American Express (AXP) Risk Analysis

We face significantly heightened regulatory expectations and scrutiny in the U.S. and globally, which significantly affects our business and requires continual enhancement of our compliance efforts. Supervision efforts and the enforcement of existing laws and regulations impact the scope and profitability of our existing business activities, limit our ability to pursue certain business opportunities and adopt new technologies, compromise our competitive position, and affect our relationships with Card Members, partners, merchants, service providers and other third parties. New laws or regulations could similarly affect our business, increase the costs and complexity of doing business, impact what we are able to charge for, or offer in connection with, our products and services, impose conflicting obligations, and require us to change certain of our business practices and invest significant management attention and resources, all of which could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. Political developments can result in legislative and regulatory uncertainty and changes to supervisory and enforcement priorities. In addition, legislators and regulators around the world are aware of each other's approaches to the regulation of the financial services industry. Consequently, a development in one country, state or region may influence regulatory approaches in another. If we fail to satisfy regulatory requirements or maintain our financial holding company status, our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected, and we may be restricted in our ability to take certain capital actions (such as declaring dividends or repurchasing outstanding shares) or engage in certain business activities or acquisitions, which could compromise our competitive position. Additionally, our banking regulators have wide discretion in the examination and the enforcement of applicable banking statutes and regulations and may restrict our ability to engage in certain business activities or acquisitions or require us to maintain more capital. In 2024, we became a Category III firm for purposes of the U.S. federal bank regulatory agencies' tailoring framework, resulting in us becoming subject to heightened regulatory expectations and more stringent regulatory requirements. As we continue to grow, these expectations and requirements may further increase, such as if we become a Category II firm, which may increase our compliance costs and adversely affect our business. Legislators and regulators continue to focus on the operation of card networks, including interchange fees paid to card issuers in payment networks such as Visa and Mastercard, network routing practices and the fees merchants are charged to accept cards. While in some cases our business is subject to exemptions related to certain of these regulations, there is no guarantee that such exemptions will continue to be available and even where we are not directly regulated, regulation of bankcard fees significantly negatively impacts the discount revenue derived from our business, including as a result of downward pressure on our discount rate from decreases in competitor pricing in connection with caps on interchange fees. In some cases, regulations also extend, or may extend, to certain aspects of our business, such as network and cobrand arrangements, new products or services we may offer, or the terms of card acceptance for merchants, including terms relating to non-discrimination and honor-all-cards. For example, we have exited our network licensing businesses in the EU and Australia as a result of regulation in those jurisdictions. In addition, there is uncertainty as to when or how interchange fee caps and other provisions of payments legislation might apply when we work with cobrand partners and agents in the EU. See "Supervision and Regulation - Payments Regulation" under "Business" for more information. Given differing interpretations by regulators and participants in cobrand arrangements, we are subject to regulatory action, penalties and the possibility we will not be able to maintain our existing cobrand and agent relationships in the EU. In addition, a number of federal and state laws to regulate various aspects of network operations are being considered or have passed, including regarding information associated with electronic transactions (such as the use of specific merchant categories codes or limitations on the use of transaction data) and pricing of electronic transactions (such as interchange fees on sales tax or gratuities). Legislators and regulators also continue to focus on consumer protection, including product design and pricing constructs, account management and security, credit bureau reporting, disclosure rules, marketing and debt collection practices. This focus has included fees associated with card and banking products, such as a rule issued by the CFPB related to credit card fees for late payments (which is currently stayed); interest rates, such as recent proposals to cap credit card interest rates; rewards programs, such as the recent inquiries by the CFPB and DOT focused on credit card and airline rewards programs; and factors considered by financial institutions in providing services, such as "fair access" laws. Any new requirements or increased enforcement of existing requirements could materially and adversely impact our revenue growth and profitability, including, as a result of increased scrutiny of our pricing, underwriting and account management practices; the imposition of fines and customer remediation; higher compliance costs; reputational harm; restrictions on our ability to issue cards, appropriately price for the value of our products or work with certain business partners; and changes to our business practices generally. We are subject to significant supervision and regulation with respect to compliance with AML/CFT laws, sanctions regimes and anti-corruption laws in numerous jurisdictions. As regulators increase their focus in these areas, new technologies such as digital currencies develop, near real-time money movement solutions are adopted, we introduce new products like checking accounts and geopolitical tensions increase, we face increased costs related to oversight, supervision and potential fines. Our AML/CFT, sanctions and anti-corruption compliance programs have become the subject of heightened scrutiny, and we are working to make enhancements to our existing programs, policies and procedures and to identify and remediate deficiencies. For example, we recently voluntarily reported certain transactions and accounts to OFAC, some of which related to Iran, as described in "Supervision and Regulation - Anti-Money Laundering, Countering the Financing of Terrorism, Economic Sanctions and Anti-Corruption Compliance" under "Business." Errors, failures or delays in complying with AML/CFT, sanctions and anti-corruption laws, deficiencies in our related compliance programs or association of our business with money laundering, terrorist financing, tax fraud or other illicit activities or sanctioned persons, entities, governments or countries can give rise to significant supervisory, criminal and civil proceedings and lawsuits, which could result in significant penalties and forfeiture of assets, loss of licenses or restrictions on business activities, or other enforcement actions, and our reputation may suffer due to our customers' association with certain countries, persons or entities or the existence of any such transactions. Additionally, our AML/CFT, sanctions and anti-corruption compliance programs may limit our ability to pursue certain business opportunities or affect our relationships with certain partners, service providers and other third parties. See "Supervision and Regulation" under "Business" for more information about certain laws and regulations to which we are subject and their impact on us.

At any given time, we are involved in a number of legal proceedings, including class action lawsuits, mass arbitrations and similar actions. Many of these actions include claims for substantial compensatory or punitive damages and require us to incur significant costs for legal representation, arbitration fees or other legal or related services. While we have historically relied on our arbitration clause in agreements with customers to limit our exposure to class action litigation, there can be no assurance that we will continue to be successful in enforcing our arbitration clause in the future, including as a result of legal challenges to, and new regulations affecting, our arbitration provisions, and claims of the type we previously arbitrated could be subject to the complexities, risks and costs associated with class action cases. The continued focus of merchants on issues relating to the acceptance of various forms of payment may lead to additional litigation and other legal actions. Given the inherent uncertainties involved in litigation, and the very large or indeterminate damages sought in some matters asserted against us, there is significant uncertainty as to the ultimate liability we may incur from litigation. We expect that financial institutions, such as us, will continue to face significant regulatory scrutiny, with regulators taking formal enforcement actions against financial institutions in addition to addressing supervisory concerns through non-public supervisory actions or findings, which could involve restrictions on our activities, among other limitations, that could adversely affect our business. In addition, a violation of law or regulation by another financial institution could give rise to an investigation by regulators and other governmental agencies of the same or similar practices by us. Further, a single event may give rise to numerous and overlapping investigations and proceedings. External publicity concerning investigations can increase the scope and scale of investigations and lead to further regulatory inquiries. We are also involved at any given time with governmental and regulatory inquiries, investigations and proceedings. Regulatory scrutiny has continued to increase in a number of areas, and regulatory action could subject us to significant fines, penalties or other requirements resulting in Card Member reimbursements, increased expenses, limitations or conditions on our business activities, and damage to our reputation and our brand, all of which could materially adversely affect our business and results of operations. For example, as previously disclosed, we entered into agreements to resolve governmental investigations related to historical sales practices for certain U.S. small business customers, which are described in more detail in Note 12 to the "Consolidated Financial Statements." In addition, we are cooperating with ongoing regulatory inquiries concerning our rewards and benefits programs, as described in "Supervision and Regulation" under "Business."

The payments industry is highly competitive, and we compete with networks, issuers, acquirers, and other payment service providers and methods of payment, including paper-based transactions (e.g., cash and checks) and electronic transfers (e.g., wire transfers and ACH), as well as evolving and growing alternative mechanisms, systems and products (e.g., web- and mobile-based payment platforms). If we are not able to differentiate ourselves from our competitors, develop compelling value propositions for our customers and/or effectively grow in areas such as digital payments and emerging technologies, we may not be able to compete effectively. We believe Visa and Mastercard are larger than we are in most countries based on purchase volume. As a result, card issuers and acquirers on the Visa and Mastercard networks may be able to benefit from the dominant position, scale, resources, marketing and pricing of those networks. Our business may also be negatively affected if we are unable to continue increasing merchant acceptance (including by merchants that accept cards on the Visa and Mastercard networks) and perceptions of coverage, or if our Card Members do not experience welcome acceptance of our cards. Some of our competitors have substantially greater scale and resources than we have and may offer richer value propositions or a wider range of programs and services than we offer or may use more effective strategies to acquire and retain more customers, capture a greater share of spending and borrowings, develop more attractive cobrand card and other partner programs, obtain more favorable terms with merchants and maintain greater merchant acceptance than we have. Competition may also intensify as participants in the payments industry merge or enter into joint ventures or other business combinations that compete with our products and services. Government actions or initiatives may also provide competitors with increased opportunities to derive competitive advantages and may create new competitors, including in some cases a government entity. We may not be able to compete effectively against these threats or respond or adapt to changes in consumer spending and borrowing or merchant acceptance as effectively as our competitors. Costs such as Card Member rewards and Card Member services expenses could continue to increase as we evolve our value propositions, including in response to increased competition. Spending on our cards could continue to be impacted by increasing usage of credit and debit cards issued on other networks and real-time settlement transactions, such as bank transfers, as well as adoption of alternative payment mechanisms, systems and products. The fragmentation of customer spending, such as to take advantage of different merchant or card incentives, as a result of point-of-sale practices that impact merchant acceptance (e.g., surcharging or differential acceptance) or for convenience with technological solutions, may continue to increase. Revolving credit balances on our cards could also be impacted by alternative financing providers, such as point-of-sale lenders and buy now, pay later products. To the extent other payment and financing mechanisms, systems and products continue to successfully expand, our discount revenues earned from Card Member spending and our net interest income earned from Card Member borrowing could be negatively impacted. In addition, companies that control access to consumer and merchant payment method choices at the point of sale or through digital wallets, commerce-related experiences, mobile applications or other technologies could choose not to accept, suppress use of, or degrade the experience of using our products or could restrict our access to our customers and transaction data. Such companies could also require payments from us to participate in such digital wallets, experiences or applications or negotiate incentives or pricing concessions, impacting our profitability on transactions. The competitive value of our data and demand for our products and services may also be diminished as traditional and non-traditional competitors use other, new data sources and technologies to derive similar insights and by certain regulations. Open banking initiatives that are increasingly being promoted by governments and regulators may result in a number of challenges to our business model, such as disintermediating us from our customers, steering customers away from our products and services or decreasing our attractiveness to partners. Competitors have also sought to create their own integrated payments platforms, and may have competitive advantages in doing so as compared to our business. To the extent we expand into, or further grow in, new business areas, such as new products and services that complement our card products, and new geographic regions, we will face competitors with more experience and more established relationships with relevant customers, regulators and industry participants, which could adversely affect our ability to compete. Laws and business practices that favor local competitors, require card transactions to be routed over domestic networks or prohibit or limit foreign ownership of certain businesses could limit our growth in international regions. We may face additional compliance and regulatory risks to the extent that we expand into new business areas, and we may need to dedicate more expense, time and resources to comply with regulatory requirements than our competitors, particularly those that are not regulated financial institutions. Many of our competitors are subject to different, and in some cases, less stringent, legislative and regulatory regimes, and some may have lower cost structures and more agile business models and systems. More restrictive laws and regulations that do not apply to all of our competitors can put us at a disadvantage, including prohibiting us from engaging in certain transactions, regulating our business practices or adversely affecting our cost structure.

In certain countries, such as Australia, Canada (other than in the Province of Quebec) and certain Member States in the EU, and in certain states in the United States, merchants are permitted by law to engage in surcharging, steering or other differential acceptance practices for certain card purchases and certain merchants and merchant organizations continue to push for these practices in other jurisdictions. In jurisdictions allowing surcharging, we have seen an increase in merchant surcharging on American Express cards, particularly in certain merchant categories, and in some cases, either the surcharge is greater than that applied to Visa and Mastercard cards or Visa and Mastercard cards are not surcharged at all (practices that are known as differential surcharging), even though there are many cards issued on competing networks that have an equal or greater cost of acceptance for the merchant. We also encounter merchants that accept our cards, but tell their customers that they prefer to accept another type of payment or otherwise seek to suppress use of our cards or certain of our cards, such as limiting the use of our cards for certain transactions. Our Card Members value the ability to use their cards where and when they want to, and we, therefore, take steps to meet our Card Members' expectations and to protect the American Express brand by prohibiting discrimination through provisions in our merchant contracts, including non-discrimination and honor-all-cards provisions, subject to local legal requirements. We have increasingly relied on merchant acquirers, aggregators and processors to manage certain aspects of our merchant relationships. When we work with such third parties, we are dependent on them to promote and support the acceptance and usage of our cards, but they may have business interests, strategies or goals that are inconsistent with ours. Recently introduced products, such as debit cards on the American Express network, could fail to gain market acceptance and American Express cards could become less desirable to consumers and businesses generally due to surcharging, steering or other forms of discrimination, which could result in a decrease in cards-in-force, coverage and transaction volumes. The impact could vary depending on such factors as: the industry or manner in which a surcharge is levied; how Card Members are surcharged or steered to other card products or payment forms at the point of sale; the ease and speed of implementation for merchants, merchant acquirers, aggregators, processors or other merchant service providers, including as a result of new or emerging technologies; the size and recurrence of the underlying charges; and whether and to what extent these actions are applied to other forms of payment, including whether it varies depending on the type of card (e.g., credit or debit), product, network, acquirer or issuer. Discrimination against American Express cards could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations, particularly where it only or disproportionately impacts credit card usage or card usage generally, our Card Members or our business.

Market risk includes the loss in value of portfolios and financial instruments due to adverse changes in market variables, which could negatively impact our financial condition. We have experienced realized and unrealized losses in our Amex Ventures™ equity investments and may experience further losses in the future. As of December 31, 2024, we held approximately $1.2 billion of investment securities, primarily consisting of debt securities, and equity investments, including certain equity method investments, totaling approximately $2.0 billion. Negative market conditions, changes in valuations or increases in default rates or bankruptcies with respect to these investments, due to economic conditions, business performance or otherwise, could have a material adverse impact on the value of our investments, potentially resulting in impairment charges. Defaults, threats of defaults or economic disruptions, even in countries or territories in which we do not have material investment exposure, conduct business or have operations, could adversely affect us.

Geopolitical conditions, terrorist attacks, military conflicts, supply chain issues, natural disasters, severe weather, widespread health emergencies or pandemics, information or cybersecurity incidents (including intrusion into or degradation or unavailability of systems or technology by cyberattacks), operational incidents and other catastrophic events can have a material adverse effect on our business. Political and social conditions, including geopolitical instability (such as from tensions involving China and the U.S.), fiscal and monetary policies (including developments related to the U.S. federal deficit, debt ceiling, government shutdowns and other budgetary issues), trade wars and tariffs, labor shortages, regional or domestic hostilities, economic sanctions and the prospect or occurrence of more widespread conflicts could also negatively affect our business, operations and partners, consumer and business spending, including travel patterns and business investment, and demand for credit. Pandemics and other health emergencies can have widespread and unpredictable impacts on global society, economic conditions and consumer and business behavior, which may reoccur or occur over an extended duration, such as the macroeconomic and behavioral impacts during the COVID-19 pandemic. Because we derive a portion of our revenues from travel-related spending and many of our partners' businesses relate to travel, our business is sensitive to impacts to travel and tourism, such as health and safety concerns and limitations on travel and mobility. In addition, disruptions in air travel and other forms of travel can result in the payment of claims under travel protection products we offer. A number of actions are taking place across the globe that impact geopolitical stability. Several countries are considering or have implemented tariffs or other trade barriers or restrictions, as well as other measures affecting cross-border commerce and the flow of information, which could have broad economic consequences, impact global supply chains and negatively affect our business, customers and partners. There are multiple ongoing military conflicts (such as the Russia-Ukraine and Middle East conflicts) and geopolitical tensions may result in additional conflicts or escalate existing conflicts. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we announced that we suspended business operations in Russia and Belarus, and these conflicts have led to economic uncertainty and market disruptions, including the imposition of sanctions and export controls. The broader consequences remain uncertain, but geopolitical conditions may adversely affect macroeconomic conditions and our business in a number of ways, including regional instability, increased prevalence and sophistication of cyberattacks, potential retaliatory action against companies such as us, further sanctions activity and related regulatory scrutiny, increased inflation, further increases or fluctuations in commodity and energy prices, decreases in global travel and further disruptions to the global supply chain. If international political instability and geopolitical tensions continue or increase, our business and results of operations could be harmed. Hurricanes, wildfires and other natural disasters have impacted, and may continue to impact, spending and credit performance in the areas affected. For example, there can be no assurance as to the ultimate impact of the Los Angeles area wildfires on spending levels and credit performance. Disasters and catastrophic events, and the impact of such events on certain industries or the overall economy, could have a negative effect on our business, results of operations and infrastructure, including our technology and systems. Climate-related risks may exacerbate certain of these threats, including the frequency and severity of weather-related events. Card Members in California, Florida, New York, Texas, Georgia and New Jersey account for a significant portion of U.S. consumer and small business billed business and Card Member loans, and our results of operations could be impacted by events or conditions that disproportionately or specifically affect one or more of those states.

Our ability to obtain financing in the debt capital markets for unsecured term debt and asset securitizations is dependent on financial market conditions. Disruptions, uncertainty or volatility across the financial markets, as well as adverse developments affecting our competitors and the financial industry generally, could negatively impact market liquidity and limit our access to funding required to operate our business. Such market conditions may also limit our ability to replace, in a timely manner, maturing liabilities, satisfy regulatory capital requirements and access the funding necessary to grow our business. In some circumstances, we may incur an unattractive cost to raise capital, which could decrease profitability and significantly reduce financial flexibility. Additional factors affecting the extent to which we may securitize loans and receivables in the future include the overall credit quality of our loans and receivables, the costs of securitizing our loans and receivables, the demand for credit card asset-backed securities and the legal, regulatory, accounting or tax rules affecting securitization transactions and asset-backed securities, generally. Our liquidity and cost of funds would also be adversely affected by the occurrence of events that could result in the early amortization of our existing securitization transactions. For a further discussion of our liquidity and funding needs, see "Consolidated Capital Resources and Liquidity" under "MD&A."