Banner (BANR) Risk Analysis

We are an entity separate and distinct from our principal subsidiary, the Bank, and derive substantially all our revenue at the holding company level in the form of dividends from that subsidiary. Accordingly, we are, and will be, dependent upon dividends from the Bank to pay the principal of and interest on our indebtedness to satisfy our other cash needs and to pay dividends on our common stock. The Bank's ability to pay dividends is subject to its ability to earn net income and to meet certain regulatory requirements. In the event the Bank is unable to pay dividends to us, we may not be able to pay dividends on our common stock at the same rate or at all. Also, our right to participate in a distribution of assets upon a subsidiary's liquidation or reorganization is subject to the prior claims of the subsidiary's creditors.

Our securities portfolio may be impacted by fluctuations in market value, potentially reducing accumulated other comprehensive income and/or earnings. These fluctuations may result from changes in market interest rates, rating agency actions in respect to the securities, defaults by the issuer or with respect to the underlying securities, lower market prices, or limited investor demand. Our available-for-sale debt securities in an unrealized loss position are evaluated to determine whether the decline in fair value has resulted from credit losses or other factors. If a credit loss is identified, an allowance for credit losses is recorded, resulting in a charge against earnings. Because available-for-sale securities are reported at estimated fair value, changes in interest rates can adversely affect our financial condition. The fair value of fixed-rate securities generally moves inversely with interest rate changes. Unrealized gains and losses on these securities are reported as a separate component of AOCI, net of tax. Decreases in the fair value of securities-available-for-sale resulting from increases in interest rates could have an adverse effect on shareholders' equity. Additionally, there is no assurance that the declines in market value will not result in credit losses, which would lead to additional provisions for credit losses that could materially affect our net income and capital levels.

Our mortgage banking operations provide a significant portion of our non-interest income, primarily through gains on the sale of one-to-four-family residential loans. These loans are sold pursuant to programs offered by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, and non-Government Sponsored Enterprise ("GSE") investors, which collectively account for a substantial portion of the secondary market for such loans. Changes to these programs, our eligibility to participate, the criteria for loan acceptance, or related laws could materially and adversely affect our results of operations. Mortgage banking is generally considered a volatile source of income because it depends largely on loan volume, which is influenced by prevailing market interest rates. In a rising or higher interest rate environment, our originations of mortgage loans may decrease, resulting in fewer loans that are available to be sold to investors. This would result in a decrease in mortgage banking revenues and a corresponding decrease in non-interest income. Our results of operations are also affected by the amount of non-interest expense associated with mortgage banking activities, including salaries and employee benefits, occupancy, equipment, data processing, and other operating costs. During periods of reduced loan demand, we may face challenges in reducing these expenses proportionately, which could adversely impact our results of operations. Although we sell loans into the secondary market without recourse, we provide customary representations and warranties to buyers. If these representations and warranties are breached, we may be required to repurchase the loans, potentially incurring a loss.

We use derivative instruments to economically hedge mortgage loans held for sale and interest rate lock commitments to offset changes in fair value resulting from changing interest rate environments. Our hedging strategies are susceptible to prepayment risk, basis risk, market volatility and changes in the shape of the yield curve, among other factors. In addition, hedging strategies rely on assumptions and projections regarding assets and general market factors. If these assumptions and projections prove to be incorrect or our hedging strategies do not adequately mitigate the impact of changes in interest rates, we may incur losses that would adversely impact earnings.

Lending money is a substantial part of our business and each loan carries a certain risk that it will not be repaid in accordance with its terms or that any underlying collateral will not be sufficient to assure repayment.  This risk is affected by, among other things: - cash flow of the borrower and/or the project being financed;- in the case of a collateralized loan, the changes and uncertainties as to the future value of the collateral;- the duration of the loan;- the character and creditworthiness of the borrower; and - changes in economic and industry conditions. We maintain an allowance for credit losses that we believe is appropriate to provide for lifetime expected credit losses in our loan portfolio. The appropriate level of the allowance for credit losses is determined by Management through periodic reviews and consideration of several factors, including, but not limited to: - our collective loss reserve, for loans evaluated on a pool basis with similar risk characteristics based on our life of loan historical default and loss experience, certain macroeconomic factors, reasonable and supportable forecasts, regulatory requirements, Management's expectations of future events and certain qualitative factors; and - our individual loss reserve, based on our evaluation of individual loans that do not share similar risk characteristics and the present value of the expected future cash flows or the fair value of the underlying collateral. Determination of the appropriate level of the allowance for credit losses inherently involves a high degree of subjectivity and requires us to make significant estimates of current credit risks and future trends, all of which may undergo material changes. If our estimates are incorrect, the allowance for credit losses may not be sufficient to cover the expected losses in our loan portfolio, resulting in the need for increases in our allowance for credit losses through the provision for credit losses which is recorded as a charge against income. Management also recognizes that significant new growth in loan portfolios, new loan products and the refinancing of existing loans can result in portfolios comprised of unseasoned loans that may not perform in a historical or projected manner and will increase the risk that our allowance may be insufficient to absorb losses without significant additional provision. Deterioration in economic conditions affecting borrowers, new information regarding existing loans, identification of additional problem loans and other factors, both within and outside of our control, may require an increase in the allowance for credit losses. If current conditions in the housing and real estate markets weaken, we expect we will experience increased delinquencies and credit losses. The ongoing Los Angeles wildfires that began in January 2025 present heightened risks to our loan portfolio and the adequacy of our allowance for loan losses. Borrowers impacted by the fires may face financial hardship, leading to increased loan defaults and reduced repayment capacity. Damage to or destruction of properties securing loans may result in collateral value depreciation, further increasing potential losses. Additionally, inadequate insurance coverage or denied claims may limit recovery efforts and contribute to greater uncertainty in estimating credit losses. Local economic disruptions, such as business closures and job losses, may impair borrowers' ability to meet financial obligations, requiring adjustments to our credit loss assumptions. The concentration of our loan portfolio in fire-prone areas further increases exposure, while the growing frequency and severity of wildfires due to climate change heightens long-term risks. These factors may necessitate increases to our allowance for loan losses to account for elevated credit risks. While we continuously evaluate our allowance to ensure it reflects current and expected risks, there can be no assurance it will be sufficient to cover actual losses, particularly in the context of ongoing and future wildfire-related challenges. Bank regulatory agencies also periodically review our allowance for credit losses and may require an increase in the provision for credit losses or the recognition of further loan charge-offs, based on judgments different than those of Management. If charge-offs in future periods exceed the allowance for credit losses, we may need additional provision to increase the allowance for credit losses. Any increases in the allowance for credit losses will reduce net income and, most likely, capital, and may have a material negative effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

In addition to first-lien one- to four-family residential real estate lending, we originate construction and land and land development loans, commercial and multifamily real estate loans, commercial business loans, agricultural mortgage and business loans, and consumer loans, primarily within our market areas.  As of December 31, 2024, we had $9.76 billion outstanding in these non-first-lien one- to four-family residential real estate loan categories, compared to $9.29 billion as of December 31, 2023. These loans present risks distinct from those associated with first-lien one- to four-family residential real estate lending for a number of reasons, including the following: - Construction and Land Loans. At December 31, 2024, construction and land loans were $1.52 billion, or 14% of our total loan portfolio. This type of lending carries inherent uncertainties in estimating a property's future value upon project completion and the overall cost (including interest) of the project.  These challenges arise from difficulties in estimating construction costs, assessing market value upon project completion, and accounting for the impact of government regulations on real property. Accurately evaluating the total funds required to complete a project and determining the loan-to-value ratio for the completed project is often challenging. If construction cost estimates are inaccurate, we may be required to advance funds beyond the original loan commitment to ensure project completion. Additionally, if the appraised value of the completed project is overstated, we may have inadequate security for loan repayment, resulting in potential losses. Other risks include disputes between borrowers and builders, the failure of builders to pay subcontractors, and the concentration of higher loan amounts among a limited number of builders. A downturn in housing or the real estate market could increase delinquencies, defaults and foreclosures, and significantly impair the value of our collateral and our ability to sell the collateral upon foreclosure. Multiple loans to a single builder amplify these risks, as adverse developments in one loan or credit relationship could result in significant losses. At December 31, 2024, non-performing construction and land loans totaled $4.0 million, or 11% of total non-performing loans. Some construction loans include interest reserves, where accumulated interest is added to the loan principal rather than requiring borrower payments during the loan term. Rising market interest rates can rapidly deplete these reserves before project completion and increase borrowing costs for end-purchasers, potentially reducing their ability to finance the home or diminishing demand for the project. Properties under construction are also challenging to sell and typically need to be completed before a sale can occur, complicating the management of problem construction loans. This may require advancing additional funds or contracting with another builder to complete the project, exposing us to market risks and potential losses on unpaid loan funds and associated costs. Loans on land under development or held for future construction carry additional risks due to the lack of income generation and reduced collateral liquidity, both of which are highly influenced by supply and demand dynamics. These loans often involve substantial disbursements, with repayment dependent on the success of the project and the borrower's ability to sell or lease the property or obtain permanent financing. Our construction loans include both those secured by sales contracts or permanent loans for finished homes and speculative construction loans, where end-purchasers may not be identified during or after the construction period. Speculative construction loans present additional risks related to finding buyers for completed projects. To mitigate this risk, we actively monitor the number of unsold homes in our construction loan portfolio and local housing markets to maintain a balance between home sales and new loan originations. We also limit the number of speculative construction loans approved for each builder based on factors such as financial capacity, market demand, and the ratio of sold to unsold inventory. Additionally, we diversify risk by working with a large number of small- to mid-sized builders across a broad geographic region, encompassing multiple sub-markets within our service area. - Commercial and Multifamily Real Estate Loans. At December 31, 2024, commercial and multifamily real estate loans were $4.76 billion, or 42% of our total loan portfolio. Many of these loans involve higher principal amounts than other types of loans, and some commercial borrowers maintain multiple loans with us. Consequently, an adverse development with respect to a single loan or credit relationship can expose us to a significantly greater risk of loss compared to an adverse development with respect to a one- to four-family residential mortgage loan. Repayment of these loans typically depends on the income generated from the property securing the loan, in amounts sufficient to cover operating expenses and debt service. This income may be adversely affected by changes in the economy or local market conditions. In addition, many of our commercial and multifamily real estate loans are not fully amortizing and include large balloon payments at maturity. These balloon payments may require the borrower to either sell or refinance the underlying property, potentially increasing the risk of default or non-payment. If we foreclose on a commercial or multifamily real estate loan, the holding period for the collateral is typically longer than for one- to four-family residential loans as a result of the smaller pool of potential buyers. At December 31, 2024, non-performing commercial and multifamily real estate loans totaled $2.2 million, or 6% of total non-performing loans. - Commercial Business Loans.  At December 31, 2024, commercial business loans were $2.42 billion, or 21% of our total loan portfolio. These loans are primarily made based on the borrower's cash flow and, secondarily, on the underlying collateral provided by the borrower. A borrower's cash flow can be unpredictable, and the value of collateral securing these loans may fluctuate. Most often, this collateral includes accounts receivable, inventory, equipment, or real estate. For loans secured by accounts receivable, the availability of funds for repayment may depend substantially on the borrower's ability to collect amounts due from its clients. Other types of collateral securing commercial business loans may depreciate over time, be difficult to appraise, lack liquidity, or fluctuate in value depending on the success of the business.  At December 31, 2024, non-performing commercial business loans totaled $7.1 million, or 19% of total non-performing loans. - Agricultural Loans.  At December 31, 2024, agricultural loans were $340.3 million, or 3% of our total loan portfolio. Repayment of agricultural loans depends on the successful operation of the business and is subject to numerous factors beyond the control of either us or the borrowers. These factors include adverse weather conditions that prevent crop planting or limit yields (such as hail, drought, and floods), loss of crops or livestock due to disease or other causes, declines in market prices for agricultural products (both domestically and internationally), and the impact of government regulations (including changes in price supports, subsidies, tariffs, and environmental policies). Additionally, many farms rely on a limited number of key individuals whose injury or death could significantly affect the farm's successful operation. If the cash flow from a farming operation is diminished, the borrower's ability to repay the loan may be impaired. As a result, agricultural loans may pose a greater degree of risk than other types of loans, particularly those that are unsecured or secured by rapidly depreciating assets, such as farm equipment (some of which is highly specialized and may have little or no resale market), or assets like livestock or crops. In such cases, repossessed collateral from a defaulted agricultural loan may not provide an adequate source of repayment for the outstanding loan balance due to the greater likelihood of damage, loss, or depreciation, or because the collateral's assessed value exceeds its eventual realization value. At December 31, 2024, non-performing agricultural loans totaled $8.5 million, or 23% of total non-performing loans. - Consumer Loans.  At December 31, 2024, consumer loans were $721.4 million, or 6% of our total loan portfolio.  Home equity lines of credit, which represented 87% of our total consumer loan portfolio at December 31, 2024, generally entail greater risk than one- to four-family residential mortgage loans where we are in the first lien position. For home equity lines secured by a second mortgage, it is less likely that we will recover all our loan proceeds in the event of default as the value of the property must be sufficient to cover repayment of the first mortgage loan and foreclosure-related costs before the second mortgage loan balance is repaid. For consumer loans that are unsecured or secured by rapidly depreciating assets, such as automobiles, any repossessed collateral from a defaulted loan may not provide an adequate source of repayment of the outstanding loan balance as a result of the higher likelihood of damage, loss, or depreciation. The remaining deficiency often does not justify further substantial collection efforts against the borrower. Additionally, consumer loan collections depend on the borrower's financial stability, making them more vulnerable to adverse events such as job loss, divorce, illness, or personal bankruptcy. Furthermore, federal and state laws, including bankruptcy and insolvency laws, may limit the amount recoverable on these loans. Loans we purchased or indirectly originated may also expose us to claims and defenses by borrowers. In such cases, borrowers may assert claims and defenses against us as an assignee that they could have raised against the seller of the underlying collateral. At December 31, 2024, non-performing consumer loans totaled $4.9 million, or 13% of total non-performing loans.

We are required by federal regulatory authorities to maintain adequate levels of capital to support our operations.  We may at some point, however, need to raise additional capital to support continued growth or be required by our regulators to increase our capital resources. Any capital we obtain may result in the dilution of the interests of existing holders of our common stock. Our ability to raise additional capital, if needed, will depend on conditions in the capital markets at that time, which are outside our control, and on our financial condition and performance.  Accordingly, we cannot make assurances that we will be able to raise additional capital if needed on terms that are acceptable to us, or at all.  If we cannot raise additional capital when needed, our ability to further expand our operations could be materially impaired and our financial condition and liquidity could be materially and adversely affected.  In addition, if we are unable to raise additional capital when required by our bank regulators, we may be subject to adverse regulatory action.

As part of our general growth strategy, we periodically expand our business through acquisitions. While our primary focus is organic growth, from time to time we engage in discussions with potential acquisition targets as part of our ordinary business activities. There can be no assurance that we will successfully identify suitable acquisition candidates, complete acquisitions, successfully integrate acquired operations into our existing operations, or expand into new markets. Future acquisitions may dilute shareholder value or may have an adverse effect upon our operating results during the integration process. In addition, acquired operations may fail to achieve the profitability levels of our existing operations or meet performance expectations. Transaction-related expenses may also adversely affect our earnings, which could, in turn, negatively impact the value of our stock. Acquiring banks, bank branches, or businesses involves several risks, including: - we may be exposed to potential asset quality issues or unknown or contingent liabilities of the banks, businesses, assets, and liabilities we acquire. If these issues or liabilities exceed our estimates, our results of operations and financial condition may be materially negatively affected;- higher than expected deposit attrition;- potential diversion of our management's time and attention;- prices at which acquisitions can be made fluctuate with market conditions. We have experienced times during which acquisitions could not be made in specific markets at prices we considered acceptable and expect that we will experience this situation in the future;- the acquisition of other entities generally requires integration of systems, procedures and personnel of the acquired entity into our company to make the transaction economically successful. This integration process is complicated and time-consuming and can also be disruptive to the clients of the acquired business. If the integration process is not conducted successfully and with minimal adverse effect on the acquired business and its clients, we may not realize the anticipated economic benefits of particular acquisitions within the expected time frame, and we may lose clients or employees of the acquired business. We may also experience greater than anticipated client losses even if the integration process is successful;- to finance an acquisition, we may borrow funds, thereby increasing our leverage and diminishing our liquidity, or raise additional capital, which could dilute the interests of our existing shareholders;- we have completed various acquisitions over the years that enhanced our rate of growth.  We may not be able to sustain our past rate of growth or to grow at all in the future; and - to the extent our costs of an acquisition exceed the fair value of the net assets acquired, the acquisition will generate goodwill that must be analyzed for impairment at least annually.