BankUnited (BKU) Risk Analysis

The processes we use to forecast future performance and estimate expected credit losses, including in hypothetical periods of stress, the effects of changing interest rates, sources and uses of liquidity, real estate values, and economic trends and indicators on our financial condition and results of operations depend upon the use of analytical and forecasting tools and models. These tools and models reflect assumptions that may prove inaccurate, particularly in times of market stress, volatility or other unforeseen or unprecedented circumstances. Furthermore, even if our assumptions are accurate predictors of future performance, the tools and models that utilize them may prove to be inadequate or inaccurate because of other flaws in their design or implementation. If these tools prove to be inadequate or inaccurate, our strategic planning processes, risk management and monitoring framework, earnings and capital may be adversely impacted.

BankUnited, Inc. as a BHC and BankUnited N.A. are required by Federal banking agencies to maintain specified levels of capital. At a minimum, our capital policy requires us to maintain capital sufficient to meet the "well-capitalized" standard established by capital adequacy guidelines and the regulatory framework for prompt corrective action. While we anticipate that our current capital resources will satisfy our capital requirements for the foreseeable future, we may, at some point need to raise additional capital to support current operations or continued growth. In addition, we may elect to raise capital for strategic reasons even when we are not required to do so. As a publicly traded company, the most likely source of additional capital is the issuance of equity or debt instruments in the capital markets. Our ability to raise capital on favorable terms, or at all, will depend on a variety of factors, many of which are outside of our control, including market conditions, credit availability, our credit rating and credit capacity, and marketability of our stock. Accordingly, we cannot be assured of being able to raise capital when needed or on favorable terms. In addition, if we needed to raise capital in the future, we may have to do so when many other financial institutions are also seeking to raise capital and would then have to compete with those institutions for investors. The inability to raise additional capital on favorable terms when needed could have a materially adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Deposits are typically a relatively low cost and stable source of funding. We compete with banks and other financial service providers for customer funds; as a result, we could lose deposits in the future, clients may shift their deposits into higher cost products, or we may need to raise interest rates to avoid deposit attrition. Funding costs may also increase if deposits are replaced with wholesale funding. Higher funding costs reduce our net interest margin, net interest income, and net income. A portion of our deposit base consists of companies serving the residential real estate eco-system and is exposed to the overall health and level of activity in that eco-system. In a sustained high interest rate environment, the level of residential real estate activity would be expected to decline, which may lead to reduced deposit balances in this vertical.

The U.S. Government's sovereign credit rating was downgraded by a NRSRO in 2023. The impact of future downgrades of the U.S. sovereign credit rating or deterioration in its perceived creditworthiness could adversely affect the U.S. and global financial markets and economic conditions. In addition, disagreement over the federal budget has caused and may cause the U.S. federal government to essentially shut down for periods of time. Future events of this nature could have an adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.

A material portion of our loans are secured by residential or commercial real estate. The ability of our borrowers to repay their obligations and our financial results may therefore be adversely affected by changes in real estate values or in real estate market dynamics. Commercial real estate valuations in particular are highly subjective, as they are based on many assumptions. Such valuations can be significantly affected over relatively short periods of time by changes in business climate, economic conditions, demographic and market trends such as the impact of the ongoing shift to online shopping on retail properties or the evolution of remote and hybrid work on office properties. The value of commercial real estate and ability of commercial real estate borrowers to service debt is also sensitive to occupancy rates, the level of rents, regulatory and tax law changes, interest rates, other operating costs and, in many cases, the results of operations of businesses and other occupants of the real property. The properties securing income-producing investor real estate loans may not be fully leased at the origination of the loans or vacancies may arise during the terms of the loans. A borrower's ability to repay these loans is dependent upon stabilization of the properties and additional leasing through the life of the loan or the borrower's successful operation of a business. Weak economic conditions or demographic and market trends may impair a borrower's business operations, lead to elevated vacancy rates or lease turnover, slow the execution of new leases or result in falling rents. In particular, the office segment continues to be impacted by evolving trends around remote or hybrid work. The ultimate outcome of this trend and, as a result, the level of future demand for office space, remains uncertain. Lease turnover may increase, and tenants may reduce the amount of space leased when existing leases expire. Lower occupancy rates may lead to lower rents and lower valuations of office buildings. These factors could lead to deterioration in fundamentals underlying some of our commercial real estate loans. A sustained higher interest rate environment as well as rising property and casualty insurance and other operating costs have negatively impacted and may continue to negatively impact operating cash flows for some borrowers and the ability of those borrowers to service or refinance outstanding debt. These factors could result in further deterioration in the fundamentals underlying the commercial real estate market and the deterioration in value of some of our loans or the underlying collateral and ultimately to higher loan losses. Similarly, residential real estate valuations can be impacted by housing trends, demographic trends, the availability of financing and property and casualty insurance at reasonable rates, the supply of available housing, governmental policy regarding housing and housing finance and general economic conditions affecting consumers. Real estate values may also be impacted by weather-related events and other man-made or natural disasters, or ultimately, by the impact of climate change. We make credit and reserve decisions based on current and projected real estate values, the current conditions of borrowers, properties or projects and our expectations for the future. If real estate values or fundamentals underlying commercial or residential real estate decline, we could experience higher delinquencies and charge-offs beyond that provided for in the ACL. The underlying collateral for a significant portion of the securities in our investment portfolio also consists of commercial or residential real estate. While we typically invest in senior tranches of these securities and their structures provide significant credit enhancement, the value and performance of underlying collateral is subject to the same risks described above. A deterioration in the value or performance of underlying collateral to an extent that credit enhancement inherent in the structure of the securities is insufficient to protect us from underlying collateral losses would result in the recognition of impairment losses and adversely impact our financial condition, results of operations and capital.

The FRB and FHLB provide important sources of stable, reliable and specifically with respect to the FRB, emergency liquidity to banks including BankUnited. Should the availability, nature, design or provisions of the various liquidity facilities provided by these entities change materially, BankUnited's ability to access operating or contingent liquidity as needed could be adversely impacted. The availability of liquidity from these sources is also dependent on the nature and value, which could be negatively impacted by changes in interest rates or general economic and market conditions, of collateral BankUnited is able to provide and on their evaluation of the Bank's creditworthiness. A significant portion of collateral available to be pledged to the FHLB and FRB consists of loans and securities collateralized by residential and commercial real estate; the value of this collateral is subject to many of the same risks discussed above with respect to the value of real estate collateral for our loans. In 2023, the FHFA, the primary regulator of the FHLB system, completed a comprehensive review of the FHLB system. The review recommended a re-evaluation of many aspects of the regulatory and statutory framework governing the FHLB system and set forth some recommended revisions to that framework. Any future regulatory or legislative action resulting from the comprehensive review could impact the future amount, terms and availability of liquidity provided by the FHLBs to their members, including BankUnited. Our ability to access funds on a timely basis from the FRB and FHLB also depends on our operational readiness; while we test operational readiness regularly and believe our processes and procedures are adequate in this regard, a failure of those processes and procedures could compromise our ability to access needed liquidity.

Our ability to engage in routine funding and other transactions could be adversely affected by the stability and actions of other financial services institutions. Financial services institutions are interrelated as a result of trading, clearing, servicing, counterparty, and other relationships. We have exposure to an increasing number of financial institutions and counterparties. These counterparties include institutions that may be exposed to various risks over which we have little or no control. Adverse developments affecting the overall strength and soundness of the financial services industry as a whole and third parties with whom we have important relationships could have a negative impact on our business even if we are not directly subject to the same adverse developments.

NRSROs regularly evaluate us, and their ratings are based on a number of factors, including our financial strength and conditions affecting the financial services industry generally. In general, ratings agencies base their ratings on many quantitative and qualitative factors, including capital adequacy, liquidity, asset quality, business mix and level and quality of earnings and management, and we may not be able to maintain our current credit ratings. The ratings assigned to the Bank and the Company remain subject to change at any time, and it is possible that any ratings agency will take action to downgrade the Bank and the Company in the future. Additionally, ratings agencies may also make substantial changes to their ratings policies and practices, which may affect our credit ratings. A downgrade of our credit rating, particularly to a level below investment grade, could adversely impact the liquidity or value of our rated securities, our ability to access the capital or certain short-term funding markets, and our cost of capital. Additionally, certain commercial customers could be prohibited from placing deposits with us, impacting our liquidity position.

As a lender, we are exposed to the risk that our customers will be unable to repay their loans according to their terms and that the collateral securing the payment of their loans, if any, may be insufficient to ensure repayment. Credit losses are inherent in the business of making loans. We are also subject to credit risk that is embedded in our securities portfolio. Our credit risk management framework inclusive of our underwriting standards, procedures and policies may not prevent us from incurring substantial credit losses, particularly if economic or market conditions deteriorate. It is difficult to determine or forecast the many ways in which a decline in economic or market conditions may impact the credit quality of our assets.

We maintain an ACL that represents management's estimate of current expected credit losses, or the amount of amortized cost basis not expected to be collected, on our loan portfolio and the amount of credit loss impairment on our available for sale securities portfolio. Determining the amount of the ACL is complex and requires extensive judgment by management about matters that are inherently subjective and uncertain. The measurement of expected credit losses encompasses information about historical events, current conditions and reasonable and supportable economic forecasts. Factors that may be considered in determining the amount of the ACL include, but are not necessarily limited to, product or collateral type, industry, geography, internal risk rating, credit characteristics such as credit scores or collateral values, delinquency rates, historical or expected credit loss patterns and other quantitative and qualitative factors considered by management to have an impact on the adequacy of the ACL and the ability of borrowers to repay their loans. The adequacy of the ACL is also dependent on the effectiveness of the underlying models used in determining the estimate. If management's assumptions and judgments prove to be incorrect, our credit loss models prove to be inaccurate or our processes and controls governing the determination of the amount of the ACL prove ineffective, our ACL may be insufficient and we may be required to increase our ACL. In addition, regulatory authorities periodically review our ACL and may require us to increase our provision for credit losses or recognize further loan charge-offs, based on judgments different from those of our management. Adverse or volatile actual or forecasted economic conditions could make management's estimate even more complex and difficult to determine. Any increase in our ACL will result in a decrease in net income and capital and could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. See Item 7 "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-Analysis of the Allowance for Credit Losses" and "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates-Allowance for Credit Losses."

A significant portion of our loan portfolio is secured by residential or commercial real property. During the ordinary course of business, we may foreclose on and take title to properties securing certain loans, in which case, we are exposed to the risks and costs inherent in the ownership of real estate. The amount that we, as a mortgagee, may realize after a default is dependent upon factors outside of our control, including: (i) general or local economic conditions; (ii) sub-market property values and supply/demand dynamics; (iii) interest rates; (iv) costs of ownership such as real estate taxes, insurance, maintenance; (v) governmental rules and regulations such as but not limited to zoning laws; (vi) natural or man-made disasters; (vii) political or social unrest, crime levels and other conditions in sub-markets or neighborhoods where property is located; and (viii) the ability to maintain occupancy particularly of commercial properties. Additionally, bank-owned properties obtained in foreclosure often sell at a discount to the price that might otherwise be obtained in the market.

Our business and financial performance are materially impacted by market interest rates and movements in those rates. Since a high percentage of our assets and liabilities are interest bearing or otherwise sensitive in value to changes in interest rates, changes in rates, in the shape of the yield curve or in spreads between different types of rates can have a material impact on our financial condition and results of operations and the values of our assets and liabilities. Changes in the value of investment securities available for sale and certain derivatives directly impact equity through adjustments of accumulated other comprehensive income and changes in the values of certain other assets and liabilities may directly or indirectly impact earnings. Changes in the values of assets and liabilities brought about by changes in interest rates, even those that do not directly impact reported GAAP or regulatory capital levels, may impact investors' perceptions of the value of the Company, rating agency opinions, or customers' perceptions of the stability of the Company leading to unanticipated deposit outflows. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors over which we have no control and which we may not be able to anticipate, including general economic conditions and the monetary and fiscal policies of various governmental bodies, particularly the Federal Reserve Board. The impact of changes in interest rates on our business and financial performance may be exacerbated if the extent or pace of those changes are beyond historical norms. Our earnings and cash flows depend to a great extent upon the level of our net interest income. Net interest income is the difference between the interest income we earn on loans, investments and other interest earning assets, and the interest we pay on interest bearing liabilities, such as deposits and borrowings. A flat or inverted yield curve or tightening credit spreads may limit our ability to add higher yielding assets to the balance sheet and reduce the spread between rates paid on interest bearing liabilities and those earned on interest earning assets, placing downward pressure on our net interest margin and net interest income. Our deposit costs tend to be correlated with short-term rates; increases in short-term interest rates or generally tightening liquidity conditions may exert upward pressure on our cost of deposits. Changes in interest rates can increase or decrease our net interest income, because different types of assets and liabilities may react differently, and at different times, to market interest rate changes. If interest bearing liabilities mature or reprice more quickly than interest earning assets in a period of rising rates, net interest income will be reduced. If interest earning assets mature or reprice more quickly than interest bearing liabilities, falling interest rates could reduce net interest income. An increase in interest rates may also reduce the demand for loans and lower-priced deposit products, decrease loan repayment rates and negatively affect borrowers' ability to meet their obligations. A decrease in the general level of interest rates may affect us through, among other things, increased prepayments on higher-yielding fixed rate loans and mortgage-backed securities. Competitive conditions may also impact the interest rates we are able to earn on new loans or are required to pay on deposits, negatively impacting both our ability to grow loans and deposits and our net interest income. Our ability to manage interest rate risk could be negatively impacted by unpredictable behavior of depositors in various interest rate environments. A rapid or unanticipated increase or decrease in interest rates, changes in the shape of the yield curve or in spreads between rates could have an adverse effect on our net interest margin and results of operations. We attempt to manage interest rate risk by monitoring and managing the rates, maturity, repricing, mix and balances of the different types of interest earning assets and interest bearing liabilities and through the use of hedging instruments; however, interest rate risk management techniques are not precise, and we may not be able to successfully manage our interest rate risk. The modeling techniques we use to manage interest rate risk are based on a wide variety of assumptions generally derived from historical data and patterns, and may fail to accurately predict the impact of future movements in interest rates on our financial performance. Assumptions about depositor behavior are integral to interest rate risk modeling and management; technological advances enabling depositors to move money more quickly and to do business with a wide variety of financial services providers not in physical proximity to those depositors as well as the evolving landscape of the financial services industry has made predictive modeling of depositor behavior increasingly difficult. See Item 7 "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-Interest Rate Risk" for a discussion on the methodology and assumptions used by the Company in managing its interest rate risk.

Effective liquidity management is essential for the operation of our business. We require sufficient liquidity to meet customer loan requests, customer deposit maturities and withdrawals and other cash commitments under both normal operating conditions and under extraordinary or unpredictable circumstances. Our access to funding sources in amounts adequate to finance our activities on terms that are acceptable to us could be impaired by factors or events that affect us specifically, other financial institutions, or the financial services industry or economy generally. Factors that could detrimentally impact our access to liquidity at an acceptable price, or at all include, but are not limited to: (i) national, to a lesser extent global, and regional economic and market conditions; (ii) interest rates; (iii) competition for depositor funds from banks and other investment alternatives; (iv) the availability of sufficient collateral that is acceptable to the FHLB and the Federal Reserve Bank, both of which are significant sources of contingent liquidity for us; (v) fiscal and monetary policy; (vi) public and market perception of BankUnited specifically, peer banks and the banking sector more broadly; (vii) our ability to access the capital markets as a potential liquidity source; and (viii) regulatory requirements or changes. Our access to liquidity in the form of deposits may also be affected by the liquidity needs of our depositors. A substantial portion of our liabilities consist of deposit accounts that are payable on demand or upon several days' notice, while by comparison, the majority of our assets are loans, which cannot be called or sold in the same time frame. Although we have historically been able to replace maturing deposits and borrowings as necessary, we might not be able to replace such funds in the future. A failure to maintain adequate liquidity could materially and adversely affect our ability to sustain business operations, our financial condition or results of operations.