Amplify Energy (AMPY) Risk Analysis

On February 2, 2022, the Unified Command announced that response and monitoring efforts had officially concluded for the Incident, and the Unified Command would stand down as of such date. We currently estimate that the total costs we have incurred or will incur with respect to the Incident related to (i) actual and projected response and remediation expenses incurred under the direction of the Unified Command and (ii) estimates for certain legal fees to be approximately $190.0 million to $210.0 million. These estimates consider currently available facts and presently enacted laws and regulations. We have made assumptions regarding (i) the probable and estimable amounts expected to be settled with certain vendors for response and remediation expenses and (ii) the resolution of certain third-party claims, excluding claims with respect to losses, which are not probable and reasonably estimable, and (iii) future claims and lawsuits. Our estimates do not include (i) the nature, extent and cost of future legal services that will be required in connection with all lawsuits, claims and other matters requiring legal or expert advice associated with the Incident, (ii) any lost revenue associated with the suspension of operations at Beta, (iii) any liabilities or costs that are not reasonably estimable at this time or that relate to contingencies where we currently regard the likelihood of loss as being only reasonably possible or remote and (iv) the costs associated with the permanent repair of the pipeline and the restart of operations at Beta. We believe we have accrued adequate amounts for all probable and reasonably estimable costs; however, this estimate is subject to uncertainties associated with the assumptions that we have made. Accordingly, our assumptions and estimates may change in future periods based on future events and total costs may materially increase; therefore, we can provide no assurance that we will not have to accrue significant additional costs in future periods with respect to the Incident.

The present value of future net cash flows from our proved reserves shown in this report, or standardized measure, may not be the current market value of our estimated natural gas and oil reserves. In accordance with rules established by the SEC and the FASB, we base the estimated discounted future net cash flows from our proved reserves on the trailing 12-month average oil and gas index prices, calculated as the unweighted arithmetic average for the first-day-of-the-month price for each month and costs in effect on the date of the estimate, holding the prices and costs constant throughout the life of the properties. Actual future prices and costs may differ materially from those used in the net present value estimate, and future net present value estimates using then current prices and costs may be significantly less than the current estimate. In addition, the 10% discount factor we use when calculating discounted future net cash flows for reporting requirements, which is required by the SEC and FASB, is not necessarily the most appropriate discount factor based on interest rates in effect from time to time and risks associated with us or the natural gas and oil industry in general.

We intend to maintain a portfolio of commodity derivative contracts covering at least 50%- 75% of our estimated production from proved developed producing reserves over a one-to-three-year period at any given point in time. These commodity derivative contracts include natural gas, oil and NGL financial swaps, put options, costless collars, and three-way collars. The prices and quantities at which we enter into commodity derivative contracts covering our production in the future will be dependent upon oil and natural gas prices and price expectations, at the time we enter into these transactions, which may be substantially higher or lower than current or future oil and natural gas prices. Accordingly, our price hedging strategy may not protect us from significant declines in oil, natural gas and NGL prices received for our future production. Many of the derivative contracts to which we will be a party will require us to make cash payments to the extent the applicable index exceeds a predetermined price, thereby limiting our ability to realize the benefit of increases in oil, natural gas and NGL prices. If our actual production and sales for any period are less than our hedged production and sales for that period (including reductions in production due to operational delays) or if we are unable to perform our drilling activities as planned, we might be forced to satisfy all or a portion of our hedging obligations without the benefit of the cash flow from our sale of the underlying physical commodity, which may materially impact our liquidity.

Borrowings under our Revolving Credit Facility bear interest at variable rates and expose us to interest rate risk. If interest rates increase, our debt service obligations on the variable rate indebtedness would increase even if the amount borrowed remained the same, and our net income and cash available for servicing our indebtedness would decrease.

Our Revolving Credit Facility allows us to borrow in an amount up to the borrowing base, which is primarily based on the estimated value of our oil and natural gas properties and our commodity derivative contracts as determined semi-annually by our lenders in their sole discretion. The borrowing base is subject to redetermination on at least a semi-annual basis primarily based on an engineering report with respect to our estimated natural gas, oil and NGL reserves, which takes into account the prevailing natural gas, oil and NGL prices at such time, as adjusted for the impact of our commodity derivative contracts. Accordingly, declining commodity prices may have an impact on the amount we can borrow, which could affect our cash flows and ability to execute our business plans. Any reduction in the borrowing base would materially and adversely affect our business and financing activities, limit our flexibility and management's discretion in operating our business, and increase the risk that we may default on our debt obligations. In addition, as hedges roll off, the borrowing base is subject to further reduction. Our Revolving Credit Facility requires us to repay any deficiency over a certain period or pledge additional oil and gas properties to eliminate such deficiency within 30 days of notice. If our outstanding borrowings exceed the borrowing base and we are unable to repay the deficiency or pledge additional oil and gas properties to eliminate such deficiency, our failure to repay any of the installments due related to the borrowing base deficiency would constitute an event of default under the Revolving Credit Facility and as such, the lenders could declare all outstanding principal and interest to be due and payable, could freeze our accounts, or foreclose against the assets securing the obligations owed under our Revolving Credit Facility.

Restrictive covenants in our Revolving Credit Facility impose significant operating and financial restrictions on us and our subsidiaries. These restrictions limit our ability to, among other things: - incur additional liens;- incur additional indebtedness;- merge, consolidate or sell our assets;- pay dividends or make other distributions or repurchase or redeem our stock;- make certain investments; and - enter into transactions with our affiliates. Our Revolving Credit Facility also requires us to comply with certain financial maintenance covenants as discussed above. A breach of any of these covenants could result in a default under our Revolving Credit Facility. If a default occurs and remains uncured or unwaived, the administrative agent or majority lenders under our Revolving Credit Facility may elect to declare all borrowings outstanding thereunder, if any, together with accrued interest and other fees, to be immediately due and payable. The administrative agent or majority lenders under our Revolving Credit Facility would also have the right in these circumstances to terminate any commitments they have to provide further borrowings. If we are unable to repay our indebtedness when due or declared due, the administrative agent will also have the right to proceed against the collateral pledged to it to secure the indebtedness under our Revolving Credit Facility. If such indebtedness were to be accelerated, our assets may not be sufficient to repay in full our secured indebtedness. We may also be prevented from taking advantage of business opportunities that arise because of the limitations imposed on us by the restrictive covenants in our Revolving Credit Facility. The terms and conditions of our Revolving Credit Facility affect us in several ways, including: - requiring us to dedicate a substantial portion of our cash flow from operations to service our existing debt, thereby reducing the cash available to finance our operations and other business activities and could limit our flexibility in planning for or reacting to changes in our business and the industry in which we operate;- increasing our vulnerability to economic downturns and adverse developments in our business;- limiting our ability to access the capital markets to raise capital on favorable terms or to obtain additional financing for working capital, capital expenditures or acquisitions or to refinance existing indebtedness;- placing restrictions on our ability to obtain additional financing, make investments, lease equipment, sell assets and engage in business combinations;- placing us at a competitive disadvantage relative to competitors with lower levels of indebtedness in relation to their overall size or less restrictive terms governing their indebtedness; and - limiting management's discretion in operating our business.

Under our Revolving Credit Facility, we are required to (i) maintain, as of the date of determination, a maximum total debt to EBITDAX ratio of 3.00 to 1.00, (ii) maintain a current ratio of not less than 1.00 to 1.00, and (iii) hedge at least 50% - 75% of our estimated production from total proved developed producing reserves. If we were to violate any of the covenants under our Revolving Credit Facility and were unable to obtain a waiver or amendment, it would be considered a default after the expiration of any applicable grace period. If we were in default under our Revolving Credit Facility, then the lenders may exercise certain remedies including, among others, declaring all borrowings outstanding thereunder, if any, immediately due and payable. This could adversely affect our operations and our ability to satisfy our obligations as they come due, because we might not have, or be able to obtain, sufficient funds to make these accelerated payments. In addition, our obligations under our Revolving Credit Facility are secured by mortgages on not less than 90% of the PV-9 value of our oil and gas properties (and at least 90% of the PV-9 value of the proved, developed and producing oil and gas properties), and if we are unable to repay our indebtedness under our Revolving Credit Facility, the lenders could seek to foreclose on our assets.

The Incident may result in more stringent permitting obligations and regulation of our properties and other oil and gas activities, including at Beta and elsewhere, particularly relating to environmental, health and safety protection controls, oversight of oil and gas operations and required financial assurance. Regulatory or legislative action may impact the industry as a whole and could be directed specifically towards operators similarly situated to us, which could negatively impact our business. Additionally, new regulations and legislation, as well as evolving practices, may increase the cost of compliance, require changes to our operations and strategic plans and impact our ability to capitalize on our assets.

The operations of the third parties on whom we rely for gathering and transportation services are subject to complex and stringent laws and regulations that require obtaining and maintaining numerous permits, approvals and certifications from various federal, state and local government authorities. These third parties may incur substantial costs in order to comply with existing laws and regulations. If existing laws and regulations governing such third-party services are revised or reinterpreted, or if new laws and regulations become applicable to their operations, these changes may affect the costs that we pay for such services. Similarly, a failure to comply with such laws and regulations by the third parties on whom we rely for gathering and transportation services could impact the availability of those services. Any potential impact to the availability of gathering and transportation services could impact our ability to market and sell our production, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. See "Item 1. Business - Environmental, Occupational Health and Safety Matters and Regulations" and "- Other Regulation of the Oil and Natural Gas Industry" for a description of the laws and regulations that affect the third parties on whom we rely for gathering and transportation services.

Hydraulic fracturing is an essential and common practice in the oil and gas industry used to stimulate production of natural gas and/or oil from dense subsurface rock formations. Hydraulic fracturing involves using water, sand and certain chemicals to fracture the hydrocarbon-bearing rock formation to allow flow of hydrocarbons into the wellbore. We routinely apply hydraulic fracturing techniques in our drilling and completion programs. While hydraulic fracturing has historically been regulated by state oil and natural gas commissions, the practice has become increasingly controversial in certain parts of the country, resulting in increased scrutiny and regulation. See "Item 1. Business - Environmental, Health and Safety Matters and Regulations - Hydraulic Fracturing" for a description of the federal and state legislative and regulatory initiatives relating to hydraulic fracturing that affect us. If new laws or regulations that significantly restrict hydraulic fracturing are adopted at the state and local level, such laws could make it more difficult or costly for us to perform fracturing to stimulate production from dense subsurface rock formations and, in the event of prohibitions, may preclude our ability to drill wells. In addition, if hydraulic fracturing becomes further regulated at the federal level as a result of federal legislation or regulatory initiatives by the EPA or other federal agencies, our fracturing activities could become subject to additional permitting requirements and result in permitting delays as well as potential increases in costs. Restrictions on hydraulic fracturing could also reduce the amount of oil and natural gas that we are ultimately able to produce from our reserves.

The EPA has adopted and implemented regulations to restrict emissions of GHGs under existing provisions of the CAA. In addition, the EPA has also adopted rules requiring the monitoring and reporting of GHG emissions from specified sources on an annual basis in the United States, including, among others, certain oil and natural gas production facilities, which includes certain of our operations. The adoption and implementation of any regulations imposing reporting obligations on, or limiting emissions of GHGs from, our equipment and operations could require us to incur costs to reduce emissions of GHGs associated with our operations or could adversely affect demand for the oil and natural gas we produce. Such climate change regulatory and legislative initiatives could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. The $1 trillion legislative infrastructure package passed by Congress in November 2021 includes a number of climate-focused spending initiatives targeted at climate resilience, enhanced response and preparation for extreme weather events, and clean energy and transportation investments. In August 2022, President Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Among other things, the Inflation Reduction Act includes a methane emissions reduction program that amends the CAA to include a Methane Emissions and Waste Reduction Incentive Program for petroleum and natural gas systems. This program requires the EPA to impose a "waste emissions charge" on certain oil and gas sources that are already required to report under EPA's Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. In order to implement the program, the Inflation Reduction Act required revisions to GHG reporting regulations for petroleum and natural gas systems (Subpart W) by 2024. In July 2023, the EPA proposed to expand the scope of the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program for petroleum and natural gas facilities, as required by the Inflation Reduction Act. Among other things, the proposed rule expands the emissions events that are subject to reporting requirements to include "other large release events" and applies reporting requirements to certain new sources and sectors. The rule is currently scheduled to be finalized in the spring of 2024 and would take effect on January 1, 2025, in advance of the deadline for GHG reporting for 2024 (March 2025). The fee imposed under the Methane Emissions and Waste Reduction Incentive Program for 2024 would be $900 per ton emitted over annual methane emissions thresholds, and would increase to $1,200 in 2025, and $1,500 in 2026. Additionally, many of the states have taken legal measures to reduce emissions of GHGs, including through the planned development of GHG emission inventories and/or regional GHGs cap and trade programs. At the international level, the United States joined the international community at the 21st Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris, France, which resulted in an agreement intended to nationally determine their contributions and set GHG emission reduction goals every five years beginning in 2020. In February 2021, the current administration announced reentry of the U.S. into the Paris Agreement along with a new "nationally determined contribution" for the U.S. GHG emissions that would achieve emissions reductions of at least 50% relative to 2005 levels by 2030. In addition, in September 2021, President Biden publicly announced the Global Methane Pledge, a pact that aims to reduce global methane emissions at least 30% below 2020 levels by 2030, including "all feasible reductions" in the energy sector. Since its formal launch at COP26, over 150 countries have joined the pledge. At COP27, President Biden announced the EPA's proposed standards to reduce methane emissions from existing oil and gas sources, and agreed, in conjunction with the European Union and a number of other partner countries, to develop standards for monitoring and reporting methane emissions to help create a market for low methane-intensity natural gas. Most recently, at COP28, nearly 200 countries, including the United States, agreed to transition away from fossil fuels while accelerating action in this decade to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. In addition, various states and local governments have vowed to continue to enact regulations to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Pursuant to its obligations as a signatory to the Paris Agreement, the United States has set a target to reduce its GHG emissions by 50-52% by the year 2030 as compared with 2005 levels and has agreed to provide periodic updates on its progress. Additionally, at COP28, member countries entered into an agreement that calls for actions towards achieving, at a global scale, a tripling of renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030. The goals of the agreement, among other things, is to accelerate efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power, phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, and take other measures that drive the transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. Additionally, the SEC issued a proposed rule in March 2022 that would mandate extensive disclosure of climate-related data, risks, and opportunities, including financial impacts, physical and transition risks, related governance and strategy, and GHG emissions, for certain public companies. We cannot predict the costs of implementation or any potential adverse impacts resulting from the rulemaking. To the extent this rulemaking is finalized as proposed, we could incur increased costs relating to the assessment and disclosure of climate-related risks. We may also face increased litigation risks related to disclosures made pursuant to the rule if finalized as proposed. In addition, enhanced climate disclosure requirements could accelerate the trend of certain stakeholders and lenders restricting or seeking more stringent conditions with respect to their investments in certain carbon-intensive sectors. See "Item 1. Business- Environmental, Occupational Health and Safety Matters and Regulations" for a further discussion of the laws and regulations related to GHGs and of climate change. Although it is not possible at this time to predict how legislation or new regulations that may be adopted to address GHG emissions (including those related to carbon pricing schemes) would impact our business, any such future laws and regulations that require reporting of GHGs or otherwise limit emissions of GHGs from our equipment and operations could require us to incur costs to monitor and report on GHG emissions or reduce emissions of GHGs associated with our operations, and such requirements also could adversely affect demand for the oil and natural gas that we produce and restrict our ability to execute on our business strategy, reducing our access to financial markets, or create greater potential for governmental investigations or litigation. Finally, most scientists have concluded that increasing concentrations of GHGs in the Earth's atmosphere may produce climate changes that have significant physical effects, such as increased frequency and severity of storms, droughts and floods and other climatic events. If any such effects were to occur, they could have an adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. For example, such effects could adversely affect or delay demand for the oil or natural gas produced or cause us to incur significant costs in preparing for or responding to the effects of climatic events themselves. Potential adverse effects could include disruption of our production activities, increases in our costs of operation or reductions in the efficiency of our operations, impacts on our personnel, supply chain, or distribution chain, as well as potentially increased costs for insurance coverages in the aftermath of such effects. Our ability to mitigate the adverse physical impacts of climate change depends in part upon our disaster preparedness and response and business continuity planning. Further, energy needs could increase or decrease as a result of extreme weather conditions depending on the duration and magnitude of any such climate changes. Increased energy use due to weather changes may require us to invest in additional equipment to serve increased demand. A decrease in energy use due to weather changes may affect our financial condition through decreased revenues. The effect of fluctuations on supply and demand may become more pronounced within specific geographic oil and natural gas producing areas, which may cause these conditions to occur with greater frequency or magnify the effects of these conditions.

The reputational consequences of the Incident, ongoing contingencies related to the Incident and the impact of the Incident on our liquidity and financial performance could increase our financing costs and limit our access to financing on acceptable terms. Our ability to engage in trading activities may also be impacted due to counterparty concerns about our financial and business risk profile following the Incident. Such counterparties may require that we provide collateral or other forms of financial security for their obligations. Certain counterparties for our non-trading businesses may also require that we provide collateral for certain contractual obligations.

The Incident has damaged our reputation, which may have a long-term impact on us. Adverse public, political and industry sentiment towards us, and oil and gas activities generally, could damage or impair our existing commercial relationships with counterparties, partners and governmental agencies and could impair our access to debt or capital, new investment opportunities, operatorships or other essential commercial arrangements with potential partners and governmental agencies. In addition, responding to the Incident may place a significant burden on our cash flow, which could also impede our ability to invest in new opportunities and deliver long-term growth. In addition, our response to the Incident and associated consequences have required significant management focus. Key management and operating personnel are, and will need to continue, devoting substantial attention to addressing the associated consequences for us, leaving them less time to devote to executing our strategic plans. In addition, we rely on recruiting and retaining high-quality employees to execute our strategic plans and to operate our business. The Incident response and associated consequences have placed significant demands on our employees, and the reputational damage suffered by us as a result of the Incident and any consequent adverse impact on our business could affect employee recruitment, productivity, retention and the results of our operations.