EarningsRevised down FY24F earnings to RMB11mn and cut FY25F by 52% on a weaker-than-expected raw milk price and the fair value losses on dairy cows.
Market DependencyKey risks include reliance on China Mengniu, outbreak of diseases, food safety issues, raw milk price and raw material cost fluctuations, and ESG concerns.
Pricing StrategyCMD’s average selling price declined by 10.5% y/y in 1H24, better than the 11.9% decline in industry price.