The Group is sensitive to the deterioration of economic conditions or the alteration of the institutional environment of the countries in which it operates, especially Spain, Mexico and Turkey, which respectively represented 54.1%, 21.8% and 10.7% of the Group's assets as of December 31, 2024 (59.0%, 22.4% and 8.8% as of December 31, 2023, respectively, and 60.0% 20.0% and 9.3%, as of December 31, 2022, respectively). Additionally, the Group is exposed to sovereign debt, especially sovereign debt related to these countries. For summarized information on the macroeconomic conditions that these countries are currently facing, and which could significantly affect the Group, see "Item 5. Operating and Financial Review and Prospects-Operating Results-Operating Environment".
The global economy is currently facing a number of extraordinary challenges. The war between Ukraine and Russia and armed conflicts and political instability in the Middle East have led to significant disruption, instability and volatility in global markets, particularly in energy markets. Uncertainty about the future development of these conflicts is high. One of the main risks is that they could generate new supply shocks, pushing growth downward and inflation upward (including by contributing to increases in the prices of oil, gas and other commodities and disrupting supply chains), and paving the way for macroeconomic and financial instability episodes.
Geopolitical and economic risks have also increased in recent years as a result of trade tensions between the United States and China, Brexit and the rise of populism, among other factors. Growing tensions and the rise of populism may lead, among other things, to a deglobalization of the world economy, an increase in protectionism, a general reduction of international trade and a reduction in the integration of financial markets, any of which could materially and adversely affect the Group's business, financial condition and results of operations.
The countries where we operate are also vulnerable to certain country-specific challenges. In Spain, political, regulatory and economic uncertainty has increased since the 2023 general elections, and there is a risk that policies could be adopted that have an adverse impact on the economy or the Group. There is also a risk that political tensions in other European countries could affect Spain. In Mexico, there is high uncertainty on the impact of the recently approved constitutional reforms, as well as on the policies of the new local government and the new U.S. administration (in particular, if protective measures adopted by the United States become more aggressive or persist over time, which could adversely impact the country's economic growth). In Turkey, while there are signs of normalization in economic policy in general, and monetary policy in particular, since the general elections held in May 2023, macroeconomic conditions remain relatively unstable, characterized by pressures on the Turkish lira, high inflation, a significant trade deficit, low central bank's foreign reserves and high external financing costs. In addition, regulatory and macroprudential policies affecting the banking sector, including measures adopted to increase the weight of Turkish lira-denominated assets and liabilities of the banking system, and economic conditions in Turkey, including changes in official interest rates (with Turkey's real interest rate still being negative given the high inflation) have affected and may continue to affect the Group's results. There is also uncertainty about the impact of the recent developments in the Middle East on Turkey. In particular, recent regime changes in Syria create opportunities, such as a potential increase in exports and lower migration pressures, but also risks, which could cause greater volatility of Turkish financial assets, among other possible consequences.
In Argentina, the risk of economic and financial turbulence persists in a context in which the new government has substantially modified the economic policy framework and has focused its efforts on implementing strong fiscal and monetary adjustments to reduce inflation. In Colombia and Peru, climate factors, political tensions and greater social conflict could have a negative impact on the economy.
Further, the policies to be adopted by the new U.S. government are an additional source of uncertainty for the Mexican and global economy. During February 2025, the U.S. government imposed certain tariffs (some of which were subsequently delayed) on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, which resulted in China adopting retaliatory tariffs. If the announced tariffs affecting Mexico are ultimately implemented, this may have a material adverse effect on Mexico's economy. These and other policies of the new administration-including fiscal, regulatory, industrial or foreign policies-could slow U.S. or global economic growth (especially, if they give rise to trade wars), increase inflation, affect interest rates or otherwise increase financial and macroeconomic instability, any of which could adversely affect the Group's business, financial condition and results of operations.
Moreover, official interest rates, the regulatory and macroprudential policies affecting the banking sector and currency depreciation have affected and may continue to affect the Group's results. In recent years, the Group's results of operations have been particularly affected by the increases in interest rates adopted by central banks in an attempt to tame inflation, contributing to the rise in both interest revenue and interest expenses. The persistence of interest rates at relatively high levels or any increase in interest rates in the future could adversely affect the Group by reducing the demand for credit and leading to an increase in the default rate of its borrowers and other counterparties. Moreover, the Group's results of operations have been affected by inflation in all countries in which BBVA operates, especially Turkey and Argentina, and by the depreciation of certain currencies, especially the Turkish lira and the Argentine peso.
In the current context, one of the main risks is that inflation remains high, either due to new supply shocks, related for example to the geopolitical and political risks referred to above or climate events, or due to demand factors, caused by an excessively expansionary fiscal policy, the robustness of labor markets, or other factors. Significant inflationary pressures could lead to interest rates remaining higher than currently forecasted, which could negatively affect the macroeconomic environment and financial markets.
Another macroeconomic risk is the possibility of a sharp global growth slowdown. In a context marked by uncertainty and still elevated interest rates, labor markets and aggregate demand could weaken more significantly than expected. Moreover, despite increasing economic stimulus measures, growth in China could slow sharply, with a potentially negative impact on many geographical areas, due to tensions in real estate markets and economic sanctions imposed by the United States, among other factors. Furthermore, there is an increasing risk of sovereign debt tensions, given the high debt levels in developed and emerging countries, relatively high interest rates and weak economic growth prospects.
Further, the Group is exposed to, among other risks, the following general risks with respect to the economic and institutional environment in the countries in which it operates: a deterioration in economic activity, including recession scenarios; more persistent inflationary pressures, which could trigger a more severe tightening of monetary conditions; stagflation due to more intense or prolonged supply shocks such as, for example, an increase in oil and gas prices to very high levels, which would have a negative impact on disposable income levels in areas that are net energy importers, such as Spain or Turkey, to which the Group is particularly exposed; changes in exchange rates; an unfavorable evolution of the real estate market; changes in the institutional environment of the countries in which the Group operates, which could give rise to sudden and sharp drops in GDP and/or changes in regulatory or government policy, including in terms of exchange controls and restrictions on the distribution of dividends or the imposition of new taxes or charges; high public debt or external deficit, which could lead to a downward revision of the credit ratings of the sovereign debt and even a possible default or restructuring of such debt; and episodes of volatility in the financial markets, which could cause significant losses for the Group.
Any of these factors may have a material adverse effect on the Group's business, financial condition and results of operations.