Bank Of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) Risk Factors

In the first and second quarters of 2023, certain specialized banking institutions with elevated concentrations of uninsured deposits experienced large deposit outflows, resulting in the institutions being placed into FDIC receiverships. In addition, media and market coverage of the Bay Area economy and local financial institutions, have generated significant market volatility among publicly traded bank holding companies and, in particular, regional and community banks like the Company. These market developments have negatively impacted customer confidence in the safety and soundness of regional and community banks. As a result, customers may choose to maintain deposits with larger financial institutions or invest in higher yielding short-term fixed income securities, all of which could materially adversely impact the Company's liquidity, loan funding capacity, net interest margin, capital and results of operations. We maintain a well-diversified deposit base, with an estimated 28% of uninsured and/or uncollateralized deposits as of December 31, 2023. Such uninsured deposits were fully covered by the Bank's available funding sources, including unrestricted cash, unencumbered available-for-sale securities, and a total available borrowing capacity of $1.967 billion, or 60% of total deposits, and 213% of estimated uninsured and/or uncollateralized deposits as of December 31, 2023. Excluding zero balance accounts, 59% of deposit balances were held in business accounts with average balances of $120 thousand per account, with the remaining 41% in consumer accounts with average balances of $41 thousand per account as of December 31, 2023. Although we maintain strong liquidity for the normal operations of the Bank, model various stress scenarios, and maintain significant contingent liquidity sources, general depositor concerns given the recent high profile bank closures could lead to deposit outflows from our Bank. Our funding costs increased significantly in 2023 and may continue to increase if our deposits decline and we replace them with more expensive sources of funding, such as FHLB and FRB borrowings, and/or brokered deposits, if customers shift their deposits into higher cost products, or if we raise interest rates to avoid losing deposits. In addition, adverse operating results or changes in industry conditions could lead to difficulty or an inability to access these additional funding sources, constraining our financial flexibility, and ability to originate loans, invest in securities, and distribute dividends to our shareholders. In addition, such a lack of liquidity could result in the sale of securities in an unrealized loss position and/or alter our ability to hold our held-to-maturity securities to their maturity dates. All of these factors could have a material adverse impact on our asset growth, liquidity, business, financial condition, and results of operations.

We invest in significant portions of debt securities issued by government-sponsored enterprises ("GSE"), such as Federal Home Loan Bank ("FHLB"), Federal National Mortgage Association ("FNMA"), and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation ("FHLMC"). We also hold mortgage-backed securities ("MBS") issued by FNMA and FHLMC, both of which have been under U.S. government conservatorship since 2008. While we consider FNMA and FHLMC securities to have low credit risk as they carry the explicit backing of the U.S. government due to the conservatorship, they are not direct obligations of the U.S. government. The fair value of our securities issued or guaranteed by these two GSE entities may be negatively impacted if the U.S. government ceases to provide support to the conservatorship. GSE debt is sponsored but not guaranteed by the federal government and carries implicit backing, whereas government agencies such as Government National Mortgage Association ("GNMA") are divisions of the government whose securities are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Although Congress has taken steps to improve regulation and consumer protection related to the housing finance system (e.g., the Dodd-Frank Act), FNMA and FHLMC have entered their 16th year of U.S. government conservatorship via the Federal Housing Finance Agency ("FHFA"). While proposals to end the conservatorship have considered solutions such as an initial public offering, at the date of this report, its future and ultimate impact on the financial markets and our investments in GSEs are uncertain. While we generally seek to minimize our exposure by strategically diversifying our credit exposure to obligations of issuers in various geographic locations throughout California and the U.S., investing in investment-grade securities, and actively monitoring the creditworthiness of the issuers and/or credit guarantee providers, there is no guarantee that the issuers will remain financially sound or continue their payments on these debentures.

The operation of our business requires us to manage credit risk. As a lender, we are exposed to the risk that our borrowers will be unable to repay their loans according to their terms, and that the collateral securing repayment of their loans, if any, may not be sufficient to ensure repayment. In addition, there are risks inherent in making any loan, including risks with respect to the period of time over which the loan may be repaid, risks relating to proper loan underwriting, risks resulting from changes in economic and industry conditions and risks inherent in dealing with individual borrowers. In order to successfully manage credit risk, we must, among other things, maintain disciplined and prudent underwriting standards and ensure that our bankers follow those standards. The weakening of these standards for any reason, such as an attempt to attract higher yielding loans, a lack of discipline or diligence by our employees in underwriting and monitoring loans, the inability of our employees to adequately adapt policies and procedures to changes in economic or any other conditions affecting borrowers and the quality of our loan portfolio, may result in loan defaults, foreclosures and additional charge-offs and may necessitate that we significantly increase our allowance for credit losses on loans, each of which could adversely affect our net income. As a result, any inability to successfully manage credit risk could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations. We maintain allowances for credit losses on loans and unfunded loan commitments that represent management's best estimate of expected credit losses over the contractual lives of our loans under the current expected credit loss method. The level of the allowance reflects management's continuous evaluation of specific credit risks, loan loss experience, current loan portfolio quality and present and forecasted economic, political and regulatory conditions. The determination of the appropriate level of the allowances inherently involves a high degree of subjectivity and requires us to make significant estimates of current credit risks and trends and future economic forecasts, all of which may undergo material changes. Inaccurate assumptions in appraisals or an inappropriate choice of the valuation techniques may lead to an inadequate level of specific reserve or charge-offs.

Our earnings are largely dependent upon our net interest income, which is the difference between interest income earned on interest-earning assets, such as loans and securities, and interest expense paid on interest-bearing liabilities, such as deposits and borrowed funds. Interest rates are sensitive to many factors outside of our control, including general economic conditions and the policies of various governmental and regulatory agencies and, in particular, the FOMC, which regulates the supply of money and credit in the United States. Changes in monetary policy, including changes in interest rates, can influence not only the interest we receive on loans and securities and interest we pay on deposits and borrowings, but can also affect (i) our ability to originate loans and obtain deposits, (ii) the duration of our securities and loan portfolios, and (iii) the fair value of our financial assets and liabilities. In fact, the FOMC's aggressive interest rate increases, discussed more fully below, negatively affected each of these areas of our business recently. Our portfolio of loans and securities will generally decline in value if market interest rates increase, and increase in value if market interest rates decline. Decreases in the market value of investment securities available for sale negatively impact the Bank's tangible equity through accumulated other comprehensive losses. In addition, our loans and callable mortgage-backed securities are also subject to prepayment risk when interest rates fall, and the borrowers' credit risk may increase in rising rate or recessionary environments. Factors such as inflation, productivity, oil prices, unemployment rates, and global demand play a role in the FOMC's consideration of future rate adjustments. The federal funds rate range remained between 0.0% to 0.25% from March 2020 through the beginning of 2022, putting downward pressure on our asset yields and net interest margin. Beginning in March 2022, the FOMC began successive increases to the federal funds rate due to the evolving inflation risks, complicated by international political unrest and supply chain disruptions. As a result of seven rate adjustments during 2022, the federal funds target rate increased to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% at year-end 2022 and our net interest margin increased gradually over the course of the year. In 2023, on each of February 1st, March 22nd, May 3rd, and July 26th the FOMC increased the target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%. Rising interest rates and first quarter disruptions in the banking industry resulted in rapid increases in the cost of funds through rising deposit costs and increased borrowings, putting pressure on net interest margin starting in the second quarter of 2023. Additional rate increases are not widely anticipated in 2024, as Federal Reserve policymakers continue to monitor inflation and economic developments. See the Net Interest Income section of Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations in ITEM 7 and Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk in ITEM 7A of this report for further discussion related to interest rate sensitivity and our management of interest rate risk.

Because of inflationary pressures and the resulting rapid increases in the federal funds target rate since March 2022, the market value of previously issued government and other fixed income securities has declined significantly. These securities make up a majority of the securities portfolio of most banks in the U.S., including the Company's, resulting in unrealized losses embedded in the held-to-maturity portion of U.S. banks' securities portfolios and unrealized losses on available-for-sale securities reflected in the Company's accumulated other comprehensive income (loss). We maintain an investment securities portfolio to provide liquidity and to generate earnings on funds that have not been loaned to customers while managing our liquidity and interest rate position, seeking a reasonable yield balanced with risk exposure. While it is neither our intention to sell securities at a net loss in the normal course of business, nor were we required to, we did so for strategic purposes in the third and fourth quarters of 2023 as a source of liquidity and to reposition the balance sheet to bolster net interest margin. If the Company were to sell additional securities in an unrealized loss position, it may incur losses that could impair the Company's capital, financial condition, and results of operations and may require the Company to raise additional capital on unfavorable terms, thereby negatively impacting its profitability and potentially causing shareholder dilution.

Loans originated at higher interest rates may be paid off and replaced by new loans with lower interest rates, causing downward pressure on our net interest margin. In addition, our top ten depositor relationships accounted for approximately 8% of total deposit balances at both December 31, 2023 and 2022. The business models and cash cycles of some of our large commercial depositors may also cause short-term volatility in their deposit balances held with us. As our customers' businesses grow, the dollar value of their daily activities may also grow leading to larger fluctuations in daily balances. Any long-term decline in deposit funding would adversely affect our liquidity. For additional information on our management of deposit volatility, refer to the Liquidity section of ITEM 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis, of this report.