Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) Risk Analysis

The success of our business depends primarily upon our ability to identify, develop and commercialize messenger RNA medicines. Our research programs may initially show promise in identifying potential product candidates, yet fail to yield product candidates for clinical development for a number of reasons, including: - our research methodology or that of our strategic alliance partners may be unsuccessful in identifying potential product candidates;   - potential product candidates may be shown to have harmful side effects or may have other characteristics that may make the products unmarketable or unlikely to receive marketing approval; or   - our strategic alliance partners may change their development profiles for potential product candidates or abandon a therapeutic area. If any of these events occur, we may be forced to abandon our development efforts for a program or programs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business and could potentially cause us to cease operations. Research programs to identify new product candidates require substantial technical, financial and human resources. We may focus our efforts and resources on potential programs or product candidates that ultimately prove to be unsuccessful.

Before obtaining marketing approval from regulatory authorities for the sale of product candidates, we or our strategic alliance partners must conduct extensive clinical trials to demonstrate the safety and efficacy of the product candidates in humans. Clinical trials are expensive, difficult to design and implement, can take many years to complete and are uncertain as to the outcome. A failure of one or more clinical trials can occur at any stage of testing. The outcome of preclinical studies and early clinical trials may not be predictive of the success of later clinical trials, and interim results of a clinical trial do not necessarily predict final results. Moreover, preclinical and clinical data are often susceptible to varying interpretations and analyses, and many companies that have believed their product candidates performed satisfactorily in preclinical studies and clinical trials have nonetheless failed to obtain marketing approval for their products. Furthermore, even if prior animal studies have demonstrated the potential safety and efficacy of our product candidates, there can be no guarantee that such results will be reproducible in preclinical studies and clinical trials involving human subjects. Events which may result in a delay or unsuccessful completion of clinical development include: - delays in reaching an agreement with the FDA or other regulatory authorities on final trial design;   - delays in submitting or acceptance of, an application for authorization to administer an investigational new drug product to humans through the submission or acceptance of an IND application to the FDA, or foreign regulatory authority;   - imposition of a clinical hold of our clinical trial operations or trial sites by the FDA or other regulatory authorities;   - delays in reaching agreement on acceptable terms with prospective contract research organizations ("CROs") and clinical trial sites;   - our inability to adhere to clinical trial requirements directly or with third parties such as CROs;   - clinical trial site or CRO non-compliance with GCPs, GLPs, or other regulatory requirements;   - inability or failure of clinical trial sites to adhere to the clinical trial protocol;   - delays in obtaining required IRB approval at each clinical trial site, or an IRB suspending or terminating a trial;   - delays in recruiting suitable patients to participate in a trial;   - delays in the testing, validation, manufacturing and delivery of the product candidates to the clinical sites;   - delays in having patients complete participation in a trial or return for post-treatment follow-up;   - delays caused by patients dropping out of a trial due to protocol procedures or requirements, product side effects or disease progression;- clinical sites dropping out of a trial to the detriment of enrollment;   - time required to add new clinical sites; or   - delays by our contract manufacturers to produce and deliver sufficient supply of clinical trial materials. If we or our strategic alliance partners are required to conduct additional clinical trials or other testing of any product candidates beyond those that are currently contemplated, are unable to successfully complete clinical trials of any such product candidates or other testing, or if the results of these trials or tests are not positive, are only modestly positive or if there are safety concerns, we or our strategic alliance partners may: - be delayed in obtaining marketing approval for our future product candidates;   - not obtain marketing approval at all;   - obtain approval for indications or patient populations that are not as broad as originally intended or desired;   - obtain approval with labeling that includes significant use or distribution restrictions or safety warnings;   - be subject to additional post-marketing testing requirements; or   - have the product removed from the market after obtaining marketing approval. Our product development costs will also increase if we experience delays in testing or marketing approvals. We face risks that clinical trials may not begin as planned, may need to be restructured or may not be completed on schedule, or at all. Significant clinical trial delays also could shorten any periods during which we may have the exclusive right to commercialize our product candidates or could allow our competitors to bring products to market before we do, which would impair our ability to successfully commercialize our product candidates. Any inability to timely and successfully complete preclinical and clinical development, whether independently or with our strategic alliance partners, could result in additional costs to us or impair our ability to generate revenues from product sales, regulatory and commercialization milestones and royalties.

Identifying and qualifying patients to participate in clinical studies of our product candidates is critical to our success. The timing of our clinical studies depends in part on the speed at which we can recruit patients to participate in testing our product candidates, and we may experience delays in our clinical studies if we encounter difficulties in enrollment. In addition, certain conditions for which we plan to evaluate our current product candidates are rare genetic diseases, and have limited patient pools from which to draw for clinical studies. For example, we estimate that approximately 8,000 patients in the developed world suffer from late-onset OTC deficiency, for which LUNAR-OTC is being studied. In addition to the rarity of these diseases, the eligibility criteria of our clinical studies will further limit the pool of available study participants as we will require patients to have specific characteristics that we can measure or to assure their disease is either severe enough or not too advanced to include them in a study. The process of finding and diagnosing patients may prove costly, especially since the rare diseases we are studying are commonly underdiagnosed. We also may not be able to identify, recruit, and enroll a sufficient number of appropriate patients to complete our clinical studies because of demographic criteria for prospective patients, the perceived risks and benefits of the product candidate under study, the proximity and availability of clinical study sites for prospective patients, and the patient referral practices of physicians. The availability and efficacy of competing therapies and clinical studies can also adversely impact enrollment. If we are unable to promptly enroll an adequate number of patients in our studies for the foregoing or other reasons, the timeline for conducting studies and obtaining regulatory approval of potential products will be delayed, the commercial prospects of our product candidates will be harmed, and our ability to generate product revenue from any of these product candidates could be delayed or prevented. Furthermore, many of the factors that cause, or lead to, a delay in the commencement or completion of clinical studies may also ultimately lead to the denial of regulatory approval of our product candidates. Delays in achieving approval to conduct and in completing our clinical studies will increase our costs, slow down our product candidate development and approval process, and jeopardize our ability to commence product sales and generate revenue. Any of these occurrences may harm our business, financial condition, and prospects significantly.

Undesirable side effects caused by our product candidates could cause us or regulatory authorities to interrupt, delay or halt clinical trials and could result in a more restrictive label or the delay or denial of regulatory approval by the FDA or other regulatory authorities. It is likely that there will be side effects associated with use of our product candidates. If results of our trials reveal a high and unacceptable severity and prevalence of side effects, our trials could be suspended or terminated and the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities could order us to cease further development of, or deny approval of, our product candidates for any or all targeted indications. Such side effects could also affect patient recruitment, the ability of enrolled patients to complete the trial or result in potential product liability claims. Any of these occurrences may materially and adversely affect our reputation and financial condition. Further, clinical trials by their nature test product candidates in only samples of the potential patient populations. With a limited number of patients and limited duration of exposure in such trials, rare and severe side effects of our product candidates may not be uncovered until a significantly larger number of patients are exposed to the product candidate. If any of our product candidates receives marketing approval, and causes serious, unexpected, or undesired side effects, a number of potentially significant negative consequences could result after we begin commercialization, including: - regulatory authorities may withdraw, suspend, or limit their approval of the product or impose restrictions on its distribution in the form of a modified risk evaluation and mitigation strategy;- regulatory authorities may require the addition of labeling statements, such as warnings or contraindications;   - we may be required to change the way the product is administered or conduct additional clinical trials or post-marketing surveillance;   - we could be sued and held liable for harm caused to patients; or   - our reputation may suffer. Any of these events could prevent us or our partners from achieving or maintaining market acceptance of the affected product and could substantially increase the costs of commercializing our future products and impair our ability to generate revenues from the commercialization of these products either by us or by our strategic alliance partners.

The extent and timing of any product revenue is highly unpredictable because regulatory authorities may not complete their review processes in a timely manner, or we may not be able to obtain regulatory approval for many reasons including: - regulatory authorities disagreeing with the design or implementation of our clinical trials;   - such authorities may disagree with our interpretation of data from preclinical studies or clinical trials;   - such authorities may not accept clinical data from trials which are conducted at clinical facilities or in countries where the standard of care is potentially different from that of the United States, such as our phase 1/2/3 clinical trial of ARCT-154 conducted in Vietnam;- unfavorable or unclear results from our clinical trials or results that may not meet the level of statistical significance required by the FDA or foreign regulatory agencies for approval;   - serious and unexpected drug-related side effects experienced by participants in our clinical trials or by individuals using drugs similar to our product candidates;   - the population studied in the clinical trial may not be sufficiently broad or representative to assure safety in the full population for which we seek approval;   - we may be unable to demonstrate that a product candidate's clinical and other benefits outweigh its safety risks;   - such authorities may not agree that the data collected from clinical trials of our product candidates are acceptable or sufficient to support the submission of an NDA or other submission or to obtain regulatory approval in the United States or elsewhere, and such authorities may impose requirements for additional preclinical studies or clinical trials;   - such authorities may disagree regarding the formulation, labeling and/or the specifications of our product candidates;   - such authorities may find deficiencies in the manufacturing processes or facilities of manufacturers with which we contract for clinical and commercial supplies; or   - regulations or interpretations of such authorities may significantly change in a manner rendering our or any of our potential future collaborators' clinical data insufficient for approval. Additional delays may result if an FDA advisory committee recommends restrictions on approval or recommends non-approval. In addition, we or our strategic alliance partners may experience delays or rejections based upon additional government regulation from future legislation or administrative action, or changes in regulatory agency policy during the period of product development, clinical trials and the review process.

As a result of our limited financial and human resources, we will have to make strategic decisions as to which targets and product candidates to pursue and may forego or delay pursuit of opportunities with other product candidates or for other indications that later prove to have greater commercial potential. Our resource allocation decisions may cause us to fail to capitalize on viable commercial products or profitable market opportunities. If we do not accurately evaluate the commercial potential or target market for a particular product candidate, we may relinquish valuable rights to that product candidate through strategic alliance, licensing or other royalty arrangements in cases in which it would have been more advantageous for us to retain sole development and commercialization rights to such product candidate, or we may allocate internal resources to a product candidate in a therapeutic area in which it would have been more advantageous to enter into a partnering arrangement.

Other than the approval of ARCT-154 in Japan, we have no products approved for commercial marketing and all of our product candidates are in preclinical or clinical development. Before obtaining regulatory approval for the commercial distribution of our product candidates, we or an existing or future collaborator must conduct extensive preclinical studies and clinical trials to demonstrate the safety and efficacy of our product candidates. The success of our product candidates will depend on several factors, including the following: - successfully designing preclinical studies which may be predictive of clinical outcomes;   - successful enrollment in clinical trials and completion of preclinical and clinical studies with favorable results;   - receipt of marketing approvals from applicable regulatory authorities;   - obtaining and maintaining patent and trade secret protection for future product candidates;- establishing and maintaining manufacturing relationships with third parties or establishing our own manufacturing capability; and   - successfully commercializing our products, if approved, including successfully establishing a sales force, marketing and distribution infrastructure, whether alone or in collaboration with others. If we do not achieve one or more of these factors in a timely manner or at all, we could experience significant delays or an inability to successfully complete the development or commercialization of our product candidates, which would materially harm our business.

As the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries expand and more patents are issued and as our activities expand and mature, the risk increases that our product candidates and activities may be subject to claims of infringement of the patent rights of others. This risk is significantly heightened because of the many patents and other intellectual property rights related to messenger RNA and its delivery. Prior to and since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, many companies have devoted substantial effort to developing vaccines and therapeutics that use mRNA technology and have developed their own intellectual property rights, applied for patents, and licensed rights to patents held by other companies or research institutions. Some of these patents may have broad claims that cover our current or expected activities. We are aware of patent challenging and enforcement activities in connection with technologies used in mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines. The outcomes of such activities and the advancement of our programs could give rise to third party claims of infringement against us and our partners. Parties making claims against us may obtain injunctive or other equitable relief, which could effectively block our and our partners' ability to further develop and commercialize products based on our platform. Defense of these claims, regardless of their merit, would involve substantial litigation expense and would be a substantial diversion of employee and financial resources from our business. In the event of a successful claim of infringement against us, we may have to pay substantial damages, including treble damages and attorneys' fees for willful infringement, pay significant royalties, or try to redesign our infringing products, which may be impossible or require substantial time and monetary expenditure, further delaying and commercialization and substantially reducing potential market revenue. In order to continue development, manufacture or sale of a product, we may need to obtain a license from the owner of intellectual property, which may not be available on commercially reasonable terms or at all.

We may need to obtain licenses from owners of intellectual property to advance our research or allow commercialization of our product candidates, and we have done so from time to time. If we fail to obtain any of these licenses at a reasonable cost and on reasonable terms, we would be unable to further develop and commercialize one or more of our product candidates, which could harm our business significantly.

Competitors may infringe our patents or the patents of our licensees. To counter infringement or unauthorized use, we may be required to file infringement claims, which can be expensive and time-consuming. In addition, in an infringement proceeding, a court may decide that a patent of ours or of our licensees is not valid or is unenforceable, or may refuse to stop the other party from using the technology at issue on the grounds that our patents do not cover the technology in question. An adverse result in any litigation or defense proceedings could put one or more of our patents at risk of being invalidated or interpreted narrowly and could put our patent applications at risk of not issuing. Our defense in a lawsuit may fail and, even if successful, may result in substantial costs and distract our management and other employees. We may not be able to prevent, alone or with our licensees, misappropriation of our intellectual property rights, particularly in countries where the laws may not protect those rights as fully as in the United States. Furthermore, because of the substantial amount of discovery required in connection with intellectual property litigation, there is a risk that some of our confidential information could be compromised by disclosure during the course of litigation. There could also be public announcements of the results of hearings, motions or other interim proceedings or developments. If securities analysts or investors perceive these results to be negative, it could have a material adverse effect on the price of our common stock.

We are relying on our partner, CSL Seqirus, and CSL Seqirus' partner, Meiji Seika Pharma (Meiji), to conduct further development and commercialization of our COVID-19 vaccine candidate. Even if our COVID-19 vaccine containing an updated variant strain achieves approval in Japan, purchasers in Japan might not purchase any doses of our vaccine, due to competition, pricing, product profile or other factors. Japanese regulatory agencies and purchasers might require involvement of Japanese companies in the domestic production of our COVID-19 vaccine. If any such Japanese companies do not participate or fail in such activities, then our and our partners' ability to commercialize our COVID-19 vaccine will be materially harmed.

Clinical trial results are inherently uncertain, and a significant portion of our potential success and business prospects currently depend on our partnered COVID-19 vaccine program. If we cannot demonstrate sufficient safety and efficacy and complete these clinical trials on a timely basis, we likely will have missed a substantial market opportunity for COVID-19 vaccines, after dedicating significant efforts and financial resources to this program, and our commercial relationships may be materially adversely affected.

Regulatory authorities are still settling in on their advice and recommendations for approving COVID-19 vaccine candidates. For example, at a meeting of the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) of the FDA in January 2023, the committee members voted to harmonize the vaccine strain composition of primary series and booster doses used in the U.S. to a single composition, the result of which was to favor bivalent vaccines (e.g., original plus Omicron BA.4/BA.5). However, five months later, FDA advised manufacturers seeking to update their COVID-19 vaccines with a monovalent XBB.1.5 composition for the 2023-2024 season based on the VRBPAC meeting on 15 June 2023. Such a changing regulatory recommendation can make our development activities significantly more challenging and expensive, and have an adverse impact on a pathway to approval for our future COVID-19 vaccine candidates. Further, additional data demonstrating broad immunogenicity against emerging variant strains may be requested by FDA and other regulatory agencies to support registration, and there can be no assurance that our vaccine candidates will achieve such immunogenicity.

The United States and some foreign jurisdictions are considering or have enacted a number of legislative and regulatory proposals to change the healthcare system in ways that could affect our ability to sell our products profitably. Among policymakers and payors in the United States and elsewhere, there is significant interest in promoting changes in healthcare systems with the stated goals of containing healthcare costs, improving quality or expanding access. In the United States, the pharmaceutical industry has been a particular focus of these efforts and has been significantly affected by major legislative initiatives. For example, in March 2010, the ACA was enacted, which made a number of substantial changes in the way healthcare is financed by both governmental and private insurers. The ACA included a number of provisions that may reduce the profitability of drug products, including revising the rebate methodology for covered outpatient drugs under the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program, extending Medicaid rebates to individuals enrolled in Medicaid managed care plans, and requiring drug manufacturers to pay an annual fee based on their market share of prior year total sales of branded programs to certain federal health care programs.

If we obtain FDA approval for any of our product candidates and begin commercializing those products in the United States, our operations may be directly, or indirectly through our customers, further subject to various federal and state fraud and abuse laws, including, without limitation, the federal Anti-Kickback Statute and the federal False Claims Act (the "FCA"). These laws may impact, among other things, our proposed sales, marketing and education programs. In addition, we may be subject to patient privacy regulation by the federal government and by the U.S. states and foreign jurisdictions in which we conduct our business. The healthcare laws and regulations that may affect our ability to operate include: - The federal Anti-Kickback Statute, which prohibits, among other things, persons and entities from knowingly and willfully soliciting, receiving, offering or paying remuneration, directly or indirectly, to induce, or in return for, either the referral of an individual, or the purchase or recommendation of an item or service for which payment may be made under a federal healthcare program, such as the Medicare and Medicaid programs. Remuneration has been interpreted broadly to include anything of value. Although there are a number of statutory exemptions and regulatory safe harbors protecting certain common activities from prosecution, the exemptions and safe harbors are drawn narrowly, and those activities may be subject to scrutiny or penalty if they do not qualify for an exemption or safe harbor. A conviction for violation of the Anti-Kickback Statute requires mandatory exclusion from participation in federal healthcare programs. This statute has been applied to arrangements between pharmaceutical manufacturers and those in a position to purchase products or refer others, including prescribers, patients, purchasers and formulary managers. In addition, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, as amended by the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010 (the "ACA"), amended the Social Security Act to provide that the United States government may assert that a claim including items or services resulting from a violation of the federal Anti-Kickback Statute constitutes a false or fraudulent claim for purposes of the civil FCA penalties for which are described below.   - Federal civil and criminal false claims laws and civil monetary penalty laws, including the FCA, which imposes criminal or civil penalties, including through civil whistleblower or qui tam actions, against individuals or entities for, among other things, knowingly presenting, or causing to be presented, claims for payment to the federal government, including Medicare or Medicaid, that are false or fraudulent or making a false statement to avoid, decrease or conceal an obligation to pay money to the federal government. FCA liability is potentially significant in the healthcare industry because the statute provides for treble damages and mandatory penalties.   - The civil monetary penalties statute, which imposes penalties against any person or entity who, among other things, is determined to have presented or caused to be presented a claim to a federal healthcare program that the person knows or should know is for an item or service that was not provided as claimed or is false or fraudulent.   - The federal Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 ("HIPAA"), which imposes civil and criminal penalties for, among other things, knowingly and willfully executing, or attempting to execute, a scheme to defraud any healthcare benefit program or obtain, by means of false or fraudulent pretenses, representations or promises, any money or property owned by, or under the custody or control of, any healthcare benefit program, regardless of the payor (e.g., public or private), knowingly and willfully embezzling or stealing from a health care benefit program, willfully obstructing a criminal investigation of a healthcare offense and knowingly and willfully falsifying, concealing or covering up a material fact or making any materially false statements in connection with the delivery of, or payment for, healthcare benefits, items or services relating to healthcare. - HIPAA, as amended by the Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act of 2009 ("HITECH"), and its implementing regulations, which imposes certain requirements on certain types of individuals and entities, such as healthcare providers, health plans and healthcare clearing houses, known as "covered entities," as well as their "business associates," independent contractors or agents of covered entities that receive or obtain individually identifiable health information in connection with providing a service on behalf of a covered entity, relating to the privacy, security and transmission of individually identifiable health information.   - The federal Physician Payments Sunshine Act, which requires certain manufacturers of drugs, devices, biologics and medical supplies for which payment is available under Medicare, Medicaid or the Children's Health Insurance Program, with specific exceptions, to report annually to CMS, information related to payments or other transfers of value made to physicians, and further requires applicable manufacturers and applicable group purchasing organizations to report annually to CMS ownership and investment interests held by physicians and their immediate family members. The support for Patients and Communities Act expanded the scope of reporting, such that beginning January 1, 2021 companies must also report payments and transfers of value provided to other types of healthcare professionals. Failure to submit timely, accurately and completely the required information for all covered payments, transfers of value and ownership or investment interests may result in civil monetary penalties.   - Many state and foreign law equivalents of each of the above federal laws, such as: anti-kickback and false claims laws which may apply to items or services reimbursed by any third party payor, including commercial insurers; state laws that require pharmaceutical companies to comply with the pharmaceutical industry's voluntary compliance guidelines and the relevant compliance guidance promulgated by the federal government; state laws that require drug manufacturers to report information related to payments and other transfers of value to physicians and other healthcare providers or marketing expenditures; state and local laws that require the registration of pharmaceutical sales representatives; and state and foreign laws governing the privacy and security of health information in certain circumstances, many of which differ from each other in significant ways and may not have the same effect, thus complicating compliance efforts. In addition, the EU has established its own data security and privacy legal framework, including but not limited to Directive 95/46/EC (the "Data Protection Directive"). The European General Data Protection Regulation ("GDPR") took effect on May 25, 2018, which contains new provisions specifically directed at the processing of health information, higher sanctions and extra-territoriality measures intended to bring non-E companies under the regulation. We anticipate that over time we may expand our business operations to include additional operations in the EU, including potentially conducting preclinical and clinical trials. With such expansion, we would be subject to increased governmental regulation in the EU countries in which we might operate, including regulation due to the GDPR. If our operations are found to be in violation of any of the laws described above or any other governmental regulations or laws that apply to us, we may be subject to substantial penalties, including, without limitation, civil, criminal and administrative penalties, damages, fines, possible exclusion from Medicare, Medicaid and other government healthcare programs, additional reporting requirements and/or oversight, particularly if we become subject to a corporate integrity agreement or similar agreement to resolve allegations of non-compliance, disgorgement, imprisonment, contractual damages, reputational harm, diminished profits and future earnings, and curtailment or restructuring of our operations, any of which could adversely affect our ability to operate our business and our results of operations.

Several U.S. Government agencies, such as the Defense Contract Audit Agency (the "DCAA"), routinely audit and investigate government contractors. These agencies review, among other things, a contractor's performance under its contracts, incurred costs, cost structure and compliance with applicable laws, regulations and standards. The DCAA also reviews the adequacy of, and a contractor's compliance with, its internal control systems and policies, including the contractor's purchasing, property, estimating, compensation and management information systems. Any costs found to be improperly allocated to a specific contract will not be reimbursed, while such costs already reimbursed must be refunded. If an audit uncovers improper or illegal activities, we may be subject to civil and criminal penalties and administrative sanctions, including: - termination of contracts;- forfeiture of profits;- suspension of payments;- fines; and - suspension or prohibition from conducting business with the U.S. Government. In addition, we could suffer serious reputational harm if allegations of impropriety were made against us.

We are highly dependent on principal members of our executive team, and any reduction or loss of their services may adversely impact the achievement of our objectives. While we have entered into employment agreements with each of our executive officers, any of them could leave our employment at any time, as all of our employees are "at will" employees. Recruiting and retaining other qualified employees for our business, including scientific and technical personnel, will also be critical to our success. We have experienced a high number of resignations over the past few years, which could continue. There was already a shortage of skilled executives as well as scientific and technical personnel in our industry prior to COVID-19, which was exacerbated by the pandemic and is likely to continue. As a result, competition for skilled personnel is intense and the turnover rate can be high, as we have recently seen. We may not be able to attract and retain personnel on acceptable terms given the competition among numerous pharmaceutical companies for individuals with similar skill sets. In addition, failure to succeed in preclinical studies and clinical trials may make it more challenging to recruit and retain qualified personnel. The inability to recruit any executive or key employee or the loss of the services of any executive or key employee might impede the progress of our research, development and commercialization objectives.

We rely on outside contractors to produce the supply of our preclinical and clinical product candidates, and we intend to rely on outside contractors to produce future clinical supplies of product candidates and commercial supplies of any approved product candidates. Reliance on outside suppliers and manufacturers entails risks, some of which we would not be subject to if we manufactured the product candidates ourselves, including: - the inability to meet any product specifications and quality requirements consistently;   - a delay or inability to procure or expand sufficient manufacturing capacity;   - manufacturing and product quality issues related to scale-up of manufacturing;   - costs and validation of new equipment and facilities required for scale-up;   - a failure to comply with cGMP and similar foreign standards;   - the inability to negotiate manufacturing or supply agreements with outside parties on commercially reasonable terms;   - termination or nonrenewal of manufacturing agreements with outside parties in a manner or at a time that is costly or damaging to us;   - the reliance on a limited number of sources, and in some cases, single sources for raw materials, such that if we are unable to secure a sufficient supply of these product components, we will be unable to manufacture and sell future product candidates in a timely fashion, in sufficient quantities or under acceptable terms;   - the lack of qualified backup suppliers for any raw materials that are currently purchased from a single source supplier;   - operations of our contract manufacturers or suppliers could be disrupted by conditions unrelated to our business or operations, including the bankruptcy of the manufacturer or supplier;   - carrier disruptions or increased costs that are beyond our control; and   - the failure to deliver products under specified storage conditions and in a timely manner. Any of these events could lead to clinical study delays or failure to obtain regulatory approval, or impact our ability to successfully commercialize future products, if approved. Some of these events could be the basis for detrimental FDA action, including injunction, product recall or seizure, or total or partial suspension of production.

We have established manufacturing relationships with a limited number of suppliers to supply raw materials used to create our product candidates and with a limited number of contract manufacturers to manufacture drug substance and drug product. The availability of continued supply and manufacturing capacity from our current vendors, and the availability of additional suppliers and manufacturers, is limited. We have and may continue to experience some supplier shortages and delivery delays. If our vendors fail to supply materials or to manufacture substances or products in the required quantities on a timely basis and at commercially reasonable prices, and we are unable to secure one or more replacement vendors in a timely manner at a substantially equivalent cost, our clinical trials may be delayed, and our commercialization prospects could be materially diminished. Prior to marketing approval for any of our product candidates, a manufacturer and its processes are required to be qualified by the FDA. If supply from the approved manufacturer is interrupted, there could be a significant disruption in our sales of any product. An alternative vendor would need to be qualified through an NDA supplement which could result in further delay. The FDA or other regulatory agencies outside of the United States may also require additional studies if a new supplier is relied upon for commercial production. Switching vendors may involve substantial costs and is likely to result in a delay in our desired clinical and commercial timelines. In addition, if our alliance partners elect to control manufacturing for certain programs, we may lose control over the manufacturing activities for the product candidate, which would reduce our level of manufacturing process development and would make the success of such programs dependent on our partners' ability to manufacture timely and properly.

We and our strategic alliance partners rely on CROs and clinical trial sites to ensure the proper and timely conduct of our clinical trials. We and our strategic alliance partners have limited control or influence over their actual performance, but remain responsible for ensuring that clinical trials are conducted in accordance with the applicable protocol, legal, regulatory and scientific standards. If we or our CROs fail to comply with applicable good clinical practices, the clinical data generated in our clinical trials may be deemed unreliable and the FDA or applicable non-U.S. regulatory agency may require us to perform additional clinical trials before approving any marketing applications. In addition, our future clinical trials will require a sufficiently large number of test subjects to adequately evaluate the safety and effectiveness of a potential drug product. Accordingly, if our CROs fail to comply with these regulations or fail to recruit a sufficient number of patients, we may be required to repeat such clinical trials, which would delay the regulatory approval process and increase our costs. Our CROs are not our employees, and we are not able to control whether or not they devote sufficient time and resources to our clinical and nonclinical programs. These CROs may also have relationships with other commercial entities, including our competitors, for whom they may also be conducting clinical trials or other drug development activities, which could possibly harm our competitive position. If our future CROs do not successfully carry out their contractual duties or obligations, fail to meet expected deadlines, or if the quality or accuracy of the clinical data they obtain is compromised due to the failure to adhere to our clinical protocols or regulatory requirements, or for any other reasons, our clinical trials may be extended, delayed or terminated, and we may not be able to obtain regulatory approval for, or successfully commercialize our product candidates. As a result, the commercial prospects for such products and any product candidates that we develop would be harmed, our costs could increase, and our ability to generate revenues could be delayed. We rely on other outside parties to store and distribute drug products for clinical trials. Any performance failure or delays by our distributors could delay clinical development, marketing approval or commercialization of our product candidates, resulting in additional losses and depriving us of potential product revenue.

Although we have marketing approval for ARCT-154 in Japan, we do not have approval for ARCT-154 in any other countries and may never achieve marketing approval in any other countries. Further, ARCT-154 is not commercially viable in Japan or any other country because it does not contain an updated variant strain, and we do not have approval of a COVID-19 vaccine with an updated variant strain and may never achieve a marketing approval containing an updated variant strain. Our continued development efforts for our COVID-19 vaccine could face increased research and development costs, including for clinical trials, non-clinical studies and CMC, when updating COVID-19 vaccines containing new variants of concern based on WHO and FDA recommendations. Regulatory authorities, including the FDA, may deem the variant strain data we expect to collect from studies outside of the United States to be insufficient. If key regulatory authorities, such as the FDA, determine that our data is inadequate or unacceptable, or make the path to regulatory approval more difficult, we may not be able to achieve regulatory approval and any additional study may prove too costly for us to conduct without a strategic partner. If we do not receive approvals to market our partnered COVID-19 vaccine, our efforts and the efforts of our partner, CSL Seqirus, on future generations of COVID-19 vaccines based on our platform could be substantially harmed.