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Weyerhaeuser (WY)
NYSE:WY

Weyerhaeuser (WY) AI Stock Analysis

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WY

Weyerhaeuser

(NYSE:WY)

Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$28.00
â–²(6.42%Upside)
Weyerhaeuser's strong balance sheet and operational efficiency are overshadowed by declining revenues and profit margins. Positive corporate developments and strategic plans offer upside potential, but the high valuation and moderate technical indicators suggest cautious optimism. The most notable strengths include the company's financial stability and strategic positioning in carbon capture and real estate.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Weyerhaeuser's adjusted EPS of $0.11 in 4Q exceeded expectations from BofA and the Street, which were at $0.07.
Financial Performance
Weyerhaeuser's 4Q adjusted EBITDA was $294 million, which was higher than the estimate of $258 million.
Market Positioning
Weyerhaeuser is considered a defensive play on the current market conditions.
Negative Factors
Interest Rates
Continued high interest rates are resulting in a wide gap between the cost to own vs. cost to rent.
Operational Challenges
Operational disruptions at the Montana facility due to a fire have increased costs for engineered wood products.
Sales Realizations
The main driver of the lower estimates is the weaker lumber/OSB sales realizations that the company reported.

Weyerhaeuser (WY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Weyerhaeuser Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionWeyerhaeuser Company, one of the world's largest private owners of timberlands, began operations in 1900. We own or control approximately 11 million acres of timberlands in the U.S. and manage additional timberlands under long-term licenses in Canada. We manage these timberlands on a sustainable basis in compliance with internationally recognized forestry standards. We are also one of the largest manufacturers of wood products in North America. Our company is a real estate investment trust. In 2020, we generated $7.5 billion in net sales and employed approximately 9,400 people who serve customers worldwide. We are listed on the Dow Jones Sustainability North America Index. Our common stock trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol WY.
How the Company Makes MoneyWeyerhaeuser generates revenue primarily through its Timberlands and Wood Products segments. The Timberlands segment involves the management and harvesting of timber, which is sold as logs to third parties. The company also leases land for recreational purposes and receives royalties from natural resources such as minerals and oil and gas extracted from its properties. The Wood Products segment manufactures and sells a range of products, including lumber, oriented strand board (OSB), and engineered wood products like laminated veneer lumber (LVL), which are sold to retailers, wholesalers, and industrial entities. Significant partnerships in the forestry and construction industries, as well as market demand for sustainable building materials, are key factors contributing to Weyerhaeuser's earnings.

Weyerhaeuser Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 4.03%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call revealed positive developments in EBITDA growth and strategic progress in carbon capture and real estate. However, challenges such as international trade restrictions, operational disruptions, and pricing pressures in certain product segments were also disclosed.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $328 million, a 12% increase over the fourth quarter of 2024.
Timberlands Performance
Timberlands contributed $102 million to first quarter earnings with an adjusted EBITDA of $167 million, showing a $41 million increase compared to the fourth quarter.
Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources Segment Growth
The segment contributed $56 million to earnings and $82 million to adjusted EBITDA, which is $6 million higher than the fourth quarter.
Carbon Capture and Sequestration Progress
Occidental Petroleum signed a 25-year agreement related to the CCS project, marking a significant step for Weyerhaeuser in the CCS space.
Quarterly Base Dividend Increase
The quarterly base dividend was increased by 5% to $0.21 per share, marking the fourth consecutive year of such an increase.
Negative Updates
Chinese Log Import Ban
China announced a ban on U.S. log imports, leading Weyerhaeuser to pause shipments, though the impact on first quarter results was minimal.
Southern Timberlands EBITDA Decrease
Adjusted EBITDA for Southern timberlands decreased by $3 million due to stable log markets and muted sawlog demand.
Engineered Wood Products Impacted by Fire
A fire at the MDF facility in Montana led to a $11 million impact on EWP results for the first quarter.
OSB Pricing Pressure
OSB adjusted EBITDA decreased by $4 million due to downward pricing trends and elevated channel inventories.
Distribution Segment Decline
Adjusted EBITDA for the distribution segment decreased by $4 million due to lower sales volumes.
Company Guidance
During the Weyerhaeuser first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported GAAP earnings of $83 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, on net sales of $1.8 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $328 million, reflecting a 12% increase from the fourth quarter of 2022. Timberlands contributed $102 million to first-quarter earnings, with adjusted EBITDA rising to $167 million, driven by stronger domestic sales in the West. Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources added $56 million to earnings, while Wood Products contributed $106 million. The company also highlighted progress in its Natural Climate Solutions business, specifically noting a milestone in its Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) project with Occidental Petroleum. The call provided guidance indicating a slight decrease in second-quarter Timberlands adjusted EBITDA due to seasonal cost increases and a moderate increase in Real Estate earnings due to transaction timing. Weyerhaeuser remains optimistic about housing market fundamentals, despite macroeconomic uncertainties, and continues to focus on operational excellence and strategic capital allocation.

Weyerhaeuser Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Weyerhaeuser demonstrates stability in its balance sheet with low leverage and strong equity financing. However, declining revenues and profit margins have impacted overall financial performance. The company's operational efficiency remains a strength, supported by solid cash flow generation. Continued focus on revenue growth and margin improvement is essential for enhancing financial health.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Weyerhaeuser's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a gross profit margin of 25.1% and a net profit margin of 6.4%. Both margins have decreased compared to previous years, reflecting a decline in profitability. Revenue has also decreased year-on-year, showing a negative growth trend. However, the company maintains a solid EBITDA margin of 21.3%, indicating operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet is robust, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.016, suggesting low financial leverage. The equity ratio is strong at 58.4%, indicating high asset financing through equity. The ROE is moderate at 3.8%, reflecting the impact of reduced net income on equity returns.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.61, indicating efficient cash generation. The free cash flow growth rate is 7.33%, showing a positive trajectory. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively modest at 1.00, suggesting limited free cash generation compared to net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue7.09B7.12B7.67B10.18B10.20B7.53B
Gross Profit1.42B1.31B1.68B3.62B4.10B2.08B
EBITDA1.32B1.23B1.72B3.53B4.02B1.72B
Net Income365.00M396.00M839.00M1.88B2.61B797.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets16.52B16.54B16.98B17.34B17.73B16.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments560.00M684.00M1.16B1.58B1.88B495.00M
Total Debt5.19B5.11B5.09B5.05B5.10B5.47B
Total Liabilities6.88B6.82B6.75B6.59B6.96B7.58B
Stockholders Equity9.64B9.72B10.24B10.75B10.77B8.73B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow269.00M341.00M753.00M2.07B2.57B823.00M
Operating Cash Flow954.00M1.01B1.43B2.83B3.16B1.53B
Investing Cash Flow-656.00M-636.00M-508.00M-759.00M-325.00M185.00M
Financing Cash Flow-641.00M-852.00M-1.34B-2.49B-1.33B-1.36B

Weyerhaeuser Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price26.31
Price Trends
50DMA
26.13
Positive
100DMA
27.09
Negative
200DMA
28.71
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.03
Positive
RSI
50.80
Neutral
STOCH
62.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.29, above the 50-day MA of 26.13, and below the 200-day MA of 28.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for WY.

Weyerhaeuser Risk Analysis

Weyerhaeuser disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Weyerhaeuser reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Weyerhaeuser Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
RYRYN
74
Outperform
$3.66B10.1018.78%12.40%12.61%111.99%
WYWY
65
Neutral
$19.08B52.493.71%3.19%-6.56%-54.29%
PCPCH
64
Neutral
$3.19B67.062.31%4.43%10.86%6.72%
54
Neutral
$1.19B3.630.13%7.02%-2.13%-128.06%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
WY
Weyerhaeuser
26.31
-1.93
-6.83%
PCH
PotlatchDeltic
40.59
2.32
6.06%
RYN
Rayonier
23.50
-2.70
-10.31%

Weyerhaeuser Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Weyerhaeuser Secures $1.75 Billion Credit Facility Agreement
Positive
Jul 3, 2025

On June 30, 2025, Weyerhaeuser Company entered into a $1.75 billion five-year senior unsecured Amended and Restated Revolving Credit Facility Agreement, which updates its previous $1.5 billion credit facility. This agreement, expiring on June 30, 2030, allows Weyerhaeuser to use the funds for general corporate purposes, including working capital, debt refinancing, acquisitions, stock repurchases, and capital expenditures. The agreement includes covenants requiring Weyerhaeuser to maintain a minimum total adjusted shareholders’ equity of $3.0 billion and a funded debt ratio of 65% or less, reflecting its commitment to financial stability and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (WY) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Weyerhaeuser stock, see the WY Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Weyerhaeuser Updates Q2 2025 Outlook and Targets
Positive
Jun 26, 2025

On June 26, 2025, Weyerhaeuser Company released presentation materials to update its second-quarter 2025 outlook for certain business segments. The company highlighted its progress towards multi-year targets, including significant investments in timberlands, operational improvements, and shareholder returns. Weyerhaeuser is on track to meet its 2025 targets for EBITDA growth in natural climate solutions and has maintained its ESG listings. The announcement underscores Weyerhaeuser’s strategic focus on growth, sustainability, and delivering value to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (WY) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Weyerhaeuser stock, see the WY Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Weyerhaeuser Unveils Strategic Growth Plans for 2025
Positive
May 29, 2025

On May 29, 2025, Weyerhaeuser Company announced the posting of new presentation materials for investors, highlighting its strategic focus on growth and shareholder value. The company outlined its targets for 2025, including disciplined investments in timberlands, growth in natural climate solutions, and operational excellence improvements. Weyerhaeuser also emphasized its commitment to sustainability and shareholder returns, with plans to increase production and dividends. The announcement reflects Weyerhaeuser’s strong industry positioning and its focus on maintaining a competitive edge through innovation and sustainable practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (WY) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Weyerhaeuser stock, see the WY Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Weyerhaeuser Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting on May 9
Neutral
May 13, 2025

On May 9, 2025, Weyerhaeuser held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where key decisions were made regarding the company’s governance and financial oversight. Shareholders elected directors to the board for one-year terms, approved executive compensation on an advisory basis, and ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to maintaining strong leadership and financial accountability.

The most recent analyst rating on (WY) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Weyerhaeuser stock, see the WY Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 12, 2025