Blue Dolphin Energy Company (BDCO) Risk Analysis

The Nixon refinery periodically undergoes planned shutdowns to repair, restore, refurbish, or replace refinery equipment. Occasionally, unplanned temporary shutdowns occur. Unplanned downtime can occur for a variety of reasons; however, common reasons for unplanned downtime include repair/replacement of disabled equipment, crude deficiencies associated with cash constraints, high temperatures, weather, and power outages. We are particularly vulnerable to operation disruptions because all our refining operations occur at a single facility. Any scheduled or unscheduled downtime results in lost margin opportunity, reduced refined products inventory, and potential increased maintenance expense, all of which could reduce our ability to meet our payment obligations. During the twelve-month period ended December 31, 2023, the refinery experienced 12 days of downtime – 9 days for maintenance and repairs and 3 days for a turnaround. During the twelve-month period ended December 31, 2022, the refinery experienced 22 days of downtime – 13 days for maintenance, 5 days due to an unnamed winter ice storm, and 4 days due to lack of crude associated with cash constraints. Any scheduled or unscheduled downtime will result in lost margin opportunity, potential increased maintenance expense, and a reduction of refined products inventory, which could reduce our ability to meet our payment obligations.

Our suppliers source a substantial amount, if not all, of our crude oil and condensate from the Eagle Ford Shale. Consequently, we may be disproportionately exposed to the impact of delays or interruptions of supply from that region caused by transportation capacity constraints, curtailment of production, unavailability of equipment, facilities, personnel or services, significant governmental regulation, severe weather, plant closures for scheduled maintenance, or the interruption of oil or natural gas being transported from wells in that area.

Crude oil refining is primarily a margin-based business. To improve margins, we must maximize yields of higher value finished petroleum products and minimize costs of feedstocks and operating expenses. When the spread between these commodity prices decreases, our margins are negatively affected. Although an increase or decrease in the commodity price for crude oil and other feedstocks generally results in a similar increase or decrease in commodity prices for finished petroleum products, typically there is a time lag between the two. The effect of crude oil commodity price changes on our finished petroleum product commodity prices therefore depends, in part, on how quickly and how fully the market adjusts to reflect these changes. Unfavorable margins may have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows, and liquidity. The markets and commodity prices for crude oil and condensate and our finished products have historically been volatile, are likely to continue to be volatile, and depend on factors beyond our control. These factors include: - The level of domestic and offshore production. - The availability of crude oil and U.S. and global demand for this commodity. - A general downturn in economic conditions. - The impact of weather, including abnormally mild or extreme winter or summer weather that cause lower or higher energy usage for heating or cooling purposes, respectively, or extreme weather that may disrupt our operations or related upstream or downstream operations. - Actions taken by foreign oil and gas producing and importing nations, including the ability or willingness of OPEC and OPEC+ to set and maintain pricing and production levels for oil, which, for example, had a pronounced effect on global commodity prices for crude oil and the volatility thereof in 2020 during the onset and spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. - The availability of local, intrastate, and interstate transportation systems. - U.S. and global economic conditions, including inflationary pressures, further increases in interest rates, and a general economic slowdown or recession. - geopolitical tensions, including conflicts and war, such as ongoing military conflicts in Ukraine and Israel and escalations in the Middle East. - The availability and marketing of competitive fuels. - The extent of governmental regulation and taxation.

BOEM Supplemental Pipeline Bonds.  To cover the various obligations of lessees and rights-of-way holders operating in federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico, BOEM evaluates an operator's financial ability to carry out present and future obligations to determine whether the operator must provide additional security beyond the statutory bonding requirements. Such obligations include the cost of plugging and abandoning wells and decommissioning pipelines and platforms at the end of production or service activities. Once plugging and abandonment work has been completed, the collateral backing the financial assurance is released by BOEM. Historically, BDPL maintained $0.9 million in pipeline bonds with BOEM to decommission its trunk pipeline offshore in federal waters.  In March 2018, BOEM ordered BDPL to provide additional financial assurance totaling approximately $4.8 million for five (5) existing pipeline rights-of-way, an increase of approximately $3.9 million.  In June 2018, BOEM issued BDPL INCs for each right-of-way that failed to comply. BDPL appealed the INCs to the IBLA.  Although the IBLA granted multiple extension requests, the Office of the Solicitor of the U.S. Department of the Interior indicated that BOEM would not consent to further extensions. The solicitor's office signaled that BDPL's adherence to decommissioning its offshore pipelines and platform would likely help in future discussions with BOEM related to the INCs. Fulfilling abandonment obligations related to the subject assets will significantly reduce or eliminate the amount of supplemental pipeline bonds required by BOEM, which may serve to partially or fully resolve the INCs. BDPL's pending appeal of the BOEM INCs does not relieve BDPL of its obligations to provide additional financial assurance or of BOEM's authority to impose financial penalties. There can be no assurance that we will be able to meet additional supplemental pipeline bond requirements. If BDPL is required by BOEM to provide significant additional supplemental pipeline bonds or is assessed significant penalties under the INCs, we will experience a significant and material adverse effect on our operations, liquidity, and financial condition. We cannot predict the outcome of the supplemental pipeline bond INCs.  Accordingly, we did not record a liability on our consolidated balance sheets as of December 31, 2023 and 2022.  At both December 31, 2023 and 2022, BDPL maintained approximately $0.9 million in pipeline rights-of-way surety bonds issued to BOEM through RLI Corp. ("RLI"). However, as noted below, RLI desires to reduce its risk profile related to BDPL's bonds.  Of the pipeline rights-of-way bonds, $0.7 million was credit-backed and $0.2 million was cash-backed. RLI Surety Bonds.  Blue Dolphin currently has several surety bonds through RLI as required by different regulatory agencies, including BOEM and the Railroad Commission of Texas. The bonds total approximately $1.25 million in the aggregate, of which $0.2 million is collateralized in cash. In June, July, and December 2023, RLI demanded Blue Dolphin provide additional cash collateral or a letter of credit totaling approximately $1.0 million or provide bond exonerations and replacement bonds.  Although Blue Dolphin received a proposal from another surety to replace the RLI bonds at a 50% collateral requirement, management was hopeful Blue Dolphin and RLI could reach an understanding whereby the existing bonds could be maintained until BDPL completed decommissioning of the subject assets. Abandonment of BDPL's offshore pipeline and platform assets will eliminate the need for all BOEM supplemental pipeline bonds, reducing the amount of surety bonds held by RLI from $1.25 million to $0.25 million.  On February 19, 2024, RLI filed suit against Blue Dolphin, BDPL, and BDEX seeking an injunction for the payment of approximately $1.0 million of additional collateral for the bonds. BSEE Offshore Platform Inspections and Decommissioning Obligations. BDPL has pipelines and platform assets subject to BSEE's idle iron regulations.  Idle iron regulations require lessees and rights-of-way holders to permanently abandon and/or remove platforms and other structures when they are no longer useful for operations.  Until such structures are abandoned or removed, lessees and rights-of-way holders are required to inspect and maintain the assets in accordance with regulatory requirements. Platform Inspections. We are required by BSEE to perform annual structural inspections of our offshore platform, as well as to perform monthly platform checks of navigational aids, fog horns, and lifesaving equipment. In March 2023, BSEE issued BDPL an INC for failing to perform the required 2021 and 2022 structural surveys for the GA-288C platform and for failing to provide BSEE with such survey results. In April 2023, BSEE granted BDPL an extension for completing the required platform inspection until May 30, 2023.  Although BDPL requested a second extension, BSEE denied BDPL's request.  BDPL completed the platform inspection on August 26, 2023 and submitted the survey report to BSEE on September 6, 2023. Because BDPL failed to comply with the INC within the allotted timeframe, BSEE proposed an administrative civil penalty of approximately $0.2 million on October 24, 2023.  The proposed administrative civil penalty was finalized on January 26, 2024, for $0.2 million.  We recorded a liability for the maximum proposed amount of $0.2 million on our consolidated balance sheets within accrued expenses and other current liabilities as of December 31, 2023.  BDPL filed an appeal to the civil penalty on March 25, 2024. Decommissioning Obligations.  Because our pipelines and facilities assets have been inactive for an extended period, BOEM mandated that they be decommissioned. In October 2023, management met BSEE to discuss BDPL's path forward for meeting decommissioning requirements. Management worked with a consultant to develop a decommissioning plan, and BDPL submitted its decommissioning plan to the agency in November 2023. Although the decommissioning of these assets was delayed due to cash constraints associated with historical net losses and the impact of COVID-19, a significant portion of the decommissioning project was completed from late December 2023 to mid-February 2024. Additional work is planned for the second quarter of 2024. Based on resource availability and projected weather conditions, we believe decommissioning and remediation of all associated INCs will be completed by the end of the second quarter 2024.  However, BDPL's work plan does not relieve BDPL of its obligations to comply with BSEE's mandate or BSEE's authority to impose financial penalties. Further, there can be no assurance that BDPL can complete anticipated work or predict the outcome of BSEE INCs. Accordingly, we did not record a liability related to potential penalties on our consolidated balance sheets as of December 31, 2023 and 2022. Due to BDPL's failure to comply with BSEE requirements, BDPL could still be subject to regulatory oversight and enforcement, including but not limited to failing to correct an INC, civil penalties, and revocation of BDPL's operator designation, which could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows, and liquidity. At December 31, 2023 and 2022, BDPL maintained $4.5 million and $3.7 million, respectively, in AROs related to the abandonment of these assets, which amount does not include potential penalties.   OSHA Settlement Agreement. In September 2022, we entered into an Informal Settlement Agreement with OSHA related to process safety management violations at the Nixon refinery. Under the agreement, we paid penalties totaling $0.05 million in November 2022. We remediated a significant portion of identified violations before December 31, 2022. We remediated the remaining violations on a progressive schedule by April 2023.   TCEQ Proposed Agreed Order. In October 2021, LRM received a proposed agreed order from the TCEQ for alleged solid and hazardous waste violations discovered during an investigation from January to March 2020.  The proposed agreed order assessed an administrative penalty of $0.4 million and identified actions needed to correct the alleged violations. In September 2023, TCEQ presented its final penalty offer of $0.35 million, which LRM accepted. Although LRM believes the penalty matter is resolved, LRM expects to continue working with TCEQ to remediate certain open items fully. At December 31, 2023, we reflected approximately $0.4 million related to this matter on our consolidated balance sheets within accrued expenses and other current liabilities.

Increasing attention to ESG matters, including those related to climate change and sustainability, increasing societal, investor and legislative pressure on companies to address ESG matters, may result in increased costs, reduced demand for our products, reduced profits, increased investigations and litigation or threats thereof, negative impacts on our stock price and access to capital markets, and damage to our reputation. Some investors have been divesting and promoting divestment of or screening out of fossil fuel equities and urging lenders to limit funding to companies engaged in the extraction of fossil fuel reserves. Further, voluntary carbon-related and target-setting frameworks have developed, and continue to develop, that limit the ability of certain sectors, including the oil and gas sector, from participating, and may result in exclusion of our equity from being included as an investment option in portfolios. In addition, organizations that provide information to investors on corporate governance and related matters have developed ratings processes for evaluating companies on their approach to ESG matters, including climate change and climate-related risks (including entities commonly referred to as "raters and rankers"). Such ratings are used by some investors to inform their investment and voting decisions. Unfavorable ESG ratings and investment community divestment initiatives, among other actions, may lead to negative investor sentiment toward us and to the diversion of investment to other industries, which could have a negative impact on our stock price and our access to and costs of capital. Additionally, evolving expectations on various ESG matters, including biodiversity, waste, and water, may increase costs, require changes in how we operate and lead to negative shareholder sentiment.

Our primary operating assets are in Nixon, Texas in the Eagle Ford Shale, and we market our refined products in a single, relatively limited geographic area. In addition, we have facilities and related onshore pipeline assets in Freeport, Texas, and offshore pipelines and oil and gas properties in the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, our operations are more susceptible to regional economic conditions than our more geographically diversified competitors. Any changes in market conditions, unforeseen circumstances, or other events affecting the area in which our assets are located could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations. These factors include, among other things, changes in the economy, weather, demographics, and population.

Terrorist activities, anti-terrorist efforts, and other armed conflicts involving the U.S. or other countries may adversely affect national and global economies and could prevent us from meeting our financial and other obligations. For example, Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and Hamas' October 2023 surprise attack on Israel and resulting sanctions and export controls by the U.S. and other countries could have wide-ranging impacts that have yet to be identified. Given the evolving geopolitical situation, there are many unknown factors and events that could materially impact our operations, which may be temporary or permanent in nature. These tensions also create heightened risk of a terrorist attack or armed conflict involving the U.S. If any of these events occur, the resulting political instability and societal disruption could reduce overall demand for oil and natural gas, potentially putting downward pressure on demand for our production and causing a reduction in our revenues. Oil and natural gas related facilities could be direct targets of terrorist attacks, and our operations could be adversely impacted if infrastructure integral to our operations or the operations of our customers' is destroyed or damaged. Costs for insurance and other security may increase as a result of these threats, and some insurance coverage may become more difficult to obtain, if available at all.

Historically, refining margins have been volatile, and they are likely to continue to be volatile in the future. Our financial results are primarily affected by the relationship between our crude oil and condensate acquisition costs, the commodity prices at which we ultimately sell our refined products, and the volume of refined products that we sell, all of which depend upon numerous factors beyond our control. The commodity prices at which we sell our refined products are strongly influenced by the commodity price of crude oil. If crude oil commodity prices increase, our ‘refinery operations' business segment margins will fall unless we can pass along these commodity price increases to our wholesale customers. Increases in the selling prices for refined products typically trail the rising crude oil cost and may be difficult to implement when crude oil costs increase dramatically over a short period. Sharp decreases in refined product market demand, such as the record low demand that occurred because of widespread COVID-19 related travel restrictions, can adversely affect our refining margins.