG factors, and increased demand for, and scrutiny of, ESG-related disclosures by financial institutions, has likewise increased the risk that we could be perceived as, or accused of, making inaccurate or misleading statements regarding the investment strategies of our self-managed investment funds, or our and our funds' ESG efforts or initiatives, commonly referred to as "greenwashing." Such perceptions or accusations could damage our reputation, result in litigation or regulatory enforcement actions, and adversely affect our business.
Furthermore, the Brazilian Central Bank has recently issued new regulations and standards applicable to us relating to the management and governance of social, environmental and climate risks by financial institutions. These rules relate both to risks resulting from our products, services and activities, and to risks arising out of the activities of our counterparties, controlled entities, suppliers and outsourced service providers. Most of these regulations have been in effect since July 2022. Any failure or noncompliance by us to adequately identify and assess these risks may subject us to future sanctions by the Brazilian Central Bank, as well as have a material adverse impact on our business and financial condition. For more information on the new regulatory requirements issued by the Brazilian Central Bank relating to ESG requirements applicable to Brazilian financial institutions, see "Item 4. Information on the Company-B. Business Overview-Regulation and Supervision-Other Applicable Laws and Regulations- ESG Requirements Applicable to Financial Institutions."
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 4
A global economic downturn could have a material adverse effect on us.
The global macroeconomic environment is facing challenges, including the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, economic setbacks deriving from the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, high energy prices and inflation. There is considerable uncertainty over the effects of the tight monetary policies adopted by the central banks and financial authorities of some of the world's leading economies, including the United States, which may result in GDP contractions across major economies in the short and medium term.
In 2022, the war between Russia and Ukraine contributed to further increases in the prices of energy, oil and other commodities and to volatility in financial markets globally, as well as a new landscape in relation to international sanctions. There have also been concerns over conflicts, unrest and terrorist threats in the Middle East, Europe and Africa, which have resulted in volatility in oil and other markets. The United States and China are involved in controversies related to trade barriers in China that have threatened a trade war between the countries, which have implemented or proposed to implement tariffs on certain imported products. Tensions have also arisen between the United States and China over the future of Taiwan. Sustained tension between the United States and China could significantly undermine the stability of the global economy. In addition, on October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an attack on Israel killing hundreds of Israeli civilians. In response, Israel declared war against Hamas, targeting the Gaza Strip. The war is causing a humanitarian crisis and could lead to an escalation of the conflict in the region, rise in oil and gas prices, more inflationary pressures and market volatility, among others. It is unclear whether these challenges and uncertainties will be contained or resolved, and what effects they may have on the global political and economic conditions in the long term.
Pandemics, epidemics or outbreaks of infectious diseases can have an adverse effect on the global market and economy, as well as on our operations. Historically, some epidemics and regional or global outbreaks, such as Zika virus, Ebola virus, H5N5 virus (popularly known as avian influenza), foot-and-mouth disease, H1N1 virus (influenza A, popularly known as swine flu), middle east respiratory syndrome (MERS), severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and dengue fever have affected certain sectors of the economy in the countries where these diseases have spread. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization, or "WHO," declared that the COVID-19 epidemic rose to the level of a pandemic. This declaration triggered severe measures by government officials around the world with the aim of controlling the spread of COVID-19, including restrictions on the flow of people, with limitations on travel, use of public transport, quarantines and lockdowns, prolonged closure of commercial establishments, interruptions in the supply chain and reduction of consumption in general. These measures, combined with the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, had an adverse impact on the economy and the global capital market, including Brazil, including causing eight circuit breakers in B3 negotiations throughout March 2020. The prices of most of the assets traded on B3 were adversely affected due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts similar to these may reoccur, causing the prices of securities traded on the B3 to fluctuate.
Scenarios of political tensions and instability throughout the world stemming from a variety of factors such as heightened polarization and political fragmentation, may lead to shifting and unpredictable outcomes in political elections, legislative and policy-making efforts, social conditions and the global economy, could erode the rule of law in certain long-standing democracies. Furthermore, increasing public debt levels together with rising interest costs may not be sustainable, which could lead certain countries into sovereign debt crises. The upcoming presidential elections in the United States may also bring additional volatility to financial markets, affecting the price of securities, interest rates and exchange rates. A deterioration of the global economic, political and financial environment, particularly in Europe and the Americas, could have a material adverse impact on the financial sector, affecting our operating results, financial position and prospects.
Moreover, the risk of returning to a fragile and volatile environment and to heightened political tensions could be aggravated if, among others, the policies implemented to contain inflation do not succeed, the reforms aimed at improving productivity and competition fail, the banking union and other measures of European integration do not take hold or anti-European groups become more widespread. A deterioration of the economic and financial environment in Europe could have a material adverse impact on the global economy, affecting our operating results, financial position and prospects.
In addition, growing protectionism and trade tensions, such as the tensions between the United States and China in recent years, could have a negative impact on the global economy, which would also impact our operating results, financial condition and prospects. China's deceleration based on structural low economic growth coupled with real estate distress and slow population growth could negatively affect the world economy which would also impact our operating results, financial condition and prospects.
Additionally, on January 31, 2020, the UK ceased to be a member of the EU. A trade deal was agreed between the UK and the EU prior to the end of the transition period and the new regulations came into force on January 1, 2021. Uncertainty remains around the terms of the UK's relationship with the European Union and the lack of a fully comprehensive trade agreement may negatively impact the economic growth of both regions. Similarly, an adverse effect on the UK and the European Union may have an adverse effect on the wider global economy or market conditions and investor confidence. This could, in turn, have a material adverse effect on our operations, financial condition and prospects and/or the market value of our securities.
Any material changes in the economy and the global capital market, including Brazil, may decrease the interest of investors in Brazilian assets, including our ADRs, which may adversely affect the market price of our securities, in addition to making it difficult for us to access the capital markets and finance our operations, including on acceptable terms.
Any slowdown or instability in the global economy could impact income, purchasing power and consumption levels in Brazil, among other things, which could limit growth, increase delinquency rates and ultimately have a material adverse effect on us while also creating a more volatile economy, limiting potential access to capital and liquidity. In addition, any global economic slowdown or uncertainty may result in volatile conditions in the global financial markets, which could have a material adverse effect on us, including on our ability to access capital and liquidity on financial terms acceptable to us, if at all. Any such adverse effect on capital markets funding availability or costs or in deposit rates could have a material adverse effect on our interest margins and liquidity.
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 5
Infrastructure, workforce deficiency and other factors in Brazil may impact economic growth and have a material adverse effect on us.
Our performance depends on the overall health and growth of the Brazilian economy. Brazilian GDP growth has fluctuated over the past few years. In 2020, Brazilian GDP contracted by 3.3% as a result of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and despite the significant economic support measures put in place by the Brazilian government (although it is believed that these measures averted an even stronger contraction). In 2021, the extension of income support programs and the relaxation of certain mobility restrictions that allowed some businesses to resume their activities boosted the industrial and services sectors and resulted in GDP growth of 4.8% in 2021. This level of growth was in part due to a low basis of comparison given the significant contraction in GDP in 2020 (against which 2021 growth was measured), an effect which was not present in 2022 and helps explain the deceleration of GDP growth in 2022 to 3.0% despite the significant volume of fiscal stimulus. We estimate that GDP growth decreased further in 2023 to 2.9%. The growth and performance of the Brazilian economy may be impacted by other factors such as nationwide strikes, natural disasters, pandemics or other disruptive events. Any of these factors could lead to labor market volatility and generally impact income, purchasing power and consumption levels, which could limit growth, increase delinquency rates and ultimately have a material adverse effect on us.
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 6
Changed
The Brazilian government has exercised significant influence over the Brazilian economy. The Brazilian government's macroeconomic management strategies, as well as political and economic conditions, could adversely affect us and the trading price of our securities.
We and the trading price of our securities may be adversely affected by changes in policy, laws or regulations at the federal, state and municipal levels involving or affecting factors such as:
- interest rates;- currency volatility;- inflation;- reserve requirements;- capital requirements;- liquidity of capital and lending markets;- nonperforming loans;- tax policies;- the regulatory framework governing our industry;- exchange rate controls and restrictions on remittances abroad; and - other political, social and economic developments in or affecting Brazil.
In the past, the Brazilian government has intervened in the economy and has on occasion made significant changes in policy and regulations, including, among others, changes in regulations, price controls, capital controls, changes in the exchange rate regime, and limitations on imports, which have affected Brazilian asset prices. Recently, the Brazilian government and the Brazilian Congress have adopted important measures, such as changes in tax policies, and constraints that have affected and could affect the price of our securities.
Uncertainty over whether the Brazilian government will continue to implement changes in policy or regulation creates instability in the Brazilian economy, increasing the volatility of the Brazilian securities markets, which may have an adverse effect on us and our securities. As a result, the prices of Brazilian financial assets have experienced a high level of volatility in 2023. We cannot assure you that Brazilian financial markets will not experience significant volatility going forward. Economic and political developments in Brazil may also affect the business of the Brazilian financial industry.
We are not able to fully estimate the impact of global and Brazilian political and macroeconomic developments and economic regulatory policy changes on our business and lending activity, nor are we able to predict how current or future measures implemented by regulatory policymakers may impact our business. In addition, there is uncertainty regarding future economic measures which the incumbent administration may implement and which could affect the economy or our business or financial performance. Any changes in regulatory capital requirements for lending, reserve requirements, or product and service regulations, among others, may materially adversely affect our business.
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 7
Changed
The political environment in Brazil may adversely affect Brazil's economy and investment levels and have a material adverse effect on us.
Brazil's political environment has historically influenced, and continues to influence, the performance of the country's economy by impacting the confidence of investors and the general public, which has resulted in economic deceleration and heightened volatility in the securities issued by Brazilian companies.
As mentioned, there are uncertainties regarding the policies to be followed by the incumbent government, the ability of this administration to continue implementing policies and reforms, as well as the external perception of the Brazilian economy and political environment, all of which could have a negative impact on our business and the price of our securities. In addition, although the tax reform on duties levied on consumption was approved by the Brazilian Congress in 2023, it will require the approval of additional legislation by the lawmakers in 2024 to be fully implemented by the Brazilian government. A new round of tax reforms is also expected to be presented to the Brazilian Congress by the Brazilian government in 2024, including the revocation of the income tax exemption on the payment of dividends, which, if enacted, would increase the tax expenses associated with any dividend or distribution by Brazilian companies and could impact our capacity to receive future cash dividends or distributions net of taxes from our subsidiaries. The incumbent administration has stated that this proposed reform is among their priorities, along with other economic reforms. Any such new policies or changes to current policies may have a material adverse effect on us.
Furthermore, expenditures by the Brazilian federal government have historically led to fiscal deficits at the federal level, resulting in seven straight years of deficits between 2014 and 2020. However, the Brazilian federal government recorded a budget surplus in 2021 and 2022, due in part to rising commodity prices and higher inflation. In 2023, as commodity prices stabilized, inflation receded and cyclical activities slowed down, government revenue also decreased, while expenditures continued to rise, resulting in a budget deficit. The Brazilian government may face a challenging fiscal environment despite the approval of a new fiscal framework in 2023. Similarly, the governments of Brazil's constituent states are also facing fiscal concerns due to their high debt burdens (particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic and the need for the Brazilian government to fund extensive economic relief programs), declining revenues and inflexible expenditures.
The uncertainties regarding the implementation of the Brazilian government's agenda, considering the scenario of 2024 (including municipal elections, the coming elections of the presidencies in the senate and the lower house in 2025, the relationship between the executive, legislative and judiciary branches and the relationships among the leading political parties) and changes related to monetary, fiscal and social security policies could affect the Brazilian economy. Any such developments may contribute to economic instability in Brazil and increase the volatility of securities issued by Brazilian companies, including our securities.
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 8
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Our growth, asset quality and profitability, among others, may be adversely affected by a slowdown in Brazil, volatile macroeconomic and political conditions and persistent high inflation.
A slowdown or recession in Brazil and other major world economies could lead major financial institutions, including some of the world's largest global commercial banks, investment banks, mortgage lenders, mortgage guarantors and insurance companies, to experience significant difficulties, including runs on deposits, the need for government aid or assistance or the need to reduce or cease providing funding to borrowers (including to other financial institutions). The year 2021 was marked by an accelerated recovery in the level of activity in the main global economies, as a result of the expansionary monetary and fiscal policy, including reductions in interest rates. As a result, inflation rates in 2021 and 2022 have increased considerably in Brazil and globally, due to the strong increase in aggregate demand and bottlenecks in supply and production chains due to shortages of inputs.
In Brazil, this process of generalized increase in prices was intensified by the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar and other leading currencies, leading the Brazilian Central Bank to increase the SELIC rate from 2.0% at the end of 2020 to 13.75% at the end of 2022. The SELIC rate remained at this level until early August 2023, when the Brazilian Central Bank started loosening monetary policy, eventually bringing the SELIC rate down to 11.75%, a level at which it remained at the end of 2023. As of the date of this annual report, the SELIC rate is 11.25%. This high interest rate level combined with the economic uncertainty and economic volatility due to the general and presidential elections held in October 2022 had an adverse effect on economic growth in 2022 that continued into 2023.
Volatile conditions in financial markets could also have a material adverse effect on us, including on our ability to access capital and liquidity on financial terms acceptable to us, if at all. If capital markets financing ceases to become available, or becomes excessively expensive, we may be forced to raise the rates we pay on deposits to attract more customers and become unable to maintain certain liability maturities. Any such increase in capital markets funding availability or costs or in deposit rates could have a material adverse effect on our interest margins and liquidity.
In particular, we face, among others, the following risks related to the economic downturn and volatile conditions:
- reduced demand for our products and services;- increased inflationary pressure, continued high unemployment and continued reductions in growth prospects could make the economic environment more unpredictable and adversely affect our results of operations;- polarization of the political scenario in Brazil in a year of municipal elections;- intensification of government action in regulation (including banking regulation with respect to the Agenda BC#, such as regulations on social and environmental risks, or CSLL, IOF and other tax reform), technological disruptions (including as a result of PIX and Open Finance) and the entry of new players (including large technology companies, fintech and marketplaces) have made and may continue to make our industry more competitive and potentially less profitable;- increased regulation of our industry and compliance with such regulation would likely continue to increase our costs and may affect the pricing for our products and services, increase our regulatory risks and limit our ability to pursue business opportunities; and - inability of our borrowers to comply with their existing obligations on a timely basis, whether in part or at all. Continued macroeconomic uncertainty may adversely affect customers' income across both our retail and corporate business, and may adversely affect the recoverability of our loans, resulting in increased loan losses.
Any of the developments mentioned above may have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations, including without limitation as a result of a higher cost of capital and limitations on the availability of funding given the market's requirement for a higher risk premium due to market conditions, expectations for the sector and availability of liquidity in the Brazilian and global economy.
Each of these factors could also affect the credit quality of our counterparties, due to the slowdown in the Brazilian economy as a whole and reduction in purchasing power and operating margins. The process we use to estimate losses inherent in our credit exposure requires complex judgments, including forecasts of economic conditions and how these economic conditions might impair the ability of our borrowers to repay their loans. The degree of uncertainty concerning economic conditions may adversely affect the accuracy of our estimates, which may, in turn, impact the reliability of the process and the sufficiency of our loan loss allowances.
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 9
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The continuance or escalation of the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East could materially affect our financial position and increase our operational risk.
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a large-scale military action against Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has caused an ongoing humanitarian crisis in Europe as well as volatility in financial markets globally, heightened inflation, shortages and increases in the prices of energy, oil, gas and other commodities. The continuance or escalation of the war, including its extension to other countries in the region, could lead to further increases in energy, oil and gas prices (particularly if supplies to Europe are interrupted) and heightened inflationary pressures, which in turn could lead to further increases in interest rates and market volatility. In addition, the war has exacerbated supply chain problems, particularly to those businesses most sensitive to rising energy prices. The war and its effects could exacerbate the current slowdown in the global economy and could negatively affect the payment capacity of some of our customers, especially those with more exposure to the Russian or Ukrainian markets.
In response to the Russian military action against Ukraine, several countries, including the United States, the European Union member states, the United Kingdom and other UN member states, have imposed severe sanctions on Russia and Belarus, including freezing/blocking assets, targeting major Russian banks, the Russian central bank, and certain Russian companies and individuals, imposing trade restrictions against Russia and Russian interests, as well as the disconnection of certain Russian banks from the SWIFT system (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication). In addition, the sanctions imposed also include a ban on trading in sovereign debt and other securities. The scale of sanctions is unprecedented, complex and rapidly evolving, and poses continuously increasing operational risk to us. Our corporate framework and policies are designed to ensure compliance with applicable laws, regulations and economic sanctions in the countries in which we operate, including U.S., EU, UK and UN economic sanctions. We cannot predict whether Brazil or any of the jurisdictions whose sanctions frameworks we adhere to will enact additional economic sanctions or trade restrictions in response to the Russian military action against Ukraine. While we do not knowingly engage in direct or indirect dealings with sanctioned parties according to applicable sanctions, or in direct dealings with the sanctioned countries/territories, we may on occasion have indirect dealings within the sanctioned countries/territories, but aim to operate in line with applicable U.S., EU, UK and UN blocking and sectoral sanctions regulations.
Furthermore, we believe that the risk of cyberattacks on companies and institutions has increased and could increase even further as a result of the abovementioned conflicts and in response to the sanctions imposed, which could adversely affect our ability to maintain or enhance our cybersecurity and data protection measures. We are actively monitoring the situation to ensure that cyber defenses remain updated against current and emerging threats.
In addition, on October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an attack on Israel targeting Israeli civilians. In response, Israel declared war against Hamas, attacking Hamas targets in Gaza and the region. The war, the escalation of the conflict and any resulting conflicts in the region could lead to higher oil and gas prices, the imposition of sanctions, travel and import/export restrictions, increased inflationary pressures and market volatility, among other potential consequences. In response to the war in Gaza, since mid-November 2023, Houthi rebels in Yemen have targeted and carried out attacks on commercial shipping vessels travelling through the Red Sea which may result in further disruptions in supply chains.
We do not have a physical presence in Russia, Ukraine or in the Middle East and our direct exposure to Russian, Ukrainian or Middle Eastern markets is not material. However, the impact of the wars and sanctions on global markets and macroeconomic conditions globally, and other potential future geopolitical tensions and consequences remain uncertain and may exacerbate our operational risk. Episodes of economic and market volatility and pressure on supply chains and inflation may continue to occur and could worsen if wars persist or increase in severity. As a result, our businesses, results of operations and financial position could be adversely affected by any of these factors directly or indirectly arising from the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East.
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 10
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The value and liquidity of the portfolio of investment securities that we hold may be adversely affected by the level of economic activity in Brazil.
The recoverability of our loan portfolios, our ability to increase the amount of loans outstanding in our portfolio and our results of operations and financial condition in general are dependent to a significant extent on the level of economic activity in Brazil. The quality of our loan portfolio may deteriorate as a result of these risks and our loan loss reserves could be insufficient to cover our loan losses, which could have a material adverse effect on us. See "-The credit quality of our loan portfolio may deteriorate and our loan loss reserves could be insufficient to cover our loan losses, which could have a material adverse effect on us."
In addition, we are exposed to sovereign debt in Brazil. Our net exposure to Brazilian sovereign debt as of December 31, 2023 was R$148.8 billion (or 13.3% of our total assets as of that date) and consisted principally of National Treasury Bills (LTN), Treasury Bills (LFT) and National Treasury Notes (NTN-A, NTN-B, NTN-C and NTN-F). Recessionary conditions in Brazil would likely have a significant adverse impact on our loan portfolio and sovereign debt holdings and, as a result, on our financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.
The recoverability of our loan portfolios and our ability to increase the amount of loans outstanding and our results of operations and financial condition in general, are dependent to a significant extent on the level of economic activity in Brazil. See "-The credit quality of our loan portfolio may deteriorate and our loan loss reserves could be insufficient to cover our loan losses, which could have a material adverse effect on us."
Our revenues are also subject to a risk of deterioration from unfavorable political and diplomatic developments, social instability, international conflicts, and changes in governmental policies, including expropriation, nationalization, international ownership legislation, interest rate caps and tax and monetary policies.
The economy of Brazil faces long-standing structural problems, including weaknesses in infrastructure, economic competitiveness and education, high levels of social inequality, rising inflation and increasing public debt levels, and has experienced significant volatility in recent decades. This volatility resulted in fluctuations in the levels of deposits and in the relative economic strength of various segments of the Brazilian economy to which we lend. In addition, Brazil is affected by commodities price fluctuations, which in turn may affect financial market conditions through exchange rate fluctuations, interest rate volatility and deposits volatility. Furthermore, fiscal and monetary policy measures enacted by the Brazilian government in response to the COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased governmental debt through 2021 and 2022. In 2023, despite economic growth and positive developments from a revenue standpoint, the level of governmental debt (as a percentage of the GDP) has continued to increase. Among the risks that could lead to an economic slowdown and adverse conditions in the financial markets are: (i) further increases in the prices of energy and other commodities that can cause inflation or lead to further inflationary pressures; (ii) the continued breakdown of global supply chains; (iii) the continuance or escalation of the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East; (iv) additional fiscal incentives, which have hitherto contributed to keeping inflation above target levels; (v) further decline in governmental revenue, which could lead to a steep growth in governmental debt; and (vi) tightening of monetary and fiscal policies, including rising interest costs. Negative and fluctuating economic conditions, such as slowing or negative growth and a changing interest rate environment, could impact our profitability by causing lending margins to decrease and credit quality to decline and leading to decreased demand for higher margin products and services.
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 11
Inflation, government efforts to control inflation, and changes in interest rates may hinder the growth of the Brazilian economy and could have an adverse effect on us.
The Brazilian government's measures to fight inflation, mainly through the Brazilian Central Bank, have had significant effects on the Brazilian economy and our business, and could continue to do so. Tight monetary policies with high compulsory reserve requirements may restrict Brazil's growth and the availability of credit, reduce our loan volumes and increase our loan loss provisions. Conversely, interest rate decreases may trigger increases in inflation and, consequently, growth volatility and the need for sudden and significant interest rate increases, which could negatively affect our spreads.
As a result of inflationary pressures that have arisen in Brazil in early 2021 and which grew in intensity on a global scale throughout 2022, the Brazilian Central Bank began to tighten its monetary policy and began to increase the SELIC rate in mid-March 2021, ultimately reaching 9.25% at the end of 2021. This cycle continued into 2022, with the SELIC rate reaching a high of 13.75% in August 2022, at which point the Brazilian Central Bank resolved to keep it at that level. The SELIC rate remained at 13.75% for nearly a year, as inflation remained closer to the upper level of the Brazilian Central Bank's targeted level pursuant to applicable law (3.25% for 2023 and 3.0% onward). In August 2023 as inflation subsided, the Brazilian Central Bank started reducing the SELIC rate, with the SELIC rate reaching 11.75% as of December 31, 2023. As of the date of this annual report, the SELIC rate is at 11.25% per annum.
Our income, expenses, assets and liabilities are impacted by interest rates levels and volatility. Therefore, our results of operations and financial condition are affected by inflation, interest rate fluctuations and monetary policies. Changes in these variables may materially and adversely affect the growth of the Brazilian economy, our loan portfolios, our cost of funding and our income from credit operations.
We estimate that, in 2023 a 1.0% increase in the base interest rate would have resulted in a decrease, respectively, in our net interest income of R$733 million within the following 12-month period. Any changes in interest rates may negatively impact our business, financial condition and results of operations. In addition, increases in base interest rates may adversely affect us by reducing the demand for our credit and investment products, increasing funding costs, and increasing the risk of default by our customers in the short run.
Inflation adversely affects our personnel and other administrative expenses that are directly or indirectly tied to inflation indexes, such as the IPCA, and the IGP-M.
For example, considering the amounts in 2023, each additional percentage point change in the IPCA rate would impact our personnel and other administrative expenses by approximately R$99 million and R$83 million, respectively.
Inflation for the years ended December 31, 2021, 2022 and 2023, as measured by the IPCA, was 10.06%, 5.79% and 4.6%, respectively. Increased inflation in the year ended December 31, 2022 resulted mainly from temporary supply shocks affecting the prices of foodstuffs. These inflationary pressures persisted in 2023 and early 2024, and have also been compounded by additional pressures, including events that hit electricity generation and led to an increase in energy prices, disruption in supply chains, the depreciation of the real, the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, conflict in the Middle East and the continued COVID-19 pandemic (particularly in China), among others. As a result, inflation in mid-2022 peaked at multiple-year highs of 12.1% in Brazil (as measured by the IPCA in April 2022), which led the Brazilian government to introduce tax cuts on selected items. This helped to ease pressures on prices and led to the accumulated IPCA for the year ended December 31, 2022 being 5.79%. Some of the tax exemptions put in place in 2022 were reversed in 2023, thus adding to the inflationary pressures affecting the Brazilian economy in 2023. However, the delayed effects of tight monetary policy, favorable climatic conditions and a stronger real in 2023 than in 2022 helped reduce inflation in the second half of 2023, which led the IPCA to end 2023 at 4.6%, which was below the level recorded in 2022, but still above the 3.25% targeted level set by the Brazilian Central Bank pursuant to applicable law.
Inflation, government measures to curb inflation, and speculation related to possible measures regarding inflation may significantly contribute to uncertainty regarding the Brazilian economy and weaken investors' confidence in Brazil. Any such developments may have a material adverse effect on us.
International Operations1 | 1.3%
International Operations - Risk 1
Developments and the perception of risk in other countries may adversely affect the Brazilian economy and market price of Brazilian issuers' securities.
The market value of securities of Brazilian issuers is affected by economic and market conditions in other countries, including the United States, European countries (including Spain, where Santander Spain, our controlling shareholder, is based), and other Latin American and emerging market countries. Although economic conditions in Europe and in the United States may differ significantly from economic conditions in Brazil, investors' reactions to developments in these countries may have an adverse effect on the market value of securities of Brazilian issuers.
Investors' perceptions of the risks associated with our securities may also be affected by allegations of fraud, accounting misstatements, corruption, bribery or other matters involving other Brazilian issuers. Investors' perceptions of the risks associated with our securities may also be affected by perception of risk conditions in Spain. Additionally, crises in other emerging market countries may reduce investor interest in securities of Brazilian issuers, including our securities. This could adversely affect the market price of our securities, restrict our access to capital markets and compromise our ability to finance our operations in the future on favorable terms, or at all.
In 2020 and 2021, the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected the performance of Brazilian markets, an effect that was less pronounced in 2022 in Brazil. These factors persisted in 2022 and have been compounded by the war between Russia and Ukraine, which has contributed to inflationary pressures worldwide and spurred central banks to increase interest rates, thereby spurring fears of a global economic slowdown. Continued COVID-19 outbreaks in China in 2022 and early 2023 and the response of the Chinese government to these outbreaks have adversely affected the Chinese economy. As 2023 unfolded, the Chinese government resumed introducing monetary and fiscal stimuli in order to reverse that setback and meet its economic growth goals. The global economy was also adversely affected by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East in the second half of 2023. However, inflationary pressures in advanced economies proved to be more resilient than previously imagined, thus leading monetary authorities in these economies to extend their monetary tightening cycle and renewing fears of a global recession, which weighed on the market value of our securities.
In addition, we continue to be exposed to disruptions and volatility in the global financial markets due to their effects on the financial and economic environment, particularly in Brazil, which have included a slowdown in the economy, an increase in the unemployment rate, a decrease in the purchasing power of consumers and a lack of credit availability. We lend primarily to Brazilian borrowers, and these effects could materially and adversely affect our customers and increase our nonperforming loans, resulting in increased risk associated with our lending activity and requiring us to make corresponding revisions to our risk management and loan loss reserve models.
Natural and Human Disruptions2 | 2.6%
Natural and Human Disruptions - Risk 1
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The global COVID-19 pandemic materially impacted our business, and any future outbreak of any other highly contagious diseases or other public health emergencies, could materially and adversely impact our business, financial condition, liquidity and results of operations.
Although the World Health Organization declared that COVID-19 no longer constitutes a public health emergency, certain adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to impact the macroeconomic environment in 2023 and may persist for some time. If new COVID-19 waves variants or strains of the virus, the emergence of variants resistant to existing or new vaccines, or any other highly contagious diseases or other public health emergencies force countries to readopt measures that restrict economic activity, the macroeconomic environment could deteriorate and adversely impact our business and results of operations, which could include, but are not limited to: (i) a continued decreased demand for our products and services; (ii) further material impairment of our loans and other assets including goodwill; (iii) a decline in the value of collateral; (iv) constraints on our liquidity due to market conditions, exchange rates and customer withdrawal of deposits and continued draws on lines of credit; and (v) downgrades to our credit ratings.
See also "-Our cost of funding is affected by our credit ratings, and any risks may have an adverse effect on both variables. Any downgrade in (i) the rating of Brazil's, (ii) our controlling shareholders, or (iii) our credit rating would likely increase our cost of funding, requiring us to post additional collateral under some of our derivative and other contracts and adversely affect our interest margins and results of operations."
Moreover, our operations could still be impacted by risks from remote work or bans on nonessential activities. If, in connection with any future public health emergencies, we become unable to successfully operate our business from remote locations including, for example, due to failures of our technology infrastructure, increased cybersecurity risks, or governmental restrictions that affect our operations, this could result in business disruptions that could have a material and adverse effect on our business.
We may also be adversely affected by measures taken by the Brazilian and other governments to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic or other disruptive events. For example, in 2020, a temporary suspension on dividends and other distributions was enacted in Brazil through Resolution No. 4,820, limiting distributions to shareholders to 30% of adjusted net income (following amendments enacted on December 23, 2020). As a result, we only distributed R$3,837 million in 2020 compared to R$10,800 million in 2019. This restriction has not been applied since then, but there is no assurance that the Brazilian Central Bank or other government agencies will not apply similar measures to us in the future, whether in an effort to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic or otherwise.
The resurgence of COVID-19, variants or strains thereof or any future outbreak of any other highly contagious diseases or other public health emergencies may have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, liquidity and results of operations or cause other risks to us.
Natural and Human Disruptions - Risk 2
Climate change can create transition risks, physical risks and other risks that could adversely affect us.
Risks associated with climate change are gaining increasing social, regulatory, economic and political relevance, both in Brazil and globally. New regulations related to climate change may affect our operations and business strategy, leading us to incorporate financial costs resulting from the following risk drivers:
- Transitional risks associated with the move to a low-carbon economy, both at idiosyncratic and systemic levels, such as through policy, regulatory and technological changes and business and consumer preferences, which could increase our expenses and impact our strategies. We expect that financial services providers may undergo significant developments in terms of stakeholder, policy, legal and regulatory expectations relating to our lending activities and the value of our financial assets as regards the ESG impact of our activities. As a result, we expect that we will face greater scrutiny with respect to our business and the customers we transact with. Our operational decision-making in certain industries or projects associated with causing or exacerbating climate change may be affected as we seek to adapt our practices to avoid reputational and client relationship harm, both of which may in turn impact customer demand for our products, returns on certain business activities and the value of certain assets and trading positions resulting in impairment changes. Recent developments which may have an effect on our operations and/or those of our customers include European Union Regulation 2023/1115 on deforestation-free products, which may have a significant impact on Brazilian agribusiness, and the proposal under discussion in the Brazilian Congress to regulate the carbon credit market (Bill of Law No. 2148/2021) which may lead to an increase in operating costs for customers.
- Physical risks related to discrete events, such as flooding and wildfires, and extreme weather impacts and longer-term shifts in climate patterns, such as extreme heat, sea level rise and more frequent and prolonged drought, which could result in financial losses that could impair asset values and the creditworthiness of our customers. For example, Brazil suffered extreme weather events in 2023, which is believed to be due to the El Niño weather phenomenon. Such events could disrupt our operations or those of our customers or third parties on which we rely and do business with, including through direct damage to assets and indirect impacts from supply chain disruption and market volatility. If we fail to adequately embed risks arising from climate change into our risk and operational frameworks to appropriately measure, manage and disclose the various financial and operational risks that may result from climate change, or if we fail to adapt our strategy and business model to a changing regulatory and market environment, we may face significant adverse impacts on our business growth rates, competitiveness, profitability, capital requirements, cost of funding and financial condition.
These primary drivers could materialize, among others, in the following financial risks:
- Credit risks: Physical climate change could lower corporate revenues, increase operating costs and lead to increased credit exposure. Severe weather could also affect collateral value. Additionally, companies with business models not aligned with the transition to a low-carbon economy may face a higher risk of reduced corporate earnings and business disruption due to new regulations or market shifts.
- Market risks: Market changes in the most carbon-intensive sectors could affect energy and commodity prices, corporate bonds, equities and certain derivatives contracts. Increasing frequency of severe weather events could affect macroeconomic conditions, weakening fundamental factors such as economic growth, employment and inflation, and lead to higher volatility.
- Liquidity risks: Companies could face liquidity risks derived from cash outflows to improve their reputation in the market or solve climate-related problems. Extreme weather events could also affect the value of our high-quality liquid assets or cause sovereign debt to rise limiting our access to capital markets.
- Operational risks: Severe weather events could damage assets and directly impact business continuity of both of our customers' and our operations. Climate-related financial risks could also cause operational risk losses from litigation if, for example, we are perceived to misrepresent sustainability-related practices, achievements, metrics goals or targets.
- Regulatory compliance risks: Increased regulatory compliance risk may result from the increasing focus, pace, breadth and depth of regulatory expectations requiring implementation in short timeframes across multiple jurisdictions and from changes in public policy, laws and regulations in connection with climate change and related environmental sustainability matters.
- Reputational risks: Our reputation and client relationships may be damaged as a result of our practices, disclosures and decisions related to climate change and social and environmental issues, or to the practices or involvement of our clients, vendors or suppliers in certain industries or projects being associated with causing or exacerbating climate change. Furthermore, parties who may suffer losses from the effects of climate change may seek compensation from those they hold responsible such as state entities, regulators, investors and lenders. We could face conduct risks derived from misrepresentations in our sustainability-related disclosures, including our practices, achievements, metrics, goals and targets or the sustainability characteristics of our products or of our customers, investors or other stakeholders (greenwashing).
- Strategic risks: Our strategy could be affected if we fail to achieve our net zero or other targets, including those related to the activities that we finance and those concerning our own operations.
As a financial institution, we are already subject to certain regulatory ESG requirements as detailed under "Item 4. Information on the Company-B. Business Overview-Regulation and Supervision-Other Applicable Laws and Regulations-ESG Requirements Applicable to Financial Institutions." These requirements may increase going forward as a result of the increasing importance of ESG matters. This and other changes in regulations in Brazil and international markets may expose us to increased compliance costs and limit our ability to pursue certain business opportunities and provide certain products and services, each of which could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.
As climate risk is interconnected with all key risk types, we have developed and continue to enhance processes to embed climate risk considerations into our risk management strategies; however, because the timing and severity of climate change may not be predictable, our risk management strategies may not be effective in mitigating climate risk exposure.
We periodically disclose information such as emissions and other climate-related performance data, statistics, metrics and/or targets. If we lack robust and high quality climate-related procedures, controls and data, we may not be able to disclose reliable climate-related information. In addition, because the climate-related information is based on current expectations and future estimates about our and third-parties' operations and businesses and addresses matters that are uncertain to varying degrees, we may not be able to meet our estimates, targets or commitments or we may not be able to achieve them within the timelines we announce. Actual or perceived shortcomings with respect to these emissions and other climate-related initiatives and reporting could result in litigation or regulatory enforcement and impact our ability to hire and retain employees, increase our customer base, and attract and retain certain types of investors.
Any of the conditions described above could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.
Capital Markets5 | 6.4%
Capital Markets - Risk 1
Market conditions have resulted and could result in material changes to the estimated fair values of our financial assets. Negative fair value adjustments could have a material adverse effect on our operating results, financial condition and prospects.
In the past, financial markets have been subject to significant stress resulting in steep falls in perceived or actual financial asset values, particularly due to volatility in global financial markets and the resulting widening of credit spreads, including as a result of the war in Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic, high inflation (including high energy prices) and other disruptive events. We have material exposures to securities, loans and other investments that are recorded at fair value and are therefore exposed to potential negative fair value adjustments. Asset valuations in future periods, reflecting then-prevailing market conditions, may result in negative changes in the fair values of our financial assets and these may also translate into increased impairments. In addition, the value ultimately realized by us on disposal may be lower than the current fair value. Any of these factors could require us to record negative fair value adjustments, which may have a material adverse effect on our operating results, financial condition or prospects.
In addition, to the extent that fair values are determined using financial valuation models, such values may be inaccurate or subject to change, as the data used by such models may not be available or may become unavailable due to changes in market conditions, particularly for illiquid assets, and particularly in times of economic instability. In such circumstances, our valuation methodologies require us to make assumptions, judgments and estimates in order to establish fair value, and reliable assumptions are difficult to make and are inherently uncertain and valuation models are complex, making them inherently imperfect predictors of actual results. Any consequential impairments or write-downs could have a material adverse effect on our operating results, financial condition and prospects.
Capital Markets - Risk 2
The relative volatility and limited liquidity of the Brazilian securities markets may negatively affect the liquidity and market prices of the units and the ADRs.
The B3 is significantly less liquid than the NYSE or other major exchanges in the world. As of December 31, 2023, the aggregate market capitalization of the B3 was equivalent to approximately R$4.1 trillion (U.S.$0.8 billion), and the top 10 stocks in terms of trading volume accounted for approximately 45% of all shares traded on B3 in the year ended December 31, 2023. In contrast, as of December 31, 2023, the aggregate market capitalization of the NYSE was approximately U.S.$ 34.6 trillion. Although any of the outstanding shares of a listed company may trade on the B3, in most cases fewer than half of the listed shares are actually available for trading by the public, the remainder being held by small groups of controlling persons, government entities or a principal shareholder.
The uncertainties caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 had an adverse impact on the global economy, global capital markets, including in Brazil, and the prices of most of the securities traded on the NYSE and the B3, including the price of our securities during the course of 2020 and 2021 and, to a lesser extent, in 2022. In 2022, these effects have been compounded by the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, continued supply chain disruptions, high inflation (including high energy prices) and higher interest rates globally and in Brazil. Impacts similar to those described above may reoccur, which may result in volatility in the prices of our securities traded on the NYSE and on the B3. We cannot assure you that the price of our securities will not fall below the lowest levels at which our securities traded in the past as a result of these or other factors.
The relative volatility and limited liquidity of the Brazilian securities markets may substantially limit your ability to sell the units or ADRs at the time and price you desire and, as a result, could negatively impact the market price of these securities.
Capital Markets - Risk 3
Holders of ADRs who exchange ADRs for their underlying units may risk losing Brazilian tax advantages and the ability to remit foreign currency abroad.
Brazilian law requires that parties obtain registration with the Brazilian Central Bank in order to remit foreign currencies, including U.S. dollars, abroad. The Brazilian custodian for the units must obtain the necessary registration with the Brazilian Central Bank for payment of dividends or other cash distributions relating to the units or after disposal of the units. If you exchange your ADRs for the underlying units, however, you may only rely on the custodian's certificate for five business days from the date of exchange. Thereafter, you must obtain your own registration in accordance with the rules of the Brazilian Central Bank and the CVM, in order to obtain and remit U.S. dollars abroad after the disposal of the units or the receipt of distributions relating to the units. If you do not obtain a certificate of registration, you may not be able to remit U.S. dollars or other currencies abroad and may be subject to less favorable tax treatment on gains with respect to the units. For more information, see "Item 10. Additional Information-D. Exchange Controls."
If you attempt to obtain your own registration, you may incur expenses or suffer delays in the application process, which could delay your receipt of dividends or distributions relating to the units or the return of your capital in a timely manner. The custodian's registration and any certificate of foreign capital registration you may obtain may be affected by future legislative changes. Additional restrictions applicable to you, to the disposal of the underlying units or to the repatriation of the proceeds from disposal may be imposed in the future.
Capital Markets - Risk 4
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Disruption or volatility in global financial and credit markets, including as a result of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and conflict in the Middle East, could adversely affect the financial and economic environment in Brazil, which could have a material adverse effect on us.
Volatility and uncertainty in global financial and credit markets have generally led to a decrease in liquidity and an increase in the cost of funding for Brazilian and international issuers and borrowers. Such conditions may adversely affect our ability to access capital and liquidity on financial terms acceptable to us, if at all.
Part of our funding originates from repurchase agreements which are generally short term and volatile in terms of volume, as they are directly impacted by market liquidity. As these transactions are typically guaranteed by Brazilian government securities, the value and/or perception of value of the securities may significantly impact the availability of funds, as the cost of funding will increase if the quality of the Brazilian government securities used as collateral is adversely affected as a result of conditions in financial and credit markets, making this source of funding inefficient for us.
If the size and/or liquidity of the Brazilian government bond and/or repurchase agreement markets decrease, if there is increased collateral credit risk or if we are unable to access capital and liquidity on financial terms acceptable to us or at all, our financial condition and the results of our operations may be adversely affected.
Capital Markets - Risk 5
Exchange rate volatility may have a material adverse effect on the Brazilian economy and on us.
The Brazilian currency has experienced frequent and substantial variations in relation to the U.S. dollar and other foreign currencies. The Brazilian government has used various exchange rate policies, including sudden devaluations, periodic mini-devaluations (during which the frequency of adjustments has ranged from daily to monthly), exchange controls, dual exchange rate markets and a floating exchange rate system.
Although long-term depreciation of the real is generally linked to the rate of inflation in Brazil, depreciation of the real occurring over shorter periods of time has resulted in significant variations in the exchange rate among the real, the U.S. dollar and other currencies. As a result of fluctuations in commodity prices, international developments and periods of progress and setbacks on the domestic front-such as during the presidential impeachment process in 2016, or the approval of the national pension system reform in 2019-the real has weakened over the last few years. As of December 31, 2021, the exchange rate was R$5.5805 per U.S.$1.00. In 2022, there was significant volatility in the R$/U.S.$ exchange rate, which fluctuated within a wide band that ranged from R$4.6175 to R$5.7042 per U.S.$1.00 as a result of ongoing economic and political uncertainty both globally and within Brazil. As of December 31, 2022 the exchange rate was R$5.2177 per U.S.$1.00. In 2023, the volatility in the R$/U.S.$ exchange rate persisted as it ranged from R$4.7202 to R$5.4459 per U.S.$1.00 as a result of geopolitical issues, increases in interest rate and economic uncertainties abroad combined with uncertainty regarding Brazil's fiscal and budgetary position. The exchange rate was R$4.8413 per U.S.$1.00 on December 31, 2023. There can be no assurance that the real will not substantially depreciate or appreciate further against the U.S. dollar.
In the year ended December 31, 2023, a variation of 1.0% in the exchange rate of reais to U.S. dollars would have resulted in a variation of income on our net foreign exchange position denominated in U.S. dollars of R$0.63 million.
Past episodes of depreciation of the real relative to the U.S. dollar created additional inflationary pressures in Brazil, which led to increases in interest rates and limited Brazilian companies' access to foreign financial markets and prompted the adoption of recessionary policies by the Brazilian government. Depreciation of the real may also, in the context of an economic slowdown, lead to decreased consumer spending, deflationary pressures and reduced growth of the Brazilian economy as a whole, and thereby harm our asset base, financial condition and results of operations. Additionally, depreciation of the real could make our foreign-currency-linked obligations and funding more expensive, negatively affect the market price of our securities portfolios, and have similar consequences for our borrowers. Conversely, appreciation of the real relative to the U.S. dollar and other foreign currencies could lead to a deterioration of the Brazilian balance of payments, as well as hinder export-driven growth. Depending on the circumstances, either a depreciation or appreciation of the real could materially and adversely affect the growth of the Brazilian economy and our business, financial condition and results of operations.
Legal & Regulatory
Total Risks: 14/78 (18%)Above Sector Average
Regulation3 | 3.8%
Regulation - Risk 1
We are subject to extensive regulation and regulatory and governmental oversight, which could adversely affect our business, operations and financial condition.
The Brazilian financial markets are subject to extensive and continuous regulatory control by the Brazilian government, principally by the Brazilian Central Bank, the CVM and the CMN, which, in each case, materially affects our business. We have no control over the issuance of new regulations that may affect our operations, including in respect of:
- minimum capital requirements;- reserve and compulsory deposit requirements;- limits on investments in fixed assets;- lending limits and other credit restrictions, including compulsory allocations;- limits and other restrictions on interest rates and fees;- limits on the amount of interest banks can charge or the period for capitalizing interest; and - accounting and statistical requirements.
The regulations governing Brazilian financial institutions are continuously evolving, and the Brazilian Central Bank has reacted actively and extensively to developments in our industry.
Changes in regulations in Brazil and international markets may expose us to increased compliance costs and limit our ability to pursue certain business opportunities and provide certain products and services. Brazilian regulators are constantly updating prudential standards in accordance with the recommendations of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, in particular with respect to capital and liquidity, which could impose additional significant regulatory burdens on us. For example, future liquidity standards could require us to maintain a greater proportion of our assets in highly liquid but lower-yielding financial instruments, which would negatively affect our net interest margin. There can be no assurance that future changes in regulations or in their interpretation or application will not have a material adverse effect on us.
As some of the banking laws and regulations have been recently issued or become effective, the manner in which those laws and related regulations are applied to the operations of financial institutions is still evolving. Moreover, to the extent that these recently adopted regulations are implemented inconsistently in Brazil, we may face higher compliance costs. The measures of the Brazilian Central Bank and the amendment of existing laws and regulations, or the adoption of new laws or regulations, could adversely affect our ability to provide loans, make investments or render certain financial services. No assurance can be given generally that laws or regulations will be adopted, enforced or interpreted in a manner that will not have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations. Furthermore, regulatory authorities have substantial discretion in how to regulate banks, and this discretion, and the regulatory mechanisms available to the regulators, have been increasing during recent years. Regulations may be unexpectedly and immediately imposed by governments and regulators in response to a crisis, and these may especially affect financial institutions such as those that may be deemed to be systemically important. In addition, the volume, granularity, frequency and scale of regulatory and other reporting requirements require a clear data strategy to enable consistent data aggregation, reporting and management. Inadequate management information systems or processes, including those relating to risk data aggregation and risk reporting, could lead to a failure to meet regulatory reporting requirements or other internal or external information demands, and we may face supervisory measures as a result.
We may also be subject to potential impacts relating to regulatory changes affecting our controlling shareholder, Santander Spain, due to continued significant financial regulatory reform in jurisdictions outside Brazil that directly or indirectly affect Santander Spain's businesses, including Spain, the European Union, the United States and other jurisdictions. In Spain and in other countries in which Santander Spain's subsidiaries operate (including Brazil), there is continuing political, competitive and regulatory scrutiny of the banking industry. Political involvement in the regulatory process, in the behavior and governance of the banking sector and in the major financial institutions in which the local governments have a direct financial interest, and in their products and services and the prices and other terms applied to them, is likely to continue. Changes to current legislation and its implementation through regulation (including additional capital, leverage, funding, liquidity and tax requirements), policies (including fiscal and monetary policies established by central banks and financial regulators, and changes to global trade policies), and other legal and regulatory actions may impose additional regulatory burdens on Santander Group, including Santander Brasil, in these jurisdictions. In the European Union, these reforms could include changes relating to capital requirements, liquidity and funding, or other measures, implemented as a result of the unification of the European banking system under a European Banking Union. In the United States, many changes have occurred as a result of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (the "Dodd-Frank Act") and its implementing regulations, most of which are now in place. In May 2018, the United States government enacted the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act, or "EGRRCPA," the first major piece of legislation rebalancing the financial regulatory landscape since the passage of the Dodd-Frank Act. The U.S. financial regulatory agencies have begun to propose regulations implementing EGRRCPA, but the ultimate impact of these reforms on our operations is currently uncertain. For more information, see "Item 4. Information on the Company-B. Business Overview-Regulation and Supervision-Other Applicable Laws and Regulations-U.S. Banking Regulation." We cannot predict the outcome of any financial regulatory reforms in the European Banking Union, the United States or other jurisdictions, and we cannot yet determine their effects on Santander Spain and, consequently, their effects on us, but regulatory changes may result in additional costs for us.
Regulation - Risk 2
We are subject to potential intervention by any of our regulators or supervisors.
Our business and operations are subject to increasingly significant rules and regulations set by the Brazilian Central Bank, the CVM, the CNSP and the CMN, with which we are required to comply to conduct our banking and financial services business. These apply to business operations, affect our financial returns, and include reserve and reporting requirements and conduct-of-business regulations.
In their supervisory roles, the Brazilian Central Bank and the CMN seek to maintain the safety and soundness of financial institutions with the aim of strengthening the protection of customers and the financial system. Their continuing supervision of financial institutions is conducted through a variety of regulatory tools, including the collection of information by way of prudential returns, reports obtained from skilled persons, visits to firms and regular meetings with management to discuss issues such as performance, risk management and strategy. As a result, we face high levels of supervisory scrutiny (resulting in increasing internal compliance costs and supervision fees), and in the event of a breach of our regulatory obligations we are likely to face more stringent regulatory fines.
Regulation - Risk 3
We are subject to regulation on a consolidated basis and may be subject to liquidation or intervention on a consolidated basis.
We operate in a number of credit- and financial services-related sectors through entities under our control. For certain purposes related to regulation and supervision, the Brazilian Central Bank treats us and our subsidiaries and affiliates as a single financial institution. While we believe that our consolidated capital base provides financial strength and flexibility to our subsidiaries and affiliates, their individual activities could indirectly put our capital base at risk. Any investigation or intervention by the Brazilian Central Bank, particularly in the activities carried out by any of our subsidiaries and affiliates, could have a material adverse impact on our other subsidiaries and affiliates and, ultimately, on us. If we or any of our financial subsidiaries become insolvent, the Brazilian Central Bank may carry out an intervention or liquidation process on a consolidated basis rather than conduct such procedures for each individual entity. In the event of an intervention or a liquidation process on a consolidated basis, our creditors would have claims to our assets and the assets of our consolidated financial subsidiaries. In this case, claims of creditors of the same nature held against us and our consolidated financial subsidiaries would rank equally in respect of payment. If the Brazilian Central Bank carries out a liquidation or intervention process with respect to us or any of our financial subsidiaries on an individual basis, our creditors would not have a direct claim on the assets of such financial subsidiaries, and the creditors of such financial subsidiaries would have priority in relation to our creditors in connection with such financial subsidiaries' assets. The Brazilian Central Bank also has the authority to carry out other corporate reorganizations or transfers of control under an intervention or liquidation process.
Litigation & Legal Liabilities5 | 6.4%
Litigation & Legal Liabilities - Risk 1
We may not be able to detect or prevent money laundering and other criminal activities fully or on a timely basis, which could expose us to additional liability and could have a material adverse effect on us.
We are required to comply with applicable anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism, or "AML/CFT," antibribery and corruption, sanctions and other laws and regulations (collectively, financial crime, compliance ("FCC") regulations) applicable to us. These laws and regulations require us, among other things, to conduct full customer due diligence (including sanctions and politically exposed person screening) and keep our customer, account and transaction information up to date. We have FCC policies and procedures in place detailing what is required from those responsible. We are also required to conduct FCC training for our employees and to report suspicious transactions and activity to appropriate law enforcement following full investigation by our special incidents area.
Financial crime continues to be the subject of enhanced regulatory scrutiny and supervision by regulators globally. AML/CFT, antibribery, anticorruption and sanctions laws and regulations are increasingly complex and detailed. Key standard-setting and regulatory bodies continue to provide guidelines to strengthen the interaction and cooperation between prudential and AML/CFT supervisors. Compliance with these laws and regulations requires automated systems, sophisticated monitoring and skilled compliance personnel.
We maintain updated policies and procedures aimed at detecting and preventing the use of our banking network for money laundering and other financial crime-related activities. However, emerging technologies, such as cryptocurrencies (which were recently regulated by statute in Brazil) and innovative payment methods, could limit our ability to track the movement of funds and, therefore, present a risk to us. Our ability to comply with the legal requirements depends on our ability to improve detection and reporting capabilities and reduce variation in control processes and oversight accountability. These require implementation and embedding within our business effective controls and monitoring, which in turn requires ongoing changes to systems and operational activities. Financial crime is continually evolving and is subject to increasingly stringent regulatory oversight and focus. This requires proactive and adaptable responses from us so that we are able to deter threats and criminality effectively. Even known threats can never be fully eliminated, and there will be instances where we may be used by other parties to engage in money laundering and other illegal or improper activities.
In addition, we rely heavily on our employees to assist us by spotting such activities and reporting them, and our employees have varying degrees of experience in recognizing criminal tactics and understanding the level of sophistication of criminal organizations. Where we outsource any of our customer due diligence, customer screening or anti-financial crime operations, we remain responsible and accountable for full compliance and any breaches. While we expect relevant counterparties to maintain and apply their own appropriate compliance measures, procedures and internal policies, such measures may not be completely effective in preventing third parties from using our (and our relevant counterparties') services as a conduit for illicit purposes (including illegal cash transactions) without our (or our relevant counterparties') knowledge. If we are unable to apply the necessary scrutiny and oversight of third parties to whom we outsource certain tasks and processes, there remains a risk of regulatory breach, and if we are associated with, or even accused of being associated with, breaches of AML/CFT, antibribery and corruption or sanctions requirements, our reputation could suffer and/or we could become subject to fines, sanctions and/or legal enforcement (including being added to "watch lists" that would prohibit certain parties from engaging in transactions with us), any one of which could have a material adverse effect on our operating results, financial condition and prospects.
Furthermore, the Brazilian Public Federal Prosecutor's Office (Ministério Público Federal), or "MPF," has charged one of our officers in connection with the alleged bribery of a Brazilian tax auditor to secure favorable decisions in tax cases, resulting in a claimed benefit of R$83 million (approximately U.S.$15 million) for us. On October 23, 2018, the officer was formally indicted and asked to present his defense. On November 5, 2018, the officer in question presented his defense. Proceedings had been ongoing until October 25, 2021, when a São Paulo federal judge requested additional documents from a Brasília federal judge in order to proceed with discovery. Proceedings have since been stayed. We are not a party to these proceedings. We have voluntarily provided information to the Brazilian authorities and have relinquished the benefit of certain tax credits to which the allegations relate in order to show good faith.
We have been, and may in the future be, subject to negative coverage in the media about us or our clients, including with respect to alleged conduct such as failure to detect and/or prevent any financial crime activities or comply with FCC regulations. Negative media coverage of this type about us, whether it has merit or not, could materially and adversely affect our reputation and perception among current and potential clients, investors, vendors, partners, regulators and other third parties, which in turn could have a material adverse effect on our operating results, financial condition and prospects as well as damage our customers' and investors' confidence and the market price of our securities.
The reputational damage to our business and global brand could be severe if we were found to have breached AML/CFT, antibribery, anticorruption or sanctions requirements. Our reputation could also suffer if we are unable to protect our customers' data and bank products and services from being accessed or used for illegal or improper purposes. If we are unable to comply fully with applicable laws, regulations and expectations, our regulators and relevant law enforcement agencies have the ability and authority to impose significant fines and other penalties on us, including requiring a complete review of our business systems, day-to-day supervision by external consultants and ultimately the revocation of licenses.
Additionally, we are required by Brazilian Central Bank regulations, which derive from resolutions from the UN Security Council, to comply with certain rules relating to the local enforcement of sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council. We believe we already have the control and compliance procedures in place to satisfy such additional compliance requirements. However, we continue to evaluate their impact on our control and compliance procedures and whether adjustments will need to be made to our control and compliance procedures as a result.
Litigation & Legal Liabilities - Risk 2
We are exposed to risk of loss from legal and regulatory proceedings.
We face risk of loss from legal and regulatory proceedings, including tax proceedings that could subject us to monetary judgments, fines and penalties. The current regulatory and tax enforcement environment in Brazil reflects an increased supervisory focus on enforcement, combined with uncertainty about the evolution of the regulatory regime, and may lead to material operational and compliance costs.
We are from time to time subject to regulatory investigations and civil and tax claims and party to certain legal proceedings incidental to the normal course of our business, including in connection with conflicts of interest, lending activities, relationships with our employees, economic plans, and other commercial or tax matters. In view of the inherent difficulty of predicting the outcome of legal matters, particularly where the claimants seek very large or indeterminate damages, or where the cases present novel legal theories, involve a large number of parties or are in the early stages of investigation or discovery, we cannot state with certainty what the eventual outcome of these pending matters will be. The amount of our reserves in respect to these matters, which is calculated based on the probability of loss of each claim, is substantially less than the total amount of the claims asserted against us, and, in light of the uncertainties involved in such claims and proceedings, there is no assurance that the ultimate resolution of these matters will not significantly exceed the reserves currently accrued by us. As a result, the outcome of a highly uncertain matter may become material to our operating results.
As of December 31, 2023, we had provisions for taxes, other legal contingencies and other provisions of R$8,930 million (compared to R$7,340 million as of December 31, 2022). For more information, see note 22 to our audited consolidated financial statements included in this annual report and in "Item 8. Financial Information-A. Consolidated Statements and Other Financial Information-Legal Proceedings."
Litigation & Legal Liabilities - Risk 3
Ongoing or future investigations relating to corruption, diversion of public funds, money laundering fraud and other matters that are being conducted by the Brazilian federal police as well as other Brazilian and non-Brazilian regulators and law enforcement officials may adversely affect the growth of the Brazilian economy and could have a material adverse effect on us.
Certain Brazilian companies have faced and continue to face investigations and prosecutions by the CVM, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, or the "SEC," the U.S. Department of Justice, the Brazilian Federal Police and the Brazilian Federal Prosecutor's Office, the Comptroller General of Brazil, and other relevant governmental authorities, in connection with corruption, money laundering and other allegations of wrongdoing. Anticorruption or other investigations may lead to significant reputational harm, which may affect the investigated corporations' images and revenues and result in downgrades from rating agencies or funding restrictions, among other negative effects. Allegations of bribery, corruption, fraud, money laundering improper accounting practices or other similar matters among certain large Brazilian companies may also adversely affect investors' perceptions of the risks involved in investing in Brazilian companies and result in volatility in financial markets. Given the significance of the companies that historically have been subject to investigations in the Brazilian economy, the investigations and their fallout have had and may continue to have an adverse effect on Brazil's economic growth prospects in the short to medium term.
Furthermore, the negative effects on such companies and others may also impact the level of investments in infrastructure in Brazil, which may lead to lower economic growth or contraction in the near to medium term. Although we have reduced our exposure to companies involved in government investigations, we cannot assure that new investigations will not be launched or that additional persons will not become subject to investigation. To the extent that the repayment ability of these companies is hampered by any fines and/or other sanctions that may be imposed upon them or reputational or commercial damage as a result of investigations, we may also be materially adversely affected. In addition, investigations have involved members of the Brazilian executive and legislative branches, which caused considerable political tensions, and, as a result, persistently poor economic conditions in Brazil could have a material adverse effect on us. It is difficult to calculate the size and extension of the effects derived from such political tensions, which may include further deteriorations in Brazil's economic conditions.
As a result of corruption allegations, including as part of the Lava Jato investigations, and difficult macroeconomic conditions, Brazil was downgraded to non-investment grade status by the three major credit risk-rating agencies: Standard & Poor's, or "S&P" in September 2015, by Fitch Ratings, or "Fitch" in December 2015 and by Moody's Investor Service, or "Moody's" in February 2016, and downgraded again by Fitch in May 2016. On July 26, 2023, Fitch upgraded Brazil's credit rating from BB- to BB and changed its outlook to stable. On December 19, 2023, S&P upgraded Brazil's sovereign rating from BB- to BB with stable outlook. Moody's sovereign rating for Brazil is Ba2 with a stable outlook. Any downgrading of Brazil's credit rating could reduce the trading price of units and ADRs. Downgrades of various major Brazilian companies could worsen the conditions of the Brazilian economy and the condition of Brazilian companies in general, especially those relying on foreign investments, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations, as well as on the price of our units and ADSs.
Litigation & Legal Liabilities - Risk 4
Holders of the ADRs may not be entitled to a jury trial with respect to claims arising under the deposit agreement, which could be less favorable or less desirable to the plaintiff(s) in any such action.
The deposit agreement provides that, to the extent permitted by law, holders of the ADRs waive the right to a jury trial of any claim they may have against us or the depositary arising out of or relating to our shares, the ADRs or the deposit agreement. The deposit agreement, including the waiver of the right to jury trial, governs the rights of the initial holders of the ADRs as well as the rights of subsequent holders that acquire holders of the ADRs in the secondary market.
If any holders or beneficial owners of the holders of the ADRs bring a claim against us or the depositary in connection with matters arising under the deposit agreement or the ADRs, such holder or beneficial owner may not be entitled to a jury trial with respect to such claims, which may have the effect of limiting and discouraging lawsuits against us and/or the depositary. Any plaintiff(s) in such an action may believe that a nonjury trial would be less favorable to the plaintiff(s) or otherwise less desirable.
Litigation & Legal Liabilities - Risk 5
Judgments of Brazilian courts with respect to our units or ADRs will be payable only in reais.
Our By-Laws provide that we, our shareholders, our directors and officers and the members of our fiscal council shall submit to arbitration any and all disputes or controversies that may arise among ourselves relating to, or originating from, the application, validity, effectiveness, interpretation, violations and effects of violations of the provisions of Brazilian Corporate Law, our By-Laws, the rules and regulations of the CMN, the Brazilian Central Bank and the CVM, as well as other rules and regulations applicable to the Brazilian capital markets and the rules and regulations of the Arbitration Regulation of the Market Arbitration Chamber. However, in specific situations, including whenever precautionary motions are needed for protection of rights, the dispute or controversy may have to be brought to a Brazilian court. If proceedings are brought in the courts of Brazil seeking to enforce our obligations in respect of the units or ADRs, we will not be required to discharge our obligations in a currency other than reais. Under Brazilian exchange control limitations and according to Brazilian laws, an obligation in Brazil to pay amounts denominated in a currency other than reais may be satisfied in Brazilian currency only at the exchange rate, as determined by the Brazilian Central Bank or competent court, in effect on the date the judgment is obtained, and such amounts are then adjusted to reflect exchange rate variations through the effective payment date. The then-prevailing exchange rate may not afford non-Brazilian investors with full compensation for any claim arising out of or related to our obligations under the units or ADRs.
Taxation & Government Incentives3 | 3.8%
Taxation & Government Incentives - Risk 1
Holders of ADRs could be subject to Brazilian income tax on capital gains from sales of ADRs.
Law No. 10,833 of December 29, 2003 provides that the disposal of assets located in Brazil by a nonresident to either a Brazilian resident or a nonresident is subject to taxation in Brazil, regardless of whether the disposal occurs outside or within Brazil. This provision results in the imposition of income tax on the gains arising from a disposal of our units by a nonresident of Brazil to another nonresident of Brazil. It is unclear whether ADRs representing our units, which are issued by the ADR depositary outside Brazil, will be deemed to be "property located in Brazil" for purposes of this law. We believe that ADRs do not qualify as property located in Brazil and, thus, should not be subject to Brazilian income tax. Nevertheless, there is no judicial guidance as to the application of Law no. 10,833 of December 29, 2003 and, accordingly, we are unable to predict whether Brazilian courts may decide that it applies to dispositions of our ADRs between nonresidents of Brazil. However, in the event that the disposition of assets is interpreted to include a disposition of our ADRs, this tax law would accordingly impose withholding taxes on the disposition of our ADRs by a nonresident of Brazil to another nonresident of Brazil. See "Item 10. Additional Information-E. Taxation-Brazilian Tax Considerations."
Any gain or loss recognized by a U.S. taxpayer will generally be treated as U.S. source gain or loss. A U.S. taxpayer would generally not be able to credit any Brazilian tax imposed on the disposition of our units or ADRs against such person's U.S. federal income tax liability. See "Item 10. Additional Information-E. Taxation-Material U.S. Federal Income Tax Considerations for U.S. Holders.
Taxation & Government Incentives - Risk 2
We are subject to review by tax authorities, and an incorrect interpretation by us of tax laws and regulations may have a material adverse effect on us.
The preparation of our tax returns requires the use of estimates and interpretations of complex tax laws and regulations and is subject to review by tax authorities. We are subject to the income tax laws of Brazil. These tax laws are complex and subject to different interpretations by the taxpayer and relevant governmental tax authorities, leading to disputes, which are sometimes subject to prolonged evaluation periods until a final resolution is reached. In establishing a provision for income tax expense and filing returns, we must make judgments and interpretations about the application of these inherently complex tax laws. If the judgment, estimates and assumptions we use in preparing our tax returns are subsequently found to be incorrect, there could be a material adverse effect on us. The interpretations of Brazilian tax authorities are unpredictable and frequently involve litigation, which introduces further uncertainty and risk as to tax expense.
Taxation & Government Incentives - Risk 3
Changes in taxes and other fiscal assessments may have a negative effect on us.
The Brazilian government regularly enacts reforms to the tax and other assessment regimes to which we and our customers are subject. Such reforms include changes in tax rates and, occasionally, enactment of temporary levies, the proceeds of which are earmarked for designated governmental purposes. The effects of these changes and any other changes that result from enactment of additional tax reforms cannot be quantified and there can be no assurance that any such reforms would not have an adverse effect upon our business. Furthermore, such changes may produce uncertainty in the financial system, increasing the cost of borrowing and contributing to the increase in our nonperforming credit portfolio.
Changes in tax policy, including the creation of new taxes, may occur with relative frequency and such changes could have an adverse effect on our financial position or operating results. For example, the IOF rates have been frequently adjusted (both upwards and downwards) in recent years. Currently, the daily IOF tax rates applicable to local loans are approximately (i) 0.0082% for individuals and (ii) 0.0041% for legal entities. We cannot estimate the impact that a change in tax laws or tax policy could have on our operations. For example, the IOF tax is a tool used by the Brazilian government to regulate economic activity, which does not directly impact our results of operations, though changes in the IOF tax can impact our business volumes generally.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Brazilian Congress enacted Constitutional Amendment No 132/2023, which is intended to pave the way for a significant reform of the Brazilian tax system. For these reforms to take effect, the Brazilian Congress will also need to approve a number of complementary laws to enact the changes to Brazil's tax system made possible by this constitutional amendment. These changes include the replacement of five taxes currently levied in Brazil: (i) the Social Integration Program (Programa de Integração Social), or "PIS"; (ii) the Social Security Financing Contribution (Contribuição para o Financiamento da Seguridade Social), or "COFINS"; and (iii) Tax on Industrialized Products (Imposto sobre Produtos Industrializados), or "IPI – federal taxes"; (iv) Circulation of Goods and Services Tax (Imposto sobre Circulação de Mercadorias e Serviços), or "ICMS – state tax"; and (v) Tax on Services (Imposto Sobre Serviços), or "ISS – municipal tax." These taxes will be replaced by two value-added taxes: ICMS and ISS will be merged into a Tax on Goods and Services (Imposto Sobre Bens e Serviços), or "IBS," managed by states and municipalities, and the Federal Government will be in charge of a Contribution on Goods and Services (Contribuição sobre Bens e Serviços), or "CBS," which will merge the PIS, the COFINS, and the IPI.
Tax reforms or any change in laws and regulations affecting taxes or tax incentives may directly or indirectly adversely affect our business and results of operations. The effects of these changes, if enacted, and any other changes that could result from the enactment of additional tax reforms, cannot be quantified.
Environmental / Social3 | 3.8%
Environmental / Social - Risk 1
We are subject to increasing scrutiny and regulation from data protection laws, including penalties in the event of noncompliance with the terms and conditions of certain new European and Brazilian regulations.
We receive, maintain, transmit, store and otherwise process proprietary, sensitive, confidential and personal data, including public and nonpublic personal information of our customers, employees, counterparties and other third parties, including, but not limited to, personally identifiable information and personal financial information. The collection, sharing, use, retention, disclosure, protection, transfer and other processing of this information is governed by stringent federal, state, local and foreign laws, rules, regulations and standards, and the regulatory framework for data privacy and cybersecurity is in considerable flux and evolving rapidly. As data privacy and cybersecurity risks for banking organizations and the broader financial system have significantly increased in recent years, data privacy and cybersecurity issues have become the subject of increasing legislative and regulatory focus. There also has been increasing regulatory scrutiny from the SEC with respect to adequately disclosing risks concerning cybersecurity and data privacy, which increases the risk of investigations into cybersecurity practices and related disclosures, of companies within its jurisdiction which, at a minimum, can result in distraction of management and diversion of resources for targeted businesses.
We are subject to regulations enacted by Brazilian authorities. The LGPD came into effect in September 2020, with the exception of its articles 52, 53 and 54, which came into effect on August 1, 2021. The LGPD sets out several penalties, which include warnings, blocking and erasure of data, public disclosure of the offense, and fines of up to 2% of the economic group's turnover in Brazil in the preceding year, capped at R$50 million per offense. In addition, we are subject to Regulation (EU) 2016/279 on the protection of natural persons with regard to the processing of personal data and on the free movement of such data (the "General Data Protection Regulation" or "GDPR"). Additionally, following the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the EU, we also are subject to the UK General Data Protection Regulation ("UK GDPR") (i.e., a version of the GDPR as implemented into UK law). The GDPR and UK GDPR have also imposed significant fines and penalties for noncompliance of up to the higher of 4% of annual worldwide turnover or €20 million (or £17.5 million under the UK GDPR), and, for other specified infringements, fines and penalties of up to the higher of 2% of annual worldwide turnover or €10 million (or £8.7 million under the UK GDPR). European data protection authorities have already imposed fines for GDPR violations up to, in some cases, hundreds of millions of euros.
The implementation of the LGPD, the GDPR, the UK GDPR and other data protection regimes has required substantial amendments to our procedures and policies. The changes have impacted, and could further adversely impact, our business by increasing our operational and compliance costs. Further, there is a risk that the measures may not be implemented correctly or that there may be partial noncompliance with the new procedures. If there are breaches of our data protection and privacy obligations, as the case may be, we could face significant civil administrative and monetary sanctions, as well as reputational damage, which could have a material adverse effect on our operating results, financial condition and prospects. Furthermore, following any such breach, we may be ordered to change our business practices, policies or systems in a manner that adversely impacts our operating results.
For more information, see "Item 4. Information on the Company-B. Business Overview-Regulation and Supervision-Other Applicable Laws and Regulations-Data Protection Requirements."
Environmental / Social - Risk 2
Failure to adequately protect ourselves against risks relating to cybersecurity could materially and adversely affect us. We are also subject to increasing scrutiny and regulation governing cybersecurity risks.
We face various cybersecurity risks, including but not limited to the intrusion into our information technology systems and platforms by ill-intentioned third parties, infiltration of malware (such as computer viruses) into our systems, contamination (whether intentional or accidental) of our networks and systems by third parties with whom we exchange data, unauthorized access to confidential customer and/or proprietary data by persons inside or outside our organization, ransomware affecting our services and end-user technology, social engineering and phishing attacks, information leaks and cyberattacks causing systems degradation or service unavailability that may result in business losses.
We may not be able to successfully protect our information technology systems and platforms against such threats. In recent years, we have seen increased targeting of the computer systems of companies and organizations, and the techniques used to obtain unauthorized, improper or illegal access to information technology systems have become increasingly complex and sophisticated. Furthermore, such techniques change frequently and are often not recognized or detected until after they have been launched and can originate from a wide variety of sources, including not only cybercriminals, but also activists and rogue states. We have been and continue to be subject to a range of cyberattacks and other external events or actors that interrupt normal business operations, such as disruptions, failures, unauthorized access or misuse, software bugs, server malfunctions, software and hardware failure, malware and ransomware, social engineering and phishing attacks, denial-of-service attacks, misconduct, fraud and other events that could have a serious impact on us. Cyberattacks could give rise to the loss of significant amounts of customer data and other sensitive information, as well as significant levels of liquid assets (including cash). In addition, cyberattacks could disrupt our electronic systems used to service our customers.
Armed conflicts (such as the wars in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East) and the professionalization of cybercriminals have produced a worsening threat landscape increasing the frequency and severity of cyberattacks that are impacting businesses, third parties, critical infrastructure and even governments. This situation has made cybersecurity a top risk concern for financial institutions.
Our greater reliance on digital systems also makes cybersecurity one of the main nonfinancial risks of the business. Our goal is to make Santander a cyber-resilient organization that can quickly prevent, detect and respond to cyberattacks by constantly improving our defenses.
If we fall victim to successful cyberattacks or experience cybersecurity, operational or data breaches and other security incidents, including the fraudulent withdrawal of money, in the future, we may incur substantial costs and suffer other negative consequences, such as remediation costs (liabilities for stolen assets or information, or repairs of system damage, among others), increased cybersecurity protection costs, lost revenues arising from the unauthorized use of proprietary information or the failure to retain or attract customers following an attack, as already mentioned, litigation and legal risks, increased insurance premiums, reputational damage affecting our customers' and investors' confidence, as well as damages to our competitiveness, stock price and long-term shareholder value.
We are also subject to increasing scrutiny and regulation governing cybersecurity risks. Such regulation is fragmented and constantly evolving, and includes CMN Resolution No. 4,893/2021. See "Item 4. Information on the Company-B. Business Overview-Regulation and Supervision-Other Applicable Laws and Regulations-Regulations on Cybersecurity" and "Item 16K. Cybersecurity." We could be adversely affected if new legislation or regulations are adopted or if existing legislation or regulations are modified such that we are required to alter our systems or require changes to our business practices or policies. A failure to implement all or some of these new global and local regulations, which in some cases have severe sanctions regimes, could also have a material adverse effect on us. If we fail to effectively manage our cybersecurity risk, for example, by failing to update our systems and processes in response to new threats, this could harm our reputation and adversely affect our operating results, financial condition and prospects through the payment of customer compensation or other damages, litigation expenses, regulatory penalties and fines and/or the loss of assets. Furthermore, upon a failure to comply with applicable law and regulations, we may be ordered to change our business practices, policies or systems in a manner that adversely impacts our operating results.
In addition, we may also be subject to cyberattacks against critical infrastructure of Brazil. Our information technology systems are dependent on such critical infrastructure, and any cyberattack against such critical infrastructure could negatively affect our ability to service our customers. As we do not operate such critical infrastructure, we have limited ability to protect our information technology systems from the adverse effects of such a cyberattack. See "Item 4. Information on the Company-B. Business Overview" and "Item 16K. Cybersecurity."
It is important to highlight that even when a failure of or interruption in our systems or facilities is resolved in a timely manner or an attempted cyber incident or other security breach is successfully avoided or thwarted, normally substantial resources are expended in doing so, and we may be required to take actions that could adversely affect customer satisfaction or behavior, as well as represent a threat to our reputation.
For additional information, see also "-We are subject to increasing scrutiny and regulation from data protection laws, including penalties in the event of noncompliance with the terms and conditions of certain new European and Brazilian regulations" and "-Failure to protect personal information could adversely affect us."
Environmental / Social - Risk 3
Failure to protect personal information could adversely affect us.
Like other financial institutions, in conducting our banking operations, we receive, manage, hold, transmit, maintain and store confidential personal information of our customers and counterparties, including, but not limited to, personally identifiable information and personal financial information. The sharing, use, disclosure and protection of this information are governed by various Brazilian and foreign laws and regulations.
Although we have procedures and controls in place to safeguard personal and other confidential or sensitive information in our possession, unauthorized access or disclosures could subject us to legal actions and administrative sanctions, as well as damages and reputational harm that could materially and adversely affect our operating results, financial condition and prospects. Furthermore, our business is exposed to risk from employees' potential noncompliance with policies, misconduct, negligence or fraud, which could result in regulatory sanctions and serious reputational and financial harm. We also face the risk that the design of our controls and procedures prove to be inadequate or are circumvented such that the data we hold is incomplete, not recoverable or not securely stored. Moreover, it is not always possible to deter or prevent employee misconduct, and the precautions we take to detect and prevent this activity may not always be effective. In addition, we may be required to report events related to information security issues, events where customer information may be compromised, unauthorized access to our systems and other security breaches, to the relevant regulatory authorities. Any material disruption or slowdown of our systems could cause information, including data related to customer requests, to be lost or delivered to our customers with delays or errors, which could adversely affect our reputation, reduce demand for our services and products and could materially and adversely affect us. If we cannot maintain effective and secure electronic data and information, management and processing systems or if we fail to maintain complete physical and electronic records, this could result in disruptions to our operations, claims from customers, regulators, employees and other parties, violations of applicable privacy and other laws, regulatory sanctions and serious reputational and financial harm to us.
Moreover, during the heights of the COVID-19 pandemic, we permitted or required a majority of our employees to work remotely, which led to increased vulnerability of our systems and the risk of cyber-attacks. Though the majority of our employees are now working in person at our offices, work-from-home policies may lead to continued vulnerability to the extent certain of our employees elect to work away from our premises and access our networks remotely. This trend, combined with our customers' increased reliance on digital banking products and other digital services, including mobile payment products, has increased the risk of data breaches and other security incidents.
Furthermore, any failure or disruption of our operational processes or systems, data breaches and other security incidents with respect to our or our third-party vendors' systems could adversely affect our business or reputation, and create significant legal, regulatory or financial exposure. We prioritize early identification, monitoring and mitigation of risks (including those resulting from our interactions with third parties) in our goal to provide a resilient and secure operational environment. In this regard, although (i) we have policies, procedures and controls in place designed to safeguard proprietary, sensitive and confidential information, including personal information, (ii) we take protective technical measures and monitor and develop our systems and networks to protect our technology infrastructure, data and information from misappropriation or corruption, and (iii) we work with our clients, vendors, service providers, counterparties and other third parties to develop secure data and information processing, collection, authentication, management, usage, storage and transmission capabilities and to ensure the eventual destruction of proprietary, sensitive and confidential information, including personal information, we, our third-party vendors or other third parties with which we do business have been and may continue to be subject to cyberattacks and other cybersecurity incidents. The implementation of our cybersecurity policies, procedures, controls and technical measures is designed to reduce the risk of such cybersecurity incidents but does not guarantee full protection against potential threats or cyberattacks or a risk-free environment. This is especially applicable in the current global environment, with the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East resulting in an increased risk of cyberattacks, and other disruptions in response to, or retaliation for, the sanctions and costs imposed on Russia and certain other countries directly or indirectly involved in these wars. While we generally perform cybersecurity due diligence on our key vendors, because we do not control our vendors and our ability to monitor their cybersecurity is limited, we cannot ensure the cybersecurity measures they take will be sufficient to protect any information we share with them. Due to applicable laws and regulations or contractual obligations, we may be held responsible for security breaches, cyberattacks or other similar incidents attributed to our vendors as they relate to the information we share with them.
We have seen in recent years the information technology systems and networks of companies and organizations being increasingly targeted, and the techniques used to obtain unauthorized, improper or illegal access to such information technology systems and networks have become increasingly complex and sophisticated, including through the use of AI. Furthermore, such techniques change frequently and are often not recognized or detected until after they have been launched and can originate from a wide variety of sources, including organized crime, hackers, activists, terrorists, nation-states, nation-state supported actors and others, any of which may see their effectiveness enhanced by the use of AI. As attempted attacks continue to evolve in scope and sophistication, we may incur significant costs in order to modify or enhance our protective measures against such attacks, or to investigate or remediate any vulnerability or resulting breach, or in communicating cyberattacks or other security incidents to our customers, affected individuals or regulators, as applicable.
If we cannot maintain effective and secure proprietary, confidential, sensitive and personal data, or if we or our third-party vendors fall victim to successful cyberattacks, penetrations, compromises, breaches or circumventions of our information technology systems or networks or experience other security incidents in the future, we may incur substantial costs and suffer other negative consequences, such as disruption to our operations, misappropriation of personal, proprietary, confidential or sensitive information, remediation costs (including liabilities for stolen assets or information and repairs of system damage, among others), increased cybersecurity protection costs, lost revenues arising from the unauthorized use of personal, proprietary, confidential or sensitive information or the failure to retain or attract our customers following an operational or security incident, litigation and legal risks (including claims from customers, employees or other third parties, regulatory action, reporting obligations, investigation, fines and penalties), increased insurance premiums, reputational damage affecting our customers' and our investors' confidence, as well as damages to our competitiveness, stock price and long-term shareholder value. In addition, our remediation efforts may not be successful, and we may not have adequate insurance to cover these losses. While we maintain insurance coverage, we cannot assure you that such coverage will be adequate or otherwise protect us from liabilities or damages with respect to claims alleging compromises of proprietary, confidential, sensitive or personal data or otherwise relating to data privacy and cybersecurity matters. In addition, we cannot be sure that our existing insurance coverage will continue to be available on acceptable terms or at all, or that our insurers will not deny coverage to any future claim. Moreover, even when a failure of or interruption in our or our third-party vendors' systems or facilities is resolved in a timely manner or an attempted cyberattack, data breach or security incident is successfully avoided or thwarted, substantial resources and management attention are expended in doing so, and to successfully avoid or resolve any such incidents, we may be required to take actions that could adversely affect customer satisfaction or retention, as well as harm our reputation.
Any of the cyberattacks, data breaches, data losses and other security incidents described above could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.
For additional information, see also "-We are subject to increasing scrutiny and regulation from data protection laws, including penalties in the event of noncompliance with the terms and conditions of certain new European and Brazilian regulations" and "-Failure to adequately protect ourselves against risks relating to cybersecurity could materially and adversely affect us. We are also subject to increasing scrutiny and regulation governing cybersecurity risks."
Ability to Sell
Total Risks: 6/78 (8%)Above Sector Average
Competition1 | 1.3%
Competition - Risk 1
The strong competitive environment in the Brazilian financial services market may adversely affect us, including our business prospects.
The Brazilian financial markets, including the banking, insurance and asset management sectors, are highly competitive, with this competition increasing in recent years. We face significant competition in all of our main areas of operation from other Brazilian and international banks, as well as state-owned institutions, including through portability of loans. In particular, we face the challenge of competing in an ecosystem where the relationship with the consumer is based on access to digital data and interactions. This access is increasingly dominated by digital platforms that are already eroding our results in very relevant markets such as payments. In addition, neobanks (i.e., banks that are fully digital) have begun operating in Brazil and have drawn significant numbers of customers. This privileged access to data can be used as a leverage to compete with us in other adjacent markets and may reduce our operations and margins in core businesses such as lending or wealth management. This could be accelerated by the advent of open banking and open finance, which could result in our competitors gaining access to valuable data regarding our customers which may help them compete with us. In addition, the alliances that our competitors are starting to build with large technology firms can make it more difficult for us to successfully compete with them and could adversely affect us.
Moreover, nontraditional providers of banking services, such as internet-based e-commerce providers, mobile telephone companies and internet search engines, as well as payment services for blockchain technologies, may offer and/or increase their offerings of financial products and services directly to customers. These nontraditional providers of banking services currently have an advantage over traditional providers because they are not subject to banking regulation. Several of these competitors may have long operating histories, large customer bases, strong brand recognition, and significant financial and marketing capabilities as well as other resources. They may adopt more aggressive prices and rates and devote more resources to technology, infrastructure and marketing. These new competitors, in addition to neobanks, have entered and may continue to enter the market or existing competitors may adjust their services with unique product or service offerings or approaches to providing banking services. If we are unable to successfully compete with current and new competitors, or if we are unable to anticipate and adapt our offerings to changing banking industry trends, including technological changes, our business may be adversely affected.
In addition, our failure to effectively anticipate or adapt to emerging technologies or changes in customer behavior, including among younger customers, could delay or prevent our access to new digital-based markets, which would in turn have an adverse effect on our competitive position and business. Furthermore, the widespread adoption of new technologies, including distributed ledger, artificial intelligence and/or biometrics, to provide services such as digital currencies, cryptocurrencies and payments, could require substantial expenditures to modify or adapt our existing products and services as we continue to grow our internet and mobile banking capabilities. Our customers may choose to conduct business or offer products in areas that may be considered speculative or risky. Further growth of such new technologies and mobile banking platforms could negatively impact the value of our investments in bank premises, equipment and personnel for our branch network. The persistence or acceleration of this shift in demand toward internet and mobile banking may necessitate changes to our retail distribution strategy. Our failure to implement changes to our distribution strategy swiftly and effectively could have an adverse effect on our competitive position.
In addition, on November 16, 2020, the Brazilian Central Bank instituted PIX, as well as the Instant Payment System (Sistema de Pagamentos Instantâneos), or "SPI," which enables participants to settle electronic transfers of funds in real time and is available for 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and every day in the year. This ecosystem promotes innovation of the existing payment infrastructure. Although the regulations relating to the PIX ecosystem are subject to further developments from time to time, such initiatives may promote greater competition in the industry, and could cause customers to move away from the solutions we offer towards PIX solutions. In particular, PIX has made processing payments faster and less expensive, has fostered and is expected to continue to foster additional competition and allow new entrants to join the market, while also serving as a significant source of data that will contribute to the ongoing transformation of the financial industry in Brazil. Such developments could therefore materially and adversely affect our business and results of operations.
Increasing competition could also require that we increase the rates offered on our deposits or lower the rates we charge on loans, which could also have a material adverse effect on our profitability, as well as limit our ability to increase our customer base and expand our operations, further increasing competition for investment opportunities.
The success of our operations, our profitability and our ability to maintain our competitive position depends, in part, on the success of new products and services we offer our customers and our ability to offer products and services that meet the customers' needs during their entire life cycle. However, we may not be able to manage emerging risks as we expand our range of products and services, which could have a material adverse effect on us. Moreover, our customers' needs and/or desires may change over time, and such changes may render our products and services obsolete, outdated or unattractive and we may not be able to develop new products that meet our customers' changing needs and/or desires. Our success is also dependent on our ability to anticipate and leverage new and existing technologies that may have an impact on products and services in the banking industry. Technological changes may further intensify and complicate the competitive landscape and influence customer behavior. If we cannot respond in a timely fashion to the changing needs and/or desires of our customers, we may lose existing or prospective customers, which could in turn materially and adversely affect us. In addition, the cost of developing products is likely to affect our results of operations.
As we expand the range of our products and services, some of which may be at an early stage of development, in certain regional markets where we operate, we will be exposed to new and potentially increasingly complex risks, such as conduct risk arising from relationships with customers, and development expenses. Our employees and risk management systems, as well as our experience and that of our partners, may not be sufficient to enable us to properly manage such risks. Any or all of these factors, individually or collectively, could have a material adverse effect on us. If we are not successful in retaining and strengthening customer relationships, we may lose market share, incur losses on some or all of our activities or fail to attract new deposits or retain existing deposits, which could have a material adverse effect on our operating results, financial condition and prospects.
Demand1 | 1.3%
Demand - Risk 1
The financial problems faced by our customers could adversely affect us.
Potential market turmoil and economic recession could materially and adversely affect the liquidity, credit ratings, businesses and/or financial conditions of our customers, which could in turn increase our nonperforming loan ratios, impair our loan and other financial assets, and result in decreased demand for borrowings and deposits in general. We have credit exposure to borrowers that have entered or may shortly enter into bankruptcy or similar proceedings. We may experience material losses from this exposure.
In addition, our customers may further significantly decrease their risk tolerance to non-deposit investments such as stocks, bonds and mutual funds, which would adversely affect our fee and commission income. Any of the conditions described above could have a material adverse effect on us.
Sales & Marketing3 | 3.8%
Sales & Marketing - Risk 1
We face risks related to market concentration.
Concentration risk is the risk associated with potential high financial losses triggered by significant exposure to a particular component of risk, whether it be related to a particular counterparty, industry or geographic concentration. Examples of such risks include significant exposure to a single counterparty, to counterparties operating in the same economic sector or geographical region, or to financial instruments that depend on the same index or currency.
We believe that an excessive concentration with respect to a particular risk factor could generate a relevant financial loss for us, especially if the risk is one described in the "Item 3. Key Information-D. Risk Factors" section of this annual report. We recognize the importance of this risk and the potential impacts that may affect our portfolio and results of operations.
Sales & Marketing - Risk 2
Inadequate pricing methodologies for insurance, pension plan and premium bond products may adversely affect us.
We establish prices and make calculations in relation to our insurance and pension products based on actuarial or statistical estimates. The pricing of our insurance and pension plan products is based on models that include a number of assumptions and projections that may prove to be incorrect, since these assumptions and projections involve the exercise of judgment with respect to the levels and timing of receipt or payment of premiums, contributions, provisions, benefits, claims, expenses, interest, investment results, retirement, mortality, morbidity and persistence. We could suffer losses due to events that are contrary to our expectations as a result of, among others, incorrect biometric and economic assumptions or the use of incorrect actuarial bases in the calculation of contributions and provisions.
Although the pricing of our insurance and pension plan products and the adequacy of the associated reserves are reassessed on a yearly basis, we cannot accurately determine whether our assets supporting our policy liabilities, together with future premiums and contributions, will be sufficient for the payment of benefits, claims and expenses. Accordingly, the occurrence of significant deviations from our pricing assumptions could have an adverse effect on the profitability of our insurance and pension products. In addition, if we conclude that our reserves and future premiums are insufficient to cover future policy benefits and claims, we will be required to increase our reserves and record these effects in our financial statements, which may have a material adverse effect on us.
Sales & Marketing - Risk 3
We may face operational difficulties under the Brazilian instant payment scheme.
As a direct participant of the PIX, we may face operational issues, as well as difficulties in adapting to the requirements established by the PIX payment scheme regulations and by the other applicable rules, mainly related to the minimum level of service to be provided on a recurring basis to customers, as well as recent new security and fraud prevention requirements set forth by the Brazilian Central Bank. The Brazilian Central Bank has also enacted a new rule implemented in July 2022 setting a limited amount of R$1,000 for PIX transactions carried out between 8:00 p.m. (or, at the user's discretion, between 10:00 p.m.) and 6:00 a.m. As a result, we may be the target of administrative sanctions and/or judicial claims, either by the Brazilian Central Bank itself or as a result of complaints brought by our customers if we fail to adequately comply with this rule. Furthermore, as a consequence of potential administrative sanctions or judicial claims, we may face difficulties in retaining customers in relation to Santander SX, our solution for our customers to access PIX, which may have a material adverse effect on our financial results, as well as our reputation.
In addition, the Brazilian Central Bank may issue new and stricter rules applicable to PIX participants, including new operational capacity requirements. The imposition by the Brazilian Central Bank of new requirements may adversely affect our operations. For more information related to the PIX and the SPI, see "Item 4. Information on the Company-B. Business Overview-Regulation and Supervision-Other Applicable Laws and Regulations-Brazilian Payment and Settlement System."
Brand / Reputation1 | 1.3%
Brand / Reputation - Risk 1
Damage to our reputation could cause harm to us.
Maintaining a robust risk management framework based on robust ethical principles and corporate values is critical to protect our reputation and our brand, attract and retain customers, investors and employees and conduct business transactions with counterparties. Damage to our reputation could materially and adversely affect our perception among current and potential clients, investors, vendors, partners, regulators and other third parties, which in turn could have a material adverse effect on our operating results, financial condition, and prospects as well as damage our customers' and investors' confidence and the market price of our securities. Harm to our reputation could arise from numerous sources, including, among others, employee misconduct, including the possibility of fraud perpetrated by our employees, litigation or regulatory enforcement, failure to deliver minimum standards of service and quality, negative perceptions regarding our ability to maintain the security of our technology systems and protect customer data (including as a result of a cybersecurity incident), dealing with sectors that are not well perceived by the public (weapons industries or embargoed countries, for example), dealing with customers in sanctions lists, rating downgrades, significant variations in our share price throughout the year, compliance failures, unethical behavior, actual or alleged conduct in any number of activities, including lending practice, sales and marketing, corporate governance and corporate culture, and the activities of customers and counterparties, including activities that negatively affect the environment. Our reputation could also suffer if we are the subject of negative coverage in the media, whether it has merit or not.
Actions by the financial services industry generally or by certain members of, or individuals in, the industry can also affect our reputation. For example, the role played by financial services firms in the financial crisis and the seeming shift toward increasing regulatory supervision and enforcement has caused public perception of us and others in the financial services industry to decline.
Additionally, we could suffer significant reputational harm that could affect our business, results of operations and prospects from any negative perceptions regarding topics related to environmental, social and corporate governance policies. There has been increased focus by customers, shareholders, investor advocacy groups, employees, regulators and other stakeholders on these topics, and our policies, practices and disclosures in these areas could come under scrutiny. Governments may implement new or additional regulations and standards or investors, customers and other stakeholders may impose new expectations or focus investments in ways that cause significant shifts in disclosure, consumption and behaviors that may have negative impacts on our business. If regulators or stakeholders consider our efforts to be ineffective, inadequate or unsatisfactory, whether real or perceived, it could harm our reputation, business and prospects and we could be subject to enforcement, other supervisory actions or other harm.
We could also suffer significant reputational harm if we fail to identify and manage potential conflicts of interest properly, including conflicts of interests involving our directors and executive officers. The failure, or perceived failure, to adequately address conflicts of interest could affect the willingness of customers to deal with us or give rise to litigation or enforcement actions against us, which could have an adverse effect on our operating results, financial condition and prospects.
We may be the subject of misinformation and misrepresentations deliberately propagated in media or social media to harm our reputation or for other deceitful purposes, or by profiteering short sellers seeking to gain an illegal market advantage by spreading false information about us. There can be no assurance that we will effectively neutralize and contain false information that may be propagated regarding us, which could have an adverse effect on our operating results, financial condition and prospects.
Tech & Innovation
Total Risks: 3/78 (4%)Below Sector Average
Technology3 | 3.8%
Technology - Risk 1
Added
We utilize artificial intelligence which could expose us to liability or adversely affect our business
We utilize, and are continuing to explore further uses of AI, in connection with our business, products and services. However, regulation of AI is rapidly evolving worldwide as legislators and regulators are increasingly focused on these powerful emerging technologies. The technologies underlying AI and its uses are subject to a variety of laws and regulations, including intellectual property, privacy, data protection and information security, consumer protection, competition, and equal opportunity laws, and are expected to be subject to increased regulation and new laws or new applications of existing laws and regulations. AI is the subject of ongoing review by various governmental and regulatory agencies around the world, and various jurisdictions are applying, or are considering applying, their platform moderation, cybersecurity and data protection laws and regulations to AI or are considering legal frameworks for AI.
In addition, AI regulation was included in the priority list of the Brazilian Senate for 2024. The most noteworthy bill of law being discussed in the Senate is Bill of Law No. 2,338/23, which seeks to establish general national standards for the development, implementation, and responsible use of AI systems in Brazil, introducing potential compliance requirements, liability standards, or usage restrictions that could directly affect our operations. If enacted, Bill of Law No. 2,338/23 might impose additional compliance burdens, establish liability frameworks, or mandate specific transparency and accountability measures for our use of AI systems.
We may not be able to anticipate how to respond to these rapidly evolving laws and regulations, and we may need to expend resources to adjust our offerings in certain jurisdictions if the legal and regulatory frameworks are inconsistent across jurisdictions. Furthermore, because AI technology itself is highly complex and rapidly developing, it is not possible to predict all of the legal or regulatory risks that may arise relating to the use of AI. If laws and regulations relating to AI are implemented, interpreted or applied in a manner inconsistent with our current practices or policies, such laws and regulations may adversely affect our use of AI and our ability to provide and to improve our services, require additional compliance measures and changes to our operations and processes or result in increased compliance costs and potential increases in civil claims against us, any of which could adversely affect our operating results, financial condition and prospects.
Technology - Risk 2
We rely on models for many of our decisions. Their inaccurate or incorrect use could have a material adverse effect on us
We use models for approval (scoring/rating), behavior, capital calculation, provisions, market risk, structural risk (i.e., interest rate risk in the banking book), operational risk, compliance and liquidity. A model is a system, approach or quantitative method that applies statistical, economic, financial or mathematical theories, techniques or hypotheses to transform input data into quantitative estimates and forecasts. It involves simplified representations of real world relationships between characteristics, values and observed assumptions that allows us to focus on specific aspects.
Model risk is the negative consequence of decisions based on inaccurate, improper or incorrect use of models. Sources of model risk include (i) incorrect or incomplete data in the model itself or the modelling method used in systems and (ii) incorrect use or implementation of the model. We manage model risk on a consolidated basis with the Santander Group, which includes internal model risk policies and a tiering mechanism to categorize the levels of importance of nonregulatory models and the intensity of model risk management, which is a function of the importance of each model. In addition, we have internal regulations that establish the principles, responsibilities and processes of the life cycle of the models, and which describe how they are organized, as well as the applicable governance, management and validation processes.
Nonetheless, model risk can cause financial loss, erroneous commercial and strategic decision-making or damage to our transactions, any of which could have a material adverse effect on our operating results, financial condition and prospects. In addition, our regulatory models and the underlying methodologies are subject to scrutiny from our supervisors, who could identify potential weaknesses or deficiencies that may result in enforcement actions, including sanctions, fines and/or the imposition of stricter capital requirements, as well as mandates and recommendations with respect to the methodologies underlying our models, which could also lead us to more onerous or inefficient capital consumptions.
Additionally, changes in economic and market drivers impact the performance of financial models, including credit loss models, capital models, traded risk models and models used in the asset/liability management process. This requires additional monitoring and adjustments to comply with the guidance and recommendations of standard setters, regulators and supervisors, particularly for credit loss models. It also results in the use of mitigants for model limitations, such as adjustments to model outputs to reflect consideration of management judgment. The performance and usage of models has been and may continue to be impacted by the consequences of changes in economic and market drivers, such as geopolitical events, financial crises, social and political upheaval and other events. While it is too early to be entirely certain of the magnitude of change required for our models, it is likely that capital, credit risk and other models will need to be adjusted.
In addition, the fair value of our financial assets, determined using financial valuation models, may be inaccurate or subject to change and, as a consequence, we may have to register impairments or write-downs that could have a material adverse effect on our operating results, financial condition and prospects. See "-Market conditions have resulted and could result in material changes to the estimated fair values of our financial assets. Negative fair value adjustments could have a material adverse effect on our operating results, financial condition and prospects."
Technology - Risk 3
Our business is highly dependent on the proper functioning of our information technology systems.
Our business is highly dependent on the ability of our information technology systems to accurately process a large number of transactions across numerous and diverse markets and products in a timely manner, and on our ability to rely on our digital technologies, computer and email services, software, and networks, as well as on the secure processing, storage and transmission of confidential data and other information in our computer systems and networks. The proper functioning of our financial control, risk management, accounting, customer service and other data processing systems is critical to our business and our ability to compete effectively.
We do not operate all of our redundant systems on a real-time basis and cannot assure that our business activities would not be materially disrupted if there were a partial or complete failure of any of these primary information technology systems or communication networks. Such failures could be caused by, among other things, major natural catastrophes, software bugs, computer virus attacks, conversion errors due to system upgrading, security breaches caused by unauthorized access to information or systems, or intentional malfunctions or loss or corruption of data, software, hardware or other computer equipment. We have experienced interruptions in our information technology systems in the past and we cannot assure that we will not suffer any such interruptions in the future, or that we will be able to identify and rectify these within a window of time that prevents any disruption. Any such events or failures could disrupt our business and impair our ability to provide our services and products effectively to our customers, which could adversely affect our reputation as well as our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Our ability to remain competitive and achieve further growth will depend in part on our ability to upgrade our information technology systems and increase our capacity on a timely and cost-effective basis. We must continually make significant investments and improvements in our information technology infrastructure in order to remain competitive. We cannot assure that in the future we will be able to maintain the level of capital expenditures necessary to support the improvement or upgrading of our information technology infrastructure. Any substantial failure to improve or upgrade our information technology infrastructure and management systems in an effective, timely and cost-effective manner, including in response to new or modified cybersecurity and data privacy laws, rules, regulations and standards, could have a material adverse effect on us.
Production
Total Risks: 3/78 (4%)Below Sector Average
Employment / Personnel1 | 1.3%
Employment / Personnel - Risk 1
We rely on recruiting, retaining and developing appropriate senior management and skilled personnel.
Our continued success depends in part on the continued service of key members of our senior executive team and other key employees. The ability to continue to attract, train, motivate and retain highly qualified and talented professionals is a key element of our strategy. The successful implementation of our strategy and culture depends on the availability of skilled and appropriate management, both at our head office and in each of our business units. If we or one of our business units or other functions fails to staff its operations appropriately, or loses one or more of its key senior executives or other key employees and fails to replace them in a satisfactory and timely manner, our business, financial condition and results of operations, including control and operational risks, may be adversely affected.
Our ability to attract and retain qualified employees is affected by perceptions of our culture, social and corporate governance policies and management, our profile in the markets in which we operate and the professional opportunities we offer.
In addition, the financial industry has experienced and may continue to experience more stringent regulation of employee compensation, which could have an adverse effect on our ability to hire or retain the most qualified employees. If we fail or are unable to attract and appropriately train, motivate and retain qualified professionals, our business may also be adversely affected.
Supply Chain2 | 2.6%
Supply Chain - Risk 1
We rely on third parties and affiliates for important products and services.
Third-party vendors and certain affiliated companies provide key components of our business infrastructure such as loan and deposit servicing systems, back office and business process support, information technology production and support, internet connections, and network access (including cloud-based services). Relying on these third parties and affiliated companies can be a source of operational and regulatory risk to us, including with respect to security breaches affecting such parties. We are also subject to risk with respect to security breaches affecting the vendors and other parties that interact with these service providers. As our interconnectivity with these third parties and affiliated companies increases, we face the risk of operational failure with respect to their systems. We may be required to take steps to protect the integrity of our operational systems, thereby increasing our operational costs. In addition, certain problems caused by these third parties or affiliated companies could affect our ability to deliver products and services to customers. While we have diversified providers for the main services and keep strict and close monitoring on them, in some instances, replacing these third-party vendors could also entail delays and expense. Further, the operational and regulatory risk we face as a result of these arrangements may be increased to the extent that we restructure such arrangements. Restructurings could involve significant expense to us and entail significant delivery and execution risk, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, operations and financial condition.
Supply Chain - Risk 2
We are subject to counterparty risk in our business.
We are exposed to counterparty risk in addition to credit risks associated with lending activities. Counterparty risk may arise from, for example, investing in securities of third parties, entering into derivative contracts under which counterparties have obligations to make payments to us, or executing securities, futures, currency or commodity trades from proprietary trading activities that fail to settle at the required time due to non-delivery by the counterparty or systems failure by clearing agents, clearinghouses or other financial intermediaries.
We routinely transact with counterparties in the financial services industry, including brokers and dealers, commercial banks, investment banks, mutual funds, hedge funds and other institutional customers, as well as counterparties in various other industries. Defaults by, and even rumors or questions about the solvency of, certain of our counterparties, including financial institutions and the financial services industry generally, have led to market-wide liquidity problems and losses or defaults by other counterparties. Many of the routine transactions we enter into expose us to significant credit risk in the event of default by one of our significant counterparties.
We or certain of our counterparties may incur losses or defaults for a wide variety of reasons, including defaults by certain of our counterparties, by business with which our counterparties transact, rumors or questions about the solvency of our counterparties or significant market participants, as well as evidence or rumors of fraud or improper accounting practices among certain of our counterparties or significant market participants, including both financial and nonfinancial institutions. If any of these problems were to materialize, as they have in past among large Brazilian corporations, the otherwise routine transactions that we have entered into with our counterparties could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.
If these risks give rise to losses, this could materially and adversely affect us. Our loan portfolio does not have any specific concentration exceeding 10% of our total loans. As of December 31, 2023, 1.0% of our loan portfolio is allocated to our largest debtor and 5.4% to our next 10 largest debtors. However, we cannot assure this will continue to be the case or that we will not incur significant losses from counterparty defaults despite the concentration levels described above.
If these counterparty risks give or continue to give rise to losses, our business, financial condition and results of operations could materially and adversely be affected.
See a full breakdown of risk according to category and subcategory. The list starts with the category with the most risk. Click on subcategories to read relevant extracts from the most recent report.
FAQ
What are “Risk Factors”?
Risk factors are any situations or occurrences that could make investing in a company risky.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires that publicly traded companies disclose their most significant risk factors. This is so that potential investors can consider any risks before they make an investment.
They also offer companies protection, as a company can use risk factors as liability protection. This could happen if a company underperforms and investors take legal action as a result.
It is worth noting that smaller companies, that is those with a public float of under $75 million on the last business day, do not have to include risk factors in their 10-K and 10-Q forms, although some may choose to do so.
How do companies disclose their risk factors?
Publicly traded companies initially disclose their risk factors to the SEC through their S-1 filings as part of the IPO process.
Additionally, companies must provide a complete list of risk factors in their Annual Reports (Form 10-K) or (Form 20-F) for “foreign private issuers”.
Quarterly Reports also include a section on risk factors (Form 10-Q) where companies are only required to update any changes since the previous report.
According to the SEC, risk factors should be reported concisely, logically and in “plain English” so investors can understand them.
How can I use TipRanks risk factors in my stock research?
Use the Risk Factors tab to get data about the risk factors of any company in which you are considering investing.
You can easily see the most significant risks a company is facing. Additionally, you can find out which risk factors a company has added, removed or adjusted since its previous disclosure. You can also see how a company’s risk factors compare to others in its sector.
Without reading company reports or participating in conference calls, you would most likely not have access to this sort of information, which is usually not included in press releases or other public announcements.
A simplified analysis of risk factors is unique to TipRanks.
What are all the risk factor categories?
TipRanks has identified 6 major categories of risk factors and a number of subcategories for each. You can see how these categories are broken down in the list below.
1. Financial & Corporate
Accounting & Financial Operations - risks related to accounting loss, value of intangible assets, financial statements, value of intangible assets, financial reporting, estimates, guidance, company profitability, dividends, fluctuating results.
Share Price & Shareholder Rights – risks related to things that impact share prices and the rights of shareholders, including analyst ratings, major shareholder activity, trade volatility, liquidity of shares, anti-takeover provisions, international listing, dual listing.
Debt & Financing – risks related to debt, funding, financing and interest rates, financial investments.
Corporate Activity and Growth – risks related to restructuring, M&As, joint ventures, execution of corporate strategy, strategic alliances.
2. Legal & Regulatory
Litigation and Legal Liabilities – risks related to litigation/ lawsuits against the company.
Regulation – risks related to compliance, GDPR, and new legislation.
Environmental / Social – risks related to environmental regulation and to data privacy.
Taxation & Government Incentives – risks related to taxation and changes in government incentives.
3. Production
Costs – risks related to costs of production including commodity prices, future contracts, inventory.
Supply Chain – risks related to the company’s suppliers.
Manufacturing – risks related to the company’s manufacturing process including product quality and product recalls.
Human Capital – risks related to recruitment, training and retention of key employees, employee relationships & unions labor disputes, pension, and post retirement benefits, medical, health and welfare benefits, employee misconduct, employee litigation.
4. Technology & Innovation
Innovation / R&D – risks related to innovation and new product development.
Technology – risks related to the company’s reliance on technology.
Cyber Security – risks related to securing the company’s digital assets and from cyber attacks.
Trade Secrets & Patents – risks related to the company’s ability to protect its intellectual property and to infringement claims against the company as well as piracy and unlicensed copying.
5. Ability to Sell
Demand – risks related to the demand of the company’s goods and services including seasonality, reliance on key customers.
Competition – risks related to the company’s competition including substitutes.
Sales & Marketing – risks related to sales, marketing, and distribution channels, pricing, and market penetration.
Brand & Reputation – risks related to the company’s brand and reputation.
6. Macro & Political
Economy & Political Environment – risks related to changes in economic and political conditions.
Natural and Human Disruptions – risks related to catastrophes, floods, storms, terror, earthquakes, coronavirus pandemic/COVID-19.
International Operations – risks related to the global nature of the company.
Capital Markets – risks related to exchange rates and trade, cryptocurrency.